| # Evaluation Summary |
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| ## Scope |
| This evaluation summary is for the public `la_liga_score_predictor` release bundle. |
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| Competition scope: |
| - Spanish La Liga only |
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| Prediction scope: |
| - pre-match fixtures only |
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| ## What the Model Predicts |
| - expected home goals |
| - expected away goals |
| - final scoreline |
| - home / draw / away probabilities |
| - confidence level |
| - abstain / score-range signal for fragile matches |
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| ## Evaluation Snapshot |
| Artifact-era selection snapshot: |
| - exact-score rate: `0.2056` |
| - outcome accuracy: `0.6177` |
| - recent-window exact-score rate: `0.1535` |
| - recent-window outcome accuracy: `0.5307` |
| - selection method: `decode_sweep_no_retrain_recent_guardrails` |
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| These are offline selection metrics from the model-development process. |
| They are useful for context, but they are not a guarantee of future live performance. |
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| ## How to Read the Numbers |
| - `exact-score rate` |
| - percentage of matches where the full predicted scoreline matched exactly |
| - `outcome accuracy` |
| - percentage of matches where the winner/draw direction was correct |
| - `recent-window` metrics |
| - the same measurements on more recent data slices |
| - these matter because football prediction quality can drift over time |
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| ## What This Does Not Mean |
| These numbers do not mean: |
| - the model is validated for leagues outside Spanish La Liga |
| - the model is validated for in-play prediction |
| - the model will reproduce the same scores on every new match window forever |
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| ## Practical Expectation for Developers |
| The most realistic use of this package is: |
| - a pre-match prediction input for a football product |
| - a confidence-aware signal, not a certainty engine |
| - something to pair with clear product wording around uncertainty |
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| For most products, the most useful fields are: |
| - `predicted_score` |
| - `result_probabilities` |
| - `confidence_level` |
| - `abstain_recommended` |
| - `predicted_score_range` when present |
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| ## Recommendation |
| If you use this model publicly: |
| - show confidence clearly |
| - surface low-confidence fixtures carefully |
| - avoid presenting exact scores as guarantees |
| - keep the competition scope explicit: Spanish La Liga only |
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