title: Coercion in an Era of Gray Zone Conflict: Explaining Russia's Responses to Declining Role in the Post-Soviet Region
abstract: Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, it was predicted by numerous academics, policymakers, and media sources that Moscow would use its military in a similar manner in the rest of Ukraine. However, contrary to these predictions, Moscow used various hybrid tools and tactics, such as targeted media operations, material support for ethnic-based movements, as well as covert security operations. Such tools and tactics have become a defining feature of gray zone conflicts, which dominate the m