--- license: other license_name: csil-3.0 license_link: https://catqualia.com/licensing task_categories: - text-classification - text-generation language: - en tags: - falsification - negative-results - epistemics - calibration - research-ledger - reproducible-research pretty_name: Falsification Ledger — Tested Claims with CONFIRMED / REFUTED / UNVERIFIED Verdicts size_categories: - 10K 0.50`; measured ratio `0.6256` over `n = 9824`. - **`REFUTED`** — of 18 isomorphism candidates listed in `COMPOSITION_CANDIDATES.md`, only 2 share genuine non-generic domain types; the rest are template artefacts. The measured field records the two that survived and names them. - **`REFUTED`** — "The 3 largest `datasets/*.jsonl` have >90% unique rows (sellable)." Full-row exact dedup did exceed 90% (91.11% / 99.42% / 98.41%), but the rows differ only by timestamp, so the refutation is of the *sellable* part of the claim, not the uniqueness part. Verdicts in this ledger frequently hinge on a qualifier rather than the headline number. - **`UNVERIFIED`** — a claim about per-row implementation scores could not be tested because no such field exists: `measured` records `implementation_field: "ABSENT"` across the corpus. `UNVERIFIED` here means "not testable as posed", not "test failed". Two further examples showing the vocabulary is graded rather than binary: - **`STRONG_FALSIFIED / WEAK_CONFIRMED`** — a four-surface grader-hardening claim. Threshold: `STRONG_CONFIRMED` iff `Delta_after <= 0.05` on all four surfaces under one operator; `STRONG_FALSIFIED` iff any surface needs a structurally different operator; `WEAK_CONFIRMED` iff every surface closes under *some* operator. The measured field holds per-surface before/after deltas. The verdict is the compound label because the result sits between the two. - **`CONTESTED`** — a cross-domain overlap test where two statistics disagreed: the cosine statistic fell *below* its shuffled-label null (`z_cos = -78.83`) while the Jaccard statistic rose above its null (`z_jac = 3.85`). Two simultaneous truth conditions, one met and one not, recorded as `CONTESTED` rather than resolved. ## Provenance and verification status — read this before using These verdicts are **the author's own verdicts, produced by the author's own scripts running against the author's own files.** They are not independent replication. - The `method` field is dominated by the author's internal checking programs (`ground-truth file check` is the most common label among script-run methods; the three largest single methods are the author's own named checkers). The `check` field names the script or check, not an external replicator. - `ts` values span 84 distinct values in `FALSIFICATION_LEDGER.jsonl`, from `1783591210` to `2026-09-13`, and are written by the generating script rather than by a notary. All 230 rows of `FORMAL_VERDICTS.jsonl` carry the single timestamp `2026-06-22`. - Nothing in these files is signed, hash-chained, or externally attested. A row is a claim about a computation that the reader cannot see. Several `FORMAL_VERDICTS.jsonl` rows are self-referential with respect to the author's earlier work: 4 rows carry `overturns_prior: true`, meaning the formal result contradicts a verdict the author had previously recorded elsewhere. Only 204 of 230 rows include a `steps` list showing the derivation. ### What independent reproduction would require To independently reproduce a single verdict from this dataset, a replicator needs: 1. **The `check` script.** 8607 rows have a `check` value ending in `.py`. 254 of those name a `.py` file that is **not included in this dataset** — the value names a module in the wider source tree rather than a file shipped here. Even the 8353 rows whose `check` value matches a filename in the source's `falsifications/` directory cannot be run from this dataset alone, because `falsifications/` is not part of it. The remaining 7585 rows name a bare check identifier rather than a file, which is not resolvable to a script from the ledger alone. 2. **The input data the check read.** The claims are about the author's corpus — row counts, ratios, and file contents under `<>`. That corpus is not shipped here. 3. **The same thresholds and the same arithmetic.** Some rows include the threshold, but 23 of 16217 do not; where the threshold is absent, the confirm/refute boundary has to be inferred from the text. 4. **For `FORMAL_VERDICTS.jsonl`**, the formal method is named (`method` cites specific solver versions, e.g. `sympy1.14+z3-4.16`) but the proof scripts are not included. Reproduction means re-deriving the obligation in a solver, not re-running a shipped artefact. In short: this dataset is a faithful record of one process's self-assessment. It is evidence about that process, not evidence about the world. ## Companion script directory — how a row maps to a script The source tree carries a directory of falsifier scripts beside the ledger. Measured: `falsifications/` holds **386 directory entries, of which 385 are regular files — 383 files matching `*.py`**, plus `_worklist.json` and `ueto_substrate4_results.json`, and a `__pycache__` directory. Those *.py files total **2,162,874 bytes**; regular files including the two JSON files total **2,485,939 bytes**, and every entry including the directory totals **2,518,707 bytes**. That directory is **not shipped in this dataset** — these are the source numbers it would need to be checked against. The link between a ledger row and a script is the **`check` field**, and it is not a uniform pointer. Measured over the 16217 parsable rows: | `check` value shape | rows | resolves to a shipped file? | |---|---|---| | absent | 25 | no | | a bare identifier, e.g. `loop_ingest_compounds`, `corpus_integrity_guard` | 7585 | no | | ends in `.py`, and the filename exists in `falsifications/` | 8353 | **N of M = 8353 of 16217 rows name a script that exists** there | | ends in `.py`, filename not in `falsifications/` (module reference) | 254 | no | So the direct answer to "does every row name a script that exists?" is **no — 8353 of 16217 rows (51.5%) name a file that is present in `falsifications/`.** 7585 rows (46.8%) name a bare check identifier that is not a filename at all; those correspond to checks implemented as functions inside the larger loop programs rather than as standalone falsifier scripts, and the ledger does not record which file defines them. 25 rows carry no `check` at all. Note the direction of the mismatch: the 8353 resolvable rows draw on only a subset of the 383 scripts present. The directory holds more scripts than the ledger references by filename, so a reader cannot infer "one script per row" in either direction. ## Known defects - `FALSIFICATION_LEDGER.jsonl` contains **1 corrupt line** at 1-indexed line 15254: a run of NUL bytes beginning at byte offset 16219770, produced by an interrupted write. It is the only line in the file that does not parse, and the 16217 parsable rows before and after it are intact. A reader should skip unparsable lines rather than fail. - 25 rows carry `n: null` even though the field is present, so `n` cannot be treated as a reliable integer column without coercing. - `verdict` mixes single labels with compound ones (`STRONG_FALSIFIED / WEAK_CONFIRMED`) and with rare process states (`CRASH`, `DRY`, `SURVIVES`). A naive 3-class filter over `CONFIRMED` / `REFUTED` / `UNVERIFIED` will silently drop those rows. - `ts` is not uniformly typed across the wider corpus this was drawn from; within this file it is consistent. ## How to load ```python import json rows = [] for line in open("FALSIFICATION_LEDGER.jsonl", "rb"): line = line.strip() if not line: continue try: rows.append(json.loads(line)) except json.JSONDecodeError: continue # skips the single corrupt line refuted = [r for r in rows if r.get("verdict") == "REFUTED"] ``` ## Internal paths — redacted (resolved, was a pre-release disclosure) `FALSIFICATION_LEDGER.jsonl` originally carried the author's absolute filesystem paths in its `measured` and `check` values — the literal files his own machine inspected. An earlier revision of this card flagged that as an open publish-or-redact decision. **It has been redacted.** Absolute machine paths are now replaced with stable tokens: | Token | Replaces | |---|---| | `<>` | the author's primary research tree root | | `<>` | the author's second research tree root | | `<>` | the author's external storage root | | `<>` | any other path under the author's home directory | Measured over the 16,218 lines (16,217 parsable rows): **630 rows carried such a path and now carry tokens instead; zero absolute owner paths remain.** The redaction was verified to be row-count-identical and to leave every row valid JSON, because this ledger's published integrity claims — the row count, the composition split, the re-run analysis — all depend on that being true. Two consequences worth stating plainly: - The **row count is unchanged** at 16,218 lines / 16,217 parsable, so every count on this card still holds. - Paths inside **`measured` values are now tokenised too**, so re-running a check against the author's own tree will produce a literal path where the ledger shows a token. Compare on the measured quantities, not on the path strings. `FORMAL_VERDICTS.jsonl` and `certified_nulls.json` remain clean. A note on why this is a real fix rather than cosmetics: a leaked directory layout is not sensitive in the way a credential is, but it is detail that helps nobody and identifies the machine. The author's own release pipeline treats `/home/` and `/run/media` as leak patterns; this ledger now passes that same test. ## Reproducibility — the replay result The companion script directory is published as the [falsification suite](https://huggingface.co/datasets/CatQualia/falsification-suite), and it ships `verify_ledger.py`, which re-runs the scripts and compares their fresh verdicts against the verdicts recorded here. Run across all 299 shipped scripts referenced by this ledger: | Outcome | Scripts | |---|---| | Verdicts **reproduced** | **163** | | Fresh `UNVERIFIED` — inputs not shipped | 120 | | Import failed outright | 13 | | No `JSON_RESULT` produced | 2 | | Genuine divergences | 1 | The single divergence is `fals_federation_of_clocks_hierarchy.py`, which emits `SURVIVES_GATED_OPTIMUM` — a verdict label this ledger never recorded. That is a taxonomy mismatch rather than a failed reproduction, and it is reported as such. Of this ledger's 16,217 rows, **8,353 (51.5%) name a script shipped in the suite and can be replayed by anyone**; 254 name a `fals_*.py` that is not in the suite; and 7,610 were produced by bespoke internal checks whose harness is named in `check` but shipped nowhere. That last group is the honest gap in the record, and `reproducibility_map.json` names every one of them rather than leaving it as an average. ## Files - `FALSIFICATION_LEDGER.jsonl` — 17,295,354 B, 16217 parsable rows, 1 corrupt line. - `FORMAL_VERDICTS.jsonl` — 142233 B, 230 rows. - `certified_nulls.json` — 8376 B, a JSON array of 12 objects, each with `id`, `name`, `claim`, `verdict`, `evidence`, `method`, `campaign`, `implication`, and `attestation` object with `source`, `provenance`, and `ts`. ## Licence CC-BY-4.0 — attribution required, commercial use permitted. Copyright 2026 Christopher Betances (catqualia.com)