{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5875668266232669}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90. Wealth 1.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7614874117773833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.12. Wealth 1.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47755446699060455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.12; W@1.97. Wealth 1.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5031837812705673}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.12; W@1.97; L@2.02. Wealth 1.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5855254606088138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.76 (win pays 3.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.12; W@1.97; L@2.02; L@1.96. Wealth 0.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18075940557296835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.12; W@1.97; L@2.02; L@1.96; L@4.76. Wealth 0.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7920174412349965}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.74 (win pays 4.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.12; W@1.97; L@2.02; L@1.96; L@4.76; W@1.31. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1582558178797541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; L@2.02; L@1.96; L@4.76; W@1.31; L@5.74. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4086754174215447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; L@1.96; L@4.76; W@1.31; L@5.74; W@2.08. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.76623250778658}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.96; L@4.76; W@1.31; L@5.74; W@2.08; W@1.31. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6692396631533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; W@1.31; L@5.74; W@2.08; W@1.31; L@1.31. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4028848413099103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@5.74; W@2.08; W@1.31; L@1.31; W@2.56. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37612544238074463}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.74; W@2.08; W@1.31; L@1.31; W@2.56; L@2.38. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5629941851074272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.84 (win pays 2.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; W@1.31; L@1.31; W@2.56; L@2.38; L@1.83. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2555516134178581}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@1.31; W@2.56; L@2.38; L@1.83; W@3.84. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8274796357341749}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; W@2.56; L@2.38; L@1.83; W@3.84; W@1.11. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7618539183046531}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.56; L@2.38; L@1.83; W@3.84; W@1.11; L@1.38. Wealth 0.804 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7827417517371488}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; L@1.83; W@3.84; W@1.11; L@1.38; W@1.30. Wealth 0.816 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7995339793211671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; W@3.84; W@1.11; L@1.38; W@1.30; W@1.27. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5487859921316656}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.30 (win pays 5.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.84; W@1.11; L@1.38; W@1.30; W@1.27; W@1.75. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17664010068386735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; L@1.38; W@1.30; W@1.27; W@1.75; L@6.30. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6759274438984495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.30; W@1.27; W@1.75; L@6.30; W@1.27. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23602447154350653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.27; W@1.75; L@6.30; W@1.27; L@4.83. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.760966445995342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@1.75; L@6.30; W@1.27; L@4.83; W@1.25. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39878964391645844}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@6.30; W@1.27; L@4.83; W@1.25; W@2.52. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8033935746152}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.97 (win pays 2.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.30; W@1.27; L@4.83; W@1.25; W@2.52; L@1.06. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24573483607980706}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@4.83; W@1.25; W@2.52; L@1.06; L@3.97. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7051165606686238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.32 (win pays 2.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.83; W@1.25; W@2.52; L@1.06; L@3.97; W@1.42. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.288964803594871}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@2.52; L@1.06; L@3.97; W@1.42; L@3.32. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5513329023277846}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.06; L@3.97; W@1.42; L@3.32; L@1.73. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4611347467529793}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.06; L@3.97; W@1.42; L@3.32; L@1.73; L@2.48. Wealth 0.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6699371927505277}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.97; W@1.42; L@3.32; L@1.73; L@2.48; L@1.53. Wealth 0.672 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4381523049348218}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@3.32; L@1.73; L@2.48; L@1.53; L@2.57. Wealth 0.605 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8156567369072948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.32; L@1.73; L@2.48; L@1.53; L@2.57; W@1.13. Wealth 0.605 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.651960132996786}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.96 (win pays 1.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; L@2.48; L@1.53; L@2.57; W@1.13; W@1.59. Wealth 0.623 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2920382265494613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; L@1.53; L@2.57; W@1.13; W@1.59; L@2.96. Wealth 0.623 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7381181720108727}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; L@2.57; W@1.13; W@1.59; L@2.96; W@1.20. Wealth 0.623 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6114925046263442}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; W@1.13; W@1.59; L@2.96; W@1.20; W@1.54. Wealth 0.623 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5896705984054348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@1.59; L@2.96; W@1.20; W@1.54; W@1.76. Wealth 0.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.684821061906928}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; L@2.96; W@1.20; W@1.54; W@1.76; W@1.60. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7893484030717318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.70 (win pays 3.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.96; W@1.20; W@1.54; W@1.76; W@1.60; L@1.38. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.182656566567721}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.54; W@1.76; W@1.60; L@1.38; L@4.70. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32399884124628797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.96 (win pays 2.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.76; W@1.60; L@1.38; L@4.70; L@2.80. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2662078071330519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.60; L@1.38; L@4.70; L@2.80; L@3.96. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8068389008052297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.60 (win pays 2.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@1.38; L@4.70; L@2.80; L@3.96; W@1.25. Wealth 0.571 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28387687605942813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; L@4.70; L@2.80; L@3.96; W@1.25; L@3.60. Wealth 0.571 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8220496419183232}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.53 (win pays 3.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.70; L@2.80; L@3.96; W@1.25; L@3.60; W@1.35. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22890189420600898}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; L@3.96; W@1.25; L@3.60; W@1.35; L@4.53. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7539664644431143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.55 (win pays 2.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.96; W@1.25; L@3.60; W@1.35; L@4.53; L@1.44. Wealth 0.504 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28809779888222253}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.82 (win pays 3.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.60; W@1.35; L@4.53; L@1.44; L@3.55. Wealth 0.504 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21737197433963043}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.60; W@1.35; L@4.53; L@1.44; L@3.55; L@4.82. Wealth 0.504 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37901774555285894}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@4.53; L@1.44; L@3.55; L@4.82; L@2.81. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26305862886289944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.53; L@1.44; L@3.55; L@4.82; L@2.81; L@3.26. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8113631708647886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; L@3.55; L@4.82; L@2.81; L@3.26; W@1.19. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6100707392895135}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.55; L@4.82; L@2.81; L@3.26; W@1.19; L@1.44. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7313867725842287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.82; L@2.81; L@3.26; W@1.19; L@1.44; W@1.32. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3005404457466655}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; L@3.26; W@1.19; L@1.44; W@1.32; W@3.08. Wealth 0.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6769124954569039}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; W@1.19; L@1.44; W@1.32; W@3.08; W@1.51. Wealth 0.491 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6842266659810369}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@1.44; W@1.32; W@3.08; W@1.51; W@1.30. Wealth 0.491 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7844746557801799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; W@1.32; W@3.08; W@1.51; W@1.30; L@1.19. Wealth 0.491 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.583946421798261}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@3.08; W@1.51; W@1.30; L@1.19; W@1.55. Wealth 0.491 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6476170872375735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.08; W@1.51; W@1.30; L@1.19; W@1.55; L@1.36. Wealth 0.491 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7280367471914928}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.30; L@1.19; W@1.55; L@1.36; W@1.45. Wealth 0.513 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6802219344675414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@1.19; W@1.55; L@1.36; W@1.45; W@1.33. Wealth 0.513 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6738320940285435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; W@1.55; L@1.36; W@1.45; W@1.33; L@1.66. Wealth 0.410 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6011651361164323}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@1.36; W@1.45; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@1.77. Wealth 0.369 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7401175467891103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; W@1.45; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@1.77; W@1.46. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6816461256965641}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@1.77; W@1.46; W@1.58. Wealth 0.439 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4147262301535747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@1.66; L@1.77; W@1.46; W@1.58; L@2.35. Wealth 0.439 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4212630473012119}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; L@1.77; W@1.46; W@1.58; L@2.35; W@2.41. Wealth 0.439 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7314484713883943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; W@1.46; W@1.58; L@2.35; W@2.41; L@1.54. Wealth 0.351 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8450642011240243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@1.58; L@2.35; W@2.41; L@1.54; W@1.06. Wealth 0.351 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7944003614974527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@2.35; W@2.41; L@1.54; W@1.06; W@1.12. Wealth 0.351 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2737652913958272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.97 (win pays 2.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; W@2.41; L@1.54; W@1.06; W@1.12; L@3.73. Wealth 0.351 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28339007371067937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.41; L@1.54; W@1.06; W@1.12; L@3.73; W@3.97. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4813818114300157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@1.06; W@1.12; L@3.73; W@3.97; W@1.79. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6538239073970029}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; W@1.12; L@3.73; W@3.97; W@1.79; L@1.51. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7914267544813821}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; L@3.73; W@3.97; W@1.79; L@1.51; W@1.17. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23743446752436598}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.73; W@3.97; W@1.79; L@1.51; W@1.17; W@3.62. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7523329763203346}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.97; W@1.79; L@1.51; W@1.17; W@3.62; W@1.32. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33610541438637365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; L@1.51; W@1.17; W@3.62; W@1.32; L@3.00. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5253456556788875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; W@1.17; W@3.62; W@1.32; L@3.00; L@1.84. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2755598845817444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.66 (win pays 2.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@3.62; W@1.32; L@3.00; L@1.84; L@3.23. Wealth 0.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31146702761077166}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.62; W@1.32; L@3.00; L@1.84; L@3.23; L@3.66. Wealth 0.383 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4981695309536607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.69 (win pays 3.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@3.00; L@1.84; L@3.23; L@3.66; L@2.26. Wealth 0.344 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19647875295229528}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.00; L@1.84; L@3.23; L@3.66; L@2.26; L@4.69. Wealth 0.344 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6826716651604514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; L@3.23; L@3.66; L@2.26; L@4.69; L@1.61. Wealth 0.293 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6270336835156821}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.23; L@3.66; L@2.26; L@4.69; L@1.61; W@1.71. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6795674854090519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.66; L@2.26; L@4.69; L@1.61; W@1.71; W@1.32. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8056502096566456}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.26; L@4.69; L@1.61; W@1.71; W@1.32; W@1.11. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8257993963592016}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.69; L@1.61; W@1.71; W@1.32; W@1.11; W@1.24. Wealth 0.321 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6419893759123685}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.61; W@1.71; W@1.32; W@1.11; W@1.24; W@1.62. Wealth 0.331 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.440561903514489}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; W@1.32; W@1.11; W@1.24; W@1.62; L@2.40. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2963261855048744}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.11; W@1.24; W@1.62; L@2.40; W@3.43. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6594894458109901}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; W@1.24; W@1.62; L@2.40; W@3.43; W@1.30. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6543112556074031}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.62; L@2.40; W@3.43; W@1.30; W@1.54. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5439543094640108}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@2.40; W@3.43; W@1.30; W@1.54; W@1.87. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5917510385120228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.40; W@3.43; W@1.30; W@1.54; W@1.87; L@1.72. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.305537819659085}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.43; W@1.30; W@1.54; W@1.87; L@1.72; L@2.97. Wealth 0.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6752008175674422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47607132194279667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4342901066159812}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@2.34. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4163011092799751}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@2.34; W@2.38. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7287732572085963}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@2.34; W@2.38; L@1.32. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46310217663964026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@2.34; W@2.38; L@1.32; L@2.30. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5404780783563784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@2.34; W@2.38; L@1.32; L@2.30; L@1.94. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44444051735695056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@2.38; L@1.32; L@2.30; L@1.94; W@2.04. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8493411288358711}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.38; L@1.32; L@2.30; L@1.94; W@2.04; W@1.13. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5569994176674098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@2.30; L@1.94; W@2.04; W@1.13; W@2.04. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7690790230459795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.30; L@1.94; W@2.04; W@1.13; W@2.04; W@1.30. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7565903878203736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@2.04; W@1.13; W@2.04; W@1.30; W@1.25. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.729634242107752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; W@1.13; W@2.04; W@1.30; W@1.25; L@1.51. Wealth 0.793 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4706468060086011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@2.04; W@1.30; W@1.25; L@1.51; W@2.04. Wealth 0.793 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6445701399263649}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; W@1.30; W@1.25; L@1.51; W@2.04; L@1.68. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7222009549887487}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.25; L@1.51; W@2.04; L@1.68; W@1.36. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6003501302455538}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.51; W@2.04; L@1.68; W@1.36; W@1.60. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4835759158022398}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; W@2.04; L@1.68; W@1.36; W@1.60; L@2.08. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3523966530203495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; L@1.68; W@1.36; W@1.60; L@2.08; W@2.67. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44604603903105267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; W@1.36; W@1.60; L@2.08; W@2.67; W@2.42. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3749995582810992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.60; L@2.08; W@2.67; W@2.42; L@2.88. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6094686361488556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@2.08; W@2.67; W@2.42; L@2.88; W@1.70. Wealth 0.751 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3299058812093761}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.08; W@2.67; W@2.42; L@2.88; W@1.70; W@2.97. Wealth 0.751 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4589325365304119}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.67; W@2.42; L@2.88; W@1.70; W@2.97; W@2.27. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34833198375077645}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.74 (win pays 2.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.42; L@2.88; W@1.70; W@2.97; W@2.27; W@3.27. Wealth 0.890 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2655334875640404}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.21 (win pays 2.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.88; W@1.70; W@2.97; W@2.27; W@3.27; W@3.74. Wealth 0.890 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33874815586415874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@2.97; W@2.27; W@3.27; W@3.74; L@3.21. Wealth 0.845 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4344185889239891}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; W@2.27; W@3.27; W@3.74; L@3.21; L@2.25. Wealth 0.845 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7754436000828471}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; W@3.27; W@3.74; L@3.21; L@2.25; W@1.35. Wealth 0.890 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5702433776548064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.27; W@3.74; L@3.21; L@2.25; W@1.35; L@1.90. Wealth 0.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23004999829009354}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.74; L@3.21; L@2.25; W@1.35; L@1.90; L@4.11. Wealth 0.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7905663226675611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.21; L@2.25; W@1.35; L@1.90; L@4.11; W@1.45. Wealth 0.909 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.549103904369053}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@1.35; L@1.90; L@4.11; W@1.45; W@2.07. Wealth 1.055 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5090140679541737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.90; L@4.11; W@1.45; W@2.07; W@1.68. Wealth 1.055 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7460367633281018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@4.11; W@1.45; W@2.07; W@1.68; W@1.44. Wealth 1.125 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24255611738021338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.25 (win pays 2.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.11; W@1.45; W@2.07; W@1.68; W@1.44; L@3.73. Wealth 1.125 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34489252851570734}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@2.07; W@1.68; W@1.44; L@3.73; L@3.25. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4322773762816169}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; W@1.68; W@1.44; L@3.73; L@3.25; W@1.97. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.709644118799121}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@1.44; L@3.73; L@3.25; W@1.97; W@1.49. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.80745388200307}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.33 (win pays 3.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; L@3.73; L@3.25; W@1.97; W@1.49; L@1.15. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23231300785235032}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.73; L@3.25; W@1.97; W@1.49; L@1.15; L@4.33. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7426351297892976}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.82 (win pays 1.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.25; W@1.97; W@1.49; L@1.15; L@4.33; W@1.18. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3689578345829476}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; W@1.49; L@1.15; L@4.33; W@1.18; L@2.82. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35505793174851297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@1.15; L@4.33; W@1.18; L@2.82; L@3.03. Wealth 1.065 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6574447132512902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.15; L@4.33; W@1.18; L@2.82; L@3.03; W@1.61. Wealth 1.130 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8240393228661372}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.33; W@1.18; L@2.82; L@3.03; W@1.61; W@1.29. Wealth 1.196 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47849977500816965}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@2.82; L@3.03; W@1.61; W@1.29; W@2.32. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3638437781298095}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.10 (win pays 4.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.82; L@3.03; W@1.61; W@1.29; W@2.32; W@2.40. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19414600022009496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.03; W@1.61; W@1.29; W@2.32; W@2.40; L@5.10. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.795769433962046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.70 (win pays 3.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.29; W@2.32; W@2.40; L@5.10; W@1.17. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23741206765999384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.23 (win pays 4.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@2.32; W@2.40; L@5.10; W@1.17; L@4.70. Wealth 1.286 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19660652134190748}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; W@2.40; L@5.10; W@1.17; L@4.70; W@5.23. Wealth 1.286 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5152040731492827}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.40; L@5.10; W@1.17; L@4.70; W@5.23; W@1.86. Wealth 1.286 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3354485935224544}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.10; W@1.17; L@4.70; W@5.23; W@1.86; L@3.26. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37392346362661044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.92 (win pays 3.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@4.70; W@5.23; W@1.86; L@3.26; W@2.31. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20732429933837826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.70; W@5.23; W@1.86; L@3.26; W@2.31; L@4.92. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3765402031474554}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.23; W@1.86; L@3.26; W@2.31; L@4.92; L@2.71. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7119448619312422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; L@3.26; W@2.31; L@4.92; L@2.71; W@1.43. Wealth 1.248 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2661548727254948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; W@2.31; L@4.92; L@2.71; W@1.43; W@3.89. Wealth 1.248 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.531462103146604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; L@4.92; L@2.71; W@1.43; W@3.89; W@2.01. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5291889631859766}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.92; L@2.71; W@1.43; W@3.89; W@2.01; W@2.00. Wealth 1.376 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7225204752713364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.71; W@1.43; W@3.89; W@2.01; W@2.00; W@1.56. Wealth 1.530 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7444086154509837}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.48 (win pays 2.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@3.89; W@2.01; W@2.00; W@1.56; W@1.51. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2847462291339026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.89; W@2.01; W@2.00; W@1.56; W@1.51; W@3.48. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49092049703696006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.84 (win pays 2.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; W@2.00; W@1.56; W@1.51; W@3.48; W@2.05. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2487957260076712}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; W@1.56; W@1.51; W@3.48; W@2.05; W@3.84. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7157464251872929}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@1.51; W@3.48; W@2.05; W@3.84; W@1.32. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7598891078117268}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.36 (win pays 2.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@3.48; W@2.05; W@3.84; W@1.32; W@1.18. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2657784372901769}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.95 (win pays 1.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.48; W@2.05; W@3.84; W@1.32; W@1.18; W@3.36. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30158133697702705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; W@3.84; W@1.32; W@1.18; W@3.36; L@2.95. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34661520524263667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.95 (win pays 1.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.84; W@1.32; W@1.18; W@3.36; L@2.95; L@2.48. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32908671208204865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.18; W@3.36; L@2.95; L@2.48; L@2.95. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7926479541639683}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.96 (win pays 2.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@3.36; L@2.95; L@2.48; L@2.95; W@1.19. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24766635936980586}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.36; L@2.95; L@2.48; L@2.95; W@1.19; W@3.96. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6486538727285277}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.95; L@2.48; L@2.95; W@1.19; W@3.96; L@1.53. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6370382639201204}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.96 (win pays 1.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; L@2.95; W@1.19; W@3.96; L@1.53; W@1.39. Wealth 1.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38208569688108607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.95; W@1.19; W@3.96; L@1.53; W@1.39; L@2.96. Wealth 1.602 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5781281050865885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@3.96; L@1.53; W@1.39; L@2.96; W@1.51. Wealth 1.602 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6660424787557705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.96; L@1.53; W@1.39; L@2.96; W@1.51; W@1.58. Wealth 1.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7189987931269132}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.39; L@2.96; W@1.51; W@1.58; L@1.35. Wealth 1.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3362292914747537}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@2.96; W@1.51; W@1.58; L@1.35; L@2.93. Wealth 1.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41101169001102644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.96; W@1.51; W@1.58; L@1.35; L@2.93; L@2.75. Wealth 1.525 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4798482809587137}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.50 (win pays 2.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.58; L@1.35; L@2.93; L@2.75; W@2.05. Wealth 1.525 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.247872352487323}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@1.35; L@2.93; L@2.75; W@2.05; L@3.50. Wealth 1.525 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7116348164998617}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; L@2.93; L@2.75; W@2.05; L@3.50; W@1.29. Wealth 1.525 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3627474938061309}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; L@2.75; W@2.05; L@3.50; W@1.29; L@2.97. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2805993509590694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.91 (win pays 1.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.75; W@2.05; L@3.50; W@1.29; L@2.97; L@3.14. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3574552220558185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@3.50; W@1.29; L@2.97; L@3.14; L@2.91. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3273929689441063}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.12 (win pays 3.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.50; W@1.29; L@2.97; L@3.14; L@2.91; L@2.92. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25793351622637006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@2.97; L@3.14; L@2.91; L@2.92; W@4.12. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3274836998683658}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; L@3.14; L@2.91; L@2.92; W@4.12; W@2.78. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5737045921421718}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.14; L@2.91; L@2.92; W@4.12; W@2.78; W@2.00. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5709132734493805}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.62 (win pays 4.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.91; L@2.92; W@4.12; W@2.78; W@2.00; W@1.86. Wealth 1.738 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1529988109260306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.92; W@4.12; W@2.78; W@2.00; W@1.86; L@5.62. Wealth 1.738 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3832903413543125}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.12; W@2.78; W@2.00; W@1.86; L@5.62; L@2.27. Wealth 1.738 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45464604070508385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.78; W@2.00; W@1.86; L@5.62; L@2.27; W@2.00. Wealth 1.738 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8225247473388079}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; W@1.86; L@5.62; L@2.27; W@2.00; W@1.36. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37263559168466814}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; L@5.62; L@2.27; W@2.00; W@1.36; W@2.30. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5932501788192862}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.62; L@2.27; W@2.00; W@1.36; W@2.30; L@1.48. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3848166964715042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; W@2.00; W@1.36; W@2.30; L@1.48; L@2.47. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5329929602521847}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.55854906110607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.96 (win pays 5.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03. Wealth 1.155 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16059252371633548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@6.96. Wealth 1.155 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6351502169069144}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.33 (win pays 5.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@6.96; W@1.72. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17471155160593377}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@6.96; W@1.72; L@6.33. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7562534293263469}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@6.96; W@1.72; L@6.33; W@1.28. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45990012844621975}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@6.96; W@1.72; L@6.33; W@1.28; L@1.98. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7581968409524559}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.96; W@1.72; L@6.33; W@1.28; L@1.98; L@1.48. Wealth 1.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5027982915070798}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@6.33; W@1.28; L@1.98; L@1.48; L@1.75. Wealth 1.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5554145403194598}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.33; W@1.28; L@1.98; L@1.48; L@1.75; W@1.56. Wealth 1.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8158962789563279}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@1.98; L@1.48; L@1.75; W@1.56; L@1.39. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5866268165933478}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.63 (win pays 5.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@1.48; L@1.75; W@1.56; L@1.39; L@1.82. Wealth 0.645 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1598146874434696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; L@1.75; W@1.56; L@1.39; L@1.82; L@6.63. Wealth 0.645 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.832593243788454}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.88 (win pays 3.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; W@1.56; L@1.39; L@1.82; L@6.63; W@1.22. Wealth 0.652 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18969468468134465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@1.39; L@1.82; L@6.63; W@1.22; L@4.88. Wealth 0.652 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41703430542520226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; L@1.82; L@6.63; W@1.22; L@4.88; W@2.40. Wealth 0.652 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.784656416731744}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@6.63; W@1.22; L@4.88; W@2.40; W@1.45. Wealth 0.740 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.751731694084614}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.63; W@1.22; L@4.88; W@2.40; W@1.45; W@1.25. Wealth 0.740 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38380793927808243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@4.88; W@2.40; W@1.45; W@1.25; W@2.69. Wealth 0.740 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7150782393499299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.13 (win pays 2.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.88; W@2.40; W@1.45; W@1.25; W@2.69; W@1.42. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3308650882154687}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.40; W@1.45; W@1.25; W@2.69; W@1.42; L@3.13. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8235773373961396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.25; W@2.69; W@1.42; L@3.13; W@1.39. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8291091675911159}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@2.69; W@1.42; L@3.13; W@1.39; L@1.10. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5853358211566477}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.69; W@1.42; L@3.13; W@1.39; L@1.10; W@1.72. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2381164961707996}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@3.13; W@1.39; L@1.10; W@1.72; L@3.73. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24930815273213158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; W@1.39; L@1.10; W@1.72; L@3.73; W@3.43. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5583288295901064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.10; W@1.72; L@3.73; W@3.43; W@1.75. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6152121454415871}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.30 (win pays 2.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.10; W@1.72; L@3.73; W@3.43; W@1.75; L@1.52. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3224489903694987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@3.73; W@3.43; W@1.75; L@1.52; L@3.30. Wealth 0.830 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42585564510096263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.67 (win pays 3.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.73; W@3.43; W@1.75; L@1.52; L@3.30; W@2.35. Wealth 0.830 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24578510057082376}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.43; W@1.75; L@1.52; L@3.30; W@2.35; L@4.67. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8212260578507986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@1.52; L@3.30; W@2.35; L@4.67; W@1.04. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4803729535263339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.30; W@2.35; L@4.67; W@1.04; W@2.14. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7176692543241703}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.30; W@2.35; L@4.67; W@1.04; W@2.14; W@1.52. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5906667577928087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.35; L@4.67; W@1.04; W@2.14; W@1.52; W@1.66. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5076209506646462}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.48 (win pays 2.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.67; W@1.04; W@2.14; W@1.52; W@1.66; L@1.74. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32988658446815144}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; W@2.14; W@1.52; W@1.66; L@1.74; L@3.48. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4404359680050043}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@1.52; W@1.66; L@1.74; L@3.48; L@2.46. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5114380140779439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.22 (win pays 2.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.66; L@1.74; L@3.48; L@2.46; W@2.17. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3492757408776045}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@1.74; L@3.48; L@2.46; W@2.17; L@3.22. Wealth 0.834 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8047968922027241}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.74; L@3.48; L@2.46; W@2.17; L@3.22; L@1.41. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5734552668620533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.48; L@2.46; W@2.17; L@3.22; L@1.41; W@1.52. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2798181424005377}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; W@2.17; L@3.22; L@1.41; W@1.52; L@3.43. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7256533869130313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.17; L@3.22; L@1.41; W@1.52; L@3.43; W@1.56. Wealth 0.649 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41051447160300214}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.22; L@1.41; W@1.52; L@3.43; W@1.56; L@2.77. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6067536377637945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; W@1.52; L@3.43; W@1.56; L@2.77; L@1.55. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2079314099350656}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.96 (win pays 2.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@3.43; W@1.56; L@2.77; L@1.55; L@4.26. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25322433776346853}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.43; W@1.56; L@2.77; L@1.55; L@4.26; L@3.96. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7497875516717151}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@2.77; L@1.55; L@4.26; L@3.96; L@1.16. Wealth 0.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4718582007390344}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.77; L@1.55; L@4.26; L@3.96; L@1.16; L@2.29. Wealth 0.555 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7717842302706335}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; L@4.26; L@3.96; L@1.16; L@2.29; W@1.41. Wealth 0.600 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6508668753940061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.26; L@3.96; L@1.16; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.40. Wealth 0.600 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5895026416487283}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.96; L@1.16; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.40; W@1.92. Wealth 0.682 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40340176155186935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.16; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.40; W@1.92; L@2.72. Wealth 0.648 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6085414665836723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.40; W@1.92; L@2.72; W@1.54. Wealth 0.648 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7661164782683252}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.40; W@1.92; L@2.72; W@1.54; W@1.34. Wealth 0.670 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5576974602532763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@1.92; L@2.72; W@1.54; W@1.34; W@1.84. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4356668472780306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; L@2.72; W@1.54; W@1.34; W@1.84; L@2.37. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7201962337786645}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.60 (win pays 3.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.72; W@1.54; W@1.34; W@1.84; L@2.37; W@1.38. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23917432833571334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.34; W@1.84; L@2.37; W@1.38; L@4.60. Wealth 0.664 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5062715186550933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.84; L@2.37; W@1.38; L@4.60; W@1.73. Wealth 0.664 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8256057992158707}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; L@2.37; W@1.38; L@4.60; W@1.73; L@1.35. Wealth 0.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4858953963203603}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; W@1.38; L@4.60; W@1.73; L@1.35; W@1.83. Wealth 0.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4354847763675521}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@4.60; W@1.73; L@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.39. Wealth 0.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4841350103612643}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.60; W@1.73; L@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.39; W@2.06. Wealth 0.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5075373521258373}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.02 (win pays 2.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; L@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.39; W@2.06; L@2.22. Wealth 0.447 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3740618713103552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.10 (win pays 4.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.39; W@2.06; L@2.22; W@3.02. Wealth 0.492 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20870968022248132}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@2.39; W@2.06; L@2.22; W@3.02; L@5.10. Wealth 0.492 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8054706580521873}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.39; W@2.06; L@2.22; W@3.02; L@5.10; W@1.15. Wealth 0.492 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8237941291003034}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; L@2.22; W@3.02; L@5.10; W@1.15; L@1.31. Wealth 0.345 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.827403976358361}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@3.02; L@5.10; W@1.15; L@1.31; L@1.29. Wealth 0.276 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40083645136769575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.02; L@5.10; W@1.15; L@1.31; L@1.29; W@2.19. Wealth 0.276 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8470151702307352}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.30 (win pays 2.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.10; W@1.15; L@1.31; L@1.29; W@2.19; L@1.20. Wealth 0.248 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.348828062427798}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@1.31; L@1.29; W@2.19; L@1.20; W@3.30. Wealth 0.277 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23859435618577923}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@1.29; W@2.19; L@1.20; W@3.30; W@4.71. Wealth 0.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7730536097037163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.67 (win pays 3.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; W@2.19; L@1.20; W@3.30; W@4.71; W@1.33. Wealth 0.339 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2142984986914428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.19; L@1.20; W@3.30; W@4.71; W@1.33; L@4.67. Wealth 0.339 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6654370770968728}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; W@3.30; W@4.71; W@1.33; L@4.67; W@1.57. Wealth 0.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7782462856568753}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.30; W@4.71; W@1.33; L@4.67; W@1.57; W@1.14. Wealth 0.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8074418277523087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.71; W@1.33; L@4.67; W@1.57; W@1.14; W@1.12. Wealth 0.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8062166568053115}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.67; W@1.57; W@1.14; W@1.12; W@1.33. Wealth 0.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.645183574689775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.67; W@1.57; W@1.14; W@1.12; W@1.33; W@1.77. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47196756689559627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; W@1.14; W@1.12; W@1.33; W@1.77; L@2.13. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.631181476484641}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@1.12; W@1.33; W@1.77; L@2.13; W@1.53. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4059572515846921}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.87 (win pays 2.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; W@1.33; W@1.77; L@2.13; W@1.53; W@2.46. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.253926659014604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.77; L@2.13; W@1.53; W@2.46; L@3.87. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39071367007792435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.13; W@1.53; W@2.46; L@3.87; W@2.65. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5383010105535166}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@1.53; W@2.46; L@3.87; W@2.65; W@1.83. Wealth 0.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8257697306120143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@2.46; L@3.87; W@2.65; W@1.83; W@1.27. Wealth 0.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7592218971027932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.46; L@3.87; W@2.65; W@1.83; W@1.27; W@1.25. Wealth 0.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6270433236364575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.87; W@2.65; W@1.83; W@1.27; W@1.25; L@1.45. Wealth 0.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7162624053339038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.83; W@1.27; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.47. Wealth 0.486 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6137567400450763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@1.27; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.47; W@1.67. Wealth 0.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3076108232921495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.79 (win pays 3.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.47; W@1.67; L@3.47. Wealth 0.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2114524820988094}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.47; W@1.67; L@3.47; L@4.79. Wealth 0.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7714283211752329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.47; W@1.67; L@3.47; L@4.79; W@1.12. Wealth 0.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4156373778389447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.67; L@3.47; L@4.79; W@1.12; L@2.28. Wealth 0.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6361382706447548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@3.47; L@4.79; W@1.12; L@2.28; L@1.64. Wealth 0.453 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39177112798943775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.16 (win pays 5.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; L@4.79; W@1.12; L@2.28; L@1.64; L@2.63. Wealth 0.453 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16227673009016064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.79; W@1.12; L@2.28; L@1.64; L@2.63; W@6.16. Wealth 0.453 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6098307730512369}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5841874560154989}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49626185280448587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.78. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6493102858885511}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.78; W@1.76. Wealth 1.153 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5559396275333013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.78; W@1.76; L@1.76. Wealth 1.153 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6724952308824086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.78; W@1.76; L@1.76; L@1.32. Wealth 1.153 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5780954357573808}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.78; W@1.76; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.92. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.601312540532263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; W@1.76; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.92; L@1.52. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.361292993156483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.92; L@1.52; L@2.68. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4604991626441419}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.92; L@1.52; L@2.68; L@2.37. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47502689362905803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.11 (win pays 2.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@1.92; L@1.52; L@2.68; L@2.37; L@1.91. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2824299269918633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; L@1.52; L@2.68; L@2.37; L@1.91; L@3.11. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.722072223112826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@2.68; L@2.37; L@1.91; L@3.11; W@1.57. Wealth 1.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2809363520654655}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.68; L@2.37; L@1.91; L@3.11; W@1.57; L@3.90. Wealth 1.043 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7310162388059507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; L@1.91; L@3.11; W@1.57; L@3.90; W@1.28. Wealth 1.043 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3864906729584644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@3.11; W@1.57; L@3.90; W@1.28; W@2.45. Wealth 1.043 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4450614243038058}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.11; W@1.57; L@3.90; W@1.28; W@2.45; L@2.48. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8388322330587239}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@3.90; W@1.28; W@2.45; L@2.48; W@1.09. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8152460956072001}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.90; W@1.28; W@2.45; L@2.48; W@1.09; L@1.07. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5062623291264203}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.29 (win pays 2.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@2.45; L@2.48; W@1.09; L@1.07; W@2.15. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.286320300242935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@2.48; W@1.09; L@1.07; W@2.15; L@3.29. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3846141664244402}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; W@1.09; L@1.07; W@2.15; L@3.29; L@2.39. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.747317965906537}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.93 (win pays 2.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; L@1.07; W@2.15; L@3.29; L@2.39; W@1.40. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22434220067492797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.07; W@2.15; L@3.29; L@2.39; W@1.40; L@3.93. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5253591864105075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.15; L@3.29; L@2.39; W@1.40; L@3.93; W@2.18. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5374971235717111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.11 (win pays 2.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.29; L@2.39; W@1.40; L@3.93; W@2.18; W@1.67. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28271020357219145}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.73 (win pays 5.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; W@1.40; L@3.93; W@2.18; W@1.67; L@3.11. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15817315507038826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@3.93; W@2.18; W@1.67; L@3.11; L@6.73. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5249067082314105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.93; W@2.18; W@1.67; L@3.11; L@6.73; L@1.88. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7085108399217186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; W@1.67; L@3.11; L@6.73; L@1.88; W@1.23. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2866228775466645}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@3.11; L@6.73; L@1.88; W@1.23; L@3.23. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7470784651295369}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.11; L@6.73; L@1.88; W@1.23; L@3.23; W@1.42. Wealth 1.366 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35538518940449604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.73; L@1.88; W@1.23; L@3.23; W@1.42; W@2.75. Wealth 1.366 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34360237452060105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; W@1.23; L@3.23; W@1.42; W@2.75; L@2.89. Wealth 1.366 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2236834724193634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; L@3.23; W@1.42; W@2.75; L@2.89; L@4.04. Wealth 1.366 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6789136945784581}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.23; W@1.42; W@2.75; L@2.89; L@4.04; W@1.69. Wealth 1.554 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7121190747815545}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@2.75; L@2.89; L@4.04; W@1.69; W@1.58. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3985828299087853}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.87 (win pays 4.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.75; L@2.89; L@4.04; W@1.69; W@1.58; W@2.61. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15195335369054638}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.03 (win pays 0.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.89; L@4.04; W@1.69; W@1.58; W@2.61; L@5.87. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8434461068940887}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.93 (win pays 3.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.04; W@1.69; W@1.58; W@2.61; L@5.87; W@1.03. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19666950881047726}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; W@1.58; W@2.61; L@5.87; W@1.03; L@4.93. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.466183858028974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@2.61; L@5.87; W@1.03; L@4.93; L@1.94. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5243791387075549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.21 (win pays 2.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.61; L@5.87; W@1.03; L@4.93; L@1.94; W@1.67. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2835443418189195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@1.03; L@4.93; L@1.94; W@1.67; L@3.21. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7218210181794209}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.03; L@4.93; L@1.94; W@1.67; L@3.21; L@1.19. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5237755666599871}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.93; L@1.94; W@1.67; L@3.21; L@1.19; W@1.87. Wealth 1.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7508524985177302}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@1.67; L@3.21; L@1.19; W@1.87; W@1.46. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7713674284512348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@3.21; L@1.19; W@1.87; W@1.46; L@1.22. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7537507201864907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.21; L@1.19; W@1.87; W@1.46; L@1.22; W@1.32. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33467240635193996}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.61 (win pays 2.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; W@1.87; W@1.46; L@1.22; W@1.32; L@2.97. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24881711676180626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.46; L@1.22; W@1.32; L@2.97; L@3.61. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8194250512387263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.83 (win pays 1.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; L@1.22; W@1.32; L@2.97; L@3.61; W@1.38. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3392738065487999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; W@1.32; L@2.97; L@3.61; W@1.38; L@2.83. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34325955125556085}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.97 (win pays 4.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.97; L@3.61; W@1.38; L@2.83; L@2.55. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15399467176952647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; L@3.61; W@1.38; L@2.83; L@2.55; L@5.97. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5903219147925471}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.61; W@1.38; L@2.83; L@2.55; L@5.97; L@1.72. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5090528606745792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@2.83; L@2.55; L@5.97; L@1.72; W@1.76. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3817872371987893}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.83; L@2.55; L@5.97; L@1.72; W@1.76; W@2.27. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4190120266102826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.55; L@5.97; L@1.72; W@1.76; W@2.27; L@2.27. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49813148656803874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.97; L@1.72; W@1.76; W@2.27; L@2.27; W@1.83. Wealth 2.113 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6493399090492722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.72; W@1.76; W@2.27; L@2.27; W@1.83; L@1.66. Wealth 1.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6183106609825363}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@2.27; L@2.27; W@1.83; L@1.66; W@1.72. Wealth 2.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3304850263976944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; L@2.27; W@1.83; L@1.66; W@1.72; W@2.68. Wealth 2.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6098856748906801}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; W@1.83; L@1.66; W@1.72; W@2.68; L@1.76. Wealth 1.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7368052658597564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; L@1.66; W@1.72; W@2.68; L@1.76; W@1.17. Wealth 1.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4733892048907177}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.72; W@2.68; L@1.76; W@1.17; L@1.90. Wealth 1.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.521927188942042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@2.68; L@1.76; W@1.17; L@1.90; L@2.02. Wealth 1.744 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6642455120928304}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.68; L@1.76; W@1.17; L@1.90; L@2.02; W@1.61. Wealth 1.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3406233540595289}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.87 (win pays 1.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@1.17; L@1.90; L@2.02; W@1.61; L@2.88. Wealth 1.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3235709299710138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.57 (win pays 4.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.90; L@2.02; W@1.61; L@2.88; L@2.87. Wealth 1.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17704191692231802}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@2.02; W@1.61; L@2.88; L@2.87; W@5.57. Wealth 1.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8339210253869668}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; W@1.61; L@2.88; L@2.87; W@5.57; W@1.12. Wealth 1.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7806187648605825}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@2.88; L@2.87; W@5.57; W@1.12; W@1.45. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41154852287943033}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.88; L@2.87; W@5.57; W@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.19. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6226763690570384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.87; W@5.57; W@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.19; W@1.37. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6419884163546491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.57; W@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.19; W@1.37; W@1.50. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3380122530328054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.33 (win pays 4.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.19; W@1.37; W@1.50; W@2.77. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18297921397309197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@2.19; W@1.37; W@1.50; W@2.77; L@5.33. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28751940908794793}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.68 (win pays 2.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; W@1.37; W@1.50; W@2.77; L@5.33; L@3.69. Wealth 2.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29092430959032556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.50; W@2.77; L@5.33; L@3.69; W@3.68. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5602988821307452}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@2.77; L@5.33; L@3.69; W@3.68; L@1.78. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47417675312668395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.77; L@5.33; L@3.69; W@3.68; L@1.78; W@2.11. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2626329683440778}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.33; L@3.69; W@3.68; L@1.78; W@2.11; W@3.57. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6979773164121482}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.02 (win pays 2.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@3.68; L@1.78; W@2.11; W@3.57; W@1.27. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31811395389858466}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.68; L@1.78; W@2.11; W@3.57; W@1.27; L@3.02. Wealth 2.379 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8305554699583417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.78; W@2.11; W@3.57; W@1.27; L@3.02; W@1.33. Wealth 2.616 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31725358936123504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.11; W@3.57; W@1.27; L@3.02; W@1.33; W@3.58. Wealth 2.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6133867916155542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.57; W@1.27; L@3.02; W@1.33; W@3.58; W@1.67. Wealth 3.053 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5673775087143424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@3.02; W@1.33; W@3.58; W@1.67; W@1.55. Wealth 3.053 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42583272291587115}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.02; W@1.33; W@3.58; W@1.67; W@1.55; L@2.62. Wealth 2.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3133105462804602}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@3.58; W@1.67; W@1.55; L@2.62; W@2.74. Wealth 2.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8223739567177967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.58; W@1.67; W@1.55; L@2.62; W@2.74; W@1.04. Wealth 2.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4993546420212237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@1.55; L@2.62; W@2.74; W@1.04; L@1.75. Wealth 2.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4090005120296347}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@2.62; W@2.74; W@1.04; L@1.75; L@2.70. Wealth 2.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8005784596663603}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.62; W@2.74; W@1.04; L@1.75; L@2.70; L@1.29. Wealth 2.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8100065173612053}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.74; W@1.04; L@1.75; L@2.70; L@1.29; W@1.18. Wealth 2.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3123984769740962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; L@1.75; L@2.70; L@1.29; W@1.18; L@3.27. Wealth 2.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3894803012657615}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; L@2.70; L@1.29; W@1.18; L@3.27; L@2.33. Wealth 2.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30283782312891705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; L@1.29; W@1.18; L@3.27; L@2.33; W@3.26. Wealth 2.479 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3565442112545032}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; W@1.18; L@3.27; L@2.33; W@3.26; L@3.07. Wealth 2.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2501361608326793}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3647882430463065}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7830821045061006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.43. Wealth 1.128 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4931928573743829}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.43; W@1.89. Wealth 1.128 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5550665063986061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.43; W@1.89; L@2.04. Wealth 0.958 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22985655265672947}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.43; W@1.89; L@2.04; L@4.66. Wealth 0.958 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.64765711715866}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@1.43; W@1.89; L@2.04; L@4.66; W@1.77. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2998519310710689}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 7.00 (win pays 6.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@1.89; L@2.04; L@4.66; W@1.77; L@2.92. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16189192179016285}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@2.04; L@4.66; W@1.77; L@2.92; L@7.00. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7326883901252855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; L@4.66; W@1.77; L@2.92; L@7.00; W@1.53. Wealth 1.221 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7342235568633017}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.66; W@1.77; L@2.92; L@7.00; W@1.53; L@1.30. Wealth 1.221 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.478070015797334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.92; L@7.00; W@1.53; L@1.30; L@2.34. Wealth 1.099 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38187546628098223}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.04 (win pays 4.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.92; L@7.00; W@1.53; L@1.30; L@2.34; L@2.64. Wealth 1.099 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2275033530993933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.00; W@1.53; L@1.30; L@2.34; L@2.64; L@5.04. Wealth 1.044 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5220421921811925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@1.30; L@2.34; L@2.64; L@5.04; W@1.70. Wealth 1.044 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6492334659170579}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.30; L@2.34; L@2.64; L@5.04; W@1.70; L@1.69. Wealth 0.888 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6358268273016587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; L@2.64; L@5.04; W@1.70; L@1.69; L@1.77. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7611823395206742}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.64; L@5.04; W@1.70; L@1.69; L@1.77; W@1.26. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.312090175991784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.04; W@1.70; L@1.69; L@1.77; W@1.26; L@3.04. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44886683184343723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@1.69; L@1.77; W@1.26; L@3.04; L@2.27. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4788725785687735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@1.77; W@1.26; L@3.04; L@2.27; L@2.15. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7781507984569777}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; W@1.26; L@3.04; L@2.27; L@2.15; W@1.20. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.823405310508847}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@3.04; L@2.27; L@2.15; W@1.20; W@1.21. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7209066328819382}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.04; L@2.27; L@2.15; W@1.20; W@1.21; W@1.44. Wealth 0.748 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6700230594123642}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; L@2.15; W@1.20; W@1.21; W@1.44; W@1.68. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4217596090908704}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; W@1.20; W@1.21; W@1.44; W@1.68; L@2.42. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6660368433139677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.21; W@1.44; W@1.68; L@2.42; L@1.69. Wealth 0.680 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.474531656413967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.37 (win pays 4.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.44; W@1.68; L@2.42; L@1.69; L@2.27. Wealth 0.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17462614600064796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.24 (win pays 2.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.68; L@2.42; L@1.69; L@2.27; L@5.37. Wealth 0.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33902323623448394}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; L@2.42; L@1.69; L@2.27; L@5.37; L@3.24. Wealth 0.614 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6077336421939312}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; L@1.69; L@2.27; L@5.37; L@3.24; W@1.83. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6719215169377454}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@2.27; L@5.37; L@3.24; W@1.83; L@1.55. Wealth 0.656 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48543620138417987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; L@5.37; L@3.24; W@1.83; L@1.55; W@2.32. Wealth 0.742 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6849407584155311}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.37; L@3.24; W@1.83; L@1.55; W@2.32; W@1.37. Wealth 0.742 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6779635621437428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.24; W@1.83; L@1.55; W@2.32; W@1.37; W@1.58. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7104092811886429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; L@1.55; W@2.32; W@1.37; W@1.58; W@1.58. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46167633743938274}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.66 (win pays 2.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; W@2.32; W@1.37; W@1.58; W@1.58; W@1.96. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2633647491673497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; W@1.37; W@1.58; W@1.58; W@1.96; L@3.66. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.605984558296091}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.58; W@1.58; W@1.96; L@3.66; L@1.89. Wealth 0.745 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7783358566759189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.58; W@1.96; L@3.66; L@1.89; W@1.26. Wealth 0.745 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8359075784824679}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.96; L@3.66; L@1.89; W@1.26; W@1.23. Wealth 0.771 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3686501067720135}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; L@3.66; L@1.89; W@1.26; W@1.23; W@2.98. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3301453073069053}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.66; L@1.89; W@1.26; W@1.23; W@2.98; W@3.43. Wealth 0.951 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5520735333699466}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; W@1.26; W@1.23; W@2.98; W@3.43; W@1.92. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7466468036598186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@1.23; W@2.98; W@3.43; W@1.92; W@1.19. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49481081809687677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; W@2.98; W@3.43; W@1.92; W@1.19; L@2.29. Wealth 0.895 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6353921778745342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@3.43; W@1.92; W@1.19; L@2.29; W@1.63. Wealth 0.924 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2906454134543882}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.43; W@1.92; W@1.19; L@2.29; W@1.63; W@3.73. Wealth 1.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7805737918542811}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; W@1.19; L@2.29; W@1.63; W@3.73; W@1.24. Wealth 1.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5331189747896662}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@2.29; W@1.63; W@3.73; W@1.24; W@2.05. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5731199153307368}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.29; W@1.63; W@3.73; W@1.24; W@2.05; W@1.67. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48585943951051835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; W@3.73; W@1.24; W@2.05; W@1.67; W@1.91. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8478857539164281}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.28 (win pays 2.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.73; W@1.24; W@2.05; W@1.67; W@1.91; W@1.11. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29615913179371534}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@2.05; W@1.67; W@1.91; W@1.11; L@3.28. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8431871713638999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.41 (win pays 2.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; W@1.67; W@1.91; W@1.11; L@3.28; W@1.21. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2780657033170202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@1.91; W@1.11; L@3.28; W@1.21; L@3.41. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6172019291418875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.91; W@1.11; L@3.28; W@1.21; L@3.41; L@1.39. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6212197152409701}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.53 (win pays 3.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; L@3.28; W@1.21; L@3.41; L@1.39; W@1.52. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2305030494688644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.28; W@1.21; L@3.41; L@1.39; W@1.52; W@4.53. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6864451929521711}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.67 (win pays 2.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; L@3.41; L@1.39; W@1.52; W@4.53; W@1.46. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28843190154159926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.41; L@1.39; W@1.52; W@4.53; W@1.46; W@3.67. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4636959549839027}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@1.52; W@4.53; W@1.46; W@3.67; L@1.91. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40948359516434274}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@4.53; W@1.46; W@3.67; L@1.91; L@2.36. Wealth 1.185 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5562579509981151}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.53; W@1.46; W@3.67; L@1.91; L@2.36; L@2.03. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39239880932383314}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@3.67; L@1.91; L@2.36; L@2.03; L@2.72. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35223321409768926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.65 (win pays 5.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.67; L@1.91; L@2.36; L@2.03; L@2.72; L@2.94. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16585178436308814}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@2.36; L@2.03; L@2.72; L@2.94; W@6.65. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6720679101499041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@2.03; L@2.72; L@2.94; W@6.65; L@1.57. Wealth 0.861 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38483983393654947}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; L@2.72; L@2.94; W@6.65; L@1.57; L@2.60. Wealth 0.861 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5013953236479902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.72; L@2.94; W@6.65; L@1.57; L@2.60; L@1.73. Wealth 0.861 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7345663921472319}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.94; W@6.65; L@1.57; L@2.60; L@1.73; W@1.39. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6645571617849068}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.65; L@1.57; L@2.60; L@1.73; W@1.39; W@1.43. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30134753334957903}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.57; L@2.60; L@1.73; W@1.39; W@1.43; W@2.85. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7500712940717587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; L@1.73; W@1.39; W@1.43; W@2.85; L@1.42. Wealth 0.746 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5064084569850014}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; W@1.39; W@1.43; W@2.85; L@1.42; W@2.05. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5886400182161565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.43; W@2.85; L@1.42; W@2.05; L@1.69. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3725380525317557}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@2.85; L@1.42; W@2.05; L@1.69; L@2.75. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41246496691288026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.84 (win pays 1.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.85; L@1.42; W@2.05; L@1.69; L@2.75; L@2.41. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3875392976816832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; W@2.05; L@1.69; L@2.75; L@2.41; L@2.84. Wealth 0.746 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7771296943029333}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.69; L@2.75; L@2.41; L@2.84; W@1.35. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23734201156779722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.20 (win pays 2.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@2.75; L@2.41; L@2.84; W@1.35; W@4.83. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31983007209377423}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.75; L@2.41; L@2.84; W@1.35; W@4.83; L@3.20. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3921589366465411}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.41; L@2.84; W@1.35; W@4.83; L@3.20; L@2.93. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4038903502329061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.84; W@1.35; W@4.83; L@3.20; L@2.93; L@2.18. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7852794658203618}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@4.83; L@3.20; L@2.93; L@2.18; W@1.22. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8079179039605006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.83; L@3.20; L@2.93; L@2.18; W@1.22; W@1.39. Wealth 0.941 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6417064118489914}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.20; L@2.93; L@2.18; W@1.22; W@1.39; W@1.72. Wealth 1.043 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40692090567899}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; L@2.18; W@1.22; W@1.39; W@1.72; L@2.73. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34285792626491557}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; W@1.22; W@1.39; W@1.72; L@2.73; L@2.64. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3458391289626549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.02 (win pays 5.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@1.39; W@1.72; L@2.73; L@2.64; L@2.67. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16511905336404825}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.15 (win pays 2.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.72; L@2.73; L@2.64; L@2.67; W@6.02. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3557805793478018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@2.73; L@2.64; L@2.67; W@6.02; W@3.15. Wealth 1.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6849097528634527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@2.64; L@2.67; W@6.02; W@3.15; W@1.44. Wealth 1.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7960163432187297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.64; L@2.67; W@6.02; W@3.15; W@1.44; L@1.40. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8403998103730189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; W@6.02; W@3.15; W@1.44; L@1.40; W@1.19. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6373914863248772}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.01 (win pays 4.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.02; W@3.15; W@1.44; L@1.40; W@1.19; W@1.56. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18487448218017863}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.15; W@1.44; L@1.40; W@1.19; W@1.56; W@5.01. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6592278734599146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; L@1.40; W@1.19; W@1.56; W@5.01; W@1.65. Wealth 0.843 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.617631657587195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; W@1.19; W@1.56; W@5.01; W@1.65; W@1.72. Wealth 0.903 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8292911422832967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.56; W@5.01; W@1.65; W@1.72; W@1.34. Wealth 0.995 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8105395641015933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.05 (win pays 0.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8376668497572931}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6849054928786267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.27. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7451899824251522}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.27; W@1.17. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6423297089649364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.27; W@1.17; L@1.79. Wealth 0.800 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6714702881298117}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.27; W@1.17; L@1.79; W@1.60. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6909613951514928}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.27; W@1.17; L@1.79; W@1.60; W@1.50. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5234205914183251}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.60 (win pays 3.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@1.17; L@1.79; W@1.60; W@1.50; L@1.68. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21688902184206818}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.79; W@1.60; W@1.50; L@1.68; L@4.60. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5419881717476898}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.79; W@1.60; W@1.50; L@1.68; L@4.60; W@1.70. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7487326832498316}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@1.50; L@1.68; L@4.60; W@1.70; W@1.29. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8390528303585986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.68; L@4.60; W@1.70; W@1.29; W@1.04. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5953298133068633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; L@4.60; W@1.70; W@1.29; W@1.04; W@1.45. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6677518991689092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.60; W@1.70; W@1.29; W@1.04; W@1.45; W@1.37. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8046244592425624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@1.29; W@1.04; W@1.45; W@1.37; W@1.25. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7248058835426332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.85 (win pays 5.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.04; W@1.45; W@1.37; W@1.25; W@1.28. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1643023359810271}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.39 (win pays 3.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; W@1.45; W@1.37; W@1.25; W@1.28; L@6.85. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24551156220222883}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.37; W@1.25; W@1.28; L@6.85; L@4.39. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8155702969657842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.25; W@1.28; L@6.85; L@4.39; W@1.38. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3603154006702528}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.67 (win pays 5.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.28; L@6.85; L@4.39; W@1.38; W@2.90. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15950970258904915}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@6.85; L@4.39; W@1.38; W@2.90; L@6.67. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6959627938335341}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.85; L@4.39; W@1.38; W@2.90; L@6.67; W@1.58. Wealth 1.053 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7990963070028219}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.39; W@1.38; W@2.90; L@6.67; W@1.58; W@1.40. Wealth 1.180 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4221782839192393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@2.90; L@6.67; W@1.58; W@1.40; W@2.19. Wealth 1.180 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2773016094959965}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.90; L@6.67; W@1.58; W@1.40; W@2.19; W@3.89. Wealth 1.350 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.827230172121384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.67; W@1.58; W@1.40; W@2.19; W@3.89; W@1.30. Wealth 1.474 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8368141498639932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.40; W@2.19; W@3.89; W@1.30; W@1.30. Wealth 1.606 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41322145534991184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@2.19; W@3.89; W@1.30; W@1.30; W@2.58. Wealth 1.733 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3569800132632599}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.19; W@3.89; W@1.30; W@1.30; W@2.58; L@3.10. Wealth 1.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6735204454630834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.89; W@1.30; W@1.30; W@2.58; L@3.10; L@1.35. Wealth 1.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4601384085603172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.30; W@2.58; L@3.10; L@1.35; L@2.35. Wealth 1.564 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3570293197254958}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@2.58; L@3.10; L@1.35; L@2.35; L@2.93. Wealth 1.564 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3449607174373278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.58; L@3.10; L@1.35; L@2.35; L@2.93; L@2.48. Wealth 1.564 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7384179689221865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.10; L@1.35; L@2.35; L@2.93; L@2.48; L@1.21. Wealth 1.564 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4802422365830238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; L@2.35; L@2.93; L@2.48; L@1.21; L@1.90. Wealth 1.564 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7576528657273764}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; L@2.93; L@2.48; L@1.21; L@1.90; L@1.48. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7016609828721545}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.49 (win pays 2.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; L@2.48; L@1.21; L@1.90; L@1.48; W@1.58. Wealth 1.395 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3182096941734768}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; L@1.21; L@1.90; L@1.48; W@1.58; L@3.49. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41697492958709803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; L@1.90; L@1.48; W@1.58; L@3.49; W@2.36. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3372146227017616}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@1.48; W@1.58; L@3.49; W@2.36; W@2.76. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6962655735747766}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.94 (win pays 2.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; W@1.58; L@3.49; W@2.36; W@2.76; W@1.30. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24661660615681413}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@3.49; W@2.36; W@2.76; W@1.30; L@3.94. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6995061236267628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.49; W@2.36; W@2.76; W@1.30; L@3.94; W@1.27. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6247143277344276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.36; W@2.76; W@1.30; L@3.94; W@1.27; L@1.44. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7140679790982638}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.76; W@1.30; L@3.94; W@1.27; L@1.44; W@1.28. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6180814690809416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@3.94; W@1.27; L@1.44; W@1.28; L@1.79. Wealth 1.126 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7154214564436799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.94; W@1.27; L@1.44; W@1.28; L@1.79; W@1.35. Wealth 1.126 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6815618916225877}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.41 (win pays 5.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@1.44; W@1.28; L@1.79; W@1.35; L@1.64. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17556496519425147}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.34 (win pays 5.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; W@1.28; L@1.79; W@1.35; L@1.64; L@6.41. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1711305844245216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@1.79; W@1.35; L@1.64; L@6.41; L@6.34. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5748985776068039}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.79; W@1.35; L@1.64; L@6.41; L@6.34; L@1.69. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6552102964376111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.64; L@6.41; L@6.34; L@1.69; L@1.41. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6004515294263828}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; L@6.41; L@6.34; L@1.69; L@1.41; L@1.88. Wealth 0.766 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4433353221255154}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.41; L@6.34; L@1.69; L@1.41; L@1.88; W@2.16. Wealth 0.766 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5053490650376589}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.34; L@1.69; L@1.41; L@1.88; W@2.16; W@1.70. Wealth 0.766 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5939142383728888}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@1.41; L@1.88; W@2.16; W@1.70; L@1.84. Wealth 0.689 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32936931905393874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; L@1.88; W@2.16; W@1.70; L@1.84; L@2.92. Wealth 0.689 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27684107737430574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; W@2.16; W@1.70; L@1.84; L@2.92; L@3.08. Wealth 0.689 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7218423588474179}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; W@1.70; L@1.84; L@2.92; L@3.08; W@1.42. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46089200361759786}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@1.84; L@2.92; L@3.08; W@1.42; W@2.28. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6470152857982081}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; L@2.92; L@3.08; W@1.42; W@2.28; L@1.69. Wealth 0.637 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5919575865576017}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.92; L@3.08; W@1.42; W@2.28; L@1.69; L@1.82. Wealth 0.573 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8101808290528452}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.08; W@1.42; W@2.28; L@1.69; L@1.82; W@1.28. Wealth 0.597 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7741547330231022}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@2.28; L@1.69; L@1.82; W@1.28; W@1.44. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32074201258576907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; L@1.69; L@1.82; W@1.28; W@1.44; L@3.27. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33205236597804144}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.57 (win pays 3.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@1.82; W@1.28; W@1.44; L@3.27; W@2.56. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20203165384464739}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; W@1.28; W@1.44; L@3.27; W@2.56; L@4.57. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7640030225817162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.56 (win pays 3.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@1.44; L@3.27; W@2.56; L@4.57; W@1.45. Wealth 0.736 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.249315278542436}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; L@3.27; W@2.56; L@4.57; W@1.45; L@4.56. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33512669517537086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.27; W@2.56; L@4.57; W@1.45; L@4.56; W@3.27. Wealth 0.779 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7523959984166909}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.05 (win pays 3.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.56; L@4.57; W@1.45; L@4.56; W@3.27; W@1.38. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27354422536451684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.57; W@1.45; L@4.56; W@3.27; W@1.38; L@4.05. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.541672789389889}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.56; W@3.27; W@1.38; L@4.05; W@1.67. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.509057339354691}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.49 (win pays 1.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.56; W@3.27; W@1.38; L@4.05; W@1.67; L@1.94. Wealth 0.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4406046883030772}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.27; W@1.38; L@4.05; W@1.67; L@1.94; L@2.49. Wealth 0.729 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5359720125995597}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@4.05; W@1.67; L@1.94; L@2.49; W@2.09. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6102590806541768}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.05; W@1.67; L@1.94; L@2.49; W@2.09; W@1.58. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28442561932634786}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@1.94; L@2.49; W@2.09; W@1.58; L@3.09. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4698002343633967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; L@2.49; W@2.09; W@1.58; L@3.09; L@2.41. Wealth 0.728 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6836303000101942}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.49; W@2.09; W@1.58; L@3.09; L@2.41; L@1.66. Wealth 0.582 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47510331559091823}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.09; W@1.58; L@3.09; L@2.41; L@1.66; W@2.39. Wealth 0.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7768264191099672}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@3.09; L@2.41; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@1.25. Wealth 0.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8277379353038216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@2.41; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@1.25; W@1.17. Wealth 0.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5129141740418361}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.02 (win pays 3.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.41; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@1.25; W@1.17; W@1.93. Wealth 0.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25694933624292055}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@2.39; W@1.25; W@1.17; W@1.93; L@4.02. Wealth 0.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5796288972577774}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.39; W@1.25; W@1.17; W@1.93; L@4.02; L@1.80. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3815513733845396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.03 (win pays 5.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.17; W@1.93; L@4.02; L@1.80; W@2.97. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15169065996828032}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.93; L@4.02; L@1.80; W@2.97; L@6.03. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5338411862242339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.93; L@4.02; L@1.80; W@2.97; L@6.03; W@1.86. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8234133121331344}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.02; L@1.80; W@2.97; L@6.03; W@1.86; W@1.04. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3827509927376548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@2.97; L@6.03; W@1.86; W@1.04; L@2.51. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37987184128836377}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.40 (win pays 3.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; L@6.03; W@1.86; W@1.04; L@2.51; W@2.31. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2336680319556349}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.79 (win pays 2.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.03; W@1.86; W@1.04; L@2.51; W@2.31; L@4.40. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2561981709016284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; W@1.04; L@2.51; W@2.31; L@4.40; L@3.79. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4714517878214626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; L@2.51; W@2.31; L@4.40; L@3.79; L@1.89. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7212040250927785}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.51; W@2.31; L@4.40; L@3.79; L@1.89; W@1.28. Wealth 0.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7648810093911808}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; L@4.40; L@3.79; L@1.89; W@1.28; W@1.49. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5599195148435107}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.00 (win pays 3.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.40; L@3.79; L@1.89; W@1.28; W@1.49; W@1.58. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2353598506028259}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.35 (win pays 3.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.79; L@1.89; W@1.28; W@1.49; W@1.58; L@4.00. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20322360409344079}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; W@1.28; W@1.49; W@1.58; L@4.00; L@4.35. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6540974460822364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.41 (win pays 3.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20706948612853143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.95 (win pays 1.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33221097439524827}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; L@2.95. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4616320129478749}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; L@2.95; W@2.02. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7584906532469641}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; L@2.95; W@2.02; W@1.39. Wealth 1.059 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7799309582172851}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; L@2.95; W@2.02; W@1.39; W@1.30. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48195630026217207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; L@2.95; W@2.02; W@1.39; W@1.30; L@2.14. Wealth 1.021 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6508822220468683}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.95; W@2.02; W@1.39; W@1.30; L@2.14; W@1.74. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7340462632080913}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.02; W@1.39; W@1.30; L@2.14; W@1.74; W@1.33. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29944576286922703}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.97 (win pays 2.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.30; L@2.14; W@1.74; W@1.33; L@3.27. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21820770996249814}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.23 (win pays 4.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.14; W@1.74; W@1.33; L@3.27; L@3.97. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20166304311318994}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@1.74; W@1.33; L@3.27; L@3.97; L@5.23. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6327630611418472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.74; W@1.33; L@3.27; L@3.97; L@5.23; W@1.35. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3149151622623686}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@3.27; L@3.97; L@5.23; W@1.35; L@2.90. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3838137079295275}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.27; L@3.97; L@5.23; W@1.35; L@2.90; L@2.58. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7380490612433936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.97; L@5.23; W@1.35; L@2.90; L@2.58; W@1.41. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4940695919420599}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.23; W@1.35; L@2.90; L@2.58; W@1.41; W@2.16. Wealth 1.291 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7612249319126198}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.87 (win pays 3.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@2.90; L@2.58; W@1.41; W@2.16; W@1.27. Wealth 1.291 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22130477263178128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.90; L@2.58; W@1.41; W@2.16; W@1.27; L@4.87. Wealth 1.291 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7540850597479689}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.58; W@1.41; W@2.16; W@1.27; L@4.87; W@1.32. Wealth 1.291 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5768829411483529}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@2.16; W@1.27; L@4.87; W@1.32; W@1.90. Wealth 1.407 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.585751980142999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; W@1.27; L@4.87; W@1.32; W@1.90; L@1.66. Wealth 1.407 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8270679297555183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@4.87; W@1.32; W@1.90; L@1.66; W@1.31. Wealth 1.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5610926039555983}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.87; W@1.32; W@1.90; L@1.66; W@1.31; W@2.03. Wealth 1.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43478251305510196}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.57 (win pays 3.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.90; L@1.66; W@1.31; W@2.03; W@2.14. Wealth 1.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2222127611011187}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.66; W@1.31; W@2.03; W@2.14; L@4.57. Wealth 1.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.816958661096046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.31; W@2.03; W@2.14; L@4.57; W@1.17. Wealth 1.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6124811838074292}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@2.03; W@2.14; L@4.57; W@1.17; L@1.78. Wealth 1.597 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22754678937353465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@2.14; L@4.57; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@4.44. Wealth 1.597 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5861406754414119}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; L@4.57; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@4.44; W@1.95. Wealth 1.824 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5130125354361911}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.57; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@4.44; W@1.95; L@1.91. Wealth 1.824 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6467824283987318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.78; W@4.44; W@1.95; L@1.91; L@1.57. Wealth 1.733 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.799464752087144}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.41 (win pays 3.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.78; W@4.44; W@1.95; L@1.91; L@1.57; L@1.42. Wealth 1.213 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.223319350048861}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.44; W@1.95; L@1.91; L@1.57; L@1.42; L@4.41. Wealth 1.213 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18866870398809713}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; L@1.91; L@1.57; L@1.42; L@4.41; W@4.83. Wealth 1.213 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44702922988852456}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@1.57; L@1.42; L@4.41; W@4.83; W@2.06. Wealth 1.213 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7114205225552118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.57; L@1.42; L@4.41; W@4.83; W@2.06; W@1.43. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5776102466312589}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; L@4.41; W@4.83; W@2.06; W@1.43; W@1.58. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3383707462640738}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; W@4.83; W@2.06; W@1.43; W@1.58; W@3.01. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3416928243310092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.70 (win pays 2.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.83; W@2.06; W@1.43; W@1.58; W@3.01; L@2.76. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28618522207422714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.43; W@1.58; W@3.01; L@2.76; W@3.70. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7543113578124321}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@1.58; W@3.01; L@2.76; W@3.70; W@1.40. Wealth 1.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7019255746444842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@3.01; L@2.76; W@3.70; W@1.40; W@1.24. Wealth 1.314 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7776099578316036}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.01; L@2.76; W@3.70; W@1.40; W@1.24; W@1.42. Wealth 1.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4127048434760824}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; W@3.70; W@1.40; W@1.24; W@1.42; W@2.78. Wealth 1.677 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40537126769141574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.70; W@1.40; W@1.24; W@1.42; W@2.78; L@2.66. Wealth 1.594 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45470867823956385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@1.24; W@1.42; W@2.78; L@2.66; W@2.34. Wealth 1.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4418579405511063}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.42 (win pays 2.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.42; W@2.78; L@2.66; W@2.34; L@1.96. Wealth 1.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2925701001123504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@2.78; L@2.66; W@2.34; L@1.96; L@3.42. Wealth 1.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7813474655013309}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.78; L@2.66; W@2.34; L@1.96; L@3.42; W@1.35. Wealth 1.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4754822585074575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; W@2.34; L@1.96; L@3.42; W@1.35; W@2.02. Wealth 1.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4083932119784369}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.31 (win pays 5.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.34; L@1.96; L@3.42; W@1.35; W@2.02; L@2.65. Wealth 1.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17902443050743103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.96; L@3.42; W@1.35; W@2.02; L@2.65; L@6.31. Wealth 1.614 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43882587694916353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.42; W@1.35; W@2.02; L@2.65; L@6.31; L@2.50. Wealth 1.534 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.357948798556167}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@2.02; L@2.65; L@6.31; L@2.50; W@2.71. Wealth 1.534 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8381426690262266}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.02; L@2.65; L@6.31; L@2.50; W@2.71; W@1.26. Wealth 1.612 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6308626958184118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.96 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; L@6.31; L@2.50; W@2.71; W@1.26; W@1.70. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8473518008090235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.31; L@2.50; W@2.71; W@1.26; W@1.70; W@1.17. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7767464799743853}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; W@2.71; W@1.26; W@1.70; W@1.17; W@1.30. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49844211643571923}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.38 (win pays 5.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.71; W@1.26; W@1.70; W@1.17; W@1.30; L@2.20. Wealth 1.552 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1557640639980425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.25 (win pays 4.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@1.70; W@1.17; W@1.30; L@2.20; L@6.38. Wealth 1.552 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2124353422957228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@1.17; W@1.30; L@2.20; L@6.38; L@5.25. Wealth 1.475 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37457286462103495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.30; L@2.20; L@6.38; L@5.25; W@2.44. Wealth 1.475 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32788461883012265}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.20; L@6.38; L@5.25; W@2.44; W@2.89. Wealth 1.475 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5492348470741714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; L@6.38; L@5.25; W@2.44; W@2.89; W@1.94. Wealth 1.544 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3647992200555432}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.38; L@5.25; W@2.44; W@2.89; W@1.94; L@2.34. Wealth 1.544 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8214504006853492}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.25; W@2.44; W@2.89; W@1.94; L@2.34; W@1.11. Wealth 1.544 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7795279719830113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.44; W@2.89; W@1.94; L@2.34; W@1.11; W@1.45. Wealth 1.751 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.625355959497151}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.16 (win pays 4.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.89; W@1.94; L@2.34; W@1.11; W@1.45; W@1.82. Wealth 1.966 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.199599084625054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@2.34; W@1.11; W@1.45; W@1.82; L@5.16. Wealth 1.966 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8313468561194118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@1.11; W@1.45; W@1.82; L@5.16; W@1.25. Wealth 2.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3629992345794706}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; W@1.45; W@1.82; L@5.16; W@1.25; L@3.07. Wealth 1.938 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42296296649421306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.82; L@5.16; W@1.25; L@3.07; L@2.37. Wealth 1.938 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44679010231500993}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.65 (win pays 3.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@5.16; W@1.25; L@3.07; L@2.37; W@2.37. Wealth 2.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2118095566229282}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.28 (win pays 3.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.16; W@1.25; L@3.07; L@2.37; W@2.37; L@4.65. Wealth 2.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22633157984657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.07; L@2.37; W@2.37; L@4.65; L@4.28. Wealth 2.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6528742975410792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.07; L@2.37; W@2.37; L@4.65; L@4.28; L@1.32. Wealth 2.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5185776850432109}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; W@2.37; L@4.65; L@4.28; L@1.32; L@2.03. Wealth 1.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7422812236927947}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.37; L@4.65; L@4.28; L@1.32; L@2.03; W@1.32. Wealth 1.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5663087199841226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.65; L@4.28; L@1.32; L@2.03; W@1.32; L@2.00. Wealth 1.672 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.430109521636184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.28; L@1.32; L@2.03; W@1.32; L@2.00; W@2.14. Wealth 1.672 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22809489997813565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@2.03; W@1.32; L@2.00; W@2.14; W@4.66. Wealth 1.672 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7873783174687405}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; W@1.32; L@2.00; W@2.14; W@4.66; W@1.38. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5911008916676043}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.00; W@2.14; W@4.66; W@1.38; W@1.60. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49350369983752784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.00; W@2.14; W@4.66; W@1.38; W@1.60; L@1.99. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4470831675795063}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@4.66; W@1.38; W@1.60; L@1.99; W@2.56. Wealth 2.081 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6800531438636129}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.40 (win pays 2.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.66; W@1.38; W@1.60; L@1.99; W@2.56; W@1.58. Wealth 2.262 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30550763946923865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.60; L@1.99; W@2.56; W@1.58; W@3.40. Wealth 2.262 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2794979726073322}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.11 (win pays 4.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@1.99; W@2.56; W@1.58; W@3.40; W@4.04. Wealth 2.607 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21883269150196677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.99; W@2.56; W@1.58; W@3.40; W@4.04; L@5.11. Wealth 2.476 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.453802960616435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.56; W@1.58; W@3.40; W@4.04; L@5.11; L@2.36. Wealth 2.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3647699447154391}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@3.40; W@4.04; L@5.11; L@2.36; W@2.33. Wealth 2.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7651587790382333}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.40; W@4.04; L@5.11; L@2.36; W@2.33; W@1.25. Wealth 2.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5269083919996387}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.04; L@5.11; L@2.36; W@2.33; W@1.25; W@1.65. Wealth 2.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8403068333148787}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.26 (win pays 4.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.11; L@2.36; W@2.33; W@1.25; W@1.65; L@1.30. Wealth 1.647 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17431852107682652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@2.33; W@1.25; W@1.65; L@1.30; W@5.26. Wealth 1.647 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5490632568378061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.53 (win pays 4.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.33; W@1.25; W@1.65; L@1.30; W@5.26; W@1.95. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1757107285762552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.65; L@1.30; W@5.26; W@1.95; L@5.53. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45691576982529647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@1.30; W@5.26; W@1.95; L@5.53; W@1.92. Wealth 1.725 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7682201527116884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.30; W@5.26; W@1.95; L@5.53; W@1.92; W@1.34. Wealth 1.784 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.320472857929782}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38100106122213706}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7707119666048657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.21. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37479271313729356}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.21; W@3.07. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30194507036568696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.21; W@3.07; W@3.56. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2941877461458563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.21; W@3.07; W@3.56; L@3.14. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5897165843710299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@1.21; W@3.07; W@3.56; L@3.14; W@1.47. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3390065833182303}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; W@3.07; W@3.56; L@3.14; W@1.47; W@2.67. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6165091441800234}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.07; W@3.56; L@3.14; W@1.47; W@2.67; L@1.85. Wealth 1.058 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4147130494334256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.56; L@3.14; W@1.47; W@2.67; L@1.85; L@2.34. Wealth 1.058 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49257627391373615}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.14; W@1.47; W@2.67; L@1.85; L@2.34; L@2.25. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3381439956019541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@2.67; L@1.85; L@2.34; L@2.25; L@2.73. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7794823952114364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.67; L@1.85; L@2.34; L@2.25; L@2.73; W@1.41. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6859320804275493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.85; L@2.34; L@2.25; L@2.73; W@1.41; L@1.31. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7656145162494282}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.68 (win pays 4.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; L@2.25; L@2.73; W@1.41; L@1.31; L@1.17. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17940421979118792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; L@2.73; W@1.41; L@1.31; L@1.17; L@5.68. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6560680509174396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.63 (win pays 4.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; W@1.41; L@1.31; L@1.17; L@5.68; W@1.39. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15797225587847175}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@1.31; L@1.17; L@5.68; W@1.39; L@5.63. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6232782716952465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@1.17; L@5.68; W@1.39; L@5.63; L@1.83. Wealth 0.875 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6829854896623992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.44 (win pays 2.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; L@5.68; W@1.39; L@5.63; L@1.83; L@1.54. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26288460680855885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.68; W@1.39; L@5.63; L@1.83; L@1.54; L@3.44. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6789016481053042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@5.63; L@1.83; L@1.54; L@3.44; L@1.38. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4839111225850439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.63; L@1.83; L@1.54; L@3.44; L@1.38; L@1.80. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44829580056935636}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.40 (win pays 2.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; L@1.54; L@3.44; L@1.38; L@1.80; L@2.19. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32835666821238857}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; L@3.44; L@1.38; L@1.80; L@2.19; L@3.40. Wealth 0.748 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.752198362284568}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.44; L@1.38; L@1.80; L@2.19; L@3.40; W@1.28. Wealth 0.748 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7183947250110843}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.94 (win pays 3.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; L@1.80; L@2.19; L@3.40; W@1.28; L@1.53. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17245802188631978}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; L@2.19; L@3.40; W@1.28; L@1.53; L@4.94. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4853071803585731}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; L@3.40; W@1.28; L@1.53; L@4.94; L@2.04. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3923427262474166}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.40; W@1.28; L@1.53; L@4.94; L@2.04; L@2.39. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6525697799603385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@1.53; L@4.94; L@2.04; L@2.39; L@1.31. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42108419311778145}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; L@4.94; L@2.04; L@2.39; L@1.31; L@2.20. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.563427183522815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.02 (win pays 3.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.94; L@2.04; L@2.39; L@1.31; L@2.20; L@1.67. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24237360289353477}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; L@2.39; L@1.31; L@2.20; L@1.67; L@4.02. Wealth 0.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4639622419423326}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; L@1.31; L@2.20; L@1.67; L@4.02; L@2.46. Wealth 0.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21787579393931053}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@2.20; L@1.67; L@4.02; L@2.46; L@4.44. Wealth 0.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30298194454769856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; L@1.67; L@4.02; L@2.46; L@4.44; W@2.90. Wealth 0.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48967145116320443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.14 (win pays 3.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.67; L@4.02; L@2.46; L@4.44; W@2.90; W@2.18. Wealth 0.571 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2663109715203944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.02; L@2.46; L@4.44; W@2.90; W@2.18; L@4.14. Wealth 0.542 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3836874445942263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; L@4.44; W@2.90; W@2.18; L@4.14; L@2.78. Wealth 0.515 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8119344920145758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.94 (win pays 2.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.44; W@2.90; W@2.18; L@4.14; L@2.78; W@1.26. Wealth 0.528 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27213744030878845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.90; W@2.18; L@4.14; L@2.78; W@1.26; W@3.94. Wealth 0.606 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.396595418979655}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@4.14; L@2.78; W@1.26; W@3.94; L@2.62. Wealth 0.606 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.704032498308184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.84 (win pays 4.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.14; L@2.78; W@1.26; W@3.94; L@2.62; L@1.60. Wealth 0.485 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1749366536887052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.78; W@1.26; W@3.94; L@2.62; L@1.60; L@5.84. Wealth 0.485 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31284599699008087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.96 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@3.94; L@2.62; L@1.60; L@5.84; L@3.43. Wealth 0.461 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7861731548879297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.94; L@2.62; L@1.60; L@5.84; L@3.43; W@1.41. Wealth 0.518 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27767613443891137}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.62; L@1.60; L@5.84; L@3.43; W@1.41; L@3.17. Wealth 0.518 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5117341370348332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; L@5.84; L@3.43; W@1.41; L@3.17; L@2.03. Wealth 0.492 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4041473173222232}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.84; L@3.43; W@1.41; L@3.17; L@2.03; L@2.73. Wealth 0.467 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7051137985574868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.43; W@1.41; L@3.17; L@2.03; L@2.73; L@1.56. Wealth 0.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5009826175556952}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@3.17; L@2.03; L@2.73; L@1.56; W@1.92. Wealth 0.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4749152772363935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.17; L@2.03; L@2.73; L@1.56; W@1.92; W@2.29. Wealth 0.398 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5120185059487052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; L@2.73; L@1.56; W@1.92; W@2.29; L@1.96. Wealth 0.398 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.50299830834405}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@1.56; W@1.92; W@2.29; L@1.96; L@2.20. Wealth 0.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3398791712699575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@1.92; W@2.29; L@1.96; L@2.20; L@2.98. Wealth 0.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8205024045692243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; W@2.29; L@1.96; L@2.20; L@2.98; W@1.39. Wealth 0.414 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.619752565645313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.29; L@1.96; L@2.20; L@2.98; W@1.39; L@1.80. Wealth 0.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3331908932832479}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.96; L@2.20; L@2.98; W@1.39; L@1.80; L@2.61. Wealth 0.352 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5251009493101002}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; L@2.98; W@1.39; L@1.80; L@2.61; L@2.05. Wealth 0.334 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7657729423940987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.98; W@1.39; L@1.80; L@2.61; L@2.05; W@1.48. Wealth 0.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3237144813176631}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.80; L@2.61; L@2.05; W@1.48; L@3.47. Wealth 0.363 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6318810370365171}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; L@2.61; L@2.05; W@1.48; L@3.47; W@1.67. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6869173232168913}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; L@2.05; W@1.48; L@3.47; W@1.67; L@1.41. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6525653262694578}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; W@1.48; L@3.47; W@1.67; L@1.41; L@1.38. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8100411783034539}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@3.47; W@1.67; L@1.41; L@1.38; W@1.15. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6427917234640245}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.29 (win pays 3.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; W@1.67; L@1.41; L@1.38; W@1.15; L@1.49. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24604553497350742}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@1.41; L@1.38; W@1.15; L@1.49; L@4.29. Wealth 0.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4872693412138769}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.06 (win pays 5.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; L@1.38; W@1.15; L@1.49; L@4.29; W@2.30. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18951014103660477}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.15; L@1.49; L@4.29; W@2.30; L@6.06. Wealth 0.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7320093384768792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@1.49; L@4.29; W@2.30; L@6.06; W@1.39. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6936959556626061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.49; L@4.29; W@2.30; L@6.06; W@1.39; L@1.32. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3551533017776728}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.29; W@2.30; L@6.06; W@1.39; L@1.32; L@2.65. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.689541996100051}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.30; L@6.06; W@1.39; L@1.32; L@2.65; W@1.29. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5212037335701207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.47 (win pays 3.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.06; W@1.39; L@1.32; L@2.65; W@1.29; L@1.79. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2132399574603221}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.32; L@2.65; W@1.29; L@1.79; W@4.47. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7563732604057447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@2.65; W@1.29; L@1.79; W@4.47; L@1.22. Wealth 0.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8286830585445552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.96 (win pays 2.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; W@1.29; L@1.79; W@4.47; L@1.22; L@1.36. Wealth 0.297 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28806635858543805}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@1.79; W@4.47; L@1.22; L@1.36; L@3.96. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31732390032377533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.79; W@4.47; L@1.22; L@1.36; L@3.96; W@2.88. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7887394161007739}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.47; L@1.22; L@1.36; L@3.96; W@2.88; W@1.14. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8415545651848884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; L@1.36; L@3.96; W@2.88; W@1.14; L@1.04. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6752354295381905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; L@3.96; W@2.88; W@1.14; L@1.04; W@1.38. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43503154327165283}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 7.10 (win pays 6.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.96; W@2.88; W@1.14; L@1.04; W@1.38; W@1.97. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15930884951600158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.88; W@1.14; L@1.04; W@1.38; W@1.97; L@7.10. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4311803174392127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@1.04; W@1.38; W@1.97; L@7.10; L@2.34. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3452475444146651}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.04; W@1.38; W@1.97; L@7.10; L@2.34; W@2.75. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6586044597578552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.97; L@7.10; L@2.34; W@2.75; W@1.33. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7379145416456819}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; L@7.10; L@2.34; W@2.75; W@1.33; W@1.30. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7311210481935114}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.05 (win pays 3.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.10; L@2.34; W@2.75; W@1.33; W@1.30; W@1.25. Wealth 0.282 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2685041491176864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.05 (win pays 4.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@2.75; W@1.33; W@1.30; W@1.25; W@4.05. Wealth 0.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20464303463164366}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.75; W@1.33; W@1.30; W@1.25; W@4.05; L@5.05. Wealth 0.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4570256804334937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.30; W@1.25; W@4.05; L@5.05; L@2.50. Wealth 0.292 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6317570718578527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.76 (win pays 4.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.25; W@4.05; L@5.05; L@2.50; W@1.68. Wealth 0.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19605531329824344}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.42 (win pays 2.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@4.05; L@5.05; L@2.50; W@1.68; L@5.76. Wealth 0.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2591945613783661}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.92 (win pays 3.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.05; L@5.05; L@2.50; W@1.68; L@5.76; W@3.42. Wealth 0.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2124548567048404}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.05; L@2.50; W@1.68; L@5.76; W@3.42; W@4.92. Wealth 0.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36665979164631446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; W@1.68; L@5.76; W@3.42; W@4.92; L@2.56. Wealth 0.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7561604089993716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; L@5.76; W@3.42; W@4.92; L@2.56; L@1.28. Wealth 0.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7393521508700907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.76; W@3.42; W@4.92; L@2.56; L@1.28; W@1.51. Wealth 0.326 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.827297381370026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8433434226810064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7194280080601443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.34. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5370539164005637}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.34; L@1.74. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5488574584967886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.34; L@1.74; L@1.76. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5548248025534332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.85 (win pays 2.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.34; L@1.74; L@1.76; W@1.96. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2748213014885173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.34; L@1.74; L@1.76; W@1.96; L@3.85. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2565947969022576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.34; L@1.74; L@1.76; W@1.96; L@3.85; W@3.45. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5798223291335465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.23 (win pays 4.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.74; L@1.76; W@1.96; L@3.85; W@3.45; W@1.60. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2073705596382705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@1.96; L@3.85; W@3.45; W@1.60; W@5.23. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38161408755549875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; L@3.85; W@3.45; W@1.60; W@5.23; L@2.33. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3592749451671522}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.85; W@3.45; W@1.60; W@5.23; L@2.33; W@2.92. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8218613383644625}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.45; W@1.60; W@5.23; L@2.33; W@2.92; W@1.11. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5831683508646377}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@5.23; L@2.33; W@2.92; W@1.11; W@1.63. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34835602013233113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.23; L@2.33; W@2.92; W@1.11; W@1.63; W@2.79. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5704851056343486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; W@2.92; W@1.11; W@1.63; W@2.79; L@1.76. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6041923666672214}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.92; W@1.11; W@1.63; W@2.79; L@1.76; W@1.58. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7138780604763889}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; W@1.63; W@2.79; L@1.76; W@1.58; W@1.37. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8317115240649128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; W@2.79; L@1.76; W@1.58; W@1.37; W@1.34. Wealth 1.323 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6873262238688397}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.79; L@1.76; W@1.58; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.27. Wealth 1.323 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2317548097115864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@1.58; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.27; L@4.04. Wealth 1.323 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45246186693253443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.81 (win pays 4.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.27; L@4.04; W@2.43. Wealth 1.418 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19536336388202946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.27; L@4.04; W@2.43; L@5.81. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38493938941490685}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.27; L@4.04; W@2.43; L@5.81; W@2.71. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4592064950693475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@4.04; W@2.43; L@5.81; W@2.71; W@1.93. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3690587455127574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.04; W@2.43; L@5.81; W@2.71; W@1.93; L@2.67. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6279101627101745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.43; L@5.81; W@2.71; W@1.93; L@2.67; W@1.37. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7961204076764756}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.81; W@2.71; W@1.93; L@2.67; W@1.37; L@1.07. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43841556792584835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.71; W@1.93; L@2.67; W@1.37; L@1.07; W@2.52. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4031900718307677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.93; L@2.67; W@1.37; L@1.07; W@2.52; W@2.35. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7984510750165396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; W@1.37; L@1.07; W@2.52; W@2.35; W@1.24. Wealth 1.449 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34355020120376417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.79 (win pays 2.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; L@1.07; W@2.52; W@2.35; W@1.24; W@3.10. Wealth 1.601 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29222924923367044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.07; W@2.52; W@2.35; W@1.24; W@3.10; L@3.79. Wealth 1.521 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6924766344894092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; W@2.35; W@1.24; W@3.10; L@3.79; W@1.62. Wealth 1.710 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5797751479558642}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.35; W@1.24; W@3.10; L@3.79; W@1.62; W@1.60. Wealth 1.710 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5729568302997755}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@3.10; L@3.79; W@1.62; W@1.60; W@1.71. Wealth 1.710 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31630981545196035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.10; L@3.79; W@1.62; W@1.60; W@1.71; W@3.27. Wealth 1.710 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5031483695534009}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.84 (win pays 1.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.79; W@1.62; W@1.60; W@1.71; W@3.27; L@2.10. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39262658694473945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; W@1.60; W@1.71; W@3.27; L@2.10; W@2.84. Wealth 1.774 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8172668331355794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@1.71; W@3.27; L@2.10; W@2.84; L@1.13. Wealth 1.774 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6165223743974162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; W@3.27; L@2.10; W@2.84; L@1.13; W@1.86. Wealth 2.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2869334334309064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.27; L@2.10; W@2.84; L@1.13; W@1.86; W@3.56. Wealth 2.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5554733840313412}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; W@2.84; L@1.13; W@1.86; W@3.56; W@1.75. Wealth 2.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7644159039511395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.84; L@1.13; W@1.86; W@3.56; W@1.75; W@1.41. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35445371866250863}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.13; W@1.86; W@3.56; W@1.75; W@1.41; W@2.70. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4812479960308954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; W@3.56; W@1.75; W@1.41; W@2.70; W@1.84. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3286658383442723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.14 (win pays 3.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.56; W@1.75; W@1.41; W@2.70; W@1.84; W@2.73. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25617125353575726}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.41; W@2.70; W@1.84; W@2.73; L@4.14. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5027861008631966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.82 (win pays 1.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@2.70; W@1.84; W@2.73; L@4.14; W@1.88. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38968139808787455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.70; W@1.84; W@2.73; L@4.14; W@1.88; W@2.82. Wealth 2.364 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6996275979487877}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; W@2.73; L@4.14; W@1.88; W@2.82; W@1.58. Wealth 2.637 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6041667377738933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.73; L@4.14; W@1.88; W@2.82; W@1.58; L@1.82. Wealth 2.373 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4231737386294011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.49 (win pays 1.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.14; W@1.88; W@2.82; W@1.58; L@1.82; W@2.11. Wealth 2.373 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4076094216609091}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; W@2.82; W@1.58; L@1.82; W@2.11; W@2.49. Wealth 2.373 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5272030527659206}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.00 (win pays 5.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.82; W@1.58; L@1.82; W@2.11; W@2.49; L@2.15. Wealth 2.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16909865498737797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@1.82; W@2.11; W@2.49; L@2.15; L@6.00. Wealth 2.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6081989401446385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; W@2.11; W@2.49; L@2.15; L@6.00; W@1.52. Wealth 2.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34174087830986566}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.11; W@2.49; L@2.15; L@6.00; W@1.52; L@2.63. Wealth 2.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7277103409844937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.49; L@2.15; L@6.00; W@1.52; L@2.63; W@1.37. Wealth 2.136 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7473897993921139}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; L@6.00; W@1.52; L@2.63; W@1.37; W@1.37. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5734155703594522}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.00; W@1.52; L@2.63; W@1.37; W@1.37; W@1.52. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7488668816079451}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@2.63; W@1.37; W@1.37; W@1.52; W@1.17. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.564941605847982}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.53 (win pays 5.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; W@1.37; W@1.37; W@1.52; W@1.17; W@1.68. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16109216643858745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.37; W@1.52; W@1.17; W@1.68; W@6.53. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7129958264595815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.52; W@1.17; W@1.68; W@6.53; W@1.41. Wealth 2.176 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7157903967141993}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.17; W@1.68; W@6.53; W@1.41; W@1.45. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8410663652222736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.62 (win pays 3.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.68; W@6.53; W@1.41; W@1.45; L@1.21. Wealth 2.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18817470361824962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.11 (win pays 4.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@6.53; W@1.41; W@1.45; L@1.21; W@4.62. Wealth 2.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16683764454808858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.53; W@1.41; W@1.45; L@1.21; W@4.62; W@5.11. Wealth 2.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5429386088773153}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.45; L@1.21; W@4.62; W@5.11; W@1.93. Wealth 2.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5377857435093293}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.41 (win pays 5.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.21; W@4.62; W@5.11; W@1.93; W@1.78. Wealth 2.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15259769721749425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; W@4.62; W@5.11; W@1.93; W@1.78; L@6.41. Wealth 2.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3844090406297678}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.62; W@5.11; W@1.93; W@1.78; L@6.41; W@2.76. Wealth 2.330 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.75668052468354}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.11; W@1.93; W@1.78; L@6.41; W@2.76; L@1.37. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31384272668869817}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.93; W@1.78; L@6.41; W@2.76; L@1.37; L@2.81. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7765467079349229}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; L@6.41; W@2.76; L@1.37; L@2.81; W@1.29. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.594665108328197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.41; W@2.76; L@1.37; L@2.81; W@1.29; W@1.90. Wealth 2.381 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3962744377573002}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.76; L@1.37; L@2.81; W@1.29; W@1.90; W@2.21. Wealth 2.381 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6589783914043794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@2.81; W@1.29; W@1.90; W@2.21; L@1.70. Wealth 2.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6738605275793647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; W@1.29; W@1.90; W@2.21; L@1.70; W@1.55. Wealth 2.135 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7770058726563508}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.61 (win pays 2.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.90; W@2.21; L@1.70; W@1.55; W@1.41. Wealth 2.309 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2991695011210199}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@2.21; L@1.70; W@1.55; W@1.41; L@3.61. Wealth 2.193 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5533917491892069}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.21; L@1.70; W@1.55; W@1.41; L@3.61; W@2.03. Wealth 2.419 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3483182661195136}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; W@1.55; W@1.41; L@3.61; W@2.03; W@2.65. Wealth 2.419 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5073257645129393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@1.41; L@3.61; W@2.03; W@2.65; W@2.20. Wealth 2.710 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5486020734701001}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@3.61; W@2.03; W@2.65; W@2.20; W@1.92. Wealth 2.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4048503692761475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.61; W@2.03; W@2.65; W@2.20; W@1.92; W@2.34. Wealth 2.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5280694763565609}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@2.65; W@2.20; W@1.92; W@2.34; W@1.94. Wealth 2.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37833358971619113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.48 (win pays 2.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; W@2.20; W@1.92; W@2.34; W@1.94; L@2.80. Wealth 2.820 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25701428735188336}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.20; W@1.92; W@2.34; W@1.94; L@2.80; L@3.48. Wealth 2.820 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.313447276652291}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; W@2.34; W@1.94; L@2.80; L@3.48; L@2.94. Wealth 2.820 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22686368321368486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.34; W@1.94; L@2.80; L@3.48; L@2.94; L@4.04. Wealth 2.820 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7342293433728728}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@2.80; L@3.48; L@2.94; L@4.04; L@1.41. Wealth 2.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3594477497508457}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; L@3.48; L@2.94; L@4.04; L@1.41; W@3.10. Wealth 2.804 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37952664818279}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.15 (win pays 5.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.48; L@2.94; L@4.04; L@1.41; W@3.10; L@2.35. Wealth 2.804 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18096365493088334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.94; L@4.04; L@1.41; W@3.10; L@2.35; W@6.15. Wealth 2.804 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4788951334933006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.04; L@1.41; W@3.10; L@2.35; W@6.15; W@2.35. Wealth 3.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.575666677897018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.93 (win pays 5.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; W@3.10; L@2.35; W@6.15; W@2.35; W@1.76. Wealth 3.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15876469456781955}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.10; L@2.35; W@6.15; W@2.35; W@1.76; L@6.93. Wealth 3.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.559737012363546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.81 (win pays 2.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; W@6.15; W@2.35; W@1.76; L@6.93; W@1.79. Wealth 3.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26229108658340133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6315074673899563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7851276750988097}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.44. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31477675902875946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.44; L@2.98. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4631729978472593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.44; L@2.98; W@1.87. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7676218891527187}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.44; L@2.98; W@1.87; W@1.19. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5706688535620493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.44; L@2.98; W@1.87; W@1.19; L@1.63. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6644502661138044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; L@2.98; W@1.87; W@1.19; L@1.63; W@1.33. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41217659515808813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.98; W@1.87; W@1.19; L@1.63; W@1.33; W@2.27. Wealth 0.700 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6024993020420675}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.19; L@1.63; W@1.33; W@2.27; W@1.78. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32667037636476876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.34 (win pays 3.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@1.63; W@1.33; W@2.27; W@1.78; W@2.65. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2459769637576935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@1.33; W@2.27; W@1.78; W@2.65; L@4.34. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26280216762533937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@2.27; W@1.78; W@2.65; L@4.34; L@4.15. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6763027142064967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; W@1.78; W@2.65; L@4.34; L@4.15; W@1.39. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5266241117913149}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; W@2.65; L@4.34; L@4.15; W@1.39; W@1.90. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5321308980933762}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.65; L@4.34; L@4.15; W@1.39; W@1.90; W@2.04. Wealth 0.791 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.433224887719303}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.34; L@4.15; W@1.39; W@1.90; W@2.04; L@2.33. Wealth 0.791 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8492650600731676}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; W@1.39; W@1.90; W@2.04; L@2.33; W@1.24. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33776001436831127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.90; W@2.04; L@2.33; W@1.24; L@2.62. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5784438150315792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.87 (win pays 4.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@2.04; L@2.33; W@1.24; L@2.62; L@1.67. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1611063697132891}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; L@2.33; W@1.24; L@2.62; L@1.67; L@5.87. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7479849380044807}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; W@1.24; L@2.62; L@1.67; L@5.87; W@1.33. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5627510130453173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@2.62; L@1.67; L@5.87; W@1.33; L@1.66. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36274130518997105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.62; L@1.67; L@5.87; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@3.04. Wealth 0.787 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7170049211843883}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.13 (win pays 2.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.67; L@5.87; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@3.04; W@1.32. Wealth 0.787 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29107500216794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@1.33; L@1.66; L@3.04; W@1.32; W@3.13. Wealth 0.787 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6208003954370592}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.64 (win pays 2.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@1.66; L@3.04; W@1.32; W@3.13; W@1.49. Wealth 0.787 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29066228578406417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; L@3.04; W@1.32; W@3.13; W@1.49; W@3.64. Wealth 0.787 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4874908915670305}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.04; W@1.32; W@3.13; W@1.49; W@3.64; L@2.28. Wealth 0.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.457034014965902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@3.13; W@1.49; W@3.64; L@2.28; W@1.91. Wealth 0.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6302481043904987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.13; W@1.49; W@3.64; L@2.28; W@1.91; W@1.55. Wealth 0.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48867966582147226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@3.64; L@2.28; W@1.91; W@1.55; W@2.08. Wealth 0.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48262271137525836}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.64; L@2.28; W@1.91; W@1.55; W@2.08; L@2.13. Wealth 0.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6354177113336383}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.28; W@1.91; W@1.55; W@2.08; L@2.13; W@1.68. Wealth 0.757 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4213496246002747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.91; W@1.55; W@2.08; L@2.13; W@1.68; W@2.28. Wealth 0.757 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8134079933758184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@2.08; L@2.13; W@1.68; W@2.28; W@1.06. Wealth 0.757 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7504146787800372}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.44 (win pays 5.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; L@2.13; W@1.68; W@2.28; W@1.06; W@1.47. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16108469534091713}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 7.07 (win pays 6.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@1.68; W@2.28; W@1.06; W@1.47; L@6.44. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15124971069988338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@2.28; W@1.06; W@1.47; L@6.44; L@7.07. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7624892609104326}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; W@1.06; W@1.47; L@6.44; L@7.07; W@1.13. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40238903667122905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; W@1.47; L@6.44; L@7.07; W@1.13; L@2.42. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7762382416604545}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@6.44; L@7.07; W@1.13; L@2.42; W@1.12. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8283715435438752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.44; L@7.07; W@1.13; L@2.42; W@1.12; W@1.20. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.766935622116227}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.07; W@1.13; L@2.42; W@1.12; W@1.20; W@1.16. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7408516807323241}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; L@2.42; W@1.12; W@1.20; W@1.16; L@1.35. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4963261289295876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; W@1.12; W@1.20; W@1.16; L@1.35; W@1.88. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31223730058338706}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; W@1.20; W@1.16; L@1.35; W@1.88; W@3.07. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8472556576504195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.16; L@1.35; W@1.88; W@3.07; W@1.09. Wealth 0.828 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4102985171232173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; L@1.35; W@1.88; W@3.07; W@1.09; W@2.57. Wealth 0.893 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7165743749991876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; W@1.88; W@3.07; W@1.09; W@2.57; L@1.32. Wealth 0.893 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4113199576000447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.20 (win pays 2.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; W@3.07; W@1.09; W@2.57; L@1.32; L@2.58. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3084193134871217}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.07; W@1.09; W@2.57; L@1.32; L@2.58; L@3.20. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7350022585058467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; W@2.57; L@1.32; L@2.58; L@3.20; W@1.22. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25031724343343364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.57; L@1.32; L@2.58; L@3.20; W@1.22; L@3.98. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6446132627233083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@2.58; L@3.20; W@1.22; L@3.98; L@1.48. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7371062358851931}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.58; L@3.20; W@1.22; L@3.98; L@1.48; L@1.43. Wealth 0.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34695556069081934}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.20; W@1.22; L@3.98; L@1.48; L@1.43; W@2.80. Wealth 0.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7896794165740907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@3.98; L@1.48; L@1.43; W@2.80; L@1.16. Wealth 0.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43167268508744405}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.98; L@1.48; L@1.43; W@2.80; L@1.16; L@2.55. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22892789981177344}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; L@1.43; W@2.80; L@1.16; L@2.55; L@4.08. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6089258874641367}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.61 (win pays 3.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@2.80; L@1.16; L@2.55; L@4.08; L@1.51. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20534133602811427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.30 (win pays 2.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.80; L@1.16; L@2.55; L@4.08; L@1.51; L@4.61. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3086122557102292}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.16; L@2.55; L@4.08; L@1.51; L@4.61; L@3.30. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5532932098695392}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.48 (win pays 4.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.55; L@4.08; L@1.51; L@4.61; L@3.30; W@1.68. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1979704488918113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; L@1.51; L@4.61; L@3.30; W@1.68; L@5.48. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7779779823315455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@4.61; L@3.30; W@1.68; L@5.48; W@1.47. Wealth 0.782 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37307874852067213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.61; L@3.30; W@1.68; L@5.48; W@1.47; L@2.42. Wealth 0.782 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7871674697212575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.30; W@1.68; L@5.48; W@1.47; L@2.42; L@1.37. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.376542650082062}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; L@5.48; W@1.47; L@2.42; L@1.37; L@2.36. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7324886217171507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.07 (win pays 3.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.48; W@1.47; L@2.42; L@1.37; L@2.36; L@1.19. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2570642714806007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@2.42; L@1.37; L@2.36; L@1.19; L@4.07. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7255616841476541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.93 (win pays 2.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; L@1.37; L@2.36; L@1.19; L@4.07; W@1.51. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23586577577809428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.96 (win pays 3.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@2.36; L@1.19; L@4.07; W@1.51; L@3.93. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.183122701457535}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@1.19; L@4.07; W@1.51; L@3.93; L@4.96. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4185262842631562}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; L@4.07; W@1.51; L@3.93; L@4.96; W@2.06. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6912154801567667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.07; W@1.51; L@3.93; L@4.96; W@2.06; W@1.24. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5433915643923941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.91 (win pays 3.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@3.93; L@4.96; W@2.06; W@1.24; W@1.86. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19453740016414905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.93; L@4.96; W@2.06; W@1.24; W@1.86; W@4.91. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4624687531291165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.96; W@2.06; W@1.24; W@1.86; W@4.91; L@2.10. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8100681414451796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.14 (win pays 4.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.24; W@1.86; W@4.91; L@2.10; W@1.07. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16993452271455808}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.86; W@4.91; L@2.10; W@1.07; W@5.14. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6044855237383279}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; W@4.91; L@2.10; W@1.07; W@5.14; W@1.45. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6340591323125554}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.91; L@2.10; W@1.07; W@5.14; W@1.45; W@1.79. Wealth 0.772 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4758912501403263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.39 (win pays 2.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; W@1.07; W@5.14; W@1.45; W@1.79; L@1.98. Wealth 0.772 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28840580295355867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; W@5.14; W@1.45; W@1.79; L@1.98; L@3.39. Wealth 0.772 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3713240118261955}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.14; W@1.45; W@1.79; L@1.98; L@3.39; W@3.04. Wealth 0.851 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5988519304952277}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.39 (win pays 4.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.79; L@1.98; L@3.39; W@3.04; W@1.61. Wealth 0.851 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2067409602637256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; L@1.98; L@3.39; W@3.04; W@1.61; L@5.39. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34700921838536425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.33 (win pays 2.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@3.39; W@3.04; W@1.61; L@5.39; W@2.57. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2787717854962347}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.39; W@3.04; W@1.61; L@5.39; W@2.57; L@3.33. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7238633688996564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.70 (win pays 3.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.04; W@1.61; L@5.39; W@2.57; L@3.33; L@1.19. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18521514060761674}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@5.39; W@2.57; L@3.33; L@1.19; L@4.70. Wealth 0.808 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5761180236382866}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.39; W@2.57; L@3.33; L@1.19; L@4.70; W@1.79. Wealth 0.840 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4683617611940283}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.37 (win pays 5.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.57; L@3.33; L@1.19; L@4.70; W@1.79; L@2.36. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1733691215830155}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.33; L@1.19; L@4.70; W@1.79; L@2.36; L@6.37. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.692338840077769}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.99 (win pays 3.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; L@4.70; W@1.79; L@2.36; L@6.37; W@1.34. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19779607330656437}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.70; W@1.79; L@2.36; L@6.37; W@1.34; L@4.99. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5918122184736475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; L@2.36; L@6.37; W@1.34; L@4.99; L@1.72. Wealth 0.718 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6489801856015529}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@6.37; W@1.34; L@4.99; L@1.72; W@1.51. Wealth 0.718 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37062145459117746}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.37; W@1.34; L@4.99; L@1.72; W@1.51; W@2.58. Wealth 0.718 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5280225451159676}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.55 (win pays 4.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20582194106739193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38572303878722985}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.89. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6346148630012144}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.89; W@1.75. Wealth 1.156 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43762192825076995}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.89; W@1.75; L@2.41. Wealth 1.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6493042991324108}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.89; W@1.75; L@2.41; L@1.39. Wealth 1.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4692686997755495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.89; W@1.75; L@2.41; L@1.39; W@2.21. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8123033575076999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.89; W@1.75; L@2.41; L@1.39; W@2.21; W@1.15. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41693106461466445}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.59 (win pays 1.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@2.41; L@1.39; W@2.21; W@1.15; L@2.64. Wealth 1.106 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3967946533429787}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.41; L@1.39; W@2.21; W@1.15; L@2.64; L@2.59. Wealth 1.106 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7405291997752359}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@2.21; W@1.15; L@2.64; L@2.59; W@1.52. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7395108672647576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.21; W@1.15; L@2.64; L@2.59; W@1.52; W@1.33. Wealth 1.222 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7452092382930255}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@2.64; L@2.59; W@1.52; W@1.33; L@1.36. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5561236115563988}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.64; L@2.59; W@1.52; W@1.33; L@1.36; L@2.04. Wealth 0.987 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4334707832665695}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.59; W@1.52; W@1.33; L@1.36; L@2.04; L@2.45. Wealth 0.937 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7280515433077962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.22 (win pays 4.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.33; L@1.36; L@2.04; L@2.45; L@1.40. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1636395255936036}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@1.36; L@2.04; L@2.45; L@1.40; L@5.22. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7610673471164437}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; L@2.04; L@2.45; L@1.40; L@5.22; W@1.27. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7804320754808816}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; L@2.45; L@1.40; L@5.22; W@1.27; W@1.42. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5247868424793264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; L@1.40; L@5.22; W@1.27; W@1.42; L@1.82. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3701777408955639}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; L@5.22; W@1.27; W@1.42; L@1.82; W@2.85. Wealth 1.096 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7439429373178276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.22; W@1.27; W@1.42; L@1.82; W@2.85; L@1.46. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8367249045574338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@1.42; L@1.82; W@2.85; L@1.46; W@1.10. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5716341299232782}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.74 (win pays 3.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@1.82; W@2.85; L@1.46; W@1.10; W@1.86. Wealth 0.914 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2311613610224884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; W@2.85; L@1.46; W@1.10; W@1.86; L@4.74. Wealth 0.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3158239508389521}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.85; L@1.46; W@1.10; W@1.86; L@4.74; L@3.43. Wealth 0.825 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7400266139467264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.46; W@1.10; W@1.86; L@4.74; L@3.43; W@1.47. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.398821336438183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; W@1.86; L@4.74; L@3.43; W@1.47; L@2.60. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3634785017775599}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; L@4.74; L@3.43; W@1.47; L@2.60; L@2.44. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3438289498074517}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.74; L@3.43; W@1.47; L@2.60; L@2.44; W@2.52. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.295152626879563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.25 (win pays 3.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.43; W@1.47; L@2.60; L@2.44; W@2.52; L@2.93. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2145838979739826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@2.60; L@2.44; W@2.52; L@2.93; L@4.25. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43353624831401794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; L@2.44; W@2.52; L@2.93; L@4.25; L@2.05. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43513145130927233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.47 (win pays 3.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.44; W@2.52; L@2.93; L@4.25; L@2.05; L@2.35. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20995822802763955}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@2.93; L@4.25; L@2.05; L@2.35; L@4.47. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5802937828474853}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.37 (win pays 2.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; L@4.25; L@2.05; L@2.35; L@4.47; W@1.60. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2861767150803235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.25; L@2.05; L@2.35; L@4.47; W@1.60; L@3.37. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6464696476134733}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@2.35; L@4.47; W@1.60; L@3.37; W@1.49. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.68944581567628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; L@4.47; W@1.60; L@3.37; W@1.49; L@1.42. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7647104695418945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.47; W@1.60; L@3.37; W@1.49; L@1.42; W@1.22. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.449088038921747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@3.37; W@1.49; L@1.42; W@1.22; W@2.08. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8439974405820497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.37; W@1.49; L@1.42; W@1.22; W@2.08; L@1.09. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7296758926361231}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@1.42; W@1.22; W@2.08; L@1.09; W@1.19. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.574247424472786}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; W@1.22; W@2.08; L@1.09; W@1.19; L@1.66. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33736059186817735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@2.08; L@1.09; W@1.19; L@1.66; L@3.10. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.515416514430504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; L@1.09; W@1.19; L@1.66; L@3.10; L@2.01. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32714071290495284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.09; W@1.19; L@1.66; L@3.10; L@2.01; L@2.93. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8387367945131797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.06 (win pays 3.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@1.66; L@3.10; L@2.01; L@2.93; W@1.16. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21289698380176536}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; L@3.10; L@2.01; L@2.93; W@1.16; L@4.06. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2488744555038418}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.10; L@2.01; L@2.93; W@1.16; L@4.06; L@4.08. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2390756292696758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.92 (win pays 2.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; L@2.93; W@1.16; L@4.06; L@4.08; L@3.72. Wealth 0.857 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28923769742020966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; W@1.16; L@4.06; L@4.08; L@3.72; L@3.92. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5459631680929946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; L@4.06; L@4.08; L@3.72; L@3.92; L@1.73. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7854230418563183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.23 (win pays 4.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.06; L@4.08; L@3.72; L@3.92; L@1.73; W@1.15. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19957562598433592}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; L@3.72; L@3.92; L@1.73; W@1.15; L@5.23. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6920650522149338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; L@3.92; L@1.73; W@1.15; L@5.23; W@1.40. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.803303101427681}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.92; L@1.73; W@1.15; L@5.23; W@1.40; L@1.23. Wealth 0.814 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7537680379152883}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; W@1.15; L@5.23; W@1.40; L@1.23; W@1.42. Wealth 0.866 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44233914385737116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@5.23; W@1.40; L@1.23; W@1.42; L@2.40. Wealth 0.822 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2648340630399321}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.23; W@1.40; L@1.23; W@1.42; L@2.40; L@4.11. Wealth 0.781 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.601055723780393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.12 (win pays 2.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@1.23; W@1.42; L@2.40; L@4.11; W@1.72. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3145690560578861}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.23; W@1.42; L@2.40; L@4.11; W@1.72; L@3.12. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39277199446183725}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@2.40; L@4.11; W@1.72; L@3.12; L@2.42. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3051336680138161}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.40; L@4.11; W@1.72; L@3.12; L@2.42; W@3.19. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7746652261490105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.11; W@1.72; L@3.12; L@2.42; W@3.19; W@1.39. Wealth 0.873 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40875495209934054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@3.12; L@2.42; W@3.19; W@1.39; L@2.55. Wealth 0.830 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7186175006236116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.91 (win pays 2.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.12; L@2.42; W@3.19; W@1.39; L@2.55; L@1.42. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28676971701756265}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; W@3.19; W@1.39; L@2.55; L@1.42; L@3.91. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5857063103010212}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.19; W@1.39; L@2.55; L@1.42; L@3.91; L@1.93. Wealth 0.636 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6922375721596533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.40 (win pays 3.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@2.55; L@1.42; L@3.91; L@1.93; W@1.60. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20046096384369927}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.55; L@1.42; L@3.91; L@1.93; W@1.60; L@4.40. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7858555051348607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; L@3.91; L@1.93; W@1.60; L@4.40; W@1.11. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3042504718016705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.91; L@1.93; W@1.60; L@4.40; W@1.11; L@3.56. Wealth 0.677 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34245007787319626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.93; W@1.60; L@4.40; W@1.11; L@3.56; W@3.23. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7975805263545355}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@4.40; W@1.11; L@3.56; W@3.23; W@1.18. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5381500883974785}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.40; W@1.11; L@3.56; W@3.23; W@1.18; W@1.95. Wealth 0.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6564414720496803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; L@3.56; W@3.23; W@1.18; W@1.95; W@1.57. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.799894832094867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.56; W@3.23; W@1.18; W@1.95; W@1.57; W@1.17. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8090587653242106}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.12 (win pays 4.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.23; W@1.18; W@1.95; W@1.57; W@1.17; W@1.11. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1913225993430018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.14 (win pays 5.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@1.95; W@1.57; W@1.17; W@1.11; L@5.12. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15158807337746857}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; W@1.57; W@1.17; W@1.11; L@5.12; L@6.14. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35977709741867325}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; W@1.17; W@1.11; L@5.12; L@6.14; L@2.38. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4141191494242291}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.52 (win pays 2.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.11; L@5.12; L@6.14; L@2.38; W@2.58. Wealth 0.875 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26128354371966866}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.68 (win pays 2.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; L@5.12; L@6.14; L@2.38; W@2.58; L@3.52. Wealth 0.875 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30283985949338643}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.12; L@6.14; L@2.38; W@2.58; L@3.52; L@3.68. Wealth 0.831 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7132259095979854}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.14; L@2.38; W@2.58; L@3.52; L@3.68; W@1.29. Wealth 0.831 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3755550506035114}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; W@2.58; L@3.52; L@3.68; W@1.29; W@2.79. Wealth 0.906 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6191652093149842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.58; L@3.52; L@3.68; W@1.29; W@2.79; W@1.83. Wealth 1.018 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6199461342857299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.24 (win pays 3.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.52; L@3.68; W@1.29; W@2.79; W@1.83; W@1.80. Wealth 1.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2682592380811551}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.68; W@1.29; W@2.79; W@1.83; W@1.80; L@4.24. Wealth 1.084 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8492772194799278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@2.79; W@1.83; W@1.80; L@4.24; W@1.27. Wealth 1.173 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5140183117529235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.79; W@1.83; W@1.80; L@4.24; W@1.27; W@2.18. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.695050510598654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@1.80; L@4.24; W@1.27; W@2.18; L@1.46. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8350519482834416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; L@4.24; W@1.27; W@2.18; L@1.46; W@1.32. Wealth 1.365 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2672387456977608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.24; W@1.27; W@2.18; L@1.46; W@1.32; L@3.90. Wealth 1.365 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7898302746238859}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@2.18; L@1.46; W@1.32; L@3.90; W@1.19. Wealth 1.365 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8126442737424717}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@1.46; W@1.32; L@3.90; W@1.19; W@1.33. Wealth 1.454 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7399576658683654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.46; W@1.32; L@3.90; W@1.19; W@1.33; W@1.51. Wealth 1.602 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5584961765079414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.43 (win pays 3.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@3.90; W@1.19; W@1.33; W@1.51; W@2.01. Wealth 1.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19211974915348684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.90; W@1.19; W@1.33; W@1.51; W@2.01; L@4.43. Wealth 1.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4837275725168345}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4914077197422452}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.847961296111671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.04. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8304784633083576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.04; W@1.09. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6985712317392495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.04; W@1.09; W@1.49. Wealth 1.049 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6466568172485867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.78 (win pays 3.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.04; W@1.09; W@1.49; W@1.60. Wealth 1.081 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18004671006642806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.04; W@1.09; W@1.49; W@1.60; L@4.78. Wealth 1.081 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7350675713548066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.04; W@1.09; W@1.49; W@1.60; L@4.78; W@1.55. Wealth 1.260 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5325251836729602}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; W@1.49; W@1.60; L@4.78; W@1.55; W@2.11. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6140929392181863}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@1.60; L@4.78; W@1.55; W@2.11; W@1.54. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4849969035985734}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@4.78; W@1.55; W@2.11; W@1.54; L@2.15. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6660838679730854}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.78; W@1.55; W@2.11; W@1.54; L@2.15; L@1.34. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4297008348723973}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@2.11; W@1.54; L@2.15; L@1.34; L@2.04. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8332587112504587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.11; W@1.54; L@2.15; L@1.34; L@2.04; W@1.19. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7803601340094433}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@2.15; L@1.34; L@2.04; W@1.19; W@1.40. Wealth 1.436 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4351712404837309}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; L@1.34; L@2.04; W@1.19; W@1.40; L@2.32. Wealth 1.436 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.71050065249108}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.34; L@2.04; W@1.19; W@1.40; L@2.32; L@1.24. Wealth 1.436 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6785924278702737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.03 (win pays 0.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; W@1.19; W@1.40; L@2.32; L@1.24; W@1.26. Wealth 1.436 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.845907159276676}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.40; L@2.32; L@1.24; W@1.26; W@1.03. Wealth 1.436 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8351544274555504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.32; L@1.24; W@1.26; W@1.03; L@1.33. Wealth 1.006 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34546889682905946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.32; L@1.24; W@1.26; W@1.03; L@1.33; W@3.07. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38255078736207093}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.24; W@1.26; W@1.03; L@1.33; W@3.07; L@2.45. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4900772782177242}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@1.03; L@1.33; W@3.07; L@2.45; L@2.16. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7524279078078828}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.03; L@1.33; W@3.07; L@2.45; L@2.16; L@1.18. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5668880585815546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; W@3.07; L@2.45; L@2.16; L@1.18; W@1.57. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4899204370753748}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.20 (win pays 4.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.07; L@2.45; L@2.16; L@1.18; W@1.57; L@1.78. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2026753747506588}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; L@2.16; L@1.18; W@1.57; L@1.78; L@5.20. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5870160523933338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.68 (win pays 2.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; L@1.18; W@1.57; L@1.78; L@5.20; L@1.87. Wealth 0.949 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2317674693588569}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.18; W@1.57; L@1.78; L@5.20; L@1.87; L@3.68. Wealth 0.949 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6897808625363961}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@1.78; L@5.20; L@1.87; L@3.68; L@1.48. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5989072419984512}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.78; L@5.20; L@1.87; L@3.68; L@1.48; W@1.75. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8471148573702202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.20; L@1.87; L@3.68; L@1.48; W@1.75; W@1.07. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38484298070623146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.87; L@3.68; L@1.48; W@1.75; W@1.07; L@2.61. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3977084198543219}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.68; L@1.48; W@1.75; W@1.07; L@2.61; W@2.20. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7016191601313849}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; W@1.75; W@1.07; L@2.61; W@2.20; L@1.39. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4364276586617112}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.07; L@2.61; W@2.20; L@1.39; W@2.01. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3816371619155547}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.28 (win pays 2.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@2.61; W@2.20; L@1.39; W@2.01; L@2.36. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26084438210101685}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; W@2.20; L@1.39; W@2.01; L@2.36; W@3.28. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5680834559515103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.20; L@1.39; W@2.01; L@2.36; W@3.28; W@1.96. Wealth 1.025 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6998934860358801}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@2.01; L@2.36; W@3.28; W@1.96; W@1.55. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6735373663623697}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.61 (win pays 4.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; L@2.36; W@3.28; W@1.96; W@1.55; L@1.49. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19618535977446272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@3.28; W@1.96; W@1.55; L@1.49; L@5.61. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7264048453492189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.31 (win pays 4.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.28; W@1.96; W@1.55; L@1.49; L@5.61; W@1.19. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17868601139950313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.12 (win pays 4.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; W@1.55; L@1.49; L@5.61; W@1.19; L@5.31. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18007979086863735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@1.49; L@5.61; W@1.19; L@5.31; W@5.12. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7978468617419645}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.49; L@5.61; W@1.19; L@5.31; W@5.12; L@1.43. Wealth 0.777 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3864297877787795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 7.34 (win pays 6.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.61; W@1.19; L@5.31; W@5.12; L@1.43; W@2.42. Wealth 0.777 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15379422480430033}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.62 (win pays 3.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@5.31; W@5.12; L@1.43; W@2.42; L@7.34. Wealth 0.777 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21490800561245307}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.94 (win pays 4.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.31; W@5.12; L@1.43; W@2.42; L@7.34; W@4.62. Wealth 0.777 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1632701718072499}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.12; L@1.43; W@2.42; L@7.34; W@4.62; L@5.94. Wealth 0.777 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7304255308775439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@2.42; L@7.34; W@4.62; L@5.94; L@1.45. Wealth 0.660 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6385113038857327}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.25 (win pays 2.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.42; L@7.34; W@4.62; L@5.94; L@1.45; W@1.58. Wealth 0.660 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3435631825303613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.34; W@4.62; L@5.94; L@1.45; W@1.58; L@3.25. Wealth 0.627 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7779717929303919}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.03 (win pays 4.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.62; L@5.94; L@1.45; W@1.58; L@3.25; L@1.33. Wealth 0.565 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1822026137272233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.94; L@1.45; W@1.58; L@3.25; L@1.33; L@5.03. Wealth 0.565 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7242984559125594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.58; L@3.25; L@1.33; L@5.03; W@1.48. Wealth 0.605 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.595027325911703}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.88 (win pays 5.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@3.25; L@1.33; L@5.03; W@1.48; W@1.47. Wealth 0.605 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16718414621736413}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.02 (win pays 0.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.25; L@1.33; L@5.03; W@1.48; W@1.47; W@6.88. Wealth 0.783 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.83655951637921}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; L@5.03; W@1.48; W@1.47; W@6.88; L@1.02. Wealth 0.783 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35739535176035186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.03; W@1.48; W@1.47; W@6.88; L@1.02; L@2.38. Wealth 0.783 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5199330007516724}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.15 (win pays 2.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@1.47; W@6.88; L@1.02; L@2.38; L@2.15. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2912763544015316}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@6.88; L@1.02; L@2.38; L@2.15; L@3.15. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7065041239770969}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.88; L@1.02; L@2.38; L@2.15; L@3.15; W@1.51. Wealth 0.758 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.674151766068549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.02; L@2.38; L@2.15; L@3.15; W@1.51; W@1.69. Wealth 0.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3734200629142749}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; L@2.15; L@3.15; W@1.51; W@1.69; W@2.33. Wealth 0.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7432741294131423}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; L@3.15; W@1.51; W@1.69; W@2.33; L@1.24. Wealth 0.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5695088243268819}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.15; W@1.51; W@1.69; W@2.33; L@1.24; W@1.90. Wealth 0.940 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4000844598040002}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.12 (win pays 5.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.69; W@2.33; L@1.24; W@1.90; L@2.78. Wealth 0.893 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18438198484938711}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; W@2.33; L@1.24; W@1.90; L@2.78; L@6.12. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7394153207702919}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.33; L@1.24; W@1.90; L@2.78; L@6.12; W@1.25. Wealth 0.848 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7819200673541367}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.24; W@1.90; L@2.78; L@6.12; W@1.25; L@1.33. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22147900890885924}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@2.78; L@6.12; W@1.25; L@1.33; L@4.15. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7124303781723702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.78; L@6.12; W@1.25; L@1.33; L@4.15; W@1.47. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7173988778113687}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.12; W@1.25; L@1.33; L@4.15; W@1.47; W@1.52. Wealth 0.883 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37780701858668986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.33; L@4.15; W@1.47; W@1.52; L@2.30. Wealth 0.883 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6611904221798768}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; L@4.15; W@1.47; W@1.52; L@2.30; W@1.38. Wealth 0.883 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33802289737281854}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.18 (win pays 2.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; W@1.47; W@1.52; L@2.30; W@1.38; L@2.67. Wealth 0.883 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3497382522662339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.52; L@2.30; W@1.38; L@2.67; L@3.18. Wealth 0.839 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6215680056880124}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@2.30; W@1.38; L@2.67; L@3.18; L@1.83. Wealth 0.713 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6355996099164365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.30; W@1.38; L@2.67; L@3.18; L@1.83; W@1.70. Wealth 0.763 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40438053605680035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@2.67; L@3.18; L@1.83; W@1.70; L@2.29. Wealth 0.763 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4594265167719541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; L@3.18; L@1.83; W@1.70; L@2.29; L@2.11. Wealth 0.763 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8244997075670241}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.18; L@1.83; W@1.70; L@2.29; L@2.11; W@1.26. Wealth 0.793 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7708832261502879}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; W@1.70; L@2.29; L@2.11; W@1.26; L@1.43. Wealth 0.634 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5044041251454627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.30 (win pays 3.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@2.29; L@2.11; W@1.26; L@1.43; L@2.16. Wealth 0.571 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1977897919153628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.29; L@2.11; W@1.26; L@1.43; L@2.16; L@4.30. Wealth 0.571 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8212879740803496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.11; W@1.26; L@1.43; L@2.16; L@4.30; L@1.40. Wealth 0.343 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5064179287940758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@1.43; L@2.16; L@4.30; L@1.40; W@2.18. Wealth 0.383 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4774488765471633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; L@2.16; L@4.30; L@1.40; W@2.18; W@1.99. Wealth 0.383 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44338985322871216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; L@4.30; L@1.40; W@2.18; W@1.99; L@2.25. Wealth 0.383 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8230361400198128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.30; L@1.40; W@2.18; W@1.99; L@2.25; W@1.28. Wealth 0.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4569531770599633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.16 (win pays 4.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; W@2.18; W@1.99; L@2.25; W@1.28; L@2.01. Wealth 0.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19629961250235284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.33 (win pays 2.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; W@1.99; L@2.25; W@1.28; L@2.01; W@5.16. Wealth 0.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3430521274674987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.99; L@2.25; W@1.28; L@2.01; W@5.16; L@3.33. Wealth 0.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6427888485949296}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@1.28; L@2.01; W@5.16; L@3.33; W@1.39. Wealth 0.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5297951559468121}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@2.01; W@5.16; L@3.33; W@1.39; W@2.07. Wealth 0.425 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5800622646234146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; W@5.16; L@3.33; W@1.39; W@2.07; L@1.50. Wealth 0.425 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6865207720062233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.16; L@3.33; W@1.39; W@2.07; L@1.50; W@1.53. Wealth 0.447 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.510630225598535}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.33; W@1.39; W@2.07; L@1.50; W@1.53; L@1.75. Wealth 0.447 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7664264837270295}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@2.07; L@1.50; W@1.53; L@1.75; W@1.15. Wealth 0.447 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8457603961389951}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4178747777310877}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64. Wealth 1.082 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.591508175043565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@1.72. Wealth 1.082 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7131760009178628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.49 (win pays 3.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@1.72; W@1.59. Wealth 1.210 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21150792442801594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@1.72; W@1.59; W@4.49. Wealth 1.210 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4642882052138708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@1.72; W@1.59; W@4.49; L@1.86. Wealth 1.210 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5788683034489368}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@1.72; W@1.59; W@4.49; L@1.86; W@1.57. Wealth 1.210 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5165951986725162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@1.59; W@4.49; L@1.86; W@1.57; L@1.97. Wealth 1.210 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7551407019570484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.61 (win pays 3.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@4.49; L@1.86; W@1.57; L@1.97; L@1.46. Wealth 0.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24828028572450248}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.49; L@1.86; W@1.57; L@1.97; L@1.46; L@4.61. Wealth 0.919 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4230841960316283}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; W@1.57; L@1.97; L@1.46; L@4.61; W@2.57. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.60456964177276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.75 (win pays 4.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@1.97; L@1.46; L@4.61; W@2.57; L@1.41. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16883746490129745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; L@1.46; L@4.61; W@2.57; L@1.41; L@5.75. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8284404732703133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.46; L@4.61; W@2.57; L@1.41; L@5.75; W@1.20. Wealth 0.991 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5658156441875178}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.35 (win pays 2.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.61; W@2.57; L@1.41; L@5.75; W@1.20; W@2.00. Wealth 1.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2985060372891332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.96 (win pays 1.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.57; L@1.41; L@5.75; W@1.20; W@2.00; L@3.35. Wealth 1.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29125413421716745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; L@5.75; W@1.20; W@2.00; L@3.35; W@2.96. Wealth 1.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5512313970009306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.75; W@1.20; W@2.00; L@3.35; W@2.96; W@1.74. Wealth 1.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6941711789980953}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@2.00; L@3.35; W@2.96; W@1.74; W@1.47. Wealth 1.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7634698759956886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.20 (win pays 4.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; L@3.35; W@2.96; W@1.74; W@1.47; W@1.45. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2053032492809926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.25 (win pays 3.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.35; W@2.96; W@1.74; W@1.47; W@1.45; L@5.20. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2090845742892656}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.52 (win pays 4.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.96; W@1.74; W@1.47; W@1.45; L@5.20; W@4.25. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17151028000546054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.17 (win pays 3.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.74; W@1.47; W@1.45; L@5.20; W@4.25; W@5.52. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2182964638061972}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.45; L@5.20; W@4.25; W@5.52; W@4.17. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40894367006673127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@5.20; W@4.25; W@5.52; W@4.17; L@2.63. Wealth 1.209 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47746802811615296}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.20; W@4.25; W@5.52; W@4.17; L@2.63; L@1.90. Wealth 1.209 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7197639723413811}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.25; W@5.52; W@4.17; L@2.63; L@1.90; L@1.42. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7253458214944142}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.52; W@4.17; L@2.63; L@1.90; L@1.42; W@1.27. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35136185741513204}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.17; L@2.63; L@1.90; L@1.42; W@1.27; L@2.57. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7028261816984409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.28 (win pays 3.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; L@1.90; L@1.42; W@1.27; L@2.57; W@1.28. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24968928090736092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@1.42; W@1.27; L@2.57; W@1.28; L@4.28. Wealth 1.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37066854724494386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; W@1.27; L@2.57; W@1.28; L@4.28; L@3.09. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35280471023011467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.59 (win pays 1.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@2.57; W@1.28; L@4.28; L@3.09; L@2.80. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36516939056054076}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; W@1.28; L@4.28; L@3.09; L@2.80; W@2.59. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34790739577455926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@4.28; L@3.09; L@2.80; W@2.59; W@2.80. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43514307956634646}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.28; L@3.09; L@2.80; W@2.59; W@2.80; L@2.36. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6719292306029547}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@2.80; W@2.59; W@2.80; L@2.36; W@1.38. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43797614161706155}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; W@2.59; W@2.80; L@2.36; W@1.38; W@2.51. Wealth 1.174 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29866423782575446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.59; W@2.80; L@2.36; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@3.72. Wealth 1.115 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7478522138754791}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.80; L@2.36; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@3.72; W@1.52. Wealth 1.291 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37432880089050424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.80 (win pays 3.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@3.72; W@1.52; W@3.00. Wealth 1.420 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22390399530536928}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.31 (win pays 2.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@2.51; L@3.72; W@1.52; W@3.00; L@4.80. Wealth 1.420 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28299526852371415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.51; L@3.72; W@1.52; W@3.00; L@4.80; L@3.31. Wealth 1.420 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46979603492649047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; W@1.52; W@3.00; L@4.80; L@3.31; L@2.20. Wealth 1.349 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6727087646023678}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@3.00; L@4.80; L@3.31; L@2.20; W@1.67. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4321878034070945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.00; L@4.80; L@3.31; L@2.20; W@1.67; W@2.18. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5017875674805501}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.80; L@3.31; L@2.20; W@1.67; W@2.18; W@2.03. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6647642981330549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.31; L@2.20; W@1.67; W@2.18; W@2.03; W@1.33. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5247225785283116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; W@1.67; W@2.18; W@2.03; W@1.33; W@2.14. Wealth 1.703 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4403220909804936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@2.18; W@2.03; W@1.33; W@2.14; L@2.01. Wealth 1.703 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3284995830957522}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.82 (win pays 4.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; W@2.03; W@1.33; W@2.14; L@2.01; L@3.43. Wealth 1.618 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1679553892393048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@1.33; W@2.14; L@2.01; L@3.43; L@5.82. Wealth 1.618 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3965782246006467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@2.14; L@2.01; L@3.43; L@5.82; L@2.16. Wealth 1.618 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23995301852128656}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.13 (win pays 3.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; L@2.01; L@3.43; L@5.82; L@2.16; L@3.62. Wealth 1.618 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2536697331598866}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; L@3.43; L@5.82; L@2.16; L@3.62; L@4.13. Wealth 1.618 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8471937254828118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.43; L@5.82; L@2.16; L@3.62; L@4.13; W@1.25. Wealth 1.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46699940980943777}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.82; L@2.16; L@3.62; L@4.13; W@1.25; L@2.37. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40565574138277094}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; L@3.62; L@4.13; W@1.25; L@2.37; L@2.39. Wealth 1.529 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4922403837784508}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.62; L@4.13; W@1.25; L@2.37; L@2.39; L@2.25. Wealth 1.376 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7140841298995283}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.13; W@1.25; L@2.37; L@2.39; L@2.25; W@1.40. Wealth 1.376 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6855084736323385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@2.37; L@2.39; L@2.25; W@1.40; L@1.27. Wealth 1.376 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7312772456268449}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; L@2.39; L@2.25; W@1.40; L@1.27; W@1.35. Wealth 1.376 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3052092561860661}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; L@2.25; W@1.40; L@1.27; W@1.35; L@3.57. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7470857791756375}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@1.40; L@1.27; W@1.35; L@3.57; W@1.25. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8239878467180081}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.63 (win pays 3.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@1.27; W@1.35; L@3.57; W@1.25; W@1.30. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1918897518874678}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.27; W@1.35; L@3.57; W@1.25; W@1.30; L@4.63. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26207274368866207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.04 (win pays 5.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@3.57; W@1.25; W@1.30; L@4.63; L@4.11. Wealth 1.316 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1772223725811725}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.25 (win pays 2.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; W@1.25; W@1.30; L@4.63; L@4.11; W@6.04. Wealth 1.316 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34646588354271207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.30; L@4.63; L@4.11; W@6.04; L@3.25. Wealth 1.250 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5144454967803213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.29 (win pays 2.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@4.63; L@4.11; W@6.04; L@3.25; W@2.05. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2583838098780168}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.63; L@4.11; W@6.04; L@3.25; W@2.05; W@3.29. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41935937273891766}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.11; W@6.04; L@3.25; W@2.05; W@3.29; W@2.47. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7862493766643691}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.04; L@3.25; W@2.05; W@3.29; W@2.47; W@1.43. Wealth 1.485 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.563577146837197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.25; W@2.05; W@3.29; W@2.47; W@1.43; L@1.84. Wealth 1.411 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5256512296508652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.71 (win pays 2.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; W@3.29; W@2.47; W@1.43; L@1.84; L@1.64. Wealth 1.411 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2919786302663202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.29; W@2.47; W@1.43; L@1.84; L@1.64; L@3.71. Wealth 1.340 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2393765966965906}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; W@1.43; L@1.84; L@1.64; L@3.71; L@4.66. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7738695493933447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.84; L@1.64; L@3.71; L@4.66; W@1.21. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7617308455055544}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; L@1.64; L@3.71; L@4.66; W@1.21; W@1.18. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3397434931395629}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.54 (win pays 3.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; L@3.71; L@4.66; W@1.21; W@1.18; L@2.68. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20761889798265884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.71; L@4.66; W@1.21; W@1.18; L@2.68; L@4.54. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6803441629952344}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.88 (win pays 2.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.66; W@1.21; W@1.18; L@2.68; L@4.54; W@1.47. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26900404179683474}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.18; L@2.68; L@4.54; W@1.47; L@3.88. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.648448185694064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.65 (win pays 3.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@2.68; L@4.54; W@1.47; L@3.88; W@1.49. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20573447594812855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.68; L@4.54; W@1.47; L@3.88; W@1.49; W@4.65. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4059031438793339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.54; W@1.47; L@3.88; W@1.49; W@4.65; L@2.56. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7060872964337713}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@3.88; W@1.49; W@4.65; L@2.56; W@1.49. Wealth 1.335 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7368187780344249}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.88; W@1.49; W@4.65; L@2.56; W@1.49; W@1.39. Wealth 1.361 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5480722966324625}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@4.65; L@2.56; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@1.81. Wealth 1.361 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.562339501483679}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.65; L@2.56; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@1.81; W@1.55. Wealth 1.361 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5930539383687086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.56; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@1.81; W@1.55; L@1.50. Wealth 1.361 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6834646090629247}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@1.39; L@1.81; W@1.55; L@1.50; W@1.67. Wealth 1.543 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38399590528363875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.81; W@1.55; L@1.50; W@1.67; L@2.56. Wealth 1.543 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6225276277643789}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.81; W@1.55; L@1.50; W@1.67; L@2.56; W@1.72. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1901233675404046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@1.50; W@1.67; L@2.56; W@1.72; L@4.71. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24699129154446844}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; W@1.67; L@2.56; W@1.72; L@4.71; L@3.58. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6534513019235514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@2.56; W@1.72; L@4.71; L@3.58; W@1.61. Wealth 1.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6879624347824588}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.56; W@1.72; L@4.71; L@3.58; W@1.61; W@1.44. Wealth 1.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23719806169972957}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@4.71; L@3.58; W@1.61; W@1.44; L@3.72. Wealth 1.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32063154804454835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.71; L@3.58; W@1.61; W@1.44; L@3.72; L@2.94. Wealth 1.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.811881010550505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.42 (win pays 4.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17885524487573307}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3673360382532952}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42; W@2.70. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21373808849966047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42; W@2.70; L@4.26. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6848640103764796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42; W@2.70; L@4.26; W@1.58. Wealth 1.087 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4778743007748646}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42; W@2.70; L@4.26; W@1.58; L@1.97. Wealth 1.087 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.721607670063308}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.42; W@2.70; L@4.26; W@1.58; L@1.97; W@1.21. Wealth 1.087 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5854878008630862}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.66 (win pays 2.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.70; L@4.26; W@1.58; L@1.97; W@1.21; W@1.89. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2865888864512298}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.26; W@1.58; L@1.97; W@1.21; W@1.89; L@3.66. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3994570020279749}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.95 (win pays 4.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@1.97; W@1.21; W@1.89; L@3.66; L@2.58. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17125013815121212}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.91 (win pays 3.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@1.21; W@1.89; L@3.66; L@2.58; L@5.95. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17315875313562606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.89; L@3.66; L@2.58; L@5.95; L@4.91. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7089121561121072}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@3.66; L@2.58; L@5.95; L@4.91; W@1.22. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42269985189708814}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.66; L@2.58; L@5.95; L@4.91; W@1.22; L@2.35. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42137605867858785}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.58; L@5.95; L@4.91; W@1.22; L@2.35; L@2.10. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7741214324665523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.97 (win pays 2.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.95; L@4.91; W@1.22; L@2.35; L@2.10; W@1.12. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22835866686003217}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.91; W@1.22; L@2.35; L@2.10; W@1.12; L@3.97. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6514349335001338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@2.35; L@2.10; W@1.12; L@3.97; W@1.61. Wealth 1.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38563135874561444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; L@2.10; W@1.12; L@3.97; W@1.61; L@2.40. Wealth 1.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3878282956760519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; W@1.12; L@3.97; W@1.61; L@2.40; L@2.20. Wealth 1.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3409473124666601}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; L@3.97; W@1.61; L@2.40; L@2.20; L@2.89. Wealth 1.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6377742733752497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.97; W@1.61; L@2.40; L@2.20; L@2.89; W@1.66. Wealth 1.340 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5038457462894113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.70 (win pays 3.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@2.40; L@2.20; L@2.89; W@1.66; W@2.24. Wealth 1.505 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18526728933036118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.40; L@2.20; L@2.89; W@1.66; W@2.24; L@4.70. Wealth 1.505 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6622003014762935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; L@2.89; W@1.66; W@2.24; L@4.70; L@1.54. Wealth 1.430 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2688419889186637}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.89; W@1.66; W@2.24; L@4.70; L@1.54; L@3.56. Wealth 1.430 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.546727008923472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; W@2.24; L@4.70; L@1.54; L@3.56; L@1.89. Wealth 1.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7403581455584318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; L@4.70; L@1.54; L@3.56; L@1.89; W@1.33. Wealth 1.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5756245132188211}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.70; L@1.54; L@3.56; L@1.89; W@1.33; W@1.55. Wealth 1.358 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.524568885270495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; L@3.56; L@1.89; W@1.33; W@1.55; W@2.00. Wealth 1.427 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2520738853805201}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.56; L@1.89; W@1.33; W@1.55; W@2.00; L@4.15. Wealth 1.427 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3074521771154577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.54 (win pays 2.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; W@1.33; W@1.55; W@2.00; L@4.15; L@3.69. Wealth 1.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30093051367093104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.55; W@2.00; L@4.15; L@3.69; L@3.54. Wealth 1.288 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5611938300705102}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@2.00; L@4.15; L@3.69; L@3.54; L@2.00. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2762894309697059}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; L@4.15; L@3.69; L@3.54; L@2.00; W@3.56. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4887587124980397}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; L@3.69; L@3.54; L@2.00; W@3.56; L@2.20. Wealth 1.101 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28756183196089286}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; L@3.54; L@2.00; W@3.56; L@2.20; L@3.63. Wealth 1.101 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5501960915261446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.54; L@2.00; W@3.56; L@2.20; L@3.63; W@1.95. Wealth 1.206 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3339499994792985}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.00; W@3.56; L@2.20; L@3.63; W@1.95; L@2.76. Wealth 1.206 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7058368871745478}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.56; L@2.20; L@3.63; W@1.95; L@2.76; W@1.56. Wealth 1.340 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5919662761989635}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; L@3.63; W@1.95; L@2.76; W@1.56; L@1.86. Wealth 1.206 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8008960872422952}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.63; W@1.95; L@2.76; W@1.56; L@1.86; W@1.21. Wealth 1.206 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7614858892371228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; L@2.76; W@1.56; L@1.86; W@1.21; W@1.50. Wealth 1.387 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7438620696999625}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; W@1.56; L@1.86; W@1.21; W@1.50; W@1.50. Wealth 1.526 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6828040515276302}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@1.86; W@1.21; W@1.50; W@1.50; W@1.58. Wealth 1.658 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6105261075086439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; W@1.21; W@1.50; W@1.50; W@1.58; W@1.75. Wealth 1.782 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5239138969161244}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.38 (win pays 3.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.50; W@1.50; W@1.58; W@1.75; W@1.98. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2387254885067933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.50; W@1.58; W@1.75; W@1.98; W@4.38. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6903741130248113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.58; W@1.75; W@1.98; W@4.38; W@1.39. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2603311417766211}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.75; W@1.98; W@4.38; W@1.39; L@4.04. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6132650337210083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.98; W@4.38; W@1.39; L@4.04; W@1.53. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.362028457242474}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; W@4.38; W@1.39; L@4.04; W@1.53; L@2.47. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7411626668099175}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.38; W@1.39; L@4.04; W@1.53; L@2.47; W@1.33. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5437939785476612}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@4.04; W@1.53; L@2.47; W@1.33; W@1.76. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.753428972544874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.04; W@1.53; L@2.47; W@1.33; W@1.76; W@1.16. Wealth 1.869 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5188382012381844}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.47; W@1.33; W@1.76; W@1.16; W@2.17. Wealth 2.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49161746461185485}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.96 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.47; W@1.33; W@1.76; W@1.16; W@2.17; L@2.17. Wealth 1.984 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7392867292905322}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.76; W@1.16; W@2.17; L@2.17; L@1.54. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5103041318934465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.16; W@2.17; L@2.17; L@1.54; W@1.81. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6225230655940572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@2.17; L@2.17; L@1.54; W@1.81; W@1.72. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5122952429260013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.17; L@2.17; L@1.54; W@1.81; W@1.72; W@1.89. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7272562363003797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; L@1.54; W@1.81; W@1.72; W@1.89; L@1.35. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5972689553773576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 7.13 (win pays 6.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@1.81; W@1.72; W@1.89; L@1.35; W@1.48. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1597355293823999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; W@1.72; W@1.89; L@1.35; W@1.48; L@7.13. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3687614354447911}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@1.89; L@1.35; W@1.48; L@7.13; W@2.48. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6317490679043796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@1.35; W@1.48; L@7.13; W@2.48; W@1.52. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39052875953022337}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; W@1.48; L@7.13; W@2.48; W@1.52; L@2.28. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6968504970215273}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.92 (win pays 3.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@7.13; W@2.48; W@1.52; L@2.28; W@1.28. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21592791664466587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.13; W@2.48; W@1.52; L@2.28; W@1.28; L@4.92. Wealth 1.489 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5384112183633493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.48; W@1.52; L@2.28; W@1.28; L@4.92; L@1.98. Wealth 1.414 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8392730366943696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@2.28; W@1.28; L@4.92; L@1.98; L@1.29. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5799690455316807}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.28; W@1.28; L@4.92; L@1.98; L@1.29; L@1.84. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6027840916158479}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.53 (win pays 1.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@4.92; L@1.98; L@1.29; L@1.84; W@1.52. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4529891498850287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.92; L@1.98; L@1.29; L@1.84; W@1.52; L@2.53. Wealth 0.802 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2079537714880362}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@1.29; L@1.84; W@1.52; L@2.53; W@4.26. Wealth 0.802 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5779475743947176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; L@1.84; W@1.52; L@2.53; W@4.26; W@1.89. Wealth 0.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5282650910559581}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; W@1.52; L@2.53; W@4.26; W@1.89; L@2.15. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5668043816887278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@2.53; W@4.26; W@1.89; L@2.15; W@1.67. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7183015431414577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.27 (win pays 3.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.53; W@4.26; W@1.89; L@2.15; W@1.67; L@1.27. Wealth 0.786 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25954793414835464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.26; W@1.89; L@2.15; W@1.67; L@1.27; L@4.27. Wealth 0.747 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5781146820848141}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@2.15; W@1.67; L@1.27; L@4.27; W@1.96. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2861193426131876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; W@1.67; L@1.27; L@4.27; W@1.96; L@3.62. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7944921720147882}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@1.27; L@4.27; W@1.96; L@3.62; W@1.27. Wealth 0.866 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4677116520613902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.16 (win pays 3.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.27; L@4.27; W@1.96; L@3.62; W@1.27; W@2.40. Wealth 0.988 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2727853782132}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.27; W@1.96; L@3.62; W@1.27; W@2.40; L@4.16. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8332667294397128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.78 (win pays 2.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; L@3.62; W@1.27; W@2.40; L@4.16; L@1.09. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26225438123908396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.62; W@1.27; W@2.40; L@4.16; L@1.09; L@3.78. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.322241319026492}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@2.40; L@4.16; L@1.09; L@3.78; L@2.80. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34565392043176124}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.40; L@4.16; L@1.09; L@3.78; L@2.80; L@2.81. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36368241281630564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.16; L@1.09; L@3.78; L@2.80; L@2.81; L@2.63. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39313108405151864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.20 (win pays 4.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.09; L@3.78; L@2.80; L@2.81; L@2.63; L@2.23. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17937015410241086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.78; L@2.80; L@2.81; L@2.63; L@2.23; L@5.20. Wealth 0.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3381619768227164}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.36 (win pays 3.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; L@2.81; L@2.63; L@2.23; L@5.20; L@3.26. Wealth 0.892 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23392291600376935}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; L@2.63; L@2.23; L@5.20; L@3.26; L@4.36. Wealth 0.892 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4562990639146257}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; L@2.23; L@5.20; L@3.26; L@4.36; W@2.03. Wealth 0.892 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5976895670902762}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; L@5.20; L@3.26; L@4.36; W@2.03; W@1.71. Wealth 0.923 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7793948370225382}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.20; L@3.26; L@4.36; W@2.03; W@1.71; W@1.29. Wealth 0.923 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6976480042270098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.16 (win pays 5.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; L@4.36; W@2.03; W@1.71; W@1.29; L@1.58. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17969199987864112}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.36; W@2.03; W@1.71; W@1.29; L@1.58; L@6.16. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5971082984580185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@1.71; W@1.29; L@1.58; L@6.16; W@1.44. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7637512293332438}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29219361097312924}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2969157637966252}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.69. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5750460728207852}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.69; W@1.68. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7911266333936561}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.69; W@1.68; W@1.39. Wealth 1.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42618465822571794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.70 (win pays 2.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.69; W@1.68; W@1.39; L@2.54. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28689885743389}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.69; W@1.68; W@1.39; L@2.54; W@3.70. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5489916633190839}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@1.68; W@1.39; L@2.54; W@3.70; W@1.87. Wealth 1.051 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8051618492107295}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@1.39; L@2.54; W@3.70; W@1.87; W@1.10. Wealth 1.051 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39048186016595066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@2.54; W@3.70; W@1.87; W@1.10; W@2.94. Wealth 1.255 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6369296779785509}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.54; W@3.70; W@1.87; W@1.10; W@2.94; W@1.63. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3505886069846851}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.70; W@1.87; W@1.10; W@2.94; W@1.63; L@3.14. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31714658682027097}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.11 (win pays 2.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.10; W@2.94; W@1.63; L@3.14; L@3.58. Wealth 1.169 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34041452230146896}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; W@2.94; W@1.63; L@3.14; L@3.58; L@3.11. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48013989316774}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.94; W@1.63; L@3.14; L@3.58; L@3.11; L@1.78. Wealth 1.110 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5804975464540064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@3.14; L@3.58; L@3.11; L@1.78; W@1.77. Wealth 1.153 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6048638359662839}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.14; L@3.58; L@3.11; L@1.78; W@1.77; L@1.83. Wealth 0.980 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38284328173602367}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.58; L@3.11; L@1.78; W@1.77; L@1.83; W@2.24. Wealth 0.980 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3171891308017428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.11; L@1.78; W@1.77; L@1.83; W@2.24; L@2.85. Wealth 0.980 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.725928622222909}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.78; W@1.77; L@1.83; W@2.24; L@2.85; L@1.58. Wealth 0.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5439873438209702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.83; W@2.24; L@2.85; L@1.58; W@2.10. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23743293917836616}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.67 (win pays 4.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; W@2.24; L@2.85; L@1.58; W@2.10; L@3.98. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16311976572992432}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; L@2.85; L@1.58; W@2.10; L@3.98; L@5.67. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45236058093226206}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.51 (win pays 2.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.85; L@1.58; W@2.10; L@3.98; L@5.67; L@2.02. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32308923275026036}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; W@2.10; L@3.98; L@5.67; L@2.02; W@3.51. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45676115499216174}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.10; L@3.98; L@5.67; L@2.02; W@3.51; L@2.39. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4069314358380318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.53 (win pays 2.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.98; L@5.67; L@2.02; W@3.51; L@2.39; L@2.22. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2441101036801449}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.67; L@2.02; W@3.51; L@2.39; L@2.22; L@3.53. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41333591487361276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.84 (win pays 1.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; W@3.51; L@2.39; L@2.22; L@3.53; L@2.39. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39932847036974817}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.39 (win pays 5.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.51; L@2.39; L@2.22; L@3.53; L@2.39; L@2.84. Wealth 0.812 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1521418537415608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; L@2.22; L@3.53; L@2.39; L@2.84; L@6.39. Wealth 0.812 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38146401868225693}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; L@3.53; L@2.39; L@2.84; L@6.39; L@2.74. Wealth 0.771 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47194432236121064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.84 (win pays 3.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.53; L@2.39; L@2.84; L@6.39; L@2.74; L@2.19. Wealth 0.733 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2290863245279228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; L@2.84; L@6.39; L@2.74; L@2.19; L@4.84. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40394392470441776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.84; L@6.39; L@2.74; L@2.19; L@4.84; L@2.48. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4904552269431218}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.39; L@2.74; L@2.19; L@4.84; L@2.48; L@2.12. Wealth 0.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8419752456748918}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; L@2.19; L@4.84; L@2.48; L@2.12; W@1.04. Wealth 0.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6072841345471611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; L@4.84; L@2.48; L@2.12; W@1.04; L@1.53. Wealth 0.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3438864505400421}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.84; L@2.48; L@2.12; W@1.04; L@1.53; W@2.76. Wealth 0.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8326489160585653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; L@2.12; W@1.04; L@1.53; W@2.76; W@1.24. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2910879506229903}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.12; W@1.04; L@1.53; W@2.76; W@1.24; L@3.01. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5406699969945297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; L@1.53; W@2.76; W@1.24; L@3.01; W@1.83. Wealth 0.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35319202606797395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@2.76; W@1.24; L@3.01; W@1.83; L@3.07. Wealth 0.651 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7952777863342771}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.76; W@1.24; L@3.01; W@1.83; L@3.07; W@1.39. Wealth 0.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5409673214116535}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.14 (win pays 5.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@3.01; W@1.83; L@3.07; W@1.39; L@1.73. Wealth 0.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17352044929559662}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.01; W@1.83; L@3.07; W@1.39; L@1.73; L@6.14. Wealth 0.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5829506326913874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; L@3.07; W@1.39; L@1.73; L@6.14; W@1.50. Wealth 0.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6502479875690088}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.07; W@1.39; L@1.73; L@6.14; W@1.50; W@1.64. Wealth 0.773 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7212720456078635}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.73; L@6.14; W@1.50; W@1.64; L@1.58. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43359700498719533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; L@6.14; W@1.50; W@1.64; L@1.58; L@2.61. Wealth 0.557 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7455943790901571}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.14; W@1.50; W@1.64; L@1.58; L@2.61; W@1.41. Wealth 0.591 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8289166024620777}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.64; L@1.58; L@2.61; W@1.41; W@1.36. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4056188075273883}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@1.58; L@2.61; W@1.41; W@1.36; L@2.22. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.802016638599834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; L@2.61; W@1.41; W@1.36; L@2.22; W@1.09. Wealth 0.676 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7763910963605956}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; W@1.41; W@1.36; L@2.22; W@1.09; W@1.30. Wealth 0.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.627658406143169}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.08 (win pays 0.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.36; L@2.22; W@1.09; W@1.30; W@1.76. Wealth 0.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7882125344358163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@2.22; W@1.09; W@1.30; W@1.76; W@1.08. Wealth 0.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6763783803447683}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@1.09; W@1.30; W@1.76; W@1.08; W@1.55. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3505842170946506}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; W@1.30; W@1.76; W@1.08; W@1.55; L@2.51. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5361210959887642}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.76; W@1.08; W@1.55; L@2.51; L@1.90. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3347922124603634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.08; W@1.55; L@2.51; L@1.90; W@3.04. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6408967690884332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.08; W@1.55; L@2.51; L@1.90; W@3.04; L@1.63. Wealth 0.767 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41276899112304455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@2.51; L@1.90; W@3.04; L@1.63; W@2.74. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5972430108153195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.51; L@1.90; W@3.04; L@1.63; W@2.74; W@1.77. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39714009903511716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; W@3.04; L@1.63; W@2.74; W@1.77; L@2.46. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.75287821569567}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.96 (win pays 1.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.04; L@1.63; W@2.74; W@1.77; L@2.46; L@1.37. Wealth 0.841 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3566596740142933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@2.74; W@1.77; L@2.46; L@1.37; L@2.96. Wealth 0.799 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5383729894128437}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.30 (win pays 4.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.74; W@1.77; L@2.46; L@1.37; L@2.96; L@2.09. Wealth 0.719 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2062698783277449}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.84 (win pays 4.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.46; L@1.37; L@2.96; L@2.09; L@5.30. Wealth 0.719 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1845869151150723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; L@1.37; L@2.96; L@2.09; L@5.30; L@5.84. Wealth 0.719 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7626910206482931}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.46 (win pays 4.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@2.96; L@2.09; L@5.30; L@5.84; L@1.22. Wealth 0.719 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19491330697394424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.51 (win pays 3.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.96; L@2.09; L@5.30; L@5.84; L@1.22; L@5.46. Wealth 0.719 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24746680452074887}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.09; L@5.30; L@5.84; L@1.22; L@5.46; L@4.51. Wealth 0.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8258750941618148}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.30; L@5.84; L@1.22; L@5.46; L@4.51; L@1.17. Wealth 0.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8388723229680746}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.84; L@1.22; L@5.46; L@4.51; L@1.17; W@1.18. Wealth 0.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7377270877166012}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.49 (win pays 1.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; L@5.46; L@4.51; L@1.17; W@1.18; W@1.16. Wealth 0.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4564549816046334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.46; L@4.51; L@1.17; W@1.18; W@1.16; W@2.49. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7515021930954915}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.51; L@1.17; W@1.18; W@1.16; W@2.49; W@1.32. Wealth 0.785 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40752496336097677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; W@1.18; W@1.16; W@2.49; W@1.32; L@2.66. Wealth 0.746 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5332114857350599}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@1.16; W@2.49; W@1.32; L@2.66; W@2.08. Wealth 0.826 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5604243829850207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@2.49; W@1.32; L@2.66; W@2.08; W@1.87. Wealth 0.862 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7951840706678626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.89 (win pays 4.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.49; W@1.32; L@2.66; W@2.08; W@1.87; W@1.15. Wealth 0.862 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17093637433733938}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.66; W@2.08; W@1.87; W@1.15; L@5.89. Wealth 0.862 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6147520843087003}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.90 (win pays 3.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; W@2.08; W@1.87; W@1.15; L@5.89; L@1.76. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21371744276632657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; W@1.87; W@1.15; L@5.89; L@1.76; L@4.90. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8298122992481237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.15; L@5.89; L@1.76; L@4.90; W@1.12. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6969186966675459}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@5.89; L@1.76; L@4.90; W@1.12; L@1.41. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6590782868409574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.50 (win pays 2.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.89; L@1.76; L@4.90; W@1.12; L@1.41; W@1.34. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25369166035761315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; L@4.90; W@1.12; L@1.41; W@1.34; W@3.50. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.801419650271369}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.90; W@1.12; L@1.41; W@1.34; W@3.50; W@1.14. Wealth 0.776 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6197989150567488}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.40 (win pays 3.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; L@1.41; W@1.34; W@3.50; W@1.14; W@1.71. Wealth 0.831 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1964280239272756}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; W@1.34; W@3.50; W@1.14; W@1.71; L@4.40. Wealth 0.831 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2227888398812354}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@3.50; W@1.14; W@1.71; L@4.40; L@4.66. Wealth 0.831 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4145458182312143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.14; W@1.71; L@4.40; L@4.66; W@2.58. Wealth 0.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46063457263947416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@1.71; L@4.40; L@4.66; W@2.58; L@2.21. Wealth 0.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7673679071669263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@4.40; L@4.66; W@2.58; L@2.21; W@1.40. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7209695123853828}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.02 (win pays 3.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.40; L@4.66; W@2.58; L@2.21; W@1.40; W@1.23. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22640672671910045}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.66; W@2.58; L@2.21; W@1.40; W@1.23; L@4.02. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5218800523956232}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.58; L@2.21; W@1.40; W@1.23; L@4.02; W@2.04. Wealth 1.019 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5966900236502055}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.13 (win pays 2.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.40; W@1.23; L@4.02; W@2.04; L@1.78. Wealth 0.917 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2867083999339626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45587658844548384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5881667394545358}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@1.86. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5125307381953783}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.06 (win pays 5.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@1.86; L@1.98. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18656379114404692}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@1.86; L@1.98; L@6.06. Wealth 0.979 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4633556338875606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@1.86; L@1.98; L@6.06; L@2.23. Wealth 0.930 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.678726183249985}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.96 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.45; L@1.86; L@1.98; L@6.06; L@2.23; W@1.51. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8283955175275669}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@1.98; L@6.06; L@2.23; W@1.51; L@1.17. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7981619504796706}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@6.06; L@2.23; W@1.51; L@1.17; W@1.28. Wealth 0.980 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5413247942591168}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.06; L@2.23; W@1.51; L@1.17; W@1.28; L@2.03. Wealth 0.882 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6040719590946115}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; W@1.51; L@1.17; W@1.28; L@2.03; W@1.89. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.589347348765572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@1.17; W@1.28; L@2.03; W@1.89; W@1.83. Wealth 1.084 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6970753915482732}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; W@1.28; L@2.03; W@1.89; W@1.83; L@1.31. Wealth 1.084 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8302333711436897}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@2.03; W@1.89; W@1.83; L@1.31; W@1.34. Wealth 1.193 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6062844085100716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; W@1.89; W@1.83; L@1.31; W@1.34; W@1.77. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6357644950197895}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; W@1.83; L@1.31; W@1.34; W@1.77; W@1.62. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23545456664696351}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; L@1.31; W@1.34; W@1.77; W@1.62; L@3.63. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.82467484158071}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.14 (win pays 5.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; W@1.34; W@1.77; W@1.62; L@3.63; W@1.07. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18195486789674015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.77; W@1.62; L@3.63; W@1.07; L@6.14. Wealth 1.325 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6781892147190187}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.06 (win pays 4.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; W@1.62; L@3.63; W@1.07; L@6.14; W@1.60. Wealth 1.444 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20631239117326722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.60 (win pays 2.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@3.63; W@1.07; L@6.14; W@1.60; L@5.06. Wealth 1.444 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2654932201858383}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.63; W@1.07; L@6.14; W@1.60; L@5.06; L@3.60. Wealth 1.444 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.676767283365415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@6.14; W@1.60; L@5.06; L@3.60; W@1.46. Wealth 1.444 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35332043957345505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.14; W@1.60; L@5.06; L@3.60; W@1.46; W@3.19. Wealth 1.603 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8312904462746527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.25 (win pays 4.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@5.06; L@3.60; W@1.46; W@3.19; W@1.25. Wealth 1.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1730158079667543}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.91 (win pays 3.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.06; L@3.60; W@1.46; W@3.19; W@1.25; L@5.25. Wealth 1.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18179072371281005}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.91 (win pays 1.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.60; W@1.46; W@3.19; W@1.25; L@5.25; W@4.91. Wealth 1.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3582192451999714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@3.19; W@1.25; L@5.25; W@4.91; L@2.91. Wealth 1.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5805326299021797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.19; W@1.25; L@5.25; W@4.91; L@2.91; W@1.49. Wealth 1.663 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8044286331415763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@5.25; W@4.91; L@2.91; W@1.49; W@1.42. Wealth 1.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5050594962738724}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.25; W@4.91; L@2.91; W@1.49; W@1.42; L@1.97. Wealth 1.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.544064684545373}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.91; L@2.91; W@1.49; W@1.42; L@1.97; W@2.10. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3061702542370611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.91; W@1.49; W@1.42; L@1.97; W@2.10; L@3.09. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.379880035703797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@1.42; L@1.97; W@2.10; L@3.09; W@2.62. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5482303025848361}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.87 (win pays 5.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@1.97; W@2.10; L@3.09; W@2.62; W@1.72. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1614977651142608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@2.10; L@3.09; W@2.62; W@1.72; L@6.87. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2675906217914781}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.10; L@3.09; W@2.62; W@1.72; L@6.87; L@3.23. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41763842795923345}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@2.62; W@1.72; L@6.87; L@3.23; W@2.19. Wealth 2.183 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5809636101549487}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.62; W@1.72; L@6.87; L@3.23; W@2.19; W@1.90. Wealth 2.378 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5810062389117601}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@6.87; L@3.23; W@2.19; W@1.90; W@1.72. Wealth 2.378 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6698166318444203}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.87; L@3.23; W@2.19; W@1.90; W@1.72; W@1.46. Wealth 2.378 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7244443718750295}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.23; W@2.19; W@1.90; W@1.72; W@1.46; L@1.37. Wealth 2.378 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6452794819268071}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.19; W@1.90; W@1.72; W@1.46; L@1.37; L@1.75. Wealth 2.022 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6873573208047089}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@1.72; W@1.46; L@1.37; L@1.75; L@1.65. Wealth 1.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6207079810942189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@1.46; L@1.37; L@1.75; L@1.65; L@1.51. Wealth 1.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6199541869946712}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; L@1.37; L@1.75; L@1.65; L@1.51; W@1.40. Wealth 1.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47608929203433936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@1.75; L@1.65; L@1.51; W@1.40; W@2.21. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7665055347565185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; L@1.65; L@1.51; W@1.40; W@2.21; L@1.12. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29596989957214254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.65; L@1.51; W@1.40; W@2.21; L@1.12; L@2.88. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3857779863731472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; W@1.40; W@2.21; L@1.12; L@2.88; L@2.65. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7411817506333345}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@2.21; L@1.12; L@2.88; L@2.65; W@1.27. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3644498262319381}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.21; L@1.12; L@2.88; L@2.65; W@1.27; L@2.85. Wealth 1.715 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6272540249912709}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.12; L@2.88; L@2.65; W@1.27; L@2.85; L@1.68. Wealth 1.543 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.661322965929039}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.83 (win pays 2.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.88; L@2.65; W@1.27; L@2.85; L@1.68; W@1.73. Wealth 1.768 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29424783632430485}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.36 (win pays 2.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; W@1.27; L@2.85; L@1.68; W@1.73; L@3.83. Wealth 1.680 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2981639005900319}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@2.85; L@1.68; W@1.73; L@3.83; L@3.36. Wealth 1.680 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6310816957735549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.85; L@1.68; W@1.73; L@3.83; L@3.36; W@1.66. Wealth 1.735 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6916631763483446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; W@1.73; L@3.83; L@3.36; W@1.66; L@1.40. Wealth 1.735 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6638767963016425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; L@3.83; L@3.36; W@1.66; L@1.40; L@1.59. Wealth 1.562 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44597934321387644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.28 (win pays 3.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.83; L@3.36; W@1.66; L@1.40; L@1.59; W@2.33. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21832515067884192}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.79 (win pays 2.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.36; W@1.66; L@1.40; L@1.59; W@2.33; L@4.28. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2317269570690239}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@1.40; L@1.59; W@2.33; L@4.28; L@3.79. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3807603728977342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; L@1.59; W@2.33; L@4.28; L@3.79; L@2.47. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3481561802114662}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.33 (win pays 2.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.59; W@2.33; L@4.28; L@3.79; L@2.47; L@2.64. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25792807376516624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.33; L@4.28; L@3.79; L@2.47; L@2.64; L@3.33. Wealth 1.666 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6732213506290308}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.28; L@3.79; L@2.47; L@2.64; L@3.33; L@1.57. Wealth 1.499 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1838447219720651}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.79; L@2.47; L@2.64; L@3.33; L@1.57; L@4.66. Wealth 1.499 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5124538748454791}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.47; L@2.64; L@3.33; L@1.57; L@4.66; L@2.07. Wealth 1.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3800104824396331}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.64; L@3.33; L@1.57; L@4.66; L@2.07; W@2.33. Wealth 1.424 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7984214587646442}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.33; L@1.57; L@4.66; L@2.07; W@2.33; W@1.35. Wealth 1.524 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5731374917526507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.57; L@4.66; L@2.07; W@2.33; W@1.35; L@1.98. Wealth 1.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5030661918754965}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.66; L@2.07; W@2.33; W@1.35; L@1.98; W@2.26. Wealth 1.459 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.530590505422858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; W@2.33; W@1.35; L@1.98; W@2.26; W@2.14. Wealth 1.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8387288461701503}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.21 (win pays 2.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.33; W@1.35; L@1.98; W@2.26; W@2.14; W@1.21. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30450358424151225}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.61 (win pays 2.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.98; W@2.26; W@2.14; W@1.21; L@3.21. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2679583038187593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; W@2.26; W@2.14; W@1.21; L@3.21; W@3.61. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5065674195190167}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.26; W@2.14; W@1.21; L@3.21; W@3.61; L@1.87. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5781533598251708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@1.21; L@3.21; W@3.61; L@1.87; W@1.90. Wealth 1.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4966250990562807}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; L@3.21; W@3.61; L@1.87; W@1.90; L@1.98. Wealth 1.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7928890179436497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.21; W@3.61; L@1.87; W@1.90; L@1.98; W@1.31. Wealth 1.845 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.692723972602205}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.74 (win pays 2.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.61; L@1.87; W@1.90; L@1.98; W@1.31; L@1.48. Wealth 1.752 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22990467400009768}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.87; W@1.90; L@1.98; W@1.31; L@1.48; L@3.74. Wealth 1.752 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37000062096751063}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.98; W@1.31; L@1.48; L@3.74; L@2.77. Wealth 1.752 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6546514928927516}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; W@1.31; L@1.48; L@3.74; L@2.77; L@1.44. Wealth 1.752 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8159542643241116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@1.48; L@3.74; L@2.77; L@1.44; W@1.18. Wealth 1.752 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6995543556825035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; L@3.74; L@2.77; L@1.44; W@1.18; W@1.63. Wealth 1.972 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44512686824692593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.74; L@2.77; L@1.44; W@1.18; W@1.63; W@2.29. Wealth 1.972 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4338871380806212}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.77; L@1.44; W@1.18; W@1.63; W@2.29; L@2.14. Wealth 1.972 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4217557591835349}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; W@1.18; W@1.63; W@2.29; L@2.14; W@2.72. Wealth 2.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7687621737149052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.35 (win pays 3.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@1.63; W@2.29; L@2.14; W@2.72; W@1.48. Wealth 2.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19989213039994305}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.05 (win pays 3.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; W@2.29; L@2.14; W@2.72; W@1.48; W@4.35. Wealth 2.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2179067831007196}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.29; L@2.14; W@2.72; W@1.48; W@4.35; W@4.05. Wealth 2.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43712439693146243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@2.72; W@1.48; W@4.35; W@4.05; W@2.60. Wealth 3.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6027256687029002}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.72; W@1.48; W@4.35; W@4.05; W@2.60; W@1.46. Wealth 3.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.610938083842807}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@4.35; W@4.05; W@2.60; W@1.46; W@1.76. Wealth 3.302 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8335852870611251}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.50 (win pays 2.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.35; W@4.05; W@2.60; W@1.46; W@1.76; W@1.11. Wealth 3.302 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3221321471929106}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.05; W@2.60; W@1.46; W@1.76; W@1.11; L@3.50. Wealth 3.137 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5243147277580001}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; W@1.46; W@1.76; W@1.11; L@3.50; L@1.64. Wealth 3.137 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3194060886201916}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@1.76; W@1.11; L@3.50; L@1.64; L@2.93. Wealth 3.137 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6133566752116227}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.11; L@3.50; L@1.64; L@2.93; L@1.84. Wealth 2.667 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45821963716788716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7713044796591952}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32767602755829184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.78. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6789289562666799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.78; L@1.37. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4897368549915959}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.78; L@1.37; W@1.89. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4028800088113116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.78; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@2.36. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7222158810026784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.78; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@2.36; W@1.42. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5637868572643118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.78; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@2.36; W@1.42; W@1.54. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7439632511889879}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; W@1.89; L@2.36; W@1.42; W@1.54; L@1.41. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24227418570529385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@2.36; W@1.42; W@1.54; L@1.41; W@3.89. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5713509520461305}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@1.42; W@1.54; L@1.41; W@3.89; L@1.97. Wealth 0.844 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6334718964313044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@1.54; L@1.41; W@3.89; L@1.97; W@1.51. Wealth 0.844 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4694534057502422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.15 (win pays 5.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@1.41; W@3.89; L@1.97; W@1.51; L@2.17. Wealth 0.844 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1858922392374138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; W@3.89; L@1.97; W@1.51; L@2.17; L@6.15. Wealth 0.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5808848808526001}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.34 (win pays 3.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.89; L@1.97; W@1.51; L@2.17; L@6.15; L@1.62. Wealth 0.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2491495821316912}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.20 (win pays 2.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@1.51; L@2.17; L@6.15; L@1.62; L@4.34. Wealth 0.761 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34754191118521727}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@2.17; L@6.15; L@1.62; L@4.34; W@3.20. Wealth 0.845 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6897749528796647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; L@6.15; L@1.62; L@4.34; W@3.20; W@1.63. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6392954274321235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.15; L@1.62; L@4.34; W@3.20; W@1.63; L@1.51. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3758993253002901}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.80 (win pays 5.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; L@4.34; W@3.20; W@1.63; L@1.51; W@2.97. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15907944758361026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.34; W@3.20; W@1.63; L@1.51; W@2.97; L@6.80. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6654600615697481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.20; W@1.63; L@1.51; W@2.97; L@6.80; W@1.42. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5502626107441695}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@1.51; W@2.97; L@6.80; W@1.42; W@1.62. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3711008139634677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.63 (win pays 3.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; W@2.97; L@6.80; W@1.42; W@1.62; W@2.44. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18893042340359245}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; L@6.80; W@1.42; W@1.62; W@2.44; L@4.63. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5929127782156262}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.80; W@1.42; W@1.62; W@2.44; L@4.63; W@1.68. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7061616743144176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.81 (win pays 2.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@1.62; W@2.44; L@4.63; W@1.68; W@1.53. Wealth 1.130 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.300289360795452}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; W@2.44; L@4.63; W@1.68; W@1.53; L@3.81. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4706732752510785}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.44; L@4.63; W@1.68; W@1.53; L@3.81; W@2.36. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6269992994320885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.63; W@1.68; W@1.53; L@3.81; W@2.36; W@1.39. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5393963587291691}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@1.53; L@3.81; W@2.36; W@1.39; W@1.89. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6270180574204193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.68 (win pays 2.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@3.81; W@2.36; W@1.39; W@1.89; W@1.57. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27852946686092317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.81; W@2.36; W@1.39; W@1.89; W@1.57; L@3.68. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7715906889190813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.36; W@1.39; W@1.89; W@1.57; L@3.68; W@1.14. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4266820691560752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.89; W@1.57; L@3.68; W@1.14; L@2.60. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3378949192748012}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; W@1.57; L@3.68; W@1.14; L@2.60; L@2.98. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41497713501930655}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@3.68; W@1.14; L@2.60; L@2.98; L@2.20. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8101543675321125}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.68; W@1.14; L@2.60; L@2.98; L@2.20; W@1.22. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7512858274192026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@2.60; L@2.98; L@2.20; W@1.22; W@1.13. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4692980032988189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.83 (win pays 4.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; L@2.98; L@2.20; W@1.22; W@1.13; L@1.81. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19099200674138062}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.98; L@2.20; W@1.22; W@1.13; L@1.81; L@5.83. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37472327099713315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; W@1.22; W@1.13; L@1.81; L@5.83; W@2.52. Wealth 1.159 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5172238395341271}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@1.13; L@1.81; L@5.83; W@2.52; L@2.01. Wealth 1.101 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6741402826235451}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.28 (win pays 2.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; L@1.81; L@5.83; W@2.52; L@2.01; L@1.60. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27226940497373475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.30 (win pays 3.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.81; L@5.83; W@2.52; L@2.01; L@1.60; W@3.28. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2392110684965974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.74 (win pays 3.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.83; W@2.52; L@2.01; L@1.60; W@3.28; L@4.30. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21323095050062668}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.98 (win pays 4.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; L@2.01; L@1.60; W@3.28; L@4.30; L@4.74. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1773617381899738}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; L@1.60; W@3.28; L@4.30; L@4.74; L@5.98. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7842209008955682}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; W@3.28; L@4.30; L@4.74; L@5.98; W@1.25. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46763177932532796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.28; L@4.30; L@4.74; L@5.98; W@1.25; L@1.93. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4807066303085157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.30; L@4.74; L@5.98; W@1.25; L@1.93; L@1.94. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4569686416939792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.74; L@5.98; W@1.25; L@1.93; L@1.94; W@1.99. Wealth 0.936 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7823315168337085}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.98; W@1.25; L@1.93; L@1.94; W@1.99; L@1.37. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4682356220812304}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.93; L@1.94; W@1.99; L@1.37; L@1.93. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6755598827700112}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.32 (win pays 4.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.93; L@1.94; W@1.99; L@1.37; L@1.93; W@1.34. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18988658613476447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@1.99; L@1.37; L@1.93; W@1.34; L@5.32. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4155548876580384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.99; L@1.37; L@1.93; W@1.34; L@5.32; L@2.62. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3146349574109679}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@1.93; W@1.34; L@5.32; L@2.62; L@2.79. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4205732247348267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.93; W@1.34; L@5.32; L@2.62; L@2.79; L@2.31. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6465972351423415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@5.32; L@2.62; L@2.79; L@2.31; W@1.60. Wealth 0.732 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49782678408343806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.32; L@2.62; L@2.79; L@2.31; W@1.60; L@2.09. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6673187685792484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.62; L@2.79; L@2.31; W@1.60; L@2.09; W@1.45. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6859017477532885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.39 (win pays 3.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.79; L@2.31; W@1.60; L@2.09; W@1.45; L@1.56. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21536812830463406}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.31; W@1.60; L@2.09; W@1.45; L@1.56; L@4.39. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7987312262787238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.51 (win pays 3.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@2.09; W@1.45; L@1.56; L@4.39; W@1.16. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19537714776306628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.09; W@1.45; L@1.56; L@4.39; W@1.16; L@4.51. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7432470267569353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.83 (win pays 1.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.56; L@4.39; W@1.16; L@4.51; W@1.26. Wealth 0.626 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3695534765937496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.52 (win pays 2.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; L@4.39; W@1.16; L@4.51; W@1.26; W@2.83. Wealth 0.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31620180351025384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.39; W@1.16; L@4.51; W@1.26; W@2.83; W@3.52. Wealth 0.770 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3862969329243172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; L@4.51; W@1.26; W@2.83; W@3.52; L@2.60. Wealth 0.770 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6878716724689243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.51; W@1.26; W@2.83; W@3.52; L@2.60; W@1.30. Wealth 0.770 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6292403962126067}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@2.83; W@3.52; L@2.60; W@1.30; W@1.41. Wealth 0.770 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6423358368388461}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.83; W@3.52; L@2.60; W@1.30; W@1.41; L@1.77. Wealth 0.616 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5216659695016519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.52; L@2.60; W@1.30; W@1.41; L@1.77; L@1.76. Wealth 0.616 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6977919078773718}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@1.30; W@1.41; L@1.77; L@1.76; W@1.45. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5137160797367819}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.41; L@1.77; L@1.76; W@1.45; L@1.66. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4492746169371694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.41 (win pays 2.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@1.77; L@1.76; W@1.45; L@1.66; W@2.39. Wealth 0.674 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31968739044474215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; L@1.76; W@1.45; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@3.41. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6441509932247349}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@1.45; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@3.41; W@1.55. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6910903543306439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.66; W@2.39; W@3.41; W@1.55; W@1.43. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6342151773960013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@2.39; W@3.41; W@1.55; W@1.43; W@1.59. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4287920911300557}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.39; W@3.41; W@1.55; W@1.43; W@1.59; W@2.37. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6265597975760065}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.30 (win pays 2.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.41; W@1.55; W@1.43; W@1.59; W@2.37; W@1.62. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3298323177877842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@1.43; W@1.59; W@2.37; W@1.62; L@3.30. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46589262207697624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.45 (win pays 3.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@1.59; W@2.37; W@1.62; L@3.30; W@1.96. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23537590718903098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.06 (win pays 2.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@2.37; W@1.62; L@3.30; W@1.96; L@4.45. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34175837543733667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.43 (win pays 3.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.37; W@1.62; L@3.30; W@1.96; L@4.45; L@3.06. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23107886129463945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@3.30; W@1.96; L@4.45; L@3.06; L@4.43. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5322249842868015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.33 (win pays 3.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.30; W@1.96; L@4.45; L@3.06; L@4.43; L@1.69. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2423714891325186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; L@4.45; L@3.06; L@4.43; L@1.69; L@4.33. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3757599736954991}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.45; L@3.06; L@4.43; L@1.69; L@4.33; L@2.48. Wealth 0.717 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5282691567289464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.06; L@4.43; L@1.69; L@4.33; L@2.48; L@2.03. Wealth 0.681 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5660323989390311}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.43; L@1.69; L@4.33; L@2.48; L@2.03; W@1.82. Wealth 0.709 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3804665609345413}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@4.33; L@2.48; L@2.03; W@1.82; L@2.26. Wealth 0.709 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7880862306794595}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.33; L@2.48; L@2.03; W@1.82; L@2.26; W@1.35. Wealth 0.746 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4611153710197289}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; L@2.03; W@1.82; L@2.26; W@1.35; L@1.87. Wealth 0.746 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.746722887407312}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; W@1.82; L@2.26; W@1.35; L@1.87; W@1.45. Wealth 0.813 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8498991277978152}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@2.26; W@1.35; L@1.87; W@1.45; W@1.21. Wealth 0.838 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3620851636413163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.26; W@1.35; L@1.87; W@1.45; W@1.21; L@3.07. Wealth 0.796 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2958726452618612}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.87; W@1.45; W@1.21; L@3.07; L@3.47. Wealth 0.796 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41903747176036943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6213640457535821}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6403996600248717}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.46. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5463695047807695}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.46; W@1.72. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7632393064666385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.61 (win pays 4.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.46; W@1.72; W@1.13. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1773177432910652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.52 (win pays 2.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.46; W@1.72; W@1.13; L@5.61. Wealth 0.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3218772667885526}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.75 (win pays 4.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.46; W@1.72; W@1.13; L@5.61; L@3.52. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1924039815936903}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@1.72; W@1.13; L@5.61; L@3.52; L@5.75. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4689045334306744}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@1.13; L@5.61; L@3.52; L@5.75; W@1.86. Wealth 0.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6842109154757328}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; L@5.61; L@3.52; L@5.75; W@1.86; W@1.55. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6484322196489997}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.61; L@3.52; L@5.75; W@1.86; W@1.55; W@1.40. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8301037817088093}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.52; L@5.75; W@1.86; W@1.55; W@1.40; W@1.32. Wealth 0.934 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2813222895121195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.75; W@1.86; W@1.55; W@1.40; W@1.32; L@3.98. Wealth 0.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8218525182893632}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; W@1.55; W@1.40; W@1.32; L@3.98; W@1.06. Wealth 0.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46091579395765714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@1.40; W@1.32; L@3.98; W@1.06; W@2.01. Wealth 0.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42616891966778403}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@1.32; L@3.98; W@1.06; W@2.01; L@2.00. Wealth 0.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.637157309961317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@3.98; W@1.06; W@2.01; L@2.00; L@1.69. Wealth 0.798 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.53932802039429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.98; W@1.06; W@2.01; L@2.00; L@1.69; L@1.75. Wealth 0.798 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2643573045902034}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; W@2.01; L@2.00; L@1.69; L@1.75; L@3.80. Wealth 0.798 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3663586228972868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; L@2.00; L@1.69; L@1.75; L@3.80; W@2.98. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.823069978628631}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.00; L@1.69; L@1.75; L@3.80; W@2.98; W@1.07. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4466474550504367}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@1.75; L@3.80; W@2.98; W@1.07; W@2.09. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6814973231412351}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; L@3.80; W@2.98; W@1.07; W@2.09; L@1.48. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7599179532914127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.80; W@2.98; W@1.07; W@2.09; L@1.48; W@1.30. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4127240227457438}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@1.07; W@2.09; L@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.14. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36898948817248434}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; W@2.09; L@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.14; L@2.78. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6397271639443047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.09; L@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.14; L@2.78; L@1.41. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4212150213136173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.14; L@2.78; L@1.41; L@2.06. Wealth 0.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8358122643762163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.14; L@2.78; L@1.41; L@2.06; W@1.22. Wealth 0.897 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5919495894512532}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; L@2.78; L@1.41; L@2.06; W@1.22; W@1.69. Wealth 0.897 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49023595863665503}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.06 (win pays 2.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.78; L@1.41; L@2.06; W@1.22; W@1.69; L@1.92. Wealth 0.897 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29050307274680437}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; L@2.06; W@1.22; W@1.69; L@1.92; L@3.06. Wealth 0.897 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.760989264432782}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.06; W@1.22; W@1.69; L@1.92; L@3.06; W@1.43. Wealth 0.974 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5526533969968966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.55 (win pays 3.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@1.69; L@1.92; L@3.06; W@1.43; L@1.98. Wealth 0.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24893853741967037}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; L@1.92; L@3.06; W@1.43; L@1.98; L@4.55. Wealth 0.833 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3001863126184936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; L@3.06; W@1.43; L@1.98; L@4.55; L@3.03. Wealth 0.833 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4834061473692032}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.06; W@1.43; L@1.98; L@4.55; L@3.03; L@2.32. Wealth 0.750 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40192293076977825}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.64 (win pays 3.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.98; L@4.55; L@3.03; L@2.32; W@2.47. Wealth 0.750 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23708283733534752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.71 (win pays 2.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@4.55; L@3.03; L@2.32; W@2.47; W@4.64. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23082624513062694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.59 (win pays 1.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.55; L@3.03; L@2.32; W@2.47; W@4.64; L@3.71. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4396241854872437}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.03; L@2.32; W@2.47; W@4.64; L@3.71; L@2.59. Wealth 0.797 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6330055285065253}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.32; W@2.47; W@4.64; L@3.71; L@2.59; W@1.78. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8111986566258161}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; W@4.64; L@3.71; L@2.59; W@1.78; W@1.35. Wealth 0.985 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8169937134604232}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.64; L@3.71; L@2.59; W@1.78; W@1.35; L@1.31. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6968261393882335}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.71; L@2.59; W@1.78; W@1.35; L@1.31; W@1.25. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4761795721754126}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.98 (win pays 4.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.59; W@1.78; W@1.35; L@1.31; W@1.25; L@1.83. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1762392991849587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.13 (win pays 4.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; W@1.35; L@1.31; W@1.25; L@1.83; L@5.98. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1718171403888858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.31; W@1.25; L@1.83; L@5.98; L@5.13. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29396630188832606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; W@1.25; L@1.83; L@5.98; L@5.13; L@3.63. Wealth 0.749 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47909838750104017}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.01 (win pays 5.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.83; L@5.98; L@5.13; L@3.63; L@2.40. Wealth 0.674 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15634336588829867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; L@5.98; L@5.13; L@3.63; L@2.40; W@6.01. Wealth 0.674 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7502350981849921}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.98; L@5.13; L@3.63; L@2.40; W@6.01; W@1.50. Wealth 0.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7159280743447956}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.13; L@3.63; L@2.40; W@6.01; W@1.50; W@1.38. Wealth 0.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47571621502919104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.63; L@2.40; W@6.01; W@1.50; W@1.38; W@1.98. Wealth 0.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6778927957085386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.40; W@6.01; W@1.50; W@1.38; W@1.98; L@1.60. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4035773529539136}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.01; W@1.50; W@1.38; W@1.98; L@1.60; L@2.38. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5173248681876013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.38; W@1.98; L@1.60; L@2.38; L@2.03. Wealth 0.598 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31452458630490676}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.98; L@1.60; L@2.38; L@2.03; L@2.72. Wealth 0.598 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.612873249837105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@1.60; L@2.38; L@2.03; L@2.72; W@1.43. Wealth 0.598 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6398965107816691}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.99 (win pays 2.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; L@2.38; L@2.03; L@2.72; W@1.43; L@1.43. Wealth 0.598 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2750075298382532}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; L@2.03; L@2.72; W@1.43; L@1.43; W@3.99. Wealth 0.688 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7132168897828496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; L@2.72; W@1.43; L@1.43; W@3.99; W@1.35. Wealth 0.688 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5791177195436623}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.72; W@1.43; L@1.43; W@3.99; W@1.35; L@1.73. Wealth 0.688 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37175134618030775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.43; W@3.99; W@1.35; L@1.73; L@2.50. Wealth 0.688 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6036989072085787}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.84 (win pays 1.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@3.99; W@1.35; L@1.73; L@2.50; W@1.80. Wealth 0.743 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3259812381984529}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.99; W@1.35; L@1.73; L@2.50; W@1.80; L@2.84. Wealth 0.743 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7332989495926104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.73; L@2.50; W@1.80; L@2.84; W@1.20. Wealth 0.743 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7893079680109542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; L@2.50; W@1.80; L@2.84; W@1.20; W@1.10. Wealth 0.743 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8360055607763451}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; W@1.80; L@2.84; W@1.20; W@1.10; W@1.37. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6048234649955971}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; L@2.84; W@1.20; W@1.10; W@1.37; L@1.66. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6879164953193054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.84; W@1.20; W@1.10; W@1.37; L@1.66; W@1.37. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8328193610888325}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.10; W@1.37; L@1.66; W@1.37; W@1.19. Wealth 0.852 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7250874863119774}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; W@1.37; L@1.66; W@1.37; W@1.19; L@1.43. Wealth 0.767 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7838568103264468}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; L@1.66; W@1.37; W@1.19; L@1.43; W@1.40. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34515718597964606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.37; W@1.19; L@1.43; W@1.40; L@2.76. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3526271939984491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.30 (win pays 3.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.19; L@1.43; W@1.40; L@2.76; L@2.67. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21477139303861176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@1.43; W@1.40; L@2.76; L@2.67; L@4.30. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34599941925939337}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@1.40; L@2.76; L@2.67; L@4.30; L@2.54. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3745418886787085}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.76; L@2.67; L@4.30; L@2.54; W@2.55. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8338377267306948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.76 (win pays 2.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; L@2.67; L@4.30; L@2.54; W@2.55; W@1.07. Wealth 0.829 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2969825231074126}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.16 (win pays 2.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; L@4.30; L@2.54; W@2.55; W@1.07; L@3.76. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28491170434292157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.30; L@2.54; W@2.55; W@1.07; L@3.76; L@3.16. Wealth 0.788 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6564637253553546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.54; W@2.55; W@1.07; L@3.76; L@3.16; W@1.61. Wealth 0.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5372077541983962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.12 (win pays 3.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.55; W@1.07; L@3.76; L@3.16; W@1.61; W@1.78. Wealth 0.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2772484318449824}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@3.76; L@3.16; W@1.61; W@1.78; L@4.12. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6124745048624223}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.76; L@3.16; W@1.61; W@1.78; L@4.12; W@1.56. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38636869603593804}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.16; W@1.61; W@1.78; L@4.12; W@1.56; L@2.70. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7523226281059355}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.78; L@4.12; W@1.56; L@2.70; W@1.14. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5188295914189079}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; L@4.12; W@1.56; L@2.70; W@1.14; W@1.84. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4622112814971425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.12; W@1.56; L@2.70; W@1.14; W@1.84; W@2.06. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7456492930716937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@2.70; W@1.14; W@1.84; W@2.06; W@1.29. Wealth 0.754 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7822574922574143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.91 (win pays 2.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; W@1.14; W@1.84; W@2.06; W@1.29; L@1.32. Wealth 0.679 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2864957382770912}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@1.84; W@2.06; W@1.29; L@1.32; L@3.91. Wealth 0.645 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5927939333571165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.18 (win pays 3.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; W@2.06; W@1.29; L@1.32; L@3.91; W@1.78. Wealth 0.670 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24835565076844304}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.35 (win pays 2.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.29; L@1.32; L@3.91; W@1.78; W@4.18. Wealth 0.670 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2686373680912012}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@1.32; L@3.91; W@1.78; W@4.18; L@3.35. Wealth 0.670 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5573015052438232}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@3.91; W@1.78; W@4.18; L@3.35; L@1.92. Wealth 0.603 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7555519247468294}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.53 (win pays 3.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.91; W@1.78; W@4.18; L@3.35; L@1.92; L@1.52. Wealth 0.422 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24035887213734922}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; W@4.18; L@3.35; L@1.92; L@1.52; L@4.53. Wealth 0.401 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3982969442679739}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.18; L@3.35; L@1.92; L@1.52; L@4.53; W@2.19. Wealth 0.401 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8143205095137118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35596061872763024}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.76 (win pays 2.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30328913239241023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@3.76. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.641839521604495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.13 (win pays 4.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@3.76; W@1.48. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18114777570431026}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@3.76; W@1.48; L@5.13. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5528091916694741}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@3.76; W@1.48; L@5.13; W@1.55. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8114213342883648}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@3.76; W@1.48; L@5.13; W@1.55; W@1.24. Wealth 0.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8186298906482118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.03 (win pays 4.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.76; W@1.48; L@5.13; W@1.55; W@1.24; L@1.06. Wealth 0.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2170530451581154}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@5.13; W@1.55; W@1.24; L@1.06; L@5.03. Wealth 0.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6343961455493178}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.77 (win pays 2.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.13; W@1.55; W@1.24; L@1.06; L@5.03; W@1.70. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2385867877738165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@1.24; L@1.06; L@5.03; W@1.70; L@3.77. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5422890180754679}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@1.06; L@5.03; W@1.70; L@3.77; W@1.71. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5889339754383551}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.06; L@5.03; W@1.70; L@3.77; W@1.71; L@1.80. Wealth 0.977 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8357116393864613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.03; W@1.70; L@3.77; W@1.71; L@1.80; W@1.32. Wealth 1.070 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7553912062065644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@3.77; W@1.71; L@1.80; W@1.32; W@1.22. Wealth 1.070 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7073509340320961}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.77; W@1.71; L@1.80; W@1.32; W@1.22; L@1.41. Wealth 1.070 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6458742309862237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@1.80; W@1.32; W@1.22; L@1.41; W@1.61. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.798351085347263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.80; W@1.32; W@1.22; L@1.41; W@1.61; W@1.26. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5187181444767611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.56 (win pays 5.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.22; L@1.41; W@1.61; W@1.26; L@2.20. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15590488297428884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@1.41; W@1.61; W@1.26; L@2.20; W@6.56. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7044533715075058}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; W@1.61; W@1.26; L@2.20; W@6.56; W@1.53. Wealth 1.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7376263327594751}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.26; L@2.20; W@6.56; W@1.53; W@1.47. Wealth 1.171 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5872415196567815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@2.20; W@6.56; W@1.53; W@1.47; W@1.69. Wealth 1.171 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6212694040632684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; W@6.56; W@1.53; W@1.47; W@1.69; L@1.85. Wealth 0.937 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5904535942018023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.56; W@1.53; W@1.47; W@1.69; L@1.85; L@1.65. Wealth 0.937 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6726272738304547}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@1.47; W@1.69; L@1.85; L@1.65; L@1.34. Wealth 0.937 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5828674876517697}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.28 (win pays 4.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.69; L@1.85; L@1.65; L@1.34; W@1.88. Wealth 1.019 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20431217244346805}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; L@1.85; L@1.65; L@1.34; W@1.88; L@5.28. Wealth 1.019 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4463472245622696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.85; L@1.65; L@1.34; W@1.88; L@5.28; L@2.35. Wealth 0.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7940749852882306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.65; L@1.34; W@1.88; L@5.28; L@2.35; W@1.07. Wealth 0.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8076818037961833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.07 (win pays 5.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.34; W@1.88; L@5.28; L@2.35; W@1.07; L@1.35. Wealth 0.678 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17281606594269422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; L@5.28; L@2.35; W@1.07; L@1.35; W@6.07. Wealth 0.678 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37512056669296745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.28; L@2.35; W@1.07; L@1.35; W@6.07; L@2.65. Wealth 0.678 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.743338081753041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.31 (win pays 4.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; W@1.07; L@1.35; W@6.07; L@2.65; L@1.51. Wealth 0.542 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20007975422150856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@1.35; W@6.07; L@2.65; L@1.51; L@5.31. Wealth 0.542 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5757483952405797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.31 (win pays 3.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; W@6.07; L@2.65; L@1.51; L@5.31; W@1.94. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22551036272780148}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.07; L@2.65; L@1.51; L@5.31; W@1.94; L@4.31. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.565708957643902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; L@1.51; L@5.31; W@1.94; L@4.31; L@1.65. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.764541650503608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@5.31; W@1.94; L@4.31; L@1.65; W@1.28. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5468524202771224}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.31; W@1.94; L@4.31; L@1.65; W@1.28; W@1.63. Wealth 0.619 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35787713436576785}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@4.31; L@1.65; W@1.28; W@1.63; L@3.17. Wealth 0.588 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8323493541669141}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.31; L@1.65; W@1.28; W@1.63; L@3.17; W@1.30. Wealth 0.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41120138736585055}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.65; W@1.28; W@1.63; L@3.17; W@1.30; L@2.72. Wealth 0.610 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.84029930464925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@1.63; L@3.17; W@1.30; L@2.72; W@1.32. Wealth 0.668 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6254945186750349}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@3.17; W@1.30; L@2.72; W@1.32; W@1.77. Wealth 0.745 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6651614952926829}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.17; W@1.30; L@2.72; W@1.32; W@1.77; L@1.45. Wealth 0.745 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.638620776533423}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.72; W@1.32; W@1.77; L@1.45; W@1.40. Wealth 0.745 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5094721048736359}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.72; W@1.32; W@1.77; L@1.45; W@1.40; W@2.20. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8348480675525907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.77; L@1.45; W@1.40; W@2.20; W@1.36. Wealth 0.956 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6165633356032223}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@1.45; W@1.40; W@2.20; W@1.36; W@1.70. Wealth 0.990 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38628421517126244}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.40; W@2.20; W@1.36; W@1.70; W@2.70. Wealth 1.074 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2727079934688073}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.70 (win pays 2.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@2.20; W@1.36; W@1.70; W@2.70; L@3.17. Wealth 1.074 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29432851122824816}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.20; W@1.36; W@1.70; W@2.70; L@3.17; L@3.70. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6102464074876501}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.70; W@2.70; L@3.17; L@3.70; W@1.47. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.622310359178504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.13 (win pays 4.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@2.70; L@3.17; L@3.70; W@1.47; L@1.37. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21505264855949943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.70; L@3.17; L@3.70; W@1.47; L@1.37; L@5.13. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32154848744291575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.17; L@3.70; W@1.47; L@1.37; L@5.13; L@3.58. Wealth 0.921 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7686799982541872}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.70; W@1.47; L@1.37; L@5.13; L@3.58; W@1.13. Wealth 0.921 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4361578224484327}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@1.37; L@5.13; L@3.58; W@1.13; L@2.36. Wealth 0.921 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.801128581820489}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@5.13; L@3.58; W@1.13; L@2.36; W@1.31. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46605549371430754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.85 (win pays 2.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.13; L@3.58; W@1.13; L@2.36; W@1.31; W@2.39. Wealth 1.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2383874240663988}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.58; W@1.13; L@2.36; W@1.31; W@2.39; L@3.85. Wealth 1.098 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8095630752481827}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.22 (win pays 2.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; L@2.36; W@1.31; W@2.39; L@3.85; W@1.34. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2862057390974205}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@1.31; W@2.39; L@3.85; W@1.34; W@3.22. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5910053694891061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@2.39; L@3.85; W@1.34; W@3.22; W@1.58. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.654652773735603}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.39; L@3.85; W@1.34; W@3.22; W@1.58; W@1.39. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7335975044054832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.85; W@1.34; W@3.22; W@1.58; W@1.39; L@1.55. Wealth 0.821 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6638040947193669}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@3.22; W@1.58; W@1.39; L@1.55; W@1.32. Wealth 0.821 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7856504367028939}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.27 (win pays 3.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.22; W@1.58; W@1.39; L@1.55; W@1.32; W@1.29. Wealth 0.833 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24178004363724317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.39; L@1.55; W@1.32; W@1.29; L@4.27. Wealth 0.833 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7794100988371664}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.55; W@1.32; W@1.29; L@4.27; W@1.46. Wealth 0.948 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28646276548331495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; W@1.32; W@1.29; L@4.27; W@1.46; L@3.98. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7391364632021366}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.41 (win pays 4.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.29; L@4.27; W@1.46; L@3.98; L@1.29. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17204989674055077}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@4.27; W@1.46; L@3.98; L@1.29; L@5.41. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7592391677191506}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.10 (win pays 3.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.27; W@1.46; L@3.98; L@1.29; L@5.41; W@1.37. Wealth 0.933 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2353708969156914}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; L@3.98; L@1.29; L@5.41; W@1.37; L@4.10. Wealth 0.933 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6968319386700046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.82 (win pays 2.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.98; L@1.29; L@5.41; W@1.37; L@4.10; W@1.42. Wealth 0.933 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25051229794904634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; L@5.41; W@1.37; L@4.10; W@1.42; L@3.82. Wealth 0.933 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6351091642002563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.41; W@1.37; L@4.10; W@1.42; L@3.82; W@1.46. Wealth 0.933 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46454950294847885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; L@4.10; W@1.42; L@3.82; W@1.46; W@2.28. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6998385362010537}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.10; W@1.42; L@3.82; W@1.46; W@2.28; W@1.29. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7947365325744667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@3.82; W@1.46; W@2.28; W@1.29; W@1.22. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41828166387065757}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.82; W@1.46; W@2.28; W@1.29; W@1.22; W@2.70. Wealth 1.162 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5433768480808705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@2.28; W@1.29; W@1.22; W@2.70; W@1.58. Wealth 1.162 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7801676845290185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; W@1.29; W@1.22; W@2.70; W@1.58; W@1.44. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7144272882532448}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.22; W@2.70; W@1.58; W@1.44; W@1.51. Wealth 1.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4392059783095009}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@2.70; W@1.58; W@1.44; W@1.51; W@2.32. Wealth 1.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4584866429887632}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.70; W@1.58; W@1.44; W@1.51; W@2.32; W@2.14. Wealth 1.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6758983952111737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.38 (win pays 3.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.44; W@1.51; W@2.32; W@2.14; W@1.43. Wealth 1.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21924609368220904}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.84 (win pays 1.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.51; W@2.32; W@2.14; W@1.43; L@4.38. Wealth 1.416 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3875622572789429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@2.32; W@2.14; W@1.43; L@4.38; L@2.84. Wealth 1.345 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6862939225546126}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.55 (win pays 2.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; W@2.14; W@1.43; L@4.38; L@2.84; L@1.63. Wealth 1.076 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26274760239915923}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@1.43; L@4.38; L@2.84; L@1.63; W@3.55. Wealth 1.076 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8251582898490727}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@4.38; L@2.84; L@1.63; W@3.55; L@1.37. Wealth 0.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.528293529995278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.38; L@2.84; L@1.63; W@3.55; L@1.37; L@1.91. Wealth 0.646 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5571762727355755}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.65 (win pays 4.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.84; L@1.63; W@3.55; L@1.37; L@1.91; W@1.89. Wealth 0.675 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1540202009573908}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@3.55; L@1.37; L@1.91; W@1.89; L@5.65. Wealth 0.675 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37063418927677605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.55; L@1.37; L@1.91; W@1.89; L@5.65; W@2.78. Wealth 0.675 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42639857512420987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@1.91; W@1.89; L@5.65; W@2.78; W@2.25. Wealth 0.675 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42365970925790963}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.55 (win pays 5.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; W@1.89; L@5.65; W@2.78; W@2.25; W@2.15. Wealth 0.675 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15809549365076805}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4020760375831567}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3786552947414184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.18 (win pays 2.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@2.42. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.316948953487572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@2.42; W@3.18. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8082142884766542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@2.42; W@3.18; L@1.18. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6964033584790799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@2.42; W@3.18; L@1.18; W@1.63. Wealth 1.126 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6295993747283556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@2.42; W@3.18; L@1.18; W@1.63; L@1.37. Wealth 1.126 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.654652802021716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.86 (win pays 2.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.42; W@3.18; L@1.18; W@1.63; L@1.37; W@1.68. Wealth 1.240 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2480541189173353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.18; L@1.18; W@1.63; L@1.37; W@1.68; W@3.86. Wealth 1.240 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7425507564280925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.18; W@1.63; L@1.37; W@1.68; W@3.86; L@1.50. Wealth 0.992 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41462589632473745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@1.37; W@1.68; W@3.86; L@1.50; L@2.42. Wealth 0.992 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3686279615789007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.75 (win pays 2.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; W@1.68; W@3.86; L@1.50; L@2.42; L@2.98. Wealth 0.942 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2705336622312605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@3.86; L@1.50; L@2.42; L@2.98; L@3.75. Wealth 0.942 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8003211135493028}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.86; L@1.50; L@2.42; L@2.98; L@3.75; L@1.19. Wealth 0.942 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3012257200112133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.25 (win pays 4.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; L@2.42; L@2.98; L@3.75; L@1.19; L@3.72. Wealth 0.895 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2108168508106953}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; L@2.98; L@3.75; L@1.19; L@3.72; W@5.25. Wealth 1.085 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8482665890250997}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.23 (win pays 3.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.98; L@3.75; L@1.19; L@3.72; W@5.25; L@1.29. Wealth 0.760 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21037059507973294}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.75 (win pays 3.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.75; L@1.19; L@3.72; W@5.25; L@1.29; L@4.23. Wealth 0.760 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21001717261884675}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; L@3.72; W@5.25; L@1.29; L@4.23; W@4.75. Wealth 0.760 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5972120624065979}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.45 (win pays 5.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; W@5.25; L@1.29; L@4.23; W@4.75; W@1.51. Wealth 0.760 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1585690736988775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.10 (win pays 3.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.25; L@1.29; L@4.23; W@4.75; W@1.51; L@6.45. Wealth 0.760 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27931423406778666}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.81 (win pays 2.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; L@4.23; W@4.75; W@1.51; L@6.45; L@4.10. Wealth 0.722 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24379751779929948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.23; W@4.75; W@1.51; L@6.45; L@4.10; L@3.81. Wealth 0.722 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7551405531593335}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.75; W@1.51; L@6.45; L@4.10; L@3.81; L@1.25. Wealth 0.722 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.620211030572329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@6.45; L@4.10; L@3.81; L@1.25; W@1.81. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6706017274059236}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.45; L@4.10; L@3.81; L@1.25; W@1.81; L@1.28. Wealth 0.809 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26375464546142213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.57 (win pays 3.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.10; L@3.81; L@1.25; W@1.81; L@1.28; W@4.11. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2424199450754681}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.81; L@1.25; W@1.81; L@1.28; W@4.11; L@4.57. Wealth 0.888 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6292647016066502}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; W@1.81; L@1.28; W@4.11; L@4.57; L@1.42. Wealth 0.888 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7760137089956118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; L@1.28; W@4.11; L@4.57; L@1.42; W@1.36. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4109092575858325}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.28; W@4.11; L@4.57; L@1.42; W@1.36; L@2.33. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34831424527642907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.11; L@4.57; L@1.42; W@1.36; L@2.33; W@2.80. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6336996803648844}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.10 (win pays 5.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.57; L@1.42; W@1.36; L@2.33; W@2.80; W@1.50. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16503239162345315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 7.06 (win pays 6.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; W@1.36; L@2.33; W@2.80; W@1.50; L@6.10. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1513592503852609}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@2.33; W@2.80; W@1.50; L@6.10; L@7.06. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5486517298551066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; W@2.80; W@1.50; L@6.10; L@7.06; L@1.76. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3938716388113383}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.80; W@1.50; L@6.10; L@7.06; L@1.76; W@2.27. Wealth 0.935 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5506388408977317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@6.10; L@7.06; L@1.76; W@2.27; W@1.86. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4228011105330969}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.10; L@7.06; L@1.76; W@2.27; W@1.86; L@2.27. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6922458012005444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.06; L@1.76; W@2.27; W@1.86; L@2.27; L@1.25. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5409524062015708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@2.27; W@1.86; L@2.27; L@1.25; W@1.61. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29508861611159987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; W@1.86; L@2.27; L@1.25; W@1.61; L@3.56. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7472810399296548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; L@2.27; L@1.25; W@1.61; L@3.56; W@1.30. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6930362980519109}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.72 (win pays 3.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; L@1.25; W@1.61; L@3.56; W@1.30; W@1.38. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19871821274815987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; W@1.61; L@3.56; W@1.30; W@1.38; W@4.72. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6359765248297177}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.12 (win pays 5.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@3.56; W@1.30; W@1.38; W@4.72; W@1.58. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17355870238758006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.56; W@1.30; W@1.38; W@4.72; W@1.58; L@6.12. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8091082841890708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.38; W@4.72; W@1.58; L@6.12; W@1.19. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6566981684950365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@4.72; W@1.58; L@6.12; W@1.19; W@1.42. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5031102745857148}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.72; W@1.58; L@6.12; W@1.19; W@1.42; L@1.86. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27941250291997954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@6.12; W@1.19; W@1.42; L@1.86; L@4.04. Wealth 0.927 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7689081488923035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.54 (win pays 2.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.12; W@1.19; W@1.42; L@1.86; L@4.04; L@1.40. Wealth 0.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3018091193322766}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.42; L@1.86; L@4.04; L@1.40; L@3.54. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38788849015571747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.61 (win pays 3.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@1.86; L@4.04; L@1.40; L@3.54; L@2.68. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1956016129344809}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.91 (win pays 1.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@4.04; L@1.40; L@3.54; L@2.68; L@4.61. Wealth 0.704 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39237439830916154}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.04; L@1.40; L@3.54; L@2.68; L@4.61; L@2.91. Wealth 0.669 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6835437206605856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; L@3.54; L@2.68; L@4.61; L@2.91; W@1.51. Wealth 0.686 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7582524723843436}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.54; L@2.68; L@4.61; L@2.91; W@1.51; W@1.47. Wealth 0.751 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4939235068708693}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.68; L@4.61; L@2.91; W@1.51; W@1.47; W@2.08. Wealth 0.751 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8147228084973241}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.61; L@2.91; W@1.51; W@1.47; W@2.08; W@1.34. Wealth 0.827 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8205719088520627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.65 (win pays 3.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.91; W@1.51; W@1.47; W@2.08; W@1.34; W@1.24. Wealth 0.837 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22034901355549366}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.47; W@2.08; W@1.34; W@1.24; L@4.65. Wealth 0.837 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.263608235019754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@2.08; W@1.34; W@1.24; L@4.65; L@4.11. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6990011326103018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; W@1.34; W@1.24; L@4.65; L@4.11; L@1.38. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5377027607120929}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.07 (win pays 3.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.24; L@4.65; L@4.11; L@1.38; W@1.62. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24522812322091594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@4.65; L@4.11; L@1.38; W@1.62; L@4.07. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35092063863508083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.33 (win pays 4.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.65; L@4.11; L@1.38; W@1.62; L@4.07; W@2.67. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17283582136955514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.39 (win pays 4.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.11; L@1.38; W@1.62; L@4.07; W@2.67; L@5.33. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20375863375227238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.62; L@4.07; W@2.67; L@5.33; L@5.39. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6590903328895484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@4.07; W@2.67; L@5.33; L@5.39; W@1.41. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5283684969276097}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.07; W@2.67; L@5.33; L@5.39; W@1.41; L@1.76. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7168505768462237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.05 (win pays 2.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.67; L@5.33; L@5.39; W@1.41; L@1.76; W@1.20. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32668536923261615}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.82 (win pays 1.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.33; L@5.39; W@1.41; L@1.76; W@1.20; L@3.05. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3727380492270983}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.61 (win pays 4.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.39; W@1.41; L@1.76; W@1.20; L@3.05; L@2.82. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18844353445370426}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@1.76; W@1.20; L@3.05; L@2.82; L@5.61. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39826166316155576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; W@1.20; L@3.05; L@2.82; L@5.61; L@2.19. Wealth 0.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8151681655810127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; L@3.05; L@2.82; L@5.61; L@2.19; W@1.23. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8439179125720672}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.65 (win pays 3.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.05; L@2.82; L@5.61; L@2.19; W@1.23; W@1.18. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22698485238339353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.92 (win pays 2.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.82; L@5.61; L@2.19; W@1.23; W@1.18; L@4.65. Wealth 0.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.288510117436899}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.61; L@2.19; W@1.23; W@1.18; L@4.65; L@3.92. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33393273910689364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; W@1.23; W@1.18; L@4.65; L@3.92; W@2.92. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3208368526249018}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; W@1.18; L@4.65; L@3.92; W@2.92; L@2.70. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7578138018012185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@4.65; L@3.92; W@2.92; L@2.70; W@1.25. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8077739441743722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.65; L@3.92; W@2.92; L@2.70; W@1.25; W@1.09. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6904934266818562}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.39 (win pays 3.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.92; W@2.92; L@2.70; W@1.25; W@1.09; L@1.51. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25357276565537085}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.92; L@2.70; W@1.25; W@1.09; L@1.51; L@4.39. Wealth 0.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5503017981428876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; W@1.25; W@1.09; L@1.51; L@4.39; W@2.01. Wealth 0.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5782794342519539}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.09; L@1.51; L@4.39; W@2.01; L@1.62. Wealth 0.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7336388848333641}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.62 (win pays 4.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; L@1.51; L@4.39; W@2.01; L@1.62; W@1.30. Wealth 0.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16281806025155868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@4.39; W@2.01; L@1.62; W@1.30; L@5.62. Wealth 0.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6742308818115605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.39; W@2.01; L@1.62; W@1.30; L@5.62; L@1.60. Wealth 0.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6548103178981342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; L@1.62; W@1.30; L@5.62; L@1.60; W@1.51. Wealth 0.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7499428731074335}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.72 (win pays 4.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; W@1.30; L@5.62; L@1.60; W@1.51; W@1.19. Wealth 0.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19194448869108438}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@5.62; L@1.60; W@1.51; W@1.19; L@5.72. Wealth 0.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8010583089218982}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.62; L@1.60; W@1.51; W@1.19; L@5.72; W@1.25. Wealth 0.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6119488480211525}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; W@1.51; W@1.19; L@5.72; W@1.25; W@1.83. Wealth 0.653 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47259908958688446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.03 (win pays 4.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.19; L@5.72; W@1.25; W@1.83; W@2.13. Wealth 0.653 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1922345859969697}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@5.72; W@1.25; W@1.83; W@2.13; L@5.03. Wealth 0.653 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6312651893828027}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.72; W@1.25; W@1.83; W@2.13; L@5.03; L@1.73. Wealth 0.555 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5695925777266426}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.83; W@2.13; L@5.03; L@1.73; W@1.99. Wealth 0.638 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8445921020705169}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.76 (win pays 3.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2124683090136332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.57 (win pays 3.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2107025597944327}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@4.57. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37505201000061517}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@4.57; L@2.88. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6963352290338771}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@4.57; L@2.88; W@1.26. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5301898714611484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@4.57; L@2.88; W@1.26; W@1.98. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7931186779689782}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@4.57; L@2.88; W@1.26; W@1.98; L@1.26. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5565284587872739}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.57; L@2.88; W@1.26; W@1.98; L@1.26; W@1.93. Wealth 1.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34629002428951927}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.88; W@1.26; W@1.98; L@1.26; W@1.93; W@2.50. Wealth 1.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4084815887750157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@1.98; L@1.26; W@1.93; W@2.50; W@2.73. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8090736054645834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@1.26; W@1.93; W@2.50; W@2.73; W@1.10. Wealth 1.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8295585039690643}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.26; W@1.93; W@2.50; W@2.73; W@1.10; L@1.38. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3694546097030859}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.93; W@2.50; W@2.73; W@1.10; L@1.38; W@2.57. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4692554420799362}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.50; W@2.73; W@1.10; L@1.38; W@2.57; L@1.90. Wealth 0.711 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8208321563772352}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.73; W@1.10; L@1.38; W@2.57; L@1.90; W@1.30. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7762351012654608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.53 (win pays 4.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; L@1.38; W@2.57; L@1.90; W@1.30; W@1.15. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19188117604001095}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@2.57; L@1.90; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.53. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.544520143563842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.57; L@1.90; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.53; W@1.94. Wealth 0.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5493631886299215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.53; W@1.94; W@1.68. Wealth 0.789 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8182254886334553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.53; W@1.94; W@1.68; W@1.38. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5187454973755761}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@5.53; W@1.94; W@1.68; W@1.38; L@1.92. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4303883393691864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.53; W@1.94; W@1.68; W@1.38; L@1.92; W@2.26. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7507450267249497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; W@1.68; W@1.38; L@1.92; W@2.26; W@1.32. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7698027195849415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@1.38; L@1.92; W@2.26; W@1.32; L@1.17. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4237389175252405}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.38 (win pays 3.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@1.92; W@2.26; W@1.32; L@1.17; W@2.26. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23309649557334153}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; W@2.26; W@1.32; L@1.17; W@2.26; L@4.38. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7669150745923998}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.46 (win pays 2.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.26; W@1.32; L@1.17; W@2.26; L@4.38; L@1.26. Wealth 0.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32135904396801573}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.75 (win pays 3.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@1.17; W@2.26; L@4.38; L@1.26; L@3.46. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22431727139247487}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.19 (win pays 3.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; W@2.26; L@4.38; L@1.26; L@3.46; W@4.75. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2214650760164123}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.26; L@4.38; L@1.26; L@3.46; W@4.75; L@4.19. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8154293211101}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.62 (win pays 3.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.38; L@1.26; L@3.46; W@4.75; L@4.19; W@1.41. Wealth 0.971 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.191694999121831}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.26; L@3.46; W@4.75; L@4.19; W@1.41; L@4.62. Wealth 0.971 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6773106213902227}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.46; W@4.75; L@4.19; W@1.41; L@4.62; W@1.62. Wealth 1.061 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5307306754954808}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.75; L@4.19; W@1.41; L@4.62; W@1.62; W@2.07. Wealth 1.175 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5155519219130408}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.19; W@1.41; L@4.62; W@1.62; W@2.07; L@1.66. Wealth 1.175 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7925456808304855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@4.62; W@1.62; W@2.07; L@1.66; W@1.41. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6959553822387285}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.62; W@1.62; W@2.07; L@1.66; W@1.41; W@1.29. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7642622107863054}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; W@2.07; L@1.66; W@1.41; W@1.29; W@1.25. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6922201964750628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; L@1.66; W@1.41; W@1.29; W@1.25; L@1.45. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6866832470998457}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.53 (win pays 2.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.41; W@1.29; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2979446289013944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.49 (win pays 3.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.29; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; L@3.53. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24049260975925735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; L@3.53; L@4.49. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8324331453279428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; L@3.53; L@4.49; W@1.37. Wealth 1.515 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.513265551122213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.38; L@3.53; L@4.49; W@1.37; L@2.05. Wealth 1.439 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.610508038600618}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@3.53; L@4.49; W@1.37; L@2.05; W@1.54. Wealth 1.439 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8073969874477613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.53; L@4.49; W@1.37; L@2.05; W@1.54; W@1.36. Wealth 1.595 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7850069098224073}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.49; W@1.37; L@2.05; W@1.54; W@1.36; W@1.44. Wealth 1.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36078465526646386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; L@2.05; W@1.54; W@1.36; W@1.44; W@2.51. Wealth 1.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3037209563144244}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; W@1.54; W@1.36; W@1.44; W@2.51; W@3.45. Wealth 1.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5349824835991419}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.87 (win pays 1.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.36; W@1.44; W@2.51; W@3.45; L@1.95. Wealth 1.716 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3846549004435087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.44; W@2.51; W@3.45; L@1.95; W@2.87. Wealth 1.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6059792560493806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@2.51; W@3.45; L@1.95; W@2.87; W@1.57. Wealth 1.877 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5387547946693427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.51; W@3.45; L@1.95; W@2.87; W@1.57; L@1.97. Wealth 1.783 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31309096506314205}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.45; L@1.95; W@2.87; W@1.57; L@1.97; W@3.47. Wealth 2.004 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5690086554911313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.95; W@2.87; W@1.57; L@1.97; W@3.47; W@1.66. Wealth 2.004 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4576650882554182}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.87; W@1.57; L@1.97; W@3.47; W@1.66; L@2.43. Wealth 1.803 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5034019914450489}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@1.97; W@3.47; W@1.66; L@2.43; W@2.13. Wealth 1.905 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4174604236146907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@3.47; W@1.66; L@2.43; W@2.13; L@2.67. Wealth 1.810 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8489637220599101}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.21 (win pays 2.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.47; W@1.66; L@2.43; W@2.13; L@2.67; L@1.23. Wealth 1.448 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27955841474683063}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@2.43; W@2.13; L@2.67; L@1.23; W@3.21. Wealth 1.448 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5967131445513933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.43; W@2.13; L@2.67; L@1.23; W@3.21; W@1.88. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5988712714126098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.13; L@2.67; L@1.23; W@3.21; W@1.88; W@1.57. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5243278648656797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; L@1.23; W@3.21; W@1.88; W@1.57; W@1.74. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7175455148953731}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.23; W@3.21; W@1.88; W@1.57; W@1.74; W@1.35. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22468722894684193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.21; W@1.88; W@1.57; W@1.74; W@1.35; L@4.15. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5605179067542693}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; W@1.57; W@1.74; W@1.35; L@4.15; W@1.95. Wealth 1.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7325594342116565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; W@1.74; W@1.35; L@4.15; W@1.95; W@1.47. Wealth 1.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49919666583020905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.51 (win pays 2.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.74; W@1.35; L@4.15; W@1.95; W@1.47; W@1.71. Wealth 1.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31122901053077195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@4.15; W@1.95; W@1.47; W@1.71; L@3.51. Wealth 1.826 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5464597577594282}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; W@1.95; W@1.47; W@1.71; L@3.51; W@2.06. Wealth 2.019 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8093768534404907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; W@1.47; W@1.71; L@3.51; W@2.06; W@1.18. Wealth 2.019 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7171782006351518}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.71; L@3.51; W@2.06; W@1.18; W@1.49. Wealth 2.167 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5259909359741848}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@3.51; W@2.06; W@1.18; W@1.49; W@2.13. Wealth 2.413 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36518907662830075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.51; W@2.06; W@1.18; W@1.49; W@2.13; L@2.75. Wealth 2.413 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4767687922552356}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.56 (win pays 3.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.18; W@1.49; W@2.13; L@2.75; W@2.03. Wealth 2.413 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23783505004068672}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@1.49; W@2.13; L@2.75; W@2.03; L@4.56. Wealth 2.413 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7323670229018322}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@2.13; L@2.75; W@2.03; L@4.56; W@1.16. Wealth 2.413 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5918594193702533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.13; L@2.75; W@2.03; L@4.56; W@1.16; W@1.74. Wealth 2.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8199708744976771}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.75; W@2.03; L@4.56; W@1.16; W@1.74; W@1.17. Wealth 2.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42197463736025276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.29 (win pays 3.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; L@4.56; W@1.16; W@1.74; W@1.17; L@2.05. Wealth 2.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24457914006223708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.56; W@1.16; W@1.74; W@1.17; L@2.05; L@4.29. Wealth 2.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7065711203567461}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@1.74; W@1.17; L@2.05; L@4.29; W@1.23. Wealth 2.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7431429390713827}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.74; W@1.17; L@2.05; L@4.29; W@1.23; L@1.37. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44627411730413125}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@2.05; L@4.29; W@1.23; L@1.37; L@2.09. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.714232740827597}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@4.29; W@1.23; L@1.37; L@2.09; L@1.21. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5976233253006306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.29; W@1.23; L@1.37; L@2.09; L@1.21; W@1.63. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49806633636859754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.05 (win pays 4.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; L@1.37; L@2.09; L@1.21; W@1.63; W@1.92. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20424491012615928}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.95 (win pays 4.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@2.09; L@1.21; W@1.63; W@1.92; L@5.05. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17867034897186146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.09; L@1.21; W@1.63; W@1.92; L@5.05; L@5.95. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3395480473524527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; W@1.63; W@1.92; L@5.05; L@5.95; L@2.81. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3147756165587148}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; W@1.92; L@5.05; L@5.95; L@2.81; L@3.00. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4083973133166885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; L@5.05; L@5.95; L@2.81; L@3.00; L@2.13. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5561018490359372}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.05; L@5.95; L@2.81; L@3.00; L@2.13; W@1.55. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41072596878248435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.00 (win pays 3.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.95; L@2.81; L@3.00; L@2.13; W@1.55; L@2.10. Wealth 2.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28536923404646697}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; L@3.00; L@2.13; W@1.55; L@2.10; L@4.00. Wealth 2.258 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47492127008028917}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.12 (win pays 4.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.00; L@2.13; W@1.55; L@2.10; L@4.00; W@2.04. Wealth 2.258 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19108525880691954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@1.55; L@2.10; L@4.00; W@2.04; L@5.12. Wealth 2.258 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46538035517866216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.69 (win pays 4.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@2.10; L@4.00; W@2.04; L@5.12; W@1.97. Wealth 2.258 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1872904716222908}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; L@4.00; W@2.04; L@5.12; W@1.97; L@5.69. Wealth 2.258 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8273960239725617}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.00; W@2.04; L@5.12; W@1.97; L@5.69; W@1.36. Wealth 2.501 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8120291897254879}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.64 (win pays 2.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.282765571187806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.39 (win pays 5.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16860877031144234}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.76 (win pays 2.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@6.39. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2558748878884999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@6.39; L@3.76. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7196174583907519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@6.39; L@3.76; L@1.18. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3176543807629384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@6.39; L@3.76; L@1.18; W@3.47. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7913284394647891}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@6.39; L@3.76; L@1.18; W@3.47; W@1.12. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3624117295649908}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.39; L@3.76; L@1.18; W@3.47; W@1.12; L@2.79. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7105111245439973}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.53 (win pays 4.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.76; L@1.18; W@3.47; W@1.12; L@2.79; W@1.50. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1587061035178151}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.18; W@3.47; W@1.12; L@2.79; W@1.50; L@5.53. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4183543491633466}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.47; W@1.12; L@2.79; W@1.50; L@5.53; W@2.14. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4364245737092859}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; L@2.79; W@1.50; L@5.53; W@2.14; L@2.07. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32830495330125997}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.79; W@1.50; L@5.53; W@2.14; L@2.07; L@3.45. Wealth 1.148 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3526035630028942}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@5.53; W@2.14; L@2.07; L@3.45; L@3.09. Wealth 1.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7886965648604133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.53; W@2.14; L@2.07; L@3.45; L@3.09; W@1.43. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39478131950100015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; L@2.07; L@3.45; L@3.09; W@1.43; L@2.36. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3734335604075901}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; L@3.45; L@3.09; W@1.43; L@2.36; L@2.57. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49906224079994843}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.45; L@3.09; W@1.43; L@2.36; L@2.57; L@1.84. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3106879972114235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.74 (win pays 2.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@1.43; L@2.36; L@2.57; L@1.84; W@3.23. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24661426029462358}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@2.36; L@2.57; L@1.84; W@3.23; L@3.74. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7870787343449478}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@2.57; L@1.84; W@3.23; L@3.74; W@1.11. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6964560727536845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@1.84; W@3.23; L@3.74; W@1.11; W@1.36. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7601339089499561}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; W@3.23; L@3.74; W@1.11; W@1.36; W@1.14. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5641836392755692}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.23; L@3.74; W@1.11; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@1.60. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7363591075761519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.74; W@1.11; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@1.60; W@1.31. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7908214525604038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.05 (win pays 4.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@1.60; W@1.31; L@1.11. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20972287060270353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.14; L@1.60; W@1.31; L@1.11; L@5.05. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30579930018011736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@1.60; W@1.31; L@1.11; L@5.05; L@2.85. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7043921747894702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; W@1.31; L@1.11; L@5.05; L@2.85; L@1.25. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7419995219245882}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@1.11; L@5.05; L@2.85; L@1.25; L@1.22. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5892859717781401}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.11; L@5.05; L@2.85; L@1.25; L@1.22; W@1.64. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.482913815263338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.05; L@2.85; L@1.25; L@1.22; W@1.64; L@2.07. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28335317261724563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.85; L@1.25; L@1.22; W@1.64; L@2.07; W@3.10. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7556702825410359}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; L@1.22; W@1.64; L@2.07; W@3.10; W@1.24. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8180193576658762}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; W@1.64; L@2.07; W@3.10; W@1.24; W@1.32. Wealth 1.309 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48414218283256594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@2.07; W@3.10; W@1.24; W@1.32; L@2.31. Wealth 1.178 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3862770971248883}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; W@3.10; W@1.24; W@1.32; L@2.31; L@2.57. Wealth 1.178 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2670251072085818}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.10; W@1.24; W@1.32; L@2.31; L@2.57; L@3.47. Wealth 1.178 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8457212662883251}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.05 (win pays 2.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.32; L@2.31; L@2.57; L@3.47; W@1.29. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3109968636836572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.31; L@2.57; L@3.47; W@1.29; L@3.05. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7037495641648099}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.31; L@2.57; L@3.47; W@1.29; L@3.05; L@1.43. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8255918584651806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@3.47; W@1.29; L@3.05; L@1.43; W@1.20. Wealth 1.280 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7157215278516483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; W@1.29; L@3.05; L@1.43; W@1.20; W@1.44. Wealth 1.308 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6053271355251953}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@3.05; L@1.43; W@1.20; W@1.44; W@1.70. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3370085190789633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.05; L@1.43; W@1.20; W@1.44; W@1.70; W@3.19. Wealth 1.502 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8116738378399131}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@1.20; W@1.44; W@1.70; W@3.19; W@1.32. Wealth 1.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3134134441796459}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.44; W@1.70; W@3.19; W@1.32; W@2.85. Wealth 1.599 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6735974381993238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.70; W@3.19; W@1.32; W@2.85; W@1.58. Wealth 1.692 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5816244824663287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@3.19; W@1.32; W@2.85; W@1.58; W@1.97. Wealth 1.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5057004342455607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.19; W@1.32; W@2.85; W@1.58; W@1.97; W@1.79. Wealth 1.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4637968831785443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@2.85; W@1.58; W@1.97; W@1.79; W@2.25. Wealth 2.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8253990624244245}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.85; W@1.58; W@1.97; W@1.79; W@2.25; W@1.35. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22612393062227662}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.97; W@1.79; W@2.25; W@1.35; L@4.08. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.454984525920489}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.77 (win pays 4.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; W@1.79; W@2.25; W@1.35; L@4.08; W@1.98. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15901083544191758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@2.25; W@1.35; L@4.08; W@1.98; L@5.77. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5120198984817469}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.25; W@1.35; L@4.08; W@1.98; L@5.77; W@1.79. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48557825334232296}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.76 (win pays 3.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@4.08; W@1.98; L@5.77; W@1.79; W@1.81. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18789278900928058}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; W@1.98; L@5.77; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@4.76. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5435353099068267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@5.77; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@4.76; L@1.72. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5908289923144183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.77; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@4.76; L@1.72; L@1.58. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4480346650967387}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@1.81; W@4.76; L@1.72; L@1.58; W@2.25. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8274214583781824}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; W@4.76; L@1.72; L@1.58; W@2.25; L@1.11. Wealth 2.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7903637036597694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.76; L@1.72; L@1.58; W@2.25; L@1.11; W@1.32. Wealth 2.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40927668749630075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.72; L@1.58; W@2.25; L@1.11; W@1.32; L@2.73. Wealth 2.263 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6252663992515445}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; W@2.25; L@1.11; W@1.32; L@2.73; L@1.68. Wealth 2.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6282029308138375}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.25; L@1.11; W@1.32; L@2.73; L@1.68; L@1.51. Wealth 2.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4900533369539676}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.11; W@1.32; L@2.73; L@1.68; L@1.51; L@1.73. Wealth 2.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7930595832308303}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.73; L@1.68; L@1.51; L@1.73; W@1.43. Wealth 2.297 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6458822503984329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@1.68; L@1.51; L@1.73; W@1.43; W@1.61. Wealth 2.368 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.775246545363992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; L@1.51; L@1.73; W@1.43; W@1.61; W@1.40. Wealth 2.556 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7409452852021916}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.80 (win pays 3.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@1.73; W@1.43; W@1.61; W@1.40; W@1.41. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22503888420244372}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; W@1.43; W@1.61; W@1.40; W@1.41; L@4.80. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27543172000442523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.35 (win pays 2.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@1.61; W@1.40; W@1.41; L@4.80; L@3.72. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28769643048522364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.40; W@1.41; L@4.80; L@3.72; W@3.35. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5738422176226723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.11 (win pays 3.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; W@1.41; L@4.80; L@3.72; W@3.35; W@1.59. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22673940618983077}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.29 (win pays 3.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@4.80; L@3.72; W@3.35; W@1.59; L@4.11. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22688870707270778}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.80; L@3.72; W@3.35; W@1.59; L@4.11; L@4.29. Wealth 2.661 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7705209897280558}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; W@3.35; W@1.59; L@4.11; L@4.29; W@1.33. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5443022458164752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.35; W@1.59; L@4.11; L@4.29; W@1.33; W@1.82. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6954320586143548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; L@4.11; L@4.29; W@1.33; W@1.82; W@1.35. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8184670755822521}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.11; L@4.29; W@1.33; W@1.82; W@1.35; W@1.06. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5553811605698483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.29; W@1.33; W@1.82; W@1.35; W@1.06; L@1.60. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4914033624505414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.82; W@1.35; W@1.06; L@1.60; W@1.75. Wealth 2.705 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6558430122094906}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; W@1.35; W@1.06; L@1.60; W@1.75; L@1.72. Wealth 2.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5089269678527626}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@1.06; L@1.60; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.06. Wealth 2.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5554481578673951}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.93 (win pays 5.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; L@1.60; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.06; L@2.02. Wealth 2.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1631321722583171}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.06; L@2.02; L@6.93. Wealth 2.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5439820819583093}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.63 (win pays 3.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.06; L@2.02; L@6.93; W@2.08. Wealth 2.272 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21152450860185884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.34 (win pays 4.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.72; W@2.06; L@2.02; L@6.93; W@2.08; L@4.63. Wealth 2.272 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18320703951902623}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; L@2.02; L@6.93; W@2.08; L@4.63; L@5.34. Wealth 2.272 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5934756231596884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; L@6.93; W@2.08; L@4.63; L@5.34; L@1.68. Wealth 2.272 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8444949141212209}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.93; W@2.08; L@4.63; L@5.34; L@1.68; L@1.23. Wealth 1.817 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40768883196643324}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.25 (win pays 3.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; L@4.63; L@5.34; L@1.68; L@1.23; L@2.77. Wealth 1.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2552318552866336}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.75 (win pays 3.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.63; L@5.34; L@1.68; L@1.23; L@2.77; L@4.25. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.191693977326941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.34; L@1.68; L@1.23; L@2.77; L@4.25; L@4.75. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38676203743986487}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.56 (win pays 4.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; L@1.23; L@2.77; L@4.25; L@4.75; L@2.31. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16403990326234524}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.23; L@2.77; L@4.25; L@4.75; L@2.31; L@5.56. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7559260837991539}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.77; L@4.25; L@4.75; L@2.31; L@5.56; L@1.50. Wealth 1.148 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6390743629881486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.25; L@4.75; L@2.31; L@5.56; L@1.50; L@1.45. Wealth 1.148 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7218410618171824}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.86 (win pays 2.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.75; L@2.31; L@5.56; L@1.50; L@1.45; W@1.57. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22937516814725725}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.50 (win pays 2.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2647320319754168}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7512821579935439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.46. Wealth 1.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6611256630685202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.46; W@1.54. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7388852779729465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.46; W@1.54; W@1.50. Wealth 1.233 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5288325871145966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.46; W@1.54; W@1.50; L@1.69. Wealth 1.233 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6464710047640754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.29 (win pays 4.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.50; W@1.46; W@1.54; W@1.50; L@1.69; W@1.36. Wealth 1.233 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20601297823258058}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.40 (win pays 2.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@1.54; W@1.50; L@1.69; W@1.36; L@5.29. Wealth 1.233 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3305193814960173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.50; L@1.69; W@1.36; L@5.29; L@3.40. Wealth 1.171 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5606357314906455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.78 (win pays 4.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.69; W@1.36; L@5.29; L@3.40; W@1.94. Wealth 1.281 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1803523783374495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.82 (win pays 1.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; W@1.36; L@5.29; L@3.40; W@1.94; L@5.78. Wealth 1.281 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3936482668327671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.21 (win pays 5.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@5.29; L@3.40; W@1.94; L@5.78; W@2.82. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17139853279266215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.29; L@3.40; W@1.94; L@5.78; W@2.82; L@6.21. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37534173119554315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.40; W@1.94; L@5.78; W@2.82; L@6.21; L@2.51. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5458952547966521}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.98 (win pays 5.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@5.78; W@2.82; L@6.21; L@2.51; W@2.07. Wealth 1.547 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15937144837828196}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.78; W@2.82; L@6.21; L@2.51; W@2.07; L@6.98. Wealth 1.547 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8271974868733796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.82; L@6.21; L@2.51; W@2.07; L@6.98; W@1.32. Wealth 1.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41895483079390383}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.21; L@2.51; W@2.07; L@6.98; W@1.32; L@2.31. Wealth 1.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7309591969002892}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.51; W@2.07; L@6.98; W@1.32; L@2.31; W@1.24. Wealth 1.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6632149600012638}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; L@6.98; W@1.32; L@2.31; W@1.24; W@1.64. Wealth 1.858 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4089896534979621}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.98; W@1.32; L@2.31; W@1.24; W@1.64; L@2.32. Wealth 1.858 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5078944006537133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@2.31; W@1.24; W@1.64; L@2.32; L@2.04. Wealth 1.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7198270946140228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.31; W@1.24; W@1.64; L@2.32; L@2.04; W@1.40. Wealth 1.765 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42133976836719644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.64; L@2.32; L@2.04; W@1.40; L@2.54. Wealth 1.677 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5249775493472426}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@2.32; L@2.04; W@1.40; L@2.54; W@1.68. Wealth 1.677 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7998290723956702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.78 (win pays 2.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.32; L@2.04; W@1.40; L@2.54; W@1.68; W@1.40. Wealth 1.878 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29022566199466654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; W@1.40; L@2.54; W@1.68; W@1.40; L@3.78. Wealth 1.784 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39592371504055035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.54; W@1.68; W@1.40; L@3.78; L@2.67. Wealth 1.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39668597185510457}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.54; W@1.68; W@1.40; L@3.78; L@2.67; W@2.32. Wealth 1.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5359279611705314}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@1.40; L@3.78; L@2.67; W@2.32; W@2.10. Wealth 1.882 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.835963422717648}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.44 (win pays 2.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@3.78; L@2.67; W@2.32; W@2.10; W@1.18. Wealth 1.882 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2509681225644508}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.78; L@2.67; W@2.32; W@2.10; W@1.18; L@3.44. Wealth 1.882 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7227905710839871}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; W@2.32; W@2.10; W@1.18; L@3.44; L@1.21. Wealth 1.882 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7309341497362647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; W@2.10; W@1.18; L@3.44; L@1.21; W@1.45. Wealth 2.011 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6603411306195992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.10; W@1.18; L@3.44; L@1.21; W@1.45; L@1.64. Wealth 1.709 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5452227227240299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@3.44; L@1.21; W@1.45; L@1.64; W@2.03. Wealth 1.884 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8415293460350994}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.44; L@1.21; W@1.45; L@1.64; W@2.03; W@1.12. Wealth 1.884 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7438094535930343}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; W@1.45; L@1.64; W@2.03; W@1.12; W@1.15. Wealth 1.884 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4623611540381978}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.64; W@2.03; W@1.12; W@1.15; W@2.41. Wealth 2.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5754580619301468}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; W@2.03; W@1.12; W@1.15; W@2.41; W@1.76. Wealth 2.149 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40905176485450256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.03; W@1.12; W@1.15; W@2.41; W@1.76; W@2.69. Wealth 2.330 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.697293087526164}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.33 (win pays 5.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; W@1.15; W@2.41; W@1.76; W@2.69; L@1.47. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17049141394718653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.95 (win pays 2.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@2.41; W@1.76; W@2.69; L@1.47; L@6.33. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2651294965201647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.41; W@1.76; W@2.69; L@1.47; L@6.33; L@3.95. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22446366414699456}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.00 (win pays 5.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@2.69; L@1.47; L@6.33; L@3.95; L@3.80. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17453421276702086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.69; L@1.47; L@6.33; L@3.95; L@3.80; L@6.00. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7651272081367642}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.15 (win pays 2.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.47; L@6.33; L@3.95; L@3.80; L@6.00; W@1.32. Wealth 2.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34076717141454027}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.07 (win pays 3.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.33; L@3.95; L@3.80; L@6.00; W@1.32; W@3.15. Wealth 2.452 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2457362947320267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.95; L@3.80; L@6.00; W@1.32; W@3.15; L@4.07. Wealth 2.452 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2597887930367314}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.80; L@6.00; W@1.32; W@3.15; L@4.07; L@3.90. Wealth 2.452 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6259713277547346}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.00; W@1.32; W@3.15; L@4.07; L@3.90; W@1.80. Wealth 2.747 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6737134301899416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@3.15; L@4.07; L@3.90; W@1.80; W@1.48. Wealth 2.747 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8124486212324974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.15; L@4.07; L@3.90; W@1.80; W@1.48; L@1.15. Wealth 2.747 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7364657075024867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.07; L@3.90; W@1.80; W@1.48; L@1.15; W@1.41. Wealth 2.859 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5877632239902958}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.90; W@1.80; W@1.48; L@1.15; W@1.41; W@1.59. Wealth 2.859 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6172130837708197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; W@1.48; L@1.15; W@1.41; W@1.59; W@1.79. Wealth 3.199 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7082264708182773}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@1.15; W@1.41; W@1.59; W@1.79; W@1.55. Wealth 3.460 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5424064302528881}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.76 (win pays 3.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.15; W@1.41; W@1.59; W@1.79; W@1.55; L@1.75. Wealth 3.460 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2254855380133343}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.59; W@1.79; W@1.55; L@1.75; L@4.76. Wealth 3.460 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26926319504319046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.57 (win pays 3.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@1.79; W@1.55; L@1.75; L@4.76; L@3.62. Wealth 3.460 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20937095324452945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@1.55; L@1.75; L@4.76; L@3.62; L@4.57. Wealth 3.460 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.426269743347336}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@1.75; L@4.76; L@3.62; L@4.57; L@2.52. Wealth 3.287 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7130333873530287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; L@4.76; L@3.62; L@4.57; L@2.52; W@1.58. Wealth 3.667 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4606238340347272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.70 (win pays 5.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.76; L@3.62; L@4.57; L@2.52; W@1.58; L@2.33. Wealth 3.484 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1600848046534122}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.62; L@4.57; L@2.52; W@1.58; L@2.33; L@6.70. Wealth 3.484 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6140233569089003}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.69 (win pays 3.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.57; L@2.52; W@1.58; L@2.33; L@6.70; W@1.73. Wealth 3.739 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19191949622064206}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.55 (win pays 4.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.52; W@1.58; L@2.33; L@6.70; W@1.73; L@4.69. Wealth 3.739 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19889610257033857}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@2.33; L@6.70; W@1.73; L@4.69; L@5.55. Wealth 3.739 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4593523732999859}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.75 (win pays 4.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; L@6.70; W@1.73; L@4.69; L@5.55; W@2.26. Wealth 3.974 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1685212164638442}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.70; W@1.73; L@4.69; L@5.55; W@2.26; L@5.75. Wealth 3.974 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7897533456505959}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; L@4.69; L@5.55; W@2.26; L@5.75; W@1.16. Wealth 3.974 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4042191287611482}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.69; L@5.55; W@2.26; L@5.75; W@1.16; W@2.67. Wealth 4.305 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8079909934293418}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.55; W@2.26; L@5.75; W@1.16; W@2.67; W@1.30. Wealth 4.496 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7894975616093253}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.26; L@5.75; W@1.16; W@2.67; W@1.30; W@1.14. Wealth 4.496 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.771923490992059}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.75; W@1.16; W@2.67; W@1.30; W@1.14; W@1.23. Wealth 4.496 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7132400588886193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@2.67; W@1.30; W@1.14; W@1.23; W@1.58. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2402687954382855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.92 (win pays 3.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.67; W@1.30; W@1.14; W@1.23; W@1.58; L@3.63. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20891846420963944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.47 (win pays 5.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.14; W@1.23; W@1.58; L@3.63; L@4.92. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1622232521925582}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.07 (win pays 0.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@1.23; W@1.58; L@3.63; L@4.92; L@6.47. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.822975155080694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; W@1.58; L@3.63; L@4.92; L@6.47; W@1.07. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2747697453755905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@3.63; L@4.92; L@6.47; W@1.07; L@3.47. Wealth 5.013 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6908973040093813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.63; L@4.92; L@6.47; W@1.07; L@3.47; L@1.55. Wealth 4.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3346978044691937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.92; L@6.47; W@1.07; L@3.47; L@1.55; L@2.79. Wealth 4.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6151910525281048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.47; W@1.07; L@3.47; L@1.55; L@2.79; W@1.77. Wealth 4.589 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3209119681785042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.49 (win pays 2.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.07; L@3.47; L@1.55; L@2.79; W@1.77; L@2.74. Wealth 4.589 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2472722184423366}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.33 (win pays 2.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; L@1.55; L@2.79; W@1.77; L@2.74; L@3.49. Wealth 4.589 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34159564440068274}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; L@2.79; W@1.77; L@2.74; L@3.49; L@3.33. Wealth 4.360 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6174675270960899}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.79; W@1.77; L@2.74; L@3.49; L@3.33; W@1.59. Wealth 4.360 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.360557073087155}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.66 (win pays 2.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.74; L@3.49; L@3.33; W@1.59; L@3.14. Wealth 4.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26470722893270926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; L@3.49; L@3.33; W@1.59; L@3.14; L@3.66. Wealth 4.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5072143714077243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.48 (win pays 3.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.49; L@3.33; W@1.59; L@3.14; L@3.66; L@2.21. Wealth 3.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19512636654237647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.33; W@1.59; L@3.14; L@3.66; L@2.21; L@4.48. Wealth 3.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23433250116828105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.25 (win pays 2.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; L@3.14; L@3.66; L@2.21; L@4.48; L@3.72. Wealth 3.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28427481383473563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.14; L@3.66; L@2.21; L@4.48; L@3.72; W@3.25. Wealth 3.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6725124286743893}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.66; L@2.21; L@4.48; L@3.72; W@3.25; W@1.65. Wealth 4.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3807467831275493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; L@4.48; L@3.72; W@3.25; W@1.65; W@2.71. Wealth 4.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5731920843905206}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.48; L@3.72; W@3.25; W@1.65; W@2.71; L@1.57. Wealth 4.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5893176551547101}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; W@3.25; W@1.65; W@2.71; L@1.57; L@1.73. Wealth 3.884 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4124507002887542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.25; W@1.65; W@2.71; L@1.57; L@1.73; L@2.10. Wealth 3.884 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35827689266576757}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; W@2.71; L@1.57; L@1.73; L@2.10; L@3.00. Wealth 3.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5229987068370585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6405649915252244}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.62 (win pays 1.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41549813593502094}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.96 (win pays 3.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.62. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2298249963031549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.62; L@4.96. Wealth 0.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7930754620330849}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.95 (win pays 3.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.62; L@4.96; W@1.31. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20923700068389559}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.62; L@4.96; W@1.31; L@4.95. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47760258353987395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@2.62; L@4.96; W@1.31; L@4.95; W@1.84. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2933025697983549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.62; L@4.96; W@1.31; L@4.95; W@1.84; W@3.03. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2640773680122214}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.96 (win pays 2.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.96; W@1.31; L@4.95; W@1.84; W@3.03; L@3.73. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22490322605860627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@4.95; W@1.84; W@3.03; L@3.73; L@3.96. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5041881428148665}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.95; W@1.84; W@3.03; L@3.73; L@3.96; L@1.92. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8419848181360943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; W@3.03; L@3.73; L@3.96; L@1.92; L@1.13. Wealth 0.945 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5880339615434348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.03; L@3.73; L@3.96; L@1.92; L@1.13; W@1.76. Wealth 0.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6931649017695403}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.73; L@3.96; L@1.92; L@1.13; W@1.76; L@1.26. Wealth 0.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2752451483449188}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.47 (win pays 4.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.96; L@1.92; L@1.13; W@1.76; L@1.26; W@3.98. Wealth 1.127 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17708751939095815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.64 (win pays 2.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; L@1.13; W@1.76; L@1.26; W@3.98; L@5.47. Wealth 1.127 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3075195344287873}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.13; W@1.76; L@1.26; W@3.98; L@5.47; L@3.64. Wealth 1.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6180563562175342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; L@1.26; W@3.98; L@5.47; L@3.64; L@1.54. Wealth 1.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4777699050437687}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.26; W@3.98; L@5.47; L@3.64; L@1.54; L@1.83. Wealth 1.071 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5286129170458881}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.98; L@5.47; L@3.64; L@1.54; L@1.83; L@2.15. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4763869107266132}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.20 (win pays 3.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.47; L@3.64; L@1.54; L@1.83; L@2.15; W@2.05. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21052190024486583}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.50 (win pays 3.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@1.54; L@1.83; L@2.15; W@2.05; L@4.20. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2540069456710401}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.74 (win pays 0.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; L@1.83; L@2.15; W@2.05; L@4.20; W@4.50. Wealth 1.132 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6123912701638201}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; L@2.15; W@2.05; L@4.20; W@4.50; W@1.74. Wealth 1.216 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6738197363774696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; W@2.05; L@4.20; W@4.50; W@1.74; W@1.54. Wealth 1.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4214298695841394}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.07 (win pays 4.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@4.20; W@4.50; W@1.74; W@1.54; L@2.69. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20248783165544176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.78 (win pays 4.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.20; W@4.50; W@1.74; W@1.54; L@2.69; L@5.07. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1530345242488831}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.50; W@1.74; W@1.54; L@2.69; L@5.07; L@5.78. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33847804458531366}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.74; W@1.54; L@2.69; L@5.07; L@5.78; L@2.81. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.71016641632814}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@2.69; L@5.07; L@5.78; L@2.81; W@1.28. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7145926453118904}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.69; L@5.07; L@5.78; L@2.81; W@1.28; W@1.36. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6078693929664183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.07; L@5.78; L@2.81; W@1.28; W@1.36; L@1.79. Wealth 1.012 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5716126259757708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.83 (win pays 4.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.78; L@2.81; W@1.28; W@1.36; L@1.79; L@1.82. Wealth 0.961 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19687310225150284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; W@1.28; W@1.36; L@1.79; L@1.82; W@5.83. Wealth 1.193 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6229234862167073}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.05 (win pays 3.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@1.36; L@1.79; L@1.82; W@5.83; L@1.44. Wealth 1.193 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26813051043606406}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@1.79; L@1.82; W@5.83; L@1.44; L@4.05. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6367872633337832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.97 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.79; L@1.82; W@5.83; L@1.44; L@4.05; L@1.57. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7741619816113782}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; W@5.83; L@1.44; L@4.05; L@1.57; L@1.42. Wealth 0.907 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48808511712936176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.83; L@1.44; L@4.05; L@1.57; L@1.42; W@2.30. Wealth 1.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4625041502403634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; L@4.05; L@1.57; L@1.42; W@2.30; L@1.92. Wealth 1.024 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.514037369827835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.32 (win pays 4.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.05; L@1.57; L@1.42; W@2.30; L@1.92; W@2.23. Wealth 1.150 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1646281441549329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.57; L@1.42; W@2.30; L@1.92; W@2.23; L@5.32. Wealth 1.150 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3474851223457106}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; W@2.30; L@1.92; W@2.23; L@5.32; W@3.19. Wealth 1.276 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7320475404863508}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.67 (win pays 3.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.30; L@1.92; W@2.23; L@5.32; W@3.19; L@1.31. Wealth 1.276 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22949515754994138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; W@2.23; L@5.32; W@3.19; L@1.31; L@4.67. Wealth 1.276 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23045403061429062}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.23; L@5.32; W@3.19; L@1.31; L@4.67; L@4.83. Wealth 1.213 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5776259896983308}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.32; W@3.19; L@1.31; L@4.67; L@4.83; L@1.94. Wealth 1.031 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.394188278672158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.19; L@1.31; L@4.67; L@4.83; L@1.94; W@2.47. Wealth 1.031 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6266524624988429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@4.67; L@4.83; L@1.94; W@2.47; L@1.71. Wealth 0.928 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39983617644818226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.67; L@4.83; L@1.94; W@2.47; L@1.71; L@2.15. Wealth 0.928 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46723136827431855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.00 (win pays 3.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.83; L@1.94; W@2.47; L@1.71; L@2.15; W@2.07. Wealth 0.928 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2839017981376309}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@2.47; L@1.71; L@2.15; W@2.07; L@4.00. Wealth 0.881 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5735898178638829}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; L@1.71; L@2.15; W@2.07; L@4.00; W@1.65. Wealth 0.881 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8018484271279409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.93 (win pays 2.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.71; L@2.15; W@2.07; L@4.00; W@1.65; W@1.19. Wealth 0.881 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29288250750951195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; W@2.07; L@4.00; W@1.65; W@1.19; W@3.93. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6277994245781242}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.85 (win pays 2.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; L@4.00; W@1.65; W@1.19; W@3.93; W@1.39. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23104460523494927}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.00; W@1.65; W@1.19; W@3.93; W@1.39; L@3.85. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7937084007066082}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; W@1.19; W@3.93; W@1.39; L@3.85; L@1.19. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.658184059600464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@3.93; W@1.39; L@3.85; L@1.19; L@1.51. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7494575721369275}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.93; W@1.39; L@3.85; L@1.19; L@1.51; L@1.22. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41277310408081613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@3.85; L@1.19; L@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.34. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.671140403259512}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.85; L@1.19; L@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.34; L@1.39. Wealth 1.010 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4022743836762698}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.18 (win pays 2.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; L@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.34; L@1.39; W@2.68. Wealth 1.095 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29386484241829025}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.34; L@1.39; W@2.68; L@3.18. Wealth 1.095 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7073916768427086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; W@2.34; L@1.39; W@2.68; L@3.18; L@1.20. Wealth 1.095 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7395025952493974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.34; L@1.39; W@2.68; L@3.18; L@1.20; W@1.41. Wealth 1.139 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27927467279592677}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@2.68; L@3.18; L@1.20; W@1.41; L@3.07. Wealth 1.139 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5757587321733639}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.68; L@3.18; L@1.20; W@1.41; L@3.07; W@1.53. Wealth 1.139 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2907946248408074}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.83 (win pays 2.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.18; L@1.20; W@1.41; L@3.07; W@1.53; W@3.69. Wealth 1.293 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23297862933816876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; W@1.41; L@3.07; W@1.53; W@3.69; L@3.83. Wealth 1.293 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36366841996580723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.75 (win pays 2.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@3.07; W@1.53; W@3.69; L@3.83; W@2.98. Wealth 1.421 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28213903689046393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.21 (win pays 2.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.07; W@1.53; W@3.69; L@3.83; W@2.98; L@3.75. Wealth 1.421 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32007004816893414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@3.69; L@3.83; W@2.98; L@3.75; L@3.21. Wealth 1.421 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7265079697321164}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.69; L@3.83; W@2.98; L@3.75; L@3.21; W@1.38. Wealth 1.421 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8430510425401004}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.83; W@2.98; L@3.75; L@3.21; W@1.38; W@1.29. Wealth 1.543 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7941618800609587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.99 (win pays 3.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; L@3.75; L@3.21; W@1.38; W@1.29; L@1.35. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17951294358197356}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.75; L@3.21; W@1.38; W@1.29; L@1.35; L@4.99. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6364976726155436}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.21; W@1.38; W@1.29; L@1.35; L@4.99; W@1.62. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2493294729795155}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.29; L@1.35; L@4.99; W@1.62; L@3.62. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8346470707287105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.22 (win pays 5.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@1.35; L@4.99; W@1.62; L@3.62; W@1.35. Wealth 1.451 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16870634415806654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.35; L@4.99; W@1.62; L@3.62; W@1.35; L@6.22. Wealth 1.451 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3715096973281775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.99; W@1.62; L@3.62; W@1.35; L@6.22; W@2.98. Wealth 1.594 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7162702522997505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@3.62; W@1.35; L@6.22; W@2.98; W@1.28. Wealth 1.594 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41692410442787464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.62; W@1.35; L@6.22; W@2.98; W@1.28; L@2.57. Wealth 1.514 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5236514762069462}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@6.22; W@2.98; W@1.28; L@2.57; L@1.91. Wealth 1.514 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2837709057992699}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.22; W@2.98; W@1.28; L@2.57; L@1.91; L@3.08. Wealth 1.514 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3503649294748561}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@1.28; L@2.57; L@1.91; L@3.08; L@2.68. Wealth 1.514 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3304392096739983}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@2.57; L@1.91; L@3.08; L@2.68; W@2.85. Wealth 1.514 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7314805272512876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@1.91; L@3.08; L@2.68; W@2.85; L@1.56. Wealth 1.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22420380461889386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@3.08; L@2.68; W@2.85; L@1.56; L@4.44. Wealth 1.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4295116280508944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.33 (win pays 2.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.08; L@2.68; W@2.85; L@1.56; L@4.44; L@2.33. Wealth 1.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29615367218827365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.94 (win pays 2.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.68; W@2.85; L@1.56; L@4.44; L@2.33; L@3.33. Wealth 1.060 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2901324711585127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.85; L@1.56; L@4.44; L@2.33; L@3.33; L@3.94. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6283417563443068}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; L@4.44; L@2.33; L@3.33; L@3.94; L@1.48. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3817486068087278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.44; L@2.33; L@3.33; L@3.94; L@1.48; W@2.34. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8151618805396179}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; L@3.33; L@3.94; L@1.48; W@2.34; W@1.21. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8108764423932007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.75 (win pays 2.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.33; L@3.94; L@1.48; W@2.34; W@1.21; W@1.35. Wealth 1.112 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24063839698862302}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.94; L@1.48; W@2.34; W@1.21; W@1.35; L@3.75. Wealth 1.112 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5370759363501333}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.54 (win pays 2.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; W@2.34; W@1.21; W@1.35; L@3.75; W@1.82. Wealth 1.112 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27894220300190653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.34; W@1.21; W@1.35; L@3.75; W@1.82; L@3.54. Wealth 1.112 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.768350369006052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.462769771254238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3161025025176254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.77. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39467807049419934}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.12 (win pays 2.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.77; L@2.45. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3598381763113097}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.77; L@2.45; L@3.12. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32949774645539753}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.77; L@2.45; L@3.12; L@2.66. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4957359708854058}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.77; L@2.45; L@3.12; L@2.66; L@2.23. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3277266727610857}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.77; L@2.45; L@3.12; L@2.66; L@2.23; L@3.03. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5984330403927708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; L@3.12; L@2.66; L@2.23; L@3.03; W@1.70. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7269055782435472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.12; L@2.66; L@2.23; L@3.03; W@1.70; W@1.36. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5455999777350008}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; L@2.23; L@3.03; W@1.70; W@1.36; L@1.71. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6287472452944889}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; L@3.03; W@1.70; W@1.36; L@1.71; L@1.42. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7356344906501534}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.03; W@1.70; W@1.36; L@1.71; L@1.42; L@1.21. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.275172534077552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@1.36; L@1.71; L@1.42; L@1.21; W@3.80. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29433555602302414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@1.71; L@1.42; L@1.21; W@3.80; L@3.57. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36436085927706163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.71; L@1.42; L@1.21; W@3.80; L@3.57; L@2.73. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7000610625487432}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; L@1.21; W@3.80; L@3.57; L@2.73; W@1.51. Wealth 0.930 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5886047425859964}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.47 (win pays 4.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; W@3.80; L@3.57; L@2.73; W@1.51; W@1.83. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18376807342447105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.80; L@3.57; L@2.73; W@1.51; W@1.83; L@5.47. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5703624936458067}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; L@2.73; W@1.51; W@1.83; L@5.47; L@1.58. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8413408216064848}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; W@1.51; W@1.83; L@5.47; L@1.58; W@1.19. Wealth 1.007 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8294072251164385}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@1.83; L@5.47; L@1.58; W@1.19; W@1.29. Wealth 1.066 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6936177015973406}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.59 (win pays 1.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; L@5.47; L@1.58; W@1.19; W@1.29; W@1.54. Wealth 1.153 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43341203856427724}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.47; L@1.58; W@1.19; W@1.29; W@1.54; W@2.59. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3437308001665465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; W@1.19; W@1.29; W@1.54; W@2.59; L@3.00. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5115288207797162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.34 (win pays 2.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.29; W@1.54; W@2.59; L@3.00; W@2.21. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28597888861880727}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.54; W@2.59; L@3.00; W@2.21; L@3.34. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6890538215902702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@2.59; L@3.00; W@2.21; L@3.34; W@1.41. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6948859449999304}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.59; L@3.00; W@2.21; L@3.34; W@1.41; W@1.25. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8015718592626345}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 7.03 (win pays 6.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.00; W@2.21; L@3.34; W@1.41; W@1.25; W@1.14. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16046458544215492}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.21; L@3.34; W@1.41; W@1.25; W@1.14; L@7.03. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.439344754586778}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.34; W@1.41; W@1.25; W@1.14; L@7.03; W@1.99. Wealth 1.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8216205572039592}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.25; W@1.14; L@7.03; W@1.99; W@1.32. Wealth 1.640 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7803880367377921}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.14; L@7.03; W@1.99; W@1.32; L@1.38. Wealth 1.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6109001552779585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@7.03; W@1.99; W@1.32; L@1.38; W@1.59. Wealth 1.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7784139187587134}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.03; W@1.99; W@1.32; L@1.38; W@1.59; L@1.12. Wealth 1.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7289695230855172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.99; W@1.32; L@1.38; W@1.59; L@1.12; W@1.45. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3818768442448245}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@1.38; W@1.59; L@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.47. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5294965438610573}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.40 (win pays 3.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.59; L@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.47; W@1.79. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20370577976512017}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; L@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.47; W@1.79; L@4.40. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39150265698197173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.26 (win pays 4.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.12; W@1.45; L@2.47; W@1.79; L@4.40; W@2.60. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19385985351203533}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@2.47; W@1.79; L@4.40; W@2.60; L@5.26. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24840189449909011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.47; W@1.79; L@4.40; W@2.60; L@5.26; W@4.04. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33972790553719023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.31 (win pays 3.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; L@4.40; W@2.60; L@5.26; W@4.04; L@2.97. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20115433101629945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.40; W@2.60; L@5.26; W@4.04; L@2.97; W@4.31. Wealth 1.370 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40400371949099256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@5.26; W@4.04; L@2.97; W@4.31; L@2.73. Wealth 1.302 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4210207490029604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.26; W@4.04; L@2.97; W@4.31; L@2.73; L@2.19. Wealth 1.302 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2915025136074988}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.04; L@2.97; W@4.31; L@2.73; L@2.19; L@3.17. Wealth 1.302 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5243151728991355}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; W@4.31; L@2.73; L@2.19; L@3.17; L@2.07. Wealth 1.171 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45387395855874524}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.67 (win pays 2.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.31; L@2.73; L@2.19; L@3.17; L@2.07; W@2.31. Wealth 1.248 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2976076864942653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@2.19; L@3.17; L@2.07; W@2.31; L@3.67. Wealth 1.186 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5095428343558183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; L@3.17; L@2.07; W@2.31; L@3.67; L@2.23. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47006397532260447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.98 (win pays 5.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.17; L@2.07; W@2.31; L@3.67; L@2.23; W@2.04. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16085062351442567}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; W@2.31; L@3.67; L@2.23; W@2.04; L@6.98. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6944730050481588}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; L@3.67; L@2.23; W@2.04; L@6.98; W@1.29. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43486394137550133}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.67; L@2.23; W@2.04; L@6.98; W@1.29; L@1.96. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4153233711853104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.68 (win pays 2.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; W@2.04; L@6.98; W@1.29; L@1.96; W@2.43. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31071610531177907}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; L@6.98; W@1.29; L@1.96; W@2.43; L@3.68. Wealth 1.014 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8096336554962765}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.98; W@1.29; L@1.96; W@2.43; L@3.68; L@1.31. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5113223332579647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@1.96; W@2.43; L@3.68; L@1.31; L@1.97. Wealth 0.811 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6827700309242523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.96; W@2.43; L@3.68; L@1.31; L@1.97; L@1.54. Wealth 0.730 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3176326454206901}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.43; L@3.68; L@1.31; L@1.97; L@1.54; W@2.98. Wealth 0.730 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4853421712780872}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.68; L@1.31; L@1.97; L@1.54; W@2.98; W@2.28. Wealth 0.823 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40992773830338436}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@1.97; L@1.54; W@2.98; W@2.28; W@2.54. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6964016669837818}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; L@1.54; W@2.98; W@2.28; W@2.54; W@1.35. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41982968519293684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@2.98; W@2.28; W@2.54; W@1.35; W@2.16. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8138842772191213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@2.28; W@2.54; W@1.35; W@2.16; W@1.21. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7000440450514775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; W@2.54; W@1.35; W@2.16; W@1.21; W@1.25. Wealth 0.886 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2919052106878154}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.54; W@1.35; W@2.16; W@1.21; W@1.25; L@3.69. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6934576169784399}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@2.16; W@1.21; W@1.25; L@3.69; W@1.34. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42681148706559735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.16 (win pays 4.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; W@1.21; W@1.25; L@3.69; W@1.34; L@2.14. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19312296012575836}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.25; L@3.69; W@1.34; L@2.14; W@5.16. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.455679317739197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.36 (win pays 2.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.69; W@1.34; L@2.14; W@5.16; W@2.10. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3102372945931048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@1.34; L@2.14; W@5.16; W@2.10; L@3.36. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.638211450047488}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@2.14; W@5.16; W@2.10; L@3.36; L@1.48. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3982983288196951}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@5.16; W@2.10; L@3.36; L@1.48; W@2.14. Wealth 0.842 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7739000094365939}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.16; W@2.10; L@3.36; L@1.48; W@2.14; W@1.34. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6474234084941849}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.10; L@3.36; L@1.48; W@2.14; W@1.34; W@1.72. Wealth 0.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4853214343152946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.36; L@1.48; W@2.14; W@1.34; W@1.72; L@2.07. Wealth 0.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5728150922453737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.05 (win pays 0.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; W@2.14; W@1.34; W@1.72; L@2.07; W@1.80. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8449057552116632}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@1.34; W@1.72; L@2.07; W@1.80; W@1.05. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5850765370987999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.72; L@2.07; W@1.80; W@1.05; W@1.84. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5346396374938874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@2.07; W@1.80; W@1.05; W@1.84; L@1.88. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.430528519502994}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; W@1.80; W@1.05; W@1.84; L@1.88; L@2.12. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5418725175329042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.44 (win pays 2.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; W@1.05; W@1.84; L@1.88; L@2.12; W@1.57. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31440351633010755}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.84; L@1.88; L@2.12; W@1.57; W@3.44. Wealth 1.221 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44829148044460043}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; L@1.88; L@2.12; W@1.57; W@3.44; W@2.47. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3449715346488233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; L@2.12; W@1.57; W@3.44; W@2.47; W@2.98. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5290274018044023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.12; W@1.57; W@3.44; W@2.47; W@2.98; L@2.01. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5690400986712733}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; W@3.44; W@2.47; W@2.98; L@2.01; L@1.77. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7821926650168667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.44; W@2.47; W@2.98; L@2.01; L@1.77; W@1.13. Wealth 1.245 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4624179961678946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; W@2.98; L@2.01; L@1.77; W@1.13; L@2.43. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.316958272669496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.49 (win pays 2.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; L@2.01; L@1.77; W@1.13; L@2.43; W@2.69. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2834154115520887}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; L@1.77; W@1.13; L@2.43; W@2.69; L@3.49. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47921160140811137}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; W@1.13; L@2.43; W@2.69; L@3.49; L@2.13. Wealth 1.121 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7476691490856842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; L@2.43; W@2.69; L@3.49; L@2.13; W@1.48. Wealth 1.228 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.563638907007178}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.43; W@2.69; L@3.49; L@2.13; W@1.48; L@1.71. Wealth 1.228 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5437571907546189}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.74 (win pays 3.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.69; L@3.49; L@2.13; W@1.48; L@1.71; W@1.70. Wealth 1.228 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2387835098436797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.07 (win pays 3.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.49; L@2.13; W@1.48; L@1.71; W@1.70; W@4.74. Wealth 1.457 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2771214186290266}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@1.48; L@1.71; W@1.70; W@4.74; L@4.07. Wealth 1.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5000135742519014}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7638228489420116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34. Wealth 1.017 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3834652698312182}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@2.78. Wealth 1.107 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7576080962165556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@2.78; W@1.28. Wealth 1.107 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36670852558798955}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@2.78; W@1.28; W@2.48. Wealth 1.107 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5152689923373387}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@2.78; W@1.28; W@2.48; W@2.04. Wealth 1.165 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5141603837112021}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.76 (win pays 4.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@2.78; W@1.28; W@2.48; W@2.04; W@2.18. Wealth 1.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19098654204445467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.78; W@1.28; W@2.48; W@2.04; W@2.18; L@5.76. Wealth 1.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4282591410138207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@2.48; W@2.04; W@2.18; L@5.76; L@2.11. Wealth 1.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5234800503703884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.48; W@2.04; W@2.18; L@5.76; L@2.11; L@1.68. Wealth 1.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7286453608625861}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; W@2.18; L@5.76; L@2.11; L@1.68; W@1.19. Wealth 1.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.598774649680184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@5.76; L@2.11; L@1.68; W@1.19; W@1.89. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5236744678988141}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.51 (win pays 2.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.76; L@2.11; L@1.68; W@1.19; W@1.89; L@2.10. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2849947488737573}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.11; L@1.68; W@1.19; W@1.89; L@2.10; L@3.51. Wealth 1.329 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.738931630092959}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.86 (win pays 4.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; W@1.19; W@1.89; L@2.10; L@3.51; W@1.40. Wealth 1.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1760605789722748}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.89; L@2.10; L@3.51; W@1.40; L@5.86. Wealth 1.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6978416729520602}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@2.10; L@3.51; W@1.40; L@5.86; W@1.31. Wealth 1.382 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8397875994768627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; L@3.51; W@1.40; L@5.86; W@1.31; W@1.35. Wealth 1.578 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5338156291847322}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.51; W@1.40; L@5.86; W@1.31; W@1.35; L@2.15. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.510877919968035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@5.86; W@1.31; W@1.35; L@2.15; L@2.25. Wealth 1.207 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7099480261494847}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.86; W@1.31; W@1.35; L@2.15; L@2.25; W@1.56. Wealth 1.342 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5672855028639179}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.24 (win pays 3.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@1.35; L@2.15; L@2.25; W@1.56; W@1.92. Wealth 1.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20874177139742586}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@2.15; L@2.25; W@1.56; W@1.92; L@4.24. Wealth 1.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6237157800342663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.06 (win pays 2.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; L@2.25; W@1.56; W@1.92; L@4.24; L@1.61. Wealth 1.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3401683602432056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@1.56; W@1.92; L@4.24; L@1.61; L@3.06. Wealth 1.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.256822174224239}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@1.92; L@4.24; L@1.61; L@3.06; L@3.90. Wealth 1.465 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43564569484767945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; L@4.24; L@1.61; L@3.06; L@3.90; W@2.61. Wealth 1.701 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5316198608053865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.38 (win pays 4.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.24; L@1.61; L@3.06; L@3.90; W@2.61; W@1.98. Wealth 1.784 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19542412517707594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.61; L@3.06; L@3.90; W@2.61; W@1.98; L@5.38. Wealth 1.784 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4300144638774589}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.06; L@3.90; W@2.61; W@1.98; L@5.38; W@2.01. Wealth 1.784 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8154070275621321}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.49 (win pays 3.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.90; W@2.61; W@1.98; L@5.38; W@2.01; W@1.33. Wealth 1.961 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1974370192217925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.61; W@1.98; L@5.38; W@2.01; W@1.33; L@4.49. Wealth 1.961 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4262992546128067}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@5.38; W@2.01; W@1.33; L@4.49; W@2.47. Wealth 2.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.678994167594945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.38; W@2.01; W@1.33; L@4.49; W@2.47; L@1.64. Wealth 1.684 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5736599053201925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; W@1.33; L@4.49; W@2.47; L@1.64; W@1.85. Wealth 1.756 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7842042539444393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.86 (win pays 2.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.49; W@2.47; L@1.64; W@1.85; W@1.41. Wealth 1.974 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28094198074720866}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.49; W@2.47; L@1.64; W@1.85; W@1.41; W@3.86. Wealth 2.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6179689516759634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; L@1.64; W@1.85; W@1.41; W@3.86; W@1.38. Wealth 2.256 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5139954782388375}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.38 (win pays 3.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; W@1.85; W@1.41; W@3.86; W@1.38; L@2.05. Wealth 2.143 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19995911507498343}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.85; W@1.41; W@3.86; W@1.38; L@2.05; L@4.38. Wealth 2.143 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7740175654154673}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@3.86; W@1.38; L@2.05; L@4.38; W@1.10. Wealth 2.143 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8322338932704715}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.86; W@1.38; L@2.05; L@4.38; W@1.10; L@1.31. Wealth 1.500 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.680205547791646}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@2.05; L@4.38; W@1.10; L@1.31; L@1.65. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6245996459143653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@4.38; W@1.10; L@1.31; L@1.65; W@1.54. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.650160236752892}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.38; W@1.10; L@1.31; L@1.65; W@1.54; W@1.56. Wealth 1.234 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3103423318429762}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.89 (win pays 3.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; L@1.31; L@1.65; W@1.54; W@1.56; L@3.45. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18823516210751068}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@1.65; W@1.54; W@1.56; L@3.45; L@4.89. Wealth 1.172 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4936181557113003}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.65; W@1.54; W@1.56; L@3.45; L@4.89; L@2.24. Wealth 1.055 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3948958125388389}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.10 (win pays 2.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.56; L@3.45; L@4.89; L@2.24; W@2.64. Wealth 1.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3313958197747225}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@3.45; L@4.89; L@2.24; W@2.64; W@3.10. Wealth 1.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.697953476893967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.45; L@4.89; L@2.24; W@2.64; W@3.10; W@1.42. Wealth 1.141 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3775501104184483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.89; L@2.24; W@2.64; W@3.10; W@1.42; L@2.77. Wealth 1.084 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4993220496882528}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.24; W@2.64; W@3.10; W@1.42; L@2.77; W@2.12. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5815532274467428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; W@3.10; W@1.42; L@2.77; W@2.12; L@1.82. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5288238979219779}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.52 (win pays 3.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.10; W@1.42; L@2.77; W@2.12; L@1.82; L@1.84. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21164087499251089}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@2.77; W@2.12; L@1.82; L@1.84; L@4.52. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5959307217560202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.77; W@2.12; L@1.82; L@1.84; L@4.52; W@1.49. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5695928962620648}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.18 (win pays 2.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.12; L@1.82; L@1.84; L@4.52; W@1.49; L@1.56. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3187766896645704}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@1.84; L@4.52; W@1.49; L@1.56; L@3.18. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.549245337849207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.84; L@4.52; W@1.49; L@1.56; L@3.18; L@1.77. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8286003213271486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.52; W@1.49; L@1.56; L@3.18; L@1.77; W@1.31. Wealth 1.188 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5092002730750297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.32 (win pays 4.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@1.56; L@3.18; L@1.77; W@1.31; L@2.23. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16582241210116733}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; L@3.18; L@1.77; W@1.31; L@2.23; W@5.32. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6055015699895818}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.18; L@1.77; W@1.31; L@2.23; W@5.32; W@1.65. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32297002228137606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; W@1.31; L@2.23; W@5.32; W@1.65; L@2.90. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6016438094689779}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.21 (win pays 4.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@2.23; W@5.32; W@1.65; L@2.90; W@1.62. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17328306087706336}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; W@5.32; W@1.65; L@2.90; W@1.62; L@5.21. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46097333163099075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.32; W@1.65; L@2.90; W@1.62; L@5.21; W@1.88. Wealth 1.069 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6999915166855278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@2.90; W@1.62; L@5.21; W@1.88; W@1.58. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6854977873902933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.90; W@1.62; L@5.21; W@1.88; W@1.58; W@1.30. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4779368626940922}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.14 (win pays 4.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@5.21; W@1.88; W@1.58; W@1.30; L@2.18. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17477749389845754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.21; W@1.88; W@1.58; W@1.30; L@2.18; L@5.14. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46671145170766104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; W@1.58; W@1.30; L@2.18; L@5.14; W@2.16. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5622181134563387}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.53 (win pays 2.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.30; L@2.18; L@5.14; W@2.16; W@1.54. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2613931762852218}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.18; L@5.14; W@2.16; W@1.54; W@3.53. Wealth 1.133 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6141113640408413}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; L@5.14; W@2.16; W@1.54; W@3.53; L@1.70. Wealth 1.076 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2470780041621365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.14; W@2.16; W@1.54; W@3.53; L@1.70; L@3.72. Wealth 1.076 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2841920899526962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; W@1.54; W@3.53; L@1.70; L@3.72; L@3.47. Wealth 1.076 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6153128395883604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@3.53; L@1.70; L@3.72; L@3.47; W@1.72. Wealth 1.154 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4369078783882012}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.66 (win pays 3.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.53; L@1.70; L@3.72; L@3.47; W@1.72; L@2.57. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20159603790556993}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; L@3.72; L@3.47; W@1.72; L@2.57; L@4.66. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3633020931377138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; L@3.47; W@1.72; L@2.57; L@4.66; L@2.57. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5632855939139767}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; W@1.72; L@2.57; L@4.66; L@2.57; L@1.64. Wealth 1.038 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6535104893160654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@2.57; L@4.66; L@2.57; L@1.64; W@1.68. Wealth 1.144 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4499164823957964}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.73 (win pays 3.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@4.66; L@2.57; L@1.64; W@1.68; W@2.43. Wealth 1.226 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23065618700517146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.66; L@2.57; L@1.64; W@1.68; W@2.43; L@4.73. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5175608222054459}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@1.64; W@1.68; W@2.43; L@4.73; L@2.16. Wealth 1.048 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6873410607047916}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; W@1.68; W@2.43; L@4.73; L@2.16; W@1.43. Wealth 1.048 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8275204685268551}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.68; W@2.43; L@4.73; L@2.16; W@1.43; L@1.37. Wealth 0.629 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5318453236581192}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.68 (win pays 3.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.43; L@4.73; L@2.16; W@1.43; L@1.37; W@1.89. Wealth 0.629 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23532211169851824}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.73; L@2.16; W@1.43; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@4.68. Wealth 0.597 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4853953226123089}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.70 (win pays 5.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; W@1.43; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@4.68; L@2.29. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15199399937330146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.37; W@1.89; L@4.68; L@2.29; W@6.70. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26698392476179195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; W@1.89; L@4.68; L@2.29; W@6.70; W@3.26. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7604038838111853}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@4.68; L@2.29; W@6.70; W@3.26; W@1.14. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8202282722536627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.68; L@2.29; W@6.70; W@3.26; W@1.14; W@1.10. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4425486711237634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.29; W@6.70; W@3.26; W@1.14; W@1.10; L@2.01. Wealth 0.538 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4596163076554637}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.70; W@3.26; W@1.14; W@1.10; L@2.01; L@2.37. Wealth 0.511 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4501180404373337}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.17 (win pays 3.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.26; W@1.14; W@1.10; L@2.01; L@2.37; L@1.99. Wealth 0.511 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2539756024311448}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@1.10; L@2.01; L@2.37; L@1.99; W@4.17. Wealth 0.511 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.313386058343696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3662379795766577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.23 (win pays 3.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2666025495955532}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.52 (win pays 2.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@4.23. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24272809673447765}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@4.23; L@3.52. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.704610399702368}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@4.23; L@3.52; W@1.25. Wealth 1.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3759085849845799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@4.23; L@3.52; W@1.25; L@3.01. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40750048279430384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@4.23; L@3.52; W@1.25; L@3.01; L@2.55. Wealth 1.103 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6219853735323748}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.86 (win pays 4.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.23; L@3.52; W@1.25; L@3.01; L@2.55; W@1.80. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16462374378796815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.52; W@1.25; L@3.01; L@2.55; W@1.80; L@5.86. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5547655287587477}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.01; L@2.55; W@1.80; L@5.86; W@1.98. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.757072078815786}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.01; L@2.55; W@1.80; L@5.86; W@1.98; L@1.44. Wealth 1.085 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5147359482088163}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.55; W@1.80; L@5.86; W@1.98; L@1.44; L@1.82. Wealth 1.085 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.398801197663346}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.25 (win pays 4.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; L@5.86; W@1.98; L@1.44; L@1.82; L@2.61. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20270627808990657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.86; W@1.98; L@1.44; L@1.82; L@2.61; W@5.25. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8307261927647188}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@1.44; L@1.82; L@2.61; W@5.25; W@1.10. Wealth 1.030 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4932181970605424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.61 (win pays 3.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; L@1.82; L@2.61; W@5.25; W@1.10; W@2.22. Wealth 1.156 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23722414057348262}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@2.61; W@5.25; W@1.10; W@2.22; L@4.61. Wealth 1.099 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8165640065453257}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.78 (win pays 2.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; W@5.25; W@1.10; W@2.22; L@4.61; W@1.31. Wealth 1.166 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3009936701652927}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.25; W@1.10; W@2.22; L@4.61; W@1.31; W@3.78. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5226183212554834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; W@2.22; L@4.61; W@1.31; W@3.78; W@1.90. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7193246455880122}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.22; L@4.61; W@1.31; W@3.78; W@1.90; W@1.39. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8126435502837213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.61; W@1.31; W@3.78; W@1.90; W@1.39; W@1.14. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37400654141970313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@3.78; W@1.90; W@1.39; W@1.14; W@2.79. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32875499604155933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.32 (win pays 2.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.78; W@1.90; W@1.39; W@1.14; W@2.79; L@2.75. Wealth 1.328 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34081645620975337}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.38 (win pays 3.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@1.39; W@1.14; W@2.79; L@2.75; L@3.32. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21592596284884383}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; W@1.14; W@2.79; L@2.75; L@3.32; L@4.38. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.627522460816725}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; W@2.79; L@2.75; L@3.32; L@4.38; W@1.50. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7234184586023644}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.79; L@2.75; L@3.32; L@4.38; W@1.50; W@1.34. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2499021153623982}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.75; L@3.32; L@4.38; W@1.50; W@1.34; L@3.90. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5474729101423395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.32; L@4.38; W@1.50; W@1.34; L@3.90; L@1.71. Wealth 1.261 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.415553940835256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.38; W@1.50; W@1.34; L@3.90; L@1.71; L@2.61. Wealth 1.198 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3617768012454966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.34; L@3.90; L@1.71; L@2.61; L@2.42. Wealth 1.198 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6993095556258225}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.22 (win pays 2.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@3.90; L@1.71; L@2.61; L@2.42; W@1.55. Wealth 1.297 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30797925044517466}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.90; L@1.71; L@2.61; L@2.42; W@1.55; L@3.22. Wealth 1.297 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6607253963079976}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.71; L@2.61; L@2.42; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@1.54. Wealth 1.332 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34876380176565125}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; L@2.42; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@1.54; W@3.19. Wealth 1.478 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3025125663774317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.22 (win pays 5.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@1.54; W@3.19; L@3.57. Wealth 1.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1805696529099122}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.99 (win pays 1.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@3.22; W@1.54; W@3.19; L@3.57; L@6.22. Wealth 1.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3101135278079278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.22; W@1.54; W@3.19; L@3.57; L@6.22; W@2.99. Wealth 1.404 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7845609437369526}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@3.19; L@3.57; L@6.22; W@2.99; W@1.45. Wealth 1.596 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8421410901214789}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.19; L@3.57; L@6.22; W@2.99; W@1.45; L@1.36. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6026838778818436}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; L@6.22; W@2.99; W@1.45; L@1.36; W@1.65. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42865680853573696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.22; W@2.99; W@1.45; L@1.36; W@1.65; L@2.05. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7326687134226546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.01 (win pays 5.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.99; W@1.45; L@1.36; W@1.65; L@2.05; W@1.22. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18464729036323663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.36; W@1.65; L@2.05; W@1.22; L@6.01. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5693055715788319}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; W@1.65; L@2.05; W@1.22; L@6.01; L@1.70. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5555716596547166}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@2.05; W@1.22; L@6.01; L@1.70; W@1.61. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7814842227845086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; W@1.22; L@6.01; L@1.70; W@1.61; W@1.15. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.646128179820024}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@6.01; L@1.70; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.60. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47543026127480736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.01; L@1.70; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.60; L@1.85. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49092733045692916}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.60; L@1.85; W@2.06. Wealth 0.986 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7615082252695826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.45 (win pays 3.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.60; L@1.85; W@2.06; W@1.42. Wealth 1.068 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20633529727914593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@1.60; L@1.85; W@2.06; W@1.42; L@4.45. Wealth 1.068 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2727823003592751}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@1.85; W@2.06; W@1.42; L@4.45; L@3.89. Wealth 1.068 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6034392083620941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.85; W@2.06; W@1.42; L@4.45; L@3.89; L@1.85. Wealth 0.908 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.627848199203328}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.42; L@4.45; L@3.89; L@1.85; W@1.60. Wealth 0.908 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2582857284618326}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@4.45; L@3.89; L@1.85; W@1.60; W@3.80. Wealth 0.908 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31700857385824843}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.51 (win pays 4.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.45; L@3.89; L@1.85; W@1.60; W@3.80; W@3.63. Wealth 1.027 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17232596323213864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.89; L@1.85; W@1.60; W@3.80; W@3.63; L@5.51. Wealth 1.027 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5119491152648575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.85; W@1.60; W@3.80; W@3.63; L@5.51; W@1.96. Wealth 1.027 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6636098934151228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@3.80; W@3.63; L@5.51; W@1.96; W@1.61. Wealth 1.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24164378938269376}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.80; W@3.63; L@5.51; W@1.96; W@1.61; L@4.71. Wealth 1.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7539940634015235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.24 (win pays 5.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.63; L@5.51; W@1.96; W@1.61; L@4.71; W@1.50. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17151960713245673}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.51; W@1.96; W@1.61; L@4.71; W@1.50; L@6.24. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8148954247904932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; W@1.61; L@4.71; W@1.50; L@6.24; W@1.11. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5805811951570222}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.88 (win pays 1.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.04 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@4.71; W@1.50; L@6.24; W@1.11; L@1.52. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3139349828271111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.71; W@1.50; L@6.24; W@1.11; L@1.52; W@2.88. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8182003540213951}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@6.24; W@1.11; L@1.52; W@2.88; W@1.35. Wealth 1.318 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6892845132203449}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.24; W@1.11; L@1.52; W@2.88; W@1.35; L@1.53. Wealth 1.187 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47950233252631447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.55 (win pays 2.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; L@1.52; W@2.88; W@1.35; L@1.53; L@2.01. Wealth 1.187 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2567700772591004}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; W@2.88; W@1.35; L@1.53; L@2.01; L@3.55. Wealth 1.187 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8456024843501582}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.88; W@1.35; L@1.53; L@2.01; L@3.55; W@1.35. Wealth 1.353 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3805269712490457}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.53; L@2.01; L@3.55; W@1.35; W@2.97. Wealth 1.487 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4537025054336271}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; L@2.01; L@3.55; W@1.35; W@2.97; L@2.38. Wealth 1.412 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.738118014379945}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; L@3.55; W@1.35; W@2.97; L@2.38; W@1.48. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7442243479727804}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.55; W@1.35; W@2.97; L@2.38; W@1.48; W@1.30. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4638989286647761}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@2.97; L@2.38; W@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.29. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6468078871573332}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; L@2.38; W@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.29; W@1.41. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.743319857704779}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; W@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.30. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8385763497012174}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.29 (win pays 4.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@1.30; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.30; W@1.15. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20496723211899365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.29. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5846206485022959}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.29; W@1.41; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.29; L@1.94. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7757981546799777}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.74 (win pays 5.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.29; L@1.94; W@1.42. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16217728783745025}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.15; L@5.29; L@1.94; W@1.42; L@6.74. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.701873567283183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.08 (win pays 0.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; L@5.29; L@1.94; W@1.42; L@6.74; W@1.31. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8419538654644381}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.29; L@1.94; W@1.42; L@6.74; W@1.31; W@1.08. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5188781134934373}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@1.42; L@6.74; W@1.31; W@1.08; L@1.92. Wealth 1.356 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5815214652830963}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@6.74; W@1.31; W@1.08; L@1.92; W@1.89. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7638671277549851}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.74; W@1.31; W@1.08; L@1.92; W@1.89; L@1.32. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2067841777436731}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.91 (win pays 4.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@1.08; L@1.92; W@1.89; L@1.32; L@4.71. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1745319065000039}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.83 (win pays 2.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.08; L@1.92; W@1.89; L@1.32; L@4.71; L@5.91. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23026890028074035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; W@1.89; L@1.32; L@4.71; L@5.91; L@3.83. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.615088439382376}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.17 (win pays 3.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@1.32; L@4.71; L@5.91; L@3.83; W@1.58. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24699015623559367}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@4.71; L@5.91; L@3.83; W@1.58; L@4.17. Wealth 1.477 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6661896204217614}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.71; L@5.91; L@3.83; W@1.58; L@4.17; L@1.66. Wealth 1.255 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6999299453019504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.91; L@3.83; W@1.58; L@4.17; L@1.66; W@1.38. Wealth 1.255 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3715022755419465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.18 (win pays 3.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.83; W@1.58; L@4.17; L@1.66; W@1.38; L@3.08. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23574898347772585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@4.17; L@1.66; W@1.38; L@3.08; W@4.18. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7133437661988}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.85 (win pays 4.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.17; L@1.66; W@1.38; L@3.08; W@4.18; L@1.60. Wealth 0.954 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18000711192762783}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.51 (win pays 3.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.38; L@3.08; W@4.18; L@1.60; L@5.85. Wealth 0.954 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22733656571635685}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.680714111743475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.206676241137985}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.14 (win pays 5.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.15. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17029550203944102}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.32 (win pays 2.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.15; L@6.14. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3108133201398905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.15; L@6.14; L@3.32. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4341713492270475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.15; L@6.14; L@3.32; W@2.31. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.487113971427531}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.15; L@6.14; L@3.32; W@2.31; W@1.95. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7913758163799068}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; L@6.14; L@3.32; W@2.31; W@1.95; W@1.43. Wealth 1.129 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39105502824710514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.44 (win pays 2.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.14; L@3.32; W@2.31; W@1.95; W@1.43; L@2.33. Wealth 1.129 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3158954303695004}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.32; W@2.31; W@1.95; W@1.43; L@2.33; L@3.44. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5715522264125833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; W@1.95; W@1.43; L@2.33; L@3.44; L@1.91. Wealth 0.966 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5531554186246272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; W@1.43; L@2.33; L@3.44; L@1.91; L@1.69. Wealth 0.966 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4284680253222207}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@2.33; L@3.44; L@1.91; L@1.69; W@2.51. Wealth 1.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8206875378692162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.33; L@3.44; L@1.91; L@1.69; W@2.51; W@1.37. Wealth 1.154 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8166595183952139}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.16 (win pays 3.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.44; L@1.91; L@1.69; W@2.51; W@1.37; W@1.17. Wealth 1.154 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24691395582526254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@1.69; W@2.51; W@1.37; W@1.17; L@4.16. Wealth 1.154 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.577760029102117}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; W@2.51; W@1.37; W@1.17; L@4.16; W@1.79. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5879332042374285}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.51; W@1.37; W@1.17; L@4.16; W@1.79; W@1.52. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4659672320495226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.51 (win pays 4.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.17; L@4.16; W@1.79; W@1.52; W@2.06. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20107227502374894}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@4.16; W@1.79; W@1.52; W@2.06; W@5.51. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7025939144163138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.16; W@1.79; W@1.52; W@2.06; W@5.51; W@1.37. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4361356205331949}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@1.52; W@2.06; W@5.51; W@1.37; W@2.43. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6264130212891124}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@2.06; W@5.51; W@1.37; W@2.43; L@1.39. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3440271018868722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@5.51; W@1.37; W@2.43; L@1.39; W@3.04. Wealth 1.285 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5149697514631765}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.51; W@1.37; W@2.43; L@1.39; W@3.04; L@2.20. Wealth 1.157 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8131198069976384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@2.43; L@1.39; W@3.04; L@2.20; W@1.33. Wealth 1.232 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.702718437650837}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.63 (win pays 4.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.43; L@1.39; W@3.04; L@2.20; W@1.33; W@1.55. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1756803805073197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.28 (win pays 5.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@3.04; L@2.20; W@1.33; W@1.55; L@5.63. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.164216208667495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.24 (win pays 2.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.04; L@2.20; W@1.33; W@1.55; L@5.63; L@6.28. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32157846632545417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; W@1.33; W@1.55; L@5.63; L@6.28; W@3.24. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6497783142026398}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.55; L@5.63; L@6.28; W@3.24; W@1.31. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6949219662867554}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.61 (win pays 2.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@5.63; L@6.28; W@3.24; W@1.31; W@1.37. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29486556753696647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.34 (win pays 2.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.63; L@6.28; W@3.24; W@1.31; W@1.37; W@3.61. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3426410278243799}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.28; W@3.24; W@1.31; W@1.37; W@3.61; L@3.34. Wealth 1.267 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6877777069911198}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.24; W@1.31; W@1.37; W@3.61; L@3.34; W@1.55. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3552660297860758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@1.37; W@3.61; L@3.34; W@1.55; L@2.70. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7498541830865166}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.30 (win pays 3.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@3.61; L@3.34; W@1.55; L@2.70; L@1.27. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22355052136415943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.52 (win pays 5.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.61; L@3.34; W@1.55; L@2.70; L@1.27; L@4.30. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15532240210464096}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.34; W@1.55; L@2.70; L@1.27; L@4.30; L@6.52. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43001909068619915}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@2.70; L@1.27; L@4.30; L@6.52; L@2.17. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3250250484905409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; L@1.27; L@4.30; L@6.52; L@2.17; L@2.98. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6457596548096933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.27; L@4.30; L@6.52; L@2.17; L@2.98; L@1.33. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35123925524694977}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.30; L@6.52; L@2.17; L@2.98; L@1.33; L@2.48. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33407191514829704}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.52; L@2.17; L@2.98; L@1.33; L@2.48; W@2.89. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3158491892639718}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; L@2.98; L@1.33; L@2.48; W@2.89; L@3.23. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6577798113123235}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.98; L@1.33; L@2.48; W@2.89; L@3.23; L@1.30. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4479892063757128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; L@2.48; W@2.89; L@3.23; L@1.30; W@2.05. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.603205388668645}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.48; W@2.89; L@3.23; L@1.30; W@2.05; L@1.55. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4086887397441791}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.89; L@3.23; L@1.30; W@2.05; L@1.55; W@2.58. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5287020572134056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.23; L@1.30; W@2.05; L@1.55; W@2.58; W@1.91. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43408309286176294}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.30; W@2.05; L@1.55; W@2.58; W@1.91; W@2.50. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8491294838544431}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.55; W@2.58; W@1.91; W@2.50; W@1.20. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6171179710044724}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; W@2.58; W@1.91; W@2.50; W@1.20; W@1.49. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.785614540608205}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.58; W@1.91; W@2.50; W@1.20; W@1.49; W@1.23. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35673268789708357}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.91; W@2.50; W@1.20; W@1.49; W@1.23; W@2.48. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5718374228329252}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.50; W@1.20; W@1.49; W@1.23; W@2.48; W@1.78. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8391776452789197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.94 (win pays 3.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.49; W@1.23; W@2.48; W@1.78; W@1.14. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2152207913365313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@1.23; W@2.48; W@1.78; W@1.14; L@4.94. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6254229869322584}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; W@2.48; W@1.78; W@1.14; L@4.94; W@1.48. Wealth 1.580 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7355598614111459}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.48; W@1.78; W@1.14; L@4.94; W@1.48; W@1.43. Wealth 1.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7052369819259094}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.15 (win pays 2.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.78; W@1.14; L@4.94; W@1.48; W@1.43; L@1.30. Wealth 1.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2971837036216143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@4.94; W@1.48; W@1.43; L@1.30; W@3.15. Wealth 1.683 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7280512492978384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.94; W@1.48; W@1.43; L@1.30; W@3.15; L@1.50. Wealth 1.346 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8331435712638363}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.01 (win pays 4.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@1.43; L@1.30; W@3.15; L@1.50; W@1.09. Wealth 1.346 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22732536289275826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.02 (win pays 2.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.30; W@3.15; L@1.50; W@1.09; L@5.01. Wealth 1.279 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37587422066771425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.30; W@3.15; L@1.50; W@1.09; L@5.01; L@3.02. Wealth 1.215 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6376803555512957}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.22 (win pays 3.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.15; L@1.50; W@1.09; L@5.01; L@3.02; W@1.72. Wealth 1.346 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22977930072753028}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; W@1.09; L@5.01; L@3.02; W@1.72; L@4.22. Wealth 1.346 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.556910356894224}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; L@5.01; L@3.02; W@1.72; L@4.22; L@1.63. Wealth 1.346 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7853113453089695}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.01; L@3.02; W@1.72; L@4.22; L@1.63; W@1.44. Wealth 1.523 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5130947999134505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.02; W@1.72; L@4.22; L@1.63; W@1.44; W@1.98. Wealth 1.523 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3373577532531867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.88 (win pays 4.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@4.22; L@1.63; W@1.44; W@1.98; L@2.89. Wealth 1.523 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17695877520238254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.22 (win pays 2.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.22; L@1.63; W@1.44; W@1.98; L@2.89; L@5.88. Wealth 1.523 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3481192712364694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@1.44; W@1.98; L@2.89; L@5.88; L@3.22. Wealth 1.447 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6899285635997628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.98; L@2.89; L@5.88; L@3.22; W@1.52. Wealth 1.523 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6989373494069057}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@2.89; L@5.88; L@3.22; W@1.52; W@1.61. Wealth 1.708 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7611660081654121}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.89; L@5.88; L@3.22; W@1.52; W@1.61; L@1.36. Wealth 1.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8110883752761073}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.88; L@3.22; W@1.52; W@1.61; L@1.36; W@1.20. Wealth 1.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7393781900551839}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.47 (win pays 3.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.22; W@1.52; W@1.61; L@1.36; W@1.20; L@1.51. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2041850701738857}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.46 (win pays 5.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.61; L@1.36; W@1.20; L@1.51; L@4.47. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16905274350049507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@1.36; W@1.20; L@1.51; L@4.47; L@6.46. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5162563416494803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; W@1.20; L@1.51; L@4.47; L@6.46; W@1.87. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6935208337006469}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.31 (win pays 5.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; L@1.51; L@4.47; L@6.46; W@1.87; W@1.55. Wealth 1.332 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1789172763566356}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.51; L@4.47; L@6.46; W@1.87; W@1.55; L@6.31. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4743460668510273}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.47; L@6.46; W@1.87; W@1.55; L@6.31; W@1.97. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8226315286300809}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.46; W@1.87; W@1.55; L@6.31; W@1.97; W@1.19. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7383222858701803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.33 (win pays 3.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.55; L@6.31; W@1.97; W@1.19; W@1.25. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24049019111334194}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.47 (win pays 5.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@6.31; W@1.97; W@1.19; W@1.25; L@4.33. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16960313756863427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.31; W@1.97; W@1.19; W@1.25; L@4.33; L@6.47. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.606695987091391}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; W@1.19; W@1.25; L@4.33; L@6.47; L@1.54. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6765274123945744}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.25; L@4.33; L@6.47; L@1.54; W@1.38. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37125631109703927}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@4.33; L@6.47; L@1.54; W@1.38; W@2.72. Wealth 1.265 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3431777842401932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.33; L@6.47; L@1.54; W@1.38; W@2.72; L@3.07. Wealth 1.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5284774054370671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.47; L@1.54; W@1.38; W@2.72; L@3.07; W@1.61. Wealth 1.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5255172502008278}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@1.38; W@2.72; L@3.07; W@1.61; L@2.01. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6010192843340104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@2.72; L@3.07; W@1.61; L@2.01; W@1.57. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8260620442741693}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.09 (win pays 4.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.72; L@3.07; W@1.61; L@2.01; W@1.57; L@1.25. Wealth 0.970 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.171921005590902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.07; W@1.61; L@2.01; W@1.57; L@1.25; L@5.09. Wealth 0.970 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8356457656915257}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.95 (win pays 3.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@2.01; W@1.57; L@1.25; L@5.09; W@1.29. Wealth 1.056 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2155180185822737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; W@1.57; L@1.25; L@5.09; W@1.29; L@4.95. Wealth 1.056 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7510758083236497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5416404041169741}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5039834266817855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.83. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3451978792356758}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.83; W@3.01. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42819069597374715}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.83; W@3.01; W@2.34. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.702167286783902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.83; W@3.01; W@2.34; W@1.26. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40879361270876047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@1.83; W@3.01; W@2.34; W@1.26; L@2.57. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8398027065858914}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@3.01; W@2.34; W@1.26; L@2.57; W@1.27. Wealth 1.001 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43591200258265905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.01; W@2.34; W@1.26; L@2.57; W@1.27; L@2.30. Wealth 1.001 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5189250761482216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.34; W@1.26; L@2.57; W@1.27; L@2.30; W@1.81. Wealth 1.001 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4298808997134107}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@2.57; W@1.27; L@2.30; W@1.81; L@2.64. Wealth 0.901 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5811640233318149}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; W@1.27; L@2.30; W@1.81; L@2.64; W@1.95. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.645174248553611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.36 (win pays 2.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@2.30; W@1.81; L@2.64; W@1.95; L@1.52. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30049443833800515}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.30; W@1.81; L@2.64; W@1.95; L@1.52; L@3.36. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5734292065864428}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; L@2.64; W@1.95; L@1.52; L@3.36; W@1.75. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5033921642714653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.64; W@1.95; L@1.52; L@3.36; W@1.75; W@1.70. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6060034547152712}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.95; L@1.52; L@3.36; W@1.75; W@1.70; W@1.52. Wealth 1.029 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5985913819824553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.36; W@1.75; W@1.70; W@1.52; L@1.76. Wealth 0.978 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7299652915616611}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.36; W@1.75; W@1.70; W@1.52; L@1.76; L@1.32. Wealth 0.978 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6765672195418129}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.99 (win pays 3.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.70; W@1.52; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.38. Wealth 0.978 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22735304349711763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@1.52; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.38; L@4.99. Wealth 0.929 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32263349150526577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.38; L@4.99; W@2.98. Wealth 0.929 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6222647144538112}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; L@1.32; L@1.38; L@4.99; W@2.98; W@1.69. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44953571803026005}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@1.38; L@4.99; W@2.98; W@1.69; W@2.06. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5405183620342662}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; L@4.99; W@2.98; W@1.69; W@2.06; W@1.67. Wealth 0.993 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5235807696544295}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.99; W@2.98; W@1.69; W@2.06; W@1.67; W@2.07. Wealth 1.099 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3981338583873837}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@1.69; W@2.06; W@1.67; W@2.07; L@2.69. Wealth 1.044 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7199098372891086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; W@2.06; W@1.67; W@2.07; L@2.69; W@1.32. Wealth 1.044 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6470208678696499}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; W@1.67; W@2.07; L@2.69; W@1.32; W@1.56. Wealth 1.044 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7429236302814578}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@2.07; L@2.69; W@1.32; W@1.56; W@1.50. Wealth 1.148 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5867810781951038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; L@2.69; W@1.32; W@1.56; W@1.50; L@1.86. Wealth 1.033 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45538400764440956}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.69; W@1.32; W@1.56; W@1.50; L@1.86; L@2.50. Wealth 0.930 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.475368143577652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.56; W@1.50; L@1.86; L@2.50; L@1.86. Wealth 0.930 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6808464924790962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@1.50; L@1.86; L@2.50; L@1.86; L@1.39. Wealth 0.930 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6040556566457679}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.86; L@2.50; L@1.86; L@1.39; W@1.77. Wealth 1.002 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3969878577402868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@2.50; L@1.86; L@1.39; W@1.77; L@2.52. Wealth 1.002 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43894123393816875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; L@1.86; L@1.39; W@1.77; L@2.52; L@2.14. Wealth 1.002 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6441049616325315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@1.39; W@1.77; L@2.52; L@2.14; L@1.43. Wealth 1.002 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6579393832914833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@1.77; L@2.52; L@2.14; L@1.43; W@1.60. Wealth 1.062 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6524734715702186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.59 (win pays 3.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.52; L@2.14; L@1.43; W@1.60; L@1.50. Wealth 1.062 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2379989101502914}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.52; L@2.14; L@1.43; W@1.60; L@1.50; L@4.59. Wealth 1.009 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3808054655795317}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; L@1.43; W@1.60; L@1.50; L@4.59; L@2.35. Wealth 1.009 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8117558176794929}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.87 (win pays 2.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.43; W@1.60; L@1.50; L@4.59; L@2.35; W@1.16. Wealth 1.009 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23092651361878083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@1.50; L@4.59; L@2.35; W@1.16; L@3.87. Wealth 1.009 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7009935960118641}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.56 (win pays 4.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; L@4.59; L@2.35; W@1.16; L@3.87; W@1.57. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19235230527434044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.70 (win pays 2.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.59; L@2.35; W@1.16; L@3.87; W@1.57; L@5.56. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2688521104957302}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.35; W@1.16; L@3.87; W@1.57; L@5.56; W@3.70. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24899697899935505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; L@3.87; W@1.57; L@5.56; W@3.70; W@4.26. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33008489043423217}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.87; W@1.57; L@5.56; W@3.70; W@4.26; L@2.97. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6782505249088835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@5.56; W@3.70; W@4.26; L@2.97; W@1.41. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47850441402268395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.16 (win pays 3.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.56; W@3.70; W@4.26; L@2.97; W@1.41; L@1.81. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21764002528405949}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.70; W@4.26; L@2.97; W@1.41; L@1.81; L@4.16. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6924292112763439}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.82 (win pays 3.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.26; L@2.97; W@1.41; L@1.81; L@4.16; W@1.38. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1941354273026754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.64 (win pays 1.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; W@1.41; L@1.81; L@4.16; W@1.38; L@4.82. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3695946591161216}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.60 (win pays 2.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@1.81; L@4.16; W@1.38; L@4.82; W@2.64. Wealth 1.124 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3177347193330555}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.81; L@4.16; W@1.38; L@4.82; W@2.64; L@3.60. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.779525041975769}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.16; W@1.38; L@4.82; W@2.64; L@3.60; W@1.41. Wealth 1.155 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6151706074206147}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.22 (win pays 2.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@4.82; W@2.64; L@3.60; W@1.41; W@1.55. Wealth 1.155 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34378727426011246}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.02 (win pays 2.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.82; W@2.64; L@3.60; W@1.41; W@1.55; L@3.22. Wealth 1.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3784544154682504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.64; L@3.60; W@1.41; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@3.02. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.716884996099015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.93 (win pays 4.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.60; W@1.41; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@3.02; W@1.48. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18826490295975934}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.55; L@3.22; W@3.02; W@1.48; W@5.93. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5009571951636296}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@3.22; W@3.02; W@1.48; W@5.93; L@1.82. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2468624738803291}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.22; W@3.02; W@1.48; W@5.93; L@1.82; L@3.89. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7934093541375562}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.96 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.02; W@1.48; W@5.93; L@1.82; L@3.89; L@1.25. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7374697370712048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@5.93; L@1.82; L@3.89; L@1.25; W@1.22. Wealth 1.295 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6992878262484922}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.93; L@1.82; L@3.89; L@1.25; W@1.22; L@1.49. Wealth 1.166 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45517901577064157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.71 (win pays 2.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@3.89; L@1.25; W@1.22; L@1.49; L@1.94. Wealth 1.166 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29508861744600007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.89; L@1.25; W@1.22; L@1.49; L@1.94; L@3.71. Wealth 1.107 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7806165753567109}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.68 (win pays 0.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; W@1.22; L@1.49; L@1.94; L@3.71; W@1.26. Wealth 1.107 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6186285873875484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@1.49; L@1.94; L@3.71; W@1.26; L@1.68. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7367090247993382}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.49; L@1.94; L@3.71; W@1.26; L@1.68; L@1.34. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4683112805928915}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.78 (win pays 3.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; L@3.71; W@1.26; L@1.68; L@1.34; L@2.17. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19458956678003134}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.71; W@1.26; L@1.68; L@1.34; L@2.17; L@4.78. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6977412884031065}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@1.68; L@1.34; L@2.17; L@4.78; W@1.51. Wealth 1.106 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5020447991500041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.68; L@1.34; L@2.17; L@4.78; W@1.51; W@2.28. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5604610717567196}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.60 (win pays 2.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.34; L@2.17; L@4.78; W@1.51; W@2.28; W@1.71. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28051649514238375}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; L@4.78; W@1.51; W@2.28; W@1.71; L@3.60. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40653634767063884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.78; W@1.51; W@2.28; W@1.71; L@3.60; W@2.60. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5456333999263772}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; W@2.28; W@1.71; L@3.60; W@2.60; L@1.87. Wealth 1.347 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6974242850285334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.24 (win pays 2.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; W@1.71; L@3.60; W@2.60; L@1.87; W@1.55. Wealth 1.459 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3303005914888746}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.21 (win pays 4.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@3.60; W@2.60; L@1.87; W@1.55; W@3.24. Wealth 1.622 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18761925329961987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.60; W@2.60; L@1.87; W@1.55; W@3.24; L@5.21. Wealth 1.622 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7468165493605523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.60; L@1.87; W@1.55; W@3.24; L@5.21; W@1.47. Wealth 1.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7239739454558504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.99 (win pays 1.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.87; W@1.55; W@3.24; L@5.21; W@1.47; W@1.49. Wealth 1.906 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33928507480788306}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@3.24; L@5.21; W@1.47; W@1.49; L@2.99. Wealth 1.906 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6918264784975529}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.24; L@5.21; W@1.47; W@1.49; L@2.99; W@1.61. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7485839772252856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.21; W@1.47; W@1.49; L@2.99; W@1.61; W@1.15. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7961019239207056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.49; L@2.99; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.18. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8195714668682941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@2.99; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.18; L@1.19. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3228484254279097}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.99; W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.18; L@1.19; L@2.74. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.472334086390111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.15; W@1.18; L@1.19; L@2.74; L@1.90. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28295478092813564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@1.18; L@1.19; L@2.74; L@1.90; L@3.69. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6990938653888258}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@1.19; L@2.74; L@1.90; L@3.69; W@1.33. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.59839514286299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.19; L@2.74; L@1.90; L@3.69; W@1.33; W@1.59. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6834857837780917}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; L@1.90; L@3.69; W@1.33; W@1.59; W@1.43. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1796086901807103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@3.69; W@1.33; W@1.59; W@1.43; L@4.83. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2725885216051027}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@1.33; W@1.59; W@1.43; L@4.83; W@3.58. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3433604476969303}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.59; W@1.43; L@4.83; W@3.58; W@2.94. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.522056026407005}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@1.43; L@4.83; W@3.58; W@2.94; L@1.64. Wealth 2.140 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3305883888478429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.13 (win pays 2.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3004189359980074}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.94 (win pays 1.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32169724801482463}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; L@2.94. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39343208590495593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; L@2.94; W@2.92. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7885097789680434}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; L@2.94; W@2.92; W@1.19. Wealth 1.192 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7619059085187512}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; L@2.94; W@2.92; W@1.19; L@1.37. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23693229674280525}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.13; L@2.94; W@2.92; W@1.19; L@1.37; L@4.26. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3464546980143608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.94; W@2.92; W@1.19; L@1.37; L@4.26; W@2.72. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6744644826628071}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.92; W@1.19; L@1.37; L@4.26; W@2.72; W@1.66. Wealth 1.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41895714577121923}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@1.37; L@4.26; W@2.72; W@1.66; L@2.11. Wealth 1.214 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6692019511102238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.37; L@4.26; W@2.72; W@1.66; L@2.11; L@1.66. Wealth 1.032 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.846517440188671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.26; W@2.72; W@1.66; L@2.11; L@1.66; W@1.15. Wealth 1.032 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6360396525318075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.02 (win pays 4.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.72; W@1.66; L@2.11; L@1.66; W@1.15; W@1.73. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20356229024205263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@2.11; L@1.66; W@1.15; W@1.73; L@5.02. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5929261052764553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.17 (win pays 4.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.11; L@1.66; W@1.15; W@1.73; L@5.02; W@1.77. Wealth 1.189 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18848445028923114}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.46 (win pays 2.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.15; W@1.73; L@5.02; W@1.77; L@5.17. Wealth 1.189 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32347517136360315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@1.73; L@5.02; W@1.77; L@5.17; L@3.46. Wealth 1.129 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7574855602472402}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.16 (win pays 3.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; L@5.02; W@1.77; L@5.17; L@3.46; W@1.33. Wealth 1.129 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2558864891140443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.02; W@1.77; L@5.17; L@3.46; W@1.33; L@4.16. Wealth 1.129 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5321869136875357}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@5.17; L@3.46; W@1.33; L@4.16; W@2.10. Wealth 1.254 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7341785832239272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.17; L@3.46; W@1.33; L@4.16; W@2.10; W@1.35. Wealth 1.254 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3918174794659889}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.46; W@1.33; L@4.16; W@2.10; W@1.35; L@2.42. Wealth 1.254 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36607320759120066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@4.16; W@2.10; W@1.35; L@2.42; W@3.07. Wealth 1.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35586891395794523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.16; W@2.10; W@1.35; L@2.42; W@3.07; L@2.54. Wealth 1.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4534349744024547}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.10; W@1.35; L@2.42; W@3.07; L@2.54; L@2.12. Wealth 1.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3671237980578732}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@2.42; W@3.07; L@2.54; L@2.12; L@2.45. Wealth 1.384 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.670432678063485}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; W@3.07; L@2.54; L@2.12; L@2.45; L@1.53. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5514422196048324}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.03 (win pays 3.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.07; L@2.54; L@2.12; L@2.45; L@1.53; W@1.64. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2625593709641396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.54; L@2.12; L@2.45; L@1.53; W@1.64; L@4.03. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.559206986930526}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.12; L@2.45; L@1.53; W@1.64; L@4.03; W@1.90. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7599118094140981}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; L@1.53; W@1.64; L@4.03; W@1.90; L@1.15. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18483032684842898}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.64; L@4.03; W@1.90; L@1.15; W@4.83. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6926640486683784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.99 (win pays 1.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@4.03; W@1.90; L@1.15; W@4.83; W@1.30. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34152003496499056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.03; W@1.90; L@1.15; W@4.83; W@1.30; L@2.99. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5700529256364714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; L@1.15; W@4.83; W@1.30; L@2.99; L@1.98. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3027978860107382}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.15; W@4.83; W@1.30; L@2.99; L@1.98; L@3.45. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7475910845085092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.83; W@1.30; L@2.99; L@1.98; L@3.45; W@1.20. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5943204353234943}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.08 (win pays 0.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@2.99; L@1.98; L@3.45; W@1.20; L@1.62. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8016128902374811}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.78 (win pays 4.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.99; L@1.98; L@3.45; W@1.20; L@1.62; L@1.08. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18537156563235183}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; L@3.45; W@1.20; L@1.62; L@1.08; L@5.78. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6643491699944042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.45; W@1.20; L@1.62; L@1.08; L@5.78; W@1.38. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8438647448123802}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; L@1.62; L@1.08; L@5.78; W@1.38; W@1.15. Wealth 1.168 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5869467892917666}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.82 (win pays 1.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; L@1.08; L@5.78; W@1.38; W@1.15; W@1.82. Wealth 1.263 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39304198177543553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.08; L@5.78; W@1.38; W@1.15; W@1.82; L@2.82. Wealth 1.200 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5905203679958381}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.78; W@1.38; W@1.15; W@1.82; L@2.82; L@1.90. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5071168851811992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.15; W@1.82; L@2.82; L@1.90; L@1.92. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4834758157658078}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@1.82; L@2.82; L@1.90; L@1.92; L@1.89. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4343844895230198}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.54 (win pays 4.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@2.82; L@1.90; L@1.92; L@1.89; L@2.05. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15997617108994955}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.82; L@1.90; L@1.92; L@1.89; L@2.05; L@5.54. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3320032843204759}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@1.92; L@1.89; L@2.05; L@5.54; W@2.61. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5963914949848464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; L@1.89; L@2.05; L@5.54; W@2.61; W@1.52. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.772241885322618}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.89; L@2.05; L@5.54; W@2.61; W@1.52; W@1.24. Wealth 1.020 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2482332794370389}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@5.54; W@2.61; W@1.52; W@1.24; L@4.44. Wealth 0.969 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4144729208279746}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.54; W@2.61; W@1.52; W@1.24; L@4.44; L@2.65. Wealth 0.920 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5462268848892585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.93 (win pays 2.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.61; W@1.52; W@1.24; L@4.44; L@2.65; W@1.71. Wealth 0.920 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23563858161859572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.89 (win pays 0.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.52; W@1.24; L@4.44; L@2.65; W@1.71; L@3.93. Wealth 0.920 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5185730500691933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@4.44; L@2.65; W@1.71; L@3.93; W@1.89. Wealth 0.920 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.526576553290845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.44; L@2.65; W@1.71; L@3.93; W@1.89; L@1.75. Wealth 0.920 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3794179032793406}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.03 (win pays 3.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; W@1.71; L@3.93; W@1.89; L@1.75; L@2.81. Wealth 0.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2542467431722249}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@3.93; W@1.89; L@1.75; L@2.81; W@4.03. Wealth 0.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38664926445748293}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.93; W@1.89; L@1.75; L@2.81; W@4.03; L@2.34. Wealth 0.874 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7000862590402259}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.89; L@1.75; L@2.81; W@4.03; L@2.34; L@1.61. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49970726607273575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; L@2.81; W@4.03; L@2.34; L@1.61; W@2.01. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7444439904803893}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; W@4.03; L@2.34; L@1.61; W@2.01; W@1.31. Wealth 0.699 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5482379876126343}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.03; L@2.34; L@1.61; W@2.01; W@1.31; L@1.97. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7971082813825348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; L@1.61; W@2.01; W@1.31; L@1.97; W@1.17. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5642825705180897}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.61; W@2.01; W@1.31; L@1.97; W@1.17; L@1.78. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.691086916975297}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; W@1.31; L@1.97; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@1.24. Wealth 0.630 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6957182788646392}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.59 (win pays 1.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@1.97; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@1.24; L@1.62. Wealth 0.504 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34260792675811147}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@1.17; L@1.78; W@1.24; L@1.62; L@2.59. Wealth 0.504 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6172105462261409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.78; W@1.24; L@1.62; L@2.59; L@1.83. Wealth 0.428 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6674010232569142}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.54 (win pays 1.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.78; W@1.24; L@1.62; L@2.59; L@1.83; L@1.53. Wealth 0.407 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42283109221571424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.37 (win pays 3.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@1.62; L@2.59; L@1.83; L@1.53; W@2.54. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1967781078163092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; L@2.59; L@1.83; L@1.53; W@2.54; L@4.37. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5633103666043514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.43 (win pays 2.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.59; L@1.83; L@1.53; W@2.54; L@4.37; W@1.51. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2595288841804668}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.35 (win pays 1.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.83; L@1.53; W@2.54; L@4.37; W@1.51; L@3.43. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39678246139495454}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.60 (win pays 2.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@2.54; L@4.37; W@1.51; L@3.43; W@2.35. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25997920186820567}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.36 (win pays 2.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.54; L@4.37; W@1.51; L@3.43; W@2.35; L@3.60. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30924242402232394}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.37; W@1.51; L@3.43; W@2.35; L@3.60; L@3.36. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7682369553947047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@3.43; W@2.35; L@3.60; L@3.36; W@1.30. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7858854779802197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.43; W@2.35; L@3.60; L@3.36; W@1.30; L@1.26. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6412183448397182}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.35; L@3.60; L@3.36; W@1.30; L@1.26; L@1.54. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6349438274212041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.60; L@3.36; W@1.30; L@1.26; L@1.54; W@1.37. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7457158116497953}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.36; W@1.30; L@1.26; L@1.54; W@1.37; L@1.20. Wealth 0.438 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49524075239293797}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@1.26; L@1.54; W@1.37; L@1.20; W@2.27. Wealth 0.494 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8296822306469933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.37 (win pays 5.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.26; L@1.54; W@1.37; L@1.20; W@2.27; W@1.36. Wealth 0.566 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.150216735535845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.15 (win pays 3.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@1.37; L@1.20; W@2.27; W@1.36; L@6.37. Wealth 0.566 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24010132014817884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; L@1.20; W@2.27; W@1.36; L@6.37; L@4.15. Wealth 0.566 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7849354715171288}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; W@2.27; W@1.36; L@6.37; L@4.15; L@1.17. Wealth 0.566 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5017986582577098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; W@1.36; L@6.37; L@4.15; L@1.17; L@2.14. Wealth 0.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.692570613414656}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; L@6.37; L@4.15; L@1.17; L@2.14; W@1.61. Wealth 0.603 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7148651171791379}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.37; L@4.15; L@1.17; L@2.14; W@1.61; W@1.49. Wealth 0.647 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4676654823993792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.72 (win pays 1.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.15; L@1.17; L@2.14; W@1.61; W@1.49; L@2.30. Wealth 0.615 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41930358574751836}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.43 (win pays 3.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; L@2.14; W@1.61; W@1.49; L@2.30; L@2.72. Wealth 0.553 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22402492133388577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@1.61; W@1.49; L@2.30; L@2.72; L@4.43. Wealth 0.553 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7455595109204279}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.49; L@2.30; L@2.72; L@4.43; W@1.35. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5451957526746876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@2.30; L@2.72; L@4.43; W@1.35; W@1.84. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6356341199076492}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.06 (win pays 2.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.30; L@2.72; L@4.43; W@1.35; W@1.84; W@1.57. Wealth 0.563 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3638465816923893}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.72; L@4.43; W@1.35; W@1.84; W@1.57; L@3.06. Wealth 0.535 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5403197453448558}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.43; W@1.35; W@1.84; W@1.57; L@3.06; W@2.09. Wealth 0.593 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.846836929899467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3986399978176402}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5427928602423653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.63. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5556952786956801}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.63; L@1.94. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3164184860357241}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.63; L@1.94; L@2.73. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4308690320525467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.63; L@1.94; L@2.73; L@2.05. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24523134436372257}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; W@1.63; L@1.94; L@2.73; L@2.05; L@3.80. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42240197890366415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@1.94; L@2.73; L@2.05; L@3.80; W@2.12. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4100853154630224}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; L@2.73; L@2.05; L@3.80; W@2.12; L@2.10. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3686582450266743}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@2.05; L@3.80; W@2.12; L@2.10; W@2.76. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5958009674027096}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@3.80; W@2.12; L@2.10; W@2.76; L@1.64. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29673672513029237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.80; W@2.12; L@2.10; W@2.76; L@1.64; L@3.27. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7864807459615042}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.04 (win pays 3.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.12; L@2.10; W@2.76; L@1.64; L@3.27; W@1.18. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22880499118416442}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; W@2.76; L@1.64; L@3.27; W@1.18; W@4.04. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2410647767593162}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.76; L@1.64; L@3.27; W@1.18; W@4.04; W@3.89. Wealth 0.900 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25943666059314463}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; L@3.27; W@1.18; W@4.04; W@3.89; L@4.26. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6734754173341481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.27; W@1.18; W@4.04; W@3.89; L@4.26; L@1.54. Wealth 0.812 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40601539786821395}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@4.04; W@3.89; L@4.26; L@1.54; W@2.66. Wealth 0.880 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.614706593795872}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.04; W@3.89; L@4.26; L@1.54; W@2.66; L@1.62. Wealth 0.880 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4780076330685372}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.69 (win pays 5.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.89; L@4.26; L@1.54; W@2.66; L@1.62; L@1.86. Wealth 0.880 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16996927913885118}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.26; L@1.54; W@2.66; L@1.62; L@1.86; L@6.69. Wealth 0.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7050564355247754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@2.66; L@1.62; L@1.86; L@6.69; W@1.37. Wealth 0.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49568152132081045}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.66; L@1.62; L@1.86; L@6.69; W@1.37; W@1.76. Wealth 0.836 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5368411954734107}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; L@1.86; L@6.69; W@1.37; W@1.76; L@1.96. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5616462727948462}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@6.69; W@1.37; W@1.76; L@1.96; L@1.52. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6620423142685213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.53 (win pays 2.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.69; W@1.37; W@1.76; L@1.96; L@1.52; W@1.59. Wealth 0.840 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2452737705822292}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.76; L@1.96; L@1.52; W@1.59; W@3.53. Wealth 0.840 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8047584807223261}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; L@1.96; L@1.52; W@1.59; W@3.53; W@1.42. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7178609342219519}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.96; L@1.52; W@1.59; W@3.53; W@1.42; W@1.36. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7115478276291752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; W@1.59; W@3.53; W@1.42; W@1.36; W@1.25. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43778721305011936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@3.53; W@1.42; W@1.36; W@1.25; L@2.09. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48377472409439415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.53; W@1.42; W@1.36; W@1.25; L@2.09; W@1.96. Wealth 0.946 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5117627603732564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; W@1.36; W@1.25; L@2.09; W@1.96; W@2.08. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8082525896392624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.17 (win pays 5.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.25; L@2.09; W@1.96; W@2.08; L@1.18. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17877823260506193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@2.09; W@1.96; W@2.08; L@1.18; L@6.17. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43223547647931215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.09; W@1.96; W@2.08; L@1.18; L@6.17; L@2.34. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5477478442395491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; W@2.08; L@1.18; L@6.17; L@2.34; W@1.80. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7809868012202323}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; L@1.18; L@6.17; L@2.34; W@1.80; W@1.28. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48541778354927634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.18; L@6.17; L@2.34; W@1.80; W@1.28; L@2.08. Wealth 0.998 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46715245242845926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.24 (win pays 2.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.17; L@2.34; W@1.80; W@1.28; L@2.08; W@2.24. Wealth 1.059 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27303074859857585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.23 (win pays 2.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@1.80; W@1.28; L@2.08; W@2.24; W@3.24. Wealth 1.059 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28045885033259954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; W@1.28; L@2.08; W@2.24; W@3.24; W@3.23. Wealth 1.059 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8463500182159689}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; L@2.08; W@2.24; W@3.24; W@3.23; W@1.27. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6605597684351795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.08; W@2.24; W@3.24; W@3.23; W@1.27; W@1.38. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3550883786238287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; W@3.24; W@3.23; W@1.27; W@1.38; L@3.09. Wealth 1.088 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.846744808871996}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.03 (win pays 4.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.24; W@3.23; W@1.27; W@1.38; L@3.09; W@1.34. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21431452712275523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.68 (win pays 1.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.23; W@1.27; W@1.38; L@3.09; W@1.34; W@5.03. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3886543929385582}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.10 (win pays 4.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; W@1.38; L@3.09; W@1.34; W@5.03; L@2.68. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19898074754576778}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.12 (win pays 2.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@3.09; W@1.34; W@5.03; L@2.68; L@5.10. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.282060601487387}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@1.34; W@5.03; L@2.68; L@5.10; L@3.12. Wealth 1.235 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39060445013753287}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@5.03; L@2.68; L@5.10; L@3.12; L@2.74. Wealth 1.173 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7638569033841776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.03; L@2.68; L@5.10; L@3.12; L@2.74; W@1.18. Wealth 1.173 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5226586871841638}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.68; L@5.10; L@3.12; L@2.74; W@1.18; W@1.87. Wealth 1.173 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7205626877791912}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.58 (win pays 2.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.10; L@3.12; L@2.74; W@1.18; W@1.87; W@1.35. Wealth 1.173 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30120176585850944}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.20 (win pays 2.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.12; L@2.74; W@1.18; W@1.87; W@1.35; L@3.58. Wealth 1.114 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3224946365730581}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; W@1.18; W@1.87; W@1.35; L@3.58; L@3.20. Wealth 1.114 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6094462159067966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@1.87; W@1.35; L@3.58; L@3.20; W@1.53. Wealth 1.114 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3452004228306612}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.35; L@3.58; L@3.20; W@1.53; W@2.97. Wealth 1.114 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.823811832500722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@3.58; L@3.20; W@1.53; W@2.97; W@1.35. Wealth 1.230 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6024202204397541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.58; L@3.20; W@1.53; W@2.97; W@1.35; W@1.83. Wealth 1.332 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.509368225993577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.93 (win pays 3.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.20; W@1.53; W@2.97; W@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.17. Wealth 1.488 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20284288399972233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@2.97; W@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.17; L@4.93. Wealth 1.488 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5049834101665941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.69 (win pays 4.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; W@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.17; L@4.93; L@2.03. Wealth 1.488 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17591405319508813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@1.83; W@2.17; L@4.93; L@2.03; L@5.69. Wealth 1.488 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7384910854065845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@2.17; L@4.93; L@2.03; L@5.69; W@1.51. Wealth 1.639 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7116354076559386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.06 (win pays 1.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.17; L@4.93; L@2.03; L@5.69; W@1.51; L@1.22. Wealth 1.639 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45053835720839264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.46 (win pays 2.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.93; L@2.03; L@5.69; W@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.06. Wealth 1.639 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32720141947017356}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; L@5.69; W@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.06; L@3.46. Wealth 1.557 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.820356452439551}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.69; W@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.06; L@3.46; W@1.18. Wealth 1.557 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.417941435924862}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@1.22; W@2.06; L@3.46; W@1.18; L@2.28. Wealth 1.557 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3873334306190934}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.22; W@2.06; L@3.46; W@1.18; L@2.28; L@2.34. Wealth 1.557 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3019380847581894}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.06; L@3.46; W@1.18; L@2.28; L@2.34; W@3.62. Wealth 1.762 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6989111870265702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.46; W@1.18; L@2.28; L@2.34; W@3.62; L@1.44. Wealth 1.762 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8406392417448076}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.79 (win pays 3.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@2.28; L@2.34; W@3.62; L@1.44; W@1.31. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20500755185544975}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 7.37 (win pays 6.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.28; L@2.34; W@3.62; L@1.44; W@1.31; L@4.79. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1540337867520499}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@3.62; L@1.44; W@1.31; L@4.79; L@7.37. Wealth 1.926 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5538698869121504}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.06 (win pays 5.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.62; L@1.44; W@1.31; L@4.79; L@7.37; W@1.92. Wealth 2.014 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15007794328578825}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.44; W@1.31; L@4.79; L@7.37; W@1.92; L@6.06. Wealth 2.014 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5922516695118467}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.23 (win pays 5.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@4.79; L@7.37; W@1.92; L@6.06; W@1.70. Wealth 2.014 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16950185007901555}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.79; L@7.37; W@1.92; L@6.06; W@1.70; L@6.23. Wealth 2.014 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.633489587390444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.37; W@1.92; L@6.06; W@1.70; L@6.23; W@1.81. Wealth 2.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6581803269113747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; L@6.06; W@1.70; L@6.23; W@1.81; W@1.39. Wealth 2.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.281980409379204}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.06; W@1.70; L@6.23; W@1.81; W@1.39; L@3.26. Wealth 2.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6471402630097913}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@6.23; W@1.81; W@1.39; L@3.26; W@1.54. Wealth 2.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.765821414621794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.23; W@1.81; W@1.39; L@3.26; W@1.54; L@1.26. Wealth 2.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3054366205804083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; W@1.39; L@3.26; W@1.54; L@1.26; L@3.57. Wealth 2.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3390716224035052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@3.26; W@1.54; L@1.26; L@3.57; L@2.74. Wealth 2.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46033772796932515}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.82 (win pays 2.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; W@1.54; L@1.26; L@3.57; L@2.74; L@1.86. Wealth 2.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23862340182535874}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.09 (win pays 4.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@1.26; L@3.57; L@2.74; L@1.86; L@3.82. Wealth 2.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18513991832343601}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.86 (win pays 0.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.26; L@3.57; L@2.74; L@1.86; L@3.82; L@5.09. Wealth 2.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6001741492261867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; L@2.74; L@1.86; L@3.82; L@5.09; W@1.86. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7577325921325309}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; L@1.86; L@3.82; L@5.09; W@1.86; L@1.21. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22254296372383792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.86; L@3.82; L@5.09; W@1.86; L@1.21; L@4.83. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4746502180298605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.09 (win pays 3.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.82; L@5.09; W@1.86; L@1.21; L@4.83; L@2.10. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2206152480721238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.09; W@1.86; L@1.21; L@4.83; L@2.10; L@4.09. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40971464366375077}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.66 (win pays 2.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.86; L@1.21; L@4.83; L@2.10; L@4.09; W@2.08. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25051951353658386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.09 (win pays 3.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; L@4.83; L@2.10; L@4.09; W@2.08; L@3.66. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24721856295457087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.83; L@2.10; L@4.09; W@2.08; L@3.66; L@4.09. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5469099925773707}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.78 (win pays 0.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; L@4.09; W@2.08; L@3.66; L@4.09; L@1.58. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5019269042464364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.36 (win pays 4.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.09; W@2.08; L@3.66; L@4.09; L@1.58; L@1.78. Wealth 2.510 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20115763567945683}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7000342201813609}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3304476869064342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.09. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5180629596140089}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.74 (win pays 5.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.09; L@2.07. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16647265272189116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.09; L@2.07; L@6.74. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7044953249554682}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.09; L@2.07; L@6.74; W@1.61. Wealth 1.066 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5428919260966654}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@3.09; L@2.07; L@6.74; W@1.61; W@2.07. Wealth 1.180 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7500903538654292}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@2.07; L@6.74; W@1.61; W@2.07; W@1.37. Wealth 1.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49853732363032266}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; L@6.74; W@1.61; W@2.07; W@1.37; W@2.18. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6111704616432289}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.74; W@1.61; W@2.07; W@1.37; W@2.18; L@1.59. Wealth 1.273 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36817983690315037}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@2.07; W@1.37; W@2.18; L@1.59; W@3.08. Wealth 1.405 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5222901477194546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; W@1.37; W@2.18; L@1.59; W@3.08; W@1.67. Wealth 1.405 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45207164421066537}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@2.18; L@1.59; W@3.08; W@1.67; W@2.21. Wealth 1.405 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.734636322117835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@1.59; W@3.08; W@1.67; W@2.21; W@1.45. Wealth 1.500 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5071022462941688}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.79 (win pays 3.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.59; W@3.08; W@1.67; W@2.21; W@1.45; L@1.99. Wealth 1.500 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21546928646100305}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.08; W@1.67; W@2.21; W@1.45; L@1.99; L@4.79. Wealth 1.500 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8447593823349737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@2.21; W@1.45; L@1.99; L@4.79; W@1.27. Wealth 1.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49671338623077455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.37 (win pays 4.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.21; W@1.45; L@1.99; L@4.79; W@1.27; L@2.04. Wealth 1.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19342006094102815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@1.99; L@4.79; W@1.27; L@2.04; L@5.37. Wealth 1.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8183240393793364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.88 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.99; L@4.79; W@1.27; L@2.04; L@5.37; W@1.06. Wealth 1.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8161523775149438}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.79; W@1.27; L@2.04; L@5.37; W@1.06; W@1.40. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4653239382005263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@2.04; L@5.37; W@1.06; W@1.40; L@2.01. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6899638978828831}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.83 (win pays 4.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.04; L@5.37; W@1.06; W@1.40; L@2.01; W@1.63. Wealth 2.116 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15824460580511346}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.54 (win pays 2.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.37; W@1.06; W@1.40; L@2.01; W@1.63; L@5.83. Wealth 2.116 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24281588671718493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; W@1.40; L@2.01; W@1.63; L@5.83; L@3.54. Wealth 2.116 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8179006017982506}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.86 (win pays 1.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.01; W@1.63; L@5.83; L@3.54; L@1.33. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35334409147058043}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.59 (win pays 4.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; W@1.63; L@5.83; L@3.54; L@1.33; L@2.86. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17747456790422717}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; L@5.83; L@3.54; L@1.33; L@2.86; W@5.59. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8244650637270756}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.83; L@3.54; L@1.33; L@2.86; W@5.59; W@1.21. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3267528576520622}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.54; L@1.33; L@2.86; W@5.59; W@1.21; L@2.63. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7642838039550842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; L@2.86; W@5.59; W@1.21; L@2.63; W@1.19. Wealth 1.481 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34943091173791674}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.86; W@5.59; W@1.21; L@2.63; W@1.19; L@3.14. Wealth 1.407 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7849544617517957}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.78 (win pays 2.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.59; W@1.21; L@2.63; W@1.19; L@3.14; W@1.41. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2314703752169775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; L@2.63; W@1.19; L@3.14; W@1.41; L@3.78. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7478561035270503}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; W@1.19; L@3.14; W@1.41; L@3.78; L@1.17. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42435240869857593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; L@3.14; W@1.41; L@3.78; L@1.17; W@2.37. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.724461459539001}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.14; W@1.41; L@3.78; L@1.17; W@2.37; W@1.36. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7726858501396447}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@3.78; L@1.17; W@2.37; W@1.36; W@1.17. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7890217506543249}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.78; L@1.17; W@2.37; W@1.36; W@1.17; L@1.18. Wealth 1.581 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.373665134546271}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; W@2.37; W@1.36; W@1.17; L@1.18; W@3.03. Wealth 1.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6489339781870569}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.37; W@1.36; W@1.17; L@1.18; W@3.03; L@1.69. Wealth 1.480 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7842085740250399}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.76 (win pays 2.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.17; L@1.18; W@3.03; L@1.69; L@1.30. Wealth 1.406 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2500647523277145}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.18; W@3.03; L@1.69; L@1.30; W@3.76. Wealth 1.406 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6085831423564407}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.18; W@3.03; L@1.69; L@1.30; W@3.76; L@1.88. Wealth 1.195 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5831628928273136}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.94 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.03; L@1.69; L@1.30; W@3.76; L@1.88; L@1.66. Wealth 1.195 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.808884835212267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.69; L@1.30; W@3.76; L@1.88; L@1.66; W@1.38. Wealth 1.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7263329748208427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.30; W@3.76; L@1.88; L@1.66; W@1.38; W@1.40. Wealth 1.360 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3389992628514514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.95 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.76; L@1.88; L@1.66; W@1.38; W@1.40; L@2.80. Wealth 1.360 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8083117598850308}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; L@1.66; W@1.38; W@1.40; L@2.80; L@1.28. Wealth 1.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7635033025828564}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; W@1.38; W@1.40; L@2.80; L@1.28; W@1.46. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7079276093327577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.40; L@2.80; L@1.28; W@1.46; L@1.36. Wealth 1.336 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7481097654217458}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.80; L@1.28; W@1.46; L@1.36; W@1.40. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4497499024947115}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.79 (win pays 1.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; L@1.28; W@1.46; L@1.36; W@1.40; L@2.16. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3500960871289197}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.48 (win pays 2.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.28; W@1.46; L@1.36; W@1.40; L@2.16; L@2.79. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2550547672341633}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.32 (win pays 2.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; L@1.36; W@1.40; L@2.16; L@2.79; L@3.48. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30754312420346347}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.36; W@1.40; L@2.16; L@2.79; L@3.48; L@3.32. Wealth 1.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7127424209157281}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.50 (win pays 2.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.16; L@2.79; L@3.48; L@3.32; W@1.54. Wealth 1.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2588452290314608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.45 (win pays 4.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; L@2.79; L@3.48; L@3.32; W@1.54; L@3.50. Wealth 1.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18300974713185755}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.79; L@3.48; L@3.32; W@1.54; L@3.50; W@5.45. Wealth 1.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7542558382972798}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.48; L@3.32; W@1.54; L@3.50; W@5.45; L@1.38. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7474413471232041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.32; W@1.54; L@3.50; W@5.45; L@1.38; W@1.20. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4584631743480614}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@3.50; W@5.45; L@1.38; W@1.20; W@1.97. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2654424500242868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.50; W@5.45; L@1.38; W@1.20; W@1.97; W@3.73. Wealth 1.385 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6681860007374696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.45; L@1.38; W@1.20; W@1.97; W@3.73; L@1.55. Wealth 1.315 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.849822609622289}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.38 (win pays 2.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.20; W@1.97; W@3.73; L@1.55; L@1.25. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28581591688966146}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.97; W@3.73; L@1.55; L@1.25; W@3.38. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4248677643874932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; W@3.73; L@1.55; L@1.25; W@3.38; L@2.56. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6353859131080624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.73; L@1.55; L@1.25; W@3.38; L@2.56; L@1.63. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4065226980012453}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.55; L@1.25; W@3.38; L@2.56; L@1.63; L@2.81. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.836550509598184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; W@3.38; L@2.56; L@1.63; L@2.81; W@1.09. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.508122746137491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.38; L@2.56; L@1.63; L@2.81; W@1.09; W@1.92. Wealth 0.855 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5713856376878557}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.56; L@1.63; L@2.81; W@1.09; W@1.92; L@1.97. Wealth 0.727 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5279827368981754}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; L@2.81; W@1.09; W@1.92; L@1.97; L@2.02. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3738952623740579}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.81; W@1.09; W@1.92; L@1.97; L@2.02; L@2.45. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5839512300749989}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.91 (win pays 5.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.09; W@1.92; L@1.97; L@2.02; L@2.45; W@1.70. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1635616532420181}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; L@1.97; L@2.02; L@2.45; W@1.70; L@6.91. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5607795375383033}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; L@2.02; L@2.45; W@1.70; L@6.91; L@1.59. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.575095754364404}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; L@2.45; W@1.70; L@6.91; L@1.59; W@1.58. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3690224335779795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; W@1.70; L@6.91; L@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.47. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4253796962151898}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@6.91; L@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.47; L@2.23. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7022972134274288}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.18 (win pays 4.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.91; L@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.47; L@2.23; W@1.27. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21120649008793954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.47; L@2.23; W@1.27; L@5.18. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5283710407361375}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@2.47; L@2.23; W@1.27; L@5.18; W@1.64. Wealth 0.690 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8081699256354353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; L@2.23; W@1.27; L@5.18; W@1.64; W@1.42. Wealth 0.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45874450823884527}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.27 (win pays 5.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.23; W@1.27; L@5.18; W@1.64; W@1.42; L@2.46. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16383785857756364}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@5.18; W@1.64; W@1.42; L@2.46; L@6.27. Wealth 0.726 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3894860657522071}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.18; W@1.64; W@1.42; L@2.46; L@6.27; W@2.89. Wealth 0.794 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5538806932232752}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; W@1.42; L@2.46; L@6.27; W@2.89; W@2.07. Wealth 0.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8412766311172465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@2.46; L@6.27; W@2.89; W@2.07; W@1.10. Wealth 0.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4499012152944022}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.67 (win pays 2.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; L@6.27; W@2.89; W@2.07; W@1.10; W@2.28. Wealth 0.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2658560069735156}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.27; W@2.89; W@2.07; W@1.10; W@2.28; L@3.67. Wealth 0.922 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2511173947086373}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.89; W@2.07; W@1.10; W@2.28; L@3.67; L@4.44. Wealth 0.876 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26588653741611507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.09 (win pays 4.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.07; W@1.10; W@2.28; L@3.67; L@4.44; L@4.08. Wealth 0.832 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1683738346721917}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.10; W@2.28; L@3.67; L@4.44; L@4.08; L@5.09. Wealth 0.832 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7921095559918044}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.28; L@3.67; L@4.44; L@4.08; L@5.09; W@1.36. Wealth 0.891 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7243123245255187}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.67; L@4.44; L@4.08; L@5.09; W@1.36; W@1.51. Wealth 0.982 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5097527107167803}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.44; L@4.08; L@5.09; W@1.36; W@1.51; W@2.08. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3745918255960863}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.87 (win pays 1.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; L@5.09; W@1.36; W@1.51; W@2.08; W@2.41. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40083975251922066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.09; W@1.36; W@1.51; W@2.08; W@2.41; L@2.87. Wealth 0.932 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28265849151038064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.51; W@2.08; W@2.41; L@2.87; L@3.04. Wealth 0.932 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33106757368045175}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7240467553491324}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52. Wealth 0.800 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2599972835506778}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.93 (win pays 1.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.69. Wealth 0.800 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3459809799298219}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.69; L@2.93. Wealth 0.800 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.652632883371552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.69; L@2.93; W@1.75. Wealth 0.921 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3944568003795501}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.69; L@2.93; W@1.75; L@2.58. Wealth 0.921 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6657963352325711}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.69; L@2.93; W@1.75; L@2.58; W@1.60. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6221218639465301}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; L@2.93; W@1.75; L@2.58; W@1.60; W@1.47. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8178307127269249}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.93; W@1.75; L@2.58; W@1.60; W@1.47; W@1.27. Wealth 1.016 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6164320539823203}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@2.58; W@1.60; W@1.47; W@1.27; L@1.45. Wealth 1.016 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46580397292951126}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.58; W@1.60; W@1.47; W@1.27; L@1.45; W@2.46. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7445910020931313}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@1.47; W@1.27; L@1.45; W@2.46; L@1.25. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6389007504669646}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@1.27; L@1.45; W@2.46; L@1.25; L@1.48. Wealth 1.164 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6607834552921105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@1.45; W@2.46; L@1.25; L@1.48; L@1.72. Wealth 0.931 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3479311206355248}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@2.46; L@1.25; L@1.48; L@1.72; L@3.27. Wealth 0.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6154958234461352}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.92 (win pays 4.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.46; L@1.25; L@1.48; L@1.72; L@3.27; W@1.66. Wealth 0.914 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18919218376955443}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; L@1.48; L@1.72; L@3.27; W@1.66; W@5.92. Wealth 1.139 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7584413443062074}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.40 (win pays 1.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.48; L@1.72; L@3.27; W@1.66; W@5.92; L@1.38. Wealth 0.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3615136307897243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.72; L@3.27; W@1.66; W@5.92; L@1.38; W@2.40. Wealth 0.968 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.653669356767982}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.64 (win pays 2.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.27; W@1.66; W@5.92; L@1.38; W@2.40; W@1.61. Wealth 1.028 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2765149690852692}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.40 (win pays 2.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; W@5.92; L@1.38; W@2.40; W@1.61; L@3.64. Wealth 1.028 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33743358549226393}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.14 (win pays 2.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.92; L@1.38; W@2.40; W@1.61; L@3.64; L@3.40. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32133307903934083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.38 (win pays 2.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@2.40; W@1.61; L@3.64; L@3.40; W@3.14. Wealth 0.976 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32429394457521865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.40; W@1.61; L@3.64; L@3.40; W@3.14; L@3.38. Wealth 0.927 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5000836057485412}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.95 (win pays 1.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@3.64; L@3.40; W@3.14; L@3.38; W@1.77. Wealth 0.927 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30529202992562776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.64; L@3.40; W@3.14; L@3.38; W@1.77; L@2.95. Wealth 0.927 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5646812381379076}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.40; W@3.14; L@3.38; W@1.77; L@2.95; W@1.69. Wealth 0.927 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4750889122919483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.14; L@3.38; W@1.77; L@2.95; W@1.69; L@2.39. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3103009232761842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.10 (win pays 3.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.38; W@1.77; L@2.95; W@1.69; L@2.39; L@3.19. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23986201188127226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.94 (win pays 2.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@2.95; W@1.69; L@2.39; L@3.19; L@4.10. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2535305374532071}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.95; W@1.69; L@2.39; L@3.19; L@4.10; L@3.94. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4530629399496826}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.09 (win pays 5.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; L@2.39; L@3.19; L@4.10; L@3.94; L@1.99. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17684447930895095}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.10 (win pays 1.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.39; L@3.19; L@4.10; L@3.94; L@1.99; L@6.09. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4699717758487535}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.19; L@4.10; L@3.94; L@1.99; L@6.09; L@2.10. Wealth 0.835 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5977474829197704}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.10; L@3.94; L@1.99; L@6.09; L@2.10; W@1.84. Wealth 0.905 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6763159711549832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.79 (win pays 4.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.94; L@1.99; L@6.09; L@2.10; W@1.84; L@1.53. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17307675656294388}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.99; L@6.09; L@2.10; W@1.84; L@1.53; L@5.79. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6463876216126446}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.09; L@2.10; W@1.84; L@1.53; L@5.79; L@1.42. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4466730293073179}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.10; W@1.84; L@1.53; L@5.79; L@1.42; L@2.18. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3343327734967261}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.00 (win pays 3.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; L@1.53; L@5.79; L@1.42; L@2.18; W@2.98. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22367129692481566}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; L@5.79; L@1.42; L@2.18; W@2.98; L@4.00. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6117004144112831}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.79; L@1.42; L@2.18; W@2.98; L@4.00; L@1.53. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.68558266510029}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; L@2.18; W@2.98; L@4.00; L@1.53; W@1.45. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47855548026064154}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.84 (win pays 2.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.18; W@2.98; L@4.00; L@1.53; W@1.45; W@2.00. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23050023413743767}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; L@4.00; L@1.53; W@1.45; W@2.00; L@3.84. Wealth 0.860 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.546476233191255}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.00; L@1.53; W@1.45; W@2.00; L@3.84; W@1.90. Wealth 0.899 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7837946541248902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.44 (win pays 4.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.45; W@2.00; L@3.84; W@1.90; W@1.14. Wealth 0.899 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20210840991230172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@2.00; L@3.84; W@1.90; W@1.14; L@5.44. Wealth 0.899 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36402882461900243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.65 (win pays 1.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; L@3.84; W@1.90; W@1.14; L@5.44; L@2.65. Wealth 0.899 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4174508738187389}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.15 (win pays 2.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.84; W@1.90; W@1.14; L@5.44; L@2.65; L@2.65. Wealth 0.854 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3160303677403225}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@1.14; L@5.44; L@2.65; L@2.65; L@3.15. Wealth 0.854 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6187672639510103}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@5.44; L@2.65; L@2.65; L@3.15; W@1.81. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5607248740014511}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.44; L@2.65; L@2.65; L@3.15; W@1.81; W@1.67. Wealth 0.957 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5475983319200445}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.19 (win pays 0.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; L@2.65; L@3.15; W@1.81; W@1.67; W@1.96. Wealth 1.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7935592355821005}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.65; L@3.15; W@1.81; W@1.67; W@1.96; W@1.19. Wealth 1.050 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6741706566425358}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.15; W@1.81; W@1.67; W@1.96; W@1.19; W@1.58. Wealth 1.111 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8040211936389331}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.13 (win pays 4.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; W@1.67; W@1.96; W@1.19; W@1.58; L@1.21. Wealth 1.111 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1879738619385298}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.63 (win pays 3.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; W@1.96; W@1.19; W@1.58; L@1.21; L@5.13. Wealth 1.111 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22679761283258962}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; W@1.19; W@1.58; L@1.21; L@5.13; W@4.63. Wealth 1.111 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3865536046332634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.51 (win pays 3.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.19; W@1.58; L@1.21; L@5.13; W@4.63; W@2.92. Wealth 1.218 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21865474573185378}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; L@1.21; L@5.13; W@4.63; W@2.92; L@4.51. Wealth 1.218 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5692055651318135}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.55 (win pays 2.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.21; L@5.13; W@4.63; W@2.92; L@4.51; W@1.71. Wealth 1.218 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3226098216689992}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.13; W@4.63; W@2.92; L@4.51; W@1.71; L@3.55. Wealth 1.157 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3954579433003858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.63; W@2.92; L@4.51; W@1.71; L@3.55; L@2.76. Wealth 1.099 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5560033506577201}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.92; L@4.51; W@1.71; L@3.55; L@2.76; W@1.98. Wealth 1.206 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5895071122133015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.51; W@1.71; L@3.55; L@2.76; W@1.98; W@1.87. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7555108279085555}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@3.55; L@2.76; W@1.98; W@1.87; W@1.32. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7271703077934548}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.85 (win pays 1.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.55; L@2.76; W@1.98; W@1.87; W@1.32; W@1.20. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3124306024407182}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; W@1.98; W@1.87; W@1.32; W@1.20; W@2.85. Wealth 1.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5727517557773792}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; W@1.87; W@1.32; W@1.20; W@2.85; W@1.87. Wealth 1.426 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7659256385888416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.32; W@1.20; W@2.85; W@1.87; W@1.13. Wealth 1.426 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.652201097133432}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.20; W@2.85; W@1.87; W@1.13; W@1.65. Wealth 1.518 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6821850011403362}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@2.85; W@1.87; W@1.13; W@1.65; W@1.55. Wealth 1.602 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5009517302399046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.85 (win pays 3.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.85; W@1.87; W@1.13; W@1.65; W@1.55; L@2.27. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22126217510263213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; W@1.13; W@1.65; W@1.55; L@2.27; L@4.85. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39047687304000095}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.74 (win pays 1.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@1.65; W@1.55; L@2.27; L@4.85; L@2.51. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4066191261180796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; W@1.55; L@2.27; L@4.85; L@2.51; L@2.74. Wealth 1.369 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6114739453473111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@2.27; L@4.85; L@2.51; L@2.74; W@1.75. Wealth 1.472 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7589450113037842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; L@4.85; L@2.51; L@2.74; W@1.75; W@1.30. Wealth 1.472 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5897117555561694}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.85; L@2.51; L@2.74; W@1.75; W@1.30; L@1.95. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5240631357150496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.51; L@2.74; W@1.75; W@1.30; L@1.95; L@1.73. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37507290584423403}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.74; W@1.75; W@1.30; L@1.95; L@1.73; W@2.41. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7066351113659057}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.30; L@1.95; L@1.73; W@2.41; W@1.36. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.808088114072418}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@1.95; L@1.73; W@2.41; W@1.36; W@1.14. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26662731610201845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.95; L@1.73; W@2.41; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@3.47. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3625898448145411}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; W@2.41; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@3.47; L@2.63. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5126506926990938}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.41; W@1.36; W@1.14; L@3.47; L@2.63; W@1.84. Wealth 1.251 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6671501792772174}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.14; L@3.47; L@2.63; W@1.84; W@1.64. Wealth 1.371 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7801161124361299}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@3.47; L@2.63; W@1.84; W@1.64; W@1.36. Wealth 1.471 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4440762762515046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; L@2.63; W@1.84; W@1.64; W@1.36; W@2.44. Wealth 1.577 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8097828440434804}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; W@1.84; W@1.64; W@1.36; W@2.44; W@1.13. Wealth 1.577 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6976130779348378}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; W@1.64; W@1.36; W@2.44; W@1.13; W@1.55. Wealth 1.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6758125509485267}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.51 (win pays 1.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; W@1.36; W@2.44; W@1.13; W@1.55; W@1.38. Wealth 1.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3547149840488505}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@2.44; W@1.13; W@1.55; W@1.38; W@2.51. Wealth 1.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33809578622266134}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.44; W@1.13; W@1.55; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@2.67. Wealth 1.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4237126401232698}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.62 (win pays 2.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@1.55; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@2.67; W@2.14. Wealth 1.707 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29464699264093586}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@1.38; W@2.51; L@2.67; W@2.14; L@3.62. Wealth 1.622 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6166903822100083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@2.51; L@2.67; W@2.14; L@3.62; L@1.69. Wealth 1.541 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.699159595854639}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.51; L@2.67; W@2.14; L@3.62; L@1.69; L@1.59. Wealth 1.233 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.536803490797491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.67; W@2.14; L@3.62; L@1.69; L@1.59; L@1.97. Wealth 1.171 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6452344858311776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7192974283687715}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.64 (win pays 3.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45. Wealth 1.045 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2311012379537728}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.41 (win pays 3.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.64. Wealth 1.045 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22608373542729682}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.64; L@4.41. Wealth 1.045 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6889015036509318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.64; L@4.41; W@1.62. Wealth 1.174 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6548545981817113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.64; L@4.41; W@1.62; W@1.64. Wealth 1.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6034180289812151}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.29 (win pays 3.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; L@4.64; L@4.41; W@1.62; W@1.64; W@1.54. Wealth 1.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2029866322576639}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.64; L@4.41; W@1.62; W@1.64; W@1.54; L@4.29. Wealth 1.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6839253594932879}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.41; W@1.62; W@1.64; W@1.54; L@4.29; L@1.38. Wealth 1.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7996191865781795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; W@1.64; W@1.54; L@4.29; L@1.38; W@1.33. Wealth 1.331 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5667104351367511}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; W@1.54; L@4.29; L@1.38; W@1.33; L@1.52. Wealth 1.331 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4143490865710403}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@4.29; L@1.38; W@1.33; L@1.52; W@2.18. Wealth 1.331 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6441324428016753}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.29; L@1.38; W@1.33; L@1.52; W@2.18; L@1.33. Wealth 1.331 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4062212090019328}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.33; L@1.52; W@2.18; L@1.33; L@2.70. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4035666121614868}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; L@1.52; W@2.18; L@1.33; L@2.70; L@2.26. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8274081516384371}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; W@2.18; L@1.33; L@2.70; L@2.26; W@1.25. Wealth 1.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.353099410700742}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@1.33; L@2.70; L@2.26; W@1.25; L@2.90. Wealth 1.312 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40731515117135353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.33; L@2.70; L@2.26; W@1.25; L@2.90; L@2.76. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4196494404611413}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.86 (win pays 4.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; L@2.26; W@1.25; L@2.90; L@2.76; L@2.15. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1604461320366094}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.87 (win pays 3.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.26; W@1.25; L@2.90; L@2.76; L@2.15; L@5.86. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.178723553748858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@2.90; L@2.76; L@2.15; L@5.86; L@4.87. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6857666633662733}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.74 (win pays 4.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.90; L@2.76; L@2.15; L@5.86; L@4.87; W@1.42. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16646498970559082}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; L@2.15; L@5.86; L@4.87; W@1.42; L@5.74. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43646713393704917}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.15; L@5.86; L@4.87; W@1.42; L@5.74; L@2.36. Wealth 1.246 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7862457243065217}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.86; L@4.87; W@1.42; L@5.74; L@2.36; W@1.33. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4612542722753481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.87; W@1.42; L@5.74; L@2.36; W@1.33; W@1.98. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2549780859679708}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@5.74; L@2.36; W@1.33; W@1.98; L@3.69. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43687906624357187}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.74; L@2.36; W@1.33; W@1.98; L@3.69; L@2.17. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37110474976244423}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; W@1.33; W@1.98; L@3.69; L@2.17; L@2.73. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4244828229309616}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.82 (win pays 4.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.98; L@3.69; L@2.17; L@2.73; L@2.66. Wealth 1.177 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19731921166088684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.98; L@3.69; L@2.17; L@2.73; L@2.66; L@5.82. Wealth 1.118 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3726171474263845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; L@2.17; L@2.73; L@2.66; L@5.82; W@2.37. Wealth 1.118 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.630649835397321}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; L@2.73; L@2.66; L@5.82; W@2.37; L@1.50. Wealth 1.118 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48922200507346714}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.73; L@2.66; L@5.82; W@2.37; L@1.50; L@2.14. Wealth 1.062 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7670040141934531}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.28 (win pays 4.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; L@5.82; W@2.37; L@1.50; L@2.14; W@1.48. Wealth 1.215 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16975289733882454}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.78 (win pays 4.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.82; W@2.37; L@1.50; L@2.14; W@1.48; L@5.28. Wealth 1.215 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18785646491070937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.37; L@1.50; L@2.14; W@1.48; L@5.28; W@5.78. Wealth 1.215 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5659944683810348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; L@2.14; W@1.48; L@5.28; W@5.78; W@1.90. Wealth 1.324 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8173197262377734}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@1.48; L@5.28; W@5.78; W@1.90; W@1.20. Wealth 1.324 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7233953354178168}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@5.28; W@5.78; W@1.90; W@1.20; L@1.56. Wealth 1.059 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6663144062093618}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.47 (win pays 4.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.28; W@5.78; W@1.90; W@1.20; L@1.56; L@1.58. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18653855070333233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.30 (win pays 1.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.78; W@1.90; W@1.20; L@1.56; L@1.58; W@5.47. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4299120148846066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.90; W@1.20; L@1.56; L@1.58; W@5.47; W@2.30. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41750891095278986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; L@1.56; L@1.58; W@5.47; W@2.30; L@2.11. Wealth 0.953 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.712266799122472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; L@1.58; W@5.47; W@2.30; L@2.11; L@1.58. Wealth 0.763 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3580689673011832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; W@5.47; W@2.30; L@2.11; L@1.58; W@3.17. Wealth 0.846 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7469828824564454}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.47; W@2.30; L@2.11; L@1.58; W@3.17; W@1.41. Wealth 0.898 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8235464555308234}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.30; L@2.11; L@1.58; W@3.17; W@1.41; L@1.16. Wealth 0.898 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38511623738143763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.11; L@1.58; W@3.17; W@1.41; L@1.16; W@2.32. Wealth 0.898 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5526045596718988}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.58; W@3.17; W@1.41; L@1.16; W@2.32; L@1.88. Wealth 0.853 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6258254034591845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.17; W@1.41; L@1.16; W@2.32; L@1.88; W@1.66. Wealth 0.881 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5191873385628535}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; L@1.16; W@2.32; L@1.88; W@1.66; W@1.67. Wealth 0.881 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.56280353539848}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.18 (win pays 2.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.16; W@2.32; L@1.88; W@1.66; W@1.67; L@1.91. Wealth 0.793 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3355118787910122}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; L@1.88; W@1.66; W@1.67; L@1.91; L@3.18. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4349999730587}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; W@1.66; W@1.67; L@1.91; L@3.18; W@2.38. Wealth 0.753 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6874331407490414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; W@1.67; L@1.91; L@3.18; W@2.38; W@1.55. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6843281894785956}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@1.91; L@3.18; W@2.38; W@1.55; L@1.31. Wealth 0.795 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33659728934026456}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.33 (win pays 5.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@3.18; W@2.38; W@1.55; L@1.31; L@3.26. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17346451059757503}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.48 (win pays 2.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.18; W@2.38; W@1.55; L@1.31; L@3.26; W@6.33. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2552287665815324}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.38; W@1.55; L@1.31; L@3.26; W@6.33; L@3.48. Wealth 0.755 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6012281984722534}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; L@1.31; L@3.26; W@6.33; L@3.48; W@1.69. Wealth 0.781 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23870723111261832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.22 (win pays 4.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.31; L@3.26; W@6.33; L@3.48; W@1.69; L@4.08. Wealth 0.781 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21235238054309075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; W@6.33; L@3.48; W@1.69; L@4.08; L@5.22. Wealth 0.742 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47593653520150525}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.33; L@3.48; W@1.69; L@4.08; L@5.22; W@2.12. Wealth 0.742 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4222043616785288}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.48; W@1.69; L@4.08; L@5.22; W@2.12; W@2.11. Wealth 0.742 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.743864960581481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; L@4.08; L@5.22; W@2.12; W@2.11; W@1.39. Wealth 0.772 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.788747794880538}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; L@5.22; W@2.12; W@2.11; W@1.39; L@1.38. Wealth 0.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39318215461219674}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.24 (win pays 2.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.22; W@2.12; W@2.11; W@1.39; L@1.38; W@2.27. Wealth 0.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3364863380644657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.12; W@2.11; W@1.39; L@1.38; W@2.27; L@3.24. Wealth 0.586 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3910909503370246}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.53 (win pays 1.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.11; W@1.39; L@1.38; W@2.27; L@3.24; L@2.57. Wealth 0.586 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33621131296380674}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@1.38; W@2.27; L@3.24; L@2.57; L@2.53. Wealth 0.586 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8094443717742498}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.01 (win pays 3.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@2.27; L@3.24; L@2.57; L@2.53; W@1.38. Wealth 0.653 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21638087805704967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; L@3.24; L@2.57; L@2.53; W@1.38; L@4.01. Wealth 0.653 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6964136359814704}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.24; L@2.57; L@2.53; W@1.38; L@4.01; L@1.50. Wealth 0.588 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.64173828252293}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.55 (win pays 2.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@2.53; W@1.38; L@4.01; L@1.50; W@1.66. Wealth 0.627 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3200186642861204}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.63 (win pays 4.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.53; W@1.38; L@4.01; L@1.50; W@1.66; L@3.55. Wealth 0.595 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19068691727625048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@4.01; L@1.50; W@1.66; L@3.55; L@5.63. Wealth 0.595 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45651544951024237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.01; L@1.50; W@1.66; L@3.55; L@5.63; W@2.24. Wealth 0.595 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.752933142397618}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.50; W@1.66; L@3.55; L@5.63; W@2.24; W@1.49. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4312526480079919}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@3.55; L@5.63; W@2.24; W@1.49; L@2.32. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5731591503171565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.55; L@5.63; W@2.24; W@1.49; L@2.32; W@1.75. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7153597506133537}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.63; W@2.24; W@1.49; L@2.32; W@1.75; W@1.26. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6874928207606268}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.92 (win pays 3.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; W@1.49; L@2.32; W@1.75; W@1.26; W@1.32. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2104814145132386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@2.32; W@1.75; W@1.26; W@1.32; L@4.92. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.669770265704215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.32; W@1.75; W@1.26; W@1.32; L@4.92; W@1.49. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7108930860581584}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.18 (win pays 3.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@1.26; W@1.32; L@4.92; W@1.49; W@1.39. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21541959196782184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@1.32; L@4.92; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@4.18. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5437386242238605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@4.92; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@4.18; W@1.70. Wealth 0.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42896976307008394}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.92; W@1.49; W@1.39; L@4.18; W@1.70; L@2.57. Wealth 0.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25952345820204886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; W@1.39; L@4.18; W@1.70; L@2.57; L@3.57. Wealth 0.621 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.800692979128082}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.55 (win pays 1.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@4.18; W@1.70; L@2.57; L@3.57; W@1.37. Wealth 0.689 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.433012269287259}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.18; W@1.70; L@2.57; L@3.57; W@1.37; W@2.55. Wealth 0.743 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5034803706919013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@2.57; L@3.57; W@1.37; W@2.55; L@2.14. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5712803747551604}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.57; L@3.57; W@1.37; W@2.55; L@2.14; W@1.58. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5994738199925909}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; W@1.37; W@2.55; L@2.14; W@1.58; W@1.45. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.724533346571498}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@2.55; L@2.14; W@1.58; W@1.45; W@1.20. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.787310451518407}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.55; L@2.14; W@1.58; W@1.45; W@1.20; W@1.23. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49253411471892417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.14; W@1.58; W@1.45; W@1.20; W@1.23; L@1.96. Wealth 0.706 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6125593243643155}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.45; W@1.20; W@1.23; L@1.96; L@1.75. Wealth 0.635 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5108375650876659}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.20; W@1.23; L@1.96; L@1.75; L@2.09. Wealth 0.603 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5494091890031417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7542124576388627}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.10 (win pays 4.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18405018953819047}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.56 (win pays 2.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; L@5.10. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2979480534703842}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.55 (win pays 5.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; L@5.10; W@3.56. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17136018041059542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; L@5.10; W@3.56; L@6.55. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.498062468840493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; L@5.10; W@3.56; L@6.55; L@1.87. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7985955555817343}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.20; L@5.10; W@3.56; L@6.55; L@1.87; W@1.21. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8056018930382365}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.10; W@3.56; L@6.55; L@1.87; W@1.21; W@1.31. Wealth 1.046 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5236658005343419}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.56; L@6.55; L@1.87; W@1.21; W@1.31; L@2.07. Wealth 0.942 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3844985950632429}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.55; L@1.87; W@1.21; W@1.31; L@2.07; L@2.76. Wealth 0.894 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6842276862238635}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.87; W@1.21; W@1.31; L@2.07; L@2.76; W@1.34. Wealth 0.894 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6153505392452572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.72 (win pays 2.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; W@1.31; L@2.07; L@2.76; W@1.34; W@1.81. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2742072076862455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@2.07; L@2.76; W@1.34; W@1.81; L@3.72. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42776130509275967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 6.04 (win pays 5.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; L@2.76; W@1.34; W@1.81; L@3.72; L@2.11. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16695161514564572}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; W@1.34; W@1.81; L@3.72; L@2.11; W@6.04. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30182214102834926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.81; L@3.72; L@2.11; W@6.04; L@2.97. Wealth 1.003 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3782399227390253}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; L@3.72; L@2.11; W@6.04; L@2.97; L@2.92. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5574548065836098}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.72 (win pays 4.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.72; L@2.11; W@6.04; L@2.97; L@2.92; W@1.61. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18904163581905994}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.11; W@6.04; L@2.97; L@2.92; W@1.61; L@5.72. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6498956929862237}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.04; L@2.97; L@2.92; W@1.61; L@5.72; L@1.53. Wealth 0.952 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5376424702157485}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.51 (win pays 4.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; L@2.92; W@1.61; L@5.72; L@1.53; W@1.94. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18940066450282522}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.67 (win pays 1.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.92; W@1.61; L@5.72; L@1.53; W@1.94; L@5.51. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42054106817019576}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; L@5.72; L@1.53; W@1.94; L@5.51; W@2.67. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6346440620585186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.72; L@1.53; W@1.94; L@5.51; W@2.67; W@1.54. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7095464130747661}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.47 (win pays 1.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.94; L@5.51; W@2.67; W@1.54; W@1.26. Wealth 1.080 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4543678318721174}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@5.51; W@2.67; W@1.54; W@1.26; W@2.47. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5249287117569201}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.53 (win pays 1.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.51; W@2.67; W@1.54; W@1.26; W@2.47; W@1.75. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4205481548487541}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.67; W@1.54; W@1.26; W@2.47; W@1.75; L@2.53. Wealth 1.177 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4025280599812011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.56 (win pays 1.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; W@1.26; W@2.47; W@1.75; L@2.53; W@2.13. Wealth 1.177 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41492986495353024}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@2.47; W@1.75; L@2.53; W@2.13; L@2.56. Wealth 1.118 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5650855275555254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.47; W@1.75; L@2.53; W@2.13; L@2.56; W@2.02. Wealth 1.289 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6072658576874488}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@2.53; W@2.13; L@2.56; W@2.02; W@1.71. Wealth 1.335 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.588360011142381}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.58 (win pays 5.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.53; W@2.13; L@2.56; W@2.02; W@1.71; L@1.49. Wealth 1.335 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1672910777652129}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.13; L@2.56; W@2.02; W@1.71; L@1.49; L@6.58. Wealth 1.335 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6978913484005701}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.56; W@2.02; W@1.71; L@1.49; L@6.58; W@1.37. Wealth 1.335 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6830251389314346}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.02; W@1.71; L@1.49; L@6.58; W@1.37; W@1.65. Wealth 1.507 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7181234338912069}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.71; L@1.49; L@6.58; W@1.37; W@1.65; L@1.29. Wealth 1.507 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7766113556388595}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.49; L@6.58; W@1.37; W@1.65; L@1.29; L@1.12. Wealth 1.507 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4738485120613407}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.20 (win pays 3.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.58; W@1.37; W@1.65; L@1.29; L@1.12; L@1.82. Wealth 1.507 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26150598972991507}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.65; L@1.29; L@1.12; L@1.82; L@4.20. Wealth 1.432 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5941950531681661}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@1.29; L@1.12; L@1.82; L@4.20; W@1.92. Wealth 1.631 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6449181427515763}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.76 (win pays 2.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; L@1.12; L@1.82; L@4.20; W@1.92; W@1.47. Wealth 1.631 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2797657855906243}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.12; L@1.82; L@4.20; W@1.92; W@1.47; L@3.76. Wealth 1.631 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5773471919089697}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@4.20; W@1.92; W@1.47; L@3.76; L@1.64. Wealth 1.631 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6672723085370755}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.20; W@1.92; W@1.47; L@3.76; L@1.64; L@1.52. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8008530100343978}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; W@1.47; L@3.76; L@1.64; L@1.52; L@1.17. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5494715784729326}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; L@3.76; L@1.64; L@1.52; L@1.17; L@1.59. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6269659107250625}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.76; L@1.64; L@1.52; L@1.17; L@1.59; L@1.53. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6793316226862414}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.86 (win pays 3.86x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; L@1.52; L@1.17; L@1.59; L@1.53; W@1.42. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2168241142585531}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@1.17; L@1.59; L@1.53; W@1.42; L@4.86. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.389683613712435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.38 (win pays 1.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.17; L@1.59; L@1.53; W@1.42; L@4.86; L@2.37. Wealth 1.549 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46873640266968497}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.59; L@1.53; W@1.42; L@4.86; L@2.37; L@2.38. Wealth 1.394 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7072783897466384}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.42; L@4.86; L@2.37; L@2.38; W@1.29. Wealth 1.394 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4323886008272987}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.42; L@4.86; L@2.37; L@2.38; W@1.29; W@2.27. Wealth 1.394 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.72505256114017}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.86; L@2.37; L@2.38; W@1.29; W@2.27; W@1.34. Wealth 1.394 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40676871210599597}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.96 (win pays 0.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; L@2.38; W@1.29; W@2.27; W@1.34; L@2.22. Wealth 1.394 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5796855856954172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.87 (win pays 2.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.38; W@1.29; W@2.27; W@1.34; L@2.22; W@1.96. Wealth 1.595 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27839801373887496}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@2.27; W@1.34; L@2.22; W@1.96; W@3.87. Wealth 1.824 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7487608418849574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.27; W@1.34; L@2.22; W@1.96; W@3.87; L@1.29. Wealth 1.824 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6425328704209099}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@2.22; W@1.96; W@3.87; L@1.29; W@1.60. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7869377864910468}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.73 (win pays 1.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@1.96; W@3.87; L@1.29; W@1.60; W@1.16. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3574423344723784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.96; W@3.87; L@1.29; W@1.60; W@1.16; W@2.73. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5952386448542922}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.87; L@1.29; W@1.60; W@1.16; W@2.73; W@1.50. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49049477493406546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.29; W@1.60; W@1.16; W@2.73; W@1.50; L@1.99. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5482091199868016}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; W@1.16; W@2.73; W@1.50; L@1.99; L@1.63. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8417272849432876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.02 (win pays 4.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@2.73; W@1.50; L@1.99; L@1.63; W@1.18. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17897137877882266}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.73; W@1.50; L@1.99; L@1.63; W@1.18; W@5.02. Wealth 1.879 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5201286697043388}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; L@1.99; L@1.63; W@1.18; W@5.02; L@2.19. Wealth 1.691 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5169767773067092}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.44 (win pays 2.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.99; L@1.63; W@1.18; W@5.02; L@2.19; L@2.13. Wealth 1.522 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2661123955095127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@1.18; W@5.02; L@2.19; L@2.13; W@3.44. Wealth 1.522 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7061532856875958}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.52 (win pays 1.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; W@5.02; L@2.19; L@2.13; W@3.44; W@1.41. Wealth 1.522 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4003207649884444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.02; L@2.19; L@2.13; W@3.44; W@1.41; W@2.52. Wealth 1.522 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.58313613013806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.19; L@2.13; W@3.44; W@1.41; W@2.52; W@1.59. Wealth 1.522 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7986960938776855}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@3.44; W@1.41; W@2.52; W@1.59; W@1.34. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3769858823196353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.44; W@1.41; W@2.52; W@1.59; W@1.34; L@2.42. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4613405699848506}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.11 (win pays 1.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@2.52; W@1.59; W@1.34; L@2.42; L@2.17. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.46622960353960075}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.29 (win pays 1.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.52; W@1.59; W@1.34; L@2.42; L@2.17; W@2.11. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4250105638359485}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@1.34; L@2.42; L@2.17; W@2.11; W@2.29. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3472094069233153}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@2.42; L@2.17; W@2.11; W@2.29; W@3.01. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.639870104482585}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; L@2.17; W@2.11; W@2.29; W@3.01; W@1.44. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8149090653796195}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.17; W@2.11; W@2.29; W@3.01; W@1.44; W@1.17. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7410750428937815}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.36 (win pays 0.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.11; W@2.29; W@3.01; W@1.44; W@1.17; W@1.31. Wealth 1.625 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7850770968216653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.05 (win pays 0.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.29; W@3.01; W@1.44; W@1.17; W@1.31; W@1.36. Wealth 1.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8290275540205461}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.32 (win pays 3.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.01; W@1.44; W@1.17; W@1.31; W@1.36; W@1.05. Wealth 1.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25565500127285123}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.17; W@1.31; W@1.36; W@1.05; L@4.32. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6507586102403671}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.31; W@1.36; W@1.05; L@4.32; W@1.49. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36647263795048723}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@1.36; W@1.05; L@4.32; W@1.49; L@2.80. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4869161125278658}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.42 (win pays 0.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.36; W@1.05; L@4.32; W@1.49; L@2.80; L@1.77. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5982220735591514}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.68 (win pays 4.68x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; L@4.32; W@1.49; L@2.80; L@1.77; L@1.42. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18100131632133912}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.00 (win pays 2.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.32; W@1.49; L@2.80; L@1.77; L@1.42; L@5.68. Wealth 1.654 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36797745356599165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@2.80; L@1.77; L@1.42; L@5.68; W@3.00. Wealth 1.819 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.760954365174716}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.60 (win pays 5.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.03 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.80; L@1.77; L@1.42; L@5.68; W@3.00; W@1.48. Wealth 2.078 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15283868680957463}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; L@1.42; L@5.68; W@3.00; W@1.48; L@6.60. Wealth 2.078 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7726032768015025}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.42; L@5.68; W@3.00; W@1.48; L@6.60; W@1.30. Wealth 2.078 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.58666151597996}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.68; W@3.00; W@1.48; L@6.60; W@1.30; W@1.59. Wealth 2.078 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4756378877879023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.00; W@1.48; L@6.60; W@1.30; W@1.59; W@2.19. Wealth 2.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37746444584360284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@6.60; W@1.30; W@1.59; W@2.19; L@2.75. Wealth 2.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25957212723185896}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.35 (win pays 5.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.60; W@1.30; W@1.59; W@2.19; L@2.75; L@3.45. Wealth 2.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16194756757841106}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.37 (win pays 4.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.59; W@2.19; L@2.75; L@3.45; L@6.35. Wealth 2.202 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2076572459156091}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@2.19; L@2.75; L@3.45; L@6.35; L@5.37. Wealth 2.092 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7063168259855052}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.21 (win pays 5.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15926415584740417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.21 (win pays 4.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17302459446093632}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.45 (win pays 2.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21; L@5.21. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32214179221476835}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21; L@5.21; L@3.45. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7161246088559449}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21; L@5.21; L@3.45; W@1.31. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34435922401626834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21; L@5.21; L@3.45; W@1.31; L@3.03. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8347551533853693}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@6.21; L@5.21; L@3.45; W@1.31; L@3.03; W@1.24. Wealth 0.984 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5597920800216011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.76 (win pays 1.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.21; L@3.45; W@1.31; L@3.03; W@1.24; W@1.87. Wealth 1.026 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32176377130894607}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.45; W@1.31; L@3.03; W@1.24; W@1.87; L@2.76. Wealth 1.026 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6774848062708444}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@3.03; W@1.24; W@1.87; L@2.76; W@1.53. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.402510259595498}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.95 (win pays 0.95x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.03; W@1.24; W@1.87; L@2.76; W@1.53; W@2.18. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.459715318311508}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@1.87; L@2.76; W@1.53; W@2.18; L@1.95. Wealth 1.054 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8106488303842262}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.87 (win pays 0.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.87; L@2.76; W@1.53; W@2.18; L@1.95; W@1.35. Wealth 1.163 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5211444971606329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.87 (win pays 1.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.76; W@1.53; W@2.18; L@1.95; W@1.35; L@1.87. Wealth 1.163 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37330953903710007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@2.18; L@1.95; W@1.35; L@1.87; L@2.87. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5051234209538409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.18; L@1.95; W@1.35; L@1.87; L@2.87; L@2.01. Wealth 1.105 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5676200034908212}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.95; W@1.35; L@1.87; L@2.87; L@2.01; W@1.82. Wealth 1.150 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5039880906947942}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@1.87; L@2.87; L@2.01; W@1.82; L@2.16. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4902401878294105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.23 (win pays 1.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.87; L@2.87; L@2.01; W@1.82; L@2.16; L@2.13. Wealth 0.983 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4352832957127034}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.87; L@2.01; W@1.82; L@2.16; L@2.13; W@2.23. Wealth 0.983 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44708251438553603}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.01; W@1.82; L@2.16; L@2.13; W@2.23; W@2.24. Wealth 0.983 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5696858612679924}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.96 (win pays 1.96x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@2.16; L@2.13; W@2.23; W@2.24; L@1.81. Wealth 0.934 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3270404343520352}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.16; L@2.13; W@2.23; W@2.24; L@1.81; W@2.96. Wealth 0.934 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42232257474533486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@2.23; W@2.24; L@1.81; W@2.96; W@2.22. Wealth 0.934 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3900110577905575}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.44 (win pays 3.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.23; W@2.24; L@1.81; W@2.96; W@2.22; L@2.70. Wealth 0.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24590105157156625}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.71 (win pays 0.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; L@1.81; W@2.96; W@2.22; L@2.70; W@4.44. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49970763229642756}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.81; W@2.96; W@2.22; L@2.70; W@4.44; L@1.71. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6044245281299192}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.96; W@2.22; L@2.70; W@4.44; L@1.71; L@1.45. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5535758362656663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.22; L@2.70; W@4.44; L@1.71; L@1.45; W@1.82. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4676728886522813}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.30 (win pays 2.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.70; W@4.44; L@1.71; L@1.45; W@1.82; W@2.31. Wealth 1.108 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3454158071069767}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.44; L@1.71; L@1.45; W@1.82; W@2.31; W@3.30. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7946708401279019}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.37 (win pays 4.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.71; L@1.45; W@1.82; W@2.31; W@3.30; W@1.12. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18149371917031776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.83 (win pays 1.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.82; W@2.31; W@3.30; W@1.12; W@5.37. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3362546258006013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; W@2.31; W@3.30; W@1.12; W@5.37; W@2.83. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3013152396429374}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; W@3.30; W@1.12; W@5.37; W@2.83; W@3.27. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8270785427633973}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.21 (win pays 3.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.30; W@1.12; W@5.37; W@2.83; W@3.27; W@1.21. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21332323637137202}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; W@5.37; W@2.83; W@3.27; W@1.21; L@4.21. Wealth 1.236 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5810712303651483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.37; W@2.83; W@3.27; W@1.21; L@4.21; W@1.85. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5568875333408021}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.38 (win pays 4.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.83; W@3.27; W@1.21; L@4.21; W@1.85; L@1.53. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21283127144411798}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.27; W@1.21; L@4.21; W@1.85; L@1.53; W@5.38. Wealth 1.635 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4259294964533974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; L@4.21; W@1.85; L@1.53; W@5.38; L@2.24. Wealth 1.635 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3768092661720829}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.21; W@1.85; L@1.53; W@5.38; L@2.24; L@2.28. Wealth 1.635 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6815249316097665}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.85; L@1.53; W@5.38; L@2.24; L@2.28; W@1.53. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7090604205583653}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@5.38; L@2.24; L@2.28; W@1.53; W@1.30. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6716309131079229}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.38; L@2.24; L@2.28; W@1.53; W@1.30; W@1.70. Wealth 1.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5699902727345214}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.24; L@2.28; W@1.53; W@1.30; W@1.70; W@1.64. Wealth 1.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4836089321135164}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.28; W@1.53; W@1.30; W@1.70; W@1.64; L@1.97. Wealth 1.962 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7153345374987145}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@1.30; W@1.70; W@1.64; L@1.97; W@1.56. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5492533458045238}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.61 (win pays 3.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.70; W@1.64; L@1.97; W@1.56; L@1.77. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.202120084091665}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; W@1.64; L@1.97; W@1.56; L@1.77; L@4.61. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36753099455474403}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.29 (win pays 2.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@1.97; W@1.56; L@1.77; L@4.61; W@2.44. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32076736742594325}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@1.56; L@1.77; L@4.61; W@2.44; W@3.29. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8058100862672342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@1.77; L@4.61; W@2.44; W@3.29; W@1.20. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7316414493488875}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; L@4.61; W@2.44; W@3.29; W@1.20; W@1.17. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7470608184660528}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.91 (win pays 1.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.61; W@2.44; W@3.29; W@1.20; W@1.17; W@1.29. Wealth 2.184 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3939536752333598}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.38 (win pays 2.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.44; W@3.29; W@1.20; W@1.17; W@1.29; L@2.91. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2989894041970913}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.94 (win pays 3.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.29; W@1.20; W@1.17; W@1.29; L@2.91; L@3.38. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21648892090277483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@1.17; W@1.29; L@2.91; L@3.38; L@4.94. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47688853254504837}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.16 (win pays 0.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; W@1.29; L@2.91; L@3.38; L@4.94; L@1.91. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8049348729760173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; L@2.91; L@3.38; L@4.94; L@1.91; W@1.16. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7265626690484295}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.91; L@3.38; L@4.94; L@1.91; W@1.16; W@1.34. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3272778750592731}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.38; L@4.94; L@1.91; W@1.16; W@1.34; L@3.09. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5091453405269157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.94; L@1.91; W@1.16; W@1.34; L@3.09; W@1.77. Wealth 1.965 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7848379646115234}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.25 (win pays 2.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; W@1.16; W@1.34; L@3.09; W@1.77; W@1.41. Wealth 2.207 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31051005580029084}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.16; W@1.34; L@3.09; W@1.77; W@1.41; W@3.25. Wealth 2.207 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.673977273257692}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; L@3.09; W@1.77; W@1.41; W@3.25; W@1.48. Wealth 2.207 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7038220555863417}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.83 (win pays 3.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@1.77; W@1.41; W@3.25; W@1.48; W@1.38. Wealth 2.207 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23228597036826076}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.61 (win pays 0.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; W@1.41; W@3.25; W@1.48; W@1.38; L@4.83. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5469131923424422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@3.25; W@1.48; W@1.38; L@4.83; W@1.61. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5220772532245579}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.25; W@1.48; W@1.38; L@4.83; W@1.61; W@1.91. Wealth 2.097 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6266813041575389}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; W@1.38; L@4.83; W@1.61; W@1.91; W@1.81. Wealth 2.353 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25106181176160636}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; L@4.83; W@1.61; W@1.91; W@1.81; L@3.69. Wealth 2.353 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3573275295072272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.90 (win pays 2.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.17 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.83; W@1.61; W@1.91; W@1.81; L@3.69; W@2.43. Wealth 2.353 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2903607968421713}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.61; W@1.91; W@1.81; L@3.69; W@2.43; W@3.90. Wealth 2.694 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8161607684299318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.91; W@1.81; L@3.69; W@2.43; W@3.90; W@1.26. Wealth 2.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6008387213455427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.91 (win pays 3.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; L@3.69; W@2.43; W@3.90; W@1.26; L@1.66. Wealth 2.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17714514806399967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@2.43; W@3.90; W@1.26; L@1.66; L@4.91. Wealth 2.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7204940636049744}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.43; W@3.90; W@1.26; L@1.66; L@4.91; W@1.26. Wealth 2.764 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5216795591738453}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.90; W@1.26; L@1.66; L@4.91; W@1.26; W@2.16. Wealth 3.083 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47396667408207926}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.98 (win pays 3.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; L@1.66; L@4.91; W@1.26; W@2.16; L@1.91. Wealth 3.083 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.214296386739873}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.73 (win pays 2.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.66; L@4.91; W@1.26; W@2.16; L@1.91; L@4.98. Wealth 3.083 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.26734185169045}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.91; W@1.26; W@2.16; L@1.91; L@4.98; W@3.73. Wealth 3.083 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21851471155986116}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@2.16; L@1.91; L@4.98; W@3.73; L@4.71. Wealth 3.083 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6419461440307107}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.12 (win pays 4.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; L@1.91; L@4.98; W@3.73; L@4.71; W@1.64. Wealth 3.281 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21914515655848765}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.91; L@4.98; W@3.73; L@4.71; W@1.64; L@5.12. Wealth 3.117 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5960786379455495}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.98 (win pays 0.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.98; W@3.73; L@4.71; W@1.64; L@5.12; L@1.88. Wealth 2.649 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5795084497017974}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.73; L@4.71; W@1.64; L@5.12; L@1.88; L@1.98. Wealth 2.252 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4812920946676176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.71; W@1.64; L@5.12; L@1.88; L@1.98; W@1.77. Wealth 2.252 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6674666307263022}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@5.12; L@1.88; L@1.98; W@1.77; W@1.72. Wealth 2.575 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3907029815850206}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.80 (win pays 1.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.12; L@1.88; L@1.98; W@1.77; W@1.72; L@2.44. Wealth 2.575 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3450833021388845}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; L@1.98; W@1.77; W@1.72; L@2.44; W@2.80. Wealth 2.575 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6094286124507726}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.98; W@1.77; W@1.72; L@2.44; W@2.80; L@1.79. Wealth 2.317 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8241690876092486}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; W@1.72; L@2.44; W@2.80; L@1.79; W@1.32. Wealth 2.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8272256280435852}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@2.44; W@2.80; L@1.79; W@1.32; L@1.13. Wealth 2.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7073587169696574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.49 (win pays 1.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.44; W@2.80; L@1.79; W@1.32; L@1.13; W@1.25. Wealth 2.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39339927034852684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.80; L@1.79; W@1.32; L@1.13; W@1.25; L@2.49. Wealth 2.537 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6712278272974664}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.79; W@1.32; L@1.13; W@1.25; L@2.49; W@1.58. Wealth 2.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7294472943548582}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; L@1.13; W@1.25; L@2.49; W@1.58; W@1.24. Wealth 2.685 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4922614699050334}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.16 (win pays 4.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.13; W@1.25; L@2.49; W@1.58; W@1.24; W@2.31. Wealth 3.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16810623917824244}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@2.49; W@1.58; W@1.24; W@2.31; L@5.16. Wealth 3.036 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3330624327795946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.87 (win pays 4.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19329648472552416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.59 (win pays 2.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3128736326885011}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@3.59. Wealth 1.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7389559245785761}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@3.59; W@1.45. Wealth 1.145 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7797948137895455}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@3.59; W@1.45; W@1.44. Wealth 1.296 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.437754796148328}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@3.59; W@1.45; W@1.44; L@2.37. Wealth 1.231 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5524229288153956}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.31 (win pays 1.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; W@3.59; W@1.45; W@1.44; L@2.37; L@1.94. Wealth 1.108 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4748860461153013}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.59; W@1.45; W@1.44; L@2.37; L@1.94; W@2.31. Wealth 1.181 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6846174859913969}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.89 (win pays 2.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.44; L@2.37; L@1.94; W@2.31; L@1.25. Wealth 1.181 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2845914726690978}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.53 (win pays 4.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; L@2.37; L@1.94; W@2.31; L@1.25; L@3.89. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16634363325417215}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.98 (win pays 2.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.37; L@1.94; W@2.31; L@1.25; L@3.89; L@5.53. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2521078734022096}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.91 (win pays 0.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.94; W@2.31; L@1.25; L@3.89; L@5.53; W@3.98. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5748764152557982}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.33 (win pays 0.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.31; L@1.25; L@3.89; L@5.53; W@3.98; W@1.91. Wealth 1.224 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7831120059258502}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; L@3.89; L@5.53; W@3.98; W@1.91; W@1.33. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6402869981522036}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 5.38 (win pays 4.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.89; L@5.53; W@3.98; W@1.91; W@1.33; W@1.40. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17074426488691996}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.53; W@3.98; W@1.91; W@1.33; W@1.40; L@5.38. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6457890702208833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.40 (win pays 3.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.98; W@1.91; W@1.33; W@1.40; L@5.38; W@1.57. Wealth 1.264 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24737585012890737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.59 (win pays 0.59x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.91; W@1.33; W@1.40; L@5.38; W@1.57; L@4.40. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6321164443380102}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.33; W@1.40; L@5.38; W@1.57; L@4.40; W@1.59. Wealth 1.201 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7109153822072087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.57 (win pays 1.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@5.38; W@1.57; L@4.40; W@1.59; W@1.58. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3595463358827353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.38; W@1.57; L@4.40; W@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.57. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4336809455932523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.90 (win pays 0.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@4.40; W@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.57; W@2.22. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45612409900580064}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.92 (win pays 1.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.40; W@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.57; W@2.22; L@1.90. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32176302683089464}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.59; W@1.58; W@2.57; W@2.22; L@1.90; L@2.92. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8440436277884006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@2.57; W@2.22; L@1.90; L@2.92; W@1.04. Wealth 1.341 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6865009809384016}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.72 (win pays 3.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.57; W@2.22; L@1.90; L@2.92; W@1.04; W@1.51. Wealth 1.375 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2370296715713284}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.46 (win pays 4.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.22; L@1.90; L@2.92; W@1.04; W@1.51; L@4.72. Wealth 1.307 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20452253415426264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.90; L@2.92; W@1.04; W@1.51; L@4.72; L@5.46. Wealth 1.241 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6043518632821435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.87 (win pays 4.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.92; W@1.04; W@1.51; L@4.72; L@5.46; W@1.85. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18273599730285148}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; W@1.51; L@4.72; L@5.46; W@1.85; L@5.87. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6115424749203947}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.66 (win pays 0.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@4.72; L@5.46; W@1.85; L@5.87; L@1.56. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5295983245935038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.72; L@5.46; W@1.85; L@5.87; L@1.56; W@1.66. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7064611571741006}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.46; W@1.85; L@5.87; L@1.56; W@1.66; L@1.23. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6741258634450046}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.85; L@5.87; L@1.56; W@1.66; L@1.23; W@1.38. Wealth 1.399 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8457584001982864}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.78 (win pays 3.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.87; L@1.56; W@1.66; L@1.23; W@1.38; W@1.28. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1988795809291318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@1.66; L@1.23; W@1.38; W@1.28; W@4.78. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4903486107140256}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.66; L@1.23; W@1.38; W@1.28; W@4.78; W@1.94. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43713195790428905}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.28 (win pays 1.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.23; W@1.38; W@1.28; W@4.78; W@1.94; L@2.36. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4366556212043027}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.71 (win pays 2.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.28; W@4.78; W@1.94; L@2.36; L@2.28. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2670173438620521}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.20 (win pays 1.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.28; W@4.78; W@1.94; L@2.36; L@2.28; L@3.71. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4137813897136734}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.78; W@1.94; L@2.36; L@2.28; L@3.71; L@2.20. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6595189680934307}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.26 (win pays 2.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; L@2.36; L@2.28; L@3.71; L@2.20; W@1.31. Wealth 1.517 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.349044540022172}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.99 (win pays 1.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@2.28; L@3.71; L@2.20; W@1.31; L@3.26. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33895965911516657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.38 (win pays 4.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.28; L@3.71; L@2.20; W@1.31; L@3.26; L@2.99. Wealth 1.441 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20626172065703646}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.12 (win pays 2.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.71; L@2.20; W@1.31; L@3.26; L@2.99; W@5.38. Wealth 1.757 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3573486205677975}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.20; W@1.31; L@3.26; L@2.99; W@5.38; L@3.12. Wealth 1.669 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8408112093765419}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.50 (win pays 0.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; L@3.26; L@2.99; W@5.38; L@3.12; W@1.06. Wealth 1.669 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5769541993745234}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.26; L@2.99; W@5.38; L@3.12; W@1.06; W@1.50. Wealth 1.669 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7222456366260339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.99; W@5.38; L@3.12; W@1.06; W@1.50; W@1.32. Wealth 1.669 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7399100757815298}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.38; L@3.12; W@1.06; W@1.50; W@1.32; W@1.38. Wealth 1.701 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5416513280878613}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.12; W@1.06; W@1.50; W@1.32; W@1.38; W@1.79. Wealth 1.701 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7221656864983999}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.77 (win pays 2.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.19 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; W@1.50; W@1.32; W@1.38; W@1.79; W@1.57. Wealth 1.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2846644968934701}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.50; W@1.32; W@1.38; W@1.79; W@1.57; L@3.77. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4011471366703282}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.38; W@1.79; W@1.57; L@3.77; L@2.25. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.36958877577271865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.79; W@1.57; L@3.77; L@2.25; W@2.71. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.641075272506073}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.51 (win pays 4.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@1.57; L@3.77; L@2.25; W@2.71; L@1.53. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18353741745970795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.69 (win pays 2.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.05 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@3.77; L@2.25; W@2.71; L@1.53; L@5.51. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27009263831040176}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.77; L@2.25; W@2.71; L@1.53; L@5.51; L@3.69. Wealth 1.801 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6919245332477906}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.90 (win pays 3.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.06 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@2.71; L@1.53; L@5.51; L@3.69; W@1.56. Wealth 1.951 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1771855234191705}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.33 (win pays 1.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.71; L@1.53; L@5.51; L@3.69; W@1.56; L@4.90. Wealth 1.951 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.47541125027087416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.04 (win pays 0.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; L@5.51; L@3.69; W@1.56; L@4.90; W@2.33. Wealth 2.211 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8155251366519877}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.51; L@3.69; W@1.56; L@4.90; W@2.33; W@1.04. Wealth 2.211 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8081031419194113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.23 (win pays 0.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.69; W@1.56; L@4.90; W@2.33; W@1.04; W@1.30. Wealth 2.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7983227661268201}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.30 (win pays 0.30x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@4.90; W@2.33; W@1.04; W@1.30; W@1.23. Wealth 2.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7465667709297145}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.07 (win pays 2.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.90; W@2.33; W@1.04; W@1.30; W@1.23; W@1.30. Wealth 2.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.29568559854587545}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.33; W@1.04; W@1.30; W@1.23; W@1.30; L@3.07. Wealth 2.311 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7633157520059721}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.36 (win pays 1.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.04; W@1.30; W@1.23; W@1.30; L@3.07; W@1.40. Wealth 2.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39223684829866856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.63 (win pays 1.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; W@1.23; W@1.30; L@3.07; W@1.40; L@2.36. Wealth 2.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3541145209234512}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.58 (win pays 1.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.23; W@1.30; L@3.07; W@1.40; L@2.36; L@2.63. Wealth 2.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3928001145384339}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.13 (win pays 1.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.30; L@3.07; W@1.40; L@2.36; L@2.63; L@2.58. Wealth 2.497 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5164497287503361}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.07; W@1.40; L@2.36; L@2.63; L@2.58; L@2.13. Wealth 2.248 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7327555496459479}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.40; L@2.36; L@2.63; L@2.58; L@2.13; W@1.46. Wealth 2.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.701611315847924}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.26 (win pays 0.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.36; L@2.63; L@2.58; L@2.13; W@1.46; W@1.38. Wealth 2.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7268562424181481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.63; L@2.58; L@2.13; W@1.46; W@1.38; W@1.26. Wealth 2.403 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.511645530266263}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.58; L@2.13; W@1.46; W@1.38; W@1.26; W@2.22. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5146307186758158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.13; W@1.46; W@1.38; W@1.26; W@2.22; L@1.70. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.504437197782901}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; W@1.38; W@1.26; W@2.22; L@1.70; W@1.84. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40812467362249594}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.26; W@2.22; L@1.70; W@1.84; W@2.22. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.745557524835324}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.26; W@2.22; L@1.70; W@1.84; W@2.22; L@1.32. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6130171756784153}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.24 (win pays 1.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.22; L@1.70; W@1.84; W@2.22; L@1.32; L@1.63. Wealth 2.695 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5003164270296477}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.67 (win pays 0.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; W@1.84; W@2.22; L@1.32; L@1.63; W@2.24. Wealth 3.028 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6499079660224493}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.40 (win pays 4.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.84; W@2.22; L@1.32; L@1.63; W@2.24; W@1.67. Wealth 3.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17606729659943474}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.21 (win pays 1.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.22; L@1.32; L@1.63; W@2.24; W@1.67; L@5.40. Wealth 3.333 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4968473705639975}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.67 (win pays 3.67x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.32; L@1.63; W@2.24; W@1.67; L@5.40; L@2.21. Wealth 3.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18573074659868938}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.63; W@2.24; W@1.67; L@5.40; L@2.21; L@4.67. Wealth 3.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5450813450691816}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.24; W@1.67; L@5.40; L@2.21; L@4.67; L@1.70. Wealth 3.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.662274595183041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.88 (win pays 3.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.67; L@5.40; L@2.21; L@4.67; L@1.70; W@1.39. Wealth 3.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20927619276742157}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.40; L@2.21; L@4.67; L@1.70; W@1.39; L@4.88. Wealth 3.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43101814663542326}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.03 (win pays 1.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.21; L@4.67; L@1.70; W@1.39; L@4.88; L@2.41. Wealth 2.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49505184956056747}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.85 (win pays 4.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.67; L@1.70; W@1.39; L@4.88; L@2.41; L@2.03. Wealth 2.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16677164658747812}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; W@1.39; L@4.88; L@2.41; L@2.03; L@5.85. Wealth 2.850 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7409909281333936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.44 (win pays 0.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.39; L@4.88; L@2.41; L@2.03; L@5.85; W@1.45. Wealth 3.041 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6223500201042941}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.17 (win pays 0.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.88; L@2.41; L@2.03; L@5.85; W@1.45; W@1.44. Wealth 3.041 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7620184663254884}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.41; L@2.03; L@5.85; W@1.45; W@1.44; W@1.17. Wealth 3.041 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5849545267883185}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.03; L@5.85; W@1.45; W@1.44; W@1.17; L@1.76. Wealth 2.889 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.457172162829556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.85; W@1.45; W@1.44; W@1.17; L@1.76; L@1.99. Wealth 2.889 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43983959610812606}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@1.44; W@1.17; L@1.76; L@1.99; L@2.04. Wealth 2.889 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.478848107086848}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.44; W@1.17; L@1.76; L@1.99; L@2.04; L@2.08. Wealth 2.889 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4593171500643086}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.17; L@1.76; L@1.99; L@2.04; L@2.08; W@2.39. Wealth 3.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7471116073009425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.84 (win pays 0.84x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; L@1.99; L@2.04; L@2.08; W@2.39; W@1.22. Wealth 3.089 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5134586195073415}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5100331943967473}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.562489369235141}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.75. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6640637539384886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.27 (win pays 0.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.75; W@1.72. Wealth 1.204 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6726713504200265}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.05 (win pays 2.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.75; W@1.72; W@1.27. Wealth 1.204 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3655221286885634}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.75; W@1.72; W@1.27; L@3.05. Wealth 1.144 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7911485235583663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; L@1.75; W@1.72; W@1.27; L@3.05; W@1.13. Wealth 1.144 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6305737207319543}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.37 (win pays 1.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.75; W@1.72; W@1.27; L@3.05; W@1.13; W@1.58. Wealth 1.144 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4687062589209784}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; W@1.27; L@3.05; W@1.13; W@1.58; W@2.37. Wealth 1.301 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4884609468067972}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.27; L@3.05; W@1.13; W@1.58; W@2.37; L@1.77. Wealth 1.301 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7139663573825511}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.05; W@1.13; W@1.58; W@2.37; L@1.77; W@1.22. Wealth 1.301 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6170276227241659}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@1.58; W@2.37; L@1.77; W@1.22; L@1.54. Wealth 1.301 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5923333396815624}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@2.37; L@1.77; W@1.22; L@1.54; W@1.69. Wealth 1.301 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7736681565774165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.37; L@1.77; W@1.22; L@1.54; W@1.69; W@1.43. Wealth 1.412 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6078630584039767}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.77; W@1.22; L@1.54; W@1.69; W@1.43; W@1.56. Wealth 1.412 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7407604982962277}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@1.54; W@1.69; W@1.43; W@1.56; W@1.18. Wealth 1.412 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3821560348017158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.81 (win pays 1.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@1.69; W@1.43; W@1.56; W@1.18; L@2.66. Wealth 1.412 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37588227709391386}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.09 (win pays 0.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; W@1.43; W@1.56; W@1.18; L@2.66; W@2.81. Wealth 1.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8075494229284007}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@1.56; W@1.18; L@2.66; W@2.81; L@1.09. Wealth 1.539 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41219166316766565}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.47 (win pays 2.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@1.18; L@2.66; W@2.81; L@1.09; L@2.61. Wealth 1.463 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2656529019422348}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.27 (win pays 2.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.18; L@2.66; W@2.81; L@1.09; L@2.61; L@3.47. Wealth 1.463 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2657785955115104}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; W@2.81; L@1.09; L@2.61; L@3.47; L@3.27. Wealth 1.463 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5470012840793933}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.81; L@1.09; L@2.61; L@3.47; L@3.27; W@1.73. Wealth 1.463 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6873424007555663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.09; L@2.61; L@3.47; L@3.27; W@1.73; W@1.57. Wealth 1.587 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.547248090487795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.61; L@3.47; L@3.27; W@1.73; W@1.57; W@1.56. Wealth 1.587 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48517287168190937}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.14 (win pays 0.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.47; L@3.27; W@1.73; W@1.57; W@1.56; L@2.34. Wealth 1.429 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7888710671963038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.27; W@1.73; W@1.57; W@1.56; L@2.34; W@1.14. Wealth 1.429 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5404279105237112}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; W@1.57; W@1.56; L@2.34; W@1.14; L@1.93. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5000474905730954}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; W@1.56; L@2.34; W@1.14; L@1.93; W@1.72. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.650280765426892}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@2.34; W@1.14; L@1.93; W@1.72; L@1.47. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4088296211251783}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.34; W@1.14; L@1.93; W@1.72; L@1.47; L@2.46. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3215850361777362}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.54 (win pays 3.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.14; L@1.93; W@1.72; L@1.47; L@2.46; W@2.90. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23323389556272894}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.93; W@1.72; L@1.47; L@2.46; W@2.90; L@4.54. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7399396237579302}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.72; L@1.47; L@2.46; W@2.90; L@4.54; W@1.15. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5214001612345465}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.45 (win pays 3.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.47; L@2.46; W@2.90; L@4.54; W@1.15; W@1.82. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2406673787091331}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.39 (win pays 0.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; W@2.90; L@4.54; W@1.15; W@1.82; W@4.45. Wealth 1.357 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8038311981560181}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.90; L@4.54; W@1.15; W@1.82; W@4.45; L@1.39. Wealth 0.950 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.538628753376893}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.54; W@1.15; W@1.82; W@4.45; L@1.39; W@1.99. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38386831115041314}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.15; W@1.82; W@4.45; L@1.39; W@1.99; L@2.69. Wealth 0.997 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6627344150383516}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.48 (win pays 1.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; W@4.45; L@1.39; W@1.99; L@2.69; L@1.60. Wealth 0.897 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.420042096100532}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.45; L@1.39; W@1.99; L@2.69; L@1.60; W@2.48. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.605647421739851}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.87 (win pays 1.87x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.39; W@1.99; L@2.69; L@1.60; W@2.48; W@1.49. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3316586764911806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.08 (win pays 0.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.99; L@2.69; L@1.60; W@2.48; W@1.49; L@2.87. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8193298108178942}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.69; L@1.60; W@2.48; W@1.49; L@2.87; L@1.08. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2951484857728158}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.04 (win pays 2.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; W@2.48; W@1.49; L@2.87; L@1.08; L@3.09. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.33605523907487833}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.12 (win pays 0.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.48; W@1.49; L@2.87; L@1.08; L@3.09; L@3.04. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.813415802379175}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.21 (win pays 3.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.08 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@2.87; L@1.08; L@3.09; L@3.04; W@1.12. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20903595005799788}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.25 (win pays 3.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.87; L@1.08; L@3.09; L@3.04; W@1.12; L@4.21. Wealth 0.964 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2645142156792478}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.58 (win pays 3.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.08; L@3.09; L@3.04; W@1.12; L@4.21; L@4.25. Wealth 0.916 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2389493281722254}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@3.04; W@1.12; L@4.21; L@4.25; L@4.58. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4580692483731337}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.13 (win pays 2.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.11 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.04; W@1.12; L@4.21; L@4.25; L@4.58; L@2.05. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3195805478026542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.12; L@4.21; L@4.25; L@4.58; L@2.05; W@3.13. Wealth 0.870 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7264693038627035}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.19 (win pays 1.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.21; L@4.25; L@4.58; L@2.05; W@3.13; L@1.54. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4352411285960832}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.71 (win pays 3.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.25; L@4.58; L@2.05; W@3.13; L@1.54; W@2.19. Wealth 0.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23275873057636484}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.58; L@2.05; W@3.13; L@1.54; W@2.19; W@4.71. Wealth 0.825 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4384777879817552}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; W@3.13; L@1.54; W@2.19; W@4.71; L@2.26. Wealth 0.825 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7198583428837948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.71 (win pays 1.71x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.13; L@1.54; W@2.19; W@4.71; L@2.26; W@1.24. Wealth 0.825 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3869696323157329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.54; W@2.19; W@4.71; L@2.26; W@1.24; W@2.71. Wealth 0.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6000162922038876}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.49 (win pays 2.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.19; W@4.71; L@2.26; W@1.24; W@2.71; W@1.56. Wealth 0.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2760169696173925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.58 (win pays 0.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.71; L@2.26; W@1.24; W@2.71; W@1.56; L@3.49. Wealth 0.896 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.710385107605577}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.26; W@1.24; W@2.71; W@1.56; L@3.49; W@1.58. Wealth 0.999 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.699840780235886}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.83 (win pays 2.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.24 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; W@2.71; W@1.56; L@3.49; W@1.58; W@1.62. Wealth 1.123 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28177104476675696}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 7.49 (win pays 6.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.71; W@1.56; L@3.49; W@1.58; W@1.62; L@3.83. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15049282578351897}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.11 (win pays 0.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@3.49; W@1.58; W@1.62; L@3.83; L@7.49. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8426190020543899}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.49; W@1.58; W@1.62; L@3.83; L@7.49; W@1.11. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7199713546700065}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.58; W@1.62; L@3.83; L@7.49; W@1.11; W@1.29. Wealth 1.067 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8298146412398041}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@3.83; L@7.49; W@1.11; W@1.29; W@1.34. Wealth 1.175 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6477281914922409}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.83; L@7.49; W@1.11; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.56. Wealth 1.175 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8250717455208715}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.03 (win pays 2.03x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@7.49; W@1.11; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.56; W@1.25. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3412920766848177}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.22 (win pays 1.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.11; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.56; W@1.25; W@3.03. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4204105221771737}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.56; W@1.25; W@3.03; L@2.22. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7719733750892649}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.56; W@1.25; W@3.03; L@2.22; W@1.25. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.745998947582736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@1.25; W@3.03; L@2.22; W@1.25; W@1.34. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5187723454292138}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.16 (win pays 1.16x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@3.03; L@2.22; W@1.25; W@1.34; W@1.97. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.45209256990229274}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.03; L@2.22; W@1.25; W@1.34; W@1.97; W@2.16. Wealth 1.220 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7990676567319732}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.22; W@1.25; W@1.34; W@1.97; W@2.16; W@1.32. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44130150999915563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; W@1.34; W@1.97; W@2.16; W@1.32; W@2.12. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5512129999153661}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.97; W@2.16; W@1.32; W@2.12; L@1.62. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6124270035407663}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.97; W@2.16; W@1.32; W@2.12; L@1.62; W@1.57. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3400882444297614}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.16; W@1.32; W@2.12; L@1.62; W@1.57; L@3.09. Wealth 1.278 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6805941386019769}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@2.12; L@1.62; W@1.57; L@3.09; W@1.56. Wealth 1.349 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8043047336440856}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.12; L@1.62; W@1.57; L@3.09; W@1.56; L@1.38. Wealth 0.944 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.803957319783871}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; W@1.57; L@3.09; W@1.56; L@1.38; W@1.38. Wealth 1.052 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6109201937177303}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@3.09; W@1.56; L@1.38; W@1.38; W@1.82. Wealth 1.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6399762009727702}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.19 (win pays 2.19x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@1.56; L@1.38; W@1.38; W@1.82; L@1.46. Wealth 1.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.34639484373211726}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@1.38; W@1.38; W@1.82; L@1.46; L@3.19. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6257913800451271}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.49 (win pays 3.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.38; W@1.38; W@1.82; L@1.46; L@3.19; W@1.47. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20506597358549264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.82; L@1.46; L@3.19; W@1.47; W@4.49. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.32315127994509574}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.86 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@1.46; L@3.19; W@1.47; W@4.49; L@2.66. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7309491617981628}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.46; L@3.19; W@1.47; W@4.49; L@2.66; W@1.35. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6053473083762015}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.15 (win pays 0.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.19; W@1.47; W@4.49; L@2.66; W@1.35; W@1.64. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7965619386660858}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.83 (win pays 2.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@4.49; L@2.66; W@1.35; W@1.64; L@1.15. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2702582108582665}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.92 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.49; L@2.66; W@1.35; W@1.64; L@1.15; L@3.83. Wealth 1.122 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8381925916446479}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.21 (win pays 0.21x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; W@1.35; W@1.64; L@1.15; L@3.83; W@1.34. Wealth 1.274 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.714230735556258}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.73 (win pays 4.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; W@1.64; L@1.15; L@3.83; W@1.34; W@1.21. Wealth 1.274 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18919249855887948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 3.53 (win pays 2.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@1.15; L@3.83; W@1.34; W@1.21; L@5.73. Wealth 1.274 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2739031728426736}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.15; L@3.83; W@1.34; W@1.21; L@5.73; L@3.53. Wealth 1.274 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5877985960944178}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.82 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.83; W@1.34; W@1.21; L@5.73; L@3.53; W@1.54. Wealth 1.274 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5978101157237363}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.34 (win pays 1.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.21; L@5.73; L@3.53; W@1.54; W@1.77. Wealth 1.373 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39945474849100765}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.91 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.21; L@5.73; L@3.53; W@1.54; W@1.77; W@2.34. Wealth 1.373 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6483296206073481}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6382203345295724}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.26 (win pays 3.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.23 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23494875845113422}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@4.26. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7807827780621451}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@4.26; W@1.37. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7396591874733831}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@4.26; W@1.37; W@1.34. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6875561134004674}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.70 (win pays 2.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@4.26; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.29. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2564434042982423}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.63 (win pays 2.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.56; W@4.26; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.29; W@3.70. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.25802292355964396}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.26; W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.29; W@3.70; L@3.63. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7305582047899563}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.34; W@1.29; W@3.70; L@3.63; W@1.34. Wealth 1.075 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5991869690411353}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.51 (win pays 0.51x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.29; W@3.70; L@3.63; W@1.34; W@1.73. Wealth 1.114 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6757611973026776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.39 (win pays 2.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@3.70; L@3.63; W@1.34; W@1.73; W@1.51. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2954054278753329}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.35 (win pays 0.35x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.70; L@3.63; W@1.34; W@1.73; W@1.51; L@3.39. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6333873244528542}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.63; W@1.34; W@1.73; W@1.51; L@3.39; W@1.35. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4825408896443141}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.46 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.73; W@1.51; L@3.39; W@1.35; L@2.02. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3373779356886061}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.07 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.73; W@1.51; L@3.39; W@1.35; L@2.02; L@2.97. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3265245885114404}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.51; L@3.39; W@1.35; L@2.02; L@2.97; L@3.09. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5730073316409435}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.29 (win pays 0.29x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.39; W@1.35; L@2.02; L@2.97; L@3.09; W@1.53. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7723419027415025}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.35; L@2.02; L@2.97; L@3.09; W@1.53; W@1.29. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6347161425200082}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.31 (win pays 0.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; L@2.97; L@3.09; W@1.53; W@1.29; W@1.34. Wealth 1.142 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8382809510390153}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.39 (win pays 1.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.97; L@3.09; W@1.53; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.31. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40220203377600794}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.94 (win pays 0.94x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; W@1.53; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.31; W@2.39. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4500161378821165}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.77 (win pays 0.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.31; W@2.39; W@1.94. Wealth 1.247 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6099136094420675}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.52 (win pays 5.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.29; W@1.34; W@1.31; W@2.39; W@1.94; W@1.77. Wealth 1.343 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.17056460093499615}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.34; W@1.31; W@2.39; W@1.94; W@1.77; L@6.52. Wealth 1.343 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5802704531330212}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.31; W@2.39; W@1.94; W@1.77; L@6.52; L@1.92. Wealth 1.209 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6798900577872949}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.98 (win pays 1.98x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.39; W@1.94; W@1.77; L@6.52; L@1.92; W@1.45. Wealth 1.209 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3295736375451946}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.04 (win pays 1.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.94; W@1.77; L@6.52; L@1.92; W@1.45; W@2.98. Wealth 1.209 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5624244186693427}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.46 (win pays 0.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.77; L@6.52; L@1.92; W@1.45; W@2.98; W@2.04. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.69055918364556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 6.13 (win pays 5.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.52; L@1.92; W@1.45; W@2.98; W@2.04; W@1.46. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16047403186164164}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.92; W@1.45; W@2.98; W@2.04; W@1.46; L@6.13. Wealth 1.397 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6041687731914986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.23 (win pays 3.23x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.45; W@2.98; W@2.04; W@1.46; L@6.13; W@1.70. Wealth 1.446 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2628026976726977}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.26 (win pays 4.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.98; W@2.04; W@1.46; L@6.13; W@1.70; L@4.23. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16850164465180667}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.71 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.04; W@1.46; L@6.13; W@1.70; L@4.23; W@5.26. Wealth 1.374 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6512043282962593}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.61 (win pays 1.61x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.46; L@6.13; W@1.70; L@4.23; W@5.26; W@1.75. Wealth 1.579 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3941706935996025}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.13; W@1.70; L@4.23; W@5.26; W@1.75; W@2.61. Wealth 1.579 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7762440173959775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.27 (win pays 1.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.70 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.70; L@4.23; W@5.26; W@1.75; W@2.61; W@1.48. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.44285514339314647}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.23; W@5.26; W@1.75; W@2.61; W@1.48; L@2.27. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23262578261109698}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.31 (win pays 4.31x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.26; W@1.75; W@2.61; W@1.48; L@2.27; L@4.08. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2041632844532772}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; W@2.61; W@1.48; L@2.27; L@4.08; L@5.31. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4382982064169809}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.61; W@1.48; L@2.27; L@4.08; L@5.31; W@2.00. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6211027118075608}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.18 (win pays 3.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@2.27; L@4.08; L@5.31; W@2.00; W@1.43. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22309049210411128}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.27; L@4.08; L@5.31; W@2.00; W@1.43; L@4.18. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6006074566562781}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.14 (win pays 4.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; L@5.31; W@2.00; W@1.43; L@4.18; W@1.56. Wealth 1.806 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22104002440907228}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.25 (win pays 1.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.37 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.31; W@2.00; W@1.43; L@4.18; W@1.56; L@5.14. Wealth 1.716 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5051480417525036}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; W@1.43; L@4.18; W@1.56; L@5.14; L@2.25. Wealth 1.544 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5419625983894802}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@4.18; W@1.56; L@5.14; L@2.25; W@1.88. Wealth 1.544 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6505553186898425}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.52 (win pays 0.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.18; W@1.56; L@5.14; L@2.25; W@1.88; W@1.64. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6316853307724637}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.52 (win pays 2.52x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.34 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; L@5.14; L@2.25; W@1.88; W@1.64; L@1.52. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28297464880378964}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.69 (win pays 0.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.14; L@2.25; W@1.88; W@1.64; L@1.52; L@3.52. Wealth 1.642 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6569535075397472}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.39 (win pays 4.39x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.16 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.25; W@1.88; W@1.64; L@1.52; L@3.52; W@1.69. Wealth 1.812 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19959806829563959}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.43 (win pays 1.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; W@1.64; L@1.52; L@3.52; W@1.69; L@5.39. Wealth 1.812 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4545647836532847}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.64; L@1.52; L@3.52; W@1.69; L@5.39; L@2.43. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3608042375237264}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.06 (win pays 0.06x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.52; L@3.52; W@1.69; L@5.39; L@2.43; W@2.69. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8074437622357619}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.52; W@1.69; L@5.39; L@2.43; W@2.69; W@1.06. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28623896189536124}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.64 (win pays 0.64x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.74 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.69; L@5.39; L@2.43; W@2.69; W@1.06; L@3.08. Wealth 1.721 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6963908185045143}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.93 (win pays 0.93x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.39; L@2.43; W@2.69; W@1.06; L@3.08; L@1.64. Wealth 1.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5619596510861642}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.01 (win pays 1.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.43; W@2.69; W@1.06; L@3.08; L@1.64; L@1.93. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.49740644100430087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.69; W@1.06; L@3.08; L@1.64; L@1.93; W@2.01. Wealth 1.239 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6766336622317796}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.24 (win pays 0.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.87 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.06; L@3.08; L@1.64; L@1.93; W@2.01; W@1.63. Wealth 1.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7675356792741291}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.08; L@1.64; L@1.93; W@2.01; W@1.63; W@1.24. Wealth 1.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.37115424678776315}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.69 (win pays 1.69x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.64; L@1.93; W@2.01; W@1.63; W@1.24; L@2.44. Wealth 1.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3455000120491664}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.93; W@2.01; W@1.63; W@1.24; L@2.44; W@2.69. Wealth 1.355 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8018309983176614}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.01; W@1.63; W@1.24; L@2.44; W@2.69; W@1.43. Wealth 1.530 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.41151745610907986}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.83 (win pays 1.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.63; W@1.24; L@2.44; W@2.69; W@1.43; W@2.32. Wealth 1.530 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3779182115988083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.78 (win pays 1.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.24; L@2.44; W@2.69; W@1.43; W@2.32; L@2.83. Wealth 1.454 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30601270143954873}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.44; W@2.69; W@1.43; W@2.32; L@2.83; W@2.78. Wealth 1.454 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8343303825851595}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.45 (win pays 0.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.69; W@1.43; W@2.32; L@2.83; W@2.78; W@1.25. Wealth 1.528 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7169268754023311}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.38 (win pays 0.38x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.72 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; W@2.32; L@2.83; W@2.78; W@1.25; L@1.45. Wealth 1.375 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8229091736203629}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.92 (win pays 0.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; L@2.83; W@2.78; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38. Wealth 1.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4436172583327802}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.83; W@2.78; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; W@1.92. Wealth 1.584 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6099641202760023}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.57 (win pays 2.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.78; W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; W@1.92; W@1.88. Wealth 1.792 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.31595305777480087}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.73 (win pays 0.73x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.45; W@1.38; W@1.92; W@1.88; L@3.57. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5442535722519233}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.45; W@1.38; W@1.92; W@1.88; L@3.57; L@1.73. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43843586134679735}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.83 (win pays 1.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.38; W@1.92; W@1.88; L@3.57; L@1.73; W@2.05. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3164604760819584}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.09 (win pays 3.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.20 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.92; W@1.88; L@3.57; L@1.73; W@2.05; W@2.83. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21311024329111775}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.78 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.88; L@3.57; L@1.73; W@2.05; W@2.83; L@4.09. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8005723271243318}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.57; L@1.73; W@2.05; W@2.83; L@4.09; W@1.25. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6777280225917456}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.08 (win pays 3.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.73; W@2.05; W@2.83; L@4.09; W@1.25; L@1.49. Wealth 1.702 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2761827239028973}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.64 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.05; W@2.83; L@4.09; W@1.25; L@1.49; L@4.08. Wealth 1.617 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6739943269003902}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.45 (win pays 1.45x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.83; L@4.09; W@1.25; L@1.49; L@4.08; W@1.65. Wealth 1.774 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.413310593238844}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.09; W@1.25; L@1.49; L@4.08; W@1.65; L@2.45. Wealth 1.774 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5375227214811226}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.17 (win pays 1.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.25; L@1.49; L@4.08; W@1.65; L@2.45; W@1.76. Wealth 1.774 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5283892170877105}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.49; L@4.08; W@1.65; L@2.45; W@1.76; W@2.17. Wealth 1.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3598227656859908}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.09 (win pays 2.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.08; W@1.65; L@2.45; W@1.76; W@2.17; L@2.75. Wealth 1.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30047765534921056}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@2.45; W@1.76; W@2.17; L@2.75; L@3.09. Wealth 1.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.48472346265279453}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.84 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.45; W@1.76; W@2.17; L@2.75; L@3.09; L@1.97. Wealth 1.981 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7371804453610652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.17 (win pays 2.17x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.76; W@2.17; L@2.75; L@3.09; L@1.97; W@1.54. Wealth 2.195 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2746080578234931}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.17; L@2.75; L@3.09; L@1.97; W@1.54; L@3.17. Wealth 2.195 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35249720100769566}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.25 (win pays 0.25x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.76 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.75; L@3.09; L@1.97; W@1.54; L@3.17; L@2.50. Wealth 2.195 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8306369960032126}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.66 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.09; L@1.97; W@1.54; L@3.17; L@2.50; L@1.25. Wealth 1.866 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7505799367728184}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; W@1.54; L@3.17; L@2.50; L@1.25; W@1.53. Wealth 2.161 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7322431103844039}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.28 (win pays 0.28x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.81 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@3.17; L@2.50; L@1.25; W@1.53; W@1.53. Wealth 2.389 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8273883221123132}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.41 (win pays 1.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.17; L@2.50; L@1.25; W@1.53; W@1.53; L@1.28. Wealth 1.911 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4015929922001362}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; L@1.25; W@1.53; W@1.53; L@1.28; L@2.41. Wealth 1.911 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38335000106664757}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.63 (win pays 0.63x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.25; W@1.53; W@1.53; L@1.28; L@2.41; L@2.66. Wealth 1.911 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5403859668045147}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.04 (win pays 4.04x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.25 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; W@1.53; L@1.28; L@2.41; L@2.66; L@1.63. Wealth 1.911 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20149951582984948}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 4.24 (win pays 3.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.53; L@1.28; L@2.41; L@2.66; L@1.63; L@5.04. Wealth 1.911 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2655374402898802}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.78 (win pays 3.78x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.28; L@2.41; L@2.66; L@1.63; L@5.04; L@4.24. Wealth 1.816 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22229506129230972}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.18 (win pays 0.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.63 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.41; L@2.66; L@1.63; L@5.04; L@4.24; L@4.78. Wealth 1.816 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7644425352174506}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.85 (win pays 0.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; L@1.63; L@5.04; L@4.24; L@4.78; W@1.18. Wealth 1.816 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5075630918265678}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: none. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 0/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3353000672348469}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.89 (win pays 1.89x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 1/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3565620437608431}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.57 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@2.89. Wealth 1.000 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 2/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6874247572553958}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@2.89; W@1.60. Wealth 1.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 3/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5640517195116995}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.24 (win pays 3.24x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@2.89; W@1.60; L@1.82. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 4/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23808216523117795}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.20 (win pays 0.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.90 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@2.89; W@1.60; L@1.82; L@4.24. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 5/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8241265841695546}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.12 (win pays 4.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; W@2.89; W@1.60; L@1.82; L@4.24; W@1.20. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 6/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18456444579727885}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.89; W@1.60; L@1.82; L@4.24; W@1.20; W@5.12. Wealth 1.035 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 7/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.506140015915038}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.05 (win pays 2.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.60; L@1.82; L@4.24; W@1.20; W@5.12; W@2.14. Wealth 1.094 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 8/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3510924253251272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.82; L@4.24; W@1.20; W@5.12; W@2.14; L@3.05. Wealth 1.040 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 9/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5339875609045556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.75 (win pays 0.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.24; W@1.20; W@5.12; W@2.14; L@3.05; W@2.14. Wealth 1.218 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 10/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6264833844742338}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.45 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.20; W@5.12; W@2.14; L@3.05; W@2.14; W@1.75. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 11/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5634780618603483}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.00 (win pays 1.00x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.12; W@2.14; L@3.05; W@2.14; W@1.75; L@1.72. Wealth 1.354 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 12/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5165245315253213}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 5.36 (win pays 4.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; L@3.05; W@2.14; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.00. Wealth 1.422 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 13/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19478552224346657}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.93 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.05; W@2.14; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.00; L@5.36. Wealth 1.422 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 14/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7921501493167601}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.60 (win pays 0.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.00; L@5.36; W@1.22. Wealth 1.422 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 15/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6710657101895319}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.47 (win pays 3.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.09 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.75; L@1.72; W@2.00; L@5.36; W@1.22; L@1.60. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 16/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.22213451145617258}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.02 (win pays 3.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.72; W@2.00; L@5.36; W@1.22; L@1.60; L@4.47. Wealth 1.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 17/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2715808509198683}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 6.11 (win pays 5.11x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.00; L@5.36; W@1.22; L@1.60; L@4.47; W@4.02. Wealth 1.391 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 18/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.15180776695595286}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.53 (win pays 4.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.36; W@1.22; L@1.60; L@4.47; W@4.02; L@6.11. Wealth 1.391 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 19/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16813984019668776}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.12 (win pays 1.12x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; L@1.60; L@4.47; W@4.02; L@6.11; W@5.53. Wealth 1.391 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 20/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5292213154294342}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.22 (win pays 0.22x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.83 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.60; L@4.47; W@4.02; L@6.11; W@5.53; L@2.12. Wealth 1.252 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 21/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7578684162265925}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.65 (win pays 0.65x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.47; W@4.02; L@6.11; W@5.53; L@2.12; W@1.22. Wealth 1.252 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 22/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6953467266864586}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.99 (win pays 0.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.02; L@6.11; W@5.53; L@2.12; W@1.22; W@1.65. Wealth 1.415 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 23/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4642749752652272}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.70 (win pays 1.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.11; W@5.53; L@2.12; W@1.22; W@1.65; L@1.99. Wealth 1.415 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 24/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.39384231671877223}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.83 (win pays 0.83x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.53; L@2.12; W@1.22; W@1.65; L@1.99; W@2.70. Wealth 1.535 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 25/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5866885884958819}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.55 (win pays 0.55x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.77 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.12; W@1.22; W@1.65; L@1.99; W@2.70; W@1.83. Wealth 1.662 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 26/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6945563707054991}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.14 (win pays 1.14x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.22; W@1.65; L@1.99; W@2.70; W@1.83; W@1.55. Wealth 1.800 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 27/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5060440217962491}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.90 (win pays 1.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.52 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.65; L@1.99; W@2.70; W@1.83; W@1.55; W@2.14. Wealth 1.902 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 28/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.38018234928867173}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.75 (win pays 2.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.99; W@2.70; W@1.83; W@1.55; W@2.14; L@2.90. Wealth 1.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 29/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27653791319714016}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.49 (win pays 0.49x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.58 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.70; W@1.83; W@1.55; W@2.14; L@2.90; W@3.75. Wealth 1.807 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 30/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7512007846242553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.76 (win pays 0.76x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.83; W@1.55; W@2.14; L@2.90; W@3.75; W@1.49. Wealth 1.984 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 31/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.582676074335739}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 3.08 (win pays 2.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.55; W@2.14; L@2.90; W@3.75; W@1.49; L@1.76. Wealth 1.885 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 32/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3612622608339652}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.89 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.14; L@2.90; W@3.75; W@1.49; L@1.76; L@3.08. Wealth 1.791 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 33/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6436214224113865}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.90; W@3.75; W@1.49; L@1.76; L@3.08; W@1.43. Wealth 1.791 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 34/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5082606993851466}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@3.75; W@1.49; L@1.76; L@3.08; W@1.43; L@1.88. Wealth 1.791 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 35/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7643178607563617}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.32 (win pays 0.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.49; L@1.76; L@3.08; W@1.43; L@1.88; W@1.41. Wealth 1.939 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 36/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8215662943269745}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.54 (win pays 0.54x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.53 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.76; L@3.08; W@1.43; L@1.88; W@1.41; W@1.32. Wealth 2.125 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 37/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6587610790070779}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.05 (win pays 1.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.08; W@1.43; L@1.88; W@1.41; W@1.32; W@1.54. Wealth 2.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 38/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.428649187311531}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.60 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@1.88; W@1.41; W@1.32; W@1.54; L@2.05. Wealth 2.182 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 39/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5059398705442382}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.47 (win pays 0.47x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.75 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; W@1.41; W@1.32; W@1.54; L@2.05; L@2.09. Wealth 2.073 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 40/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7712478502042899}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.08 (win pays 1.08x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.41; W@1.32; W@1.54; L@2.05; L@2.09; W@1.47. Wealth 2.368 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 41/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4668718760059605}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.34 (win pays 0.34x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.32; W@1.54; L@2.05; L@2.09; W@1.47; W@2.08. Wealth 2.368 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 42/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7638026141259526}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.48 (win pays 0.48x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.85 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.54; L@2.05; L@2.09; W@1.47; W@2.08; L@1.34. Wealth 2.249 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 43/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6843527758129186}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 3.80 (win pays 2.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.22 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.05; L@2.09; W@1.47; W@2.08; L@1.34; W@1.48. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 44/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27636693846071936}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.91 (win pays 1.91x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.09; W@1.47; W@2.08; L@1.34; W@1.48; L@3.80. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 45/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30791145864865976}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.97 (win pays 0.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.47 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.47; W@2.08; L@1.34; W@1.48; L@3.80; L@2.91. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 46/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5203018034202426}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.10 (win pays 0.10x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.62 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.08; L@1.34; W@1.48; L@3.80; L@2.91; L@1.97. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 47/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.8339988294678816}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.79 (win pays 0.79x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.39 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.34; W@1.48; L@3.80; L@2.91; L@1.97; L@1.10. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 48/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5059199539281048}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.81 (win pays 0.81x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.44 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.48; L@3.80; L@2.91; L@1.97; L@1.10; W@1.79. Wealth 2.303 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 49/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5905389007942917}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.80; L@2.91; L@1.97; L@1.10; W@1.79; W@1.81. Wealth 2.490 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 50/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4150882610327208}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.41 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.91; L@1.97; L@1.10; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@2.66. Wealth 2.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 51/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5688605116215113}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.80 (win pays 0.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.43 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.97; L@1.10; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@2.66; L@1.53. Wealth 2.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 52/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.530725722824276}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.13 (win pays 0.13x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.73 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.10; W@1.79; W@1.81; W@2.66; L@1.53; W@1.80. Wealth 2.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 53/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.793133653758225}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.82 (win pays 0.82x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.79; W@1.81; W@2.66; L@1.53; W@1.80; W@1.13. Wealth 2.696 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 54/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5950745966112373}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 3.01 (win pays 2.01x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.81; W@2.66; L@1.53; W@1.80; W@1.13; W@1.82. Wealth 2.917 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 55/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.30590224763035867}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.10 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.66; L@1.53; W@1.80; W@1.13; W@1.82; L@3.01. Wealth 2.917 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 56/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4176794141143503}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.02 (win pays 3.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.53; W@1.80; W@1.13; W@1.82; L@3.01; L@2.60. Wealth 2.772 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 57/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.27714085265837096}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.75 (win pays 1.75x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.48 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.80; W@1.13; W@1.82; L@3.01; L@2.60; L@4.02. Wealth 2.633 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 58/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.40494195440873193}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.65 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.13; W@1.82; L@3.01; L@2.60; L@4.02; W@2.75. Wealth 2.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 59/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6407089730103929}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.74 (win pays 3.74x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.27 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.82; L@3.01; L@2.60; L@4.02; W@2.75; W@1.43. Wealth 2.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 60/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.23019577955437218}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.36 (win pays 3.36x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.18 (noisy). Your recent results: L@3.01; L@2.60; L@4.02; W@2.75; W@1.43; L@4.74. Wealth 2.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 61/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.2091422509730494}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.05 (win pays 0.05x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.98 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; L@4.02; W@2.75; W@1.43; L@4.74; L@4.36. Wealth 2.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 62/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.831860267337049}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.57 (win pays 0.57x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.69 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.02; W@2.75; W@1.43; L@4.74; L@4.36; W@1.05. Wealth 2.863 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 63/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7030827214562411}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.88 (win pays 0.88x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.59 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.75; W@1.43; L@4.74; L@4.36; W@1.05; W@1.57. Wealth 3.191 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 64/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.465922034879501}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.37 (win pays 0.37x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.61 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@4.74; L@4.36; W@1.05; W@1.57; L@1.88. Wealth 3.191 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 65/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6729227340323598}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.43 (win pays 0.43x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.80 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.74; L@4.36; W@1.05; W@1.57; L@1.88; W@1.37. Wealth 3.191 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 66/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.7683542270578632}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 2.42 (win pays 1.42x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.31 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.36; W@1.05; W@1.57; L@1.88; W@1.37; W@1.43. Wealth 3.467 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 67/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3994970760785066}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.77 (win pays 1.77x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.38 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.05; W@1.57; L@1.88; W@1.37; W@1.43; L@2.42. Wealth 3.467 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 68/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3881226393592523}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.57; L@1.88; W@1.37; W@1.43; L@2.42; W@2.77. Wealth 3.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 69/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5561919862090684}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 6.85 (win pays 5.85x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.12 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.88; W@1.37; W@1.43; L@2.42; W@2.77; W@1.62. Wealth 3.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 70/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1596307310145298}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 5.80 (win pays 4.80x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.36 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.37; W@1.43; L@2.42; W@2.77; W@1.62; L@6.85. Wealth 3.775 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 71/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19276021491014475}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 1.70 (win pays 0.70x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.68 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.43; L@2.42; W@2.77; W@1.62; L@6.85; L@5.80. Wealth 3.586 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 72/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5700390355222135}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.50 (win pays 1.50x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.42; W@2.77; W@1.62; L@6.85; L@5.80; L@1.70. Wealth 3.586 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 73/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.43923843765273174}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.97 (win pays 1.97x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.40 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.77; W@1.62; L@6.85; L@5.80; L@1.70; L@2.50. Wealth 3.406 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 74/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3707630514052932}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 4.90 (win pays 3.90x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.02 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.62; L@6.85; L@5.80; L@1.70; L@2.50; W@2.97. Wealth 3.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 75/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.19883262554150127}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.60 (win pays 1.60x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.85; L@5.80; L@1.70; L@2.50; W@2.97; W@4.90. Wealth 3.741 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 76/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4144642032710707}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.07 (win pays 1.07x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.80; L@1.70; L@2.50; W@2.97; W@4.90; L@2.60. Wealth 3.554 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 77/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4456909770769111}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.02 (win pays 1.02x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.67 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.70; L@2.50; W@2.97; W@4.90; L@2.60; L@2.07. Wealth 3.554 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 78/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5105744711046994}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.09 (win pays 1.09x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.30 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.50; W@2.97; W@4.90; L@2.60; L@2.07; L@2.02. Wealth 3.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 79/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4079304109266556}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.56 (win pays 0.56x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.50 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.97; W@4.90; L@2.60; L@2.07; L@2.02; W@2.09. Wealth 3.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 80/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.584461339640806}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 5.27 (win pays 4.27x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.14 (noisy). Your recent results: W@4.90; L@2.60; L@2.07; L@2.02; W@2.09; W@1.56. Wealth 3.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 81/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.18875630123216458}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 5.58 (win pays 4.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.28 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.60; L@2.07; L@2.02; W@2.09; W@1.56; W@5.27. Wealth 3.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 82/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.1590364878814416}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 1.62 (win pays 0.62x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.49 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.07; L@2.02; W@2.09; W@1.56; W@5.27; L@5.58. Wealth 3.377 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 83/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6359605792439549}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 4.58 (win pays 3.58x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.21 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.02; W@2.09; W@1.56; W@5.27; L@5.58; L@1.62. Wealth 3.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 84/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.20617483183907293}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.15 (win pays 1.15x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.09; W@1.56; W@5.27; L@5.58; L@1.62; L@4.58. Wealth 3.208 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 85/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5151049554424553}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 4.99 (win pays 3.99x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.13 (noisy). Your recent results: W@1.56; W@5.27; L@5.58; L@1.62; L@4.58; W@2.15. Wealth 3.576 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 86/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.21048783025511192}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 1.41 (win pays 0.41x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.55 (noisy). Your recent results: W@5.27; L@5.58; L@1.62; L@4.58; W@2.15; L@4.99. Wealth 3.576 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 87/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.634110570776966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.40 (win pays 0.40x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.79 (noisy). Your recent results: L@5.58; L@1.62; L@4.58; W@2.15; L@4.99; L@1.41. Wealth 3.576 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 88/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.75293450903966}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.32 (win pays 1.32x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.33 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.62; L@4.58; W@2.15; L@4.99; L@1.41; L@1.40. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 89/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.42309665937438834}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.46 (win pays 1.46x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.56 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.58; W@2.15; L@4.99; L@1.41; L@1.40; W@2.32. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 90/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3627687497913407}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 4.20 (win pays 3.20x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.35 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.15; L@4.99; L@1.41; L@1.40; W@2.32; L@2.46. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 91/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.24729211561757083}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 6.33 (win pays 5.33x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.15 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.99; L@1.41; L@1.40; W@2.32; L@2.46; L@4.20. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 92/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.16290224213486829}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 2.66 (win pays 1.66x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.41; L@1.40; W@2.32; L@2.46; L@4.20; L@6.33. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 93/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.35233481599612115}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: esports match, team A winrate signal. Posted decimal odds 3.92 (win pays 2.92x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.26 (noisy). Your recent results: L@1.40; W@2.32; L@2.46; L@4.20; L@6.33; L@2.66. Wealth 3.039 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 94/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.28656938983458424}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: server load staying under capacity. Posted decimal odds 2.26 (win pays 1.26x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.51 (noisy). Your recent results: W@2.32; L@2.46; L@4.20; L@6.33; L@2.66; L@3.92. Wealth 2.887 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 95/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.4892155056617703}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.53 (win pays 0.53x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.54 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.46; L@4.20; L@6.33; L@2.66; L@3.92; W@2.26. Wealth 3.252 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 96/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.6661609155770967}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: options expiry above strike. Posted decimal odds 2.18 (win pays 1.18x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.42 (noisy). Your recent results: L@4.20; L@6.33; L@2.66; L@3.92; W@2.26; L@1.53. Wealth 3.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 97/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.445286424892568}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: weather front bringing rain. Posted decimal odds 2.44 (win pays 1.44x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.29 (noisy). Your recent results: L@6.33; L@2.66; L@3.92; W@2.26; L@1.53; L@2.18. Wealth 3.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 98/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.3786251625646722}}
{"state": "Sequential betting desk. Event: clinical screening test outcome. Posted decimal odds 1.72 (win pays 0.72x stake). Market consensus estimate P(win)=0.32 (noisy). Your recent results: L@2.66; L@3.92; W@2.26; L@1.53; L@2.18; W@2.44. Wealth 3.090 (start 1.0; ruin at <0.05). Step 99/100. Pick the stake fraction maximizing long-run log growth.", "questions": {"act": {"type": "choice", "instructions": "Choose the stake fraction.", "criteria": {"0": "stake 0% of wealth", "1": "stake 5% of wealth", "2": "stake 10% of wealth", "3": "stake 15% of wealth", "4": "stake 20% of wealth", "5": "stake 30% of wealth", "6": "stake 40% of wealth", "7": "stake 50% of wealth", "8": "stake 65% of wealth", "9": "stake 80% of wealth", "10": "stake 100% of wealth"}}, "p_win": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Calibrated probability the event resolves WIN.", "criteria": {}}}, "targets": {"act": [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], "p_win": 0.5444661010905906}}