dedup/cb_requests/0076c819a59c0f17fe92906a1cf20c79.json

{"doc_id": "0076c819a59c0f17fe92906a1cf20c79", "text": "ECONOMIC REPORT \nFIRST QUARTER 2015 \n \n \n \nCENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage ii \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nThe Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination \nof financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The \nReport analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the \neconomy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at \na wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government \nand the private sector, as well as general readers. \n \n \n \n \nSubscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations, \nembassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue \nwithout a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank \nof Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria. \n \nThe Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage iii \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nContents \n1.0 \nSummary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 \n2.0 \nFinancial Sector Developments .................................................................................................... 5 \n2.1 \nMonetary and Credit Developments ............................................................................................ 5 \n2.2 \nCurrency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at the CBN ................................................................. 8 \n2.3 \nMoney Market Developments ...................................................................................................... 9 \n2.3.1 \nInterest Rate Developments ................................................................................................. 9 \n2.3.2 \nCommercial Papers (CPs) .................................................................................................... 10 \n2.3.3 \nBankers’ Acceptances (BAs) ................................................................................................ 11 \n2.3.4 \nOpen Market Operations .................................................................................................... 11 \n2.3.5 \nPrimary Market ................................................................................................................... 11 \n2.3.6 \nBonds Market ...................................................................................................................... 12 \n2.3.7 \nCBN Standing Facilities ........................................................................................................ 12 \n2.4 \nDeposit Money Banks’ Activities ................................................................................................. 12 \n2.5 \nDiscount Houses’ Activities ......................................................................................................... 12 \n2.6 \nCapital Market Developments .................................................................................................... 14 \n2.6.1 \nSecondary Market ............................................................................................................... 14 \n2.6.2 \nNew Issues Market .............................................................................................................. 15 \n2.6.3 \nMarket Capitalization .......................................................................................................... 15 \n2.6.4 \nNSE All-Share Index ............................................................................................................. 15 \n3.0 \nFiscal Operations ........................................................................................................................ 17 \n3.1 \nFederation Account Operations .................................................................................................. 17 \n3.2 \nThe Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of Government ........................................................... 20 \n3.2.1 \nThe Federal Government .................................................................................................... 20 \n3.2.2 \nStatutory Allocations to State Governments ...................................................................... 22 \n3.2.3 \nStatutory Allocations to Local Government Councils ......................................................... 22 \n4.0 \nDomestic Economic Conditions .................................................................................................. 23 \n4.1 \nAgricultural Sector ...................................................................................................................... 23 \n4.2 \nIndustrial Production .................................................................................................................. 25 \n4.3 \nPetroleum Sector ........................................................................................................................ 26 \n4.4 \nConsumer Prices ......................................................................................................................... 28 \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage iv \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n5.0 \nExternal Sector Developments ................................................................................................... 31 \n5.1 \nForeign Exchange Flows .............................................................................................................. 31 \n5.2 \nNon-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters ......................................................................................... 33 \n5.3 \nSectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange .................................................................................... 33 \n5.4 \nForeign Exchange Market Developments ................................................................................... 34 \n5.5 \nGross External Reserves .............................................................................................................. 38 \n6.0 \nGlobal Economic Conditions.. ..................................................................................................... 39 \n6.1 \nGlobal Output.............................................................................................................................. 39 \n6.2 \nGlobal Inflation ............................................................................................................................ 39 \n6.3 \nGlobal Commodity Demand and Prices ...................................................................................... 40 \n6.4 \nInternational Financial Markets .................................................................................................. 40 \n6.5 \nOther International Economic Development and Meetings ....................................................... 41 \n \nText Tables \nTable 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates .................................................................................................... 8 \nTable 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages) .................................................................................................. 10 \nTable 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) .............................................................................. 14 \nTable 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) ......................................................... 15 \nTable 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (ASI) ............................................................................................ 16 \nTable 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue ............................................................................................................... 17 \nTable 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue ................................................................................................................ 18 \nTable 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue ........................................................................................................ 19 \nTable 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations ......................................................................................................... 21 \nTable 10: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme ............................................... 24 \nTable 11: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate ............................................. 26 \nTable 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market ............................................................................ 28 \nTable 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009 = 100) ........................................................................................... 29 \nTable 14: Headline Inflation Rate ................................................................................................................................ 30 \nTable 15: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN .................................................................................................. 32 \nTable 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange .............................................................................................. 35 \nTable 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium .......................................................................... 36 \nTable 18: Gross External Reserves ............................................................................................................................... 37 \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage v \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nAppendix Tables \nTable A1: Money and Credit Aggregates ....................................................................................................... 45 \nTable A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates) ......................................................................... 46 \nTable A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations ........................................................................................ 47 \nFigures \nFigure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2) ..................................................... 6 \nFigure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy .................................................. 7 \nFigure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average) ........................................................................................ 10 \nFigure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities ......................................................................................... 14 \nFigure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index .................................................................................... 16 \nFigure 6: Components of Gross Federally-Collected Revenue ................................................................. 17 \nFigure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components ......................................................................................... 18 \nFigure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components ................................................................................ 19 \nFigure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue ....................................................................................... 20 \nFigure 10: Federal Government Expenditure .................................................................................................. 21 \nFigure 11: Capacity Utilization Rate .................................................................................................................. 25 \nFigure 12: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100) .................................................................................... 26 \nFigure 13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices .................................................................................................................. 28 \nFigure 14: Consumer Price Index ........................................................................................................................ 29 \nFigure 15: Inflation Rate ........................................................................................................................................ 30 \nFigure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN .................................................................................. 32 \nFigure 17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange ...................................................................................... 34 \nFigure 18: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange ........................................................................... 34 \nFigure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements .......................................................................................... 36 \nFigure 20: Exchange Rate Premium .................................................................................................................. 36 \nFigure 21: Gross External Reserves ..................................................................................................................... 37 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage vi \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 1 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n1.0 Summary \nProvisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary \naggregate decelerated in the first quarter of 2015. Over the level at \nthe end of the preceding quarter, broad money supply, (M2), grew \nby 1.1 per cent, compared with 12.6 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter. The slow growth relative to the preceding \nquarter was attributed to the decline of 15.7 and 7.9 per cent in \nforeign assets (net) and other assets (net), respectively, which \ndampened the 10.0 per cent increase in domestic credit (net). \nAvailable data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit \nand lending rates during the first quarter of 2015. The spread \nbetween the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending \nrates widened by 0.31 percentage points to 17.52 percentage points \nat the end of the first quarter of 2015. Similarly, the margin between \nthe average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates, \nwidened by 0.37 percentage point to 22.73 percentage points. The \nweighted average inter-bank call rate fell by 0.52 percentage points \nto 15.43 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, reflecting the liquidity \ncondition in the inter-bank funds market. \nProvisional data indicated that the value of money market assets \noutstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2015 increased by 8.4 \nper cent to N8,307.52 billion, compared with the increase of 3.5 per \ncent at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was \nattributed to the 12.9 per cent increase in FGN Bonds outstanding. \nAvailable data indicated that developments in the Nigerian Stock \nExchange (NSE) were bearish during the first quarter of 2015. \nTotal federally-collected revenue \nstood at \nN1,812.87 billion, \nrepresenting a decline of 33.3 and 18.0 per cent below the \nproportionate 2014 quarterly budget estimate and receipts in the \npreceding quarter, respectively. At N1,210.77 billion, oil receipts, \nwhich constituted 66.8 per cent of the total, fell below the \nproportionate 2014 quaterly budget estimate by 32.4 and 17.4 per \ncent, respectively. The fall in oil receipts was attributed, largely, to a \ndecline in receipts from PPT and Royalties owing to the decline in \ncrude oil prices. \nNon-oil receipts, at N602.10 billion, was lower than the provisional \n2014 quaterly budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding \nquarter by 35.1 and 19.1 per cent, respectively. Federal Government \nretained revenue was N751.36 billion, while total expenditure was \nN560.31 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government \nresulted in an estimated surplus of N191.05 billion in the first quarter of \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 2 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n2015, compared with the provisional 2014 quarterly budget deficit of \nN241.05 billion. \nActivities in the agricultural sector were dominated by harvesting of \ntree crops, tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and clearing of land \nfor 2015 wet season farming. Nigeria’s crude oil production, \nincluding condensates and natural gas liquids, averaged at 1.89 \nmillion barrels per day (mbd) or 170.1 million barrels for the quarter. \nCrude oil export stood at 1.44 mbd or 129.6 million barrels for the \nquarter, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption \nremained at 0.45 mbd or 40.5 million barrels. The average price of \nNigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), declined by 27.0 \nper cent below the level in the preceding quarter. \nThe end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 8.5 per \ncent, compared with the 8.0 and 7.8 per cent recorded at the end \nof the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis \nwas 8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent in the preceding \nquarter. \nProvisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow and outflow \nthrough the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$7.51 \nbillion and US$12.35 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of \nUS$4.84 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized \ndealers amounted to US$10.54 billion, compared with US$12.74 billion \nin the preceding quarter. The average exchange rate of the naira \nvis-à-vis the US dollar at the rDAS window was N169.68 per US dollar, \ncompared with N162.33 per US dollar in the preceding quarter. \nRelative to their respective levels in the preceding quarter, the naira \ndepreciated by 14.9 and 9.9 per cent at both the bureau-de-\nchange and inter-bank segments of the market. \nThe Januray 2015 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic \nOutlook (WEO) Update projected global growth at 3.5 per cent in \n2015. This represented a downward revision of 0.3 per cent from the \nprojected level in October 2014, reflecting a reassessment of \nprospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan as well as \nweak activity in some major oil exporting countries. \nWorld crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 91.41 and \n94.09 mbd, respectively, in the first quarter of 2015. Low demand for \ncrude was attributed to weakened industrial activity and reduced \nrefinery margins in many parts of the world, while increased \nproduction majorly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq accounted for the \nincrease in global supply. The OPEC Reference Basket price of \neleven selected crude streams stood at US$50.30 per barrel in the \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 3 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nfirst quarter of 2015, compared with US$73.36/b recorded in the \npreceding quarter. The prices of the Bonny Light, UK Brent, the West \nTexas Intermediate and the Forcados, also exhibited similar trends. \nOther major international economic developments and meetings of \nimportance to the domestic economy during the review period \nincluded: the extraordinary meeting of the Committee of Governors \nof the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) held at Abuja, Nigeria \non January 22, 2015. The 24th African Union Summit held in Addis \nAbaba, Ethiopia from January 23 - 31, 2015 under the theme \n\"Women's Empowerment Year and Africa Development Towards \nAgenda 2063”. Also, the 8th Joint Annual Meetings of the African \nUnion Specialized Technical Committee on Finance, Monetary \nAffairs, Economic Planning and Integration and the ECA Conference \nof \nAfrican \nMinisters \nof \nFinance, \nPlanning \nand \nEconomic \nDevelopment took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from March 25 - \n31, 2015. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 4 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 5 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n2.0 Financial Sector Developments \n2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments \nProvisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary \naggregate decelerated at the end of the first quarter of 2015. \nDevelopments in banks’ deposit and lending rates were mixed \nduring the review quarter. The value of money market assets \noutstanding increased, due largely, to the increase in FGN Bonds. \nDevelopments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bearish. \nProvisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary \naggregate decelerated at the end of the first quarter of 2015. \nRelative to the level at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014, \nBroad money supply, (M2), quarter-on-quarter, grew by 1.1 per \ncent to N19,142.5 billion at end-March 2015, compared with \nthe growth of 12.6 and 13.0 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. The slow growth relative to the preceding quarter \nwas attributed to the the decline of 15.7 and 7.9 per cent in \nforeign assets (net) and other assets (net), respectively, which \ndampened the 10.0 per cent growth in aggrgate credit. \nNarrow money supply (M1), at N6,994.1 billion, rose by 1.1 per \ncent, at the end of the review quarter, compared with the \ngrowth of 0.9 and 8.3 per cent at the end of the preceding \nand \ncorresponding \nperiod \nof \n2014, \nrespectively. \nThe \ndevelopment, relative to the fourth quarter of 2014, was \nattributed to the increase of 2.4 and 0.7 per cent in its \ncurrency outside bank and demand deposit components, \nrespectively. \nQuasi-money rose by 1.2 per cent to N12,148.4 billion at the \nend of the first quarter of 2015, compared with the growth of \n20.6 and 16.9 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and \nthe \ncorresponding \nquarter \nof \n2014, \nrespectively. \nThe \ndevelopment was attributed to the increase in time and \nsavings deposits with banks (Fig. 1, Table 1). \nGrowth in key \nmonetary \naggregate \ndecelerated during \nQ1 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 6 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1 \n-15\n-10\n-5\n0\n5\n10\n15\n-15\n-10\n-5\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\nQ4-12\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nQuarterly (%)\nCumulative (%)\nQM1 (RHS)\nQM2 (RHS)\nCM1 (LHS)\nCM2 (LHS)\n \nAt N20,757.6 billion, aggregate banking system’s credit (net) \nto the domestic economy grew by 10.0 per cent to N20,757.6 \nbillion at the end of the first quarter of 2015, compared with \nthe growth of 17.3 and 24.5 per cent at the end of the fourth \nquarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively. \nThe development relative to the level at the end of the fourth \nquarter of 2014 reflected the growth of 187.6 and 2.6 per cent \nin net claims on the Federal Government and net credit to the \nprivate sector, respectively. \nBanking system’s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at \nthe end of the review quarter, rose by 187.6 per cent to \nnegative N2,178.4 billion, compared with the growth of 147.8 \nand 199.6 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and the \ncorresponding quarter of 2014, respectively. The development \nrelative to the fourth quarter of 2014 was due to the surge in \nbanking system’s holding of Federal Government securities, \nespecially Federal Government bonds and treasury bills, which \nincreased by 104.9 and 3.9 per cent, respectively. \nAt the end of the first quarter of 2015, banking system’s credit \n \n1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent \ncumulative changes (year-to-date). \n \nBanking system \ncredit to the \nFederal \nGovernment rose \nby 187.6 per cent \nat the end of the \nfirst quarter of \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 7 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nto the private sector grew by 2.6 per cent to N18,579.2 billion, \ncompared with the growth of 2.5 and 1.6 per cent at the end \nof the fourth quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. The development relative to the level at the end \nof the preceding quarter was attributed to the 2.6 and 1.3 per \ncent growth in claims on the core private sector and the state \nand local governments, respectively (Fig. 2, Table 1). \nFigure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2 \n-50\n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\n-50\n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nQuarterly (%)\nCumulative (%)\nQCP (RHS)\nQCG (RHS)\nQAC (RHS)\nCCP (LHS)\nCCG (LHS)\nCAC (LHS)\n \nAt N5,985.6 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system \nfell by 15.7 per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2015, \ncompared with the decline of 8.4 and 23.7 per cent at the \nend of the fourth quarter and the corresponding quarter of \n2014, respectively. The development relative to the fourth \nquarter of 2014 was attributed, largely, to the 16.2 and 11.1 \nper cent fall in foreign assets holdings by the CBN and the \ncommercial banks, respectively. \nOther assets (net) of the banking system declined by 7.9 per \ncent to negative N7,600.7 billion at the end of the review \nquarter, compared with the decline of 0.1 per cent at the \nend of the preceding quarter, but was in contrast to the 7.0 \nper cent growth recorded at the end of the corresponding \nquarter of 2014. The development was attributed to the \n \n2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to \ngovernment (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP, \nCCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date). \nForeign assets \n(net) of the \nbanking system \ndeclined at the end \nof the review \nquarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 8 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \ndecline in unclassified assets of the DMB’s during the review \nperiod. \nTable 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over \nPreceding Quarter \nJun-13\nSep-13\nDec-13\nMar-14\nJun-14\nSep-14\nDec-14\nMar-15\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n3.2\n-0.5\n11.1\n2.1\n-1.1\n7.2\n17.3\n9.9\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n0.9\n-25.5\n48.1\n2.4\n-24.8\n19.7\n-27.3\n187.6\n Claims on Private Sector\n2.8\n3.7\n0.5\n1.7\n1.1\n4.1\n2.6\n2.6\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n3.0\n3.6\n1.2\n1.9\n1.3\n4.4\n2.7\n0.8\nForeign Assets (Net)\n-5.4\n-2.6\n-3.0\n-10.6\n1.1\n-1.1\n-5.1\n-15.7\nOther Assets (Net)\n0.6\n-13.8\n-3.1\n7.9\n4.5\n-5.4\n5.4\n-7.9\nBroad Money Supply (M2)\n0.5\n-7.9\n9.2\n0.2\n1.5\n4.0\n0.1\n1.1\nQuasi-Money\n-0.9\n-6.7\n7.3\n1.8\n6.1\n6.6\n6.2\n0.1\nNarrow Money Supply (M1)\n0.0\n-9.3\n11.7\n-1.7\n-4.4\n0.4\n-8.7\n1.1\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n-17.3\n43.7\n9.5\n-9.4\n6.2\n3.3\n20.7\n-0.5\n \n2.2 \nCurrency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at \nthe CBN \nAt N1,818.4 billion, currency-in-circulation rose by 1.1 per cent \nat the end of the first quarter, compared with the increase of \n16.2 and 15.5 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and \nthe \ncorresponding \nquarter \nof \n2014, \nrespectively. \nThe \ndevelopment relative to the fourth quarter of 2014 was \nattributed, largely, to the 2.3 per cent increase in currency \noutside bank. \n \nTotal deposits at the CBN fell by 12.3 per cent to N6,867.3 \nbillion, in contrast to the increase of 10.0 per cent at the end \nof the fourth quarter of 2014. The development reflected, \nlargely, the decline of 37.1 and 24.1per cent in private sector \ndeposits and Federal Government deposits, respectively. Of \nthe total deposits, the shares of the Federal Government, \nbanks and ‘’Others’’ were N2,602.7 billion (37.9 per cent), \nN4,118.7 billion (60.0 per cent) and N145.9 billion (2.1 per \ncent), respectively. \nReserve money (RM), at N5,937.1 billion, fell by 0.5 per cent, in \ncontrast to the 20.7 per cent increase recorded at the end of \nthe fourth quarter of 2014. The development, relative to the \nlevel at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014, was attributed to \nthe decline of 1.2 per cent in its demand deposit component. \nReserve money \n(RM) fell at the \nend of the first \nquarter of 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 9 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n2.3 \nMoney Market Developments \nMajor indicators in the money market were influenced by \nliquidity condition in the review period. Short term money \nmarket rates stabilized around the Monetary Policy Rate \nalthough with some spikes due to major withdrawals, including \nthe execution of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company \n(NNPC) mandate. The market was able to achieve some level \nof stability, especially at the foreign exchange segment with \nimproved confidence by market players. Open market \noperations remained the main instrument of monetary policy \nduring the period. \nProvisional data indicated that the total value of money \nmarket assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of \n2015 stood at N8,307.5 billion, showing an increase of 8.4 per \ncent, compared with the increase of 3.5 per cent at the end \nof the fourth quarter of 2014. The development was attributed, \nlargely, to the 12.9 per cent increase in the FGN Bonds \noutstanding. \n \n2.3.1 \n Interest Rate Developments \nAvailable data indicated mixed developments in banks’ \ndeposit and lending rates during the first quarter of 2015. All \nrates on deposits of various maturities rose from a range of \n3.44 – 9.99 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 3.57 – 9.7 \nper cent in the first quarter of 2015. At 8.54 per cent, the \naverage term deposit rate fell by 0.06 percentage point \nbelow its level in the fourth quarter of 2014. The maximum and \nprime lending rates, however, rose by 0.50 and 0.56 \npercentage point to 26.30 and 16.84 per cent, respectively, \ncompared with the level at the end of the fourth quarter of \n2014. Consequently, the spread between the weighted \naverage term deposit and maximum lending rates widened \nby 0.31 percentage point to 17.52 percentage points at the \nend of the first quarter of 2015. The spread between the \naverage savings deposit and the maximum lending rates, \nalso, widened by 0.37 percentage point to 22.73 percentage \npoints, compared with 22.36 percentage point in the fourth \nquarter of 2014. With the headline inflation rate at 8.5 per cent \nat end-March 2015, most deposit and lending rates were \npositive in real terms except for the average savings and 7-\nMoney market \nrates were \nrelatively stable \nduring the review \nperiod. \nThe spread \nbetween the \nweighted – \naverage term \ndeposit and \nmaximum \nlending rates \nwidened at the \nend of the first \nquarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 10 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \ndays deposits. \nAt the interbank funds segment, the weighted average inter-\nbank call rate, which stood at 15.95 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter, fell by 0.52 percentage point to 15.43 per \ncent in the first quarter of 2015, reflecting the liquidity \ncondition in the banking system. However, the weighted \naverage rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment rose by \n2.82 percentage points to 17.61 per cent. The Nigeria Inter-\nbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) for the 7-day tenor rose to 12.16 \nper cent, above the 11.53 per cent in the preceding quarter. \nSimilarly, the 30-day tenor rose from 13.13 per cent in the \npreceding quarater to 14.90 per cent in the first quarter of \n2015 (Fig. 3, Table 2). \nFigure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)\n0.0\n2.5\n5.0\n7.5\n10.0\n12.5\n15.0\n17.5\n20.0\n22.5\n25.0\n0.0\n2.5\n5.0\n7.5\n10.0\n12.5\n15.0\n17.5\n20.0\n22.5\n25.0\n27.5\nQ4-12\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nPercent per Annum\nPercent per Annum\nPrime\nInterbank\nMaximum\nAverage Term Deposits (RHS)\n \n \nTable 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nAverage Term Deposits\n7.2\n6.6\n6.3\n6.6\n8.6\n8.6\n8.2\n8.6\n8.5\nPrime Lending\n16.4\n16.6\n16.6\n17.1\n16.9\n16.6\n16.5\n16.3\n16.8\nInterbank\n11.4\n11.7\n14.3\n10.5\n10.3\n10.6\n11.1\n16.0\n15.4\nMaximum Lending\n23.8\n24.6\n24.2\n24.9\n25.7\n25.8\n25.6\n25.8\n26.3\n \n \n2.3.2 \nCommercial Paper (CP) \nCommercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by DMBs fell by 7.5 \nper cent to N9.1 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2015, \ncompared with N9.8 billion at the end of the preceding \nquarter. The development was due to the fall in investment in \n \nInvestment in \nCP by banks fell \nin the first \nquarter of 2015. \nInterbank call \nrate fell in Q1 \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 11 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nCP by the commercial banks during the review quarter. Thus, \nCP constituted 0.11 per cent of the total value of money \nmarket assets during the review period, compared with 0.13 \nper cent at the end of the preceding quarter. \n2.3.3 \nBankers’ Acceptances (BAs) \n \nAt the end of the review quarter, the value of BAs outstanding \ndeclined by 43.3 per cent to N20.8 billion, compared with \nN36.6 billion at the end of the preceding quarter. The \ndevelopment was attributed to the decline in investment in \nBAs by the DMBs during the quarter. Consequently, BAs \naccounted for 0.25 per cent of the total value of money \nmarket assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of \n2015, compared with 0.48 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter. \n2.3.4 Open Market Operations \nIn the Open Market Operations (OMO), bills with tenors \nranging from 133 - 203 days were used for liquidity \nmanagement in the first quarter of 2015. Total sales was \nN2,057.07 billion and subscription was N2,597.12 billion. The bid \nrates ranged from 13.90 – 16.00 per cent, while the stop rates \nwere between 14.20 – 14.85 per cent. Matured bills amounting \nto N1,849.24 billion were repaid, translating to a net \nwithdrawal of N207.82 billion in the review period. \n2.3.5 \nPrimary Market \nAt the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day \ntenors were offered. Total amount offered, allotted and \nsubscribed to were N1,141.30 billion, N2,555.14 billion and \nN1,141.30 billion, respectively. At the 91-day segment, total \nsubscription and allotment were N217.98 billion and N188.21 \nbillion, respectively, with bid rates ranging from 9.00 to 15.00 \nper cent, while the stop rates were from 10.75 – 11.20 per cent. \nFor the 182-day segment, total subscription and allotment \namounted to N480.63 billion and N244.89 billion, respectively. \nThe bid rates ranged from 9.50 –16.49 per cent, while the stop \nrates were between 13.70 -14.85 per cent. At the 364-day \nsegment, total subscription and allotment were N1,856.53 \nbillion and N708.20 billion, respectively, with bid rates ranging \nfrom 10.90 – 19.98 per cent, while stop rates ranged from 14.30 \n– 15.89 per cent. \nDMBs’ holdings of \nBAs declined \nduring Q1 of \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 12 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n2.3.6 \nBonds Market \n A new tranche of 5-year FGN Bond and the existing tranches \nof FGN Bonds of 5-, 10- and 20-year tenors were reopened \nduring the review period. The total amount offered, \nsubscribed to and allotted were N258.0 billion, N372.26 billion \nand N239.50 billion, respectively. The marginal rates for the 5-\nyear bond ranged from 15.20 - 16.49 per cent, the 10-year \nbond yields range from 15.42 - 16.84 per cent, while the 20-\nyear was from 15.47-16.99 per cent to 13.10 –14.20 per cent \nfor all the tenors, compared with marginal rates between \n12.00 - 15.49 percent for all the tenors in the preceding \nquarter. \n2.3.7 \nCBN Standing Facilities \nTotal request for the standing lending facility (SLF) granted \nduring the review period was N1,644.07 billion (inclusive of \nintra-day liquidity facility converted to overnight repo), \ncompared with N1,395.97 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014 \nand N3,169.26 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. \nTotal standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review \nperiod was N4,741.61 billion, while the cost incurred stood at \nN2.26 billion, compared with the request of N10,986.01 billion \nand total cost of N4.002 billion in the preceding quarter of \n2014. \n2.4 \nDeposit Money Banks’ Activities \nAvailable data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of \nthe commercial banks stood at N28,587.23 billion at the end of \nthe first quarter of 2015, representing an increase of 4.3 per \ncent over the level at the end of the preceding quarter. Funds \nwere sourced, largely, from increase in capital accounts, \nclaims on the private sector and the central government. The \nfunds were used, mainly, for acquisition of unclassified assets, \nreduction in unclassfified liabilities and accretion to reserves. \nAt N17, 279.9 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy, \nrose by 4.38 per cent, compared with the level at the end of \nthe preceding quarter. The development was attributed to \nthe increase in claims on the Federal Government and the \nprivate sector in the review quater. \nAt 35.1 per cent, \nliquidity ratio in Q1 \n2015 was 8.4 \npercentage points \nabove the stipulated \nminimum ratio, \nwhile the Loan-to-\ndeposit ratio was \nbelow the \nprescribed \nmaximum of 80 per \ncent. \nSubscription for FGN \nBonds of various \nmaturities increased \nduring the first \nquarter of 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 13 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nCentral Bank’s credit to the commercial banks rose by 12.1 \nper cent to N288.2 billion at the end of the review quarter, \nreflecting increase in CBN loans and advances to banks over \nthe level at the end of the preceding quarter. Total specified \nliquid assets of the banks stood at N6,314.4 billion, \nrepresenting 35.1 per cent of their total current liabilities. At \nthat level, the liquidity ratio fell by 0.1 percentage point below \nthe level in the preceding quarter, but was 8.4 percentage \npoint above the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The \nloans-to-deposit ratio, at 66.2 per cent, was 2.6 percentage \npoints above the level at the end of the preceding quarter, \nbut was 13.8 percentage points below the prescribed \nmaximum ratio of 80.0 per cent. \n2.5 \nDiscount Houses’ Activities \nTotal assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N109.4 \nbillion at the end of the first quarter of 2015, indicating a \ndecline of 18.2 and 21.6 per cent below the levels at the end \nof the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of \n2014, respectively. The decline in assets relative to the level at \nthe end of the fourth quarter of 2014 was accounted for, \nmainly, by the significant fall of 25.6 per cent in claims on the \nFederal Government, which more than offset the effect of 4.3 \nper cent increase in claims on banks. Correspondingly, the \ndecline in total liabilities was attributed to the 57.4 and 46.9 \nper cent decline in capital and reserves and borrowings, \nrespectively which more than offset the effects of the increase \nin other liabilities and money-at-call . \nDiscount houses’ investment in Federal Government securities \ndeclined by 12.5 per cent to N50.4 billion and represented \n63.9 per cent of their total deposit liabilities. At this level, \ndiscount houses’ investment was 3.9 percentage points above \nthe prescribed minimum level of 60.0 per cent for fiscal 2014. \nTotal borrowings by the discount houses was N27.4 billion, \nwhile their capital and reserves stood at N13.4 billion. This \nresulted in a gearing ratio of 2:1, compared with the stipulated \nmaximum of 50:1 for the fiscal year. \n2.6 \nCapital Market Developments \n2.6.1 \nSecondary Market \nAvailable data indicated that developments in the Nigerian \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 14 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nStock Exchange (NSE) were bearish during the first quarter of \n2015. Total volume and value of traded securities fell by 10.3 \nand 11.9 per cent to 25.9 billion shares and N279.1 billion, \nrespectively, in 261,116 deals, in the review period, compared \nwith 28.9 billion shares and N316.9 billion in 279,274 deals \nrecorded in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Financial Services \nsector (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 20.6 \nbillion shares valued at N144.8 billion traded in 160,155 deals; \nthus, contributing 79.5 and 51.8 per cent to total equities \nturnover volume and value, respectively, compared with 21.8 \nbillion shares, valued at N173.2 billion in 149,100 deals \nrecorded in the preceding quarter. The banking sub-sector of \nthe financial services sector was the most active subsector \nduring the review quarter. \nFigure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities \n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\n250\n300\n350\n400\n450\n500\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\n30\n35\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nValue (N billion)\nVolume (Billion)\nVolume of traded securities (LHS)\nValue of securities (RHS)\n \n \n \nTable 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nVolume (Billion)\n31.84\n26.5\n21.8\n26.0\n28.3\n24.0\n26.8\n28.9\n25.9\nValue (N Billion)\n254.98\n336.59\n196.8\n234.0\n273.9\n298.19\n441.25\n316.99\n279.1\n \n2.6.2 \nNew Issues Market \nThere were two (2) new and five (5) supplementary listings in \nthe review month (see table 4 below). \nTable:4 New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange \nFirst Quarter 2015 \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 15 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nS/N Company\nAdditional Shares (Units)\nReasons\nListing\n1 Evans Medical Plc\n245.87 Million Ordinary shares\nRights Issue\nSupplementary\n2 Transcorp Hotels Plc\n7.6 Billion Shares\nNew\nNew\n3 Union Dicon Salt Plc\n41 million Shares \nSpecial Placement.\nSupplementary\n4 Mansard Insurance Plc0\n500 Million Shares\nShare Option Plan \nSupplementary\n5 Allan Gray Africa Fund\n43,024 Units \nMemorandum Listing\nNew\n6 Sterling Bank Plc\n7.197 Billion Ordinary Shares\nSpecail Placement\nSupplementary\n7 Lafarge Africa Plc\n1.402 Billion Ordinary shares\nScheme shares allotment\nsupplementary\n \n \n2.6.3 \nMarket Capitalization \nAggregate market capitalization for all listed securities \n(Equities and Bonds) stood at N16.3 trillion at the end of the \nreview quarter, indicating a decline of 3.7 per cent below the \nlevel in the preceding quarter. Similarly, market capitalization \nfor the listed equities fell by 6.6 per cent below the level in the \npreceding quarter to close at N10.7 trillion at the end of the \nreview quarter. Listed equities accounted for 66.0 per cent of \nthe aggregate market capitalization, compared with 68.1 per \ncent at the end of the preceding quarter. \n2.6.4 NSE All-Share Index \nThe All-Share Index, which opened at 34,657.15 at the \nbeginning of the quarter, closed at 31,744.82, representing a \ndecline of 8.4 per cent below the level at the end of \npreceding quarter. At end-March 2015, with the exception of \nthe NSE Banking and NSE AseM indices, which rose to 364.16 \nand 1,214.94 over their respective levels at the end of the \npreceding quarter, all the other five sectoral indices fell below \ntheir levels in the preceding quarter. The NSE Insurance, NSE \nConsumer Goods, NSE Oil/Gas, NSE Lotus Islamic indices and \nNSE Industrial declined by 3.4, 11.0, 0.01, 7.7, and 9.8 per cent, \nto close at 144.57, 804.55, 380.06, 2,072.21 and 1,929.46, \nrespectively, at the end of the review period. \nTotal market \ncapitalization and \nAll-Share Index \ndeclined during Q1 \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 16 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index \n -\n 5,000.00\n 10,000.00\n 15,000.00\n 20,000.00\n 25,000.00\n 30,000.00\n 35,000.00\n 40,000.00\n 45,000.00\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nIndex\nN billion\nMarket Capitalization (LHS)\nAll-Share Index (RHS)\n \nTable 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nMarket Capitalization (N trillion)\n16.40\n15.80\n17.73\n19.10\n16.10\n19.10\n18.90\n16.90\n16.30\nAll-Share Index (Equities)\n33,536.25\n \n36,164.31\n \n36,585.08\n \n41,329.19\n \n38,748.01\n \n42,482.48\n \n41,210.10\n \n34,657.15\n \n31,744.82\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 17 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n3.0 \nFiscal Operations \n3.1 \nFederation Account Operations \nAvailable data showed that total federally-collected revenue \nduring the first quarter of 2015 stood at N1,812.87 billion, \nreflecting a decline of 33.3 and 18.0 per cent, compared with \nthe levels in the provisional 2014 quarterly budget estimate3 \nand receipts in the preceding quarter, respectively. The \ndevelopment relative to the budget estimate was attributed \nto the decline in oil and non-oil revenue during the review \nperiod (Fig. 6, Table 6). \nFigure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue \n0\n500\n1000\n1500\n2000\n2500\n3000\nQ4-12\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nOil Revenue Gross\nNon-Oil Revenue\n \nTable 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nFederally-collected revenue (Gross) \n2440.76\n2365.74\n2748.74\n2204.55\n2495.74\n2613.30\n2783.46\n2210.81\n1812.87\n Oil Revenue\n1834.27\n1813.77\n1622.79\n1538.40\n1808.86\n1795.53\n1723.11\n1466.22\n1210.77\n Non-Oil Revenue\n606.48\n551.98\n1125.95\n666.15\n686.88\n817.77\n1060.30\n744.58\n602.21\n \nAt N1,210.77 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 66.8 \nper cent of the total, fell by 32.4 and 17.4 per cent below the \nprovisional 2014 quarterly budget estimate and receipts in \nthe preceding quarter, respectively. The decline in oil revenue \n \n3 2014 Approved Budget Estimate was used \nGross federally -\ncollected revenue \ndeclined by 18.0 \nper \ncent \nbelow \nthe level in the \npreceding quarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 18 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nrelative to the budget estimate was attributed, mainly, to the \nfall in receipts from PPT and Royalties, owing to the fall in \ncrude oil prices during the review quarter (Fig. 7, Table 7). \n \nFigure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components \n -\n 200\n 400\n 600\n 800\n 1,000\n 1,200\n 1,400\n 1,600\n 1,800\n 2,000\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nN billion\nOthers\nPPT/Royalties\nCrude oil/Gas Sales\n \nTable 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion) \n \n \n \n \nNon-oil receipts (gross), at N602.10 billion (33.2 per cent of the \ntotal), was below the provisional 2014 budget estimate and \nreceipts in the preceding quarter by 35.1and 19.1 per cent, \nrespectively. The decline in non-oil revenue relative to the \nprovisional budget estimate was due, largely, to the fall in \nreceipts from all the components during the review quarter \n(Fig. 8, Table8). \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\n Oil Revenue\n1834.27\n1813.77\n1622.79\n1538.40\n1808.86\n1795.53\n1723.11\n1466.22\n1210.77\n Crude oil/Gas Sales\n439.14\n403.80\n440.09\n275.93\n516.63\n577.41\n470.99\n331.18\n274.09\n PPT/Royalties\n1030.23\n973.06\n840.37\n875.30\n874.47\n838.89\n916.31\n809.89\n573.30\n Others\n380.10\n436.91\n342.33\n387.18\n417.76\n379.23\n335.81\n325.15\n363.38\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 19 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and its Components\n -\n 200\n 400\n 600\n 800\n 1,000\n 1,200\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nN billion\n Others\n Customs & Excise Duties\n Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes\n Value-Added Tax (VAT)\n \nTable 8 Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\n Non-Oil Revenue\n606.48\n551.98\n1125.95\n666.15\n686.27\n817.77\n1060.35\n744.58\n602.10\n Value-Added Tax (VAT)\n185.53\n193.64\n194.41\n222.02\n213.80\n194.15\n193.39\n192.88\n195.66\n Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes\n158.33\n183.04\n475.08\n169.07\n178.12\n404.20\n422.60\n202.38\n174.94\n Customs & Excise Duties\n109.94\n97.26\n97.44\n128.95\n121.63\n136.28\n151.53\n156.80\n138.08\n Others/1\n152.68\n78.04\n359.02\n146.11\n172.72\n83.14\n292.83\n192.52\n93.42 \n1/ Include FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation \nAccount Levies (Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies) \nOf the gross federally-collected revenue during the review \nquarter, the sum of N1,549.18 billion (net deductions and \ntransfers) was transferred to the Federation Account for \ndistribution among the three tiers of government and the \n13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government received \nN601.39 billion, while the state and local governments \nreceived N305.03 billion and N235.17 billion, respectively. The \nbalance of N126.33 billion was allocated to the 13.0% \nDerivation Fund for distribution among the oil-producing \nstates. Also, the Federal Government received N28.17 billion \nfrom the VAT Pool Account, while the state and local \ngovernments received N93.92 billion and N65.74 billion, \nrespectively. \nFurthermore, the sum of N15.63 billion, being distribution from \nExcess Crude Account was shared among the three tiers of \ngovernments as follows: Federal Government (N7.16 billion), \nState Governments (N3.63 billion), and local government \nThe \nsum \nof \nN1,549.18 billion \nout of the gross \nfederally collected \nrevenue \nwas \ndistributed among \nthe three tiers of \ngovernment \nand \n13.0% Derivation \nFund \nfor \noil \nproducing states. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 20 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n(N2.80 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N2.03 billion). \nThus, the total allocation to the three tiers of government in \nthe first quarter of 2015 amounted to N1,616.44 billion, \ncompared with the 2014 provisional quarterly budget estimate \nof N2,095.20 billion and N1,748.11 billion in the preceding \nquarter. \n3.2 \nThe Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of \nGovernment \n \n3.2.1 \nThe Federal Government \n \nAt N751.36 billion, the estimated Federal Government retained \nrevenue for the first quarter of 2015 was lower than both the \nprovisional budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding \nquarter by 29.6 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. Of this \namount, the Federal Government’s share from the Federation \nAccount, “Others”, FGN Independent Revenue, VAT and \nShare of Excess Crude Account accounted for 80.0, 12.7, 2.5, \n3.8, and 1.0 per cent, respectively (Fig. 9, Table 9). \nFigure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue \nFederation Account \n(80.0 %)\nVAT Pool\nAccount \n(3.8%)\nOthers(10.2%)\nFGN Independent \nRevenue (5.0%)\nExces Crude\nAccount (1.0 %)\n \n \n \n \n \nFederal government \nestimated \nretained \nrevenue was lower \nthan the receipts in \nthe 2014 provisional \nquarterly \nbudget \nestimate. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 21 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nTable 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nRetained Revenue\n1018.8\n941.4\n1174.4\n897.3\n912.1\n864.2\n1023.1\n839.8\n751.4\nExpenditure\n1108.9\n1266.7\n1276.7\n1533.0\n1114.8\n1193.5\n1166.6\n1171.7\n560.3\nOverall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n-90.1\n-325.3\n-102.4\n-635.7\n-202.7\n-329.4\n-143.6\n-331.9\n191.1\n \nTotal estimated expenditure for the first quarter of 2015 stood \nat N560.31 billion, indicating decline of 57.2 and 52.2 per cent, \nbelow the 2014 provisional quarterly budget estimate and the \nlevel in the preceding quarter, respectively. The development \nrelative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was \nattributed, mainly, to the fall in both the capital and recurrent \ncomponents during the period. A breakdown of the total \nexpenditure \nshowed \nthat \nthe \nrecurrent \ncomponent \naccounted for 90.7 per cent, while capital and statutory \ntransfers segments accounted for 2.3 and 7.0 per cent, \nrepectively (Fig. 10). A further breakdown of the recurrent \nexpenditure \nshowed \nthat \nthe \nnon-debt \ncomponent \naccounted for 54.0 per cent, while debt service payments \naccounted for the balance of 46.0 per cent. \nThus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted \nin a surplus of N191.05 billion, compared with the 2014 \nprovisional quarterly budget deficit of N241.05. \nFigure10: Federal Government Expenditure \n Recurrent\n Capital\n Transfers\nCapital\n(2.3%)\nTransfers\n(7.0%)\nRecurrent \n(90.7%)\n \nFiscal \noperations \nof the FG resulted \nin an estimated \nsurplus \nof \nN191.05 billion in \nQ1 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 22 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n3.2.2 \nStatutory Allocations to State Governments \n \nTotal \nallocation \nto \nstate \ngovernments \n(including \nthe \nFederation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and VAT) stood at \nN576.64 billion during the review quarter. This was 20.7 and 7.0 \nper cent lower than both the 2014 provisional budget estimate \nand the level in the preceding quarter, respectively. Further \nbreakdown showed that receipts from the Federation \nAccount was N482.72 billion (83.7 per cent), while VAT \ncontributed N93.92 billion (16.3 per cent). The share of \nFederation Account was 8.5 and 14.9 per cent lower than the \nlevels in the preceeding quarter and the corresponding \nquarter of 2014, respectively. Receipts from the VAT Pool \nAccount was 1.4 per cent higher than the level in the \npreceding quarter, but fell by 8.5 per cent below the level in \nthe corresponding period of 2014. \n3.2.3 \nStatutory Allocations to Local Government Councils \n \nProvisional allocations to local governments \nfrom the \nFederation and VAT Pool Accounts during the first quarter of \n2015 stood at N326.30 billion. This was 23.7 and 6.9 per cent \nbelow the 2014 provisional budget estimate and the level in \nthe preceding quarter, respectively. Of the total amount, \nallocation from the Federation Account was N260.56 billion \n(79.9 per cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for the \nbalance of N65.74 billion (20.1 per cent). \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 23 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n4.0 \nDomestic Economic Conditions \nThe dominant activities in the Agricultural sub-sector in the first \nquarter of 2015, were harvesting of tree crops, tending of irrigation-\nfed vegetables and preparation for the next planting season. In the \nlivestock sub-sector, migration in search of pastures dominated, \nwhile income from the livestock sales remained low due to the effect \nof insurgent activities on livestock holdings and market disruption. \nCrude oil production was estimated at 1.89 million barrels per day \n(mbd) or 170.1 million barrels for the quarter. The end-period inflation \nrate for the first quarter of 2015, on year-on-year basis, was 8.5 per \ncent, compared with 8.0 and 7.8 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. The inflation rate on a 12-month moving average basis \nwas 8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent at the end of the \npreceding quarter. \n4.1 \nAgricultural Sector \nAvailable data indicated that agricultural activities during the \nquarter remained moderate as farmers engaged in off-season \ncultivation and preparations for the next planting season. \nMajor agricultural activities in the Southern states were \nharvesting of tree crops and clearing of land for 2015 wet \nseason farming, while tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and \ncereal crops dominated in the Northern states. In the livestock \nsector, migration in search of pastures dominated. Income \nfrom livestock sales remained low, due to the effect of \ninsurgent activities on livestock holdings and market disruption. \nThe spread of the avian influenza outbreak across the country \nled to the loss of birds in 75 local government areas across the \n18 states affected by the virus. \nA total of N2,761.1 million was guaranteed to 14,473 farmers \nunder the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in \nthe first quarter of 2015. This amount was 24.5 per cent below \nthe level in the preceding quarter, but was 5.6 per cent above \nthe level in the corresponding period of 2014. A sub-sectoral \nanalysis of the amount guaranteed showed that the share of \nfood crops was N1,726.4 million (62.5 per cent) to 10,362 \nbeneficiaries and livestock got N525.7 million (19.0 per cent) to \n1,519 beneficiaries. The share of mixed crop was N244.1 million \n(8.8 per cent) to 1,243 beneficiaries, while Fisheries sub-sector \nreceived N118.4 million (4.3 per cent) for 400 beneficiaries. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 24 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n‘Others’ received N116.9 million (4.2 per cent) for 677 \nbeneficiaries. A total of N29.8 million (1.1 per cent) was \nguaranteed to 272 beneficiaries in the cash crop sub-sector. \nAnalysis by state showed that 33 states and the Federal \nCapital Territory benefited from the Scheme in the first quarter \nof 2015, with the highest and lowest sums of N314.5 million \n(11.4 per cent) and N2.3 million (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to \nEdo and Taraba States, respectively. \nAt end-March 2015, the total amount released by the CBN \nunder the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) to \nthe participating banks for disbursement stood at N274.40 \nbillion for 353 (three hundred and fifty three) projects (Table \n10). \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Table 10: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)\nS/N\nParticipating Banks\nAmt Disbursed (N billion)\nNumber of Projects/State Governments\n1\nUnited Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc\n45.8\n37\n2\nZenith Bank\n48.3\n32\n3\nFirst Bank of Nigeria Plc \n35.0\n83\n4\nUnity Bank Plc \n24.2\n25\n5\nUnion Bank Nigeria PLC\n18.2\n21\n6\nStanbic IBTC Bank \n17.3\n32\n7\nSterling Bank Plc\n15.6\n22\n8\nAccess Bank Plc\n12.6\n15\n9\nFidelity Bank Plc \n10.9\n8\n10\nSkye Bank Plc\n9.7\n7\n11\nGTBank Plc\n7.8\n10\n12\nFCMB Plc.\n7.1\n15\n13\nECOBANK\n6.4\n10\n14\nHeritage Bank Plc\n3.1\n3\n15\nDiamond Baqnk Plc\n3.7\n14\n16\nCitibank Plc\n3.0\n2\n17\nKeystone Bank \n2.1\n3\n18\nMainstreet Bank\n2.0\n1\n19\nWema Bank\n1.1\n7\n20\nEnterprise Bank\n0.5\n6\nTOTAL\n274.4\n353\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 25 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n4.2 \nIndustrial Production \nIndustrial activities showed improvement during the first \nquarter of 2015 relative to the level in the preceding quarter. \nAt 123.6 (2010=100), the estimated index of industrial \nproduction rose by 2.9 and 0.1 per cent above the levels in \nthe preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. The improved performance was attributed to \nincreased activities in the manufacturing sub-sectors. \nThe estimated index of manufacturing production, at 191.2 \n(2010=100), showed an increase of 1.2 and 1.5 per cent, \ncompared with the levels in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding \nperiod \nof \n2014, \nrespectively. \nCapacity \nutilization, at 60.5 per cent, rose by 0.2 percentage point \nabove the level in the preceding quarter. The development \nwas attributed to increased investment in the food and \nbeverages, textile and pharmaceutical sub-sectors (Fig.11). \nFigure 11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate \n55.5\n56.0\n56.5\n57.0\n57.5\n58.0\n58.5\n59.0\n59.5\n60.0\n60.5\n61.0\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nPercent\n \nAt 101.1 (2010=100), the index of mining production declined \nby 0.1 and 4.9 per cent relative to the levels attained in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively. The decline in mining production during the \nreview quarter, was accounted for by the fall in crude oil and \ngas production. \nIndustrial activities \nrose in the review \nquarter due to \nincrease activities \nin the \nmanufacturing sub-\nsector. \nActual industrial \ncapacity utilization \nrose by 0.2 \npercentage point \nduring the review \nquarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 26 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nAt 2,985 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation fell in \nthe first quarter of 2015 by 5.2 per cent, compared with the \nlevel attained in the preceding quarter. The development was \nattributed to the effect of gas pipeline vandalism across the \ncountry. \nAt 2,595 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption \ndeclined by 13.8 per cent, compared with the level attained \nin the preceding quarter. The reduction in electricity \nconsumption was attributed to the fall in power supply, \noccasioned by a decline in total power generation during the \nperiod (Fig. 12, Table 11). \nFigure 12: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100) \n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\n250\n130\n132\n134\n136\n138\n140\n142\n144\n146\n148\n150\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nIndex\nMining\nAll Sectors\nManufacturing\n \nTable 11: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nAll Sectors (1990=100)\n136.4\n138.7\n139.0\n139.2\n138.98\n139.00\n139.00\n123.60\n139.45\n Manufacturing\n106.35\n110.56\n110.87\n111.2\n108.45\n108.4\n108.4\n108.98\n191.2\n Mining\n146.19\n146.25\n147\n146.98\n147.23\n147.5\n147.5\n147.59\n101.1\nCapacity Utilization (%)\n57.39\n57.99\n58.10\n58.30\n58.00\n60.00\n59.88\n60.30\n60.50 \n4.3 \nPetroleum Sector \nNigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and \nnatural gas liquids, averaged 1.89 mbd or 170.1 million barrels \n(mb) in the review quarter. This represented a decline of 0.08 \nmbd (4.1 per cent), compared with the 1.97 mbd or 181.24 \nAverage electricity \ngeneration and \nconsumption fell \nduring the review \nquarter. \nCrude oil and natural \ngas production \ndeclined in the first \nquarter of 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 27 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nmillion barrels produced in the fourth quarter of 2014. Crude oil \nexport was estimated at 1.44 mbd or (129.6 million barrels), \nrepresenting a decline of 5.3 per cent, compared with 1.52 \nmbd or 139.84 million barrels (mb) recorded in the fourth \nquarter of 2014. The development was attributed to the \nupsurge in sabotage activities leading to pipeline vandalism, \nwhich has continued to hinder crude oil production. \nAllocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 \nmbd or 40.5 million barrels during the review quarter. \nAt an estimated average of US$56.73 per barrel, the price of \nNigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37º API), fell by \n27.0 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding \nquarter. The average prices of other competing crudes, \nnamely the U.K Brent, the Forcados and the West Texas \nIntermediate also fell to US$55.58, US$57.07 and US$47.34 per \nbarrel, compared with US$76.80, US$77.99 and US$73.21 per \nbarrel, respectively, in the preceding quarter of 2014. At \nUS$50.3 per barrel, the average price of OPEC’s basket of \neleven crude streams fell by 31.4 per cent, compared with the \naverage of US$73.36/b and US$105.98/b recorded in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively. The development was largely due to crude \ninventory build-up in the US, a strong US dollar and a slowing \noil demand growth, which has continued to put a downward \npressure on crude oil prices (Fig. 13, Table 12). \nCrude oil export \nfell in Q1 2015. \nAverage crude \noil prices, \nincluding \nNigeria’s Bony \nLight (37o API) \nfell in the \ninternational \ncrude oil \nmarket in Q1 \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 28 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices \n0\n20\n40\n60\n80\n100\n120\n0\n20\n40\n60\n80\n100\n120\n140\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nUS$ per barrel\nBonny Light\nOPEC Basket\n \n \n \nTable 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nBonny Light\n115.34\n105.24\n114.73\n113.11\n110.36\n112.23\n103.04\n77.74\n56.73\nOPEC Basket\n106.79\n100.9\n108.73\n107.67\n104.73\n105.74\n100.86\n7.36\n50.3\n \n \n4.4 \nConsumer Prices4 \nAvailable \ndata \nshowed \nthat \nthe \nall-items \ncomposite \nConsumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the first quarter of \n2015 was 168.4 (November 2009=100), representing an \nincrease of 2.4 and 8.6 per cent over the levels in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, \nrespectively. The development relative to the preceding \nquarter was driven largely by increase in the price of non-\nalcoholic beverages; housing; water; electricity, gas and other \n \n4 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria \nLiving Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH \nOctober 2010. \nThe general price \nlevel rose in Q1 2015 \non account of the \nincrease in the prices \nof food items and \nnon-alcoholic \nbeverages. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 29 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nfuel; clothing and footwear; transport; education; furnishing, \nhousehold equipment and maintenance; and health. \nThe urban all-items CPI at the end of the first quarter of 2015 \nwas 167.4 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 2.4 \nand 8.5 per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and \nthe corresponding period of 2014, respectively. Similarly, the \nrural all-items CPI, at 169.5 (November 2009=100), represented \nan increase of 2.4 and 8.4 per cent over the levels in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively (Fig. 14, Table 13). \nFigure14: Consumer Price Index \n140\n142.5\n145\n147.5\n150\n152.5\n155\n157.5\n160\n162.5\n165\n167.5\n170\n172.5\n175\n177.5\n180\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nIndex\nComposite\nUrban\nRural\n \nTable 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nComposite\n144\n146.6\n148.9\n152.3\n155.2\n158.6\n161.3\n164.4\n168.4\nUrban\n142.8\n145.5\n147.9\n151.4\n154.2\n157.6\n162.4\n163.4\n167.4\nRural\n145.3\n147.9\n150\n153.3\n156.4\n159.7\n160.3\n165.5\n169.5 \nThe inflation rate for the first quarter of 2015, on a year-on-year \nbasis, stood at 8.5 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent in the \npreceding quarter. This indicated 0.5 percentage point \nincrease above the level in the preceding quarter. The \ninflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis was \n8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent recorded in the \npreceding quarter (Fig. 15, Table 14). \nThe headline \ninflation (y-o-\ny) stood at 8.5 \nper cent in Q1 \n2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 30 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 15: Inflation Rate \n0\n2\n4\n6\n8\n10\n12\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nPercent\n12-Month Average\nYear-on-Year\n \n \nTable 14: Headline Inflation Rate (%) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\n12-Month Moving Average\n11.4\n10.4\n9.5\n8.5\n8.2\n8.0\n8.0\n8.0\n8.2\nYear-on-Year\n8.6\n8.4\n8.0\n8.0\n7.8\n8.2\n8.3\n8.0\n8.5\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 31 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n5.0 \nExternal Sector Developments \nProvisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the \nCBN in the first quarter of 2015 declined by 29.4 and 26.5 per cent \nbelow the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding \nquarter of 2014, respectively. Outflow through the Bank also fell by \n15.0 and 21.3 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter \nand the corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively. Total non-oil \nexport receipts fell by 37.5 per cent below the level in the preceding \nquarter, but was 44.3 per cent above the level in the the \ncorresponding quarter of 2014. Relative to the preceding quarter, \nthe average naira exchange rate at the rDAS vis-à-vis the US dollar, \ndepreciated by 4.3 per cent to N169.68 per dollar. At the BDC \nsegment of the market, the average naira exchange rate, at \nN209.52 vis-à-vis the dollar, also depreciated by 14.9 per cent, \nrelative to the level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, at the inter-\nbank segment, the average naira exchange rate, relative to the \npreceding quarter, depreciated to N191.00 per dollar. The gross \nexternal reserves fell by 14.3 per cent to US$29.35 billion, compared \nwith its level at the end of the preceding quarter. \n5.1 \nForeign Exchange Flows \nProvisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflows \nthrough the CBN in the first quarter of 2015 amounted to \nUS$7.51 billion, representing a decline of 29.4 and 26.5 per \ncent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2014, respectively. The development \nwas due to the fall in both its oil and non-oil components. \nForeign exchange outflow amounted to US$12.35 billion, \nshowing a decline of 15.0 and 21.3 per cent below the levels \nin the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of \n2014, respectively. The decline in outflow, relative to the \npreceding quarter, was attributed, largely, to the fall in rDAS \nutilization and other official payments. The development \nresulted in a net outflow of US$4.84 billion, compared with the \nnet outflow of US$3.89 and US$5.47 billion recorded in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively (Fig.16, Table 15). \n \n \nForeign exchange \ninflow and \noutflow through \nthe CBN declined \nby 29.4 and 15.0 \nper cent, \nresulting in a net \noutflow of \nUS$4.84 billion in \nQ1 of 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 32 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nTable 15: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nInflow\n10,304.46\n \n9,442.91\n \n11,857.35\n \n9,465.52\n \n10,221.43\n \n12,667.31\n \n13,094.23\n \n10,641.86\n \n7,514.52\n \nOutflow\n6,313.04\n \n12,542.53\n \n12,667.33\n \n10,789.61\n \n15,695.66\n \n12,806.25\n \n11,804.98\n \n14,527.35\n \n12,354.60\n \nNetflow\n3,991.42\n \n(3,099.62)\n \n(809.98)\n \n(1,324.09)\n \n(5,474.23)\n \n(138.94)\n \n1,289.25\n \n(3,885.49)\n \n(4,840.08)\n \n \n \nProvisonal data on aggregate foreign exchange flows \nthrough the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to \nUS$26.87 billion, representing a decline of 28.0 and 26.6 per \ncent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2014, respectively. The development \nwas attributed, largely, to the decline in receipts from crude \noil sales and inflow through autonomous sources. Oil sector \nreceipts, which accounted for 22.1 per cent of the total, stood \nat US$5.94 billion, compared with the US$7.64 billion and \nUS$9.82 billion recorded in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2014, respectively. \nNon-oil public sector inflow, at US$1.57 billion (5.8 per cent of \nthe total), fell by 47.7 per cent below the level in the \npreceding quarter, but was 292.8 per cent above the level in \nthe corresponding period of 2014. Autonomous inflow, which \naccounted for 72.1 per cent of the total, fell by 27.4 per cent, \ncompared with the level in the preceding quarter. \nAutonomous inflows \ninto the economy fell \nby 27.4 per cent in \nQ1 2015 . \n-10,000\n-5,000\n0\n5,000\n10,000\n15,000\n20,000\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nUS$ million\nInflow\nOutflow\nNetflow\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 33 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nAt US$12.59 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from \nthe economy fell by 15.2 and 21.4 per cent below the levels in \nthe preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively. The decline relative to the preceding quarter, \nwas accounted for, mainly, by the fall in rDAS utilization, owing \nto the closure of the rDAS window by the CBN on Feberuary \n18, 2015. Overall, a net inflow of US$14.28 billion was recorded \nin the first quarter of 2015, compared with US$22.45 billion and \nUS$20.56 \nbillion \nin \nthe \npreceding \nquarter \nand \nthe \ncorresponding period of 2014, respectively. \n5.2 \nNon-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters \nTotal non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters during the \nfirst quarter of 2015 stood at US$1,607.9 million, indicating a \ndecline of 37.5 per cent below the level in the preceding \nquarter, but was an increase of 44.3 per cent above the level \nin the corresponding period of 2014. The development, \nrelative to the preceding quarter, was attributed, mainly, to \nthe significant fall in receipts from agricultural sector and \nmanufactured products. A breakdown of the proceeds \nshowed \nthat industrial sector, manufactured products, \nagricultural products, food products and minerals earned \nUS$1,199.2 million, US$151.9 million, US$150.7 million, US$72.4 \nmillion and US$33.7 million, respectively. \nThe shares of industrial sector, manufactured products, \nagricultural sector, food products and minerals in non-oil \nexport proceeds were 74.6, 9.4, 9.4 4.5, and 2.1 per cent, \nrespectively. \n5.3 \nSectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange \n \nAvailable data indicated that the invisible sector accounted \nfor the bulk (42.2 per cent) of total foreign exchange \ndisbursed in the first quarter of 2015, followed by mineral and \noil sector (20.0 per cent). Other beneficiary sectors in a \ndescending order included: industrial sector (16.5 per cent), \nfood products (9.7 per cent), manufactured products (9.0 per \ncent), transport sector (2.1 per cent) and agricultural products \n(0.5 per cent) (Fig.17). \n. \nThe invisible \nsector accounted \nfor the bulk of \nthe total foreign \nexchange \ndisbursed during \nQ1 2015. \nTotal non-oil \nexport earnings \nby exporters fell \nduring the first \nquarter of 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 34 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange \n0.6\n2.1\n9.7\n8.8\n20.6\n16.5\n42.2\n0.8\n2.4\n7.1\n7.9\n16.0\n17.6\n48.2\n0.9\n4.0\n7.3\n8.3\n18.9\n15.5\n45.2\n0.0\n10.0\n20.0\n30.0\n40.0\n50.0\n60.0\nPercent of Total\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\n \n5.4 \nForeign Exchange Market Developments \nForeign exchange demand by the authorized dealers in the \nreview quarter was estimated at US$9.36 billion, indicating a \ndecline of 36.8 and 44.4 per cent below the levels in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively. The development, relative to the preceding \nquarter was attributed, largely, to the closure of the rDAS \nwindow of the foreign exchange market. The sum of US$10.54 \nbillion was sold by the CBN during the review quarter, \nindicating a decline of 17.3 and 26.7 per cent below the levels \nin the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of \n2014, respectively (Fig. 18, Table 16). \nFigure 18: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange \n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\n12.00\n14.00\n16.00\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nUS$ billion\nForex Sales at rDAS\nForex Demand at rDAS\nSupply of Forex to BDC\nTotal Forex Supply\n \n \n \nDemand and supply \nof foreign exchange \nby authorized dealers \nfell during Q1 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 35 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \nTable 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion) \nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nForex Sales at RDAS\n8.06\n7.07\n9.24\n7.99\n8.29\n7.06\n3.18\nForex Demand at RDAS\n8.06\n10.47\n14.65\n9.25\n10.58\n14.08\n8.47\nSupply of Forex to BDC\n1.51\n1.53\n1.68\n1.83\n0.50\n0.43\n0.89\nTotal Forex Supply(BDC and RDAS)\n10.98\n9.10\n14.40\n10.79\n10.16\n12.74\n10.54\n \nUnder the rDAS, the average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-\nvis the US dollar, at N169.68 per US dollar, depreciated by 4.3 \nand 7.3 per cent relative to the levels in the preceding quarter \nand the corresponding period of 2014, respectively. At the \nbureau-de-change segment of the market, the naira traded \nat an average of N209.52 per US dollar, indicating a \ndepreciation of 14.9 and 18.5 per cent relative to the levels in \nthe preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014, \nrespectively. Similarly, at the inter-bank segment, the naira \nexchanged at an average of N191.00 to the US dollar, \nindicating a depreciation of 9.9 and 14.8 per cent relative to \nthe levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding \nperiod of 2014, respectively (Fig. 19, Table 17). \nThe premium between the rDAS and the bureau-de-change \nrates widened to 23.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 from \n9.8 and 8.6 per cent in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2014, respectively. Simialrly, the \npremium between the rDAS and inter-bank widened to 12.6 \nper cent from 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter (Fig. 20, \nTable 17). \nThe average naira \nexchange rate vis-\nà-vis the US dollar \ndepreciated in all \nthe segments of \nthe foreign \nexchange market \nin Q1 2015. \nThe premium \nbetween the rDAS \nand the BDC rates, \nand between rDAS \nand the interbank \nwidened in the \nreview period. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 36 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nFigure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements \n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\n250\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nN/US $\nAverage wDAS/rDAS\nAverage BDC\n \n \nTable 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium \nAverage Exchange Rate (N/US$)\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nrDAS\n157.30\n157.30\n157.32\n157.32\n157.30\n157.29\n157.29\n162.33\n169.68\n BDC\n159.18\n160.12\n162.62\n167.86\n170.84\n168.08\n168.90\n178.24\n191.00\n Interbank\n157.57\n158.75\n161.43\n159.22\n162.78\n162.29\n162.39\n172.16\n209.52\nPremium (%)\n rDAS/BDC\n1.2\n1.8\n3.4\n6.7\n8.6\n6.9\n7.4\n9.8\n23.5\n RDAS/Interbank\n0.2\n0.9\n2.6\n1.2\n3.5\n3.2\n3.2\n6.1\n12.6 \n \nFigure 20: Exchange Rate Premium \n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nPer cent\nrDAS/BDC\nrDAS/Interbank\n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 37 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n5.5 \nGross External Reserves \nGross external reserves at the end of the first quarter of 2015 \nstood at US$29.36 billion, indicating a decline of 14.3 per cent, \nfrom the level recorded at the end of the preceding quarter. \nThe development was attributed, mainly, to the dwindling oil \nreceipts and demand pressure at the foreign exchange \nmarket. A breakdown of the reserves showed that CBN \nreserves stood at US$25.00 billion (85.1 per cent), Federation \nreserves, US$2.26 billion (7.7 per cent) and the Federal \nGovernment reserves, US$2.10 billion (7.2 per cent) (Fig. 21, \nTable 18). \nFigure 21: Gross External Reserves \n0\n10,000\n20,000\n30,000\n40,000\n50,000\n60,000\nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nUS$ million\n \n \nTable 18: Gross External Reserves (US$ million) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nExternal Reserves\n47,884.1\n \n44,957.0\n \n44,108.5\n \n42,847.3\n \n37,376.4\n \n37,330.0\n \n38,278.6\n \n34,241.5\n \n29,346.6\n \n \n \n \n \nGross external \nreserves fell \nduring the first \nquarter 2015. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 38 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 39 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n6.0 Global Economic Conditions \n6.1 Global Output \nThe Januray 2015 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World \nEconomic Outlook (WEO) Update projected global growth at \n3.5 per cent in 2015. This represented a downward revision of \n0.3 per cent from the projected level in October 2014, \nreflecting a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the \neuro area and Japan as well as weak activity in some major \noil exporting countries. \nGrowth in advanced economies was projected to expand by \n2.6 per cent in 2015 above the estimated growth rate of 1.8 \nper cent in 2014. Growth was projected to be driven by \ndomestic demand supported by lower oil prices and \ncontinued support from an accommodative monetary policy \nstance. However, the continuous dollar appreciation was \nprojected to reduce net exports. In the euro area, growth was \nestimated to expand by 1.2 per cent in 2015, while Japan was \nestimated to grow by 0.6 per cent in 2015. \nIn emerging market and developing economies, growth was \nprojected to remain broadly stable at 4.3 per cent in 2015. The \ndownward revision was attributed to slow growth in China and \nweak outlook in Russia. \n6.2 Global Inflation \nGlobal inflation softened recently, reflecting economic slack \nand declining crude oil prices that is slowly weakening \ncommodity \nprices. \nInflation \nin \nadvanced \neconomies \nremained low, reflecting the existence of output gaps and \nserious concern for deflation. Inflation, measured with the \npersonal consumption expenditure deflator is protracted at \n2.0 per cent in 2015 in the United States. Euro area inflation \nwas estimated at 0.9 per cent on an annual basis in 2015 as \nrecovery strengthens and output gaps slowly decline. Inflation \nin the euro area was expected to remain substantially below \nthe European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2.0 per cent target until \n2019 in view of their current policies. \nIn Japan, inflation was projected to increase gradually toward \nthe Bank’s 2.0 per cent target in the medium-term as output \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 40 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \ngap closes and inflation expectations rise. Inflation in \nemerging market and developing economies were projected \nto remain largely unchanged in 2015. The recent decline \nreflects to a large extent the softening of commodity prices, \nparticularly food commodities, which has a high weight in the \nconsumer price index baskets for these countries. \n6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices \nWorld crude oil demand was estimated at 91.41 mbd in the \nfirst quarter of 2015, representing a decline of 1.5 per cent \ncompared with the 92.78 mbd recorded in the fourth quarter \nof 2014. World crude oil supply was estimated at an average \nof 94.09 mbd, representing an increase of 0.1 per cent above \nthe level recorded in the preceding quarter. Decreased \ndemand for crude was attributed to weakened industrial \nactivity and reduced refinery margins in many parts of the \nworld, while increased production majorly from Saudi Arabia \nand Iraq accounted for the increase in global supply. \nThe average price of OPEC Reference Basket of eleven \nselected crude streams stood at US$50.30 per barrel in the first \nquarter of 2015, representing a decline of 31.4 and 52.5 per \ncent below the US$73.36/b and US$105.98/b recorded in the \nfourth and corresponding quarters of 2014, respectively. The \nUK Brent at US$55.58/b, Forcados at US$57.07/b and the West \nTexas Intermediate (WTI) at US$47.34/b, exhibited a similar \ntrend as the Bonny Light. \n6.4 \nInternational Financial Markets \nThe international stock market remained strengthened by US \naccommodative monetary policy, ECB asset repurchase \nprogramme and low global inflation. On the heels of falling oil \nprices, the US equity markets was boosted by strong consumer \ndemand, lower US oil imports and accommodative monetary \npolicy. In North America, the S&P/TSX Composite, Mexican \nBolsa and S&P 500 indices recorded increase of 1.8, 1.3 and \n0.4 per cent, respectively. \nIn South America, the Argentine Merval and Brazilian Bovespa \nindices rose by 43.6 and 2.3 per cent, respectively, while the \nColumbian IGBC General index fell by 13.8 per cent. In \nEurope, the DAX, CAC 40, MICEX and FTSE 100 indices posted \n22.0, 17.8, 16.4 and 3.2 per cent gains, respectively. In Asia, \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 41 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nChina’s Shanghai Stock Exchange-A, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and \nIndia’s BSE Sensex indices rose by 15.9, 10.1 and 1.7 per cent, \nrespectively. \nIn Asia, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continued on its record \nstimulus programme, which is adding about 80 trillion yen \n($663 billion) to the money supply every year. China’s \neconomy witnessed a rise in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), as \ninvestors largely avoided the troubled manufacturing sector \nand focused on the more resilient services industry. \nIn Africa, the South African JSE AS, Kenyan Nairobi NSE 20 and \nEgyptian EGX CSE 30 indices rose by 4.8, 2.7 and 2.3 per cent, \nrespectively, while the Nigerian All-Share Index and Ghanaian \nGSE All-Share indices fell by 8.4 and 1.8 per cent, respectively. \n6.5 Other International Economic Developments \nand Meetings \nOther major international economic developments and \nmeetings of importance to the domestic economy during the \nreview period included: an extraordinary meeting of the \nCommittee of Governors of the West African Monetary Zone \n(WAMZ) held in Abuja, Nigeria, on January 22, 2015. The \nMeeting was preceded by the Technical Committee meeting \nof the WAMZ on January 21, 2015. The Chairman and \nGovernor, Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin I. Emefiele \nconvened the meeting to consider WAMI's 2015 Budget and \nthe \nReport on the status \nof Implementation of the \nRestructuring \nof \nWAMI. \nImportant \ndecisions \nfollowing \ndeliberations at the meeting included, among others: \n \nApproval of WAMI's budget for 2015; \n \nDirective for the implementation of provident fund to \nsupport staff of WAMI; \n \nAllocation of Director positions at WAMI to Member \nCountries with two years rotation period; and \n \nApproval of the re-appointment of Director General of \nWAMI, Dr. Abwaku Englama, for another two-year period \nwith effect from February 1, 2015. \nThe 24th African Union Summit was held in Addis Ababa, \nEthiopia from January 23 to January 31, 2015, under the \ntheme, \n\"Women's \nEmpowerment \nYear \nand Africa \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 42 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \nDevelopment Towards Agenda 2063”. Following deliberations \nat the Summit, the African Development Bank (AfDB) \nexpressed \nits \nsupport \nto \nthe \nAfrican \nUnion \n(AU) \nin \nimplementing Africa’s commitments for an accelerated \nagricultural growth and transformation. The AfDB promised to \nimplement along with other partners an innovative financial \nsupport for the implementation of the AU Strategy and \nRoadmap towards the realization of the 2014 Malabo \ncommitments on agriculture and food security. \nThe 8th Joint Annual Meetings of the African Union Specialized \nTechnical Committee on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic \nPlanning and Integration and the ECA Conference of African \nMinisters of Finance, Planning and Economic Development \ntook place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from March 25 - 31, 2015. \nThe theme of the Conference was, “Implementing Agenda \n2063 - Planning, Mobilizing and Financing for Development”. \nThe 2015 edition of the Economic Report on Africa, \n“Industrializing through Trade”, was launched during the \nConference. The Report builds on the key messages of the \nprevious editions of ERA focusing on industrialization and \nstructural transformation, which further explores the question \nof how trade can serve as an instrument for accelerating \nindustrialization and structural transformation in Africa. \nFinally, the Caucus of Central Bank Governors meeting was \nheld on the sideline of the Conference of Ministers’ meeting. \nDuring the meeting, the Governors engaged in a structured \ndialogue on the identification of concrete follow-up measures \non the outcomes of the Abuja 2014 meeting. They also \ndiscussed measures that would enhance the role of African \nCentral Banks in financing industrial development for inclusive \ngrowth and sustainable development. \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 43 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n APPENDIX TABLES \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 44 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 45 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \nTable A1: Money and Credit Aggregates \n \n \n \n1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses. \n \n2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well \n as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks. \n \n \n \n \nDec-13\nMar-14\nJun-14\nSep-14\nDec-14\nJan-15\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n14535.1\n15040.7\n15349.3\n16095.6\n18872.7\n20757.6\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n-1656.3\n-1468.8\n-1434.1\n-1585.0\n757.5\n2178.4\n Central Bank (Net)\n-2289.1\n-2101.6\n-2097.3\n-2579.4\n-2534.3\n-1371.5\n Banks\n632.8\n632.8\n663.2\n994.4\n3214.4\n3453.5\n Claims on Private Sector\n16191.4\n16509.5\n16783.4\n17680.6\n18115.2\n18579.2\n Central Bank\n4599.4\n4917.5\n4905.3\n4697.8\n4851.4\n4849.2\n Banks\n11592.0\n11592.0\n11878.1\n12982.8\n13179.6\n13631.1\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n15388.7\n15707.8\n16003.1\n16930.9\n18555.2\n18012.4\n Central Bank\n4575.8\n4893.9\n4881.7\n4674.2\n4827.9\n4825.6\n Banks\n10812.9\n10813.5\n11121.4\n12256.7\n12643.2\n13087.9\n Claims on State and Local Government\n779.1\n779.1\n756.7\n726.2\n536.4\n543.2\n Central Bank\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n DMBs \n779.1\n779.1\n756.7\n726.2\n536.4\n543.2\n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n Central Bank\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n DMBs and Non Interest Banks\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\n--\nForeign Assets (Net)\n8658.6\n8513.3\n7613.1\n7751.7\n7098.1\n5985.6\n Central Bank\n7043.9\n6898.6\n5949.9\n6436.3\n6388.6\n5354.7\n DMBs and Non Interest Banks\n1614.7\n1614.7\n1663.2\n1315.4\n709.5\n630.8\nOther Assets (Net)\n-7504.8\n-7885.0\n-7262.7\n-7032.8\n-7043.1\n-7600.7\nTotal Monetary Assets (M2)\n15689.0\n15688.9\n15699.7\n16814.5\n18927.8\n19142.5\nQuasi-Money 1/\n8656.1\n8656.1\n8807.9\n9953.8\n12008.2\n12148.4\nMoney Supply (M1)\n7032.8\n7012.8\n6891.8\n6860.6\n6919.5\n6994.1\n Currency Outside Banks\n1446.7\n1447.1\n1226.6\n1242.8\n1437.4\n1471.1\n Demand Deposits 2/\n5586.2\n5565.5\n5665.2\n5617.8\n5482.2\n5523.0\nTotal Monetary Liabilities (M2)\n15689.0\n15688.9\n15699.7\n16814.5\n18927.8\n19142.5\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n4649.9\n5558.9\n5036.8\n4943.0\n5964.8\n5937.1\n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n1474.1\n1776.8\n1574.4\n1547.9\n1798.0\n1818.4\n Banks' Deposit with CBN\n1810.6\n3782.1\n3462.5\n3395.1\n4166.8\n4118.7\nN billion\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 46 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \nTable A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates) \nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n11.06\n2.05\n-1.14\n7.24\n0.21\n9.99\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n48.1\n2.36\n-24.83\n19.69\n-27.29\n187.57\n Claims on Private Sector\n-0.54\n1.66\n1.07\n4.11\n2.64\n2.56\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n-1.19\n1.89\n1.27\n4.35\n2.71\n2.6\n Claims on State and Local Government\n10.53\n-2.88\n-3.08\n-0.99\n1.11\n1.28\n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\nForeign Assets (Net)\n-3.0\n-10.6\n1.1\n-1.1\n-5.1\n-15.7\nOther Assets (Net)\n1.88\n7.89\n4.46\n-5.38\n5.38\n-7.92\nTotal Monetary Assets (M2)\n9.2\n0.2\n1.5\n4.0\n0.1\n1.1\nQuasi-Money 1/\n7.28\n1.75\n6.05\n6.56\n6.16\n1.17\nMoney Supply (M1)\n11.75\n-1.73\n-4.42\n0.44\n-8.66\n1.08\n Currency Outside Banks\n23.84\n-15.24\n-5.23\n6.96\n9.97\n2.35\n Demand Deposits 2/\n8.99\n1.79\n-4.24\n-0.89\n-12.78\n0.74\nTotal Monetary Liabilities (M2)\n9.2\n0.2\n1.5\n4.0\n0.1\n1.1\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n9.47\n-9.39\n-6.23\n3.27\n20.67\n0.46\n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n20.51\n-11.39\n-4.9\n3.42\n16.15\n1.14\n DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN\n4.34\n-8.45\n-6.83\n3.21\n22.73\n22.73\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n14.47\n2.05\n0.88\n10.74\n10.97\n9.99\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n32.5\n-2.36\n-21.89\n4.3\n-21.8\n187.57\n Claims on Private Sector\n6.86\n1.66\n2.75\n9.2\n12.08\n2.56\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n6.23\n1.89\n3.18\n10.02\n13\n2.6\n Claims on State and Local Governments\n17.01\n-2.88\n-5.86\n-6.8\n-5.77\n1.28\n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\nForeign Asset (Net)\n-4.26\n-10.57\n-9.63\n-10.47\n-15.02\n-15.7\nOther Asset (Net)\n-19.92\n-7.89\n12\n6.29\n11.33\n-7.92\nTotal Monetary Assets (M2)\n1.32\n0.20\n1.66\n7.17\n7.29\n1.13\nQuasi-Money 1/\n7.36\n1.75\n7.91\n14.99\n22.07\n1.17\nMoney Supply (M1)\n-5.23\n-1.73\n-6.07\n-2.45\n-10.89\n1.08\n Currency Outside Banks\n11.16\n-15.24\n-19.67\n-14.09\n-5.53\n2.35\n Demand Deposits 2/\n-8.72\n1.79\n-2.53\n0.57\n-12.28\n0.74\nTotal Monetary Liabilities (M2)\n1.32\n0.20\n1.66\n7.17\n7.29\n1.13\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n37.41\n-9.39\n-15\n-2.89\n17.18\n0.46\n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n8.87\n-11.39\n-15.7\n-12.86\n1.21\n1.14\n DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN\n59.87\n82.47\n-14.7\n2.45\n25.74\n25.74\nPercentage Change Over Preceding Quarter\nPercentage Change Over Preceding December\n \n1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses. \n2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of \nnon-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 47 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015 \n \n \nTable A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion) \nQ1-13\nQ2-13\nQ3-13\nQ4-13\nQ1-14\nQ2-14\nQ3-14\nQ4-14\nQ1-15\nRetained Revenue\n1018.80\n941.37\n1174.37\n897.26\n912.07\n859.20\n1023.05\n839.78\n751.36\n Federation Account\n643.79\n715.00\n769.83\n702.22\n703.72\n769.48\n765.56\n638.38\n601.39\n VAT Pool Account\n26.72\n27.88\n27.99\n31.97\n30.79\n27.96\n27.85\n27.77\n28.17\n FGN Independent Revenue\n65.03\n17.18\n150.47\n41.68\n121.13\n12.88\n133.33\n62.44\n37.86\n Excess Crude\n0.00\n70.93\n0.00\n70.90\n0.00\n0.00\n0.00\n1.27\n1.27\n Others/SURE-P\n283.26\n110.39\n226.08\n50.49\n56.44\n48.88\n96.31\n109.91\n83.93\nExpenditure\n1108.86\n1266.70\n1276.73\n1533.00\n1114.77\n981.61\n1166.60\n1171.71\n560.31\n Recurrent\n811.56\n902.83\n809.28\n1165.37\n758.07\n816.06\n818.94\n877.38\n178.07\n Capital\n218.09\n281.59\n391.55\n217.15\n272.52\n80.64\n236.82\n193.15\n12.94\n Transfers\n79.21\n82.28\n75.91\n150.47\n84.19\n84.91\n85.47\n101.18\n39.09\nOverall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n-90.07\n-325.33\n-102.36\n-635.74\n-202.70\n-122.41\n-143.55\n-331.93\n191.05 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 48 \nEconomic Report First Quarter \n2015", "source": "CBN", "stratum": "cb_requests", "fetch_date": "2026-05-11", "url": "file:///CBN/Quarterly_Economic_Reports/CBN Economic Report for First Quarter 2015.pdf"}