Question for Short Debate
My Lords, I start by welcoming the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, to his first debate in the Moses Room. It is a gruelling ordeal that he faces but I am sure he will come through with flying colours.
This is the first of two debates the House will be holding this week on opinion polls. Part two comes tomorrow on the Bill introduced by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, providing for the regulation of opinion polling. I understand that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, will be discussing in particular the polls and general election of 2015. That is a very hot topic and I look forward to contributing to the debate, which has attracted some distinguished and knowledgeable speakers. This afternoon I want to concentrate on something much narrower: the increasing problem of polls conducted by pollsters that are designed to achieve only the results that those who commission them require.
Let me say straight away that many polls commissioned by bodies with an interest are scrupulously conducted. I am sure that that was true of everything done by the noble Lord, Lord Cooper, at Populus. As it happens, on the way in I was looking at a YouGov poll on immigration and it was scrupulous, with absolutely balanced questions. However, alas, other companies will stop at nothing to get the results the commissioner wants. I will concentrate today on one example, on which I wrote to all Peers on 27 March. The company concerned is ComRes and the poll was on mitochondrial transfer. It figured largely in the House’s debate on the subject on 24 February. Replying to that debate, the noble Earl, Lord Howe—for whom the adjective “saintly” might have been invented—was uncharacteristically fierce. This is what he said:
“My noble friend also referred to the ComRes poll and suggested that we had somehow unfairly dismissed it. The ComRes poll was commissioned by the CARE organisation—Christian Action Research and Education—which I understand opposes the introduction of mitochondrial donation. An evaluation of the survey was conducted by Pier Logistics and Gene Rowe Evaluations. The evaluators considered the survey to be a deeply flawed piece of work. They criticised the intentional use of what they described as, ‘sensationalist, inflammatory and misleading language to characterize the debate’. There was also considered to be, ‘An unreasonable degree of selectivity within respondents’ informational options’”—
that means what respondents were told—
“‘and the intimation of an exercise focused on the generation of self-ordained results’”—
in other words, what pollsters wanted.
“The evaluation summary commented that the survey was, ‘a good example of poor public consultation’”.—[Official Report, 24/2/15; col. 1621.]
Now, I have some experience of polling. I advised Jim Callaghan on polls. Unfortunately, he did not take my advice to go to the country in 1978—otherwise who knows what might have happened to history since? I commissioned polls for the Sunday Times. I was a member of the advisory committee of NatCen, an academic pollster, and I am co-chair of the All-Party Group on Statistics. I believe in polling. Good polling can contribute to public policy-making in a democracy. But it has to be good polling and this ComRes poll is not good polling. It is polling ruthlessly designed by an organisation driven by faith—that is, CARE—and a polling company driven by greed to get the answers it wanted.
Moreover, ComRes has previous in this field. CARE again asked it to design a poll showing public opposition to the Dignity in Dying campaign and the Bill it was promoting. I remember being involved at the time and, again, twisted questions were shamelessly paraded in a bid to persuade policymakers that the public was opposed to legislative change. This kind of polling is not helpful to anyone. Classically, when I wrote to ComRes to say that I was approaching Peers about its poll, which I have already discussed, its reaction was to threaten me with legal action. That is not how debate should be conducted in a democracy.
So what should we do about this? One thing would be to leave it to the market. ComRes has been well and truly rumbled on this occasion, and its reputation will suffer as a result. I hope that I have had some success in persuading noble Lords not to agree to participate in future ComRes polling—I certainly will not myself after this experience. In any case, any organisation thinking of commissioning the company will think twice, because it will know that, again, it will be a twisted poll and will be the subject of ridicule by Peers, MPs, and even journalists. It is of some consolation to me that the mitochondrial poll, which was much quoted in our debate, received practically no national press publicity. I think that that was because the questions were so blatantly loaded that even without careful study it was obvious that it amounted to nothing. However, I do not think that relying on the market is good enough—not all such crooked polls will be as easily identified, other firms may be tempted down the ComRes route, and propaganda dressed as evidence may become endemic. Therefore, some form of regulation is required.
Unfortunately, existing regulation is inadequate. Faced with the ComRes poll, my first thought was to appeal to the British Polling Council—surely that is what it is for. But it is not. The British Polling Council is a perfectly good organisation—I am thrilled with the inquiry it has set up into the failings of the polls during the general election, so I do not criticise it—but its remit is incredibly tightly restricted. It makes sure that polls publish the questions that they ask—the size of their samples and the techniques they use, which is of course a very good thing—but it does not have any rules that dictate that the questions must be fair and not loaded, and so it is inadequate.
I turn next to the Market Research Society, whose slogan, with which I strongly agree, is “Evidence Matters”. The rules at the MRS are not very specific, but there is a general principle that:
“Researchers shall protect the reputation and integrity of the profession”,
on which I have hung my complaint. However, it must be said that by no means all polling companies are members of the MRS, so I have had to find an individual member within the company I am complaining about, Mr Andrew Hawkins, the chairman—who is a member—and that way I am able to pursue the complaint. I will see how I get on; I do not wish to prejudge that in any way. However, that does not amount to an adequate system of regulation.
One alternative would of course be direct state regulation—it would be easy for people reading the terms of my question to think that I am in favour of that—but despite the wording of the question, I rather hope that the Government are not contemplating statutory regulation, at least for now.
This is about what would be effective. If you put in statutory rules—I know this, having been on the Personal Investment Authority, which has incredible powers; there are papers 12 miles thick—companies then set out to find ways to evade the regulations. Again, as we know, in the area of financial services they have been pretty effective at it. What is needed in the polling industry is a change of culture—or rather the culture that is applied by the best should be applied to the whole industry and not be circumvented by Johnny-come-latelys, those on the make, and so on.
A change of culture is more likely to happen if it is done by self-regulation, where you are judged by a group of your peers, rather than by imposed external regulation. Ideally, therefore, I would like to see a self-regulator modelled on the Advertising Standards Authority, on whose council I was once privileged to sit. I know that my noble friend Lady Hayter has reservations about the ASA; that is because all my complaints are upheld and all hers are turned down, to summarise in shorthand. Seriously, however, it does have the respect of the advertising industry and the public, and I believe that most people have confidence in its rules.
Maybe good will triumph in this, or maybe it will not, with companies such as ComRes willing to stoop low to make a quick buck and continuing to prosper. I do not know why the noble Lord, Lord McColl, says, “disgraceful”. He will get a chance to make his own speech; if he wishes to defend these practices, he can do so then. It would be a sad outcome if companies such as ComRes triumph, and this is where the Minister comes in. As I have said, I do not look to him to promise state regulation—I hope that he will not—but I look to him to express ministerial concern and to urge the industry to consider its own regulation. If the industry had the impression that if it did not act the Government might have to consider doing so, it would be a very good thing and would get the right kind of self-regulation in place.
My Lords, I think it was generally accepted that the 2015 election was not the pollsters’ finest hour, although I have to admit that I, too, got it wrong: I predicted to my friends a Conservative majority of 20, so I was out by eight seats. The vast majority of companies in the industry predicted the vote shares of most of the parties correctly within the margin of error, and several were within the margin of error on all vote shares.
The British Polling Council and the Market Research Society were exceptionally fast in, first, recognising that things had not gone as well as they should have, and, secondly, setting up a comprehensive review under the auspices of Professor Patrick Sturgis at Southampton University. That review has yet to hear evidence—its first session is actually tomorrow—so we should not prejudge its outcome.
That said, the vast majority of polls during the campaign pointed to a much closer result than we eventually saw and it is right to consider the implications of that variance. Establishing a regulatory authority to regularise question wording and sample design, far from increasing the accuracy of polling, has the potential to compound the problem further. All scientific inquiry relies on a cycle of experiment, evaluation and modulation. Polling firms ought to be encouraged to experiment with novel methods and trial their own question wording and sample design, rather than being prevented from doing so. It is also in their commercial interests to try to out-compete their rivals and develop more accurate methods, and we ought to cheer them on as they do so.
With regard to a ban on publication of opinion polls before elections, we should remember that it is voters, not polls, which change election outcomes. A ban would not prevent such polls from being conducted; rather, it would lead to a small number of wealthy individuals and organisations being the only ones with privileged information, leaving the wider public at a disadvantage. Even if we wished to deny voters access to this type of information, in the 21st century it would be impossible to do so. The internet makes a mockery of enforced censorship. We could try to emulate the practice of North Korea and prevent our own citizens having information which is so freely available throughout the rest of the world, but it simply would not work. Political bloggers such as Guido Fawkes use servers in countries such as Ireland and the United States which the Government could not block even if they wished to. British voters would therefore be left open to the unchecked rumours and misinformation that would result from such a ban.
The idea of a voluntary agreement not to publish is interesting, but I suspect that it would ultimately be doomed to fail. The question of who enters into the agreement is fundamental. Even if all the established members of the British Polling Council agreed not to publish polling in the final week before an election, it would not prevent new entrants and overseas pollsters doing so.
The polling industry may be licking its wounds but I do not doubt its integrity in seeking honest answers from the post-election inquiry. We must be able to hear the results of that and understand what went wrong before leaping for the statute book. We are privileged in this country to have a polling profession which, through the good offices of self-regulatory bodies such the British Polling Council, is clearly committed to transparency. That is quite a rarity. In the United States, for example, voters have access to a far poorer quality and quantity of information about individual polls. The industry here ought to be commended for its transparency. Our role should be to recognise and encourage that and to find ways of enabling more and greater competition to encourage greater accuracy.
I am concerned about what has been said about the ComRes polling for the charity CARE in relation to the proposed three-parent, pronuclear and maternal spindle transfer techniques. In addressing this subject I should declare an interest: I have worked closely with CARE over the years. It has provided me with invaluable assistance, especially in relation to my human trafficking Bill. Criticism of this polling seems to hang very much on a report commissioned by the Wellcome Trust—one of the principal advocates for changing the law to permit the controversial procedures—to critique some of the polling in question. That report is deeply flawed in four respects.
First, and most importantly, the report criticises the polling against benchmarks that would be appropriate only if a deliberative public consultation was being discussed, in which lots of background information could be provided. Both more deliberative public consultation exercises and polling have their place and their respective strengths and weaknesses, but to critique one against the standards of the other is to make a very basic blunder. While deliberative public consultations can contain lots of information and nuance, and can in turn receive lots of information and nuance, polls cannot do so. The questions have to be relatively short, and as long as they can provide a range of responses other than simple yes or no answers, the responses are predetermined.
The CARE poll questions were designed very obviously to measure public opinion on pronuclear and maternal spindle transfer as these were defined in common parlance by the media, which spoke almost universally about “three-parent embryos” and “three-parent children”. Far from it being inappropriate to design questions reflecting that terminology, it would have been illogical and poor research practice not to do so. Moreover, as a matter of scientific fact, the designations “three-parent children” or “three-parent embryos”, while disliked by some, were not inaccurate, in that the resulting children will have DNA from three rather than two parents.
The aim of the questions has also been misrepresented. Their aim was first to track basic attitudes in response to the information gleaned by the public through the media, and, secondly, to test responses to a range of arguments both in favour of and against permitting the procedure. This is basic standard practice in any campaign. The purpose of testing arguments in favour of the procedure is to understand which of one’s opponent’s arguments are the strongest and which are the weakest. The purpose of testing arguments against the procedure is to recognise which arguments are the strongest for CARE itself to deploy. Publishing all the results was not an attempt to distort public discourse but rather to ensure that CARE and ComRes were compliant with the British Polling Council requirement for full transparency.
Secondly, the report objected to the polling on the basis that it had been commissioned by an organisation opposed to the introduction of PNT and MST. I found that rather odd. Most polls are commissioned by organisations that want to test public opinion to see whether it fits with their own position. To suggest that this is somehow inappropriate is to misunderstand polling completely. Indeed, the point has been made that the report commissioned by the Wellcome Trust has been commissioned by a body with a very clear agenda. The irony of its position, however, does not seem to have occurred to it. None of us approaches these things from a position of value neutrality. For the record, as a doctor, I am very much opposed to the use of pronuclear transfer but am more open to the use of maternal spindle transfer. Thirdly, the report seeks to criticise the polling on the basis of an assessment of the press coverage secured, which is entirely irrelevant to the efficacy of the polling in question. Fourthly, the report lays great stress on stakeholder interviews but is entirely lacking in transparency. Parliament has looked at these matters and decided what it has to do.
In conclusion, I state that ComRes did not threaten to sue the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, but the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, pointed out to it that he intended to have a debate in your Lordships’ House, which would, of course, be privileged.
My Lords, I want to look at opinion poll industry regulation in a general way, rather than focusing on a particular case, as the noble Lords, Lord Lipsey and Lord McColl, have done.
In the spirit of the Motion I am going to offer an opinion. My first point is about opinion itself. Opinion is, by definition, fragile and changeable. It is lite—that is L-I-T-E, for Hansard—and that is very different from attitudes and prejudices, which are firm and more long-standing. We live in a time of opinion, when people just tweet things without much thought—bang, out goes the view. Very few people now are paid-up members of political parties, unions or churches because they want to live in a freer world of opinion, not of attitudes and prejudices. That means that politicians and churches, but also pollsters, have to work a lot harder at trying to capture what is in our minds, because we live in this world of opinion. It means that opinion polls are inherently inadequate in giving an objective view, because they are not dealing with objective elements in people’s minds. We have to be very careful in trying to regulate something that we cannot control or weigh the expectations of very easily.
I want to look at the 2015 election, which seems to have raised a lot of questions about the polling industry. This illustrates my point about the nature of opinion and how fragile and shifting it always is. I invite noble Lords to think about the difference between being asked to answer a set series of questions and going into a particular context—a booth in a polling station—for a private moment of making a decision with a pencil and a piece of paper. They are very different moments of the mind, of engagement, of thoughtfulness. The attempt to correlate them by the opinion poll industry will therefore always be rough and inexact. We have to be careful about comparing and assuming a necessary correlation between the views expressed when there is a set series of questions and voting and acting privately in a particular moment.
Like religion, politics requires an extended conversation that helps opinion find its place in a bigger scenario. That is why good politics, like good religion, works through conversation. In theology, when we try to interpret the word or words, we practise what we call hermeneutics. Some of your Lordships will know that Hermes was the Greek messenger god—the god of travellers, because there is movement, and also the god of thieves, because there is sometimes destruction and disruption. Real meaning and values in human life come from conversation that is extended, set out and developed, and within which people have opinions. We are influenced by forces that are not easily measurable by one set of answers in any one moment, because we are influenced by our intuitions, feelings, hopes and fears. Those things do not fit into a person’s predetermined set of questions captured in a moment, which we have to answer in a way that is measurable alongside the answers of others. The material that the pollsters are dealing with is inherently unstable, developing and very difficult to capture.
Therefore, it was rather inaccurate when one of the commentators said that,
“the 2015 election was a collective failure for the British polling industry”.
It is enormously self-indulgent to think that. The 2015 national election and the difference from the polling industry was not a collective failure of the British polling industry. It was a victory for voters, free speech and free thinking, and for having the opportunity to be free and to make a decision in a moment that counts, and not being held to account by a predetermined set of questions that some pressure group or interested party has asked the voter to engage with—as the noble Lords, Lord Lipsey and Lord McColl, said—for their own advantage and benefit rather than for what the political process is all about. Sometimes we need to wait for freedom to be expressed and to emerge. We cannot capture it when it suits a particular group at a particular moment for a particular set of phone calls.
My opinion is that we should let the polling industry do its best. I would categorise it more in the realm of entertainment than science. It is helpful, people enjoy it and it is useful but we need a sense of proportion. I think it will always be a sideshow to how freedom operates and human beings coming to a mind and collectively expressing that.
My Lords, like the right reverend Prelate, I will keep more to the May election. ComRes has been mentioned quite a lot and I read just after the election that it said that it had had been a,
“difficult few days for pollsters”.
They should have tried being in the Labour Party. The nub of the problem is that the pollsters got it wrong, as in 1992 when I experienced the same 10 o’clock shock. I was sitting alongside the then deputy leader of the Labour Party, Roy Hattersley, whose minder I was at the time. I had anticipated him being Home Secretary within a few hours. So I am a bit bitten by this.
While 1992 and 2015 may have been bad for business for the pollsters, it raises bigger issues for the country and for those seeking to run it if the publication of misleading polls alters voting behaviour. Of course, in moments of loss such as I and my noble friend went through that night, we activists feel that blow, and we are reminded of course of Bertolt Brecht’s “Die Lösung”:
“Nach dem Aufstand des 17 Juni”.
Yesterday, therefore, was the anniversary of when the country,
“Had forfeited the confidence of the government”,
making the solution,
“for the government to dissolve the people and elect another”.
The temptation to do that on 7 May was great.
However, the more serious question posed by my noble friend Lord Lipsey is serious, albeit that he has concentrated on a different variety of polling: namely, that commissioned by or for a particular campaign, often with loaded questions. He is, of course, one of the most experienced in the field, having studied, used, commissioned, interpreted and reported on polls since I first worked alongside him in 1970.
The problem we discuss today is an old one: whether our reliance on soothsayers and fortune tellers, or indeed bookies, can affect our actions or policies. Pollsters are not soothsayers, but because of the role that they play in how we as politicians frame our campaigning and even our policies, and in how voters choose to vote, there is a special responsibility on them to raise their game, as there is on the media that report them.
My noble friend brilliantly covered the traps and shortcomings of some polling. While we acknowledge that the polls have often been accurate, today’s debate is about where the sampling, the methodology or the questions failed the industry and the body politic. I would worry about any pre-approving of sampling or other methods, as this could stifle innovation and lead to even more clustering or huddling. I also cannot see that there can be acceptable or, perhaps more importantly, unacceptable questions. However, there is some urgency to improving the industry, especially before we face the first recall ballot for an MP, where, in a single constituency, a vote to trigger a by-election could be heavily influenced by some local—and possibly shoddy or loaded—polling.
However, I wonder whether the industry has the appetite to do more itself. Has enough yet happened in the way of peer reviewing its academic approach in order to raise standards or to guard against the drive for cheap, headline-grabbing polling, undertaken for commercial rather than democratic gain? As my noble friend suggested, I do not perhaps share his faith in the ASA model, but I share with him the desire for improvement and for the industry to take a long, hard look at how it produced its figures.
However, that is only part of the story. As the right reverend Prelate suggested, we also have to look at how polls are reported, not only by newspapers but by radio and TV, which sadly too often take their agenda from the papers and can make the poll a lead story rather than background intelligence. We should also look at how this translates on the doorstep. Part of my own shock at the 10 pm exit poll came from the fact that I had mostly been campaigning in London, where my own experience pretty closely reflected that of the published polls and therefore gave me too much confidence that they were right elsewhere. I would be interested to hear from experienced campaigners outside London whether their feel was different from the published polls and whether voters’ responses appeared influenced by their expectation of the outcome.
The opinion poll inquiry has, I think, been called comprehensive. Sadly, I do not find that. It is very UK-focused, as if we have nothing to learn from elsewhere, and also misses the input of candidates and campaigners; and indeed of journalists, who may have tales to tell of how they were given the data—exactly when, how close to when they had to use them and with what spin. There is also the question of the degree to which news reporting and the polling were so intertwined that there was no independent review between one activity and the other. As the noble Lord, Lord McColl, noted, the inquiry will be holding a public meeting tomorrow afternoon, I think at the Royal Statistical Society. I hope that some of those wider questions can be posed there.
The issues raised today are important—perhaps too important to be left to pollsters. I congratulate my noble friend Lord Lipsey on initiating the debate and on sharing his considerable expertise. I look forward to the thoughts of the Minister, who—I told the House this last week but some noble Lords may not have been there to hear it—placed a bet 12 months ago on a Conservative majority of 12. Perhaps we should just replace the pollsters with the Minister.
I am very grateful to the noble Baroness for that introduction. Sadly, no one has come to me asking for my services, although my son keeps asking me to partake in the National Lottery each week, as he is sure I can win. I also congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, on securing this debate and am very grateful for the other contributions, which were very interesting. Indeed, this has been a very thoughtful debate, although a short one. I am delighted that we have risen above the sterile argument about regulation, good or bad, although I will touch on that.
The noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, has, as the noble Baroness said, extensive experience of polling and psephology, and I certainly cannot claim to rival that. However, he and I do share the honour—I think I am right on this—and probably the scars of having worked in the back rooms of Downing Street, only to be handed our P45s by the British people. My noble friend Lord McColl and I were there in 1997, so we all know what it is like—this could turn into a bit of a group therapy session—when you are desperately hoping that the polls are wrong but they turn out to be right; or, as in this case, not quite so right.
It strikes me that the noble Lord’s speech in this debate has focused on one particular aspect of opinion polling—the methodology—and in particular those polls that are deliberately designed to get the answers wanted by those who commission them. I do not want to get too much into the details around the ComRes issue; if your Lordships do not mind I would rather rise above that and just talk about broad issues.
Let me start by putting the noble Lord’s mind completely at rest by saying that this Government have indeed no plans to regulate opinion polls. I am delighted that there has been an outbreak of consensus on this point. Many of your Lordships would agree that statutory regulation is not the answer to the issue that we are concerned about: accurate opinion polling. There is widespread agreement that opinion polls lubricate political debate. They help to get that debate moving and to air views, and regulation of any form of opinion polling would put us on a slippery slope towards an unwanted intervention in free debate, benefiting only those with deep pockets who could afford their own polls, as my noble friend Lord McColl so rightly said.
Touching on a few of the points that I think we will discuss in tomorrow’s debate on the same issue, the power that a regulator would yield would be entirely disproportionate. It would end up sanctioning research which could then be portrayed as the official point of view. I have no idea how this would work during a general election. Would it be banned? Would the regulator be asked to adjudicate on which questions were permitted, the methodology and so on? Also, what is the scope of this regulator? While those of us within the bubble of Westminster are fixated on political polls, as I am sure your Lordships are aware the vast majority of pollsters’ business is with commercial entities who want to test what consumers think. Just think about this—you would have a cat food television advertisement that would read, “Nine out of 10 say their cats prefer it, as certified by the Consumer Research Authority, Cracom”, or words to that effect. That would be disastrous and a slippery slope. It would be unwanted regulation of business and bad for democracy. Is this necessary? I think not—but no doubt someone can produce an opinion poll to show whether it is.
As regards innovation, a number of your Lordships picked up on what I think is a key point. Regulation would threaten the debate and innovation on which polling depends. Polling is similar to that most dismal of sciences, economics. It was famously asked of the economics profession why it did not see the crash coming. Yet despite this collective failure, no one has yet called for statutory regulation of economists—not that I want to put ideas in your Lordships’ heads. This is because we understand that the technical problems inherent in economic forecasting cannot simply be regulated away. We know that improvement will only come through intensive research, open debate and rethinking of old assumptions. I would argue that it is just the same with the science of public opinion polling—a point that the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Derby spoke eloquently about.
As the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, well knows, this science is a far more complex business than simply phoning up random members of the public and asking what they think. Samples have to be weighted and there is no consensus about the best way to do this, obviously. Surveys have to take account of cognitive bias, and methodologies are constantly being tinkered with and adjusted. Indeed, there is a certain amount of competitive edge that companies have within that. I was particularly struck by the right reverend Prelate saying that asking someone how will they would vote days before a general election can have some bearing on how they actually behave when they enter the polling booth—picking up that little stubby pencil, their hand hovering over the box and then saying, “Actually, I am going to put my cross here”. To compare those two thoughts and those two reactions to the question is very difficult, and this is exactly what I hope the Sturgis inquiry into the last election is going to get to.
This brings me to the question of conflicting polls—one poll suggesting the public support something and another poll suggesting they oppose it. My response is, as a number of your Lordships have been saying, let us interrogate the methodology and debate the issue further, and then let the public decide. This, I would argue, is what freedom of speech and expression is all about. I strongly believe that the public—aided by a free press and vigorous debate in Parliament and elsewhere—can smell a dodgy poll. As the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, said himself, the poll he is concerned about seemed to receive very scant coverage or mention in your Lordships’ House during the debate.
If people discover that a poll is dodgy, there are means of making complaints, as the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, is now following. However, I would further argue that just as frightening from the pollsters’ perspective is the route that ends by being placed in the stocks of public opinion, and the shame of one’s work being lampooned and castigated by the public. Having read the weighty analysis of the poll on the parent embryo survey and what has been said about it, my strong sense is that this remains perhaps the best route to address the noble Lord’s concerns, despite what he says. It is not for me to say whether the self-regulatory bodies should do more, but if I were in their shoes I am sure that, in light of this debate and others about polling, I would want to take note of what the noble Lord is saying.
This brings me to self-regulation. I declare that in the private sector I did not just place bets, as the noble Baroness predicted, on what I thought a company might or might not do; I actually commissioned a number of opinion polls from reputable companies on issues that were of relevance to private companies. In my experience, great care was taken by pollsters to ensure that no question was seen to be leading or partial. Any suggestion from me or anyone else in the organisation I was representing that a question was, and it would be rejected and changed.
I endorse the comment of the noble Lord that the vast majority of opinion-polling companies abide by the rules and standards of the Market Research Society and the British Polling Council. One has to ask why these companies do so. It is clear that there is a simple reason: it is in their interests to ensure that their research observes the letter and, crucially, the spirit of the code of practice, and that they are seen to be asking balanced questions and presenting answers in an impartial way. Only then does their research command the respect of politicians, the media and, in turn, the public.
Furthermore, the industry fully understands that transparency and trust go hand in hand. Members of the British Polling Council must already publish their results in full, with the questions exactly as asked, a description of the sampling methodology, the raw unweighted data and, crucially, the name of the client commissioning the survey.
On the specific point the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, has been addressing about the assembling of the questionnaires themselves, if he or anyone else who is interested cannot sleep at night they might to turn to the MRS’s guidelines for questionnaire design. It is a nice, weighty document of about 28 pages, which states:
“Members must take reasonable steps to ensure … that participants”—
that is, those who opinion pollsters are polling—
“are not led towards a particular point of view”.
This applies to the objectives of the research, and to structuring and writing questionnaires. I am sure these guidelines will be taken into account in considering the issue the noble Lord raised; as he himself said, let us see what happens.
Moving on, all this shows that like any other business or service, the polling industry’s prosperity is built on trust. If opinion polls are to be taken seriously, people—be they the public, journalists or your Lordships—must trust them. If opinion polls become a laughing stock, pollsters go out of business. Why would anyone commission research if they feel they cannot trust the results? This is why, as my noble friend Lord McColl and other noble Lords have mentioned, the polling industry is undertaking such a thorough investigation of what happened at the general election. It is in not just our interests but its own that it does this. It is just as concerned as everyone else to get to the nub of what went wrong. As has been mentioned, the inquiry’s first evidence session is tomorrow.
To my mind this is the right response to a poll failure—a transparent review of what went wrong, followed by innovation and experimentation. The methodology has to be, and be seen to be, robust so we all await the result of this autopsy with interest. I trust that the noble Lord will make his voice heard in this inquiry, and that it will be heeded. Furthermore, the noble Baroness made a number of interesting points about the inquiry taking on board experience from other countries.
Government regulation certainly would not solve many of the issues relating to methodology that the noble Lord mentioned. Regulating the industry would simply centralise the debate and decision-making process, with no guarantee that the challenges surrounding sample size, questions and so on would be overcome. A statutory regulator would be too slow and unwieldy to respond to the innovation and change brought about by big data, cognitive psychology and the digital revolution. Indeed, it would be an analogue solution in a digital age. Crucially, such regulation could—and in my view definitely would—stifle the very debate that opinion polls seek to inform. That is why government regulation is the wrong answer to the right question—a question about conduct and methodology. It is a question that the noble Lord has every right to highlight, and the existing self-regulatory bodies have every reason to heed. The Government do not plan to regulate the opinion polling industry. As Walter Bagehot wrote, and I am sure the noble Lord will say:
“The place of nearly everybody depends on the opinion of everyone else”.
Whether the decision not to regulate will have an impact on the place of government, I am not sure; I suspect we would need an opinion poll to find that out.


text:
Book Signing for Stroke Survivor: a Story of Hope
Don & Rosella Kvernen have lived with the aftermath of Don’s devastating stroke for over 22 years. They wrote “Stroke Survivor: a Story of Hope” to encourage other survivors and families living with stroke or TBI that there is life that can have purpose and joy even after tragedy. They share their struggles but also tell what has helped them cope and given them hope. See StrokeSurvivor-StoryofHope.com to read excerpts of the book.
Saturday, 20 April, 2013
12:00 PM - 03:00 PM

domain: literature


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domain: hobby


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You are viewing
Thousand Oaks CA Blues Brothers Tributes
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domain: artistic


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domain: health


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Serum made from the blood of recovered Ebola patients could be available within weeks in Liberia, one of the countries worst hit by the virus, says the World Health Organization.
Speaking in Geneva, Dr Marie Paule Kieny said work was also advancing quickly to get drugs and a vaccine ready for January 2015.
The Ebola outbreak has already killed more than 4,500 people.
Most of the deaths have been in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Dr Kieny, WHO assistant director general for health system and innovation, said: "There are partnerships which are starting to be put in place to have capacity in the three countries to safely extract plasma and make preparation that can be used for the treatment of infective patients.
"The partnership which is moving the quickest will be in Liberia where we hope that in the coming weeks there will be facilities set up to collect the blood, treat the blood and be able to process it for use."
It is still unclear how much will become available and whether it could meet demand.
In other developments:
- NBC freelance cameraman Ashoka Mukpo - who contracted Ebola in West Africa - is declared free of the virus and will leave hospital in the US state of Nebraska
- Riots break out in Sierra Leone's diamond-rich Kono district after angry youths resisted efforts to "quarantine" a house where a 90-year-old woman suspected to have Ebola lived. The youths were said to be angry because there were no treatment centres in Kono, the BBC's Umaru Fofana says. Police imposed a daytime curfew in the area
- UK International Development Secretary Justine Greening visits Sierra Leone to assess the impact of the government's $200m (£125m) aid package
- The US Homeland Security Department says all visitors arriving from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will undergo enhanced screening at one of five airports
- The Dominican Republic joins a group of Caribbean countries that have banned visitors from the three West African nations
If a person has successfully fought off the infection, it means their body has learned how to combat the virus and they will have antibodies in their blood that can attack Ebola.
Doctors can then take a sample of their blood and turn it into serum - by removing the red blood cells but keeping the important antibodies - which can be used to treat other patients.
Alexander Kollie's story:
I was able to see my son in the care centre from across the fence, so I called out to him: "Son, you're the only hope I got. You have to take courage. Any medicine they give to you, you have to take it."
He told me: "Papa, I understand. I will do it. Stop crying Papa. My sisters are gone but I am going to survive and I will make you proud."
Every day, the counsellors made sure they saw me, and they sat with me so I could talk.
The Spanish nurse who became the first person to contract Ebola outside West Africa tested negative for the virus after reportedly receiving human serum containing antibodies from Ebola survivors.
Dr Kieny said the treatment was not without risks, and WHO has already issued guidelines to ensure safety. Any donor blood will need to be screened for infections such a hepatitis and HIV, for example.
Vaccines and drugs
She said trials of two possible Ebola vaccines could produce initial results by the end of the year.
- Avoid direct contact with sick patients as the virus is spread through contaminated body fluids
- Wear protective cover for eyes
- Clothing and clinical waste should be incinerated and any medical equipment that needs to be kept should be decontaminated
- People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months
The vaccines will be tested first to see if they are safe for humans, and if they can protect people from the Ebola virus.
Once these questions have been answered, the WHO hopes to extend the trials to a much wider group of people and start giving it to Africa.
"These trials will all start in the coming two weeks... and continue for six months to a year but to have initial results about safety and immunogenicity to have a choice of a dose level by the end of this year in December."
Dr Kieny said there were a number of drugs being tested and developed in different countries.
A partnership between Oxford University and the Wellcome Trust is now visiting sites in the three affected African countries to identify which treatment centres would be adequate and willing to start testing drugs soon, she said.
Ebola virus disease (EVD)
- Symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous system damage
- Spread by body fluids, such as blood and saliva
- Fatality rate can reach 90% - but current outbreak has mortality rate of about 70%
- Incubation period is two to 21 days
- There is no proven vaccine or cure
- Supportive care such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhoea and vomiting can help recovery
- Fruit bats, a delicacy for some West Africans, are considered to be virus's natural host

domain: news


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Title:Â Hemophiliac Lifespans Grow
By:Â Ellen Hale
Source: Gannett News Service
New medical advances are letting people with hemophilia live longer and better than ever before, researchers say.
But the success with the “bleeder’s disease” has brought on new problems few of them foresaw.
Suddenly, they are finding they must treat not only the disease, but also the social complications that go along with having such a crippling illness. Things like sexual hangups, personality problems, and even suicide.
Suicide, in fact, is the most common cause of death among adolescents who suffer from hemophilia, a hereditary disease in which a person’s blood lacks the ingredients to make it clot, according to Dr. James J. Corrigan, a blood specialist with the University of Arizona, where he is director of the new Mountain States Hemophilia Center.
The center recently played host to a national conference on hemophilia, and one of the major topics for discussion was the treatment ofÂ Â the very serious social problems hemophiliacs suffer.
“There’s a new burden on the health professional,” said Dr. Steven Levine, a sex counseling expert from Case Western Reserve School of Medicine in Ohio. “Now we aren’t just expected to assure the maximum health of the person, but to help maximize his sexual potential.”
And the simple fact that a person suffers from a chronic illness probably predisposes him to chronic sexual or social problems, said Levine, who has no figures to cite but suspects that the incidence of sexual dysfunction, transsexualism and impotence is much higher in hemophiliacs than in healthy, normal men.
And those who do are destined to lives which, in many ways, just cannot be normal. Because families may get overprotective and because the hemophiliac himself finds he cannot compete in many typically male activities, often he develops what experts call a passive dependent personality.
Doctors and other health professionals are now realizing they must treat these problems as well as the medical one. Corrigan recommends that some of his patients participate in sports like swimming, and many are competitive, award-winning swimmers, he said.
In addition, health professionals are now beginning to offer sex guidance and aid, recognizing that sexual problems may be one of the most crucial a hemophiliac faces.
*Article courtesyÂ of Barry HaardeÂ ____________________________________________________
Title: Precipitate from Cold-thawed Plasma Potent in Therapy for Hemophiliacs
Date:Â AugustÂ 23,Â 1965
Source: Journal of the American Medical Association
Use of a precipitate from coldthawed plasma-until recently thought to be valueless-may solve several major problems inherent in conventional therapy for hemophiliacs.
Judith G. Pool, PhD, Stanford University Medical Center, is the investigator who first found-almost by accident-that the threadlike substance precipitated during standard cold-thawing of plasma contains concentrated antihemophilic globulin (AHG).
Recently, Dr. Pool reported a simple technique for extracting this protein fraction. Since then, clinicians at Stanford Medical Center have used the precipitate in solution to infuse 14 patients more than 60 times. There were no apparent side effects.
Dr. Pool, a physiologist, described toÂ The JournalÂ these advantages of the concentrate:
- In vivo assay indicates the crycoprecipitate is 30 times as potent in AHG activity per given weight of protein as fresh frozen plasma, the conventional therapy, and 20 times that of normal fresh plasma.
- Since the precipitate can be dissolved in small amounts of citrated saline solution, more AHG activity can be delivered to the patient without risk of overloading his circulation. Moreover, this reduces infusion time from hours to minutes.
- Because cryoprecipitate is prepared in single units and can be administered on a type specific basis, many complications caused by isoantibodies in mixed pools of plasma and the risk of hepatitis are reduced.
- The precipitate is available at small cost in blood replacement or service charges, depending on the local blood bank.
- The concentrate is extracted within a sterile system of two or three plastic bags which is available in all blood banks. The blood from which the precipitate is taken can be reconstituted as “whole” blood and used for any appropriate patient except the classic hemophiliac.
“This makes the AHG-rich concentrate- which traps 70% of the plasma unit’s AHG – a by-product of blood banking,” Dr. Pool said.
To illustrate clinical usefulness, Dr. Pool described the conventional frozen plasma therapy for severely bleeding adult hemophiliac compared to that with cryoprecipitate solution.
The AHG level in such a patient is less than 1% of normal. To raise the patient’s AHG level to a desired 50% of normal would require approximately 6 units or 1,600 ml of plasma.Â (Frozen plasma contains an average of 65% of AHG in fresh plasma.)
Infusion would take two hours or more; and the patient might not be able to tolerate this increase in circulatory volume.
In contrast, to obtain the same AHG level of 50%, only 55 ml or lass of the concentrated solution is needed. Infusion takes at most 5 minutes.
“AHG concentration of the solution averages about 2,000%,” Dr. Pool said. “Thus it is about 30 times as potent as the frozen plasma on an equal protein basis. Since the total infusion volume is reduced to 1/30 that of plasma, there is no danger of overload.” Moreover, “the patient gets this highly concentrated AHG source at a considerably lower cost per unit AHG activity than with the two commercial products, or fresh frozen plasma,” she said.
No Additional Factor
The investigator stressed that classic hemophilia is apparently the only coagulation deficiency for which the new concentrate is therapeutically valuable. Except for fibrinogen, there is no concentration of factor other than AHG. Work leading to clinical use of the cryoprecipitate began in 1959…
Title: Home Treatment Eases Burden of HemophiliaÂ
By: Joseph L. Lincoln Of The Bulletin Staff
Source: Philadelphia Bulletin
It was a happy Thanksgiving in 1963 for the family of Mark Warriner, until Mark fell off his grandfather’s lap. Mark, then not quite a year old, hit his gum against a table and started bleeding. He kept bleeding for a week.
Mrs. Fred Warringer, of 569 ½ Rosalie [S]t., took her son to several doctors and received the diagnosis. It was hemophilia, an hereditary disease in which blood fails to clot normally.
Frequent Hospital Visits
For several years the Warriners had to take Mark to the hospital for treatment whenever he had a bleeding incident.
Cuts weren’t the only problem. Bruises of the joints, especially the knees and ankles, often unnoticed in other people, cause painful swelling for Mark and, if left untreated, can cripple him.
At first, he was treated with transfusions of whole plasma, then with cryo-precipitates and anti-hemophilic factor, extracts of plasma that can be given by injection.
Home Therapy Possible
The injection treatments, according to Dr. Irving Wolman, consulting hematologist at Children’s Hospital, enable Mark to go on a home treatment program. His mother, trained at Children’s Hospital, gives him the shots.
“When he was smaller, he spent more time in the hospital than at home,” Mrs. Warringer said.
Now at 8, Mark is a third-grade pupil at Benjamin Franklin School, Rising Sun and Cheltenham [A]ves. He’s not allowed to play baseball or football, but he does swim.
First Family Vacation
Last summer, because Mrs. Warringer was able to treat him, the family took its first vacation, traveling to Williamsburg, Va. and Myrtle Beach, S. C.
“Now he’s old enough to be able to tell me when he has a problem,” Mrs. Warriner said. “When he was younger, he was afraid to tell because he got a needle and it hurt.”
When he is older, Mark should be able to treat himself, Dr. Wolman said.
$35 a Shot
The injections are costly, about $35 a shot, although some of Mark’s are covered by insurance. Mark receives the injections as needed, about one a week. Some hemophiliacs, however, may need as many as six or eight of the shots at one time, costing several hundred dollars. “It’s a misconception that the hemophiliac is like a sponge -that you nick the sponge and blood will come out. Many actually go months without trouble,” the doctor said.
“With sufficient funds, we can give boys like Mark Warriner a chance for a brighter future, free from the pain, crippling and hospitalization that accompanies this disease,” he said.
The hemophilia campaign begins next month.
*Article courtesyÂ of Barry Haarde
Title:Â Burton Heads Hemophilia DriveÂ
Date:Â June 18 1964
Source:Â The Deseret News
A fund drive in the name of Richard Burton to benefit hemophilia victims was launched yesterday with Burton’s wife, actress Elizabeth Taylor as chairman.Â
At a news conference announce the drive, Burton acknowledged he has had “slight hemophilia all my life.”
Hemophilia is a disease characterized by slow blood clotting and excessive bleeding even from superficial injuries.
A tooth extraction may necessitate as many as 100 blood transfusions and an operation may result in 1,000, the Hemophilia Foundation said.
In addition to helping victims of hemophilia, said to number 100,000 in the United States, the “Richard Burton Hemophilia Fund” also will help finance medical research aimed at eradicating the disease.
With Burton and Miss Taylor at the news conference was Charles Gerard Bugbee, 8, a hemophilia sufferer who was reported to have undergone 400 blood transfusions.
February 6, 1968
Dear Mrs. Haarde:
When I see the date at the top of this letter, I hang my head in shame. Ir has been so long since we received your generous gift and the lovely picture of your family. Thank you so much for both!
The concentrate program has developed into a research project. You, or your physician, could write an application for participation in the study. You would– or your doctor would, receive an allottment [sic] of the AHF and a record would be kept of its use and its results.
The application should come to me at this office, because we are to be responsible for the 3,000 units of fraction made available in exchange for our $10,000 research grant. We must keep the record, too, which will eliminate a lot of work for the hospital and Dr. Djerassi.
If, however, one of the boys has a serious difficulty your doctor may call for some of the fraction on an emergency basis. De. Djerassi would like several boys to participate in the study and if your two have a lot of trouble, you may think it worth your while to do so.
Meantime, we are able to get the dry Courtland Concentrate for $25.00 a unit. If you would like to stock some of that, I could have it sent directly to Woodbridge in lots of ten units or more. Some types of Insurance cover this as a drug, but Blue Cross only pays for it when it is part of the regular hospital treatment. It is all terribly involved and I pray for the day wehn we can pay for it– or at least pay for part of it.
With the hope that this is going to be a good year for the Haardes, and with warmest regards.


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Check out the OSU Extension Master Gardener Map and see what projects your local Master Gardeners are working on!
The Polk County Master Gardeners are available to answer your questions in the office or over the phone every Tuesday and Thursday from 9 AM to 12 NOON.
289 E. Ellendale, Suite 301
Check out the links on the right side of this page for more information about the Polk County Master Gardener program.
Helpful Gardening Links


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The Docomomo US/North Texas Chapter represents a diverse group of professionals and public whose concern is the protection, interpretation and appreciation of the unique manifestations of the Modern Movement within the region. Works by such nationally-recognized architects as William Lescaze, Harrison & Abramovitz, Paul P. Cret, Richard Neutra, F.L. Wright, H.H. Harris, E.L. Barnes, Philip Johnson, Skidmore, Owings and Merrill, Louis Kahn, I.M. Pei and Paul Rudolph exist in number within the chapter’s boundaries. In addition, such regional modernists as O’Neil Ford, George Dahl, Howard Meyer, Wyatt Hedrick, Bud Oglesby and many others developed intriguing architectural sensibilities within the context.
Docomomo US/WEWA is a local community of individuals who share a passion for Northwest Modernism. Founded in Seattle in 1998 as a chapter of Docomomo US, we are dedicated to the Documentation and Conservation of the Modern Movement in Western Washington. As a non-profit, 501c(3) organization, we organize tours and events, and advocate for the preservation of Modern resources. Our mission is to increase public awareness and appreciation of Modern design throughout the region. The organization is administered by an all-volunteer, seven-member Board made up of architects, planners, preservationists, architectural historians, and real estate professionals.
Chapter website: docomomo-ga.weebly.com/
To insure that its rich architectural legacy is preserved for generations to come, Docomomo US/Midwest Chapter raises the awareness and appreciation of modern architecture in Chicago and environs through lectures, meetings, walking tours and site visits. After the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, architects like William LeBaron Jenny, Daniel Burnham, John Wellborn Root and Louis Sullivan flocked to Chicago to help rebuild the decimated city. The high-rise buildings that rose from the ashes redefined the architecture of the late 19th and early 20th century. They shed classical forms and heavy ornamentation in favor of structural expression. This spirit of innovation was tempered by the onset of the Great Depression and World War II, which brought a virtual halt to new construction.
Docomomo US/Northern California Chapter is raising the awareness of the Modern Movement's rich legacy in the Bay Area and throughout Northern California. The gentle California climate allowed Modern buildings to achieve a response to the outdoors that was not possible in European or East Coast climates. This produced not only a uniquely Modern plan, but a Modern approach to landscape design.
Docomomo US/New York Tri-State was organized in 1995 and was directly involved in the formation of the national organization. Since that time, Docomomo's network of volunteers comprised of architects, historians, and preservationists has organized numerous exhibits, tours, and educational events relating to modern architecture and sites. The region boasts a rich array of modern buildings representing diverse building types and styles from corporate icons such as Lever House and the Seagrams Building, to town houses and suburban homes by leading modern architects and designers of the period.
Above: Members of the Docomomo US/New England Chapter, Tour Day 2012, at Josep Lluis Sert's Peabody Terrace, Cambridge, MA


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|Tibetan Plateau / Sounds of the Mothership|
Celestial Harmonies 17013 (CD)
This CD brings together selections from David Parsons' early recordings, TIBETAN PLATEAU and SOUNDS OF THE MOTHERSHIP. The collection includes eight compositions that evoke the sounds of remote, deep space through the soaring voices of Parsons' synthesizers in combination with classical Indian instruments. Inspired by the ancient Vedic songs of India, Parson's music lies at the well-springs of consciousness, tempered by soothing sounds from the physical world: the soft chirping of crickets, the calls of songbirds, and the restless sounds of the four winds. The music serves as a centering point for the mind amid the swirling vortex of the temporal plane.


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UK trails Poland and Bulgaria on adults educated to A-level standard
Lecturers\’ union says European data shows Britain risks languishing in \’mid-table obscurity\’ due to rising cost of learning
We should therefore reduce the cost of learning by paying lecturers less and having fewer of them.
There, job done.
Not quite what I\’d expect the lecturer\’s union to suggest but…..

domain: geography


text:
Patient data ownership: who owns your health?
Liddell K., Simon DA., Lucassen A.
This article answers two questions from the perspective of United Kingdom law and policy: (i) is health information property? and (ii) should it be? We argue that special features of health information make it unsuitable for conferral of property rights without an extensive system of data-specific rules, like those that govern intellectual property. Additionally, we argue that even if an extensive set of rules were developed, the advantages of a property framework to govern health information would be slight: propertization is unlikely to enhance patient self-determination, increase market efficiency, provide patients a foothold in the data economy, clarify legal uses of information, or encourage data-driven innovation. The better approach is to rely less, not more, on property. We recommend a regulatory model with four signature features: (i) substantial protection for personal health data similar to the GDPR with transparent limits on how, when, and by whom patient data can be accessed, used, and transmitted; (ii) input from relevant stakeholders; (iii) interoperability; and (iv) greater research into a health-data service, rather than goods, model.


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For this week's Top Ten Tuesday Rewind, I'm choosing Books I wish I read as a kid and/or teen. Throughout the past two years of library school, I've come across so many books that I know I would have loved when I was younger.
Top Ten Books I wish I Read as a Kid/Teen
1) The Perks of Being a Wallflower, by Stephen Chbosky
The antisocial/wallflower high schooler that I was would have adored this novel. The ending twist still surprises me when I reread the novel; if you haven't read it yet, definitely check it out before you see the movie. I actually can't wait for it to come out later this year. Emma Watson looks amazing.
2) Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card
I would have been obsessed with this series if I had heard about it as a child. I can't believe I didn't hear about it until I started library school. I say it all the time, but librarians know what they're talking about when they recommend books.
3) Ella Enchanted, by Gail Carson Levine
I didn't know the movie was based on a book until library school. I don't know how this happened. Maybe my brain locked that information out like it did with the fact that Carolyn Keene isn't a real person (also learned in library school and my world came crashing down).
I adore The Westing Game, Raskin's best work, and consider it one of my all-time favorites. I don't like this book as much, but I was still captivated by all the word play and puzzles and I know that I would have found it hilarious had I read it around the same time as The Westing Game.
5) Weetzie Bat, by Francesca Lia Block
I'm not a huge fan of this series now, but had I read it as a pre-teen/teen I would have eaten it up.
6) Boy Meets Boy, by David Levithan
I've always been pro-gay rights, but I never really read anything that featured any prominent gay characters pr gay storylines, and I would have loved this book.
I loved (and still love) Dahl's books and it would have been just as fun as a child to see the parallels between his life and his stories.
8) The Lightning Thief, by Rick Riordan
I realize this didn't come out until after I was a kid, but I do wish I had read the series earlier rather than just starting it last week. I've always loved Greek mythology and I think it's clever how it's injected into a modern setting.
9) The Series of Unfortunate Events, by Lemony Snickett
I've only recently started to read past book one of the series. I loved the first installment, which I read numerous times when I was younger. I don't really know why I never continued; maybe I was too caught up in waiting for Harry Potter books to come out.
10) Emma, by Jane Austen
Only so I could have freaked out about the Clueless genius so much earlier.

domain: entertainment


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Illinois police against preschool spending cuts
At a time when sheriffs, police chiefs and prosecutors are complaining that budget cuts to their offices put public safety at risk, a group of law enforcement officials on Thursday called on the state to increase funding.
In an unusual news conference, Cook County's sheriff, DuPage County's state's attorney and three police chiefs stayed away from their own calls for more officers, attorneys and better equipment, choosing instead to issue a warning that if Illinois doesn't beef up spending for preschools, the state will need far more money to fight and prosecute crime for years to come.
"Either spend the money up front or we are going to spend it later on incarceration, building prisons," said Rock Island Police Chief Scott Harris.
He and others pointed to a study that concluded that the $55 million the state saved by cutting Illinois-funded preschool programs — and knocking more than 17,000 children out of preschool — will ultimately result in cost taxpayers $200 million in increased criminal, social service and educational costs.
To support the findings by a nonprofit, anti-crime organization called Fight Crime: Invest in Kids Illinois, they noted a long-term study that found that by the age of 27, at-risk kids who did not attend Perry Preschool in Michigan were five times more likely to be arrested.
"Quality preschool has proven to be effective at helping children succeed in school (and) avoid crime later in life," said Russ Laine, Algonquin's police chief and the former president of the International Association of Chiefs of Police. "Cutting preschool programs puts us on a slippery slope towards more school drop outs, and more crime and more violence."
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart said all lawmakers have to do is look at the population of the county jail he runs to see the need for such program. Dart said the vast majority of inmates did not have access to programs, including preschools, that serve at-risk youths.
"You know what the results are going to be if you make preschool cuts," he said.
The officials urged Illinois lawmakers to restore about a third of the cuts to the state's Preschool for All program that have been made in the past three years, and increase funding of the Early Childhood Block Grant funding by $20 million to $345 million.

domain: law


Chasing a changing climate
Is it better to live in the north or the south? It's a question that even birds are struggling to answer as the climate in different parts of Britain changes in a variety of ways. Scientists have known for some time that global warming is causing the distributions of species to shift. Whether its warmth-loving species like the Dartford Warbler spreading north as our country's temperatures rise, or the cold-adapted inhabitants of our mountains retreating further up hill, the signature of climate change is commonplace. However, researchers are increasingly realising that not all species are tracking the climate in the same way. One reason may be that individual species respond to subtly different aspects of climate, such as temperature or rainfall at critical times of the year. Understanding this will help policymakers to adopt conservation and land management strategies that effectively assist species survival.
BTO scientists compared detailed distribution maps for 122 British birds in 1988–91 and 2008–11 to measure the complex ways in which their breeding distributions have changed. These data, collected in a standardised manner by thousands of volunteer bird surveyors, provide a unique barometer of the impacts of climate change on this one component of British biodiversity. Over these two decades temperatures in spring and summer have increased, which should have pushed species to the north-west if this aspect of climate change is key to their success, whilst higher temperatures in winter should have pushed them to the north and north-east. In contrast, if spring rainfall is critical to species, they should have been pushed to the west. When the BTO scientists looked at how bird distributions had actually changed over this period, they found that birds had indeed shifted to the north, on average by 13.5km, which continued a trend seen in previous decades. However, they also found that more than a quarter of species had extended their ranges to the north-west and north-east, and that almost half had retreated from southerly directions. Overall the range shifts could not be explained by any single climatic factor, leading the researchers to conclude that the distribution changes for British birds are complex, multi-directional and species specific.
Simon Gillings, Head of Population Ecology & Modelling & Principal Ecologist said, "We already knew that bird communities might change because some species aren't moving northwards as fast as others. But if they are also diverging in space, the communities of tomorrow could be very different than those found today."
Dawn Balmer, Head of Surveys commented, "over 10,000 volunteer surveyors undertook special timed surveys to help map bird abundance patterns, but their data have now proved invaluable for these detailed analyses of climate change impacts. It's a brilliant example of citizen science in action."
Some species are apparently adapting to the changing climate, or even benefiting from it. However, others are not and it is not yet clear what impact the arrival of species new to particular areas will have on existing biodiversity. There is therefore still much to learn in order to effectively manage the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on our wildlife.


BEIJING, CHINA: AltoBeam, a leading Digital Television (DTV) demodulator IC maker, has released its third generation CTTB/DTMB terrestrial DTV demodulators, the ATBM884x product family.
Powered by AltoBeam’s unique algorithms that seamlessly incorporate both single-carrier and multi-carrier modes, the ATBM884x family is in full compliance with China’s terrestrial DTV broadcasting standard, the DTMB (GB20600-2006).
Based on field tests conducted by DTV service providers, the ATBM884x leads its peers, by large margins, in Synchronous Frequency Network (SFN) performance. The significance is that, with the SFN being expected to dominate China’s terrestrial DTV infrastructure in the foreseeable future, the ATBM884x enables DTV makers to achieve a critical competitive advantage in stable SFN receiving capability.
The ATBM884x exhibits exceptional receiving qualities under multi-path and dynamic echoes conditions. The ATBM884x is the only DTMB demodulator that supports smooth high mobility reception in single-carrier 32QAM (CESI Mode 7) environment.
This advantage is also beneficial in fixed reception applications: living room TVs close to streets or water-fronts are susceptible to multi-path dynamic-echo interferences induced by traffic or tidal waves, and the ATBM884x, greatly reducing these interferences, can bring much improved viewing experience to the TV users.
“No matter how strong the broadcasting signals are, if the multi-path echoes cannot be resolved, the pictures can be distorted greatly, and sometimes ‘black screen’ could be displayed,” said Dr. Steve Chaohuang Zeng, founder and CEO of AltoBeam.
“We developed the ATBM884x family as a direct answer to this challenge. The ATBM884x allows DTV makers to develop products that are suitable in the real environments, supports them to establish quality-based brand recognition, and reduces their dependency on post-sales calibration and technical supports.”
“Due to its industry leading SFN, multi-path and dynamic echo performance, a majority of the Tier One TV makers, both international and domestic, have started developing DTVs based on the ATBM884x,” added Qi Deng, VP of International Sales of AltoBeam.
“In addition, AltoBeam provides complete development kits, test packages, and reference source code, all critical for our customers to develop products in the most time-efficient and cost-effective fashion.”


text:
The Role of Fluorescence for Genetic Screening of Tay-Sach Disease
Genetic screening for Tay-Sach disease involves the measurement of fluorescence released from an artificial substrate. This is due to the presence of the functional enzyme hexosaminidase, which when present, releases maximum fluorescence. In the absence of this enzyme, little to no fluorescence will be released. Carriers of the disease will show intermediate levels of fluorescence. The levels of fluorescence to be expected for each genotype can be determined by measuring the enzyme activity and the amount of substrate present in the sample. For individuals with the disease, the enzyme activity is significantly reduced, resulting in a low level of fluorescence. For carriers, the enzyme activity is reduced, but not as much as in those with the full disease, resulting in intermediate levels of fluorescence. Those without the disease will have normal enzyme activity, resulting in high levels of fluorescence (Lam, 2018).
Additionally, there are certain point mutations associated with Tay-Sach disease that can be detected using fluorescence. The point mutations disrupt the enzyme activity, resulting in a decreased level of fluorescence. This can be used to accurately diagnose the disease (Lam, 2016). Cont…
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domain: chemistry


text:
Share This Author
Comparison of textural and sensory characteristics of low-fat mayonnaise prepared from octenyl succinic anhydride modified corn and white sorghum starches
Mayonnaise is a popular condiment containing 65–75% oil by weight. The aim of the study was to develop a low fat (75% fat-replaced) mayonnaise using chemically modified octenyl-succinic anhydride…
Small molecule 2′-deoxycytidine differentiates human umbilical cord-derived MSCs into cardiac progenitors in vitro and their in vivo xeno-transplantation improves cardiac function
- S. R. Ali, Waqas Ahmad, Nadia Naeem, A. Salim, Irfan Khan
- Biology, MedicineMolecular and Cellular Biochemistry
- 15 May 2020
2-DC treated UC-MSCs not only improved cardiac function, but also restored tissue homeostasis, suggesting a better therapeutic option for the regeneration of cardiac tissue in the clinical setup.
Cytotoxicity and chromosomal aberrations induced by methanolic extract of Cuscuta reflexa and its pure compounds on meristematic cells of Allium species.
- S. R. Ali, S. Haque, -. Mudassar, Muhammad Ali Versiani, S. Faizi, A. Farooq
- Chemistry, MedicinePakistan journal of pharmaceutical sciences
- 1 March 2017
A new method of calculating percent change in root length was adopted and found that in MECR, cardenolides glycosides, i.e. odoroside H and neritaloside could be accountable for its genotoxicity.
Abstract 412: Wnt / β-catenin Inhibitor Differentiates Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells into Myogenic Lineage in vitro and Improved Cardiac Function in vivo in Rat Model of Myocardial Infarction
A large number of patients with known or suspected CVDs are receiving chemotherapy for atypical reasons, which can have an adverse effect on their quality of life and need to be monitored closely.
Role of gold- and silver-based nanoparticles in stem cells differentiation
List of contributors
Evaluation of cytotoxicity of leaf and rhizome extracts of Alpinia calcarata rosc. against human lung nci-h460 and cervical hela cancer cell lines
The cytotoxicty of Alpinia calcarata rhizome and leaf extracts, fractions and essential oils were evaluated in vitro against human lung NCI-H460 and cervical HeLa cancer cell lines using…

domain: medical


text:
The goal of JISRF and Reconstructive Review is to provide peer-reviewed, open-access orthopaedic articles focusing on total joint arthroplasty. To achieve this goal we rely on those individuals who are willing to take on the responsibility, and privilege, to review articles written by their peers. The following are some general guidelines to outline the purpose, good practices, and responsibilities of our reviewers.
The purpose of peer review
- To ensure Quality of Work: The reviewer must check that no mistakes in procedures or logic have been made by the authors.
- The results presented by the authors supports the conclusion drawn – the reviewer must be satisfied that all evidence presented can be justified.
- Any previous work that is cited in the research must be supported by evidence within the new research and be easily trackable.
- The author is responsible for ensuring that their research has followed all necessary protocols – especially in the case where animals and humans have been involved.
- The reviewer must be satisfied that all of the work is original and significant – they must raise concerns to the editor if they do not believe this to be the case.
- The reviewer must feel that the research is relevant to the publication.
- The peer review process should offer protection for both the publication and author.
Good review practices
- Reviewers should treat a article being reviewed as he or she would want their own paper reviewed. For example they should provide a critique that is positive, critical yet objective, and balanced.
- It should never be possible for a reviewer to pass personally offensive comments. We make it the responsibility of the Editor to filter out any comments rather than them being automatically displayed to the author.
- Any author will want a speedy decision on their paper – and a journal with a fast turnaround will be getting submissions in on that basis – therefore the reviewer should review the paper promptly.
- The reviewer should provide precise information as to what the problems are and how they could be overcome. In EM we provide the option for the reviewer to be able to download the paper – to annotate comments and to then be able to upload a sanitized version for the editor,. The editor can then decide if they would like the author and/or other reviewers to be able to see those comments.
- A critique that does not provide any way forward is not helpful to the editor or to the author.
- Analysis of the review process should be on-going and changes should be made to improve this.
Responsibility of the reviewer
- To give an informed opinion about the article based on their own experiences.
- It should be an honest, critical assessment of the research which highlights the strengths and weakness of the research.
- To provide suggestions for improvement and state what changes need to be made to raise the level of enthusiasm for the work.
- Points that they raise should not manipulate the process to get issues addressed when they are not relevant to the study.
- Confidentiality is a key requirement – the existence of the article and the authors must not be made known public before it has been published.
- If the research of the author covers the same area that the reviewer is currently researching – they must not use the material for their own benefit.
- They must disclose any conflicts of interest.
- They must only review papers that are within their own areas of expertise – unless they are specifically asked to give a ‘non-expert’ opinion.
- They must adhere to the timescales as set out by the publication or at least alert the publication if there are to be delays.
- If they suspect plagiarism, duplicate publications fraud or any ethical concerns they must bring these to the attention of the editor preferably providing evidence - is a difficult position for an Editor to be faced with having to address this type issue and they must do so based on hard evidence.
The Peer Review Process
The process of peer review assures the quality of the content in the articles, with the goal being new knowledge and skills that are of practical benefit to the readers of Reconstructive Review.
Two reviewers and one alternate reviewer are usually chosen for each article. Reviews are evaluated by the Managing Editor, who makes the preliminary decision to accept, decline, or ask the author to revise the article. Reviewers must have experience above that of the resident level (ie, usually doctors who are in midcareer).
The peer reviewer determines whether the article is substantive and accurate, with appropriate scope and in sufficient detail. The topic should not be too broad or general. Constructive comments and suggestions are meant to challenge the author to improve the article where necessary and to guide the author in presenting the material clearly and concisely. The reviewer must remain fair and unbiased in the critical appraisal of the material.
Double-blinded Review Process and Timeframe
Reviews are double-blinded; that is, reviewers and authors are not informed of each other’s identities during the review process. If the reviewer, Managing Editor, and/or Editor-in-Chief feel more revisions are deemed necessary a submission may undergo several reviews.
- Reviewers must take care not to identify themselves, their patients, or their institutions within the body of their comments.
- Reviews are read by the assigned Managing Editor, who makes the preliminary decision to accept or decline, or to ask the author to revise the article. The Managing Editor may also request that the reviewer comment on an extensively revised article that he or she had reviewed previously in an earlier version.
- Reviews are to be returned in a timely manner, within 2 weeks of invitation, as determined by the Editorial Board of Directors. Because the Managing Editor’s decision must wait until all reviews are complete, a delay by a single reviewer slows the editorial process. Agree to review an article only if you have the proper expertise and are confident that you meet the deadline.
Preparing Your Review
Please consider the following when accepting an invitation and/or preparing your review.
- If you have a conflict of interest (eg, you believe that you know who the authors are or you work with one of them, you have worked on a paper with one of the authors, or you have a financial, professional, personal, intellectual, political, or religious interest/disagreement with the text), respond to your review invitation by letting the editor know of your conflict of interest. Full disclosure allows for an informed decision.
- If you notice that the article has substantial similarity with a concurrent submission to another journal or to a published article, or if you have ethical concerns about the work (eg, you suspect that results cited may be untrue or fraudulent, or you suspect unethical treatment of humans or animals in the studies described), it is your responsibility to alert the Managing Editor of your concerns. You should not conduct any personal investigations into suspected misconduct or contact the authors (should you become aware of their identities) unless the editorial office asks for further information.
- Your ethical responsibility as a reviewer is to not make use of material under your review prior to publication, and you must not publicly discuss the article or use knowledge of it to further your own interests.
- Requesting the opinion of a colleague may be appropriate in some circumstances, but you should always let the editor know beforehand. This also applies if you decide to enlist the help of a junior colleague in preparing your review, and you should include his/her name and affiliation in your confidential comments to the editor.
- After submitting your review, please do not keep electronic or hard copies of the article. The article and its review are confidential.
Review the Structure of the Article
As a reviewer, you may also wish to familiarize yourself with the Journal’s Instructions for Authors, available on the Reconstructive Review website (http://reconstructivereview.org/). Your review will analyze the material according to the components of a standard review article. If the article deviates significantly from these guidelines, please indicate this in your comments.
- Title: Succinctly describes the paper and is not in sentence form.
- Abstract: Presents the main points of the paper. Authors are to avoid general statements that “tell” rather than “show” (eg, ask an author to change “This article examines risk factors in this population” to a statement of facts, “Prophylaxis should be used in patients with such risk factors as respiratory failure and hypotension.”)
- Introduction: If pertinent, this paragraph identifies the matter under discussion and presents background information, relevant statistics and history, and etiology.
- Body: The author reviews the pertinent literature, discusses any controversies or debates, and examines the state of the art. Published studies that are discussed, for the most part, should be no more than 5 years old. However, it is acceptable to use older references when discussed in a historical context. When pertinent, treatment methods, such as surgical versus nonsurgical management, are discussed. Figures, tables, and algorithms should be called out appropriately in the body of the paper. The authors’ discussion of best treatment methods and personal experience, when applicable, are included here.
- Summary: More than simply a repetition of the text, this section reiterates the nature of the problem or the controversy, provides a clear conclusion based on the literature and the author’s experience, and frequently suggests a role for ongoing study and future directions.
- References: For a standard review article, this section should number about 40 sources. For an Orthopaedic Advances article, 20 sources are sufficient. At least a quarter of the references should have been published within the past 5 years. Cited studies should be original research published or in-press in the peer-reviewed literature, rather than textbooks, abstracts, or poster presentations. However, citation of textbook chapters is permitted when the context requires it. Personal communications are never allowed.
- Figures: Line drawings, radiographs, tables, and algorithms should be called out appropriately within the body of the paper. Please verify the information presented in tables agrees with the text, and the legends clearly and accurately describe the images.
- Tables: Tables must be numbered consecutively in the order in which they are cited in the text. A title must be provided for each table, and each column must have a heading. Tables from another source must contain the same bibliographic information as required for a reference.
Blinded Comments to the Author
Structure your comments and recommendations, as follows:
- General Comments: Typically, open your review with a paragraph that summarizes the content of the article.
- Specific Comments: The bulk of your review will be a detailed, numbered list of your specific concerns. Be sure to include the article page number and line number (if available) for each comment. This is important because the corresponding author will be able to provide a point-by-point response to each of the comments when submitting a revision.
- Closing Comments: Please provide a short paragraph mentioning the overall strengths and weaknesses of the article. Indicate the usefulness or value of the article to the practicing orthopaedic surgeon, residents, and fellows in training.
Submitting Your Review
When you receive an Article Review Request email it will include a date to log onto the journal website to indicate whether you will undertake the review, and a link to the submission to be reviewed. If you do not know your login information please contact the Managing Editor at email@example.com.
Once you accept the review request you will be able to download the submission manuscript and supplementary files, fill out a review form, upload files for the editor and/or author to consult, and select and recommendation to complete the review.
Become a Reviewer for Reconstructive Review
If you would like to become a reviewer for Reconstructive Review please register. In filling out your Profile you will be required to provide a Username, Password, First Name, and Last Name. Please fill in as much other information as you would like. Be sure to check the box next to Reviewer in the Confirmation Registration section at the bottom of the Profile and to provide some descriptive words of your reviewing interests. General areas of interests include the following:
- Total Joint Replacement
- Total Hip Replacement
- Total Knee Replacement
- Oncology Related Arthroplasty
- Basic Science Related to Total Joint Surgery
- Biomaterials & Bioengineering
- Reconstructive Trauma Surgery
- Reconstructive Spinal Surgery
Please click here to download a PDF version of these guidelines.

domain: library