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+{"doc_id": "2c6bb104902bb96fb096f296072f524a", "text": "This document is for CBN internal consumption \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nCENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA \nECONOMIC REPORT \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nThird Quarter \n2024 \n \n \ni \n \n \nABOUT THE REPORT \n \nThe Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report presents economic \ndevelopments in Nigeria, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which is \npublished on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current \ndevelopments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the Nigerian \neconomy, as well as on global issues that impact the domestic economy. In \naddition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit of its mandate. \n \nThe Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists, \npolicymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors, and the \npublic. Free download of the Report, including current and past issues are \navailable from the CBN website www.cbn.gov.ng. All inquiries concerning the \nReport should be directed to the Director of Research, Central Bank of Nigeria, \nP.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nii \n \n \nContent \nABOUT THE REPORT ............................................................................. i \nSUMMARY .................................................................................... 1 \n1.0 \nGLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ................. 3 \n1.1 \nGlobal Economic Activity ........................................... 3 \n1.2 Global Inflation ......................................................... 6 \n1.3 \nGlobal Financial Markets ......................................... 9 \n1.3.1 Global Financial Conditions .................................... 9 \n1.4 \nGlobal Commodity Markets .................................... 12 \n1.5 \nMONETARY POLICY STANCE ............................... 16 \n2.0 \nDOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ............. 16 \n2.1 \nReal Sector Developments ..................................... 18 \n2.1.1 Sectoral Performance ............................................. 18 \n2.1.2 Inflation .................................................................... 22 \n2.1.3 Socio-Economic Development .............................. 18 \n2.1.4 Energy Sector and Electricity ............................... 29 \n2.1.4.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Developments ......... 29 \n2.2 \nFISCAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS....................... 33 \n2.2.1 Federation Account Operations ............................ 33 \n2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government ..... 36 \n2.3 \nMONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS .. 41 \n2.3.1 Monetary Developments......................................... 41 \n2.3.2 Sectoral Credit Utilisation ...................................... 45 \n2.3.3 Financial Developments ......................................... 46 \n2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments............................... 51 \n2.3.3.2 Capital Market Developments .............................. 51 \n2.4 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS .................... 67 \n2.4.1. Current and Capital Account ................................. 67 \n2.4.2. Financial Account……………………………………..67 \n2.4.3. External Debt…………………………………………..67 \n2.4.4. International Investment Position ......................... 67 \n2.4.5. International Reserves ........................................... 67 \n \n \niii \n \n \n2.4.6. Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy…67 \n2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement ...................................... 69 \n3.0 \nGlobal Outlook ........................................................ 70 \n3.1 \nDomestic Outlook .................................................. 71 \n \n \n \nTables \nTable 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) .... .4 \nTable 2: Selected EMEs Currency rates to united dollar............... 12 \nTable 3: Dollar-based Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major \nAgricultural Export Commodities (Jan 2010=100) ........................15 \nTable 4: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent) .............................. 17 \nTable 5:Index of Electricity Production……………………………………….30 \nTable 6: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the Three -Tiers \nof Government (₦ Billion) .......................................................... 35 \nTable 7: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion) ................................. 36 \nTable 8: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion) ............................................... 38 \nTable 9: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December .... 44 \nTable 10: Sectoral Credit Allocation ............................................ 45 \nTable 11: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices....... 54 \nTable 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian \nExchange Limited in Q32024 ...................................................... 56 \n \n \nFigures \nFigure 1: Selected Advanced Economies’ PMIs .............................. 5 \nFigure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing Economies\n .................................................................................................... 6 \nFigure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent) ...... 7 \nFigure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)............................ 8 \nFigure 5: Growth rate of Key Global Stocks (per cent)………………..10 \nFigure 6: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar ........... 12 \nFigure 7: Total World Crude Supply and Demand ....................... 13 \nFigure 8: Crude Oil prices (US$ per barrel) ………………………………….14 \nFigure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) ...............145 \nFigure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-on-Year .......................149 \n \n \niv \n \n \nFigure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP ............................. 20 \nFigure 12: Top Contributors to GDP Growth Q32024 .................. 22 \nFigure 13: Year-on-Year Headline, Food, and Core Inflation ........ 25 \nFigure 14: Inflation Pervasiveness .............................................. 23 \nFigure 15: Inflation Momentum.................................................. 27 \nFigure 16: Component Drivers of Food Inflation.......................... 28 \n \nFigure 17: Measures of Underlying Inflation ............................... 27 \nFigure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to Food \nInflation ..................................................................................... 27 \nFigure 19: Componenet Drivers of Food Inflation ........................ 27 \nFigure 20: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC quota \n(mbpd)…………………………………………………………….…………………………30 \nFigure 21: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion) ...................... 34 \nFigure 22: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion)............... 37 \nFigure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition (₦ Billion)\n ..................................................................................... ……………39 \nFigure 24: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument ... 40 \nFigure 25: Composition of External Debt Stock by Instrument…….40 \nFigure 26: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier\n ...........................................................................................………41 \nFigure 27: Growth in Reserve Money (Over Preceding December)\n ..........................................................................................……….42 \nFigure 28: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation (₦ Billion) ...... 42 \nFigure 29: Consumer Credit Outstanding .................................... 46 \nFigure 30: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window ............ 47 \nFigure 31: Open-Market-Operation ............................................ 48 \nFigure 32: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Billion) ................................ 48 \nFigure 33: Primary Auctions of FGN Bond (₦ Billion) ................... 49 \nFigure 34: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates.. .............. 50 \nFigure 35: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates .................. 50 \nFigure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index..52 \nFigure 37: Percentage share of equities market capitalisation .....52 \nFigure 38: Percentage Contribution of Total Bonds Market Value..53 \nFigure 39:Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in per cent for sectoral indicies\n .................................................................................................. 54 \nFigure 40:Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX .... 55 \nFigure 41: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion) ........................ 60 \nFigure 42: Import by Classification ............................................. 61 \nFigure 43: Share of Service Out-Payments in Per cent ................. 62 \n \n \nv \n \n \nFigure 44: Share of Services Receipts .......................................... 63 \nFigure 45: Primary Income Balance ............................................ 64 \nFigure 46: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow (US$ \nBillion) ........................................................................................ 64 \nFigure 47: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover .......... 67 \nFigure 48: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$ \nBillion) ........................................................................................ 68 \nFigure 49: Turnover in the NFEM ................................................ 69 \n \n \n1 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nSUMMARY \nIn Q32024, global economic activity decelerated driven, primarily, by a \ndownturn in the manufacturing sector. Within the Advanced Economies (AEs) \nand several Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), \neconomic performance exhibited a mixed trajectory, largely influenced by \ncountry-specific dynamics. Inflation eased across most AEs and EMDEs, the \ndrop in energy and gasoline prices. The performance of financial markets \nvaried across region, shaped, largely, by expectations of further interest rate \ncuts. The global bonds market softened in response to rate reductions by the \nFederal Reserve and other central banks. The spot price of Bonny Light crude \ndecreased to US$82.23 per barrel (pb), from US$86.97 pb in Q22024 \nreflecting the weak growth in global oil demand. Similar downward trends were \nobserved in the prices of Brent, Forcados, WTI, and OPEC Reference Basket. \nThe domestic economy grew by 3.46 per cent in Q32024, in the review quarter \ndriven, mainly, by the growth of the non-oil sector. Inflation moderated to \n32.70 per cent from 34.19 per cent in the preceding quarter driven by a fall in \nthe food component of the CPI basket, and the Bank’s restrictive policy \nstance. Domestic crude oil production rose to 1.33 million barrels per day \n(mbpd), from 1.27 mbpd in the preceding quarter, reflecting improved security \naround the pipeline infrastructure in the Niger Delta region. \nProvisional data showed an expansion in fiscal operations in Q32024, \nfollowing higher receipt from non-oil sources. Federally collected revenue rose \nby 7.48 per cent, relative to the level in Q22024, but fell short of the benchmark \nby 23.71 per cent. Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) retained revenue \nwas below the level in Q22024 and the quarterly target. Similarly, the FGN \naggregate expenditure dipped by 16.26 and 22.38 per cent below the levels \nin Q22024 and the quarterly target, respectively. Thus, the fiscal deficit \ncontracted by 22.51 per cent in Q32024, but widened by 43.88 per cent, \ncompared with the quarterly target. \nMonetary aggregates trended upwards due to increased credit to key sectors \nof the economy and the effect of exchange rate revaluation. Broad money \nsupply expanded, resulting from the growth in both net foreign assets (NFA) \n \n2 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nand net domestic assets (NDA). Key short-term interest rates were stable and \nreflected the liquidity dynamics in the banking system. Activities in the \nNigerian equities market slowed, in response to rising interest rate, reflecting \nthe preference for fixed income securities, due to its attractive yields. \nThe external sector performance showed improvement in Q32024, due to a \nhigher trade surplus and remittances inflow. The financial account recorded a \nhigher net acquisition of financial assets, driven largely by higher foreign \ncurrency and deposit holdings by residents and accretion to external reserves. \nAt US$39.29 billion, the level of external reserves could cover 8.91 months of \nimport for goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only. The average \nexchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per cent to ₦1,588.64/US$, \nfrom ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024. \n \n \n3 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n1.0 \nGLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS \nGlobal economic activity slowed in Q32024, as the decline in \nmanufacturing sectors outweighed the rise in services. Within the \nadvanced economies (AEs) and in many emerging markets and \ndeveloping economies (EMDEs), mixed patterns were observed, \nowing to country-specific factors. Inflation moderated in most AEs \nand EMDEs in Q32024, following the decline in energy and \ngasoline prices. Financial markets recorded mixed performances \nacross regions, due, largely to the anticipation of further rate cuts \nby the Fed and other central banks. The global bonds market \nslowed in the review quarter as most central banks adopted an \naccommodative policy stance, signalling the onset of policy \nnormalisation. \n1.1 \nGlobal Economic Activity \nGlobal economic activity fell in Q32024, following a decline in \nmanufacturing sector, which outweighed the rise in services \nsector. The global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) \ndecreased to 52.43 index points in Q32024 from 52.90 index points in \nQ22024, though it remained within the expansion region. The decline \nwas attributed to a fall in employment level, new business orders, new \nexport orders, future output and output prices. \n \n \n \nGlobal \nEconomic \nActivity \nSummary \n \n4 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nTable 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) \n \nQ12024 \nQ22024 \nQ32024 \nComposite (Output) \n 52.30 \n 52.90 \n 52.43 \nEmployment Level \n 50.90 \n 51.30 \n 50.40 \nNew Business Orders \n 52.10 \n 52.00 \n 51.67 \nNew Export Business Orders \n 49.80 \n 49.60 \n 48.97 \nFuture Output \n 63.80 \n 62.10 \n 61.27 \nInput Prices \n 56.60 \n 56.30 \n 56.63 \nOutput Prices \n 53.80 \n 52.80 \n 52.47 \n \n \n \n \nManufacturing \n 50.60 \n 50.90 \n 49.37 \nServices (Business Activity) \n 52.40 \n 53.10 \n 53.33 \nNew Business \n 52.50 \n 52.40 \n 52.83 \nNew Export Business \n 50.60 \n 50.60 \n 50.93 \nFuture Activity \n 64.30 \n 63.10 \n 61.87 \nEmployment \n 51.20 \n 51.50 \n 50.70 \nOutstanding Business \n 49.20 \n 50.00 \n 49.60 \nInput Prices \n 58.10 \n 56.70 \n 57.40 \nPrices Charged \n 54.70 \n 53.00 \n 52.87 \n Source: JP Morgan \n \nA mixed trend was experienced in AEs owing to country-specific \nidiosyncrasies. The PMI in the UK expanded further to 53.07 index \npoints in Q32024 from 52.30 index points in the preceding quarter, \nbuoyed by the continued rise in new orders as both services and \nmanufacturing sectors expanded. Economic activities in Japan and \nFrance moved from contraction territory, rising to 52.47 and 50.27 index \npoints in Q32024, respectively, from 49.70 and 48.80 index points in \nthe preceding quarter. In Japan, the expansion was driven by increased \nnew orders in the services sector, while activity in France was bolstered \nby the Olympic Games leading to a sharp upswing in the country's \nservices sector, especially in August 2024. At 54.30 index points, the \neconomic activity in the US expanded slowly in Q32024 relative to the \n54.80 index points in the preceding quarter, as the contraction of the \nmanufacturing sector deepened. \nEconomic \nActivity in \nAdvanced \nEconomies \n \n5 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nEconomic activity, however, contracted in Germany and Italy \ncontracted as the PMI declined to 44.37 and 49.30 index points in \nQ32024, relative to 50.40 and 51.30 index points in Q22024. In \nGermany, the contraction was attributed to a broad-based decline in \ndemand, while that of Italy was due, largely, to the decline in \nmanufacturing sector output. Canada’s PMI level declined from 47.50 \nindex points in the preceding quarter to 47.27 index points in Q32024, \non account of a fall in service sector new business. \nFigure 1: Selected Advanced Economies’ PMIs \n \nSource: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites. \n \nEconomic activity in EMDEs was also mixed during the review \nquarter. Economic activity gained momentum in Brazil as the PMI rose \nto 54.70 index points in Q32024 from 54.10 index points in the \npreceding quarter driven, largely, by the rise in services and \nmanufacturing activities as new business inflows surged. Similarly, \neconomic activities in South Africa and Russia expanded as the PMI \nrose to 50.27 and 51.13 index points in Q32024, respectively, from \n49.20 and 49.80 index points in Q22024. The expansion was supported \nby the strong growth in the services sector and a faster rise in new \norders in Russia, as well as improved demand conditions in South \nAfrica. \n52.10\n52.80\n47.70\n53.50\n51.70\n47.00\n48.30\n54.80\n52.30\n50.40\n51.30\n49.70\n47.50\n48.80\n54.30\n53.07\n44.37\n49.30\n52.47\n47.27\n50.27\n0.00\n10.00\n20.00\n30.00\n40.00\n50.00\n60.00\nUNITED\nSTATES\nUNITED\nKINGDOM\nGERMANY\nITALY\nJAPAN\nCANADA\nFRANCE\nQ1 2024\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\n50-point Threshold\nEconomic \nactivity in \nEMDEs \n \n6 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nChina and India recorded slower expansions as the PMI stood at 50.90 \nand 59.90 index points, respectively, in Q32024 from 52.80 and 60.90 \nindex points in Q22024, due to a decline in new orders from both \ndomestic and international demand in the two countries. \nPMI in Indonesia and Mexico, however, contracted to 49.13 and 48.47 \nindex points, respectively, in Q32024 from 50.70 and 51.10 index points \nin the preceding quarter. While the contraction was driven by a decline \nin factory activities in Indonesia, declines in new orders, production and \nemployment were the drivers in Mexico. In Q32024, subdued demand \nfrom international market led to the broad-based slowdown of \neconomic activity in Turkey, as the PMI contracted further to 46.43 \nindex points from 47.90 index points in the preceding quarter. \n \nFigure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing \nEconomies \n \nSource: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites. \nNote: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI. \n \n1.2 Global Inflation \n Global inflation pressure moderated in AEs, but varied across \nEMDEs in Q32024 driven, largely, by decline in energy prices. \nInflation in the US decelerated to 2.40 per cent in Q32024 from 3.00 \nper cent in the preceding quarter on account of moderation in energy \n0.00\n10.00\n20.00\n30.00\n40.00\n50.00\n60.00\n70.00\nCHINA\nINDIA\nTURKEY\nSOUTH\nAFRICA\nINDONESIA\nMEXICO\nBRAZIL\nRUSSIA\nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\n50-point Threshold\nGlobal \nInflation \n \n7 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nand transportation costs. The UK’s inflation fell to 1.70 per cent in the \nreview period from 2.00 per cent in the previous quarter eased by falling \ntransportation costs, particularly, air fares and motor fuels. Similarly, \ninflation in Germany moderated to 1.60 per cent in Q32024 from 2.20 \nper cent in the preceding quarter, decline in goods and energy costs. \nInflation in Japan moderated to 2.50 per cent in Q32024, from 2.80 per \ncent in the preceding quarter, owing to the lower prices of food, \ncommunication, furniture and household utensils. \nIn Italy and Spain inflation decelerated to 0.70 and 1.50 per cent, \nrespectively, in Q32024, from 0.80 and 3.40 per cent in the preceding \nquarter. The development followed decline in regulated energy and \ntransportation costs as the countries continued to secure new power \nsupply, following the persisting Russia-Ukraine war. France and \nCanada also recorded lower inflation to 1.10 and 1.60 per cent, \nrespectively, from 2.20 and 2.70 per cent due to a reduction in the costs \nof petroleum product and the prices of manufactured products. \nFigure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent) \n \nSource: Trading Economics \n \nInflation trends varied across EMDEs. Inflation in Indonesia declined \nto 1.84 per cent in Q32024 from 2.51 per cent in the preceding quarter, \ndriven by declines in the costs of food, transport, clothing, and \n3.70\n6.70\n4.50\n4.90\n3.00\n3.80\n5.34\n3.50\n3.00\n2.00\n2.20\n2.20\n2.80\n2.70\n0.80\n3.40\n2.40\n1.70\n1.60\n1.10\n2.50\n1.60\n0.70\n1.50\n0.00\n1.00\n2.00\n3.00\n4.00\n5.00\n6.00\n7.00\n8.00\nUNITED\nSTATES\nUNITED\nKINGDOM\nGermany\nFRANCE\nJAPAN\nCANADA\nITALY\nSPAIN\nQ3 2023\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\n \n8 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \ncommunication. Similarly, Turkey recorded a significant moderation in \ninflation to 49.38 per cent in Q32024, from 71.60 per cent in the \npreceding quarter, due to base effects and a broad easing across the \nsub-indexes. Inflation in Mexico reduced to 4.58 per cent in Q32024 \nfrom 4.98 per cent due, largely, to sustained easing of prices for food \nand non-alcoholic beverages. South Africa’s inflation fell to 3.8 per cent \nin Q32024 from 5.1 per cent in the preceding quarter, due to decrease \nin transportation cost. In Russia, inflation remained unchanged at 8.60 \nper cent as in the previous quarter, steadied by the contractionary \nmonetary policy stance. \n \nInflation in India and Brazil, however, rose to 5.49 and 4.42 per cent, \nrespectively, in Q32024 from 5.08 and 4.23 per cent in the preceding \nquarter, on account of increases in the prices of food and beverages, \nand the costs of airfares and ethanol. Similarly, China’s inflation rose to \n0.40 per cent from 0.27 per cent, due to rising food prices. \n Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent) \n \n Source: Trading Economics \n \n5.02\n2.28\n5.40\n5.19\n0.00\n4.45\n6.00\n61.53\n5.08\n2.51\n5.10\n4.23\n0.27\n4.98\n8.60\n71.60\n5.49\n1.84\n3.80\n4.42\n0.40\n4.58\n8.60\n49.38\n0.00\n20.00\n40.00\n60.00\n80.00\nINDIA\nINDONESIA\nSOUTH\nAFRICA\nBRAZIL\nCHINA\nMEXICO\nRUSSIA\nTURKEY\nQ3 2023\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\n \n9 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n1.3 \nGlobal Financial Markets \n1.3.1 Global Financial Conditions \nThe performance of financial markets varied across regions in \nQ32024 due, largely, to the moderation in inflation and the \nanticipation of further rate cuts. Stock markets in AEs remained \nresilient supported by strong sustained optimism around artificial \nintelligence (AI), moderating inflation pressures, and the anticipated \nrate cuts by most central banks. \nThe EURO STOXX rebounded by 11.33 per cent, reflecting a recovery \nfrom previous stock selloffs, owing to improved economic conditions \nand rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Similarly, German \nDAX delivered a 5.85 per cent return to investors. There were \nexpansions in the Italian FTSE MIB (2.93%), France CAC 40 (2.76%) \nand UK FTSE 100 (0.89%) for Q32024. The US stock market also \nrallied on the back of optimism about the tech-sector of the economy, \nespecially around artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and \nbiotech industries. The 50-basis points rate cut by the US Fed further \nstrengthened the equities market, particularly, the US Dow Jones which \ngrew by 8.21 per cent, S&P 500, 5.53 per cent, and NASDAQ 100, 1.92 \nper cent. The Japanese TOPIX and NIKKEI indexes, however, fell by \n5.83 and 4.20 per cent due, largely, to the unexpected 15 basis points \nhike by the Bank of Japan as it transitioned from a long-standing ultra-\nloose monetary stance in efforts to stimulate growth. \nThe performance of equities in EMDE’s also varied. South African \nJALSH grew by 9.51 per cent buoyed by a market-friendly election \noutcome. The Chinese SZI grew by 19.00 per cent, following \ngovernment’s promise of an aggressive stimulus plan, which included \nrate cuts and support for the struggling real estate sector. Similarly, \nIndian BSE SENSEX and Brazilian BOVESPA appreciated by 6.66 and \n \n10 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n6.38 per cent, respectively, owing to positive investor sentiments in the \nmarket. \nRussian MOEX, however, declined by 9.26 per cent in Q32024, on \naccount of downturns in the energy and mining sectors, amid \ngeopolitical and economic challenges. \n \nFigure 5: Growth rate of Key Global Stocks (per cent) \n \nSource: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics \n \nBond yields fell across AEs and EMDEs, following monetary \npolicy normalisation by most central banks on the heels of falling \ninflation. In the US and Canada, the 10-year bond yield fell to 3.79 and \n2.96 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 compared with 4.34 and 3.51 \nper cent in the preceding quarter, following investors’ expectation of \nmonetary easing in both countries. Similarly, the 10-year bond yield in \nthe UK and Euro area declined to 4.01 and 2.13 per cent, respectively, \nin Q32024 relative to 4.18 and 2.49 per cent in the preceding quarter in \nresponse to lower-than-expected inflation outcome and falling policy \nrates which strengthened the expectation of further interest rate cuts by \nBoE and ECB. The 10-year bond yield in Japan and Italy also fell to \n0.86 and 3.47 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 from 1.05 and 4.07 per \ncent in Q22024. The fall in the Japan’s and Italy’s bond yield was \n-6.00\n-1.00\n4.00\n9.00\n14.00\n19.00\nUS-S&P 500\nUS-Dow Jones\nUS-Nasdaq-100\nUK-FTSE-100\nFance-CAC-40\nItaly-FTSE MIB\nJapan-Nikkei\nGermany-DAX\nEuro Area-Euro stoxx 50\nJapan-Topix\nBrazil-Bovespa\nMexico-MEXBOL\nSouth Africa-JALSH\nIndia-BSE Sansex\nChina-SZI\nRussia-Moscow Exchange\n2024Q2\n2024Q3\n \n11 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nsupported \nby \ninvestors’ \nweariness \ndue \nto \nmonetary \npolicy \nnormalisation. \nIn EMDEs, bond yield in India, Indonesia and Mexico declined to 6.75, \n6.46, and 9.35 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 relative to 7.01, 7.05, \nand 9.83 per cent in the preceding quarter. The decline was attributed \nto softening labour market, amidst moderating inflation. Similarly, bond \nyield declined in South Africa to 8.85 per cent in Q32024 from 9.99 per \ncent in Q22024, following strong investors’ appetite for equities as gains \nin resource-linked sectors continued. Bond yield in Russia also fell to \n14.30 per cent from 15.11 per cent in the preceding quarter, amidst \ngeopolitical concerns, which dampened investors’ confidence. Yield, \nhowever, rose in Turkey to 26.63 per cent in Q32024 from 26.52 per \ncent in the preceding quarter, due to expectations of further interest rate \nhike as inflation remained elevated. \n \nThe Chinese, Russian rubble, and the South African rand appreciated \nby 0.67, 3.34, and 1.78 per cent, respectively, while the Nigerian naira \ndepreciated by 12.78 per cent against the US dollar, compared to their \nlevels in the preceding quarter. The appreciation of these currencies in \nQ32024 reflected de-dollarization efforts by BRICS, sanctions driving \nRussia toward RMB use, and supportive economic policies in China \nand South Africa. \nEmerging Market \nCurrencies \n \n12 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 6: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar \n \nSources: Central Bank Nigeria and Reuters \n \n \nTable 2: Selected EMDEs Currency Rates to the US dollar \nSources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters \n \n \n1.4 Global Commodity Markets \nThe global crude oil market recorded an uptick in Q32024, due to by \nincreased supply from the US and Canada, as well as a marginal rise in \ndemand. The total crude oil supply, including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), \nincreased slightly by 0.02 per cent to 102.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) in \nQ32024, from 102.46 mbpd in the preceding quarter. This growth followed the \nhigher production in Canada, due to increased capital expenditures by oil \n-40.00\n-30.00\n-20.00\n-10.00\n0.00\n10.00\n20.00\nQ3 2023\nQ4 2023\nQ1 2024\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\nDepreciation/Appreciation\nChinese RMB\nNigerian Naira\nSouth African Rand\nRussian Ruble\nPeriod \nChinese \nRMB \nNigerian \nnaira \nSouth \nAfrican \nrand \nRussian \nrubble \nQ32023 \n7.24 \n764.82 \n18.64 \n94.37 \nQ22024 \n7.21 \n1385.96 \n18.57 \n90.78 \nQ32024 \n7.16 \n1588.64 \n17.97 \n89.19 \nWorld Crude \nSupply and \nDemand \n \n13 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \ncompanies in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In addition, the resumption of the \nTerra Nova offshore oil field in Newfoundland and Labrador, which had been \noffline since 2019, contributed to the production boost. \nNon-OPEC supply rose marginally by 0.28 per cent to 70.57 mbpd in Q32024 \ncompared with 70.37 mbpd in the previous quarter due, to increased output in \nCanada. OPEC supply, however, fell by 0.59 per cent to 31.90 mbpd in Q32024, \nfrom 32.09 mbpd in the previous quarter, following reduced supplies from Libya, \nIraq, Gabon, Kuwait and Congo. \nAnalysis of the demand side showed a marginal 0.12 per cent increase to \n103.25 mbpd in Q32024 compared with 103.13 mbpd in the preceding quarter \nas demand for natural gas and other liquids increased. The increase reflected \nthe rising demand for jet fuel and gasoline, following a spike in passenger \ntravels during the summer season, especially in the US. \n \nFigure 7: Total World Crude Supply and Demand \n \nSource: Energy Information Administration \n \nCrude oil spot prices decreased in Q32024 driven, mainly, by the increase \nin global oil demand, despite supply disruptions in the Middle East. The \naverage spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, Bonny Light, fell by 5.45 per \ncent to US$82.23 per barrel (pb) in Q32024, from US$86.97 pb in the previous \n90.00\n95.00\n100.00\n105.00\nmbpd \nWorld Supply\nWorld Demand\nCrude Oil \nPrices\n \n14 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nquarter. Similar downward trends were observed in the prices of Brent \n(US$81.66 pb), Forcados (US$83.55 pb), West Texas Intermediate (US$77.11 \npb), and the OPEC Reference Basket (US$78.96 pb). \n \nFigure 8: Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel) \n \nSource: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters) \n \nIn Q32024, the average spot prices of gold and silver increased, while \nplatinum and palladium declined. The average spot price of gold rose by 5.94 \nper cent to US$2,476.23 per ounce from US$2,337.47 per ounce in the previous \nquarter. The price of silver increased by 2.14 per cent to US$29.48 per ounce, \nrelative to US$28.86 per ounce in the preceding quarter. The price increases \nwere driven by expectations of further monetary policy easing and lower \nopportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. \nThe spot price of platinum and palladium, however, fell by 1.86 and 0.48 per \ncent to US$959.91 per ounce and US$966.23 per ounce, respectively, in \nQ32024, from US$978.09 per ounce and US$970.95 per ounce in the previous \nquarter. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the price of \nplatinum dropped due to a decline in refined production in South Africa, \nZimbabwe, Russia, and North America. The decline in the price of palladium \nwas attributed to low demand, resulting from a gradual shift by car \nmanufacturers from internal combustion engines (ICE) to battery electric \nvehicles (BEV). \n70.00\n90.00\n110.00\n130.00\nQ1\n2022\nQ2\n2022\nQ3\n2022\nQ4\n2022\nQ1\n2023\nQ2\n2023\nQ3\n2023\nQ4\n2023\nQ1\n2024\nQ2\n2024\nQ3\n2024\nBonny Light\nBrent\nForcados\nWTI\nOpec Basket\nOther Mineral \nCommodities \n \n15 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) \n \nSource: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters) \n \nPrices of most global agricultural commodities monitored \ndeclined, due to favourable supply conditions amidst pessimistic \ndemand. The all-commodity price index declined by 3.06 per cent to \n144.34 points in the third quarter of 2024, from the 148.89 points in the \npreceding quarter. The decrease was driven, largely, by a 19.80 and \n12.86 per cent decline in the prices of cocoa and soya beans, \nrespectively. In addition, there was a notable decline in the prices of \ngroundnuts (7.51%), cotton (6.23%), and wheat (5.62%). The decline \nin the prices was due, largely, to improved supply amidst lower \ndemand. The prices of coffee, palm oil and rubber, however, increased \nby 15.78, 5.36, and 4.30 per cent, respectively, on account of supply \nconstraints, driven by adverse weather conditions. \n \n \n \n \n \n5.94\n2.15\n-1.86\n-0.49\n28.55\n25.13\n3.50\n-22.68\n-30.00\n-20.00\n-10.00\n0.00\n10.00\n20.00\n30.00\n40.00\nGold\nSilver\nPlatinum\nPalladium\nWith corresponding quarter\nWith preceding quarter\nAgricultural \nCommodity \nPrices \n \n16 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \nTable 3: Dollar-based Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's \nMajor Agricultural Export Commodities (Jan 2010=100) \nCOMMODITY \nQ32023 \nQ22024 \nQ32024 \n% Change \n(1) & (3) \n(2) & (3) \n \n1 \n2 \n3 \n4 \n5 \nAll Commodities \n127.16 \n148.89 \n144.34 \n13.51 \n-3.06 \nCocoa \n98.89 \n241.59 \n193.76 \n95.93 \n-19.80 \nCotton \n123.63 \n111.92 \n104.95 \n-15.11 \n-6.23 \nCoffee \n178.89 \n275.73 \n319.24 \n78.46 \n15.78 \nWheat \n161.70 \n137.06 \n129.36 \n-20.00 \n-5.62 \nRubber \n44.01 \n55.71 \n58.11 \n32.04 \n4.30 \nGroundnut \n166.60 \n151.42 \n140.05 \n-15.94 \n-7.51 \nPalm Oil \n103.06 \n107.06 \n112.79 \n9.44 \n5.36 \nSoya Beans \n140.47 \n110.68 \n96.44 \n-31.34 \n-12.86 \nSource: World Bank Pink Sheet \n \n \n1.5 \nMONETARY POLICY STANCE \nMost central banks adopted an accommodative policy stance in \nQ32024, signalling the onset of policy normalisation. The US Fed \ncut rates by 50.00 basis points to between 4.75 and 5.00 per cent due \nto a sustained moderation in inflation towards the target. Similarly, the \nBank of England reduced rate by 25.00 basis points to 5.00 per cent, \non account of sustained reduction of inflation pressure. The same vein, \nthe Bank of Canada and the ECB, lowered rates by 70.00 and 60.00 \nbasis points to 4.25 and 3.65 per cent, respectively. The Bank of Japan, \nhowever, raised its rate to 0.25 per cent in Q32024 from 0.10 per cent \nin the preceding quarter, due to price pressures. \nMost emerging economies also adopted accommodative policy stance \ndue to sustained moderation in inflation pressure. The Bank of Mexico \nand the Reserve Bank of South Africa lowered rates by 50.00 and 25.00 \nbasis points to 10.50 and 8.00 per cent in Q32024. China cut rate to \n \n17 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n3.35 per cent in Q32024 from 3.45 per cent in Q22024 to bolster the \nfragile economic recovery. In India and Turkey, rates were retained at \n6.50 and 50.00 per cent, respectively in Q32024. In contrast, Russia, \nhiked policy rate by 300 basis points to 19.00 per cent in Q32024 from \n16.00 per cent in the preceding quarter, on account of rising inflation. \nThe Bank of Brazil likewise raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to \n10.75 per cent in Q32024 from 10.50 per cent in Q22024. \n Table 4: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent) \nCountry \nQ42023 \nQ12024 \nQ22024 \nQ32024 \nUS \n5.25-5.50 \n5.25-5.50 \n5.25-5.50 \n4.75-5.00 \nCanada \n5.00 \n5.00 \n5.00 \n4.25 \nEuro Area \n4.50 \n4.50 \n4.25 \n3.65 \nUnited Kingdom \n5.25 \n5.25 \n5.25 \n5.00 \nJapan \n-0.10 \n0.00-0.10 \n0.10 \n0.25 \nBrazil \n11.25 \n10.75 \n10.50 \n10.75 \nRussia \n16.00 \n16.00 \n16.00 \n19.00 \nIndia \n6.50 \n6.50 \n6.50 \n6.50 \nChina \n3.45 \n3.45 \n3.45 \n3.35 \nSouth Africa \n8.25 \n8.25 \n8.25 \n8.00 \nMexico \n11.25 \n11.00 \n11.00 \n10.50 \nIndonesia \n6.00 \n6.00 \n6.25 \n6.00 \nTurkey \n42.50 \n50.00 \n50.00 \n50.00 \n Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n18 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.0 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS \n2.1 \nReal Sector Developments \n \nThe economy grew by 3.46 per cent in Q32024, with output \nreaching ₦20.115 trillion, up from 3.19 per cent (₦18.285 trillion) in \nQ2 2024, driven mainly by the non-oil sector. Inflation moderated \nduring the quarter, reflecting the fall in the food component of the \nCPI basket, and driven by the restrictive monetary policy stance. \nDomestic crude oil production increased, following enhanced \nsecurity measures around oil pipeline infrastructure in the Niger \nDelta region. \nDespite persisting headwinds, the economy continued to expand in the \nthird quarter of 2024. The growth of 3.46 per cent recorded in Q32024, \nrepresented the third consecutive expansion year-to-date surpassing \nthe 3.19 per cent and 2.54 per cent recorded in Q22024 and \ncorresponding quarter of 2023, respectively. Growth was on account of \ncontinued efforts to improve the business environment, streamline \ncumbersome business processes and deepen the quality of business \ninfrastructure. The 24-month window period opened for the banking \nsector re-capitaliisation (according to their license category and \nauthorisation) supported the robust growth in the services sector, \nparticularly, the finance and insurance sub-sector. \nThe continued drive of the government to improve crude oil production \nto a target of 2mbpd by year-end of 2024, helped the oil sector to \nmaintain a positive growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Thus, the \noil sector grew by 5.17 per cent (year-on-year) in Q32024, compared \nwith a growth of 10.15 per cent in the preceding quarter, and contributed \n0.28 percentage point to the overall growth in the period under review. \nThe performance was slower compared to the preceding quarter, owing \nto a drop in prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude in the international \nSummary \nDomestic \nOutput \n \n19 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nmarket, to US$82.07/b from US$86.92/b in Q22024. However, with the \nincrease in crude oil production from 1.27mbpd in Q22024 to 1.33mbpd \nin Q32024, the sector maintained a positive contribution to overall \ngrowth. \nThe non-oil sector growth accelerated to 3.37 per cent in Q32024 \ncompared with a growth rate of 2.80 per cent in the preceding quarter, \ncontributing 3.18 percentage points to total growth. The expansion of \nthe non-oil sector was driven by the performance of the financial & \ninsurance, information & communication, crop production, trade, \ntransportation & storage, and real estate sub-sectors. \nFigure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-on-Year\n \nSource: National Bureau of Statistic \n \n \n \n2.1.1 Sectoral Performance \nAll the sectors, (agriculture, industry and services) grew in \nQ32024. The Services sector expanded at the fastest pace by 5.19 per \ncent in Q32024, compared with 3.79 per cent in Q22024 and 3.99 per \ncent in Q32023, remaining the most dominant sector, and accounting \nfor 53.58 per cent of aggregate GDP. \n \n-22.67\n-30\n-25\n-20\n-15\n-10\n-5\n0\n5\n10\n15\nPer\ncent \nOil GDP\nNon-oil GDP\nTotal GDP\n \n20 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP \n \nSource: National Bureau of Statistics \n \nWithin the services sector, financial & insurance sub-sector grew by \n30.83 per cent, compared with 28.79 and 28.21 per cent in the \npreceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, respectively. This \nperformance was spurred by gains from the recapitalisation exercise \nthat was announced by the CBN. Other factors such as profits from \ninterest gains (following continued hike in interest rates), consultancy \nfees, and ATM & transfer fees contributed to the growth of the sub-\nsector. Also, given the financial sector's ongoing digital transformation \n(including the significant growth of fintech companies, mobile banking, \nand digital payment systems), the information and communications \nsubsector grew by 5.92 per cent (contributing 0.95pp to GDP growth). \nThe performance of the ICT sub-sector was further boosted by the \nongoing demand for digital services like e-commerce and data/internet \nservices, which helped to grow economic activity in the other sub-\nsectors like trade and real estate 0.65 and 0.68 per cent, respectively. \n \nThe transport and storage sub-sector grew by 12.15 per cent, \ncompared with contractions of 13.53 and 35.85 per cent in the \npreceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, respectively. The \ngrowth was driven by the increase in road transport owing to improved \n1.22\n3.58\n3.16\n1.20\n1.34\n2.05\n-0.90\n1.50\n1.30\n2.10\n0.18\n1.41\n1.14\n-1.63\n-0.05\n-6.81\n-2.30\n-8.00\n-0.94\n0.31\n-1.94\n0.46\n3.86\n2.19\n3.53\n2.18\n8.41\n5.58\n7.45\n6.70\n7.01\n5.69\n4.35\n4.42\n3.99\n3.98\n4.32\n3.79\n5.19\n-10.00\n-8.00\n-6.00\n-4.00\n-2.00\n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\nPer cent\nAgriculture\nIndustry\nServices\nTotal GDP\n \n21 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nsecurity conditions and substitution from air transport (due to higher air \nfares). Also, sustained investments in road infrastructure, as well as \ninvestments in alternative source of energy (CNG) for road transport \ncontributed to the uptick in the sub-sector. \n \nThe agriculture sector grew modestly by 1.14 per cent, compared with \n1.41 and 1.30 per cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of \n2023, respectively. The growth was driven by the favourable weather \nconditions and increased harvests of some staples. Crop production \ngrew by 1.18 per cent, compared with1.65 per cent in Q22024, while \nthe forestry and livestock sub-sectors grew by 2.23 and 1.03 per cent, \nrespectively, compared with a growth of 2.77 per cent and a \ncontraction of 1.71 per cent in Q22024. The fishing sub-sector, \nhowever, contracted by 1.91 per cent, against a growth of 0.38 per \ncent in the preceding quarter. \nThe industry sector maintained a positive trajectory, growing by 2.18 \nper cent in Q32024, compared with 3.53 and 0.46 per cent in Q22024 \nand Q32023, respectively. This slower growth reflected in the \nIndustrial Production Index (IPI), which grew by 2.04 per cent (year-\non-year) in Q32024, compared with 4.13 per cent in the preceding \nquarter. Sustained efforts by the government, however, to improved \ncrude oil production (to 1.33mbpd in Q32024 from 1.27 mbpd in \nQ22024), contributed to the sector’s growth outcome in the period \nunder review. The increased production was on account of improved \nsecurity in the oil producing region. Modest performances were \nrecorded in the mining & quarrying sub-sectors with a growth of 3.27 \nper cent compared with 7.79 per cent and a contraction of 1.96 per \ncent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, \nrespectively. \nThe industry sector, less oil, grew by 0.87 per cent compared with 0.85 \nand 1.04 per cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of \n \n22 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2023, respectively. Growth reflected the sustained gains in water \nsupply (9.78%), sewerage waste management (3.23%); milder \nexpansions in electricity, construction (2.91%), and manufacturing \n(0.92%) activities, with growth rates, respectively. However, marked \ncontraction was observed in the mining and quarrying subsector which \nshrunk by 61.36 per cent compared with 45.89 and 29.01 per cent \ncontractions in the preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, \nrespectively. This reflected the continued poor performance of \nquarrying & other minerals and coal mining despite modest \nimprovements in metal ores-related activities. \n \nFigure 12: Top Contributors to GDP Growth Q32024\n \nSource: National Bureau of Statistics \nNote: Growth rates are in parenthesis \n \n \n2.1.2 Inflation \nInflation moderated in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a fall in \nthe food component of the CPI basket, and the impact of the \nBank’s restrictive policy stance. The headline inflation (y-o-y) \ndeclined to 32.70 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, from 34.19 per \ncent in the previous quarter. This, however, was higher than the 26.72 \nper cent in the corresponding quarter of 2023. \n0.04\n0.04\n0.04\n0.05\n0.08\n0.10\n0.10\n0.10\n0.18\n0.32\n0.95\n1.34\n(2.29) Education\n(0.68) Real Estate\n(1.36) Professional,…\n(2.53) Public Administration\n(0.92) Manufacturing\n(2.91) Construction\n(0.65) Trade\n(12.15) Transportation and…\n(3.27) Mining and Quarrying\n(1.18) Crop Production\n(5.92) Information and…\n(30.83) Financial and…\nHeadline \nInflation \n \n \n23 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n \nFigure 13: Year-on-Year Headline, Food and Core Inflation \n \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \nInflation remained broadly distributed across the components of the CPI \nbasket during the review quarter, as statistical evidence showed a slight \ndecrease in its pervasiveness. Specifically, 70.14 per cent of items in \nthe CPI basket exceeded the historical average of 14.60 per cent \n(2010-2024) compared with 70.15 per cent in the preceding quarter1 \n \n1 The historical average was adjusted in August 2024 to 14.60 per cent (2010-2024), from 14.18 per cent (2010-2023) in the \npreceding months to reflect recent reality, given the base period. \n \n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\n35.00\n40.00\n45.00\nPer cent)\nHeadline\nCore\nFood\nInflation \nPervasiveness \n \n24 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 14: Inflation Pervasiveness2 \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \nInflation momentum slowed in Q32024, reflecting the decline in \nheadline and food inflation. Momentum slowed by 1.50 percentage \npoints in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.99 \npercentage point in the preceding quarter. \nFigure 15: Inflation Momentum3\n \n \n2 Pervasiveness is measured by the number of headline CPI items that are within specific inflation range. It reflects the extent to \nwhich rising prices are affecting the cost of living. Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been high, with average inflation of 13.10 per \ncent from 1996–2023. Inflation is said to be more pervasive if there is a higher number of items registering inflation above the \nhistorical average. The CPI items are therfore categorised into four groups namely; percentage of items registering inflation of less \nthan 4.99 per cent, between 5 per cent and 9.99 per cent, between 10 per cent and 13.10 per cent, and also inflation above 13.10 \nper cent. \n3 Inflation Momenta is measured by taking the CPI for December end period of every year as the base period to calculate the year-\nto-date inflation. The annualized or inflation momentum is then gotten by dividing the year-to-date inflation of the current period by \nthe figure that stands for each of the 12 months (e.g: 1=January, 3=March, 9=September, or 11=November etc). \n0.00\n40.00\n80.00\n120.00\nPer cent \nMonthly\nAnnual\n< 5.99%\n6-10.99%\n11-14.60%\n> 14.60%\n0.7\n0.75\n3.93\n2.21\n4.28\n0.99\n-1.50\n-2\n-1\n0\n1\n2\n3\n4\n5\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nInflation Momentum (%)\nInflation momentum\nInflation \nMomentum \n \n25 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \n \nCore inflation (excluding farm produce and energy) was nearly steady \nat 27.43 per cent in Q32024, compared with 27.40 per cent in Q22024. \nDespite the relative stability, higher manufacturing input costs and \nforeign exchange constraints continued to exert upward pressure on \ncore inflation. Further analysis of the core inflation drivers revealed that \nfish & seafood (3.72 pp), actual & input rentals for housing (3.55 pp), \nmeat (3.30 pp), oil & fats (2.71 pp), and clothing & footwear (2.27 pp), \naccounted for the slight uptick. \nFigure 16: Component Drivers of Core Inflation \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \nAlthough underlying inflation remained elevated across all measures, \nthe trend in trimmed mean and median measures rose at a slower pace \ncompared with the core inflation measure in the review quarter.4 The \n \n4 Core inflation: measure of underlying inflation defined as headline less farm produce less energy prices. \nTrimmed Mean: measure of underlying inflation derived using the average rate of inflation after trimming \naway a certain percentage of the distribution of price changes outliers at both ends of that distribution. \n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nMeat\nFish & Sea Food\nMilk,Cheese & Eggs\nOil & Fats\nSugar,Jam,Honey,etc\nBREAD UNSLICED 500g\nCABIN BISCUIT: LOCAL MANUFACTURE 800g PACK\nEKO(AGIDI/KAFA)\nGARI WHITE,SOLD LOOSE\nGARI YELLOW,SOLD LOOSE\nMAIZE PASTE-WHITE(OGI/AKAMU)\nPLANTAIN FLOUR\nYAM FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE\nNon-Alcoholic Beverages\nAlcoholic Bev. Tobacco & Kola\nClothing & footwear\nActual and imputed rentals for housing\nFurnishings, Household Equip &HH Maint.\nHealth\nVehicle Spare Parts\nPassenger transport by road\nEducation\nRestaurant & Hotels\nMiscellaneous Goods & Services\nOTHERS\nCore Inflation\nCore \nmeasures of \nunderlying \nInflation \nTrimmed \nMean and \nMedian \nmeasures \n \n26 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \ncore measure of underlying inflation was 7.46 percentage points higher \nthan the trimmed mean measure and 7.51 percentage points above the \ntrimmed median. This indicates that more items were volatile and were \nexcluded from the trimmed measures of underlying inflation. Thus, \nfourteen items (20% of the CPI basket) were excluded from the core \ncomponent, seven apiece from the lower and upper bands. For the \nlower band the contributions were telephone & telefax services (1.26 \npp), telephone & telefax equipment (2.20 pp), passenger transport by \nsea & inland waterway (4.53 pp), motorcycles (4.94 pp), musical \ninstrument (5.10 pp), motor cars (5.56 pp), and water supply (5.94 pp). \nThe upper band contributors included, actual & imputed rentals for \nhousing (36.68 pp), oils & fats (37.22 pp), coffee, tea & cocoa (37.27 \npp), tobacco gas (37.90 pp), potatoes, yam & other tubers (41.15 pp), \nand bread & cereals (41.92 pp) were excluded. \nFigure 17: Measures of Underlying Inflation \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \n \nFood inflation declined to 37.77 per cent (y-o-y) in Q32024, from 40.87 \nper cent in the previous quarter, driven by increased supply of farm \nproduce and processed food items. The development was attributed to \n \nTrimmed Median: measure of underlying inflation derived by obtaining median values from inflation of \nCPI components. \n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nCore inflation\n Trimmed Median\n20% Trimmed Mean\nFood \nInflation \n \n27 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nthe growing impact of government policies aimed at addressing food \nshortages, including expanded credit for domestic agricultural \nproduction and the easing of restrictions on some food imports. \n \n \nFigure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to \nfood Inflation \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \nThere was a marginal decline in the processed food component of food \ninflation. This stemmed from the large reduction in the contribution of \ngari to food inflation, reflecting the early harvest of cassava. However, \ndespite improved harvest, the farm produce component kept food \ninflation elevated, as the contribution of rice, maize and sorghum rose \nin the quarter under review. \n \n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\n35.00\n40.00\n45.00\nper cent\nProcessed food\nFarm produce\nFood Inflation\n \n28 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 20: Component Drivers of Food Inflation \n \nSource: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data \n \nThe key contributors to food inflation in Q32024 were meat, fish & egg \n(6.40 pp), rice (5.73 pp), yam, potatoes & other tubers (4.98 pp), fruits \n& vegetables (3.05 pp), and garri (2.99 pp). \n \n \n \n2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments \nIn a significant move aimed at bolstering Nigeria's infrastructure, the \nFederal Executive Council (FEC) approved a contract worth N158.00 \nbillion for the construction of service lanes for the Lekki Deep Sea Port \nto Dangote Refinery. The project will extend through Epe to the \nShagamu-Benin expressway, which is a critical artery for the nation's \ntransportation network. \nIn a continuous effort to reposition the Nigeria aviation sector, the \nAviation Working Group (AWG) increased Nigeria’s Cape Town \nConvention (CTC) compliance index from 49.0 per cent to 70.5 per \ncent, indicating safety for aircraft leasing in Nigeria. The development \nwill increase opportunities for aviation operators to acquire planes and \nget insurance, as well as reduce the cost of business \n0.00\n20.00\n40.00\n60.00\nSorghum (Guinea Corn) White or Brown,Sold Loose\nRice (Local & Imported)\nMillet (Jero or Maiwa) Sold Loose\nMaize Grain White Sold Loose\nYam, Potatoes & other tubers\nFruits & Vegatables\nFlours\nGarri\nProcessed Corn\nBread, Biscuit & Sausage\nSugar,Jam,Honey,etc\nOil & Fats\nMeat, Fish & Egg\nFood Inflation\n \nTransportation \n Aviation \n \n29 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \nTo sustain the drive towards providing better education infrastructure \nand upscale the education system in the country, the Federal \nGovernment earmarked ₦47.50 billion for the first phase upgrade of 50 \nselected senior secondary schools across the country. Similarly, the \nFederal Government approved the upgrade and inauguration of the \nCollege of Education, Pankshin to a University of Education, with a \ntake-off grant of ₦10.00 billion. \n \n2.1.4 Energy Sector and Electricity \n2.1.4.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Developments \n \nDomestic crude oil production increased in Q32024, following \nimproved security around oil pipeline infrastructure in the Niger \nDelta region. Nigeria's average crude oil production rose by 4.72 per \ncent to 1.33 mbpd in Q32024, from 1.27 mbpd in the preceding quarter. \nThe growth, despite falling short of its OPEC quota, indicated the \nresilience of the country’s oil sector in the face of challenges. \n \n \nEducation \nCrude Oil \nProduction and \nExport \n \n30 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 20: Nigeria’s Crude oil production and OPEC quota (mbpd) \n \nSource: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission \n \nThe electricity sector recorded improved performance recorded in \nQ32024, driven by increased water availability for hydro \nsubstations, enhanced gas supply to thermal stations, and \nimproved \ntransmission \nand \ndistribution \ninfrastructure. \nConsequently, the index of electricity production increased slightly on a \ny-o-y basis by 0.85 per cent compared with a 6.79 per cent increase in \nthe previous quarter. On a q-o-q basis, however, the index fell by 51.71 \nper cent in Q32024. \n \n \nTable 5: Index of Electricity Production \nPeriod \nIEP \nY-on-Y Change \nQ-on-Q Change \nQ12023 \n139.40 \n7.40 \n-43.24 \nQ22023 \n389.00 \n11.02 \n179.05 \nQ32023 \n198.90 \n5.24 \n-48.87 \nQ42023 \n261.50 \n6.47 \n31.47 \nQ12024 \n141.10 \n1.22 \n-46.04 \nQ22024 \n415.40 \n6.79 \n194.40 \nQ32024 \n200.60 \n0.85 \n-51.71 \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \nNote: IEP refers to index of electricity production \n \n0.00\n0.50\n1.00\n1.50\n2.00\nCrude Oil Production\nOPEC Quota\nIndex of Electricity \nproduction \n \n31 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nThe average estimated electricity generation in Q32024 at 4,110.47 \nMW/h was 3.79 per cent, higher than the 3,960.22 MW/h recorded in \nQ22024.The average estimated electricity consumption at 4,000.24 \nMW/h increased by 2.10 per cent in Q32024 compared with 3,918.15 \nMW/h in the preceding quarter. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nElectricity \nGeneration / \nConsumption \n \n32 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nBox Information 1☹) \nThe prices of most of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities increased in \nQ32024 compared with the preceding quarter. The price increases ranged from 6.16 \nper cent for gari (yellow) to 36.92 per cent for beans (white). This development was \ndriven, primarily, by the persistent increases in the costs of production and \ntransportation, which was further exacerbated by higher energy prices. \n \nThe prices of sweet potato, Irish potato, tomato, and onion bulb, however decreased \nduring the review period by 10.39, 8.83, 7.88, and 3.54 per cent, respectively, largely \non account of harvest period. \n \nPrices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Q32024 \n \n \nQ32023/a \nQ22024/a \nQ32024/b \n% \nChange \n% \nChange \n \nUNIT \n1 \n2 \n3 \n(1) & \n(3) \n(2) & \n(3) \nAgric eggs medium size \n1kg \n1028.56 \n1800.95 \n2289.19 \n122.56 \n27.11 \nBeans: brown, sold loose \n\" \n694.48 \n1896.63 \n2574.63 \n270.73 \n35.75 \nBeans: white black eye, sold loose \n\" \n670.77 \n1771.73 \n2425.92 \n261.66 \n36.92 \nGari white, sold loose \n\" \n451.37 \n1034.01 \n1124.40 \n149.11 \n8.74 \nGari yellow, sold loose \n\" \n480.03 \n1102.70 \n1170.65 \n143.87 \n6.16 \nGroundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify \nbottle \n\" \n1462.20 \n2382.87 \n2726.24 \n86.45 \n14.41 \nIrish potato \n\" \n668.43 \n1810.63 \n1650.74 \n146.96 \n-8.83 \nMaize grain white, sold loose \n\" \n561.25 \n916.66 \n1028.33 \n83.22 \n12.18 \nMaize grain yellow, sold loose \n\" \n561.65 \n927.07 \n1037.45 \n84.72 \n11.91 \nOnion bulb \n\" \n510.54 \n1245.17 \n1201.09 \n135.26 \n-3.54 \nPalm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle \n\" \n1236.62 \n1719.78 \n1884.81 \n52.42 \n9.60 \nRice agric, sold loose \n\" \n759.66 \n1612.45 \n1882.39 \n147.79 \n16.74 \nRice local, sold loose \n\" \n716.43 \n1570.33 \n1831.05 \n155.58 \n16.60 \nRice, medium grained \n\" \n764.74 \n1690.05 \n1924.76 \n151.69 \n13.89 \nRice, imported high quality, sold \nloose \n\" \n936.44 \n1953.53 \n2329.05 \n148.71 \n19.22 \nSweet potato \n\" \n353.29 \n948.87 \n850.31 \n140.69 \n-10.39 \nTomato \n\" \n559.34 \n1635.12 \n1506.35 \n169.31 \n-7.88 \nVegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify \nbottle \n\" \n1389.44 \n2238.11 \n2552.11 \n83.68 \n14.03 \nWheat flour: prepackaged \n(Golden Penny) \n2kg \n1474.30 \n2910.86 \n3485.34 \n136.41 \n19.74 \nYam tuber \n1kg \n569.88 \n1491.43 \n1661.80 \n191.61 \n11.42 \nSources: (a) National Bureau of Statistics (b) Staff Estimates \n \n \n \n \n \n \n33 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n2.2 \nFISCAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS \nProvisional data showed increased fiscal operations in Q32024, \nfollowing higher receipts from non-oil sources. Federally \ncollected revenue rose by 7.48 per cent, relative to Q22024, but \nwas short of the benchmark by 23.71 per cent. The FGN retained \nrevenue was 5.22 and 53.41 per cent below the levels in Q22024 \nand the monthly target, respectively. Aggregate expenditure of the \nFGN declined by 16.26 and 22.38 per cent below the levels in \nQ22024 and the quarterly target, respectively. Fiscal deficit \ncontracted by 22.51 per cent, compared with the levels in Q22024, \n43.88 per cent, above the quarterly target. At ₦121.67 trillion \n(51.22% of GDP), public debt exceeded the 40.00 per cent \nbenchmark as at end-March 2024. It, nonetheless, remained within \nthe 70.00 per cent of GDP threshold for Market Access Countries. \n2.2.1 Federation Account Operations \nGross federation account earnings improved, occasioned by \nhigher receipts from non-oil revenue. At N6.86 trillion, provisional \ngross federation account receipt was 7.48 per cent above the level in \nthe preceding quarter, but 23.71 per cent short of the benchmark. The \nincrease was due, largely, to higher receipts from corporate tax and \nvalue added tax (VAT). The composition of gross federation revenue \nshowed that non-oil revenue remained dominant, accounting for 81.00 \nper cent, while oil revenue constituted the balance. \nNon-oil revenue, at N5.56 trillion, was 19.48 and 50.36 per cent above \nthe levels in the preceding quarter and target, respectively. The \nincrease relative to preceding quarter was driven, largely, by higher \n \nSummary \nFederation \nRevenue \n \n34 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \ncollections from corporate tax and value added tax (VAT).5 The \nincrease relative to quarterly target reflects improved revenue collection \nrelative to budget expectations. \nOil revenue, however, fell by 24.72 per cent to N1.30 trillion, relative to \nthe level in Q22024 on account of lower receipts from petroleum profit \ntax (PPT) and royalties. It was also, 75.39 per cent short of the quarterly \ntarget due to shut-ins, arising from ageing oil pipelines and installations. \n \nFigure 21: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion) \n \nSource: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance \n \n \n \n \n5 Corporate tax is composed of company income tax, withholding tax and capital gain tax. \nQ22023\nQ32023\nQ42024\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nN Billion\nNon-oil\nOil\nFederally-collected Revenue\n \n35 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nTable 6: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the \nThree-Tiers of Government (₦ Billion) \n \nQ32023 \nQ22024 /1 \nQ32024/1 \n*Budget \nFederally Collected Revenue \n 4,508.67 \n 6,387.82 \n 6,865.84 \n9,000.02 \nOil \n 814.23 \n 1,733.50 \n 1,304.96 \n5,301.56 \nCrude Oil & Gas Exports \n3.09 \n9.49 \n27.07 \n366.09 \nPPT \n225.35 \n445.34 \n335.52 \n2655.89 \nRoyalties \n287.69 \n800.86 \n632.49 \n1,605.90 \nDomestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales \n0.00 \n0.00 \n0.00 \n26.25 \nOthers \n298.1 \n477.81 \n309.88 \n647.41 \nNon-oil \n3,694.44 \n 4,654.32 \n 5,560.87 \n3,698.46 \nCorporate Tax \n1,843.88 \n895.24 \n1,868.79 \n814.19 \nCustoms & Excise Duties \n551.53 \n845.87 \n853.58 \n717.22 \nValue-Added Tax (VAT) \n937.93 \n1,548.28 \n1,761.36 \n988.53 \nIndependent Revenue of Fed. Govt. \n312.32 \n1,306.21 \n1,016.76 \n673.19 \nOthers** \n48.78 \n58.7 \n60.39 \n505.33 \nTotal Deductions/Transfers \n2,585.24 \n4,192.92 \n4,734.92 \n2,115.51 \nFederally Collected Revenue Less \nDeductions & Transfers*** \n1,923.42 \n2,194.90 \n2,130.92 \n6,884.51 \nplus: \n \n \n \n \nAdditional Revenue \n872.75 \n1,279.78 \n1.785.32 \n43.56 \nExcess Crude Revenue \n0.00 \n0.00 \n200.00 \n0.00 \nNon-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL \n38.38 \n47.92 \n49.53 \n43.56] \nExchange Gain \n834.37 \n1,231.86 \n1,535.79 \n0.00 \nTotal Distributed Balance \n2,796.17 \n3,474.68 \n3,916.24 \n6,928.07 \nFederal Government \n1,058.00 \n1,102.11 \n1,265.78 \n3,288.04 \nStatutory \n927.94 \n885.85 \n1,019.75 \n3,150.68 \nVAT \n130.07 \n216.26 \n246.03 \n137.37 \nState Government \n920.49 \n1,911.39 \n1,358.32 \n1,424.54 \nStatutory \n486.93 \n1190.51 \n538.23 \n966.65 \nVAT \n433.56 \n720.88 \n820.09 \n457.89 \n13% Derivation \n140.15 \n317.08 \n304.89 \n650.23 \nLocal Government \n677.53 \n1,369.60 \n987.26 \n1,565.25 \nStatutory \n374.04 \n864.98 \n413.19 \n1,244.73 \nVAT \n303.49 \n504.62 \n 574.06 \n320.52 \nSource: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates. \nNote: \n*Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act. \n** Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information \nTechnology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue, \nand other non-regular earnings. \n*** Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls; while transfers entail \nprovisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue. \n/1 Provisional. \n \nFrom the federally collected revenue of N6.87 trillion, a net balance of \nN3.92 trillion was distributed to the three tiers of government after \n \n36 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \naccounting for additional revenue and statutory deductions and \ntransfers. The federal, state, and local governments received N1.27 \ntrillion, N1.36 trillion and N0.99 trillion, respectively, while the balance \nof N0.30 trillion was allocated to the 13% Derivation Fund for oil-\nproducing states. Net disbursement was 12.71 per cent above the level \nin Q22024, but was 43.47 per cent short of the quarterly target. \n \n2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government \nFGN retained revenue declined in the review period due, largely, \nto lower receipts from share of federation account and FGN \nindependent revenue. At N2.28 trillion, provisional FGN retained \nrevenue was 5.22 and 53.41 per cent below the levels in Q22024 and \nthe benchmark, respectively. \nTable 7: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion) \n \nQ32023 \nQ22024 /1 \nQ32024 /1 \n*Budget \nFGN Retained Revenue \n1,370.32 \n 2,408.32 \n 2,282.54 \n4,899.62 \nFederation Account \n 510.30 \n 307.12 \n 179.12 \n3,144.14 \nVAT Pool Account \n130.07 \n 216.26 \n 246.03 \n 137.37 \nFGN Independent Revenue \n 312.32 \n 1,306.21 \n 1,016.76 \n 673.19 \nExcess Oil Revenue \n 0.00 \n 0.00 \n105.36 \n 0.00 \nExcess non-oil/EMTL \n 5.76 \n 7.19 \n 7.43 \n 6.53 \nExchange Gain \n411.88 \n571.54 \n727.84 \n 0.00 \nOthers** \n0.00 \n 0.00 \n 0.00 \n 938.38 \nSource: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation \nNote: \n /1 Provisional \n* Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act. \n** Others include revenue from Special Accounts and Special Levies. \n \n \n \nThe provisional aggregate expenditure of the FGN declined, \nfollowing lower interest payments and overhead cost. At N5.58 \ntrillion, provisional aggregate expenditure in Q32024 was 16.26 per \ncent below the level in the preceding quarter and 22.38 per cent short \nof the quarterly target of N7.19 trillion. \n \nFederal \nGovernment \nRetained Revenue \nFederal \nGovernment \nExpenditure \n \n37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nThe lower expenditure followed the reduction in interest payments and \noverhead costs, which fell by 8.92 and 45.51 per cent, respectively. The \ndevelopment was due, largely, to fewer maturing loan payment \nobligations in the review period and deliberate fiscal policies aimed at \nefficiency and lower operational expenses. Further analysis of total \nexpenditure showed that recurrent accounted for 66.84 per cent, while \ncapital and transfer payments constituted 25.36 and 7.80 per cent, \nrespectively. \n \n Figure 22: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion) \n \nSource: CBN Staff Estimates and Office of the Accountant General of the Federation \n \nThe overall fiscal balance of the FGN narrowed in Q32024. \nProvisional data showed that while primary deficit widened by 155.28 \nper cent, from the level in the preceding quarter, overall deficit, \ncontracted by 22.51 per cent to N3.30 trillion. The contraction indicated \na higher decline in expenditure relative to revenue, reflecting \ngovernment efforts to improve fiscal efficiency and lower operational \nexpenses. \n \n \n4114.17\n4264.5\n4951.46\n5642.23\n6668.83\n5584.15\n7,194.35\n0\n2000\n4000\n6000\n8000\nQ22023\nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nBudget\nRecurrent Expenditure\nCapital Expenditure\nTransfers\nTotal Expenditure\nOverall Fiscal \nBalance \n \n38 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nTable 8: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion) \n \nPublic debt stock was above the 40.00 per cent national threshold \nat end-March 2024, but remained within the 70.00 per cent \nthreshold for Market Access Countries. Total public debt \noutstanding stood at N121.67 trillion (51.22% of GDP), at end-March \n2024, and was 24.99 per cent higher than the level at end-December \n2023. The rise was due, largely, to revaluation effect arising from \nexchange rate depreciation, securitisation of ways & means advances \nand new borrowings to finance the deficit outlined in the 2024 \nAppropriation Act. A breakdown of the consolidated public debt shows \nthat domestic debt accounted for 53.95 per cent, while external debt \nconstituted 46.05 per cent. Of the consolidated public debt stock, FGN \nowed N117.60 trillion (96.66%), while state governments owed the \nbalance6. \n \nA disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was \nN61.58 trillion, constituting 52.36 per cent, while external debt \nconstituted N56.02 trillion (47.64%). Further analysis revealed that \nFGN Bonds maintained its dominance, with 78.63 per cent of the total \ndomestic debt stock, followed by treasury bills (16.95%), promissory \n \n6 The FGN component of public debt includes external debt of state governments, which are contingent \nliabilities of the federal government. \n \nQ32023 \nQ22024 /1 \nQ32024 /1 \nBudget \nRetained revenue \n1,489.64 \n 2,408.32 \n 2,282.54 \n4,899.62 \nAggregate expenditure \n 4,264.50 \n 6.668.83 \n 5.584.15 \n7,194.35 \n Recurrent \n 3,512.38 \n 5,386.63 \n 3.732.59 \n4,259.87 \n Non-debt \n1,304.74 \n1,614.26 \n1,677.11 \n2,192.13 \n Debt Service \n2,207.65 \n 3,772.37 \n 2,055.48 \n2,067.74 \n Capital \n515.04 \n846.51 \n1,415.86 \n2,498.79 \n Transfers \n237.08 \n 435.70 \n 435.70 \n435.70 \nPrimary balance \n-567.21 \n -488.14 \n -1,246.14 \n-226.99 \nOverall balance \n-2774.86 \n -4,260.51 \n -3,301.61 \n-2,294.73 \nSource: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates \nNote: /1 provisional \nFederal \nGovernment Debt \n \n39 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nnotes (2.55%), and FGN Sukuk (1.77%), while others constituted the \nbalance.7 Of the total external debt stock, multilateral accounted for \n49.45 per cent, commercial (36.54%) and bilateral loans (14.01%). \n \nDebt service at end-March 2024 fell by 12.98 per cent to N2.48 trillion, \nfrom N2.85 trillion at end-December 2023, owing to fewer maturing \nbilateral and commercial obligations, relative to the preceding quarter. \nA breakdown showed that domestic debt service was N0.99 trillion \n(39.90%), while external debt service constituted N1.49 trillion \n(60.10%). \n \nFigure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition \n(₦ Billion) \n \n Source: Debt Management Office \n \n \n \n \n7 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%). \n0\n40000\n80000\n120000\nQ12023\nQ22023\nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nExternal Debt\nDomestic Debt\nTotal\n \n40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 24: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument \n \n Source: Debt Management Office \n \nFigure 25 Composition of External Debt Stock by Instrument \nSource: Debt Management Office \n \n \n \nFGN Bonds\n78.63%\nTreasury Bills\n16.95%\nPromissory \nNote …\nFGN Sukuk\n1.77%\nOthers\n0.10%\n FGN Bonds\n Treasury Bills\n Promissory Note\n FGN Sukuk\nOthers\n49.45%\n36.54%\n14.01%\nMultilateral\nCommercial\nBilateral\n \n41 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.3 Monetary and Financial Developments \nThe banking system remained safe, sound, and stable in the \nreview quarter. Monetary aggregates trended upwards due to \nincreased credit to key sectors of the economy and the effect of \nexchange rate depreciation. Key short-term interest rates were \nstable and reflected the liquidity dynamics in the banking system. \nActivities in the Nigerian equities market slowed, in response to \nrising interest rate, as investors’ preference shift from equities to \nfixed income securities. \n \n \n2.3.1 Monetary Developments \nReserve money increased in Q32024, reflecting the rise in \ncurrency-in-circulation (CIC) and liabilities to other depository \ncorporations (LODCs). Relative to the level at end-December 2023, \nreserve money grew by 13.72 per cent to ₦28.14 trillion compared with \nthe level in Q22024, but slightly below the 2024 provisional benchmark \nof ₦28.27 trillion by 0.46 per cent. The growth in reserve money was \nunderlain by the 18.00 and 12.98 per cent increase in CIC and LODCs \nto ₦4.31 trillion and ₦23.83 trillion, respectively. \nFigure 26: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n2.76\n3.65\n3.87\n4.05\n4.31\n16.75\n21.09\n19.52\n20.97\n23.83\n19.51\n24.74\n23.38\n25.02\n28.14\n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\nRatio\n₦ Trillion\nCurrency-in-Circulation\nLiabilities to ODCs\nReserve Money\nM3 Multiplier (RHS)\nReserve Money \nSummary \n \n42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 27: Growth in Reserve Money (Over Preceding December) \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nNotes and coins remained the largest component of CIC, rising to \n₦4.29 trillion at end-September 2024, from ₦4.03 trillion at end-June \n2024. On the other hand, the eNaira decreased by 0.16 per cent to \n₦18.35 billion, from ₦18.38 billion at end-June 2024. \nFigure 28: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation (₦ Billion) \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nBroad money supply (M3) grew by 38.33 per cent to ₦108.95 trillion in \nQ32024 despite a decline in money multiplier to 3.87, from 4.05 in \n2024Q2. From the liability side, the expansion in broad money was due \nto the growth in other deposits (51.06%), transferable deposits \n-10.00\n-5.00\n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\n35.00\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\nPer cent\nCurrency-in-Circulation\nReserve Money\nLiabilities to ODCs\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\neNaira\n10.26\n13.98\n13.98\n18.38\n18.35\nNotes and Coins\n2,751.04\n3,639.33\n3,855.36\n4,030.35\n4,292.72\nCurrency in\nCirculation\n2,761.30\n3,653.31\n3,869.34\n4,048.73\n4,311.07\n-500\n500\n1500\n2500\n3500\n4500\n₦' Billion\neNaira\nNotes and Coins\nCurrency in Circulation\nBroad Money \nSupply \n \n43 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n(19.81%), and currency outside depository corporations (16.97%). \nOther deposits contributed the most to the growth in M3 with 31.5 \npercentage points (pp), followed by transferable deposits with 6.62 pp \nand currency outside depository corporations with 0.74 pp. Conversely, \nsecurities other than shares declined by 97.77 per cent, slowing the \ngrowth in M3 by 0.52 percentage points. \n \n \n \n \n44 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \nTable 9: Money and Credit Growth Over Preceding December \nMonetary Aggregates \n \n \nQ32023 \n \n \nQ42023 \n \n \nQ22024 \n \n \nQ32024 \nAnnualised \ngrowth (%) \nContribution to \nM3 Growth \n(percentage \npoint) \n(%) \n(%) \n(%) \n(%) \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n(Q32024) \n(Q32024) \nNet Foreign Assets \n404.95 \n309.85 \n46.61 \n57.55 \n76.73 \n11.51 \nClaims on Non-\nresidents \n110.24 \n100.62 \n50.68 \n85.16 \n113.54 \n50.38 \nLiabilities to Non-\nresidents \n51.80 \n59.13 \n52.76 \n99.26 \n132.34 \n38.87 \nNet Domestic \nAssets \n-1.40 \n30.34 \n24.37 \n33.53 \n44.71 \n26.83 \nDomestic Claims \n13.55 \n32.66 \n10.72 \n34.36 \n45.82 \n38.27 \nNet Claims on \nCentral Government \n-34.32 \n3.53 \n-2.43 \n71.31 \n95.08 \n22.21 \nClaims on Central \nGovernment \n24.22 \n38.85 \n9.04 \n62.17 \n82.89 \n37.59 \nLiabilities to Central \nGovernment \n154.99 \n117.74 \n21.22 \n52.45 \n69.93 \n15.38 \nClaims on Other \nSectors \n40.27 \n48.92 \n15.82 \n20.02 \n26.69 \n16.06 \nClaims on Other \nFinancial Corporations \n36.90 \n52.65 \n-11.97 \n-7.99 \n-10.65 \n-1.45 \nClaims on State and \nLocal Government \n8.97 \n18.58 \n2.19 \n-3.07 \n-4.09 \n-0.16 \nClaims on Public \nNonfinancial \nCorporations \n89.47 \n-1.82 \n9.21 \n13.32 \n17.76 \n0.55 \nClaims on Private \nSector \n39.43 \n58.15 \n27.27 \n32.51 \n43.35 \n17.12 \nTotal Monetary \nAssets (M3) \n28.53 \n50.92 \n28.82 \n38.33 \n51.11 \n38.33 \nCurrency Outside \nDepository \nCorporations \n-5.95 \n33.67 \n10.39 \n16.97 \n22.62 \n0.74 \nTransferable \nDeposits \n26.68 \n44.83 \n25.38 \n19.81 \n26.41 \n6.62 \nNarrow Money (M1) \n22.64 \n43.45 \n23.65 \n19.48 \n25.97 \n7.36 \nOther Deposits \n31.61 \n56.47 \n33.08 \n51.06 \n68.08 \n31.50 \nBroad Money (M2) \n28.02 \n51.26 \n29.50 \n39.07 \n52.09 \n38.86 \nSecurities Other than \nShares \n95.51 \n7.04 \n-97.46 \n-97.77 \n-130.36 \n-0.52 \nTotal Monetary \nLiabilities(M3) \n28.53 \n50.92 \n28.82 \n38.33 \n51.11 \n38.33 \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nOn the asset side, growth in M3 was driven by increases in both NFA \nand NDA. At end-September 2024, NFA rose by 57.55 per cent to \n₦24.82 trillion and contributed 11.51 pp to the overall growth in M3 \n \n45 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nrelative to the 46.61 per cent growth and a contribution of 9.32 pp at \nend-June 2024. \nSimilarly, NDA rose by 33.53 per cent to ₦84.14 trillion, with 26.83 pp \ncontribution to the growth in M3. The increase in NDA was due to the \n71.31 and 20.02 per cent growths in net claims on central government \nand claims on other sectors, respectively, contributing 22.21 pp and \n16.06 pp to the growth in M3. Additionally, growth in M3 was driven by \nincrease in claims on public nonfinancial corporations (13.32%) and \nclaims on private sector (32.51%) with contributions of 0.55 pp and \n17.12 pp to M3 growth. \n \n2.3.2 Sectoral Credit Utilisation \nSectoral credit utilisation increased by 5.13 per cent to ₦58.57 trillion in \nQ32024, compared with ₦55.71 trillion in the preceding quarter. The \nservices sector maintained dominance in receipt of credit to key sectors \nof the economy, utilising 53.08 per cent, followed by industry and \nagriculture which accounted for 42.98 and 3.94 per cent, respectively. \nTable 10: Sectoral Credit Allocation \nSECTORS \nAllocation (₦ trillion) \nShare in Total (%) \nGrowth \n(%) \nQ3’23 \nQ2’24 \nQ3’24 \nQ3’23 \nQ2’24 \nQ3’24 \n(3) & (2) \n1 \n2 \n3 \n4 \n5 \n6 \n[a] Agriculture \n1.83 \n2.44 \n2.31 \n4.69 \n4.38 \n3.94 \n-5.31 \n[b] Industry \n16.81 \n24.57 \n25.17 \n42.98 \n44.10 \n42.98 \n2.44 \nof which \nManufacturing \n7.34 \n9.26 \n8.67 \n18.76 \n16.63 \n14.81 \n-6.37 \n[c] Services \n20.46 \n28.70 \n31.09 \n52.33 \n51.52 \n53.08 \n8.32 \nof which: \n3.63 \n6.16 \n7.52 \n9.28 \n11.06 \n12.84 \n22.07 \nFinance, \nInsurance & \nCapital Market \nTrade/General \nCommerce \n3.21 \n3.57 \n4.23 \n8.20 \n6.40 \n7.23 \n18.74 \nTOTAL \n39.11 \n55.71 \n58.57 \n100 \n100 \n100 \n5.13 \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nSectoral Credit \nUtilisation \n \n \n46 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nConsumer credit outstanding declined by 10.15 per cent to ₦4.25 trillion \nin Q32024 compared with ₦4.73 trillion in the preceding quarter. \nConsequently, personal, and retail loans declined to ₦3.15 trillion (9.22 \n%) and ₦1.10 trillion (12.70 %), from ₦3.47 trillion and ₦1.26 trillion, \nrespectively, in the preceding quarter. Personal loans remained \ndominant, accounting for 74.14 per cent of total consumer credit, while \nretail loans constituted the balance. \nFigure 29: Consumer Credit Outstanding \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \n2.3.3 Financial Developments \n2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments \nAverage banking system liquidity declined in Q32024, relative to \nthe level in the preceding quarter driven, mainly, by withdrawals \nvia monetary operations. Withdrawals from the banking system \nthrough standing lending facility (SLF) repayment, cash reserve ratio \n(CRR) debits, open market operations (OMO) sales, Nigerian Treasury \nBills (NTBs) sales, FX-OMO swap settlement, among others moderated \nthe level of liquidity in the banking system in the review quarter. \nConsequently, average net industry balance declined by 40.63 per cent \nto ₦0.16 trillion from ₦0.27 trillion in the preceding quarter. \n3.05\n3.42\n8.24\n4.73\n4.25\n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\n₦'Trillion\nPersonal Loan\nRetail Loan\nTotal\nConsumer \nCredit \nIndustry Liquidity \nCondition \n \n47 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nActivities at the standing facility window increased in Q32024, relative \nto the level in the preceding quarter, reflecting the liquidity level in \nbanking system. Total transactions at the standing lending \nfacility (SLF) window rose to ₦27.95 trillion in the review period, with \ndaily average of ₦0.43 trillion, from ₦26.44 trillion, with daily average of \n₦0.51 trillion in the preceding quarter. Similarly, transactions at the \nstanding deposit facility (SDF) window grew to ₦15.07 trillion, with daily \naverage of ₦0.23 trillion, from ₦6.39 trillion, with daily average of 0.11 \ntrillion in the preceding quarter. \n \nFigure 30: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nAnalysis of the open market operations revealed that the total amount \noffered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦2.80 trillion, ₦2.96 trillion, and \n₦2.34 trillion, respectively, comparative with ₦3.20 trillion, ₦5.67 trillion, \nand ₦4.36 trillion in the preceding quarter. The stop rates increased \n21.42(±2.94) per cent, from 20.62(±1.88) per cent in the preceding \nquarter. \n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nQ3'23\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\n5.83\n26.44\n27.95\n2.44\n6.39\n15.07\n₦'Trillion\nSLF\nSDF\nOpen Market \nOperations \nDiscount \nWindows \n \n48 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 31: Open-Market-Operation \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nSubscriptions for both Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Federal \nGovernment of Nigeria (FGN) Bonds declined in Q32024, relative to the \nlevel in the preceding quarter. Total NTBs offered, subscribed, and \nallotted across tenors amounted to ₦1.69 trillion, ₦4.19 trillion and \n₦1.62 trillion respectively, compared with ₦1.47 trillion, ₦6.98 trillion, \nand ₦2.85 trillion in Q22024. The lower amount offered and subscribed \nwere accompanied by higher stop rates on all the maturities \n19.20(±2.90) per cent, relative 18.47(±2.23) in the preceding quarter. \nFigure 32: Primary Market NTBs \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \n \n \n \n \n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\nQ3'23\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\n0.15\n3.20\n2.80\n0.31\n5.67\n2.96\n0.15\n4.36\n2.34\n₦'Trillion\nOffer\nSubscription\nAllotment\n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\nQ3'23\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\n1.41\n1.47\n1.69\n5.78\n6.98\n4.19\n1.41\n2.85\n1.62\n₦'Trillion\nOffer\nSubscription\nAllotment\nGovernment \nSecurities \n \n49 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n \nFGN Bonds of various tranches were offered for sale in Q32024. The \namount offered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦0.64 trillion, ₦1.15 \ntrillion, and ₦0.86 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦1.35 trillion, \n₦1.78 trillion, and ₦1.30 trillion in the preceding quarter. The marginal \nrate at 20.49(±1.49) per cent was higher than 20.37(±1.13) per cent in \nthe preceding quarter, while the bid rate stood at 22.00(±8.00) per cent \nrelative to 19.00(±5.00) per cent in the preceding quarter. The lower \ndemand for longer-tenured government securities could be attributed to \ninflation expectation. \n \n \nFigure 33: Primary Auctions of FGN Bond (N Billion) \n \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nKey short-term interest rates were relatively stable and reflected the \nliquidity dynamics in the banking system. Average interbank call rate \nrose marginally by 0.17 percentage point (pp) to 29.55 per cent, from \n29.38 per cent in Q22024. Conversely, average open buy back (OBB) \nrate fell slightly by 0.02 pp to 28.76 per cent, from 28.78 per cent in the \npreceding quarter. The Nigerian interbank offered rate (NIBOR) call and \nthe NIBOR-30 rates moved in opposite direction as the former declined \nby 2.72 pp to 26.41 per cent, while the latter increased by 3.53 pp to \n27.31 per cent, relative to the rates in Q22024. \n0.00\n0.50\n1.00\n1.50\n2.00\nQ3'23\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\n1.08\n1.35\n0.64\n1.55\n1.78\n1.15\n1.14\n1.30\n0.86\n₦'Trillion\nOffer\nSubscription\nAllotment\nInterest Rate \nDevelopment\n \n50 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 35: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nThe data revealed that average lending rates trended upward in \nQ32024, as average prime and maximum lending rates rose by 0.91 pp \nand 0.59 pp to 16.55 and 29.68 per cent respectively, relative to the \nlevel the preceding quarter. Similarly, the weighted average term \ndeposit rate increased by 0.45 pp to 11.08 per cent in the preceding \nquarter. The spread between the weighted average term deposit and \nmaximum lending rates narrowed to 18.60 pp, relative to 18.46pp in \nQ22024. \nFigure 35: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria. \nNote: PLR= Prime lending rate; MLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term deposit \nrate. \n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\n35.00\nQ1'21\nQ2'21\nQ3'21\nQ4'21\nQ1'22\nQ2'22\nQ3'22\nQ4'22\nQ1'23\nQ2'23\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\nPer cent (%)\nInterbank Call\nOBB\nNIBOR Call\nNIBOR-30day\nUpper Corridor\nLower Corridor\n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nQ1'21\nQ2'21\nQ3'21\nQ4'21\nQ1'22\nQ2'22\nQ3'22\nQ4'22\nQ1'23\nQ2'23\nQ3'23\nQ4'23\nQ1'24\nQ2'24\nQ3'24\nPer cent (%)\nPLR\nMLR\nWATD\nSpread\n \n51 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.3.3.2 \nCapital Market Developments \nActivities in the Nigerian equities market decelerated in the third \nquarter of 2024, signalling the response of the market to interest \nrate hike at the September 2024 MPC meeting. The bearish \nperformance of the capital market mirrored asset switching \nactivities of investors from equities to fixed income securities to \nmaximise the attractive yields. The aggregate market capitalisation \ndeclined by 1.3 per cent to N102.92 trillion in the review period, \ncompared with the N104.28 trillion recorded at end-June 2024. The \ndecline \nwas \npossibly \ndriven \nby \nconcerns \nabout \nlingering \nmacroeconomic headwinds and the introduction of a windfall tax that is \nexpected to affect the full year performance of some stocks. \nThe equities, debt and the exchange traded funds (ETF) components \ndepreciated by 0.1, 2.9, and 19.8 per cent respectively, to close at \nN56.64 trillion, N46.25 trillion, and N32.43 billion compared with the \nN56.60 trillion, N47.65 trillion and N27.08 billion recorded in the \npreceding quarter. Notably, the equities component sustained its \ndominance constituting 55.04 per cent of the aggregate market \ncapitalisation, while debt and ETF components constituted the balance \nof 44.96 per cent. \nThe All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 1.5 per cent to 98,558.79 \nindex points, compared with the 100,057.49 index points recorded in \nthe preceding quarter. The development was largely in response to the \nhigher interest rate environment which tilted investors’ interest from the \nequities market to fixed-income securities. \n \n \nMarket \nCapitalisation \nNGX All- \nShare Index \n \n52 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \nFigure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited \n \nA disaggregation of the equities component of the total aggregate \ncapitalisation showed that the main board constituted 64.64 per cent of \nthe total, premium board accounted for 35.20 per cent. This was \nfollowed by growth board at 0.11 per cent, Real Estate Investment Trust \n& Close End Fund (0.05%), and AseM (0.01%). \nFigure 37: Percentage share of equites market capitalisation \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited \n \nAlso, a disaggregation of the bonds component of the total aggregate \ncapitalisation revealed that federal government bonds constituted the \n0.00\n20,000.00\n40,000.00\n60,000.00\n80,000.00\n100,000.00\n120,000.00\nQ3 2023\nQ4 2023\nQ1 2024\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\nIndex Points\nN' Billion\nAggregate Market Cap (LHS)\nAll Share Index (RHS)\n0.01\n0.11\n35.20\n0.05\n64.64\nASeM Total\nGrowth Board Total\nPremium Board Total\nReal Estate Invest. Trust & Close End Fund (REITCEF)\n \n53 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nhighest share of 96.74 per cent, while corporate bonds/debentures and \ngovernment bonds (state and local) accounted for the balance of 3.26 \nper cent of total. \nFigure 38: Percentage Contribution of Total Bonds Market Value \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited \n \nThe capital market indices ended on a mixed note at end period of \nQ32024, as NGX-Premium, NGX-30, NGX-Consumer Goods, NGX-\nLotus II, NGX-Industrial Goods, NGX-Growth, NGX-Sovereign Bond \nand NGX-Pension Board depreciated, relative to the levels in the \npreceding quarter while, NGX-Oil & Gas, NGX-AFR Div Yield, NGX-\nMERI Growth, NGX-Banking, NGX-MERI Value, NGX-AFR Bank \nValue, NGX-Insurance and others trended upwards. The rise in most of \nthe indices reflected the impressive performance of some highly \ncapitalised stocks amid the interest rate hike by the CBN. \n \n \n2.50\n96.74\n0.76\nCorporate bonds/Debentures\nGovernment bonds- Federal\nGovernment bonds- State and Local\nSectoral \nIndices \n \n54 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 39: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Per cent for Sectoral \nIndices \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited \n \nTable 11: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices \nSectoral Indicies \nQ2 2024 \nQ3 2024 \nChange (%) \nNGX-Oil & Gas \n 1,440.67 \n 1,990.84 \n38.2 \nNGX-AFR Div Yield \n 10,652.71 \n 13,770.03 \n29.3 \nNGX-MERI Growth \n 4,590.75 \n 5,424.77 \n18.2 \nNGX-Banking \n 830.20 \n 944.48 \n13.8 \nNGX-MERI Value \n 6,970.70 \n 7,795.35 \n11.8 \nNGX-AFR Bank Value \n 1,890.00 \n 2,093.92 \n10.8 \nNGX-Insurance \n 390.57 \n 429.93 \n10.1 \nNGX-CG \n 2,228.44 \n 2,403.18 \n7.8 \nNGX-Pension \n 3,762.21 \n 4,012.95 \n6.7 \nNGX-ASeM \n 1,504.55 \n 1,583.71 \n5.3 \nNGX-Main Board \n 4,692.94 \n 4,832.03 \n3.0 \nNGX-Consumer Goods \n 1,581.55 \n 1,564.09 \n-1.1 \nNGX-30 \n 3,710.32 \n 3,661.41 \n-1.3 \nNGX-Lotus II \n 6,287.43 \n 6,108.53 \n-2.8 \nNGX-Pension Board \n 1,771.41 \n 1,717.03 \n-3.1 \nNGX-Premium \n 9,864.01 \n 9,050.21 \n-8.3 \nNGX-Growth \n 5,576.43 \n 4,884.27 \n-12.4 \nNGX-Sovereign Bond \n 766.01 \n 624.30 \n-18.5 \nNGX-Industrial Goods \n 4,696.04 \n 3,806.57 \n-18.9 \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited \n \n% Change (Q-on-Q)\n \n55 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nTrading activities on the Exchange increased in the review quarter as \nthe value of traded securities rose by 38.90 per cent to N0.73 trillion, \ncompared with the N0.53 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter. \nSimilarly, the volume of traded securities increased by 41.95 per cent \nto 39.74 billion shares, compared with 27.99 billion shares recorded in \nthe previous quarter. Also, the total number of deals traded increased \nby 25.72 per cent to 606,952.00 deals, relative to the level in the \npreceding quarter. \nFigure 41: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX \n \nSource: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited. \n \nA total of 29 securities were listed on the Exchange, comprising 16 new \nlistings and 13 supplementary listings. The listings comprise FGN \nsavings bonds, ordinary shares, right issues, and futures contracts. \nThe total listings were higher than the 21 recorded at the preceding \nquarter of 2024. In addition, the Exchange delisted three securities \ncomprising all trading shares of Niger Insurance Plc, Resort Savings & \nLoans Plc, and RAK Unity Petroleum Plc. \n \n \n \nQ3 2023\nQ4 2023\nQ1 2024\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\nBillion of Shares\nN' Billion\nValue of Traded Securities (LHS)\nVolume of Traded Securities (RHS)\nNGX Listings \nMarket \nTransactions \n \n56 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nTable 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian \nExchange Limited in Q32024 \nCompany/Security \nShares Units/Price \nRemarks \n17.414% FGN Savings Bond \nJUNE 2026 \nIssued 1,077,956 units amounting to \nN1,077,956,000 \nNew listing \n18.414% FGN Savings Bond \nJUNE 2027 \nIssued 3,232,773 units amounting to \nN3,232,773,000 \nNew listing \nAccess Holdings Plc \n17,772,612,811 ordinary shares of 50 \nkobo each at N19.75 per share. \n*RIGHT ISSUE* \nNew listing \nWema Bank Plc \nAdditional 8,572,103,573 Ordinary \nShares of 50 kobo each at N4.66 per \nshare. *RIGHT ISSUE* \nSupplementary \nlisting \nTantalizers Plc \n1,788,372,094 Ordinary Shares of 50 \nkobo each at N0.60 per share \nSupplementary \nlisting \n16.668% FGN Savings Bond \nJULY \n2026 \n1,204,377 \nunits \namounting \nto \nN1,204,377,000.00 \nNew listing \n17.668% FGN Savings Bond \nJULY 2027 \n2,367,200 \nunits \namounting \nto \nN2,367,200,000.00 \nNew listing \n17.202% FGN Savings Bond \nSEPT. 2026 \n843,581 \nunits \namounting \nto \nN843,581,000 \nNew listing \n18.202% \nFGN \nSavings \nSEPT. 2027 \n2,748,666 \nunits \namounting \nto \nN2,748,666,000 \nNew listing \nNotore Chemical Industries \nPlc \nIssued 2,418,099,300 Ordinary Shares \nof 50 Kobo each at N43.75 per Share \nSupplementary \nlisting \nInternational Breweries Plc \nIssued \n161,172,395,100 \nordinary \nshares of 2 kobo each at N3.65 per \nshare. *RIGHT ISSUE* \nSupplementary \nlisting \nNigerian Breweries Plc \n \nIssue \nof \n22,607,491,232 \nordinary \nshares of 50 Kobo each at N26.50 per \nshare. *RIGHT ISSUE* \nNew listing \n19.30% FGN Bonds APR. \n2029 \nIssued 18,885,502 units \nSupplementary \nlisting \n18.50% FGN Bonds FEB. \n2031 \nIssued 6,180,400 units \nSupplementary \nlisting \n19.89 per cent FGN Bonds \nMAY 2033 \nIssued 200,649,400 units \nSupplementary \nlisting \nZenith Bank Plc \n5,232,748,964 ordinary shares of 50 \nkobo each at N36.00 per share. \n*RIGHT ISSUE* \nNew listing \n19.30% FGN Bonds APR \n2029 \n18,349,101 additional units of shares. \nSupplementary \nlisting \n18.50% FGN Bonds FEB \n2031 \n42,189,900 additional units of shares. \nSupplementary \nlisting \n19.89% FGN Bonds MAY \n2033 \n314,212,914 additional units of shares. \nSupplementary \nlisting \nChapel Hill Denham, Nigeria \nInfrastructure \nDebt \nFund \n(NIDF) \n177,401 additional units of shares. \nSupplementary \nlisting \nChapel Hill Denham Nigeria \nInfrastructure \nDebt \nFund \n(NIDF) \n901,761 additional units of shares. \nSupplementary \nlisting \nJapaul Gold & Ventures Plc \nAdditional \n8,000,000,000 \nOrdinary \nShares of 50 Kobo each at N2.50 per \nShare \nSupplementary \nlisting \n17.373% FGN Savings Bond \nAUG 2026 \nIssued 1,356,761 units amounting to \nN1,356,761,000 \nNew listing \n \n57 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n18.373% FGN Savings Bond \nAUGUST \n2027 \nIssued 3,752,261 units amounting to \nN3,752,261,000 \nNew listing \n NGX30H5 \nListed Futures Contracts at N3,896.50 \nNew listing \n NGXPENSIONH5 \nListed Futures Contracts at N4,169.50 \nNew listing \nNorrenberger Islamic Fund \nIssued 10,313,727 units amounting to \nN1,031,372,700 \nNew listing \nNorrenberger Turbo (Fixed \nIncome) Fund \nIssued 16,596,527 units amounting to \nN1,659,652,700 \nNew listing \nSterling Financial Holdings \nCompany Plc \n7,197,604,531 ordinary shares of 50 \nKobo each at N4.00 per share. *RIGHT \nISSUE* \nNew listing \nNiger Insurance Plc \nAll trading shares \nDelisting \nResort Savings and Loans \nPlc \nAll trading shares \nDelisting \nRAK Unity Petroleum Plc \nAll trading shares \nDelisting \nSource: Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). \nNotes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not available. \n \n \n2.3.4 Financial Soundness Indicators \nDespite economic headwinds during the review quarter, the \nbanking system remained safe, sound, and stable as reflected in \nthe performance of the financial soundness indicators. \nConsequently, the banking system capital adequacy ratio (CAR) \nimproved by 1.49 percentage point to 14.01 per cent, relative to 12.52 \nper cent in the preceding quarter. The development reflected the \nimprovement of the banks’ total qualifying capital and decrease of risk \nweighted assets. The ratio remained above the 10.0 per cent \nbenchmark for banks with national/regional authorisation, but below the \n15.0 per cent threshold for banks with international authorisation. \nThe banks’ asset quality measured by the ratio of non-performing loans \n(NPL ratio) weakened by 0.68 percentage point to 4.58 per cent, \nrelative to 3.90 per cent at the end-June 2024. The ratio, however, \nremained below the prudential benchmark of 5.0 per cent. \nThe industry Liquidity Ratio (LR) grew by 2.47 percentage points to \n46.06 per cent, relative to the 43.59 per cent in the preceding quarter. \nThe LR remained above the minimum regulatory benchmark of 30.0 per \n \n58 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \ncent, depicting the liquidity sufficiency of the banks and their ability to \nmeet up with their obligations. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n59 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.4 \nEXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS \n \nThe external sector performance improved significantly in \nQ32024, buoyed by higher trade surplus and increase in \nremittance inflow. Consequently, a higher current account surplus \nof US$6.06 billion was recorded in the review period. The financial \naccount recorded a higher net acquisition of financial assets, \ndriven largely by higher foreign currency and deposit holdings by \nresidents and accretion to external reserves. At US$39.29 billion, \nthe level of external reserves could cover 8.91 months of import \nfor goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only. The \naverage exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per cent \nto ₦1,588.64/US$, from ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024. \n \n2.4.1 Current and Capital Account \nThe current account recorded an improved surplus position, \nreflecting a stronger trade surplus and increased remittances \ninflow. The surplus in the current account increased significantly to \nUS$6.06 billion, equivalent to 13.04 per cent of GDP in Q3 2024, from \nUS$3.92 billion or 8.74 per cent of GDP recorded in the preceding \nquarter. The significant increase was driven primarily by a higher \nsurplus in the goods account, attributed to increased export earnings \nand a reduction in import bills. \n \nFigure 41: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion) \n \n \nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nSummary \n \n60 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nMerchandise export earnings increased in Q32024, primarily on \naccount of higher crude oil export receipts, following the \nimproved domestic crude oil production. Aggregate export earnings \nincreased by 1.19 per cent to US$13.10 billion, from US$12.95 billion \nin Q22024. A breakdown showed that oil receipts rose to US$11.23 \nbillion, from US$11.18 billion in Q22024. This reflected the increases in \nthe average price of crude oil to US$85.69 per barrel from US$84.21 \nper barrel and domestic crude oil production to 1.33mbpd from \n1.27mbpd. Crude oil price dynamics during the review period was \nunderlined by sustained supply cuts by OPEC+ members amidst \nongoing geopolitical tensions. The improved production was as a result \nof enhanced security around domestic oil infrastructures. Non-oil export \nreceipts grew to US$1.87 billion from US$1.77 billion in the preceding \nquarter, attributed to increases in re-exports, electricity export, and \nother non-oil export. Crude oil and gas exports remained dominant, \nconstituting 85.71 per cent of the total export, while non-oil export \naccounted for the balance. \n \nMerchandise import bills fell in Q32024, reflecting the decline in \nthe import of non-oil products. Merchandise imports fell by 8.34 per \ncent to US$8.83 billion, from US$9.64 billion in Q22024. Analysis by \ncomposition indicated that oil imports decreased to US$2.89 billion, \nfrom US$3.78 billion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, non-oil \nimports increased slightly to US$5.94 billion, from US$5.85 billion in the \npreceding quarter. The development was due to a decline in the \nindustrial sector import, particularly, for raw materials and machinery. A \nbreakdown of total import revealed that non-oil imports accounted for \n67.27 per cent, while oil imports constituted the balance. \nFurther analysis indicated that the industrial sector, mainly raw \nmaterials and machinery, accounted for the largest share of imports, \nExport \nPerformance \nMerchandise \nImport \n \n61 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nwith 52.95 per cent. This was followed by food products (18.13%), oil \nsector (12.59%), manufactured products (9.52%), transport (3.74%), \nagricultural products (1.61%), and minerals (1.46%). \n \nFigure 42: Import by Classification \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nThe services account deficit narrowed, reflecting reduced \npayments for other business and government services. The deficit \nin the services account narrowed to US$3.16 billion, from US$3.46 \nbillion in Q22024. A disaggregation showed that total payment for \nservices decreased by 3.81 per cent to US$4.39 billion, compared with \nthe levels in the preceding quarter. A breakdown of the components of \nservices indicated that payments for other business services fell to \nUS$0.78 billion from US$1.41 billion in Q22024, while payments for \ngovernment goods and services decreased to US$0.18 billion, from \nUS$0.13 billion in Q22024. In contrast, payments for transport, travel, \nfinancial \nservices, \ninsurance \n& \npension \nservices, \nand \ntelecommunication services increased to US$1.49 billion (5.62%), \nUS$1.17 billion (7.17%), US$0.19 billion (44.76%), US$0.15 billion \n(16.10%), and US$0.34 billion (258.67%), respectively. \nIndustrial sector, \n52.95%\nFood products, 18.13%\nManufactured \nproducts, 9.52%\nTransport, 3.74%\nAgriculture, 1.61%\nOil sector, 12.59%\nMinerals, 1.46%\n \nServices \n \n62 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nAnalysis of total payment for services showed that transport services \naccounted for 34.00 per cent, followed by travel services (26.74%), \nother business services (17.79%), and telecommunications services \n(7.76%). Other contributors were financial services (4.40), government \ngoods & services (4.06%), and insurance & pension services (3.47%), \nwhile “others” accounted for the balance. \n \nFigure 43: Share of Service Out-Payments in Per cent \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria. \n \nReceipts from services increased by 11.19 per cent to US$1.23 billion \nin Q32024 due, mainly, to higher inflows from insurance & pension \nservices and financial services. Receipts from transport services rose \nby 2.67 per cent to US$0.58 billion. Insurance & pension services \nreceipt also increased significantly to US$0.07 billion, from US$0.02 \nbillion in the preceding quarter. In addition, receipts from financial \nservices and government services increased by 37.48, and 5.49 per \ncent, respectively. Conversely, receipts from travel services and other \nbusiness services declined by 31.44 and 14.02 per cent, respectively, \nto US$0.06 billion, and US$0.02 billion, compared with the levels in the \npreceding quarter. \nOf the total services receipts, transport services constituted 47.06 per \ncent, followed by financial services (26.37%), government goods & \nTransport, 34\nTravel, 26.74\nOther \nbusiness \nservices, \n17.79\nInsurance and \npension, 3.47\nFinancial \nservices, 4.4\nTelecommunica\ntion, 7.76\nGovernment \ngoods and \nservices, \n4.06\nOthers, 1.78\n \n63 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nservices (10.28%), insurance and pension services (5.59%), travels \n(5.20%), and telecommunication services (3.89%). Other services \naccounted for the balance. \n \nFigure 44: Share of Services Receipts \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nThe deficit in the primary income account narrowed, reflecting \nhigher interest earnings from reserve assets and reinvested \nearnings from residents. The deficit reduced to US$1.06 billion in \nQ32024, from US$1.76 billion in Q22024, attributed to increased \ninterest earnings from reserve assets and reinvested earnings from \nresidents. A disaggregation indicated a lower deficit of US$1.13 billion \nin the investment income sub-account, compared with US$1.83 billion \nin Q22024. The surplus in the compensation of employees account \nincreased by 13.66 per cent to US$0.07 billion, from the level in the \npreceding quarter. \n \n \n \nTransport, 47.06%\nFinancial, 26.37%\nGovernment , 10.28%\nInsurance, 5.59%\nTravels, 5.20%\nTelecom, 3.89%Others, 1.61%\nPrimary Income \n \n64 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nFigure 45: Primary Income Balance \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \nThe secondary income account posted an increased surplus \nposition, due to a higher inflow of remittances. The surplus in the \nsecondary income account rose by 2.91 per cent to US$6.01 billion in \nQ32024, from the level in the preceding quarter. The improvement was \ndriven by higher private sector transfers, particularly workers' \nremittances, which increased to US$5.40 billion from US$5.35 billion in \nQ22024. In addition, general government transfers also grew by 23.21 \nper cent to US$0.69 billion from US$0.50 billion in the preceding \nquarter. \n \nFigure 46: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow \n(US$ Billion) \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria. \nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nUS$ Billion\n5.58\n5.31\n5.74\n5.76\n5.84\n6.01\n4.80\n5.00\n5.20\n5.40\n5.60\n5.80\n6.00\n6.20\n0.00\n1.00\n2.00\n3.00\n4.00\n5.00\n6.00\nQ22023\nQ32023\nQ42023\nQ12024\nQ22024\nQ32024\nRemittances\nGovernment transfers\nSecondary income balance\nSecondary \nIncome \n \n65 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n2.4.2 Financial Account \n The financial account recorded a higher net acquisition of \nfinancial assets, driven largely by higher foreign currency and \ndeposit holdings by residents and accretion to external reserves. \nThe financial account recorded net acquisition of financial asset of \nUS$4.03 billion, compared with US$0.31 billion in Q22024. \n \nThe economy recorded a higher inflow of US$6.44 billion, relative to \nUS$1.48 billion in the preceding quarter. The development was due to \nan increase in central bank liabilities and incurrence of loans by the \ngovernment. A disaggregation showed that ‘Other investment’ liabilities \nrecorded a net inflow US$4.06 billion, in contrast to a net reduction of \nUS$3.50 billion in Q22024, due to increased loan liabilities. Foreign \ndirect investment liabilities also increased to US$0.56 billion from \nUS$0.52 billion in Q22024. Conversely, portfolio investment decreased \nto US$1.92 billion, from US$4.42 billion in Q22024, due to a decline in \ndebt securities. \n \nFinancial assets acquired by resident investors increased significantly \nto US$10.47 billion in Q32024, compared with US$1.79 billion in the \npreceding quarter. The development was as a result of the increase in \nforeign currency and deposit holdings by residents to US$5.49 billion \nfrom withdrawals of US$0.83 billion in Q22024 and the accretion to \nreserve assets of US$4.21 billion, compared with US$2.47 billion in \nQ22024. Direct investment assets increased to US$0.63 billion, relative \nto US$0.15 billion in the preceding quarter. ‘Other investment’ asset \nincreased significantly to US$5.53 billion, against a disposal of US$1.15 \nbillion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, portfolio investments \ndecreased marginally by 0.70 per cent to US$0.21 billion, compared \nwith the level in Q22024. \n \nNet Incurrence \nof Liability \nFinancial \nAccount \nDevelopments \nNet Acquisition \nof Asset \n \n66 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n \n2.4.3 External Debt \n \nNigeria’s external debt stock at end-June 2024, stood at US$42.90 \nbillion (23.90% of GDP). A breakdown of external debt stock showed \nthat the multilateral loans, including loans from the World Bank Group, \nInternational Monetary Fund, and African Development Bank Group, \namounted to US$21.62 billion, accounting for 50.41 per cent of the total \nexternal debt stock. Commercial loans (Euro Bonds) amounted to \nUS$15.12 billion (35.24%). Loans from bilateral sources was US$5.89 \nbillion (13.72%), and syndicated loans (African Finance Corporation) \nstood at US$0.27 billion (0.63%). \nExternal debt service payments at end-June 2024 stood at US$1.12 \nbillion. A breakdown showed that interest payments totalling US$0.40 \nbillion, accounted for 35.71 per cent of the debt service payment. \nPrincipal repayments was US$0.58 billion (51.79% of the total), while \nother payments accounted for the balance. Analysis of interest \npayments showed that commercial borrowings accounted for 74.72 per \ncent of the total at US$0.30 billion, while interest payments to \nmultilateral institutions amounted to US$0.09 billion (23.45%). Interest \non bilateral loans accounted for the balance. \n \n2.4.4 International Investment Position \n \nThe international investment position posted a lower net financial \nliability. The stock of financial assets rose to US$107.49 billion in \nQ32024, from US$114.13 billion in the preceding quarter driven, \nprimarily, by an increase other investment assets and reserve assets. \nOther investment assets and reserve assets increased by 11.69 per \ncent and 13.02 per cent to US$52.82 billion and US$39.29 billion, \nrespectively, from the levels in the preceding quarter. Similarly, direct \ninvestment and portfolio investment assets grew to US$17.33 billion, \nExternal Debt \nInternational \nInvestment \nPosition \n \n67 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nand US$4.58 billion, respectively, from US$16.67 billion and US$4.37 \nbillion in the preceding quarter. \nThe stock of financial liabilities rose to US$174.29 billion in Q32024, \nfrom US$167.88 billion in Q22024, driven largely by a 4.64 per cent \nincrease in \"other investment’’ liabilities to US$74.30 billion. Direct \ninvestment liabilities also increased to US$68.66 billion, from US$66.09 \nbillion recorded in Q22024. Similarly, portfolio investment liabilities \nincreased to US$31.25 billion from US$30.61 billion in Q22024. \n \n2.4.5. International Reserves \nThe external reserves increased and remained above the \nbenchmark of 3 months of import cover during the review quarter. \nThe external reserves rose to US$39.29 billion, from US$34.76 billion \nat end-September 2024. This level of reserves could cover 8.91 months \nof import for goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only. \nFigure 44: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \n \n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\n12.00\n14.00\n16.00\n0.00\n10.00\n20.00\n30.00\n40.00\n50.00\nQ2 2023\nQ3 2023\nQ4 2023\nQ1 2024\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\nUS$ Billion\nExternal Reserves - LHS\nMonths of Import (Goods)-RHS\nMonths of Import (Goods and Services)-RHS\nInternational \nReserves \n \n68 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.4.7 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy \nNet foreign exchange inflow through the economy rose in the \nreview quarter driven, largely, by inflow through the Bank. Foreign \nexchange inflow through the economy increased by 3.01 per cent to \nUS$22.89 billion, from US$22.22 billion in Q22024. Inflows through the \nBank rose by 39.63 per cent to US$11.86 billion from US$8.49 billion, \nwhile autonomous sources fell by 19.66 per cent to US$11.03 billion \nfrom US$13.72 billion in the preceding quarter. \nForeign exchange outflow through the economy rose by 15.18 per cent \nto US$8.43 billion, relative to the level in Q22024. Outflows through the \nBank, rose by 27.91 per cent to US$7.31 billion, while those through \nautonomous sources decreased by 30.06 per cent to US$1.12 billion. \nConsequently, net foreign exchange inflow through the economy \ndecreased by 2.97 per cent to US$14.46 billion, from US$14.89 billion \nin the preceding quarter. However, net inflow through autonomous \nsources fell to US$9.90 billion, from US$12.12 billion in the preceding \nquarter. A net inflow of US$4.55 billion was recorded through the Bank \ncompared with a net outflow of US$2.78 billion in the preceding quarter. \n \nFigure 48: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy \n(US$ Billion)\n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \nQ3 2023\nQ2 2024\nQ3 2024\nInflow\nOutflow\nNetflow\n14.90\nInflow\nOutflow\nNetflow\nForeign \nExchange Flows \nthrough the \nEconomy \n \n69 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement \n The average exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per \ncent to ₦1,588.64/US$, from ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024, owing to \nincreased demand pressure. \n \nFigure 49: Turnover in the NFEM \n \nSource: Central Bank of Nigeria \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nQ2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024\nPERCENT\nUS $ (M) \n Average Turnover(LHS)\nRate of Turnover(RHS)\nAverage \nExchange Rate \n \n70 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \n3.0 \nGlobal Outlook \nGlobal output growth is expected to moderate, unevenly across \nregions. Global economic growth is expected to moderate slightly to \n3.20 per cent in 2024, down from 3.30 per cent in 2023, influenced by \nrising consumer price pressures and potential fiscal tightening, even as \nconsumer demand remains strong across both advanced economies \n(AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). \nIn AEs, growth is forecasted to remain steady at 1.70 per cent in 2024, \nwith a slight increase to 1.80 per cent in 2025, driven by sustained \ndemand in the US and higher consumption, as well as increased \ninvestment in the Euro area. Growth in EMDEs is projected to moderate \nto 4.30 per cent in both 2024 and 2025, on account of geopolitical \nconflicts, moderation in demand and near-term impact of flooding. \nGlobal headline inflation is projected to decline from 6.70 per cent in \n2023 to 5.90 per cent in 2024 and further to 4.40 per cent in 2025. This \nmoderation in inflation pressures is due largely, to tight monetary \npolicies, a cooling labour market, and declining energy prices. \n \n3.1 \nDomestic Outlook \nFor the remaining three months in year 2024, inflation is expected \nto remain elevated. This expected rise is on account of the impact of \nongoing policy reforms, leading to an increase in both energy and \ntransport costs. However, the Bank’s sustained contractionary stance, \nthe relative stability at the foreign exchange market, as well as the \ncontinuous harvest of some food staple could contribute in moderating \ninflation. \nFiscal outlook remains bright in the near- to medium-term, as fiscal \nreforms continue to exert favourable outcome, evident in contracting \n \n71 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report \nQ32024 \nECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024 \n \nfiscal deficit and higher revenue collection. The volatility in global crude \noil prices coupled with low production vis-à-vis the OPEC quota are \nhowever risks to the outlook. \nThe external sector is expected to remain strong in 2024, driven by \nsustained improvements in trade surplus, higher domestic crude oil \nproduction, and the full operation of the Dangote and Port Harcourt \nrefineries. Global economic conditions are also anticipated to be \nsupportive, with easing inflation in advanced economies which will \nstimulate trade and investment.", "source": "CBN", "stratum": "cb_requests", "fetch_date": "2026-05-11", "url": "file:///CBN/Quarterly_Economic_Reports/Q3 2024 ECONOMIC REPORT.pdf"}
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