title: China’s counterfactual roles in the Ukraine war
abstract: I conceive four counterfactuals – three miracle and one plausible world counterfactuals – to probe the causes and contingency of Chinese policy toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict before and after the 2022 invasion. The first two miracle counterfactuals – criticizing the 2014 Crimea annexation and warning against the 2022 invasion – would not have changed Putin’s mind. The third miracle counterfactual of Chinese opposition to the invasion would have hastened the end of the war. The fourth, plausi
journal: Globalizations