Evaluation Summary

Scope

This evaluation summary is for the public la_liga_score_predictor release bundle.

Competition scope:

Spanish La Liga only

Prediction scope:

pre-match fixtures only

What the Model Predicts

expected home goals
expected away goals
final scoreline
home / draw / away probabilities
confidence level
abstain / score-range signal for fragile matches

Evaluation Snapshot

Artifact-era selection snapshot:

exact-score rate: 0.2056
outcome accuracy: 0.6177
recent-window exact-score rate: 0.1535
recent-window outcome accuracy: 0.5307
selection method: decode_sweep_no_retrain_recent_guardrails

These are offline selection metrics from the model-development process. They are useful for context, but they are not a guarantee of future live performance.

How to Read the Numbers

exact-score rate
- percentage of matches where the full predicted scoreline matched exactly
outcome accuracy
- percentage of matches where the winner/draw direction was correct
recent-window metrics
- the same measurements on more recent data slices
- these matter because football prediction quality can drift over time

What This Does Not Mean

These numbers do not mean:

the model is validated for leagues outside Spanish La Liga
the model is validated for in-play prediction
the model will reproduce the same scores on every new match window forever

Practical Expectation for Developers

The most realistic use of this package is:

a pre-match prediction input for a football product
a confidence-aware signal, not a certainty engine
something to pair with clear product wording around uncertainty

For most products, the most useful fields are:

predicted_score
result_probabilities
confidence_level
abstain_recommended
predicted_score_range when present

Recommendation

If you use this model publicly:

show confidence clearly
surface low-confidence fixtures carefully
avoid presenting exact scores as guarantees
keep the competition scope explicit: Spanish La Liga only