title: An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised?
abstract: &lt;p&gt;This paper develops a novel theoretical framework for the conduct of postmortems after major foreign policy surprises for the European Union and its member states. It proposes a taxonomy of surprise which elucidates how officials or organisations experience both sudden and slower-burning threats. It argues that foreign policy surprises in European settings require a closer look at who was surprised, in what way, and when. The paper outlines six vital performance criteria and three key a
journal: Intelligence & National Security