title: Scenario-Based Projections of Educational Capital in Russian Regions: A Comparison of Consolidated and Differentiated Investment Policies
abstract: In recent years, regional policy has prioritized developing human capital amid population decline and rising geoeconomic fragmentation. This paper projects the development of human capital in Russian regions up to 2035 under two scenarios: a consolidated policy scenario (CPS) promoting regional convergence and a differentiated policy scenario (DPS) maintaining existing heterogeneity. Using dynamic panel regression with Arellano–Bond estimators and Rosstat data for 84 regions, the study examines 
journal: Economy of Regions