{"doc_id": "0628cfe42a76f8fd29c1934bc0bbfe68", "text": "ECONOMIC REPORT \nTHIRD QUARTER 2018 \n \n \n \nCENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage ii \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nThe Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination \nof financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The \nReport analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the \neconomy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at \na wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government \nand the private sector, as well as general readers. \n \n \n \n \nSubscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations, \nembassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue \nwithout a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank \nof Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria. \n \nThe Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage iii \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nContents \n1.0 \nSummary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 \n2.0 \nFinancial Sector Developments .................................................................................................... 3 \n2.1 \nMonetary and Credit Developments ............................................................................................ 3 \n2.2 \nCurrency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at the CBN ................................................................. 7 \n2.3 \nMoney Market Developments ...................................................................................................... 7 \n2.3.1 \nInterest Rate Developments ................................................................................................. 8 \n2.3.2 \nCommercial Papers (CPs) ...................................................................................................... 9 \n2.3.3 \nBankers’ Acceptances (BAs) .................................................................................................. 9 \n2.3.4 \nOpen Market Operations .................................................................................................... 10 \n2.3.5 \nPrimary Market ................................................................................................................... 10 \n2.3.6 \nBonds Market ...................................................................................................................... 10 \n2.3.7 \nCBN Standing Facilities ........................................................................................................ 11 \n2.4 \nDeposit Money Banks’ Activities ................................................................................................. 11 \n2.5 \nCapital Market Developments .................................................................................................... 12 \n2.5.1 \nSecondary Market ............................................................................................................... 12 \n2.5.2 \nNew Issues Market .............................................................................................................. 13 \n2.5.3 \nMarket Capitalisation .......................................................................................................... 13 \n2.5.4 \nNSE All-Share Index ............................................................................................................. 14 \n3.0 \nFiscal Operations ........................................................................................................................ 15 \n3.1 \nFederation Account Operations .................................................................................................. 15 \n3.2 \nThe Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of Government ........................................................... 18 \n3.2.1 \nThe Federal Government .................................................................................................... 18 \n3.2.2 \nStatutory Allocations to State Governments ...................................................................... 20 \n3.2.3 \nStatutory Allocations to Local Government Councils ......................................................... 20 \n4.0 \nDomestic Economic Conditions .................................................................................................. 21 \n4.1 \nAgricultural Sector ...................................................................................................................... 21 \n4.2 \nAgricultural Credit Guarrantee Scheme Operations ................................................................... 21 \n4.3 \nCommercial Agricultural Credit Scheme Operations .................................................................. 22 \n4.4 \nIndustrial Production .................................................................................................................. 22 \n4.5 \nPetroleum Sector ........................................................................................................................ 24 \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage iv \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n4.6 \nConsumer Prices ......................................................................................................................... 26 \n5.0 \nExternal Sector Developments ................................................................................................... 29 \n5.1 \nForeign Exchange Flows .............................................................................................................. 29 \n5.2 \nNon-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters ......................................................................................... 31 \n5.3 \nSectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange .................................................................................... 31 \n5.4 \nForeign Exchange Market Developments ................................................................................... 32 \n5.5 \nGross External Reserves .............................................................................................................. 35 \n6.0 \nGlobal Economic Conditions.. ..................................................................................................... 37 \n6.1 \nGlobal Output.............................................................................................................................. 37 \n6.2 \nGlobal Inflation ............................................................................................................................ 38 \n6.3 \nGlobal Commodity Demand and Prices ...................................................................................... 38 \n6.4 \nInternational Financial Markets .................................................................................................. 39 \n6.5 \nOther International Economic Development and Meetings ....................................................... 40 \n \nText Tables \nTable 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates .................................................................................................... 7 \nTable 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages) .................................................................................................... 9 \nTable 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) .............................................................................. 13 \nTable 4: New and Supplementary Listings ................................................................................................................... 13 \nTable 5: Market Capitalisation and All Share Index (ASI) ............................................................................................ 14 \nTable 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue ............................................................................................................... 16 \nTable 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue ................................................................................................................ 16 \nTable 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue ........................................................................................................ 17 \nTable 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers ........................................................... 18 \nTable 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations ....................................................................................................... 19 \nTable 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme ............................................... 22 \nTable 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation Rate ............................................. 24 \nTable 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market ............................................................................ 25 \nTable 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009 = 100) ........................................................................................... 27 \nTable 15: Headline Inflation Rate ................................................................................................................................ 27 \nTable 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN .................................................................................................. 30 \nTable 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange .............................................................................................. 33 \nTable 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium .......................................................................... 34 \nTable 19: Gross External Reserves ............................................................................................................................... 36 \n \nAppendix Tables \nTable A1: Money and Credit Aggregates ....................................................................................................... 45 \nTable A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates) ......................................................................... 46 \nTable A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations ........................................................................................ 47 \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage v \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigures \nFigure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2) ..................................................... 4 \nFigure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy .................................................. 6 \nFigure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average) .......................................................................................... 9 \nFigure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities ......................................................................................... 13 \nFigure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index .................................................................................... 14 \nFigure 6: Components of Gross Federally-Collected Revenue ................................................................. 15 \nFigure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components ......................................................................................... 16 \nFigure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components ................................................................................ 17 \nFigure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue ....................................................................................... 19 \nFigure 10: Federal Government Expenditure .................................................................................................. 20 \nFigure 11: Capacity Utilisation Rate................................................................................................................... 23 \nFigure 12: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100) .................................................................................... 24 \nFigure 13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices .................................................................................................................. 25 \nFigure 14: Consumer Price Index ........................................................................................................................ 26 \nFigure 15: Inflation Rate ........................................................................................................................................ 27 \nFigure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN .................................................................................. 30 \nFigure 17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange ...................................................................................... 32 \nFigure 18: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange ........................................................................... 33 \nFigure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements .......................................................................................... 34 \nFigure 20: Exchange Rate Premium .................................................................................................................. 35 \nFigure 21: Gross External Reserves ..................................................................................................................... 36 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage vi \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 1 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n 1.0 Summary1 \nThe Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary policy stance in \nAugust 2018, aimed at further curbing inflationary pressure. Broad \nmoney supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, fell by 2.4 per cent \nto N33,607.64 billion at end-August 2018, in contrast to the growth of \n2.0 per cent at end-June 2018. The development reflected, mainly, \nthe 3.4 per cent decrease in domestic credit (net) of the banking \nsystem. Over the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply, \n(M3), grew by 7.9 per cent, due to 18.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent \nincrease in foreign assets (net) and other assets (net) of the banking \nsystem, respectively. On quarter-on-quarter basis, narrow money \nsupply (M1), fell by 6.9 per cent, due, to 2.3 per cent and 7.7 per \ncent decrease in its currency outside banks and demand deposits \ncomponents, respectively. \nDevelopments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while lending \nrates trended downwards in the review quarter. With the exception \nof the 1-month and 12-months deposit rates, which rose by 0.28 and \n0.07 percentage point to 9.12 per cent and 10.07 per cent, \nrespectively, all other deposit rates of various maturities fell from a \nrange 3.75 – 10.67 per cent to 3.65 – 9.85 per cent at end-September \n2018. The average savings rate remain unchanged at 4.07 per cent, \nsame as at the end of the second quarter of 2018, while the \naverage term deposit rate fell by 0.20 percentage points to 8.52 per \ncent at end of the review quarter. The average prime and maximum \nlending rates declined by 0.46 percentage point and 0.48 \npercentage point to 16.70 per cent and 30.95 per cent, respectively. \nConsequently, the spread between the weighted average term \ndeposits and maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.28 percentage \npoints to 22.43 percentage points at end-September 2018. Likewise, \nthe spread between the weighted average savings and the \nmaximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.48 percentage points to \n26.87 percentage points. The weighted average inter-bank call rate \nfell by 7.02 percentage points to 5.92 per cent at end-September \n2018. \nThe total value of money market assets outstanding increased by 1.4 \nper cent to N11,848.96 billion, at end-September 2018. The \ndevelopment was attributed to the increase in commercial papers, \nbanker’s acceptance and FGN Bonds in the review quarter. \nDevelopments on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were generally \nbearish. \n \n1 Data on monetary aggregates, government spending and foreign \nexchange flows are provisional and subject to changes \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 2 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFederally-collected revenue, at N2,524.59 billion, in the third quarter \nof 2018, was 24.0 per cent lower than the proportionate budget \nestimate, but was 8.9 per cent above the receipts in the preceding \nquarter. The development relative to budget estimate was due to \nthe shortfall in receipts from bth oil and non-oil revenue in the review \nquarter. Federal Government estimated retained revenue and total \nexpenditure were N950.61 billion and N1,050.94 billion, respectively, \nresulting in an estimated deficit of N100.33 billion in the third quarter \nof 2018. \nDespite the few cases of flash flooding, which affected farmlands in \nparts of the country, agricultural activities were generally boosted in \nthe third quarter of 2018, as a result of widespread rainfall across the \ncountry. Farming activities were dominated by harvesting of early \nmaturing crops and breeding of poultry birds in anticipation of end \nof year sales. The end-period inflation, on year-on-year and 12-\nmonth moving average bases for the review period were estimated \nat 11.28 per cent and 13.16 per cent, respectively. \nForeign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to \nUS$12.95 billion and US$16.93 billion, respectively, resulting in a net \noutflow of US$3.98 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the \nauthorised dealers amounted to US$11.88 billion. The average \nexchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar depreciated to \nN306.03/US$ and N362.42/US$ at the inter-bank segment and the \nInvestors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) Window respectively, while at the BDC \nsegment, it appreciated to N359.21/US$ in the review quarter. The \nexternal reserves decreased by 9.6 per cent to US$42.61 billion as at \nSeptember 28, 2018. \nWorld crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 99.38 mbd \nand 99.09 mbd, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018. Nigeria’s \ncrude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, \nwas estimated at an average of 1.84 mbd or 169.28 million barrels \n(mb) in the review quarter. The average price of Nigeria’s reference \ncrude, the Bonny Light (370 API), was US$76.36 per barrel, compared \nwith US$75.43 per barrel in the second quarter of 2018. \nMajor international developments of importance to the domestic \neconomy in the review quarter included: the international Monetary \nFund’s (IMF) Mid-Year Staff Consultations with Nigeria held from June \n27- July 9, 2018; the Afreximbank Annual Meetings (AAM), held in \nAbuja, Nigeria from July 11 – 14, 2018; and the 2018 Mid-Year \nStatutory Meetings of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), West \nAfrican Monetary Agency (WAMA) and the West African Institute for \nFinancial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) held in Abuja, \nNigeria from September 6 – 14, 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 3 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n2.0 Financial Sector Developments2 \nOver the level at end-June 2018, broad money supply (M3), fell by \n2.4 per cent, reflecting the 3.4 per cent decrease in domestic credit \n(net) of the banking system. Narrow money supply (M1) fell by 6.9 \nper cent due to decrease in both currency outside banks and \ndemand deposits components. Developments in banks’ deposit \nrates were mixed, while the lending rates trended downward in the \nreview quarter. The value of money market assets outstanding rose \nabove the level in the preceding quarter. Activities on the Nigerian \nStock Exchange (NSE) were generally bearish in the third quarter of \n2018. \n2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments \nThe Bank’s Monetary policy stance remained, largely, non-\nexpansionary in the review period. Consequently, broad \nmoney supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, fell by 2.4 per \ncent to N33,607.64 billion as at end-August, 2018, in contrast to \nthe growth of 2.0 per cent and 5.2 per cent at end-June 2018 \nand the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The \ndevelopment reflected the 3.4 per cent contraction in \ndomestic credit (net), which more than offset the respective \nincrease of 0.6 per cent in foreign assets (net) and other assets \n(net) of the banking system. Similarly, narrow money supply \n(M1) fell by 6.9 per cent, relative to the level at end-June 2018 \nand reflected the 2.3 per cent and 7.7 per cent decrease in \ncurrency outside banks and demand deposits, respectively. \nOver the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply, \n(M3), grew by 7.9 per cent at end-August 2018, compared \nwith the growth of 8.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent at end of the \nsecond quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2017, \nrespectively. The development reflected the increase of 18.6 \nper cent and 6.2 per cent in foreign assets (net) and other \nassets (net) of the banking system, respectively. \nOver the level at end-December 2017, narrow money supply \n(M1) fell by 6.5 per cent, compared with the 4.3 per cent \ndecline at the end of the preceding quarter. This reflected \nthe decline in both its currency outside banks and demand \ndeposits components. \n \n2 All monetary aggregate numbers are provisional and subject to revision \nGrwoth in key \nmonetary aggregates \nwere moderate in the \nreview period. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 4 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nAt end-August 2018, quasi-money rose by 3.4 per cent to \nN14,411.19 billion, compared with the increase of 5.4 per cent \nand 1.4 per cent at end-June 2018 and the corresponding \nperiod of 2017, respectively. The development reflected the \nincrease in time and savings deposits of commercial banks. \nRelative to the level at end-December 2017, quasi-money \ngrew by 11.2 per cent at end-August 2018, compared with the \nincrease of 8.9 per cent at end of the second quarter of 2018, \nbut in contrast to the decline of 2.9 per cent at the end of the \ncorresponding period of 2017. The development was due to \nthe increase in time and savings deposits of banks (Figure 1, \nTable 1). \nFigure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3 \n \nSource: CBN \nAggregate credit to the domestic economy, on quarter-on-\nquarter basis fell by 3.4 per cent to N24,848.63 billion at end-\nAugust 2018, compared with the decline of 6.3 per cent and \n0.1 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development \nreflected, wholly, the 32.2 per cent decrease in net claims on \nthe Federal Government. Over the level at end-December \n \n3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent \ncumulative changes (year-to-date). \n-15\n-10\n-5\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n-15\n-10\n-5\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\n30\n35\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nAugust-18\nQuarterly (%) \nCumulative (%) \nQM1 (RHS)\nQM3 (RHS)\nCM1 (LHS)\nCM3 (LHS)\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 5 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n2017, aggregate credit to the domestic economy fell by 4.2 \nper cent, compared with the decline of 1.4 per cent and 0.1 \nper cent at end-June 2018 and the corresponding period of \n2017, respectively. The development reflected, mainly, the \ndecline in net claims on the Federal Government. \nNet claims on the Federal Government, at end-August 2018, \nfell by 32.2 per cent to N2,378.39 billion, compared with the \ndecrease of 33.4 per cent at the end of the preceding \nquarter. The development was due, wholly, to the significant \nfall in loans to the Federal Government by CBN during the \nreview period. Over the level at end-December 2017, net \nclaims on the Federal Government fell by 34.7 per cent at \nend-August 2018, compared with the decline of 9.7 per cent \nand 1.1 per cent at the end of the second quarter of 2018 \nand \ncorresponding \nperiod \nof \n2017, \nrespectively. \nThe \ndevelopment was due, wholly, to the decline in the banking \nsystem’s holdings of Government securities. \nOn quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system’s credit to the \nprivate sector grew by 1.2 per cent to N22,470.24 billion at \nend-August 2018, in contrast to the decline of 0.4 per cent \nand 0.1 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development \nwas due to the 1.7 per cent and 0.7 per cent increase in \nclaims on the core private sector and claims on state and \nlocal governments, respectively. Over the level at end-\nDecember 2017, banking system’s credit to the private sector \ngrew by 0.8 per cent, in constrat to the decline of 0.04 per \ncent at end of the second quarter of 2018. The development \nwas due to the rise in claims on the core private sector and \nclaims on state and local governments, respectively (Figure \n2,Table 1). \n \n \n \n \nBanking system’s \ncredit to the Federal \nGovernment fell in the \nreview period. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 6 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy4 \n \nSource: CBN \nForeign assets (net) of the banking system grew by 0.6 per \ncent to N18,411.93 billion at end-August 2018, compared with \nthe respective growth of 12.4 per cent and 14.0 per cent at \nthe end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding \nperiod of 2017. The development was attributed to the 14.4 \nper cent and 0.4 per cent increase in foreign asset holdings of \nbanks and the CBN, respectively. Over the level at end-\nDecember 2017, foreign assets (net) of the banking system \ngrew by 18.6 per cent at end-August 2018, compared with the \ngrowth of 18.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent at end-June 2018 \nand the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. This \nreflected the 18.9 per cent and 8.3 per cent increase in the \nforeign assets holdings of CBN and banks, respectively. \nAt end-August 2018, other assets (net) of the banking system \ngrew by 0.6 per cent to negative N9,652.92 billion. This was in \ncontrast to the decline of 3.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent at the \nend of the second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding \nperiod of 2017, respectively. The development was attributed \nto the increase in unclassified assets of DMB’s. Over the level \nat end- December 2017, other assets (net) of the banking \nsystem grew by 6.2 per cent, compared with the respective \nincrease of 2.0 per cent and 5.9 per cent at the end of the \nsecond quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of \n2017. \n \n4 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to \ngovernment (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP, CCG \n \n-40\n-30\n-20\n-10\n0\n10\n20\n30\n40\n-40\n-30\n-20\n-10\n0\n10\n20\n30\n40\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nAug-18\nQuarterly (%) \nCumulative (%) \nQCP (RHS)\nQCG (RHS)\nQAC (RHS)\nForeign assets (net) \nof the banking \nsystem grew at the \nend of the review \nperiod. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 7 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over \nPreceding Quarter \nAug-17\nSep-17\nDec-17\nMar-18\nJun-18\nAug-18\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n-0.1\n0.5\n3.5\n5.3\n-6.3\n-3.4\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n0.3\n1.8\n-25.3\n35.4\n-33.4\n-32.2\n Claims on Private Sector\n-0.1\n0.2\n1.4\n0.3\n-0.4\n1.2\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n-0.1\n-1.1\n-1.2\n-1.2\n0.1\n1.7\nForeign Assets (Net)\n14.0\n9.9\n69.6\n5.1\n12.4\n0.6\nOther Assets (Net)\n-3.8\n4.2\n-37.2\n-1.6\n-3.6\n0.6\nBroad Money Supply (M3)\n5.2\n4.7\n9.3\n6.4\n2.0\n-2.4\nQuasi-Money\n1.4\n-3.5\n5.2\n3.3\n5.4\n3.4\nNarrow Money Supply (M1)\n-3.6\n-10.7\n-0.9\n-1.3\n-3.0\n-6.9\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n-0.3\n-4.9\n10.9\n4.2\n-5.9\n-1.2\n \nSource: CBN \n*figures are provisional \n2.2 \nCurrency-in-circulation and Deposits at the \nCBN \n \nCurrency-in-circulation (CIC) at end-August 2018, rose by 1.8 \nper cent to N1,928.74 billion over the level at the end of the \nsecond quarter of 2018, compared with the decline of 6.8 per \ncent at end-June 2018. The development relative to the \npreceding quarter reflected, mainly, the increase in its \ncurrency outside banks component. \n \nTotal deposits at the CBN amounted to N15,099.50 billion at \nend-August 2018, indicating a 11.6 per cent increase above \nthe level at end-June 2018. The development was as a result \nof the rise in the deposits of the Federal Government and \nbanks, while deposits of the private sector declined. Of the \ntotal deposits at the CBN, the shares of the Federal \nGovernment, banks and private sector deposits were 49.4 per \ncent, 31.5 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively. \nReserve money rose by 3.2 per cent to N6,688.52 billion at \nend-August 2018, in contrast with the decline of 5.9 per cent \nat end-June 2018. The development reflected the increase in \ntotal bank reserves. \n2.3 \nMoney Market Developments \nThe money market was generally stable in the third quarter of \n2018. Liquidity was buoyed by inflow from fiscal injections, \nFederal Government (FGN) Bonds, Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) \nand Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bills. Withdrawals arising \nfrom CBN interventions through Open Market Operations \nThe money market \nwas relatively stable \nduring the review \nperiod . \nReserve money (RM) \nrose at the end of the \nreview period. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 8 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n(OMO), however, moderated liquidity. In addition, settlement \nfor the sales of Government securities and foreign exchange \nimpacted on market liquidity. Overall, banks continued to \naccess the intra-day and standing facilities window to meet \ntheir short-term liquidity needs during the review quarter. \nTotal value of money market assets outstanding at the end of \nthe third quarter of 2018 was N11,848.96 billion, showing an \nincrease of 1.36 per cent, in contrast to 3.02 per cent fall, at \nthe end of the second quarter of 2018. The development was \nattributed to the significant increase in commercial papers, \nbanker’s acceptance and FGN Bond, outstanding during the \nreview quarter. \n2.3.1 \n Interest Rate Developments \nDevelopments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while \nlending rates trended downwards in the third quarter of 2018. \nWith the exception of 1-month deposit rates and 12-month \ndeposit rates, which rose by 0.28 and 0.07 percentage point \nto 9.12 per cent and 10.07 per cent, respectively, all other \ndeposits rates of various maturities fell from a range of 3.75 – \n10.67 per cent to 3.65 – 9.85 per cent at end-September 2018. \nThe average savings rate remain unchanged at 4.07 per cent, \nsame as at the end of the second quarter of 2018, while the \naverage term deposit rate fell by 0.20 percentage point to \n8.52 per cent at end-September 2018. \nThe average prime and maximum lending rates declined by \n0.46 percentage point and 0.48 percentage point to 16.70 per \ncent and 30.95 per cent, respectively, at end-Spetmebr 2018. \nConsequently, the spread between the weighted average \nterm deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.28 \npercentage point to 22.43 per cent at end-September 2018. \nSimilarly, the spread between the average savings and the \nmaximum lending rates narrowed by 0.48 percentage point \nto 26.87 per cent. With the headline inflation at 11.28 per cent \nat end-September 2018, all deposit rates were negative in real \nterms, while lending rates were positive. \nAt the inter-bank funds segment, the weighted average inter-\nbank call rate, which stood at 12.94 per cent at end-June \n2018, fell by 7.02 percentage points to 5.92 per cent at end-\nSeptember 2018. Similarly, the Nigeria inter-bank offered rate \nInter-bank call rate \nfell in Q3 2018. \nBanks’ lending rates \ntrended downwards, \nwhile deposit rates \nexhibited mixed \ndevelopments. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 9 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n(NIBOR) for the 30-day tenor fell from 13.03 per cent at end-\nJune 2018 to 12.66 per cent at end-September 2018. Also, the \nweighted average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment \nfell by 1.32 percentage points to 9.31 per cent at the end of \nthe review quarter (Figure 3, Table 2). \nFigure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)\n \nSource: CBN \nTable 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages) \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nAverage Term Deposits\n6.16\n7.75\n8.52\n8.82\n8.87\n8.77\n8.34\n8.72\n8.52\nPrime Lending\n17.14\n17.08\n17.16\n17.54\n17.74\n17.66\n17.31\n17.16\n16.70\nInterbank\n23.42\n20.67\n12.95\n33.11\n18.45\n24.02\n18.98\n12.94\n5.92\nMaximum Lending\n27.25\n28.26\n29.44\n30.67\n31.18\n31.30\n31.61\n31.43\n30.95\n Source: CBN \n \n2.3.2 \nCommercial Paper (CP) \nCommercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by banks amounted \nto N23.33 billion in the third quarter, compared with N6.29 \nbillion at end-June 2018. The development was due to the \nincrease in investments in CP by the merchant banks during \nthe review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.20 per cent of the \ntotal value of money market assets outstanding during the \nreview period, compared with 0.05 per cent in the preceding \nquarter. \n \n \n \n0.0\n2.5\n5.0\n7.5\n10.0\n12.5\n15.0\n17.5\n20.0\n22.5\n25.0\n0.0\n2.5\n5.0\n7.5\n10.0\n12.5\n15.0\n17.5\n20.0\n22.5\n25.0\n27.5\n30.0\n32.5\n35.0\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nPercent per Annum \nPercent per Annum \nPrime\nInterbank\nMaximum\nAverage Term Deposits (RHS)\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 10 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n2.3.3 \nBankers’ Acceptances (BAs) \nBankers’ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N10.77 \nbillion in the third quarter of 2018, compared with N3.31 billion \nat the end of the second quarter of 2018. The development \nwas attributed to investments in BAs by commercial banks \nduring the review quarter. Consequently, BAs accounted for \n0.09 per cent of the total value of money market assets \noutstanding at end-September 2018, compared with 0.03 per \ncent at the end of the preceding quarter. \n \n2.3.4 Open Market Operations \nThe Bank sustained its intervention through direct Open Market \nOperation (OMO) auction during the review quarter. The \ntenors to maturity of the instruments ranged from 49 days to \n364 days. Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted \nwere N7,000.00 billion, N3,869.65 billion, and N3,327.51 billion, \nrespectively. The bid rates ranged from 10.0000 per cent to \n15.5000 per cent, while the stop rates ranged from 10.0000 per \ncent to 13.5000 per cent. Repayment of matured CBN bills \namounted to N4,997.52 billion, translating to a net injection of \nN1,670.01 billion. \n2.3.5 \nPrimary Market \nAt the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364-\nday tenors, amounting to N1,123.33 billion, N1,555.00 billion \nand N983.77 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted, \nrespectively, at the auctions held in the third quarter of 2018, \non behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total \nsubscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were N73.11 \nbillion and N59.07 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged \nfrom 9.6500 per cent to 14.0000 per cent, while the stop rates \nranged from 10.0000 per cent to 11.0000 per cent. \nFor the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were \nN198.75 billion and N191.23 billion, respectively. The bid rates \nranged from 10.0000 per cent to 14.4000 per cent, while the \nstop rates ranged from 10.4000 per cent to 12.3000 per cent. \nTotal subscription and allotment at the 364-day auction were \nN1,283.13 billion and N733.47 billion, respectively. The bill rates \nranged from 10.7500 per cent to 20.0000 per cent, while stop \nrates ranged from 11.3000 per cent to 13.5000 per cent. The \nbid to cover ratio was 1.58. \nBanks’ holdings of \nBAs increased in \nQ3 of 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 11 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n2.3.6 \nBonds Market \nTranches of the 5- 7- and 10-year FGN Bonds were re-opened \nfor sale in the third quarter of 2018. The term to maturity of the \nbonds ranged from 4 years, 7 months to 9 years, 7 months. \nTotal amount offered, subscribed to and allotted were \nN270.00 billion, N356.31 billion and N203.34 billion, respectively. \nThe bid rates on all tenors ranged from 12.5000 per cent to \n16.5000 per cent, while the marginal rates were from 13.6900 \nper cent to 15.2459 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was 1.75. \nAllotment on non-competitive basis amounted to N70.4 billion. \n2.3.7 \nCBN Standing Facilities \nThe banks continued to access the CBN’s Standing Facilities \nwindow to square up their positions either by borrowing from \nthe standing lending facility (SLF) window or depositing excess \nreserves at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window of the \nCBN at the end of each business day. Total request for the \nStanding Lending Facility (SLF) inclusive of Intra-day lending \nfacilities (ILF) that was converted to overnight repo during the \nreview quarter stood at N956.64 billion, compared with \nN3,960.24 billion in the preceding quarter. Daily average \ntransaction value amounted to N19.13 billion in 50 transaction-\ndays, with total interest earned at N3.07 billion. \nTotal standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review \nperiod was N5,556.63 billion, with daily average of N91.09 \nbillion, in contrast to N5,988.06 billion, in the second quarter of \n2018. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quater amounted \nto N1.99 billion, compared with N2.15 billion in the preceding \nquarter. \n2.4 \nDeposit Money Banks’ Activities \nThe total assets and liabilities of the commercial banks stood \nat N36,267.61 billion at end-August 2018, representing 0.8 per \ncent increase over the level at end-June 2018. The funds were \nsourced, largely, from mobilisaion of unclassified and foreign \nliabilities, and realisation of claims on Central Bank. The funds \nwere used, mainly, for payment of matured demand deposits, \naccretion to reserves and extension of credit to the private \nsector. \nAt N19,306.46 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy, \nat end-August 2018 showed an increase of 1.0 per cent \nTranches of FGN Bonds \nof various maturities \nwere reopened for sale \nin the Q3 of 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 12 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nabove the level at end-June 2018. The development \nreflected, the rise in claims on both the Federal Government \nand the private sector in the review period. \nTotal specified liquid assets of the banks was N11,264.34 billion \nat end-August 2018, representing 54.5 per cent of the total \ncurrent liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio was 2.0 \npercentage points and 24.5 percentage points above the \nlevels at end-June 2018 and the stipulated minimum ratio of \n30.0 per cent, respectively. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 65.89 \nper cent, was 1.29 percentage points higher than the level at \nend-June 2018 but was 14.11 percentage points below the \nprescribed maximum of 80.0 per cent. \n2.5 \nCapital Market Developments \n2.5.1 \nSecondary Market \nDespite the impressive rally in the first half of 2018, gradual \nnormalisation of monetary policy in the advanced economies, \nparticularly in the United States, continued to be a major \nthreat to stability of the capital market. Market sentiments \nremained uncertain, leading to heightened volatility, as \ngradual outflow of portfolio investments and investors’ strong \nprofit-taking persisted. Consequently, developments on the \nNigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was bearish during the third \nquarter of 2018. Aggregate volume and value of traded \nsecurities fell by 29.5 per cent and 42.9 per cent to 16.3 billion \nshares and N205.0 billion in 216,568 deals, respectively, \ncompared with 23.1 billion shares and N359.2 billion in 277,811 \ndeals, in the second quarter of 2018. \nActivities in the Financial Services sector (measured by \nvolume) led the chart with 11.6 billion shares valued at N125.4 \nbillion and traded in 123,868 deals, compared with 16.0 billion \nshares valued at N178.9 billion and traded in 136,315 deals in \nthe second quarter of 2018. This constituted 71.3 per cent and \n61.2 per cent of the total volume and value of traded \nsecurities, compared with 69.3 per cent and 49.8 per cent, \nrespectively, in the second quarter of 2018. The banking sub-\nsector (measured by volume) was the most active in the \nreview quarter. \n \n \nLiquidity ratio was \nabove the prescribed \nminimum, while the \nLoan-to-deposit ratio \nwas below the \nprescribed maximum \nin August of 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 13 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities \n \n \n \nSource: NSE \nTable 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nVolume (Billion)\n18.5\n15.3\n20\n24.4\n20.4\n28.7\n43.8\n23\n16.3\nValue (N Billion)\n151.4 112.8\n227\n240\n360.4\n339.4 439.7\n359\n205\n \nSource: NSE \n2.5.2 \nNew Issues Market/Supplementary Listings \nThere was one (1) new and one (1) supplementary equity \nlisting in the third quarter of 2018. \nTable 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange \nS/N Company\nAdditional Shares (Units)\nReasons\nListing\n1 Notore Chemical & Industries Plc\n1,612,066,200\nOrdinary Shares\nNew Listing\n2 Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc\n64,208,713\nDividend\nSuppllementary\nSource: NSE \n \n2.5.3 \nMarket Capitalisation \nHeightened volatility, on account of the general uncertainties, \nand persistent profit-taking dampened the performance of \nquoted securities on the Nigeria Stock Exchange during the \nreview period. The aggregate market capitalisation of all \nlisted securities (Equities and Debts) fell by 6.8 per cent from \nN23.9 trillion at end-June 2018 to N22.3 trillion at end-\nSeptember, 2018. Similarly, market capitalisation of the \nequities segment fell by 13.9 per cent to N11.9 trillion and \nconstituted \n53.6 \nper \ncent \nof \nthe \naggregate \nmarket \n0\n50\n100\n150\n200\n250\n300\n350\n400\n450\n500\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\n30\n35\n40\n45\n50\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nValue (N billion) \nVolume (Billion) \nVolume of traded securities (LHS)\nValue of securities (RHS)\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 14 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \ncapitalisation, compared with N13.7 trillion and 57.8 per cent \nat end-June 2018. \n2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index \nDevelopments in the sectoral indices reflected decline in the \nperformance of quoted stocks on the Exchange in the review \nperiod. The All-Share Index fell by 14.4 per cent to close at \n32,766.37 at end-September 2018, below the level at end-\nJune 2018. Similarly, all sectoral indices fell below the levels in \nthe third quarter of 2018. Listed companies in the industrial \nsub-sector recorded the most loss, as the NSE-Industrial index \nfell significantly by 23.9 per cent to 1,528.69, followed by NSE-\nConsumer Goods, and NSE-Pension indices which declined by \n18.3 per cent and 17.7 per cent, to their respective values of \n758.36 and 1226.16 at end-September 2018. Similarly, the NSE-\nInsurance, NSE-AseM, NSE-Lotus, NSE-Banking, NSE-Premium \nand NSE-Oil and Gas, fell by 16.7 per cent, 15.9 per cent, 13.8 \nper cent, 13.6 per cent, 13.4 per cent and 10.9 per cent to \n125.27, 797.69, 2,262.98, 411.25, 2,355.35 and 287.69 at end-\nSeptember 2018, respectively. \nFigure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index \n \nSource: NSE \n \nTable 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE) \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nMarket Capitalization (N trillion)\n16.39\n16.2\n16.5\n19\n19.6\n22.9\n24.869\n23.9\n22.3\nAll-Share Index (Equities)\n28,335.40\n \n26,874.62\n \n25,516.34\n \n33,117.48\n \n35,439.98\n \n38,243.19\n \n41,504.51\n \n38,278.55\n \n32,766.37\n \n Source: NSE \n -\n 5,000.00\n 10,000.00\n 15,000.00\n 20,000.00\n 25,000.00\n 30,000.00\n 35,000.00\n 40,000.00\n 45,000.00\n0.00\n5.00\n10.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nIndex \nN billion \nMarket Capitalization (LHS)\nAll-Share Index (RHS)\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 15 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n3.0 \nFiscal Operations5 \nFederally collected revenue in the third quarter of 2018 fell \nbelow the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 24.0 \nper cent, but rose above the receipt in the preceding quarter \nby 8.9 per cent. Federal Government retained revenue for the \nreview quarter was N950.61 billion, while total estimated \nexpenditure amounted to N1,050.94 billion, resulting in an \nestimated deficit of N100.33 billion. \n \n3.1 \nFederation Account Operations \nAt N2,524.59 billion, federally-collected revenue in the third \nquarter of 2018, was lower than the proportionate quarterly \nbudget estimate of N3,321.36 billion by 24.0 per cent. It, \nhowever, rose above the receipts in the preceding quarter by \n8.9 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue \n(gross) relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate \nwas attributed to the shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue \ncomponents in the review period (Figure 6, Table 6). \nFigure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n5 All figures on government revenue and expenditure are provisional and subject to changes\\ \n0.00\n500.00\n1000.00\n1500.00\n2000.00\n2500.00\n3000.00\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nN'Billion \nOil Revenue\nNon-Oil Revenue\nGross federally -\ncollected \nrevenue fell by \n24.0 per cent \nbelow the \nproportionate \nbudget estimate. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 16 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nFederally-collected revenue (Gross) \n2,315.84\n \n2,008.87\n \n2,083.66\n \n2,318.25\n \n2,524.59\n \n Oil Revenue\n1,270.62\n \n1,226.04\n \n1,288.06\n \n1,398.06\n \n1,394.19\n \n Non-Oil Revenue\n1,045.22\n \n782.83\n \n795.60\n \n920.19\n \n1,130.39\n \nSource:Federal Ministry of Finance \n* All figures are provisional \n \nGross oil receipt, at N1,394.19 billion or 55.2 per cent of the \ntotal revenue, was below the proportionate quarterly budget \nestimate by 27.4 per cent. It also fell marginally below the \nreceipts in the second quarter of 2018 by 0.3 per cent. Despite \nthe increase in crude oil price, oil revenue declined relative to \nthe proportionate budget owing to shortfalls in crude oil \nproduction and exports, arising from leakages and shut-\nins/shut-downs at some NNPC terminals (Figure 7, Table 7). \n \nFigure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components \n \n \nTable 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nOil R evenue Gro ss\n1,270.62\n \n1,226.04\n \n1,288.06\n \n1,398.06\n \n1,394.19\n \nCrude oil/Gas Sales\n345.53\n \n236.69\n \n98.21\n \n109.32\n \n104.49\n \nPPT/Royalties\n489.41\n \n666.10\n \n926.33\n \n841.03\n \n914.56\n \nOthers\n435.69\n \n323.24\n \n263.51\n \n447.71\n \n375.14\n \nSource: Federal Ministry of Finance \n* All figures are provisional \nNon-oil revenue, at N1,130.39 billion or 44.8 per cent of total, \nwas below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of \nN1,400.74 billion by 19.3 per cent. It was, however, above the \nlevel in the preceding quarter by 22.8 per cent. The lower non-\noil revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget \n0.00\n500.00\n1000.00\n1500.00\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nN'Billion \nCrude oil/Gas Sales\nPPT/Royalties\nOthers\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 17 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nestimate was due to the shortfalls in receipt from Federal \nGovernment Independent Revenue and VAT in the review \nperiod (Figure 8, Table 8). \nFigure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components\n \n \nTable 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\n Non-Oil Revenue\n1,045.22\n \n782.83\n \n795.60\n \n920.19\n \n1,130.39\n \n Value-Added Tax (VAT)\n248.89\n \n253.46\n \n277.26\n \n264.00\n \n279.69\n \n Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes\n543.40\n \n297.56\n \n256.86\n \n315.14\n \n510.79\n \n Customs & Excise Duties\n164.15\n \n169.05\n \n158.42\n \n169.60\n \n181.06\n \n Others/1\n88.78\n \n62.76\n \n103.06\n \n171.45\n \n158.85\n \n1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies \n(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies) \nSource: Federal Ministry of finance \n* All figures are provisional \n \nAfter statutory deductions and transfers of N396.91 billion and \nN427.36 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,700.32 billion was \nretained in the Federation account. Of this amount, the \nFederal Government received N824.40 billion, while State and \nLocal governments received N418.15 billion and N 322.37 \nbillion, respectively. The balance of N135.41 billion was \ntransferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among \nthe oil prodcuing states. \nSimilarly, the Federal Government received N40.28 billion, \nwhile the State and Local governments received N134.25 \nbillion and N93.98 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool \nAccount. \n0.00\n200.00\n400.00\n600.00\n800.00\n1000.00\n1200.00\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nN'Billion \n Corporate Tax\n Customs & Excise Duties\n Value-Added Tax (VAT)\nOthers\nThe sum of N 1,700.32 \nbillion \nof \nthe \ngross \nfederally-collected \nrevenue was distributed \namong the three tiers of \ngovernment \nand \nthe \n13.0% Derivation Fund \nfor oil producing states. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 18 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (Naira Billion)* \nQ3 2017\nQ4 2017\nQ1 2018\nQ2 2018\nQ3 2018\nTotal Deductions 1/\n523.70\n \n376.63\n \n117.24\n \n287.28\n \n396.91\n \n Oil Rev enue Deductions\n474.76\n337.00\n79.30\n250.24\n352.61\n Non-Oil Rev enue Deductions\n48.94\n39.63\n37.93\n37.04\n44.30\nTotal Transfers\n327.72\n \n306.08\n \n369.52\n \n424.89\n \n427.36\n \n Federal Gov t. Ind. Rev enue\n35.76\n0.92\n20.25\n57.42\n45.86\n VAT Pool Account\n238.93\n243.32\n266.45\n253.44\n268.50\n Others 2/\n53.02\n61.84\n82.81\n114.03\n113.00\n1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions\n2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF\n \nSource: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance \n * All figures are provisional \nThe sum of N7.32 billion was also shared as non-oil excess \nrevenue from which the Federal Government received N3.86 \nbillion, while the State and Local governments received N1.96 \nbillion and N1.51billion, respectively. In addition, Exchange \nGain, amounting to N67.04 billion was shared as follows: \nFederal Government, N30.73 billion; State government, N15.58 \nbillion; and Local government, N12.01 billion. The balance of \nN8.71 billion was transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for \ndistribution among the oil-producing states. Furthermore, the \nsum of N12.00 billion was shared as additional NNPC Revenue \nfrom which Federal, State and Local governments received \nN5.50 billion, N2.79 billion, and N2.15 billion, respectively. The \nbalance of N1.56 was distributed among the oil-producing \nstates. \nThus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the \nthree tiers of government in the third quarter of 2018 \namounted \nto \nN2,055.18 \nbillion, \ncompared \nwith \nthe \nproportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,829.08 billion. \n3.2 \nThe Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of \nGovernment \n3.2.1 \nThe Federal Government \nFederal Government retained revenue for the third quarter of \n2018 was estimated at N950.61 billion. This was below the \nproportionate quarterly budget estimate by 49.7 per cent, but \nexceeded receipts in the review quarter by 6.0 per cent. Of \nthe total revenue, Federation Account accounted for 86.7 per \ncent, while Federal Government Independent Revenue, VAT, \nExchange Gain, NNPC Refund and Excess Non-oil accounted \nfor 4.8, 4.2, 3.2, 0.6 and 0.5 per cent, respectively (Figure 9). \nAt N950.61 billion, the \nestimated FGN retained \nrevenue was 49.7 per \ncent \nlower \nthan \nthe \nproportionate \nquarterly \nbudget estimate . \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 19 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue\n \n \nTable 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nRetained Revenue\n990.21\n \n1,265.75\n \n902.64\n \n896.74\n \n950.61\n \nExpenditure\n1,652.00\n \n1,956.77\n \n1,599.76\n \n988.91\n \n1,050.94\n \nCurrent Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n(307.49)\n \n(192.05)\n \n(372.30)\n \n41.16\n \n84.39\n \nPrimary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n(48.58)\n \n(272.74)\n \n86.88\n \n364.36\n \n411.97\n \nOverall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n(661.79)\n \n(691.02)\n \n(697.11)\n \n(92.17)\n \n(100.33)\n \nSource: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General \nof the Federation \n*All figures are provisional \nThe estimated Federal Government expenditure for the third \nquarter of 2018 stood at N1,050.94 billion and was below the \nproportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,376.93 billion \nby 55.8 per cent. It was, however, above the level in the \npreceding quarter by 6.3 per cent. A breakdown of the total \nexpenditure \nshowed \nthat \nthe \nrecurrent \ncomponent \naccounted for 82.4 per cent, while capital and statutory \ntransfers accounted for 12.5 and 5.1 per cent, repectively. A \nfurther breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that \nthe non-debt component accounted for 40.9 per cent, while \ndebt service payments was 59.1 per cent (Figure 10). \nFederation Acct. \n86.7% \nVAT Pool Acct. \n4.2% \nFGN Ind. Rev. \n4.8% \n Exchange Gain \n3.2% \n NNPC Refund \n0.6% \nExcess Non-Oil \n0.5% \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 20 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 10: Federal Government Expenditure \n \nThus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted \nin an estimated deficit of N100.33 billion, compared with the \nproportionate quarterly budget deficit of N488.62 billion. \n3.2.2 \nStatutory Allocations to State Governments \nAt N718.41 billion, the total allocation to state governments \nfrom the Federation Account, including the 13.0% Derivation \nFund and the VAT Pool Account was lower than the \nproportionate quarterly budget estimate by 28.9 per cent. A \nbreakdown showed that receipts from the Federation \nAccount was N584.15 billion (81.3%), while the share from VAT \npool account stood at N134.25 billion (18.7%). The receipts \nfrom both the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below \nthe proportionate budget estimate by 29.2 and 27.5 per cent, \nrespectively. \n3.2.3 \nStatutory Allocations to Local Government Councils \nTotal allocations to local governments from the Federation \nand VAT Pool Accounts in the third quarter of 2018 stood at \nN432.02 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly \nbudget estimate by 26.6 per cent. Of the total amount, \nallocation from the Federation Account was N338.04 billion \n(78.2%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N93.98 billion \n(21.8%). \n \n \n \n Recurrent \n82.4% \n Capital \n12.5% \n Transfers \n5.1% \nFiscal operations of \nthe FG resulted in an \nestimated deficit of \nN100.33 billion in Q3 \n2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 21 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n4.0 \nDomestic Economic Conditions \nAs a result of the widespread rainfall across the country, there was a \nboost in agricultural activities in the review quarter, involving harvest \nof, mainly, early maturing crops. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers \ncontinued with the breeding of poultry birds and fattening of cattle \nin anticipation of end of year sales. End-period inflation, on year-on-\nyear and 12-month moving average bases for the third quarter of \n2018 were estimated at 11.16 and 13.10 per cent, respectively. \n4.1 \nAgricultural Sector \nAgricultural activities were boosted in the third quarter of 2018, \nas a result of widespread rainfall across the country. There \nwere, however, few cases of flash flooding, which affected \nfarmlands in some parts of the country. Furthermore, \nincidences of farmers/herders clashes in some parts of \nAdamawa, Benue, and Borno States during the review period \nalso affected agricultural activities adversely. \nFarming activities in the country, during the quarter, involved \nmainly early harvest of yam, maize, rice, groundnut, potatoes \ncassava and other early maturing crops. In the livestock sub-\nsector, farmers continued with the breeding of poultry birds \nand fattening of cattle in anticipation of end of year sales. \n4.2 \nAgricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme \nA total of N1,422.4 million was guaranteed to 12,524 farmers \nunder the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in \nthe third quarter of 2018. The amount represented an increase \nof 53.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent above the levels in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017, \nrespectively. Sub-sectoral analysis showed that: food crops \nobtained the largest share (N765.6 million or 53.8 per cent), \nguaranteed to 7,338 beneficiaries; mixed crop sub-sector \n(N236.5 million or 16.6 per cent), guaranteed to 3,316 \nbeneficiaries; livestock, (N189.7 million or 13.3 per cent) \nguaranteed to 690 beneficiaries; and cash crop, N109.5 \nmillion (7.7 per cent), guaranteed to 665 beneficiaries. \nFisheries had N98.0 million (6.9 per cent) guaranteed to 403 \nbeneficiaries; and “others”, N23.2 million (1.6 per cent), \nguaranteed to 112 beneficiaries. \nAnalysis by state showed that 33 states and the Federal \nCapital Territory benefited from the Scheme with the highest \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 22 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nand lowest sums of N210.8 million (14.8 per cent) and N0.9 \nmillion (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to Adamawa and Bayelsa \nstates, respectively. \n4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS) \nAt end-September 2018, total amount released by the CBN \nunder the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) \nfrom inception to the participating banks for disbursement \nstood at N577.34 billion for 568 projects (Table 11). Of the total \nnumber of projects, 34 were in respect of state governments. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n4.4 \nIndustrial Production6 \nActivities in the industrial sector showed improvements during \nthe third quarter of 2018, on account of expansion, and \nincreased employment, output and new orders in the \nmanufacturing sub-sector. Slowdown in prices of input also \ncontributed to increased activities. Thus, industrial production \nin the review quarter indicated a marginal increase over the \nlevel in the preceding quarter. At 105.9 (2010=100), the \nestimated index of industrial production in the review quarter, \nrose by 0.6 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter. \nThe increase reflected, mainly, improved activities in the \nmanufacturing sub-sector. \n \n6 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision \nIndustrial activities \nimproved in the \nreview quarter due to \nincreased new orders \nand slowdown in \ninput prices. \n Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)\nS/N\nParticipating Banks\nAmt Disbursed (N billion)\nNumber of Projects\n1\nAccess Bank Plc\n36.66\n26\n2\nCitibank Plc\n3.00\n2\n3\nDiamond Baqnk Plc\n4.85\n21\n4\nECOBANK\n6.38\n10\n5\nFCMB Plc.\n15.53\n26\n6\nFidelity Bank Plc \n21.67\n17\n7\nFirst Bank of Nigeria Plc \n42.89\n99\n8\nGTBank Plc\n39.85\n29\n9\nHeritage Bank Plc\n6.82\n14\n10\nKeystone Bank \n26.05\n20\n11\nJaiz Bank Plc\n0.00\n1\n12\nSkye Bank Plc\n13.77\n10\n13\nStanbic IBTC Bank \n27.66\n45\n14\nSterling Bank Plc\n72.17\n42\n15\nUnion Bank Nigeria PLC\n28.91\n39\n16\nUnited Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc\n81.06\n50\n17\nUnity Bank Plc \n25.18\n27\n18\nWema Bank\n2.89\n13\n19\nZenith Bank\n120.16\n75\n20\nSuntrust Bank Ltd\n1.85\n2\nTOTAL\n577.34\n568\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 23 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nThe estimated index of manufacturing production in the third \nquarter of 2018, at 176.1 (2010=100), showed a marginal \nincrease of 0.1 per cent, compared with the level in the \npreceding quarter. The improvement was due to increased \nproduction activities on account of new orders and lower \ninput prices. Capacity utilisation in the sub-sector remained at \n54.6 per cent, same as in the preceding quarter (Figure11). \nFigure11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate \n \nSource: Staff Estimate \n \nThe estimated index of mining production in the third quarter \nof 2018, at 73.7 (2010=100), fell by 0.4 per cent, below the level \nat end-June 2018. The decline reflected the fall in crude oil \nand gas production (Figure 12, Table 12). \nElectricity generation improved during the review quarter. At \n3,358.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity generation rose \nby 3.32 per cent, compared with the level at the end of the \nsecond quarter of 2018. The increase was attributed to the \nincreased gas supply to thermal stations and higher water \nlevel at the hydro stations. \nAt 3,098.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity consumption \nrose by 1.74 per cent, above the level at end of the \npreceding quarter. The increase in electricity consumption \nwas attributed to increased electricity generation. \n45.0\n46.0\n47.0\n48.0\n49.0\n50.0\n51.0\n52.0\n53.0\n54.0\n55.0\n56.0\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nPercent \nAverage electricity \ngeneration and \nconsumption improved \nin the review quarter. \nIndustrial capacity \nutilisation stood at \n54.6 per cent in the \nreview quarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 24 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 12: Index of Industrial Production (2010=100) 7\n0\n20\n40\n60\n80\n100\n120\n140\n160\n180\n200\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nIndex\nMining\nAll Sectors\nManufacturing\n \nSource: Staff Estimate \n \nTable 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation Rate \n \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nAll Sectors (1990=100)\n119.00\n106.80\n109.70\n105.30\n105.90\n Manufacturing\n179.21\n188.22\n182.3\n175.9\n176.1\n Mining\n92.93\n69.63\n79.8\n74\n73.7\nCapacity Utilisation (%)\n54.00\n54.50\n54.80\n54.40\n54.60 \nSource: Staff Estimate \n4.5 \nPetroleum Sector \nNigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and \nnatural gas liquids, averaged 1.84 mbd or 169.28 million barrels \n(mb) during the review quarter. This represented a marginal \ndecline of 0.01 mbd or 0.5 per cent, compared with 1.85 mbd \nor 168.35 million barrels at the end of the second quarter of \n2018. The estimated decline in production was attributed, \nlargely, to the ongoing outages on the Trans-Ramos pipeline \nand the force majeure on exports of Bonny light. \nCrude oil export averaged 1.39 mbd or 128.8 mb, representing \na decline of 0.7 per cent below 1.40 mbd or 127.4 mb in the \npreceding quarter. Allocation of crude oil for domestic \nconsumption was 0.45 mbd or 40.95 million barrels during the \nperiod under review. \n \n7 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015 \nCrude oil and natural \ngas production fell in the \nthird quarter of 2018. \nCrude oil export \nfell in Q3 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 25 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nThe average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the \nBonny Light (37° API), rose to US$76.36/b in the third quarter \n2018, from US$75.43/b in the preceding quarter. This \nrepresented quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 per cent. The \nrise in oil price was attributed to the escalating geopolitical \ntensions, particularly, news on Iran production outages, \ndisruption of production in Libya and Saudi Arabia’s \nsuspension of crude oil shipments through its major shipping \nlane. The UK Brent at US$74.81/b and the Forcados at \nUS$76.41/b exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light. The WTI, \nhowever, fell to US$54.98/b from US$60.23/b in the second \nquarter of 2018. \nThe average price of OPEC basket of fifteen selected crude \nstreams was US$74.00/b in the third quarter of 2018. This \nrepresented an increase of 2.9 per cent and 48.1 per cent, \ncompared with US$71.88/b and US$49.97/b recorded in the \nsecond quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2017, \nrespectively (Figure 13, Table 13). \nFigure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices\n \nSource: Reuters \n \nTable 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nBonny Light\n47.33\n49.84\n54.17\n50.21\n52.92\n62.48\n68.55\n75.43\n76.36\nOPEC Basket\n42.86\n47.52\n51.95\n48.47\n49.97\n59.35\n64.76\n71.88\n74.00\n \nSource: Reuters \n \n0\n10\n20\n30\n40\n50\n60\n70\n80\n90\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nUS$ per barrel \nBonny Light\nOPEC Basket\nWith the exception of the \nWTI, the average prices \nof all other crude oil \nvariants rose in the \ninternational crude oil \nmarket in Q3 2018,. \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 26 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n4.6 \nConsumer Prices8 \nThe all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at end-\nSeptember 2018, was at 268.4 (November 2009=100), \nindicating a 0.8 per cent and 11.28 per cent increase over the \nlevels in the second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding \nperiod of 2017, respectively. The development was attributed \nto projected increase in both food and non-food categories. \nThe urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) was 272.0 at \nend-September 2018, representing 3.1 per cent and 11.7 per \ncent increase, compared with the levels at end-June 2018 \nand end-September 2017, respectively. The rural all-items CPI \n(November 2009=100), was 265.5 at end-September 2018, \nrepresenting 2.98 per cent and 10.92 per cent increase, \ncompared with the levels at end-June 2018 and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 14, Table \n14). \nThe composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent in \nthe CPI basket) was 289.0 at end-September 2018, compared \nwith 278.2 and 255.1, at the end of the preceding quarter and \nthe corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The projected \nprice increase was attributed to expected loss of farm \nproduce as a result of floods witnessed in some states. \nFigure 14: Consumer Price Index \n \nSource: NBS \n \n \n \n8 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the \n2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National \nBureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH October 2010. All values are staff estmates. \n155\n165\n175\n185\n195\n205\n215\n225\n235\n245\n255\n265\n275\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nIndex \nComposite\nUrban\nRural\nThe general price level \nincreased in Q3 2018 \nover the level in the \npreceding quarter. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 27 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100) \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nComposite\n208\n213.6\n222.7\n234.2\n241.2\n246.1\n252.4\n260.5\n268.4\nUrban\n209.6\n215.3\n224.7\n236.2\n243.5\n249.3\n255.6\n263.8\n272.0\nRural\n206.7\n212.2\n221.2\n232.6\n239.4\n244.1\n249.9\n257.8\n265.5\n \nHeadline inflation rose to 11.28 per cent at end-September \n2018, compared with the 11.23 per cent and 15.98 per cent at \nthe end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding \nperiod of 2017, respectively. This reflected the rise in prices of \nselected food items, fuel and lubricants for personal transport \nequipment and solid fuels, among others. \n \nThe Twelve-Month Moving Average (12MMA) inflation for \nseptember 2018 was estimated at 13.16 per cent, compared \nwith 14.37 per cent and 17.17 per cent in the preceding \nquarter and corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure \n15, Table 15). \nFigure 15: Inflation Rate \n \nSource: NBS \nTable 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%) \nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\n12-Month Moving Average\n13.50\n15.70\n17.30\n17.60\n17.20\n16.50\n15.60\n14.40\n13.16\nYear-on-Year\n17.90\n18.60\n17.26\n16.10\n15.98\n15.37\n13.34\n11.23\n11.28\nSource: NBS \n \n \n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\n12.00\n14.00\n16.00\n18.00\n20.00\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nPercent \n12-Month Average\nYear-on-Year\nThe headline inflation \n(y-o-y) was at 11.28 \nper cent in Q3 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 28 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 29 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n5.0 \nExternal Sector Developments9 \nForeign exchange inflow through the CBN in the third quarter of 2018 \nfell by 6.3 per cent, while outflow rose by 27.4 per cent, relative to \nthe levels in the second quarter of 2018. Total non-oil export \nproceeds received through banks rose by 25.5 per cent above the \nlevel at end-June 2018. The average exchange rate at the investors’ \nand exporters’ window, the BDC and the inter-bank segment of the \nforeign exchange market were N362.42/US$, N359.21/US$ and \nN306.03/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At US$42.61 billion, \nthe gross external reserves fell by 9.6 per cent, compared with the \nlevel at end-June 2018 . \n5.1 \nForeign Exchange Flows \nDespite the decline in dometsic oil production, there was \nimprovement in foreign exchange revenue from oil export in \nthe third quarter of 2018, on account of the favourable \ninternational price of crude oil. The development was, \nhowever, moderated by the significant decline in inflow from \nnon-oil exports. Consequently, aggregate foreign exchange \ninflow through the CBN amounted to US$12.95 billion, \nindicating a 6.3 per cent decline below the level at end-June \n2018. It, however, showed an increase of 8.1 per cent, over \nthe level in the corresponding period of 2017. The decline, \nrelative to the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the fall in \ninflow from non-oil sources. \nAggregate outflow through the CBN amounted to US$16.93 \nbillion in the third quarter of 2018. This represented 27.4 per \ncent and 81.3 per cent increase, above US$13.29 billion and \nUS$9.34 \nbillion \nin \nthe \npreceding \nquarter \nand \nthe \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. The increase in \noutflow relative to the preceding quarter was attributed to \n32.2 per cent and 28.0 per cent increase in public sector \npayments and interventions in the foreign exchange market. \nOverall, a net outflow of US$3.98 billion was recorded through \nthe Bank, compared with US$0.53 billion and US$2.64 billion in \nthe second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of \n2017, respectively (Figure 16, Table 16). \n \n9 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign \nexchange utilisation are provisional and subject to change \nForeign exchange inflow \nthrough the CBN fell , \nwhile outflow increased, \nresulting in a net \noutflow of US$3.98 \nbillion in Q3 of 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 30 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nSource: CBN \nTable 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million) \nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nInflow\n6,726.01\n \n6,597.73\n \n9,355.29\n \n11,984.05\n \n14,708.45\n \n14,159.09\n \n13,822.78\n \n12,949.01\n \nOutflow\n4,649.85\n \n3,646.89\n \n9,048.62\n \n9,343.06\n \n8,444.27\n \n9,652.66\n \n13,290.53\n \n16,931.36\n \nNetflow\n2,076.16\n \n2,950.84\n \n306.67\n \n2,640.99\n \n6,264.18\n \n4,506.43\n \n532.25\n \n(3,982.36)\n \n \nSource: CBN \n \nAggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy \namounted to US$26.01 billion at end-September 2018, \nindicating a decrease of 20.3 per cent and 3.7 per cent, \ncompare to the levels in the second quarter of 2018 and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development \nwas as a result of the 6.3 per cent and 30.6 per cent \ndecrease in inflow through Central Bnak of Nigeria and \nautonomous sources. Oil sector receipts, which accounted for \n14.2 per cent of the total, was US$3.69 billion, compared with \nUS$3.15 billion and US$3.17 billion in the preceding quarter \nand the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. \nNon-oil inflow, at US$9.26 billion (35.6 per cent of the total), fell \nby 13.3 per cent below the level at the end of 2018 second \nquarter, but rose by 5.1 per cent, over the level at the \ncorresponding period of 2017. Autonomous inflow, at US$13.06 \nbillion, fell by 30.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent below the levels \nat end of the preceding quarter of 2018 and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. Inflow from \nautonomous sources accounted for 50.2 per cent of the total. \n-10,000\n-5,000\n0\n5,000\n10,000\n15,000\n20,000\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nUS$ million \nInflow\nOutflow\nNetflow\nAutonomous inflow \ninto the economy fell \nby 30.6 per cent in Q3 \n2018 . \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 31 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nAggregate foreign exchange outflow from the economy, at \nUS$17.83 billion, rose by 25.6 per cent and 75.3 per cent, \nabove the levels in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development \nreflected, mainly, the rising outflow through the Bank. Thus, \nforeign exchange flows through the economy resulted in a net \ninflow of US$8.18 billion in the review quarter, compared with \nUS$18.44 billion and US$16.85 billion in the second quarter of \n2018 and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. \n5.2 \nNon-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters \nTotal non-oil export earnings received through the banks \namounted \nto \nUS$1.49 \nbillion at \nend-September \n2018, \nrepresenting an increase of 25.5 per cent and 193.5 per cent \nabove the levels in the preceding quarter and the \ncorresponding quarter in 2017, respectively. The development \nwas due, mainly, to the respective increase of 92.9 per cent \nand 211.3 per cent in earnings from minerals and foods \nproducts sub-sectors. A breakdown by sectors showed that \nproceeds were: minerals, (US$790.86 million); agricultural \nsector, (US$271.52 million); manufactured products, (US$196.02 \nmillion); industrial sector, (US$165.02 million); food products, \n(US$71.54 million); and transport (US$0.015 million). \nThe percentage shares of minerals, agricultural products, \nmanufactured products, industrial sector and food products in \nthe total non-oil export proceeds were 52.9 per cent, 18.2 per \ncent, 13.1 per cent, 11.0 per cent and 4.8 per cent, \nrespectively. \n5.3 \nSectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange \n \nAggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the third \nquarter of 2018 was estimated at US$11.16 billion, indicating a \n10.7 per cent increase above the level in the preceding \nquarter. The invisible sector accounted for the bulk (60.9%) of \ntotal foreign exchange disbursed in the review quarter, \nfollowed by the industrial sector (18.6%). Others were: \nmanufactured products, 8.0 per cent; minerals and oil, 5.6 per \ncent; food products, 5.1 per cent; transport, 1.0 per cent; and \nagricultural sector, 0.7 per cent (Figure17). \nThe invisible sector \naccounted for the \nbulk of the total \nforeign exchange \ndisbursed in Q3 2018. \nTotal non-oil export \nearnings by exporters \nrose in Q3 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 32 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange \n \nSource: CBN \n5.4 \nForeign Exchange Market Developments \nA total of US$11.88 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised \ndealers in the third quarter of 2018. This represented 24.0 per \ncent and 83.1 per cent increase above the levels in the \npreceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017, \nrespectively. The development, relative to the preceding \nquarter, was attributed to activities at the I&E window and \nincrease in foreign exchange sales to BDCs in the review \nquarter. \nOf the total, foreign exchange forwards disbursed at maturity \nwas US$3.24 billion (27.3 per cent); I&E window, US$2.84 billion \n(23.9 per cent); sales to BDCs, US$2.41 billion (20.3 per cent); \ninterbank sales, US$2.16 billion (18.2 per cent); and swaps \ntransactions, US$1.23 billion (10.3 per cent). \n \n \n \n \n \n \n1.0 \n1.9 \n7.8 \n12.0 \n6.3 \n21.7 \n49.3 \n0.9 \n1.6 \n5.2 \n10.4 \n6.7 \n18.1 \n57.1 \n0.7 \n1.0 \n5.1 \n8.0 \n5.7 \n18.6 \n60.9 \n0.0\n10.0\n20.0\n30.0\n40.0\n50.0\n60.0\n70.0\nPercent of Total \nQ3-18\nQ2-18\nQ1-18\nSupply for foreign \nexchange by \nauthorized dealers \nrose in Q3 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 33 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 18: Supply of Foreign Exchange \n0.00\n2.00\n4.00\n6.00\n8.00\n10.00\n12.00\n14.00\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nUS$ billion\nForex Sales at rDAS/Interbank\nSupply of Swaps\nSupply of Forex to BDC\nTotal Forex Supply\n \n \nSource: CBN \n \nTable 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nForex Sales at rDAS/Interbank\n0.69\n0.90\n1.58\n1.80\n2.16\nSupply of Swaps\n0.72\n0.19\n0.74\n1.04\n1.23\nSupply of Forex to BDC\n1.77\n1.19\n2.55\n1.50\n2.41\nForward\n3.31\n2.80\n6.11\n3.47\n3.24\nTotal Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)\n6.49\n5.08\n10.97\n7.89\n11.88\nSource: CBN \n \nThe CBN sustained its interventions at both the inter-bank and \nthe BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the \nreview quarter. However, the average exchange rate of the \nnaira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the inter-bank segment \ndepreciated by 0.1 per cent to N306.03/US$, relative to the \nlevel at end-June 2018. Similarly, at the Investors’ and \nExporters’ (I&E) Window, the average exchange rate, \ndepreciated by 0.4 per cent to N362.42/US$ at end-\nSeptember 2018, relative to the level at the end of the \npreceding quarter. \nAt the BDC segment, the average exchange rate was \nN359.21/US$, representing 0.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent \nappreciation relative to the levels in the preceding quarter \nand the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. \nConsequently, the premium between the average inter-bank \nand BDC rates narrowed to 17.4 percentage points in the \nreview quarter, from 18.3 percentage points at the end of the \nsecond quarter of 2018. Similarly, the spread between the \nThe average naira \nexchange rate vis-à-vis the \nUS dollar depreciated at \nthe inter-bank segment \nand I&E Window but \nappreciated at the BDC \nsegment in Q3 2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 34 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \naverage exchange rates at the Investors’ and Exporters’ \nwindow and the BDC segment narrowed further to 1.0 per \ncent, from 2.5 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter \n(Figure 19, Table 18). \nFigure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements \n \n Source: CBN \n \n Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium \nAverage Exchange Rate (N/US$)\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nInvestors and Exporters Window\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\n376.81\n362.15\n360.47\n360.38\n360.80\n362.42\n BDC\n397.24\n445.03\n472.49\n379.05\n365.56\n362.83\n362.63\n361.84\n359.21\n Interbank\n303.17\n305.21\n305.64\n305.76\n305.81\n305.96\n305.81\n305.77\n306.03\nPremium (%)\n I&E/Interbank\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\nN/A\n18.0\n18.4\n BDC/Interbank\n31.03\n31.00\n45.80\n54.60\n19.30\n19.50\n18.59\n18.30\n17.40\n \nSource: CBN \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n305.60\n305.80\n306.00\n355.00\n360.00\n365.00\n370.00\nQ3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18\nAverage I & E\nAverage BDC\nN/US$\n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 35 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 20: Exchange Rate Premium \n \nSource: CBN \n5.5 \nGross Official External Reserves \nGross external reserves was US$42.61 billion at end-September \n2018. This indicated a decrease of 9.6 per cent below the \nlevel in the second quarter of 2018. The external reserves \nposition would cover 7.3 months of import of goods and \nservices or 13.6 months of import of goods only, based on the \nestimated value of import for the third quarter of 2018. A \nbreakdown of the official external reserves by ownership \nshowed that CBN reserves stood at US$35.05 billion (82.3 per \ncent), Federal Government reserves, US$5.29 billion (12.4 per \ncent) and the Federation reserves, US$2.26 billion (5.3 per \ncent) (Figure 21, Table 19). \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n0.0\n10.0\n20.0\n30.0\n40.0\n50.0\n60.0\n70.0\n80.0\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nPer cent \nInterbank/BDC \nInterbank/BDC\nGross external \nreserves fell during \nthe third quarter of \n2018. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 36 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nFigure 21: Gross Official External Reserves \n0\n5,000\n10,000\n15,000\n20,000\n25,000\n30,000\n35,000\n40,000\n45,000\n50,000\nQ3-16\nQ4-16\nQ1-17\nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nUS$ million\n \nTable 19: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million) \nQ2-17\nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ2-18\nExternal Reserves\n30,341.0\n \n33,159.7\n \n39,353.5\n \n46,730.5\n \n47,157.9\n \n42,607.3\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 37 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n6.0 Global Economic Conditions \n6.1 Global Output \nGlobal growth in the review period was uneven among \nemerging markets and developing economies, due to rising oil \nprices, higher yields in the United States, sentiment shifts on \naccount of escalating trade tensions, and domestic political \nand policy uncertainty. The development resulted in reduced \ncapital inflow, higher financing costs, and exchange rate \npressures. Though rate of expansion appeared to have \npeaked in some major economies, countries with weaker \nfundamentals and higher political risks were the most \naffected, as growth became less synchronized. Consequently, \nthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic \nOutlook for July 2018 estimated global growth at 3.9 per cent, \nrespectively, for 2018 and 2019. \n \nIn the United States, near-term momentum strengthened in \nline with the IMF forecast, and the US dollar appreciation. \nGrowth projections were revised downwards for the euro \narea, Japan, and the United Kingdom, reflecting negative \nsurprises in early 2018. \n \nDevelopments in the emerging markets were uneven amid \nrising oil prices, higher yields in the United States, escalating \ntrade tensions, and market pressures on the currencies of \nsome economies with weaker fundamentals. Consequently, \ngrowth projections were revised downwards for Argentina, \nBrazil, and India, while the outlook for some oil exporters \nstrengthened. \nThe recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa was set to continue, \nsupported by the rise in commodity prices. Growth for the \nregion is estimated at 3.4 per cent for 2018 and projected to \nrise further to 3.8 per cent in 2019. The forecast reflected \nimproved prospects for Nigeria’s economy, estimated to grow \nat 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019, on the back \nof improved outlook for oil prices. Despite the weaker-than-\nexpected first quarter outcome in South Africa, the economy \nwas expected to recover over the remainder of 2018 and \n2019, as confidence improves and private investments \nstrenghtens, on accout of the new leadership. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 38 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n6.2 Global Inflation \nDevelopments in headline inflation were mixed in the third \nquarter of 2018. In advanced economies, inflation generally \ntrended upward due to higher energy prices, though core \ninflation remained below central banks’ targets. \nIn the Euro Area, inflation was estimated to increase to 2.1 per \ncent in September 2018, from 2.0 per cent in the second \nquarter of 2018. Similarly, inflation rose in the UK to 2.7 per cent \nat end-August 2018 from 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of \n2018, while in the US, inflation declined to 2.7 per cent at end-\nAugust 2018, from 2.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2018. \nIn emerging markets and developing economies, inflation \nrates generally moderated, on account of dissipating past \neffects of depreciating currencies, though some economies \nexperienced increase due to higher energy prices. Inflation in \nIndia eased to 3.7 per cent from 4.9 per cent in the second \nquarter of 2018. Similarly, inflation in Ghana declined from 10.0 \nper cent in the second quarter of 2018 to 9.9 per cent at end-\nAugust 2018. In Nigeria, however, inflation rose to 11.28 per \ncent due to increase in food inflation in the review quarter. \nSimilarly, inflation in Brazil picked up to 4.5 per cent in \nSeptember 2018, from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter of \n2018 and in China, it rose to 2.3 per cent at end-August 2018 \nfrom 1.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2018. \n6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices \nGlobal crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at \n99.09 mbd, representing 0.3 per cent increase above the level \nin the preceding quarter. World crude oil demand was \nestimated at an average of 99.38 mbd, indicating a 1.3 per \ncent increase above the level in the second quarter of 2018. \nThe average price of OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) of 15 \nselected crude streams was US$74.00/b in the third quarter of \n2018, and represented 2.9 per cent increase over the level in \nthe preceding quarter. The increase in oil price was attributed \nto supply disruptions around the globe, particularly, news on \nIran production outages, Saudi Arabia’s suspension of crude \noil shipments through its major shipping lane and disturbances \nto production in Libya. \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 39 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n6.4 \nInternational Financial Markets \nDevelopments in the international stock markets were \ngenerally mixed in the third quarter of 2018. In North America, \nthe Mexican Bolsa and United States S&P 500 indices rose by \n3.9 and 7.2 per cent, respectively, while the Canadian \nS&P/TSX Composite index fell by 1.3 per cent. In South \nAmerica, the Argentine Merval and Brazilian Bovespa indices \nrose by 28.5 per cent and 9.0 per cent, respectively, while the \nColombian COLCAP index fell by 4.5 per cent. \nIn Europe, the France CAC 40 increased by 3.2 per cent, while \nthe UK FTSE 100 and German DAX indices decreased by 1.7 \nper cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. Similarly, In Asia, \nJapan’s Nikkei 225 and India’s BSE Sensex indices increased by \n8.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively, while the China’s \nShanghai Stock Exchange-A index decreased by 0.9 per cent. \nIn Africa, the Ghanaian GSE ASI increased by 0.1 per cent, \nwhile the Nigerian NSE All-Share, South African JSE All-Share \nindex, Kenyan Nairobi NSE 20, and Egyptian EGX CASE 30 \nindices decreased by 14.4, 3.3, 12.5 and 10.5 per cent \nrespectively, in the rveiw period. \nIn the foreign exchange market, most of the selected \ncurrencies depreciated against the US dollar due to a \ncombination of: significant improvements in the US economic \nconditions and the reduced uncertainty around the dollar, on \naccount of normalisation of monetary policy; higher treasury \nyields; improved employment figures; and output growth. In \naddition, capital flow reversals from Emerging Markets and \nDeveloping Economies (EMDEs) continued to exert pressure \non the currencies of countries with fragile economic \nconditions. A summary of developments in the foreign \nexchange market were as follows: \n \nAfrica: The Nigerian naira, South African rand, Egyptian \npound and Ghanaian cedi all depreciated by 0.2 per \ncent, 2.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 2.4 per cent, \nrespectively. The depreciation was attributed in part to \ndeclining external reserves and sustained capital reversals \nin response to higher yields in advanced countries and \npartly to reduced output growth. The Kenyan shilling, \nhowever, appreciated by 0.2 per cent, on account of \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 40 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nincreased foreign direct investments, diaspora remittances \nand inflows from export earnings. \n \nNorth America: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso \nboth appreciated by 1.7 per cent and 6.4 per cent, \nrespectively. The improvement was attributed to the new \ntripartite trade deal among the U.S., Mexico and Canada. \nThe new deal, called the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” \n(USMCA) replaced the North American Free Trade \nAgreement (NAFTA). \n \n \nSouth America: The Brazilian real, Argentine peso and \nColombian peso depreciated by 4.3 per cent, 30.0 per \ncent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. The slide in the value \nof the currencies reflected the uncertainties around the \nArgentine economy and elections in Brazil. \n \n \nEurope: The British pound, the euro and the Russian ruble \ndepreciated by 1.4 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 4.3 per \ncent, respectively. Also, the pound fell against the US$, as \nuncertainty surrounding BREXIT negotiations continued due \nto recent comments by the British Prime Minister. The euro \ndepreciated, on account of the Italian government failing \nto arrive at a consensus on their 2019 budget and the ruble \nslipped further as additional sanctions by the US and other \ngeopolitical tensions between the US and Russia adversely \nimpacted the currency. \n \n \nAsia: The Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee \ndepreciated by 2.6 per cent, 3.6 per cent and 5.6 per \ncent, respectively. The recent currency weakness, as was \nalso observed in most Asian economies, was exacerbated \nby increased capital outflows due to rising US bond yields, \ncoupled with the escalating trade conflict between the US \nand China. \n6.5 Other International Economic Developments \nand Meetings \nOther major international economic developments and \nmeetings of importance to the domestic economy in the third \nquarter of 2018 included the International Monetary Fund \n(IMF) Mid-Year Staff Consultations with Nigeria, conducted \nfrom June 27 – July 9, 2018. The team reviewed developments \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 41 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nin the various sectors, assessed the soundness of the economy \nand offered advice on future policy directions. At the end of \nthe visit, the team noted that: \n \nThough \ninternational \nreserves \nremained \nstable, \nsupported by some convergence in existing foreign \nexchange windows, higher oil prices and short-term \nportfolio inflows, recovery remained challenging; \n \nReforms to improve the business environment including \nidentification of priority investment projects were in \nprogress; \n \nThe implementation of the Power Sector Recovery Plan \nwas advancing through a mini-grid policy and \nregulations on eligible customers and meter asset \nproviders; and \n \nIncreased oil exports would keep the current account \nin surplus and stabilise gross international reserves, \nnotwithstanding the current pace of foreign portfolio \noutflows. \nThe Afreximbank Annual Meeting (AAM), with the theme: \n“Celebrating the past: Shaping the future”, was held in Abuja, \nNigeria from July 11 – 14, 2018. The meeting discussed the \nfuture transformation of trade and economic development in \nthe \ncontinent, \nincluding \nthe \nimpact \nof \nthe \nrecently \nannounced African Continental Free Trade Agreement \n(AfCFTA). High-level strategic seminars at the meeting focused \non: \n \nHow Africa can work with development partners to \nharness innovation and technology to achieve and \naccelerate trade, as well as, produce real growth and \ndevelopmental transformation; \n \nHow Africa will leverage recovery from the recent \ncommodity price shock, to look at key options and \nstrategies to put the Continent on a sustainable \ndevelopment path, powered by industrial development \nand regional value chains; and \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 42 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \nWhat opportunities are there in the African Continental \nFree Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), considering the \npossibility of Africa offering the largest free trade market. \nIn addition, the 2018 Mid-Year Statutory Meetings of the West \nAfrican Monetary Zone (WAMZ), West African Monetary \nAgency (WAMA) and the West African Institute for Financial \nand Economic Management (WAIFEM) were held in Abuja, \nNigeria from September 6 – 14, 2018. \nFurthermore, the 41st Ordinary Meeting of the Assembly of \nGovernors of the Association of African Central Bank (AACB) \nheld on August 9, 2018, at the International congress Centre \nin Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The meeting was attended by thirty-\nfive (35) central banks and the African Union Commission \n(AUC). It also marked the accession of Bank Al-Maghreb to \nthe AACB, after Morocco was readmitted to the African \nUnion. \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 43 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n APPENDIX TABLES \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 44 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 45 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable A1: Money and Credit Aggregates \n \nAug-17\nSep-17\nDec-17\nMar-18\nJun-18\nAug-18\nN billion\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n26,821.45\n \n26,985.30\n \n25,863.30\n \n8,683.90\n \n25,568.20\n \n24,848.60\n \n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n4,824.23\n \n4,963.40\n \n3,640.93\n \n4,930.75\n \n3,286.30\n \n2,378.40\n \n Central Bank (Net)\n(194.24)\n \n(137.90)\n \n(353.56)\n \n1,643.93\n \n23,409.80\n \n(885.60)\n \n Banks\n5,018.47\n \n5,101.30\n \n3,994.49\n \n3,286.82\n \n3,262.90\n \n3,263.90\n \n Claims on Private Sector\n21,997.22\n \n22,021.90\n \n22,290.66\n \n22,363.23\n \n22,281.90\n \n22,470.20\n \n Central Bank\n5,580.61\n \n5,532.60\n \n5,870.69\n \n6,258.21\n \n6,420.40\n \n6,427.70\n \n Banks\n16,416.61\n \n16,489.30\n \n15,515.56\n \n15,129.61\n \n15,861.50\n \n16,042.50\n \n Claims on Other Private Sector\n20,684.45\n \n20,737.40\n \n20,718.30\n \n20,466.19\n \n20,489.00\n \n20,808.20\n \n Central Bank\n4,974.44\n \n4,967.10\n \n5,202.74\n \n5,336.57\n \n5,599.80\n \n5,723.90\n \n Banks\n15,710.30\n \n15,770.30\n \n15,515.56\n \n15,129.60\n \n14,889.20\n \n15,084.30\n \n Claims on State and Local Government\n1,237.22\n \n1,257.10\n \n1,544.83\n \n1,631.93\n \n1,628.80\n \n1,614.80\n \n Central Bank\n530.92\n \n538.10\n \n640.43\n \n656.53\n \n656.50\n \n656.50\n \n DMBs \n706.30\n \n719.00\n \n904.40\n \n975.40\n \n972.30\n \n958.20\n \n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\n--\n--\n'--\n'--\n'--\n Central Bank\n--\n--\n'--\n'--\n'--\n DMBs \n--\n'--\n'--\n'--\n'--\nForeign Assets (Net)\n9,732.99\n \n10,050.50\n \n15,520.76\n \n16,316.80\n \n18,337.50\n \n18,411.90\n \n Central Bank\n9,620.45\n \n9,870.20\n \n15,134.60\n \n15,918.20\n \n17,844.10\n \n17,993.80\n \n DMBs and Non Interest Banks\n112.54\n \n180.30\n \n386.10\n \n398.70\n \n493.50\n \n418.10\n \nOther Assets (Net)\n(7,060.49)\n \n(7,190.60)\n \n(10,294.80)\n \n(10,463.70)\n \n(10,091.00)\n \n(9,652.90)\n \nMoney Supply (M3)\n29,493.94\n \n29,845.20\n \n31,157.60\n \n33,147.10\n \n33,814.70\n \n33,607.60\n \nQuasi-Money 1/\n11,960.64\n \n11,889.80\n \n12,965.10\n \n13,390.40\n \n14,112.90\n \n14,411.20\n \nMoney Supply (M1)\n9,890.81\n \n10,064.30\n \n11,175.60\n \n11,034.00\n \n10,701.10\n \n10,448.20\n \n Currency Outside Banks\n1,523.24\n \n1,435.30\n \n1,782.70\n \n1,668.40\n \n1,519.90\n \n1,541.60\n \n Demand Deposits 2/\n8,367.57\n \n8,628.90\n \n9,392.90\n \n9,365.60\n \n9,181.20\n \n8,906.60\n \nMoney Supply (M2)\n21,851.45\n \n21,954.00\n \n24,140.60\n \n24,424.40\n \n24,814.00\n \n24,859.30\n \nCBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors\n7,642.49\n \n7,891.30\n \n7,016.90\n \n8,722.70\n \n9,000.70\n \n8,748.30\n \nMoney Supply (M3)\n29,493.94\n \n29,845.20\n \n31,157.60\n \n33,147.10\n \n33,814.70\n \n33,607.60\n \nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n5,486.80\n \n5,559.80\n \n6,484.30\n \n6,755.70\n \n6,360.50\n \n6,688.50\n \n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n1,868.74\n \n1,781.10\n \n2,157.20\n \n2,039.30\n \n1,900.70\n \n1,928.70\n \n Banks' Deposit with CBN\n3,618.07\n \n3,778.70\n \n4,327.10\n \n4,716.40\n \n4,459.80\n \n4,759.80\n \n \nSource: CBN \n \n \n1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses. \n2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well \n as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks. \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 46 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates) \nAug-17\nSep-17\nDec-17\nMar-18\nJun-18\nAug-18\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n-0.1\n-0.9\n-3.9\n5.25\n-6.32\n-3.38\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n0.3\n-5.47\n-26.64\n35.43\n-33.35\n-32.24\n Claims on Private Sector\n-0.1\n0.16\n1.22\n0.33\n-0.36\n1.19\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n-0.1\n-0.17\n-0.09\n-1.22\n0.11\n1.74\n Claims on State and Local Government\n3.8\n6.51\n22.89\n5.64\n-0.19\n0.73\n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\nForeign Assets (Net)\n14.0\n18.70\n54.43\n5.13\n12.38\n0.63\nOther Assets (Net)\n-3.8\n-2.64\n43.17\n-1.64\n-3.56\n0.64\nMoney Supply (M3)\n5.2\n5.39\n4.4\n6.39\n2.01\n-2.37\nQuasi-Money 1/\n1.4\n0.8\n9.0\n3.28\n5.4\n3.36\nMoney Supply (M1)\n-3.6\n1.24\n11.04\n-1.27\n-3.02\n-6.93\n Currency Outside Banks\n0.2\n-2.83\n24.2\n-6.41\n-8.9\n-2.28\n Demand Deposits 2/\n-4.2\n-0.97\n8.85\n-0.29\n-1.97\n-7.69\nTotal Money Assets (M2)\n-0.9\n-0.12\n9.96\n1.18\n1.6\n-1.23\nCBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors\n27.6\n24.49\n-11.08\n24.31\n3.19\n-5.46\nMoney Supply (M3)\n5.2\n5.39\n4.4\n6.39\n2.01\n-2.37\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n-0.3\n1.45\n16.63\n4.19\n-5.85\n-1.17\n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n-1.5\n-4.9\n21.12\n-5.47\n-6.8\n-0.1\n DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN\n0.4\n4.77\n15.51\n14.43\n-2.53\n6.73\nDomestic Credit (Net)\n-0.1\n0.48\n-3.45\n5.25\n-1.4\n-4.18\n Claims on Federal Government (Net)\n-1.1\n1.8\n-25.32\n35.43\n-9.74\n-34.68\n Claims on Private Sector\n0.1\n0.18\n1.4\n0.33\n-0.04\n0.81\n Claims on Other Private Sector\n-1.4\n-1.1\n-1.19\n-1.22\n-1.11\n0.43\n Claims on State and Local Governments\n25.0\n27.04\n56.12\n5.64\n5.44\n4.53\n Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises\nForeign Asset (Net)\n6.4\n9.85\n69.63\n5.13\n18.15\n18.63\nOther Asset (Net)\n5.9\n4.2\n-37.16\n-1.64\n1.98\n6.23\nMoney Supply (M3)\n3.48\n4.71\n9.32\n6.39\n8.53\n7.86\nQuasi-Money 1/\n-2.9\n-3.49\n5.23\n3.28\n8.85\n11.15\nMoney Supply (M1)\n-12.3\n-10.71\n-0.85\n-1.27\n-4.25\n-6.51\n Currency Outside Banks\n-16.4\n-21.15\n-2.07\n-6.41\n-14.74\n-13.53\n Demand Deposits 2/\n-11.5\n-8.7\n-0.62\n-0.29\n-2.25\n-5.18\nMoney Supply (M2)\n-7.4\n-6.94\n2.33\n1.18\n2.79\n2.98\nCBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors\n55.7\n60.71\n42.91\n24.31\n28.27\n24.67\nMoney Supply (M3)\n3.48\n4.71\n9.32\n6.39\n8.53\n7.86\nMemorandum Items:\nReserve Money (RM)\n-6.2\n-4.93\n10.88\n4.19\n-1.91\n3.15\n Currency in Circulation (CIC)\n-14.3\n-18.27\n-1.01\n-5.47\n-11.89\n-10.19\n DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN\n-1.4\n3.0\n17.94\n9.00\n3.07\n10.00\nPercentage Change Over Preceding Quarter\nPercentage Change Over Preceding December\n \n \nSource: CBN \n1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses. \n2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of \nnon-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks. \n*All figures are provisional and subject to changes \n \n \n \n \n \nC e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a \nPage 47 \nEconomic Report Third Quarter \n2018 \nTable A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion) \nQ3-17\nQ4-17\nQ1-18\nQ2-18\nQ3-18\nRetained Revenue\n990.21\n \n1,265.75\n \n902.64\n \n896.74\n \n950.61\n \n Federation Account\n716.95\n \n637.73\n \n758.47\n \n767.48\n \n824.40\n \n VAT Pool Account\n35.84\n \n36.50\n \n38.89\n \n38.02\n \n40.28\n \n FGN Independent Revenue\n35.76\n \n0.92\n \n20.25\n \n57.42\n \n45.86\n \n Excess Crude\n0.00\n24.24\n \n14.10\n \n-\n \n-\n \n Others\n201.65\n \n566.36\n \n70.93\n \n33.82\n \n40.08\n \nExpenditure\n1,652.00\n \n1,956.77\n \n1,599.76\n \n988.91\n \n1,050.94\n \n Recurrent\n1,297.70\n \n1,457.80\n \n1,274.94\n \n855.57\n \n866.22\n \n Capital\n236.90\n \n384.92\n \n262.77\n \n79.96\n \n131.62\n \n Transfers\n117.39\n \n114.06\n \n62.04\n \n53.37\n \n53.11\n \nOverall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)\n(661.79)\n \n(691.02)\n \n(697.11)\n \n(92.17)\n \n(100.33)\n \n \n \n*All figures are provisional and subject to changes", "source": "CBN", "stratum": "cb_requests", "fetch_date": "2026-05-11", "url": "file:///CBN/Quarterly_Economic_Reports/CBN ECONOMIC REPORT THIRD QUARTER   2018 published.pdf"}