title: The end of the war in Ukraine: Scenarios and consequences
abstract: After two and a half years of Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine, there are now four main possible scenarios for its outcome:-'Long war' -An attritional conflict that tests each side's limits.-'Frozen conflict' -An armistice that would stabilize the front line where it is.-'Victory for Ukraine' -A Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of 23 February 2022.-'Defeat for Ukraine' -Ukraine's acceptance of Russian terms of surrender (