title: Michael Handel, October 7, and The Theory of Surprise
abstract: The Theory of Surprise, derived from Michael Handel’s work on intelligence, can explain the origins, course, and aftermath of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Strategic surprise attack and associated intelligence-policy failure occurs when weak opponents use surprise to gain objectives that are impossible to attain when facing an alert, and militarily superior, opponent.
journal: Military Strategy Magazine