title: Russian Federation 2015 From Stagnation to Recession and Back
abstract: Russia was in the direst straits even before the Ukraine crisis erupted on a grand scale in 2014. The sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea have deterred investments still further and instigated capital flight. The oil price slump of late 2014 and the related collapse of the rouble have inflicted additional pain and boosted inflation. Assuming that the sanctions and oil prices remain at their current (mid-2015) levels, our baseline scenario sticks to an earlier forecast of a close to 
journal: RePEc: Research Papers in Economics