id,date_window,macro_context,cross_asset_summary,volatility_structure,liquidity_conditions,positioning_notes,current_regime_basin,adjacent_regime_targets,trigger_condition_set,transition_probability_24h,transition_probability_72h,projected_post_shift_structure,notes,constraints,gold_checklist
MRB-001,"2025-01-15_to_2025-01-18","rates shock risk","equities falling; yields spiking; credit widening","front vol rising","liquidity thinning","macro funds crowded short bonds","macro_rates","liquidity_crisis;deleveraging","rates_break>20bps;credit_spread_widening",0.42,0.68,"equities_down;vol_up;credit_widen","Fragile macro regime","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"
MRB-002,"2025-02-05_to_2025-02-07","stable macro","equities stable; credit tight","vol flat","liquidity strong","balanced positioning","risk_on_liquidity","growth_beta","earnings_surprise_positive",0.18,0.32,"cyclicals_up;vol_down","Low transition risk","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"
MRB-003,"2025-03-10_to_2025-03-12","policy uncertainty","rates volatile; equities choppy","vol surface dislocated","liquidity deteriorating","CTA crowded long equities","uncertain_transition","risk_off;volatility_spike","policy_surprise;vol_spike",0.55,0.76,"equities_down;vol_up;liquidity_drop","Transition forming","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"
MRB-004,"2025-04-01_to_2025-04-04","growth optimism","equities rising; credit tight","vol suppressed","liquidity strong","risk-on positioning","growth_beta","macro_rates","inflation_data_upside",0.22,0.40,"yields_up;equities_mixed","Moderate transition risk","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"
MRB-005,"2025-05-22_to_2025-05-25","geopolitical shock","oil spikes; equities drop","vol spike front-end","liquidity patchy","risk parity deleveraging","shock_repricing","liquidity_crisis","oil_spike>5%;credit_gap",0.60,0.82,"equities_down;credit_widen;vol_up","Shock transition","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"
MRB-006,"2025-06-11_to_2025-06-13","mixed macro","equities drifting; yields drifting","vol rising slowly","liquidity neutral","mild positioning crowd","growth_beta","uncertain_transition","vol_trend_up",0.28,0.45,"equities_sideways;vol_up","Weak transition","Use relationships not price.","basin+targets+prob"