title: The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence 1
abstract: How did the EU’s foreign policy machinery anticipate and handle the events leading from the summer of 2013 to the late summer of 2014 starting with Russia increasing pressure on Eastern Partnership states up to the to the annexation of Crimea by force and the military intervention in Donbass. The authors find that some aspects were less surprising, such as the U-Turn of President Yanukovych before the Vilnius summit, whereas the Russian annexation of Crimea came as a complete surprise to officia
journal: Edinburgh University Press eBooks