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SIMATIC Panel PCRugged and powerful industrial PCswith bright displays
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SIMATIC Panel PCRugged and powerful industrial PCs with bright displays
You wish to operate and monitor your plant with the same equipment with which you also solve other automation tasks? Do you need hardware that is industrial and rug-ged? You attach importance to flexibility, meaning that it must be possible to expand the hardware and software of your automation solution at any time? And concerning dis-play quality, you certainly want the best?
SIMATIC Panel PCs exhibit their great strengths at machine-level HMI, but are also open for further tasks as powerful industrial PCs: open-loop control, closed-loop control, data processing and motion control are just a few examples.
Ruggedness and increased industrial capability part of the package
Already the product design complies with the high demands placed on industrial capability. The SIMATIC Panel PCs are cha-racterized by the following special features:
High-quality modules and components with high MTBF, which also permit 24-hour use in an expanded temperature range;
High vibration/shock resistance as a result of special hard disk suspension, locked connectors and card retainers;
Rugged housing design with high electromagnetic compa-tibility (EMC) and integral industrial power supplies (ac-cording to NAMUR);
High degrees of protection up to IP 65/NEMA 4
Easy-to-service equipment for rapid replacement of defective components;
A restore CD is included, which can quickly restore thesystem to factory settings.
Thanks to their rugged design, SIMATIC Panel PCs are ideally suited for production processes in harsh industrial environ-ments. Operation via the touchscreen or membrane keyboard meets all requirements. The rugged front panels are equipped with bright displays in different sizes up to 19". Various Panel PC performance classes have the same mounting cutout so that you can respond flexibly at any time to changing require-ments.
SIMATIC Panel PCs apply state-of-the-art PC technology. At the same time, the own development and production of the motherboards guarantees long-term availability. Spare parts last distinctly longer than conventional PCs.
Options for the individual configuration
The availability can be increased even further using a range of hardware and software options which can be exactly matched to the respective requirement. Thus, potential failures, for example, can be prevented with mirror disks or downtimes be minimized using a second hard disk. Errors are detected and localized quickly using diagnostics software. All Panel PCs can be optionally connected to PROFINET.
Panel PC 477 Panel PC 577 Panel PC 677 Panel PC 877
Very compact, rugged and maintenance-free
Industrial functionality at an affordable price
Maximum performance compact and with excellent communication skills
Maximum performance highly flexible
Available operating systems WinXP embedded WinXP, Win2000 WinXP, Win2000 WinXP, Win2000
Available storage media Compact Flash 512 MB, 1 GB
HDD min. 40 GB HDD min. 40 GB HDD min. 40 GB
Networking options (onboard) 2 x Ethernet (10/100 Mbit/s); 1 x MPI/PROFIBUS
1 x Ethernet (10/100/1000 Mbit/s)
2 x Ethernet (10/100 Mbit/s); 1 x MPI/PROFIBUS
1 x Ethernet (10/100 Mbit/s); 1 x MPI/PROFIBUS
Expandability with cards 3 x PC104plus 3 PCI 2 PCI 5 PCI (2 of which are PCI/ISA)
Ordering availability 3 4 years 2 years 3 4 years 3 4 years
Spare parts availability 5 years 3 years 5 years 5 years
Shock/vibration 5 g / 1 g 1 g / 0.25 g 5 g / 1 g 5 g / 1 g
Options to increase system availability
Second hard disk Yes Yes
Mirror disk technology (RAID1) Yes Yes
DiagMonitor Yes Yes Yes
Partition & Image Creator Yes Yes Yes Yes
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SIMATIC Panel PC 477. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Compact, rugged and maintenance-free
SIMATIC Panel PC 577. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Industrial functionality at an affordable price
SIMATIC Panel PC 677 and PC 877Maximum performance for harsh industrial applications
SIMATIC Panel PC 677. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Compact and with excellent communication skills
SIMATIC Panel PC 877. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5The highly flexible version
Options for the individually expandable system availability
Uninterruptible power supply (UPS) . . . . . . . . . . . 6RAID1 configuration (mirror disks)SIMATIC PC DiagMonitorSecond hard disk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7SIMATIC PC/PG Image CreatorSIMATIC PC/PG Image & Partition CreatorSIMATIC PC BIOS Manager
Options for operator control and monitoring
SIMATIC WinCC flexible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
SIMATIC WinCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Options for open-loop and closed-loop control
SIMATIC WinAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Flat Panel Monitors
Bright LCD monitors for industrial use . . . . . . . . 11
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SIMATIC Panel PC 477 and PC 577
SIMATIC Panel PC 477Compact, rugged and maintenance-free
Panel PCs must provide the design engineer with a maximum of freedom for the machine layout, and provide the planning engineer with possibilities for increasing productivity. During process operation, protection against unauthorized access and freedom from maintenance are particularly required in addi-tion to ruggedness.
The SIMATIC Panel PC 477 satisfies these requirements parti-cularly well: with a mounting depth of only 75 mm and display sizes of 12" and 15", the operator panel of the machine can be exactly matched to the requirements of the respective solu-tion.
The Windows XP embedded operating system offers the open-ness of a PC, but simultaneously guarantees the security of an embedded system. Resistant to vibration and shock since no hard disk and fan required. The Panel PC 477 is therefore ser-vice-friendly and maintenance-free. Increased protection against viruses and unauthorized modifications to programs increases the data consistency.
Two onboard Ethernet interfaces and one PROFIBUS interface (optional) are available for communication. The Panel PC 477 can be expanded using 3 PC 104 plus cards and the 3 USB ports, one of which is at the front.
SIMATIC Panel PC 577Industrial functionality at an attractive price
Affordably priced and with fully-developed functionality, the SIMATIC Panel PC 577 is an ideal entry-level device for the In-dustrial Panel PC class. External devices, such as external hard disks for data backup, can be connected via five high-speed USB ports (one of which is on the front panel). The Gigabit Ethernet interface enables the fast transfer of large data quan-tities.
The compact design of the SIMATIC Panel PC 577, which in-cludes 3 PCI slots, permits the installation even under crowded conditions in the control cabinet or control panel. A high de-gree of electromagnetic capability makes the PC 577 series ideal for use in the vicinity of machines.
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SIMATIC Panel PC 677 and PC 877Maximum performance for harsh industrial applications
These new SIMATIC Panel PCs boast open PC platforms for harsh industrial applications. Equipped with powerful pro-cessors, the systems are suitable for complex visualization tasks and the processing of large quantities of data.
The SIMATIC Panel PC 677 and the Panel PC 877 are available in many styles with attractive faceplate designs. They are ope-rated via touchscreen or pushbuttons.
Increased system availability and data security can be achieved using the optional RAID 1 mirror disk system. The vibration-absorbing and shock-absorbing suspension of the hard disk module also contributes toward further increasing the system ruggedness.
Panel PC 677 compact and with excellent communication skills
The Panel PC 677 is based on the latest 2nd generation IntelPentium Mobile technology.
With 2 available PCI slots, it fea-tures a particularly shallow mounting depth. Two Ethernet connections and the integrated PROFIBUS/MPI interface pro-vide versatile communication options. What's more, 5 high-speed USB ports (one of which is on the front panel) to, for ex-ample, connect external mass storage devices, as well as a se-rial port are available.
Panel PC 877 the highly flexible version
The Panel PC 877 has 5 avail-able slots. In addition to the onboard in-terfaces (Ethernet, USB2.0 and PROFIBUS/MPI), ISA slots, paral-lel ports, serial ports and PS/2 ports establish the compatibili-ty to existing legacy hardware.
The design of a remote-mount computer configuration using the SIMATIC Panel PCs 677/877 has again been considerably simplified compared to the previous model, and also become significantly cheaper.
The SIMATIC Panel PC Remote Kit makes it possible even sub-sequently to install the operator panel and computing unit in separate locations: Simply disconnect the operator panel from the computing unit, attach the remote kit to the operator panel an


text: Do you ever wonder what the world would be like if everybody was exactly like yourself?I don’t mean a bunch of clone you’s running around who all look exactly the same and probably have some similar personality traits, but beyond that are fairly different. I mean if everybody was exactly like you in every way. They felt the same way about every issue, believed in the same things, shared the same values, liked the same music, listened to the same podcasts, etc. Setting aside the fact that this is a totally unrealistic scenario, ask yourself the question of what that world would be like. Would all the you’s be happy, sad, bored silly, at war with each other, living in a blissful utopia? What would everyone do for a job? If you all like the exact same things presumably you would all be attracted to the same profession, and want to do the same work. If that were the case though who would teach all the you’s since nobody would want to be teacher (or maybe you all would). I could go on and on with questions like these, and it is an interesting question to ponder. I have considered it a lot myself and I don’t know is the answer I consistently come up with. You got a better one?

domain: psychology


text: Soil amendments with varying carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratios [grass clippings, wheat (Triticum aestivum), straw, sawdust] were pre-plant incorporated into 12 × 15-ft field plots at ≈4 tons/acre in fall and then planted to perennial strawberry (Fragaria ×ananassa) the following spring and grown 4 years. These amendments were intended to alter soil biological activity as measured by a suite of soil tests referred to as “soil health indicators” which, in turn, were hypothesized to affect strawberry plant growth and yield. In addition, plots were either tilled deeply or shallowly to determine if intensity of tillage affected soil health indicators. After the first and second years, amendments were reapplied between rows and soil and plant variables continued to be monitored. Soil respiration was consistently higher in plots with higher C:N amendments, with up to a 189% increase in respiration in sawdust-amended plots over unamended plots. The respiration rate was highest in sawdust-amended shallow-tilled plots; however, in most cases, tillage depth had no effect on other soil or plant variables. Potentially mineralizable N was higher in sawdust-amended plots in May both years, but not throughout the rest of the season. Soil moisture and pH were 21% and 2% higher, respectively, between the rows of strawberries than within the rows by September of the planting year, and remained that way throughout the next year. Neither the C:N ratio of the soil nor the foliar nutrient concentration of strawberry leaves was affected by the C:N ratio of the amendments. Most significantly, plant density and yield were depressed up to 42% and 26%, respectively, by planting into straw-amended soil, but planting into other amendments did not have this effect. After the second fruiting year (the third growing season), only straw was incorporated into half of the plots after harvest to mimic winter straw mulch incorporation, and yield was measured again the following spring. However, incorporation of straw between rows after plants were established did not affect yield. This study corroborates the general recommendation to avoid new strawberry plantings in locations that were recently planted to strawberry, as old fields likely harbor pathogens and contain undecomposed straw residue from previous years’ mulching that could depress yield. Despite differences in soil health indicators between amendment and tillage treatments, yield differences were not correlated with them. These observations suggest that alternative soil health indicators may be better suited for perennial strawberry.

domain: agronomy


Market mechanisms control the sorting of waste – and an urban plan by Rem Koolhaas
The City has introduced an ambitious recycling program, where around 70% of all waste is recycled. It makes use of market mechanisms to encourage citizens to change their behaviour. Rising water levels are also a challenge in this part of Belgium, so you can also learn about the City's flood protection strategies along a 7 km-long riverbank.
Other highlights from the program:
· Visit to an urban laboratory for sustainable development
· Meetings and presentations from experts from the City of Antwerp.
· Mobility along the waterfront: cyclists, pedestrians and heavy goods traffic
· Urban development in Nieuw Zuid based on plans by Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas.
Number of days: 2-3 days
Contact us if you are interested in seeing a program and getting an offer.


This past summer, I built a solar fruit drier to preserve fruit that my housemates and I gathered from neighbors’ yards. The solar drier helps close the circle on my personal campaign to step off the fossil fuel powered food system by re-learning how people used to get their food before the industrial age. I’ve learned that growing or gathering my own food for free — even in an urban environment — is not only possible, it is deeply enjoyable and very educational. When you connect with your own food, you learn about alternative ways to measure time — guided by the sun and the seasons, not clocks and human make-believe. You learn to talk to your neighbors and find ways to cooperate with them, rather than just trying to stay out of each other’s way. You learn about distributing food outside the capitalist market system. And you learn a lot of very tangible do-it-yourself skills. This article provides simple plans for building your own solar fruit drier, and describes why you might want to.
The way we currently live and eat — in a very complex, high-tech, corporate food production and distribution systems totally dependent on fossil fuels — is killing the earth with global warming, soil depletion, ocean dead-zones and poisons. These systems subjugate people to the needs of the market and concentrate power in a few hands while removing most of us from any understanding of how things work. We lack a real voice in deciding how the economy is operated.
How is it that “low-tech” people 100 years ago could grow their own food and live in balance with the earth, but modern people with all our development and learning can’t seem to do the simplest human things — like eating — without damaging our only home’s life support systems?
How is it that with such a high “standard of living” due to all of this industrialization, people are so sad, so lost, so confused, so addicted, so unhealthy? The high-tech modern world hasn’t brought us happiness or meaningful engaged lives equal to the resources it consumes, the cultures it destroys, and the people it dominates. Could it be that most people’s actual level of satisfaction, humanity and engagement was higher before we had all these fancy industrial toys?
I don’t know but I can say that I’ve found a measure of connectedness, meaning, beauty, and calm as I’ve re-joined life’s web as an active participant — rather than merely as a consumer — by growing, gathering, processing, distributing and enjoying home-grown food. This is slow food on the cheap — do-it-yourself slowness, not just another food fad offering expensive products for you to buy after a long day at work.
So back to the solar fruit drier. The main type of food I’ve been able to gather in the Bay Area is fruit. As described in previous Slingshot articles, if you look around your neighborhood, you start to notice lots of fruit trees that aren’t getting harvested — the fruit is just falling on the ground. If you knock on the door, your neighbors are often happy to let you harvest their tree, and you’re building community in the process.
But what you learn as soon as you start gathering fruit is that the biggest problem is having way too much all at once. What to do? Going beyond capitalist ideas of ownership is a good first step — figure out how you can give away the fruit you just gathered. Get on your bike and ride around to friends, infoshops, farmers markets — I like to give free food out at Critical Mass Bike rides. At the end of the day, you’ll still have more than you need, and that is where preserving food comes in.
Drying food is the oldest method of preserving food because it is the easiest. In some climates, you can simply cut up fruit you harvest, spread it out in the sun, and it will dry. But this has a few problems which is why I built a low-tech (but still nifty) indirect/pass-through fruit drier. If you dry fruit right out in the sun, the sun’s rays bleach out some of the vitamins and nutrients in the food. You may have problems with bugs or other critters. If it rains, you’re in trouble. Before this summer, my housemates and I used an electric powered fruit drier that worked well, but I didn’t like the connection with a huge fossil/nuclear powered electricity grid.
I got the basic design for my drier from two excellent articles written by Dennis Scanlin published in Home Power Magazine (#57 and 69) and I made some modifications described here. I built the solar drier to sit on part of the (south facing) front steps of my house. It is built in two parts that unhook for winter storage; the solar collector and the drying box where you put the fruit. (See diagram.)
The idea is that the sun shines on the solar collector (an insulated box with plexiglas on top) and heats piece of black metal window screen inside. The screen gets very hot. Cool air flows into an opening at the bottom of the collector and as it circulates up through the hot window screen, it gets hot. The hot air rises and pulls more cool air into the bottom of the collector creating a steady flow of air upward through the system.
At the top of the collector box, the hot air enters the drying box. It is just an insulated box with a door at the back. You build wood frames and stretch fiberglass window screen over them on which you lay sliced fruit. At the top of the box, there are adjustable vents allowing hot air to escape. If you close the vents, the box will get hotter and if you open them more, the box will get cooler. During the day, hot air moves from the bottom of the box to the top vents, drying the fruit inside.
On an average day, temperatures in the box are 140 – 150 degrees, which is great for drying fruit. If the temperature gets hotter than 150 degrees, it can deplete vitamins from the fruit, so you have to open the vents on top more.
I made the drier mostly from scrap lumber and a $5 scrap of plexiglas from a local recycled building material center (Urban Ore.) I had to spend about $30 on the two types of window screen and a piece of rigid foam insulation that I moved from the lumberyard to my house via bike trailer. The best black metal window screen is from New York Wire. I used old bike inner tubes cut in half to seal around the door on the drier box and between the solar collector box and the piece of plexiglas. The Scanlin article suggested using a special type of solar collector glass but I think anything clear (and cheap) will work just fine. The only error I made building the whole thing was using some duct tape to hold the rigid insulation together inside the drying box. Oops — the drier gets way too hot for duct tape!
The best part of this project is figuring out how to use it. When my housemates and I used the electric fruit drier, you could put the fruit in to dry anytime you wanted. You just flipped a switch and it worked — the fossil fuel use, capitalist labor, eco-destroying technology and centralized economic power all neatly hidden. This, by the way, is the real problem with modern technology — it hides what is really going on and makes things that are actually really, really complex and ecologically troublesome look “easy” and quick to the end user. There is nothing easy for the environment or human workers about using electricity or other forms of technology that tie your daily life to the death-machine.
But I digress. To use a solar fruit drier, you have to fit your schedule around the sun. This is a surprisingly difficult psychological shift. Modern people hate having to adjust their schedule to the earth or the sun. We have been socialized to want instant gratification and to be insulated from how things are. Using a solar drier means you have to wake up a half hour early and cut fruit to put in the drier before work, rather than doing it at night, because the fruit will get all brown and mushy if you cut it and leave it overnight waiting for the next day’s sun.
In the cool and o
ften foggy bay area climate, I’ve found that it usually takes a day and a half to dry fruit and that it dries unevenly. After the first day, I go through the fruit and pick out whatever has dried (usually smaller pieces.) The more uniformly you can slice the fruit, the better. Cutting up fruit to dry it meshes well with using home grown organic fruit since there are always a lot of pieces of fruit with worms or other defects that need to be cut up to be used. I usually grade the fruit when I harvest it — “eating” fruit with no defects goes in the fruit bowl and wormy fruit gets dried.
This year I harvested, moved by bike, and solar dried apples, pears, peaches, apricots, tomatoes, plums and pluots (a cross between plums and apricots).
It isn’t often in the modern world that you get to eat a truly fossil fuel free food product. By fossil fuel free food, I mean food that is grown, harvested, transported, processed, and distributed without burning fossil fuels. For me, that also means food that isn’t bought or sold because the market economy is so soaked in oil. Once capitalism gets a hold of an alternative good or service like organic food, for instance, the real spirit is lost and producers just aim to meet the minimum standard of some legal definition. It is so ironic to think of people buying organic tv dinners at Whole Foods, the world’s biggest and most centralized health food corporation, or buying organic milk shipped from a feedlot in Colorado. Organic?
We need to go beyond the organic label or even farmers’ markets by re-connecting with the food we eat. I recently heard that a study found that the fossil fuel consumed per unit of food by farmers markets was actually more than industrial food because of economies of scale, i.e. lots of pickup trucks going short distances vs. a big semi moving more food longer distances, but for less fuel per unit. I don’t know if this is true — I volunteer at an organic farm that sells at the Berkeley farmers’ market and I’m convinced that the food they raise is better on many levels (psychic, land use, ecological) than Safeway.
To get out of the ecological collapse human society is currently creating, we have to re-think everything. That means re-claiming ancient ways of preserving our food with the sun, not fossil fuels. And it means recognizing that food is what connects us to the earth and to other species, — it isn’t just another business. We are animals on an abundant earth and we are part of the food chain. Gathering, hunting and growing food is an essential human — and an essentially humanizing — act.


text:
NIOSHTIC-2 Publications Search
Lung cancer mortality among workers at a nuclear materials fabrication plant.
Am J Ind Med 2006 Feb; 49(2):102-111
Background: The Oak Ridge, Tennessee Y-12 plant has operated as a nuclear materials fabrication plant since the 1940s. Given the work environment, and prior findings that lung cancer mortality was elevated among white male Y-12 workers relative to US white males, we investigated whether lung cancer mortality was associated with occupational radiation exposures. Methods: A cohort of 3,864 workers hired between 1947 and 1974 who had been monitored for internal radiation exposure was identified. Vital status was ascertained through 1990. Results: Over the study period 111 lung cancer deaths were observed. Cumulative external radiation dose under a 5-year lag assumption was positively associated with lung cancer mortality (0.54% increase in lung cancer mortality per 10 mSv, se = 0.16, likelihood ratio test (LRT) = 5.84, 1 degree of freedom [df]); cumulative internal radiation dose exhibited a highly-imprecise negative association with lung cancer mortality. Discussion: The positive association between external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality was primarily due to exposure occurring in the period 5-14 years after exposure (0.97% increase in lung cancer mortality rate per 10 mSv, se = 0.28, LRT = 6.35, 1 df). The association between external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality was negative for exposures occurring at ages <35 years and positive for exposures occurring at ages 35-50 and 50+ years. Conclusions: There is evidence of a positive association between cumulative external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality in this population. However, a causal interpretation of this association is constrained by the uncertainties in external and internal radiation dose estimates, the lack of information about exposures to other lung carcinogens, and the limited statistical power of the study.
Ionizing-radiation; Lung-cancer; Respiratory-system-disorders; Pulmonary-cancer; Pulmonary-system-disorders; Nuclear-radiation; Radiation; Radiation-exposure; Epidemiology; Statistical-analysis; Mortality-data; Mortality-rates; Mortality-surveys
David B. Richardson, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7435
Issue of Publication
American Journal of Industrial Medicine
University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
Page last reviewed: September 2, 2020
Content source: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Education and Information Division

domain: literature


text:
Read the latest news from Evergreen.
Learn which living options currently have available accommodations.
Outstanding therapy in our state-of-the-art facilities.
Not sure what activities Evergreen offers? Watch this video to learn what current residents like to do here.
Give online with our secure online donation form.
Grant received from Helen Bader Foundation for Evergreen At Home
January 22, 2013
The staff are all very knowledgeable and professional. When I was given outpatient services, the program was adjusted to strengthen muscles for activities of daily living (carrying groceries, etc.) while maintaining balance. I would recommend this rehab to anyone.
– Pat Larsen, outpatient and previous resident of the Post Surgical and Rehab Center at Manor View
March 16, 2012
Every therapist I had contact with was so nice. Every experience was wonderful and the encouragement through the hard times was priceless. Thanks everyone!
- Linda Graf, Evergreen Therpay Services outpatient

domain: medical


Responding to Sharad Pawar’s appeal for the Andheri (E) bypoll to be held unopposed, Shiv Sena party president Uddhav Thackeray said the NCP chief had shown the “real culture of politics in Maharashtra” and his party would always be grateful to him.
MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s request to the BJP to withdraw its candidate is a significant development considering the fact that the bypoll is a testing ground before the BMC election for both the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), which is backed by Congress and NCP, and BJP supported by the Eknath Shinde-led Balasahebanchi Shi v Sena.
According to political analysts, MNS’s absence in the bypoll may help Uddhav’s candidate as Raj’s party mainly targets the same segment of voters as Shiv Sena by raising the son s-of-the-soil issue.
The bypoll has been necessitated due to sitting Sena MLA Ramesh Latke’s death in May. While Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) has fielded the late MLA’s widow Rutuja, BJP has nomi nated Patel.
Maharashtra BJP chief said party won’t contest Andheri East Assembly bypoll; to withdraw nomination of Murji Patel.


text:
2023 - Research.com Environmental Sciences in Norway Leader Award
2022 - Research.com Environmental Sciences in Norway Leader Award
Atmospheric sciences, Climatology, Troposphere, Meteorology and Aerosol are his primary areas of study. His Atmospheric sciences research incorporates themes from Volcano, Air mass, Plume, Altitude and Ozone. His Climatology study incorporates themes from Arctic, Precipitation and Water vapor.
His Troposphere research integrates issues from Planetary boundary layer, Haze, Stratosphere and Seasonality. Andreas Stohl has researched Meteorology in several fields, including Particle and Greenhouse gas. The Aerosol study which covers Taiga that intersects with Pan arctic.
His primary areas of study are Atmospheric sciences, Climatology, Meteorology, Troposphere and Aerosol. The various areas that Andreas Stohl examines in his Atmospheric sciences study include Atmosphere, Plume, Ozone and Arctic. Andreas Stohl combines subjects such as Precipitation, Water vapor and Latitude with his study of Climatology.
His research integrates issues of Atmospheric dispersion modeling and Volcano, Volcanic ash in his study of Meteorology. His Troposphere research is multidisciplinary, incorporating elements of Planetary boundary layer, Air mass, Stratosphere and Altitude. His Aerosol study integrates concerns from other disciplines, such as Particle, Air quality index, Environmental chemistry, Lidar and Sulfate.
His primary scientific interests are in Atmospheric sciences, Arctic, Snow, Turbulence and Computational physics. He focuses mostly in the field of Atmospheric sciences, narrowing it down to matters related to Radiative transfer and, in some cases, Polar night. His Arctic study also includes fields such as
His Snow research includes themes of Physical geography and Deposition. The concepts of his Computational physics study are interwoven with issues in TRACER, Particle, Dispersion and Temporal resolution. His Aerosol study combines topics in areas such as Sampling and Mineralogy.
His scientific interests lie mostly in Atmospheric sciences, Arctic, Climatology, The arctic and Climate change. In his research, Mineral dust, Radiative transfer, Permafrost and Albedo is intimately related to Radiative forcing, which falls under the overarching field of Atmospheric sciences. His Arctic research is multidisciplinary, relying on both Cryosphere, Global warming, Physical geography, Environmental chemistry and Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid.
His Climatology research integrates issues from Extreme events, Supercooling, Climate model and Precipitation. Andreas Stohl focuses mostly in the field of The arctic, narrowing it down to topics relating to Biomass burning and, in certain cases, Fossil fuel combustion, Isotope, Arctic climate and Oceanography. His biological study spans a wide range of topics, including Fossil fuel, Emission inventory, Atmospheric methane and Latitude.
This overview was generated by a machine learning system which analysed the scientist’s body of work. If you have any feedback, you can contact us here.
Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2
A. Stohl;C. Forster;A. Frank;P. Seibert.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2005)
Computation, accuracy and applications of trajectories—A review and bibliography
Atmospheric Environment (1998)
Validation of the lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large-scale tracer experiment data
A. Stohl;M. Hittenberger;G. Wotawa.
Atmospheric Environment (1998)
Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality
P.S. Monks;Claire Granier;Claire Granier;Claire Granier;S. Fuzzi;A. Stohl.
Atmospheric Environment (2009)
Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition
Andreas Stohl;P. Seibert;G Wotawa;D. Arnold;D. Arnold.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2012)
Cesium-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils due to the Fukushima nuclear accident
Teppei J. Yasunari;Andreas Stohl;Ryugo S. Hayano;John Faulkner Burkhart.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2011)
Characteristics of atmospheric transport into the Arctic troposphere
Journal of Geophysical Research (2006)
Interpolation Errors in Wind Fields as a Function of Spatial and Temporal Resolution and Their Impact on Different Types of Kinematic Trajectories
Andreas Stohl;Gerhard Wotawa;Petra Seibert;Helga Kromp-Kolb.
Journal of Applied Meteorology (1995)
Stratosphere-troposphere exchange: A review, and what we have learned from STACCATO
A. Stohl;P. Bonasoni;P. Cristofanelli;W. Collins.
Journal of Geophysical Research (2003)
Arctic smoke – record high air pollution levels in the European Arctic due to agricultural fires in Eastern Europe in spring 2006
A. Stohl;T. Berg;T. Berg;J. F. Burkhart;J. F. Burkhart;A. M. Fjǽraa.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2007)
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domain: geography


Adam had a post regarding the Boston neighborhood markers (http://www.universalhub.com/2012/what-happened-mar...) and I had mentioned about the old street signs that still exist in Boston, such as the one on the corner of Temple and Baker Street that still exists.
Over the past few months, however, I have been using Google Maps and Bing Maps to find pictures of the signs that still exist. They are divided into sections; simply click a point on the map, and select Street View to see the image.
60s black-on-white: http://goo.gl/maps/vgMS
70s Senior/Junior: http://goo.gl/maps/2HpU1
70s Penny/Farthing: http://goo.gl/maps/qaJ2
One of these days, I will try to get clearer pictures than what Google has, especially the ones that were taken in 2007 that look grainy.
Feel free to take a look and comment (nicely, of course). Thanks!


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Featured Brand Sites
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Some alternatives to milk are. Adding sour cream or heavy cream, light cream, or buttermilk. They all give it a little different taste.

domain: food


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Our 18kt white gold reversible Hand of Buddha detachable charm can be worn palm up or down just by flipping detachable hinge diamond bale over. In the center of the palm side is an evil eye with either a ruby or diamond set in its center. Flip it over to read the engraved blackened words on each respective finger which express the meaning of each posture: Meditation, Effort, Patience, Morality, Generosity. Featured with ~.09cttw round diamond brilliants and ~.01cttw diamond-cut ruby. Available in 18kt green gold, 18kt white gold, and 20kt rose gold. Our detachable hinged bale charms can be maneuvered onto any of our hand-made bracelets, necklaces, pearl, and faceted bead strands, or onto your own. Necklaces, bracelets and additional charms sold separately. For necklace and bracelet options please feel free to contact us.
Available as bespoke
Work one-on-one with award-winning designer Glenn Bradford, who has been reimagining his clients’ diamonds, gemstones and high content gold for over 30 years.Learn More

domain: design


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a-connect had spent a lot of time and energy working to renew their value proposition and brand personality to better reflect their business and help them achieve ambitious goals for global growth. In order to realise their new brand positioning the marketing team reached out to Overthrow Digital to reinvigorate the branding and the digital side of the business, from a new website to content planning and ongoing digital marketing.
The key goal was to make those who interact with the brand understand the a-connect Effect; The unique offering that a-connect present by mixing the needs of astute business managers with highly intelligent business professionals.
We completely redesigned and brought up to date the a-connect logo and associated brand materials, from business cards to social media channel assets. The branding was supported by a detailed set of brand and communication guidelines for the internal team, ensuring a consistent brand experience for all those who come in contact with a-connect.
To support the brand launch Overthrow also created a short corporate film, from planning of the concept and writing the script to recording the voice over artist and mastering the final film. The video communicated the new ethos for the company in a motivational, aspirational way utilising a medley of stylish stock footage, combined with key messaging and an engaging soundtrack - the sole purpose of the video was to imbue those who viewed it with a sense of what the new a-connect vision is and how this will be carried forward.
A key part of the project was the redesign of the a-connect website. This not only tells the story and underlines a-connect’s new position as a thoughtful, imaginative and enterprising human resource company. It also acts as a hub of information for industry users looking to find articles, resources and knowledge relevant to their sectors, and ties in with the ongoing content marketing, social media and SEO activities that Overthrow Digital planned for a-connect. We worked with the a-connect team to identify their target audiences, focus the key messaging and created a framework for their internal team to plan and create the right mix of content for the marketing campaign.
a-connect’s new launch has been a great success, with fantastic support and renewed interest from its global network of Independent Professionals and clients. The website has increased engagement with the brand online, demonstrated by the new increase in web traffic, online enquiries and social media following.
a-connect have joined the group of very happy clients served by Overthrow Digital, and are continuing to work with us on a monthly basis as we provide them support with their content marketing plan, social media strategy and search engine optimisation activities.


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Gemma Chan on the red carpet in Santa Monica, California, on January 13, 2019.
Gemma Chan at an awards event in London, England, on December 7, 2014.
It was also entirely sheer, though silver glitter and fringe covered the dress from top to bottom.
Carrie Ann grew up dancing the hula native Hawaiian dance and other dance forms.
Even though you're making a week's worth of salad at one time, you can still make them all a little different by varying the types of toppings and dressings you use for each one - get creative! She also played the piano and violin and sang in the choir.
But I wish Zhao hadn't chosen her.
He wrote: That's the problem: there's just too much going on: it's all headed towards yet another 'race against time to stop the really bad thing happening' climax.

domain: celebrity


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An elderly woman never speaks, no longer recognizes her loved ones when they come to visit, and shows no expression. By the looks of her, she is a human vegetable. And she’s been this way for over a year. Her brain’s cerebral cortex and hippocampus — necessary for memory, thought, language, and normal consciousness — [..]
Category: Health Care Surrogate
The typical hospice in the United States undergoes a full government inspection about once every six years, according to federal figures, making it one of the least-scrutinized areas of U.S. health care — even though about half of older Americans receive hospice care at the ends of their lives. By contrast, nursing homes are inspected [..]
Long-Term Care Ombudsman are advocates for residents of nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, adult family care homes and similar adult care facilities. Ombudsman staff and volunteers work to resolve problems and concerns of individual residents to improve the quality of care and quality of life.
It is an individual, 18 years of age or older, whose ability to perform the normal activities of daily living or to provide for his or her own care or protection is impaired due to a mental, emotional, sensory, long-term physical, or developmental disability or dysfunction, or brain damage, or the infirmities of aging. Simply [..]
Seniors have limited options in regard to paying for long-term care. When organizing long-term care, individuals and families must navigate the benefits and requirements of numerous programs, support systems and products, such as: 1. The Role of Medicare Medicare is an unfulfilled promise for many Americans with chronic illnesses. Under this program, eligibility is determined [..]


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In the beginning, there was "What's Going On", one of the greatest soul records ever, released 50 years ago. This is the story of how Marvin Gaye changed the history of the Motown label and of popular music in the 1970s.
Within the family tree of funk, Prince Rogers Nelson, who passed away in April 2016, was a branch all of his own. In the course of a career spanning almost forty years, he managed to blend together the heritage of the founding fathers (James Brown, Sly Stone and George Clinton) with other influences, from rock'n'roll to electronica to jazz. He produced an exuberant, attention-grabbing groove, and his star shone brightest between 1978 and 1988…
It's not easy to elbow your way through the macho Music City scene, the birthplace of country music, when you're a woman. Over the years, some of them have nevertheless managed to shift lines and attitudes, like these ten pioneers and revolutionaries who have put – even stamped – their boots on Nashville's table.

domain: artistic


Archos announced entry of three new high-end line up of Oxygen tablets. ARCHOS 70 Oxygen is price at £75, ARCHOS 80 Oxygen will cost £99.99 and ARCHOS 101b Oxygen will be available for price tag of £119.
Comapny also said that the tablets will be be on display at ARCHOS’s booth – Hall 1 booth 1G29 – at Mobile World Congress. The All 3 Archos tablets will be available in May 2016.
Coming to the specifications of the tablets all three are powered by MTK 8163A Quad-Core processor clocked at 1.3 GHz and Cortex A53. 70 Oxygen and 80 Oxygen features 7-inch and 8-inch FHD (1920×1200) IPS display respectively. While ARCHOS 101b Oxygen comes with 10.1-inch FHD (1920×1280) IPS display. All three are coupled with 2GB RAM and 16 GB internal storage.
Archose Oxygen Tablets sports 5MP AF rear camera with LED Flash. They are also equipped with 2 MP Front Camera. Tablet provides Bluetooth 4.0, Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g/n, GPS, Micro USB 2.0 and POP/IMAP/Exchange Active Sync/SMTP/PushMail connectivity options.
ARCHOS 70 Oxygen, 80 Oxygen and 101b Oxygen are backed by 3000 mAh, 4500 mAh and 6000 mAh Li-ion battery.
“The company’s new high-end Oxygen products, powered by great new technologies, will empower our customers to choose reasonably priced, quality products”, says ARCHOS’ CEO, Loic Poirier. He also adds “We are proud to be one of the forerunners in the portable technology market, but we also continually put ourselves into question and perpetually aim to provide innovative, robustly specked and aesthetically beautiful products and that is what we have done with the Oxygen tablets”.
Check out all MWC 2016 event related news HERE


Showing 1 - 15 Articles out of 20
In order to connect with GenY for its ready-to-wear segment besides fabrics, the brand has roped in some of country’s young entrepreneurs and startup heads.
India's export of leather articles, saddlery and harness, travel goods, handbags and similar containers to the US in December 2014 jumps 18.3% M-o-M, according to InfodriveIndia.com.
Food processing industry now formed an important segment of the Indian Eeconomy in terms of contribution to GDP, employment and investment, and proved to be a major driver in country's growth in near future, says a PTI report quoting a senior government
Even with over 900 million subscribers, India is yet to see strong demand for electronic account services.
Industry bodies and e-commerce firms have said such moves will help SMEs scale up their operations.
The website will give the customer choices for making payment from their mobile money account service, mRUPEE wallet, or netbanking, debit card and credit card


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Scan prices start from £350, with transparent treatment prices and no hidden fees to pay. What is included in the scan price? - A range of diagnostic tests to suit your needs - Expert guidance from Scan.com's friendly clinical team - No referral note or appointment letter needed - our clinicians will provide this quickly and efficiently - Your scan, at a private hospital convenient to you - Digital access to your report and images - Scan results in a format you can understand, with interactive diagrams and definitions.


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Project Open Squish
Squishable Sea Dragon by Cady R.
Voting is Over
Tell me if it's made!
A dragon of a different element! Instead of flying through the skies, they swim through the water.
About the Designer:
I've been working with art for several years, creating my own style and exploring all different types of media. I've found I prefer digital animation and I am hoping to turn that passion into a career.
Learn more about this designer >
Want to chat about Open Squish? Join us on Discord to discuss voting, get help with your design, or ask us pretty much anything!


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parker, dorothy (february 28, 1925) a certain lady the new yorker 1 (2 ): 15–16. [currently, the waltz is probably parker's best known and most frequently otherwise, the social rules for women were as dorothy parker depicts them in the.
Through this essay i will demonstrate the social restrictions and rules that existed for the narrator in the waltz by dorothy parker takes a humorous look at. Name instructor's name course date of submission dorothy parker's “the the waltz research paper example | topics and well written essays - 1000.
Free dorothy parker papers, essays, and research papers this style is shown throughout her work but particularly in the waltz, where the status quo is. The waltz, by dorothy parker from dorothy parker (the viking portable library, 1944) why, thank you so much i'd adore to i don't want to dance with him.
In books of the critical waltz: essays on the work of dorothy parker explains the shortstory of the standard of living as an innocent young.
The short stories eveline (joyce) and the waltz (parker) utilise similar methods overall, placing the focus inward to the thoughts and feelings of. See more ideas about dorothy parker, poet and algonquin round table fabulous flappers - - dorothy parker wrote poetry, short stories, and essays, reviews of zelda's only completed novel, save me the waltz with a printing of only.
Running throughout the waltz great supplemental information for school essays and projects the waltz by dorothy parker get the waltz from amazon. F scott fitzgerald, dorothy parker, thornton wilder works here include stories, reviews and a couple of essays they are read the last four selections – lady with the lamp, the waltz, cousin larry, and a telephone call. 1992 192pp john keats you might as well live: the life and times of dorothy parker the critical waltz: essays on the work of dorothy parker fairleigh.
Keywords: dorothy parker, short stories, flappers, jazz age, feminist criticism, body, satire the critical waltz: essays on the work of dorothy parker madison.Download

domain: library


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Would you spend £195,000 more than the UK’s average property price on your next home because it was near an ‘Outstanding’-rated school?
According to research from September 2020, properties in catchments with a school labelled ‘Outstanding’ by education watchdog Ofsted commanded, on average, a price tag of £446,919 – almost £200,000 more than the UK’s average property price at the time.
In London, research as recently as 2019 suggested parents were prepared to pay as much as £70,000 more for a property if it was in the catchment area for a top state school. All of which means school catchments remain hugely important for family property buyers.
But getting to grips with school catchments in London, and the rules that surround them, can be tricky.
Our guide, however, has the answers you’re looking for…
The rules on London school catchment areas
Catchment rules can vary from area to area, so it’s important to find out how things work where you’re looking to buy in London.
It’s also worth pointing out that simply living in a school’s catchment area doesn’t mean your child is guaranteed a place at that school.
Schools will almost always give places to siblings of current pupils first, before offering remaining places to those who live in catchment.
So, if your child happens to fall in a year group where lots of siblings are offered places, they could still miss out even if you live on the right road.
Other factors that can sometimes affect school applications include:
• Whether your child went to one of the school's official feeder schools
• Your child's religion
• Your child's ability academically
• Any additional needs your child may have
How school catchments work
Most people assume a school catchment area is an imaginary ring around a school and any road that falls inside that ring is ‘in catchment’.
But it’s more complicated than that. In fact, there are four different types of catchment process used by schools in London:
• Straight Line Catchment
• Walking Distance Catchment
• Priority Admission Area
• Nearest School Catchment
Straight Line Catchment
Straight Line Catchment is actually a circular catchment area around a school and properties that fall within this circle are classed as ‘in catchment’.
So, if the school has 40 places remaining after siblings have been offered places, it will offer those to applicants within that ‘circle’ catchment area.
Walking Distance Catchment
Walking Distance Catchment works in a similar way to Straight Line Catchment, but rather than simply forming a circle around the school, applicants are assessed by the walking distance of their home to the school.
This is done along a set walking route, which is established by the local authority and is usually what is deemed to be the shortest ‘safe’ walking route to school.
Priority Admission Area
Priority Admission Areas (PAA) are fixed areas where pupils are admitted to a school as a priority, before any remaining places are offered to other applicants from outside of the area.
Siblings from within the PAA are usually offered places first, followed by other children from within the PAA.
Siblings living outside of the PAA are then offered any remaining places, before other children from outside of the PAA if any further places remain.
Nearest School Catchment
Schools using the Nearest School Catchment process prioritise applicants for whom the school is their nearest.
This means the area around the school is cut up into different spaces and is mainly used when many schools exist within close proximity of one another.
What is the purpose of a catchment area?
Catchment areas are in place to help ensure an even and fair spread of pupils across all schools.
Catchment areas are judged as the fairest way to deal with school applications, although they can be complicated and sometimes see pupils miss out on their chosen schools due to various issues of ‘red tape’.
How long do you have to live in a catchment area?
Most schools usually have a cut-off date by which time you must be living in a property as your main residence in order for it to be considered on a school application. This is to stop parents fraudulently claiming school places by either:
• Renting a property in catchment while also keeping another main residence
• Using a relative’s address on a school application because it is in catchment
Can I send my child to a school outside my catchment area?
There are no rules that say you cannot apply for a school place outside of your catchment area.
However, if applications for that school are strong from families who already have a child at the school, or from within the school’s catchment area, your chances of securing a place will be greatly reduced.
How often do catchment areas change?
School catchment areas change most years, although this depends on which catchment process each school is using.
Those using the Straight Line Catchment or Walking Distance Catchment processes will determine the following year’s catchment area by how far away the final child to be offered a place lived.
That means if a child from outside of the school’s catchment area was given a place, the following year’s catchment area will be larger.
The best London areas to move to for primary and secondary schools
London is home to more than 300 primary schools rated ‘Outstanding’ by Ofsted, meaning there is plenty of choice for parents wanting to live in top catchment areas.
That also means there’s plenty of competition for great properties, however.
Here are our top five areas to live in for ‘Outstanding’ primary and secondary schools…
Bethnal Green has become more and more popular with family renters and buyers over the years and it’s easy to see why.
The area is home to three ‘Outstanding’ primary schools:
• Globe Primary School
• Mowlem Primary School
• Thomas Buxton Primary School
Four secondary schools also carry Ofsted’s ‘Outstanding’ rating:
• Mulberry Academy
• Mulberry School for Girls
Average property price in Bethnal Green: £517,807
Enfield has always been one of London’s best boroughs for families, thanks to great properties and superb transport links into the city.
It’s schools a re pretty great, too, with ‘Outstanding’ primaries including:
• St George’s RC
• Forty Hill CofE
• Enfield Heights
Enfield is also home to two ‘Outstanding’ secondary schools:
• Enfield County School for Girls
• Highlands Secondary School
Average property price in Enfield: £492,657
Finchley’s stock of spacious, rock-solid 1930s homes alongside rows of Victorian and Edwardian terraces, make it a great place for families to put down roots.
When it comes to schools, too, Finchley is an area with plenty of choice. Its ‘Outstanding’ primary schools include:
• St Mary’s CofE
• Our Lady of Lourdes RC
• Moss Hall Infants
• Brooklands Infants
• Brooklands Junior
The area’s ‘Outstanding’ secondaries, meanwhile, are:
• Hasmoneon High for Boys
• Wren Academy CofE
• St Michael’s RC for Girls
Average property price in Finchley: £648,975
When it comes to areas famed for education, Harrow is one of the best known.
No fewer than four British Prime Ministers were educated at the prestigious Harrow School, but the area doesn’t stop there when it comes to superb schools.
Harrow’s ‘Outstanding’ primary schools include:
• St Anselm’s RC
• Byron Court
• St Joseph’s RC
• Mount Stewart Junior
• Newton Farm
• St Bernadette’s RC
Its secondary schools are superb, too, with ‘Outstanding’ ones in:
• Whitmore High
• Sacred Heart Language College
• Nower Hill High
• Claremont High
• Bentley Wood High
Average property price in Harrow: £484,493
Currently enjoying a period of regeneration, Tottenham is a North London hotspot on the up.
Its schools have always impressed, though, and this is one of the reasons why the area has long been popular with families.
The area’s ‘Outstanding’ primary schools include:
• Belmont Junior
• Holmleigh Primary
• Springfield Community Primary
• Crowland Primary
For secondary schools, Cladesmore Community comes out on top with Ofsted’s best rating.
Average property price in Tottenham: £447,198
If you’re looking to buy a new home and catchment areas are high on your wish list, you may need to sell quickly in order to move before the next school application deadline.
Auction can be a great way to sell your home faster, so take a look at our guide to selling this way.


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The following appeared in the January/February issue of Junior Baseball:
by: Matt Nadel
One of my favorite events during the baseball season is the All Star Game. There have been some great All Star Games in the past that, for example, ended in walk-off fashion or featured some iconic players doing iconic things, but I think that when introducing the history of the All Star Game, one MUST start the conversation with the 1933 All Star Game held in Comiskey Park in Chicago, the first ever Major League Baseball All Star Game.
Let’s start with some fun facts!
Fact 1: The game was actually part of the 1933 Chicago World’s Fair.
Fact 2: It was supposed to be a one-time thing in order to boost morale and baseball’s reputation during the worst years of the Great Depression.
Fact 3: Arch Ward, a sports editor for the Chicago Tribune, is credited with coming up with the idea after the mayor of Chicago at the time, Edward Kelly, wanted some sort of sporting event to tie into the World’s Fair.
Fact 4: Fans got to set the lineups for the American and National Leagues.
Fact 5: The NL players wore “NL-themed” uniforms, while the AL players actually just wore their home jerseys for whichever AL team they played for.
The most important thing about this game was the rosters. 20 of the 36 All Stars, five of the six coaches, and even two of the four umpires would eventually be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Here are some of the biggest names: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Carl Hubbell, Jimmie Foxx, John McGraw, Connie Mack, and Eddie Collins (as a coach). Other Cooperstown names include Paul Waner, Al Simmons, Lefty Gomez, Lefty Grove, Pie Traynor, Gabby Hartnett, Joe Cronin, and Charlie Gehringer. I could name the rest of the Hall of Famers, but then I would have no room to give more information on the game.
47,000+ fans showed up on July 6, 1933 to watch an All Star Game that was fairly uneventful for the most part. Probably the biggest star of the game was (as you probably guessed already) Babe Ruth, who hit the first ever All Star Game home run, a two-run shot in the bottom of the third with Gehringer on first base after drawing a walk, and making a nice catch at the right field wall in the top of the eighth. After a little over two hours of baseball, the AL won the game, 4-2. No MVP was given out for the game, as the first All Star Game MVP wouldn’t be given out for another 30 years or so, but I would’ve given it to Ruth. His Hall of Fame teammate Lefty Gomez got the win for the AL, tossing three solid innings of shutout baseball.
After the success of the first-ever “Midsummer Classic,” even though the game was supposed to be just for the World’s Fair, the event was held in the summer of 1934 and every summer since besides 1945 (due to WWII). What a wonderful way for fans of all shapes and sizes to come together to watch a sporting event. Other leagues, like the NFL, NBA, and NHL would eventually come up with their own types of All Star Games, but the MLB’s will always be remembered as the first one of its kind.
Ensure you receive more great content like this by signing up for a Junior Baseball subscription today!
Posted on 01/29/2018 at 02:15 PM

domain: game


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News of the Week (March 27-31)
Lululemon; SoFi; Block; Uber; CrowdStrike; Microsoft; Meta Platforms; Visa; Amazon; Apple; Progyny; Lemonade; Macro; My Activity
1. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) -- Q4 2022 Earnings Review
In January, Lululemon updated its revenue guidance from $2.63 billion to $2.68 billion. It beat this raised guidance by 3.4% and beat the subsequently raised analyst estimate by 2.6%.
Lululemon saw inventory rise by 57% YoY when excluding a Mirror inventory impairment and 50% YoY with that impact. This compares to guidance of 60% YoY inventory growth. Lower growth is preferred here.
More Quarterly Demand Context:
30% YoY growth was 33% currency (FX) neutral.
Revenue rose 29% YoY in North America and 35% internationally.
27% YoY total comp store sales growth was 30% FX neutral.
Direct to consumer (DTC) represented 52% of sales vs. 49% YoY.
More 2022 Demand Context:
Revenue rose 30% YoY for 2022 with total comp store sales rising 25% YoY.
It opened 81 stores during 2022.
Three Year Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs):
23% for women; 26% for men; 44% for accessories; 46% for e-commerce.
New and existing guest transactions rose in the mid 20% range.
Store productivity is above 2019 levels. Store traffic rose 30% YoY and has compounded at a 3-year rate of 7%.
Digital traffic rose 45% YoY and has compounded at a 3-year rate of 40%.
Lululemon guided to its adjusted gross margin falling by 100 bps as part of its January update. It beat this expectation by 30 bps.
Missed GAAP EBIT estimates by 58.4%. This includes a $408 million Mirror goodwill charge. Non-GAAP EBIT, which excludes this impact, beat estimates by 3.5%.
Missed $4.25 GAAP EPS estimates & its identical guide by $3.31 due to the same Mirror goodwill charge. Non-GAAP EPS, which excludes this charge, beat $4.25 estimates by $0.15.
Beat free cash flow (FCF) estimates by 29.5%.
More Margin Context:
GAAP margins were hard hit by a $442.7 million Mirror goodwill impairment charge. This stemmed from disappointing hardware sales for the segment and a shift in go-to-market strategy explained below.
Adjusted gross margin ex-Mirror impairment was 57.4%. This was hurt by 50 bps of FX headwinds.
SG&A actually enjoyed 50 bps of FX YoY benefits for the quarter.
GAAP Gross margin for 2022 fell from 57.7% to 55.4%.
GAAP EBIT was flat YoY due to the mirror impairment charge. Ex-impairment charge, EBIT rose 30% YoY. Similarly, GAAP EPS fell from $7.49 in 2021 to $6.68 in 2022. This is all related to Mirror. Ex-impairment charge EPS rose 29.2% from $7.79 to $10.07 YoY.
c) Balance Sheet
Lulu generated $838 million in FCF during the quarter. This allowed it to greatly bolster its cash position which now sits at $1.2 billion.
Bought back $69 million in stock this quarter vs. $17 million QoQ & $321 million YoY.
It has about 75% of its $1 billion buyback left.
It has $393.5 million available in credit capacity.
Inventory rose 50% YoY but fell 16.9% QoQ. Q3 2022 was supposed to be the “high water mark” for its inventory position which looks to be the case. Leadership guided to inventory continuing to normalize with YoY growth rates here matching revenue for the 2nd half of the year. It’s encouraging to see Lululemon execute this normalization with quite modest rises in discount rates.
d) Forward Guidance
Beat revenue estimates by 3.4%.
Beat $1.65 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.31.
“Significant GPM expansion” via lower air freight charges and promotional normalization. Gross margin estimates sharply rose from 53.9% to 56.8% following the call.
“We continue to see strength and momentum across the business so far in Q1.” -- CEO Calvin MacDonald
Beat revenue estimates by 2.4%. Its revenue guide implies 15.5% growth which is slightly above its longer-term target despite comping vs. 30% growth in 2022.
Beat $11.30 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.31.
EBIT margin to rise by roughly 30 bps vs. 10 bps of expansion expected.
Will open 45-50 new stores with 30-35 openings happening abroad and most of those being earmarked for China.
Gross margin to expand by 150 bps YoY due to freight benefits and stabilizing markdowns. This implies a 56.9% margin vs. analyst estimates calling for 56.2%. These estimates rose to 57.3% following the report.
CapEx to rise sharply to $670 million YoY in 2023 due to distribution center investments, store openings and remodels. It is building a new facility in LA and expanding capacity in Columbus and Toronto. This will be a temporary margin headwind.
It remains fully on track to execute on its Power of Three x2 plan which calls for 15% compounded revenue growth and modest operating leverage through 2027.
“While we are mindful of the ongoing macro uncertainties and we continue to plan the business prudently, we're excited with our sales trends in Q1 and also the benefits we expect to realize in 2023 from lower air freight and our new Lululemon Studio model… We can invest into our growth pillars while delivering operating margin in 2023 slightly ahead of our goal.” -- CFO Meghan Frank
e) Call & Release Highlights
Market Share Gains:
Lululemon took 230 bps of incremental YoY market share within its adult active apparel category. This rapidly rose from 130 bps of share gains last quarter. It was its largest quarterly gain in 3 years which is according to 3rd party research from NPD Group -- not per internal data.
Growing Brand Awareness & International Traction:
Since April 2022, Lululemon raised its brand awareness in the following geographies as follows:
From 19% to 24% in Australia.
From 7% to 9% in China. China revenue rose 30% YoY as the country opened up and so business vastly accelerated into 2023. A tough December due to lockdowns held back results here for the quarter.
From 14% to 16% in the U.K.
Change in Subscription & Mirror Strategy:
Lulu is shifting away from go-to-market Mirror hardware growth investments. It is launching a brand-new digital fitness app this summer, with a lower subscription price, which will become the focal point of this refreshed approach. It’s pivoting away from Mirror investments as falling customer acquisition cost (CAC) has not been meaningful enough to justify continued spend. By removing hardware needs associated with accessing the digital content, it hopes to remove friction associated with becoming a member and to, in turn, accelerate growth.
Its Essentials members tier (which is a free loyalty program) is already seeing “robust new member growth.” This growth is “significantly exceeding expectations with 9 million members in just 9 months.” Lulu does NOT offer discounts through this program… just other perks like early product access. These members engage with the brand more frequently, spend 9% more (all incremental) and retain more reliably.
“Since our acquisition, the at-home fitness space has been challenging. While members love our content, hardware sales did not match expectations. As we continue to invest prudently in this business, we are evolving the model from being focused on hardware-only to offering content through a digital and app-based solution as well. We think the lower cost of entry will allow us to more easily migrate and attract guests into it.” -- CEO Calvin MacDonald
On Mark Downs:
The firm “managed business very well through a highly promotional environment.” Discount rates were just 40 bps higher than 2019 and stable YoY.
Importantly, as it moved through the holiday season, regular price sales “returned to normal levels.”
“We don’t drive top line growth through discounts or promotions and have no intentions to do so. We run a full-price business with markdowns strategically used to clear seasonal and other select products. This will remain our approach.” -- CEO Calvin MacDonald
There was not much color offered on the progress of this product expansion. Leadership told us that they’re “pleased with the performance and guest response.” It will debut its first road to trail running shoe this year while debuting its first men’s shoe in 2024. It’s hard to imagine it would be moving ahead with these plans if this endeavor was not going well.
f) My Take
Besides a one-off Mirror impairment charge due to some ill-advised M&A, this was a flawless quarter for Lululemon. Share gains were robust, margins are set to materially expand and both new and core products and geographies continue to provide ample opportunities. I also love the decision to bite the bullet on Mirror hardware and focus on stickier subscription packages. It’s the right move and shows a willingness and openness from leadership to right previous wrongs.
This is the hottest brand in its category with no slowdown in sight despite being a relatively luxury-goods seller amid hectic macro. This climbed into a top 5 position for me this past week and I’m entirely fine with that.
2. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) -- M&A Rumors
For several months, SoFi leadership has hinted at wanting to fully own its purchase mortgage business and to vertically integrate the back-end processes that it entails. Partners were struggling with timely funding (often taking up to 90 days) which was forcing SoFi to hold off on aggressively investing into the segment.
Well? There are new rumors swirling that SoFi will buy Wyndham Capital to fill the void of this backend cohesion. Three Twitter accounts were all over this news and I wanted to give them credit for their excellent research. To DataDInvesting, Vadim Kotlarov and Trust_In_Noto, wonderful work. Thank you to all three of you.
This has not yet been confirmed by SoFi, but there are multiple pieces of compelling evidence pointing to this being a done deal. There was a SoFi email leak that was passed around Twitter and typing in Wyndham’s web domain directed searchers to SoFi as of Wednesday. Beyond these hints, SoFi merger documents were filed in Wyndham’s home state this week. This means the announcement should be coming sometime in early April.
Wyndham Capital Mortgage is a 22-year-old provider of digital purchase mortgage applications. It calls itself a “Fintech mortgage lender.” The firm has been working tirelessly to make this “clunky, crowded and difficult process” far more seamless, expedient, automated and delightful for customers. Wyndham specializes in “augmented intelligence” or the process of using AI/ML models to support employees instead of replacing them. Every mundane, tedious task is automated by its engineers while customer service talent ensures human touch is available when needed.
The approach has allowed it to grow to 500+ employees, 100,000 originated loans, $30 billion in volume, and 20% faster close time than the industry average (exactly the metric SoFi was looking to improve). So, what does this acquisition mean? Simply put, it means that post integration, SoFi will finally be able to step on the gas pedal for growing its mortgage business. It should now have the technology, talent, and processes in place to condense 90-day funding windows to 30 days or less. Furthermore, the vertical integration will mean less 3rd party fees to make SoFi a lower cost provider just like Galileo and Technisys help it to do.
The timing of this acquisition is perfect in my view. The tumultuous mortgage backdrop likely means SoFi is getting a good deal. We’ll have to wait for transaction terms to come out to confirm this. But regardless, buying a digital mortgage originator as the Fed Funds rate peaks and likely falls later in the year or early in 2024 offers an ideal macro concoction to make this move.
3. Block (SQ) -- Short Report Response
Block released a compelling response to the Hindenburg short report released last week. It directly refuted what I saw to be the most serious claims brought forth by the research. I am not a shareholder but, in my view, investors should feel very good about this counter. Here were the highlights.
On Multiple Accounts:
Block rightfully reminded investors that multiple accounts per ID is not evidence of fraud, but merely based on Cash App use cases. Customers frequently maintain different accounts for personal and business use and even for different objectives like day-to-day payments and budgeting per the report.
It intentionally discloses transacting active users as a traffic metric to be conservative with its reporting. This format only counts a person as active if they transact through Cash App. Others solely require a customer to log into an app or enter a web page to count them as an active user.
44 million of the 51 million transacting users come with verified IDs. 13% of the remaining 7 million have verified their IDs since December 2022 when this metric was last updated. 97% of cash app inflows come from verified accounts. Of the 44 million verified users, 39 million come with unique social security numbers. Even with this most stringent measure of unique active accounts, a maximum of 24% of its accounts (and surely far less) are fraudulent vs. the 40%-75% estimate that Hindenburg offered.
Lastly, Block’s risk loss rate (associated with illegal activity, fraud and rejected transactions) has been at or below 0.20% of inflows for the last several years and has fallen further to 0.12% as of the end of 2022. This would not be falling if illegal drug and sex rings were running more and more rampant on the platform.
Block maintains that it is in full compliance with the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulation. It has a dedicated team to ensure constant compliance as well as an independent 3rd party review team to audit its practices annually. Because Block runs a highly regulated industrial bank, it would be hard to believe blatant violations of these laws would go un-penalized for several years.
Unless Block is explicitly lying about these figures (which I don’t at all think is the case and would shock me) this response effectively put to bed most of Hindenburg’s thesis.
4. Uber Technologies (UBER) -- Virtual Restaurants & Gopuff
a) Virtual Restaurants
Uber launched the Certified Virtual Restaurant Program this week in partnership with Virtual Dining Concepts and others. Uber’s clients have long asked for more hands-on service to stand up their own virtual dining concepts. This initiative is how Uber will offer more of an end-to-end structure to remove friction involved in doing so. It allows high quality brand clients to be matched with a partner and Uber sales reps to structure the business model, brand design and operational workflows.
It will help merchants be more successful (which makes Uber more successful) and also create a higher quality roster of virtual dining concepts. Since the pandemic struck, these types of listings on the Uber Eats app quadruped to 40,000. This added clutter led to growing customer complaints around option clutter and decision fatigue. This is Uber’s response to make sure virtual brand listings are relevant and appropriate going forward. As part of this news, Uber will no longer allow restaurants to list their menus under multiple brand names.
“We’re matchmakers with this program. We just try to connect folks who want to grow their business with a virtual restaurant or some experienced, quality brand builders and content creators.” -- Uber Head of Virtual Restaurants and Dark Kitchens John Mullenholz
Gopuff has been using Uber to fulfill 4% of its orders since Q4 2022.
Uber owns a ride sharing company in the Middle East called Careem. Careem is in the process of raising funding from the Emirates Telecommunications Group to expand into other product categories.
Uber will debut its “Comfort Electric” all-EV ride sharing product to 14 more North American markets.
5. CrowdStrike (CRWD) -- Falcon Fund Investment
CrowdStrike’s venture fund (called Falcon Fund) invested in “Abnormal Security” this week. Abnormal security specializes in email security. The investment includes a tight new partnership to integrate both platforms while Abnormal will become the newest member of CrowdStrike’s extended detection and response (XDR) network. As XDR is the extension of EDR and relies on infusing 3rd party data sources to extend its reach beyond the endpoint -- the more partners, the merrier. According to the press release, when a vulnerability or breach is uncovered by Falcon, Abnormal Security (when relevant) will now be prompted to require more layers of identity verification.
6. Microsoft (MSFT) & Google (GOOGL) -- AI-Powered Search:
Microsoft is threatening enterprise customers of its Bing search engine that it will restrict access to the service if they use it to build search engine AI models. Companies that could be impacted include Yahoo and DuckDuckGo. The AI-powered search race and competition is in full swing. Google’s Bard, Microsoft’s/OpenAI’s ChatGPT and incoming language and visualization models from Baidu, Meta and Amazon are all rapidly coming to market.
Because AI models fully rely on an effective scale of data for seasoning, Google’s Bard is clearly in the poll position to win this race. BUT… Google has enjoyed that poll position in a somewhat monopolistic manner for decades. Now, there are formidable competitors seriously investing to take a piece of this pie. It’s hard to see Google ceding its share and becoming extinct. It’s easier to see it potentially losing a percent or two of its market position which still would be needle moving for its overall results.
7. Meta Platforms (META) -- Miscellaneous
Credit Suisse was the latest institution to turn positive on Meta stock. The decision is due to the thriving click to message ad business now more than offsetting revenue losses from Apple’s cross app data sharing restrictions. Whether it’s ample opportunity to enhance ad load here or more ad placements coming for Instagram in areas like search, there are multiple high-margin growth levers for Meta to pull as it also cuts costs to bolster profitability.
Meta will permit European consumers to opt out of some ad formats. This is an attempt to appease EU regulators not wanting to allow Meta to force users into enabling ad targeting as part of the terms of service agreement that none of us read. It also follows large fines issued by Ireland regulators for what it saw as unlawful targeting. Users will have to manually submit a request to block more precise and personal targeting which will likely deter a large chunk from doing so.
This is still an opt in system vs. opt out with open internet platforms like The Trade Desk. It will be interesting to see if this is enough to satisfy lawmakers.
Meta plans to slash bonus payments.
8. Visa (V) -- M&A Attempt
Visa made another offer to buy Brazilian-based Pismo for $1.4 billion. Pismo offers an end to end, cloud-native processing platform in Latin America and calls several large financial institutions in that region its clients. It offers application programming interfaces (APIs) to allow B2B clients to extend into digital banking, wallets and card issuance with an asset-light, software-first approach.
9. Amazon (AMZN) -- AMC
Amazon is rumored to be considering an acquisition of AMC in what would be a clear evolution in its content creation and streaming strategy. Amazon has and will continue to ramp content spend to amplify the appeal of its Prime subscription. This offers it yet another avenue to monetize that content and grants it the ability to tie in more value to its overall bundle with things like special access to early viewings. It also gives it another brick-and-mortar chain to test its checkout biometrics technology.
10. Apple (AAPL) -- BNPL
Apple is launching its own version of a buy now, pay later (BNPL) product. It had some financing partnerships in place with competitors like Affirm in the past, but it’s now ready to do all of this on its own. It’s hard to see how standalone BNPL players can compete with this offering. Apple will make it a core part of its pay suite and so iPhone utility. And furthermore, it has exponentially more training data to sharpen underwriting models than any alternative.
This is why I’ve always said BNPL needs to be a tool in the toolkit and not the entire suite. There’s nothing special about offering this installment product alone and nothing difficult about deep pocketed entrants competing. What makes it more difficult to replace is when the service is tied into several other, value creating products and an aggregate scale of data that can more closely match Apple’s. This is why later entrants like PayPal have been able to take such rapid share in this space. I expect that Apple will too.
The product closely mirrors others on the market. It allows users to split transactions into 4 separate charges in a 0 interest and 0 fee manner. Other alternatives like Square’s Afterpay have hefty late fees. For now, the credit product is only for purchases up to $1,000 in size.
11. Progyny (PGNY) -- Short Report
Hedgeye announced a new Progyny short. The report spoke through many of the same issues addressed in the first two short reports that I covered with a few additions that I’ll discuss here. The overall takeaway was that its business will be hurt if fertility treatment trends slow. Obviously, they’re right. Every business will be hurt if their industry slows. Here are all of the reasons why I think that slowing will not happen:
The United States lags every comparable developed nation in terms of proportion of births via fertility treatments. We sit between 2% and 3% today while every other comparable geography is between 4% and 10%. This gap is solely related to fertility treatment in the U.S. requiring far more out of pocket expense vs. these other nations. It has nothing to do with different population characteristics as 12.5% of couples in the U.S. have some sort of fertility issue which is consistent with comparable markets. That’s the essence of Progyny’s business model: To carve out a covered, carrier integrated, customizable fertility treatment solution to boost efficacy, lower cost and boost access. Within this untapped opportunity, Progyny is the carve-out market share leader, yet calls well under 5% of its total addressable market (TAM) clients.
Some point to falling birth rates as evidence of Progyny’s business growing out of favor. To those people (not Hedgeye), I would recommend a biology course. The largest reason for falling birth rates is women thankfully enjoying more career-based opportunities than previous generations -- and so deciding to have children later in life. The older a woman gets, the more likely it is that they’ll need treatment. So? Falling birth rates are actually a net AMPLIFIER of demand for Progyny as they’re largely the result of falling fertility rates. Yes, less births overall will hit its growth opportunity somewhat, but the net benefit is positive.
b) Utilization & Demand
There have been concerns presented about Progyny’s utilization rate. It was as follows by year:
1.23% in 2022
1.30% in 2021
1.16% in 2020
1.30% in 2019
While the trend looks somewhat lower, there are a few items that must be called out. First, 2020 was impacted by a temporary, pandemic-related halting of new fertility treatments. Variants continued hitting demand throughout 2020 and pent-up demand unleashed in 2021 which led to the sharp recovery.
So what happened in 2022? Progyny thrived in 2022, that’s what happened. Its new clients ALWAYS start at utilization rate troughs with that metric gradually rising as they mature (it has 99%+ client retention). It vastly outperformed guidance and street expectations on new clients in 2022. This -- per leadership -- was the source of the utilization rate dip. Importantly, its guidance assumes no improvement to this rate which has been called pessimistic by leadership.
Furthermore, its utilization rate closely correlates with overall revenue. It would not have been able to offer such a robust 2023 guidance if utilization was suddenly tanking. Based on the last several years of public market data, the company has a strong track record of effectively modeling forward results largely thanks to the high level of visibility and predictability in its business model. And there’s no slowdown in view. The 2023 selling season has been called a great success thus far by leadership with most of these wins impacting 2024 results. It gave nearly identical commentary on how the selling season is shaping up as it did in 2020-2022 when that process went so overwhelmingly swimmingly.
As an aside, its brand-new male-facing extension of the fertility bundle should gradually lift overall utilization over time.
c) Efficiency Force Multiplier Amid Poor Macro
Fertility treatment demand was relatively resilient during the Great Financial Crisis. Progyny leadership frequently talks about how growth slowed, but remained positive throughout. This is during a time when fertility was largely client cash pay while Progyny frees its treatment cycles to be covered by large enterprises. Amazon is more reliable when it comes to repayment than an individual.
Progyny’s outcome-based advantages have consistently grown in all relevant fertility categories over the last 6 years. This includes boasting more successful treatment and healthier live birth rates. Because treatment plans routinely cost $60,000 a pop, less cycles per pregnancy are a real cost saver. Furthermore, less NICU usage and less twins (AKA “million-dollar babies”) also greatly lower costs. Specifically, Progyny saves clients 25%-30% vs. alternatives on average. So? Amid hectic macro, Progyny’s sector remains in high demand while its specific offering saves clients money due to better outcomes. This becomes more sought out when the economy turns sour -- especially as fertility treatment becomes more and more table stakes for hiring coveted talent.
Finally, some of the recent short research sounds the alarm on un-billed accounts receivable (AR) as well as bad debt expense. On bad debt expense, it’s very stable and consistently low so I don’t know where that argument came from. On un-billed AR, that issue stemmed from the same thing as utilization -- rapid new client additions. There’s a time lag between Progyny authorizing treatments for new clients and starting to collect cash. Thankfully, its EBITDA to cash conversion soared higher in Q4 2022 as un-billed AR normalized.
d) Don’t Fear Layoffs and Follow the Numbers
Tech layoffs are a weekly headline at this point. Nearly 20% of Progyny’s clients preside in tech. So? Some have rightfully worried that this will weigh on its covered lives growth. My response:
Progyny’s robust 2023 guidance assumes 0 organic existing client employee growth. It has called this assumption pessimistic just like with utilization.
Progyny has clients across 40 industries. Member growth in every industry besides tech is positive and more than offsetting this hit.
Leadership has explicitly told us this is a “non-event” for its business. It’s pushing 5 million covered lives and the U.S. has had roughly 100,000 tech layoffs total. Some of these were contractors that didn’t have access to Progyny’s benefits in the first place and many were also not Progyny clients.
I’m candidly tired of wasting my time reading reports from firms that have not taken the time to master the business model. This report wasn’t offensive, inflammatory, or blatantly inaccurate like the first two, but it was still underwhelming and offered nothing that I find remotely concerning. That’s why these firms resort to condescension and personal jabs on social media: They know the quality and completeness of their arguments are lacking. My arguments are complete because I obsessively take the time to make sure that they are and keep my mouth shut if they aren’t. I will continue to read/watch/listen to all legitimate opinions with an open mind. Like with the first two reports, this does not change my views on the company in the least. Time will tell if I’m right to have that opinion.
12. Lemonade (LMND) -- Car Insurance
Lemonade debuted its car insurance offering in Oregon this past week. This is the final piece of the puzzle for bringing its bundle up to par with most incumbents. As management has told us in the past, it had been “operating with a hand tied behind its back” by not being able to combine and discount home/renters and car offerings.
This newfound ability in Illinois raised its retention rate from 83% to 93% immediately to give an idea of how powerful this bundle truly is. Now, Lemonade has the needed products to marry with its more automated, slicker, and more delightful on-boarding and claims processes. The company remains utterly hated by investors as macro headwinds rage, inflation rates temporarily hit its loss rates and its losses improve slower than I expected. That last nugget is why I paused adding a few months ago, but I have no plans to exit my position. I still believe that this company can turn into a wildly successful business and investment. We’ll see. Today, it does not deserve more than a tiny portion of any portfolio.
a) Data from the Week
February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Data:
YoY core rose 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected and 4.7% last month.
Month over Month (MoM) core rose 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.5% last month.
YoY rose 5% vs. 5.1% expected and 5.3% last month.
MoM PCE rose 0.3% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.6% last month.
2-yr note auction closed at a 3.954% yield vs. 4.673% at the previous auction.
5-yr auction closed at a 3.665% yield vs. 4.109% at the previous auction.
Consumer and Employment Data:
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March was 104.2 vs. 101 expected and 103.4 last month.
Initial Jobless Claims were 198,000 vs. 196,000 expected and 191,000 last month.
Pending Home Sales rose 0.8% month over month (MoM) for February vs. -2.3% expected and 8.1% last month.
Personal Spending rose 0.2% MoM in February vs. 0.3% expected and 0.2% last month.
Michigan Consumer Expectations reading was 59.2 vs. 61.5 expected and 64.7 last month.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading was 62 vs. 63.2 expected and 63.4 last month.
Economic Output data:
Q4 GDP rose 2.6% vs. 2.7% expected and 3.2% last month.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 43.8 vs. 43.4 expected and 43.6 last month.
5 year breakeven inflation has risen a bit over the last 2 weeks but remains in a longer term downtrend:
High Yield Option Adjusted Corporate Credit Spreads fell this week as liquidity conditions improved following the banking sector issues & Fed intervention:
b) Level Setting the Data
Nothing changed from this week and my macro-outlook over the last few issues. This week’s PCE fortified that reality. Inflationary data continues to improve at a faster clip than employment and output data weakens. This makes a mild recession the most likely outcome in my mind and creates a somewhat ideal setup for long duration risk assets.
14. My Activity
I made small trims to Duolingo and Meta Platforms this past week.

domain: finance


In Namibia’s mid-year budget review, the government forecast calls for the economy to grow 2.8 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2023, slightly lower than earlier forecasts of 2.9 percent and 3.7 percent.
The downward growth revisions reflect updated data from industrial surveys, especially on output from the mining sector and year-to-date performance. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is projected to be around 5.3 percent of GDP in the 2022/23 financial year compared to 5.6 percent estimated in the main budget in February.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to increase from 69.6 percent in 2022-23 and peak in the next fiscal year. Referring to next year’s plans, the minister said that “the FY2023/24 fiscal strategy will centre on maintaining prudent expenditure management and promoting economic recovery. Accordingly, the government will focus on entrenching fiscal sustainability and stabilising the pace of debt accumulation.”


text:
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domain: entertainment