text:
This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.
Recent changes to global and regional climates, exacerbated by anthropogenic activity, have accelerated global hydrological cycles, altering not only the overall magnitude of precipitation but also its seasonal distribution, interannual variability, intensity, frequency, and duration worldwide (Allan and Soden 2008; Easterling et al. 2000; Karl and Trenberth 2003; Trenberth et al. 2007; Zeng et al. 1999). In many regions, precipitation is the primary factor affecting water availability (Szwed 2018). Numerous Global CGCM-based studies (Coupled General Circulation Models) have indicated the potential for uneven impacts of future change on precipitation, with increases in many parts of the world and decreases in others (IPCC 2013; Kharin and Zwiers 2000, 2005; Osborn et al. 2016; Semenov and Bengtsson 2002; Voss et al. 2002). As local water resources depend not only on the quantity, but also on the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation, any changes in these characteristics may pose significant economic, ecological, and societal threats (Li et al. 2011; Qian et al. 2003; Zhang et al. 2009).
The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in precipitation (Morton 2007; Parry and Carter 1989). Reliable predictions of precipitation play a crucial role in agricultural productivity (Adams et al. 1998; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal 2013; Rosenberg 1992), strongly influencing the ability to accommodate the world’s growing food needs (Lal 2013; Risbey et al. 1999; Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010). With no major surface rivers and limited irrigation, agricultural activities in the Yucatan Peninsula Mexico are heavily dependent on the timing of the onset of the rainy season and prediction of the intensity and distribution of seasonal precipitation (García-Gil et al. 2002). In Calakmul, Campeche, the predominately small-scale, rain-fed agriculture, known as milpa,Footnote 1 has already been drastically affected by climatic stresses, including droughts and hurricanes, and further non-climatic stressors poses considerable stress on local farmers (Alayón-Gamboa and Ku-Vera 2011; Gurri-Garcia and Vallejo-Nieto 2007; Radel et al. 2012; Schmook et al. 2013; SIAP 2017).
Previous research by Mardero et al. (2014) addressed how farmers in Calakmul have modified their agricultural calendar, reducing the area under maize cultivation, and diversified economic activities due to the effects of increasing precipitation variability and droughts. The schedule of agricultural activities is largely dictated by rainfall, beginning with land preparation (including crop selection and planting) and culminating with harvest and transport to market (Conde-Álvarez and Saldaña-Zorrilla 2007; FAO 2009). Yields may suffer with either a late onset or early cessation of the growing season, or due to frequent dry spells or extreme precipitation events during the growing season (Mugalavai et al. 2008). While dry spells may limit agricultural productivity, changes in the intensity may also be reflected in soil structural parameters critical to crop growth (Allen et al. 2011).
While there has been considerable research on total annual and seasonal precipitation trends, relatively little research has addressed changes in the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation (Karl and Trenberth 2003; O’Gorman 2015; Pal et al. 2013; Sarhadi and Soulis 2017). Several methods used in this paper have been applied separately by researchers working in other regions. Konalapa and Mishra (2016) analyzed changes in the temporal variability of precipitation at both continental and global scales (from 1950 to 2005) due to anthropogenic activities, finding a decrease in rainfall uniformity as well as changes in quantity and intensity of annual precipitation. Valli et al. (2013) explored the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) (1981 to 2010) across various Agro-Climatic Zones of Andhra Pradesh, India, concluding that there have been significant changes in rainfall patterns especially during the 2000s. Li et al. (2011) used daily data to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and precipitation concentration period (PCP) in Xinjiang, China, showing that precipitation concentration is noticeably larger in places where both annual total precipitation and number of rainy days are lower, but also that most areas of Xinjiang are characterized by no significant trends of precipitation PCI. Using the Gini Index to measure the temporal distribution of daily precipitation worldwide from 1976 to 2000, Rajah et al. (2014) showed that East Asia, Central America, and Brazil exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and light precipitation days, in contrast to the USA, southern South America, western Europe, and Australia, which all exhibited an increase in the number of both wet and light precipitation days.
In México, one of the few studies addressing changes in the distribution and intensity of precipitation, by Cavazos and Rivas (2004) on the variability of precipitation extremes in Tijuana, Baja California, from 1950 to 2000, found that the greatest recorded variability in precipitation extremes has happened since the mid-1970s. In the Yucatan Peninsula, Mardero et al. (2012) calculated precipitation trends from 1980 to 2010 in the southern Peninsula, showing that annual precipitation had decreased by 16%, while drought frequency had increased over the last 50 years across the Greater Calakmul Region. Martinez and Galindo-Leal (2002) demonstrated that mean precipitation in the Yucatan Peninsula declined from 1300 mm in the 1950s to 790 mm during the 1990s. Orellana et al. (2009) produced regional climate projections for the entire Peninsula, complementing the IPCC (2007, 2013) projections that this area will increasingly suffer from both extreme droughts and more extreme events, such as hurricanes, such as category-5 Dean in 2007 (Gurri-Garcia and Vallejo-Nieto 2007; Rogan et al. 2011). Further, the integration of farmers’ empirical knowledge and quantitative assessments of impacts on subsistence agriculture suggest that patterns of rainfall are changing in timing and distribution (Mardero et al. 2018).
Understanding precipitation distribution and patterns in Calakmul is critical given the importance of water as a vital resource for both society and ecosystems. The municipality of Calakmul is home to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the largest protected tropical forest in Mexico, covering 7231 km2 (Fig. 1). Water availability determines the presence, abundance, distribution, and the survival of animal and plant species living in the Reserve (Carrillo-Reyna et al. 2015; Garza-López et al. 2018; Martínez 2016; Pérez-Cortéz et al. 2012). Water availability stored during rainy season in the few semi-permanent surface water bodies called aguadas (García-Gil et al. 2002) constrains the movements of several species, such as white-lipped peccaries (Reyna-Hurtado et al. 2009), Baird’s tapir, and jaguar (O’Farrill et al. 2006) in the region. Aguadas are the main source of water supply for the native fauna of the Calakmul region during the dry season (Aranda 1990; Hernández-Huerta et al. 2000; Vaughan and Weis 1999) and the spatio-temporal variation of these water sources has an important effect on the activities and habits of many species (Chávez-Tovar 2010; García-Gil 2003; Naranjo and Bodmer 2002). If precipitation during the wet season does not replenish the aguadas, animals may broaden their migratory ranges to survive the dry season, increasing the risk of hunting or conflicts with rural communities.
By evaluating changes in the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall from 1982 to 2016 in the municipality of Calakmul in the southern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, this study investigates both an overall decrease in regional precipitation (as indicated by previous research) and also whether changes in the onset of the wet season, the distribution and intensity of rainfall, and negative rainfall anomalies have become more frequent, through three hypotheses:
The intensity and distribution of total and wet season rainfall has changed from 1982 to 2016, independent of the total precipitation during this period.
The onset and duration of the wet season has changed during the period 1982–2016.
There is an increased frequency of anomalous rainfall events during the period 1982–2016.
2 Data and methods
2.1 Study area
The municipality of Calakmul covers 13,849 km2 in southeastern Campeche, in the center of the Yucatan peninsula (Ibarra-Manríquez and Martínez-Ramos 2002).
Local physiography and vegetation around Calakmul are characteristic of the south-central Yucatán Peninsula (c.f., Lundell and Swallen 1934; Miranda 1958). Rolling hills of karstic upland (250 m.a.s.l.) are interspersed with low-lying areas, or bajos, covered mainly by medium and low semi-deciduous forest (Lundell and Swallen 1934; Miranda 1958). Soils vary physiographically, with shallow and relatively well-drained redzinas along hillsides and high ground, deep but poorly drained clays (vertisols) in the bajos, and extremely shallow and rocky lithosols on hill tops (Abizaid and Coomes 2004).
Annual average precipitation in the Yucatan Peninsula is highly variable, ranging from 900 mm in the northwest to 1400 mm in the southeast and is characterized by two main seasons: a dry season between November and April, followed by a wet season from May to October (Vidal-Zepeda 2005), with a mid-summer drought locally called canícula between the end on July and August. In addition, winter frontal systems originating in Canada, called Nortes, bring rain, wind, and cold air masses to the Gulf of Mexico (Márdero et al. 2012). The average annual temperature is 24–26 °C (Vester et al. 2007).
Mean annual precipitation across the three meteorological stations selected for this study varies from ~ 920 mm in Zoh Laguna to ~ 1300 mm in Silvituc (~ 100 km between these two stations). Silvituc station, the most humid, is situated near Laguna Silvituc, also called Noh Laguna, which may influence the surrounding microclimate, while the Zoh Laguna station does not have any significant water body nearby.
2.2 Data and preparation
While the Mexican National Climatological Database (CLICOM SYSTEM) lists 8 meteorological stations in the Municipality of Calakmul, only 2 have records that span at least 30 years (Zoh Laguna and Xbonil), reflecting one of the major challenges for climatological analysis in Mexico: the availability and reliability of precipitation data. Data spanning this period from another nearby station (Silvituc), in the neighboring municipality of Escárcega, was also used in this study (Fig. 1 and Table 1). Daily and monthly rainfall data for these stations from 1982 to 2016 were obtained from the Mexican National Water Commission (CONAGUA).
Data gaps were identified (see Table 1) and were filled by inverse distance weighting (IDW), using available data from the partial records of other stations within 50 km. This gap-filling process yielded a continuous and homogenous time series of precipitation data, with both daily and monthly precipitation data for each of the three stations for the entire study period, 1982 to 2016.
2.3 Statistical methods
This study included five types of analyses of precipitation: (a) calculation of precipitation onset and cessation; (b) annual and wet season trend analysis; (c) identification of rainfall anomalies; (d) calculation of analysis of temporal distribution; and (e) evaluation of intensity of rainfall events. A fuzzy-logic approach was used to determine rainy season onset. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope test were used to analyze annual and wet season trends over the study period. The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was used to address the deficit or surplus of rainfall relative to the average. The Gini Index and the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) were used to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation. Finally, the SDII (Simple Precipitation Intensity Index) was used to evaluate precipitation intensity.
2.3.1 Onset and cessation
Onset was defined as the first day of a 5-day period with a total rainfall of at least 20 mm of rainfall and at least two other wet days in this 5-day period (at least 1 mm of rainfall recorded), with no dry spell of seven or more consecutive days occurring in the subsequent 30 days (Dodd and Jolliffe 2001). Onset dates were calculated from Eq. (1), given by:
where OD is the onset date and D is the total number of days in the first month with effective rain (MER: the accumulated rainfall totals equal or exceeds 20 mm). F (mm) is the accumulated rainfall total of earlier months and R is the accumulated rainfall within the MER.
Precipitation onset and cessation for the entire period (i.e., long-term seasonality) were calculated following Marengo et al. (2001) and Liebmann et al. (2008), to create anomalous accumulation curves. This process yielded two values: the long-term annual precipitation mean and the long-term daily average for each day of the year. The daily average was subtracted by the annual mean daily average to produce a metric of the accumulated daily anomalies. The start of the season is the minimum value of the curve and the end of the season is the maximum value in the curve.
2.3.2 Trend analysis
The Mann-Kendall test is a statistical test widely used for trend analysis in climatic and hydrological time series (Mavromatis and Stathis 2011; Yue and Wang 2004). There are two advantages of using this test. First, it is a non-parametric test and does not require the data to be normally distributed. Second, the test has low sensitivity to abrupt breaks due to inhomogeneous time series (Tabari et al. 2011). Using the excel template application MAKESENS (Salmi et al. 2002), the Mann-Kendall test was conducted for each of the three stations, from 1982 to 2016, both annually and for the wet season (from May to October).
In addition to Mann-Kendall test, we also used the Sen’s slope method. Sen’s slope test was performed because even if the trend calculated through the Mann-Kendall test is no statistically significant (at 1%, 5%, or 10% level), there is still a trend which magnitude can be calculated (Salmi et al. 2002; Rahman et al. 2016).
2.3.3 Precipitation anomalies
The RAI, developed by Van Rooy (1965), was used to evaluate meteorological droughts (Keyantash and Dracup 2002). Rainfall anomalies were calculated and classified, both annually and for the wet season. Positive and negative RAI indices were computed using the mean of ten extremes for setting up a threshold for both positive and negative anomalies. The Index normalizes precipitation values against the long-term average (1982–2016), to place current conditions into a historical perspective. Rooy’s classification is shown in Table 2.
2.3.4 Precipitation distribution
The Gini Index is a standard measure of inequality widely used to measure income inequality and, recently, in hydrology and climatology to evaluate how unevenly precipitation is distributed over a year (Ceriani and Verme 2012; Masaki et al. 2014). It ranges from 0 (which means that each of the 365 days of the year receives exactly de same amount of rainfall) to 1 (which indicates that all the yearly rainfall falls in 1 day) (Rajah et al. 2014).
Using the Inequality Measures Package in R (Cowell 2000), the Gini Index was calculated with four variations: annually and for the wet season alone, both for each year separately and for the entire time period. To estimate the Gini Index, daily precipitation is sorted by increasing amount, summed cumulatively, and converted to a percentage of total precipitation, forming a Lorenz curve to graphically illustrate inequality distribution (see Masaki et al. 2014).
To complement the precipitation distribution analysis, annual PCI was calculated (in R with the package precintcon, by Povoa and Nery 2016) to assess the precipitation concentration based on the variability of monthly precipitation (Sangüesa et al. 2018), complementing the Gini Index, which is based on daily precipitation data. PCI is a powerful indicator of the temporal distribution of precipitation, providing information on long-term total variability in the total amount of rainfall (Apaydin et al. 2006; De Luis et al. 2011; Michiels et al. 1992; Ngongondo et al. 2011). PCI categorizes precipitation distribution: values of less than 10 represent a uniform precipitation distribution (i.e., low precipitation concentration), values from 11 to 15 denote a moderate precipitation concentration, values from 16 to 20 denote irregular distribution, and values above 20 represent highly concentrated precipitation (De Luis et al. 2011; Oliver 1980).
2.3.5 Precipitation intensity
The SDII (Cooley and Chang 2017) is considered by the World Meteorological Organization as one of the best indicators for representing precipitation patterns, especially during the wet season. The SDII is the ratio of annual or seasonal total rainfall to the number of days during the year or season when rainfall occurred (rain day is defined as: daily rain ≥ 1 mm) (Keggenhoff et al. 2014), and it was used to determine the precipitation intensity of the rainy season and annually of each year of the data series.
3.1 Rainy season onset and cessation
Results of the fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season were calculated for each year, and for the entire 35-year period, for each station, an accumulation curve was also calculated to address the accumulated precipitation during the 365 days of the year. The precipitation curve increases in slope around day number 150 of each year, which corresponds to the end of May. Then, the curve drops approximately around day 300, in late October.
As illustrated in Table 3, rainy season dates in all stations start and end around the same time. The rainy season in Zoh Laguna starts in the second half of May, and in the other two stations by the end of May, with a maximum difference of 7 days between the stations. Cessation occurs by the end of October, or the first week of November at Silvituc. These results coincide with other studies (i.e., Orellana et al. 2009; Vidal-Zepeda 2005) and with local knowledge as reported by farmers (Mardero et al. 2014). For example, the agricultural calendar for the maize crop in the area usually starts in late May or June, coincident with precipitation onset.
Results of the trend tests indicate no significant trend of an advance or a delay in rainfall onset (Fig. 2). However, some changes over time can be observed. For example, the Silvituc station during the 1990s exhibited a delay in the rainfall onset, starting in August in half of the 10 years, then, during the 2000s, the onset went back to May/June. For Xbonil, during the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was a delay in the onset of rainfall, and for Zoh Laguna, a trend in the delay of rainfall onset was observed from 2005 to 2016, with several years in which the rainy season started after mid-July.
3.2 Long-term patterns and precipitation trends
Results of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test were performed for each year (entire year and wet season only) showed a small increase in precipitation at all stations, both annually and during the wet season (Fig. 2), but these results were not statistically significant. The three stations exhibit high interannual variability and exhibit similar patterns for some years.
The Mann-Kendall test for Silvituc demonstrated a positive, but not significant, trend (Z scores of 0.74 and 1.02, respectively). Sen’s estimate shows a positive slope in the time series. Even though the results of the trend analysis are not statistically significant, it is notable that from 1994 to 2004, most of the residuals are negative, with positive residuals in the period from 2005 to 2016, both annually and during the wet season.
Similar to Silvituc, Xbonil, and Zoh Laguna show a non-significant, positive trend both annually and during the wet season (Z scores of 0.34 and 0.82; 0.23 and 0.85, respectively). In Xbonil, from 2000 to 2010, most of the residuals are negative, indicating drier years.
Zoh Laguna showed a very dry period from 1985 to 2002; then, the precipitation recovered except for 2009 and 2015. During 2015, many local media reports (Chim 2017) called attention to the drought affecting agricultural activities and the wildlife inside of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve.
Even with the lack of significant trends, the three stations did exhibit high interannual variability with similar patterns for some of the years. Years with the driest and wettest conditions vary from each station as shown in Table 4:
In general, the years with least rainfall at the three stations were 1986, 2004, and 2009; with 2009 the driest year during this period. The years with most rainfall were 1985, 1988, 1995, and 2013 (Fig. 3).
The lack of a significant trend further underscore the importance of analyzing the intensity and distribution of precipitation in order to investigate and understand the changes perceived in the area. Furthermore, variability in precipitation associated to both non-extreme and extreme events is of great importance due to its role in natural ecosystems and agricultural activities.
3.3 Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)
RAI was calculated for each of the three stations from 1982 to 2016. There are moderately wet years, years with normal precipitation, dry years, and very dry years distributed throughout the study period. Through this graphical analysis (Fig. 4), there is concurrency among all three stations for 1988–1990, 1995, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2013 with positive anomalies, from moderately wet to extremely wet; and years of the mid-1980s, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2015 showing moderately dry to extremely dry behavior.
The Mann-Kendall Test and the Sen’s slope (Fig. 4) demonstrate an increase in positive rainfall anomalies for Silvituc and Zoh Laguna (Z value of 0.82 and 1.05, respectively) and an increase of negative anomalies at Xbonil (Z value of − 1.56) especially after 2000, but these trends are not statistically significant.
3.4 Rainfall distribution and intensity
The Gini coefficient for daily data, for all the stations, over the 35-year period, is higher than 0.8, both annually and in the wet season, indicating highly concentrated precipitation in the study area (see Table 5). Annual Gini values are slightly higher than wet season values, reflecting the highly seasonal rainfall regime. Nevertheless, the Gini values for the wet season are still indicating that even wet season rainfall (May to October) is highly concentrated.
The most even rainfall distribution (lowest Gini values) even during the rainy season can be found at Silvituc and Xbonil, two stations on the western side of the study region. Zoh Laguna, the station to the east of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve presents the most concentrated and unevenly distributed rains.
Precipitation intensity, as measured by SDII, exhibits a different pattern. The two western stations present higher values, indicating that the intensity of daily precipitation is higher there, and less intense closer to the reserve. Thus, during rainy season in Zoh Laguna precipitation is concentrated in a few very rainy days, as compared with Silvituc and Xbonil.
The values displayed in Table 5 represent the overall rainfall distribution and intensity during the 35-year study period. Figure 4 shows the annual and wet season trends for the Gini Index for the three stations. There were statistically significant positive trends (99% confidence interval) for both, Silvituc and Xbonil, indicating an increasingly unevenly distributed (less uniform) precipitation over time. Unlike Zoh Laguna, which exhibits a positive, but not significant, trend (Z value 1.56).
Figure 5 shows that Zoh Laguna has a positive trend with a relatively high Mann-Kendall Z score of 1.42, indicating that the rainfall distribution has changed and being concentrated in some periods during the wet season. Xbonil displays the same tendency but with a lower Z score (1.16). In contrast, Silvituc shows that the Gini index has been stable over the time period studied.
Figure 6 shows the results of the Severity Index (SDII) for both annual and wet season precipitation. Each of the three stations presents a positive significant trend (Z scores > 1.96; 90% confidence), indicating that the intensity of daily precipitation has increased significantly. This suggests that rainfall has become more intense and concentrated.
To strengthen the analysis of precipitation distribution, in addition to the GINI index, the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was calculated with monthly data, and PCI trends were calculated from 1982 to 2016 using the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s slope. Most of PCI values in the Calakmul area range from 11 to 15 (moderate precipitation concentration) and from 16 to 20 (irregular distribution). There are also few years with a PCI higher than 20, indicating highly irregular precipitation distribution, especially from 2006 to 2016 and particularly at Xbonil.
The results showed no obvious trend for Silvituc and Zoh Laguna (Z values of 0.97 and 0.28 respectively), but Xbonil exhibited a significant positive trend with a 90% confidence interval (Z value of 2.76). However, there was a slight increase over time in PCI values, potentially indicating concentrated precipitation in some months, which may relate to the pronounced seasonal rainfall fluctuations in Calakmul.
Overall, all three stations display a significant increase in the intensity of precipitation, both annually and during the wet season. In addition, Xbonil station also showed a significant increase in precipitation concentration. These results together affirm that, even in the rainy season, precipitation is concentrated in shorter periods of time or in fewer events. Table 6 shows these results summarized by index.
Any changes in precipitation patterns critically influence rain-fed agriculture. Worldwide, scientists, academics, and decision makers have paid increased attention to the risks associated with climate change, including increased uncertainty regarding food production (Ewert et al. 2015; Reddy and Pachepsky 2000). As water availability is one of the most limiting constraints for crop production and food security, there is a critical need to understand the detail of precipitation patterns at a regional scale.
Investigations of changing precipitation patterns require at least 30 years of climate data, given temporal climate oscillations (Onyutha et al. 2016), especially in trend detection (Camberlin 2009; Di Baldassarre et al. 2011). In addition, trend results often depend not only on the length of the data record, but also on the specific time period selected for analyses. Previous research in the region by Martínez and Galindo-Leal (2002) found that precipitation in the Calakmul region declined from 1950 to 1990, and Mardero et al. (2012) also found an important precipitation decline at Zoh Laguna from 1973 to 2002. In many developing countries, the challenge of having access to a complete record of reliable data further complicates regional climate analysis and necessitates careful interpretation.
The overall rainfall trends in Calakmul indicate a slight, non-significant, increase during the study period, consistent with work in the Caribbean by Dore (2005), who also found an overall precipitation increase. However, this increase does not necessarily imply that the region has benefited from more precipitation. Rather, as others have noted (Chou et al. 2013; Karl and Trenberth 2003; Luo et al. 2007; Pal et al. 2013), analysis of rainfall intensity and distribution is necessary to understand its impacts. In Calakmul, the effects of increased rainfall variability and intensity in agriculture have contributed to the loss of food security in communities, thus aggravating poverty and modifying rural livelihoods.
Traditional knowledge from local farmers can provide further insights about climatic changes. Mardero et al. (2014, 2015) highlight that farmers in Calakmul have perceived substantial changes in the climate over the last three decades. Farmers report that temperatures are increasing and emphasize that now, “it is raining differently,” indicating delayed onset of the rainy season and noting a few intense precipitation events and even flooding, followed by weeks without rain events.
Predictable rainfall onset and cessation dates are critical to farmers in the Calakmul region, in order to decide which maize types to cultivate and when to plant. While the wet season in the Yucatán Peninsula is “traditionally” from May to October, results of this analysis indicate high interannual variability in the onset of the rainy season, starting in May in some years, and in late July or even as late as August in others. Similarly, years with great maize losses (such as 2004 and 2007) correspond to years in which the rainy season started later than usual.
These erratic patterns have caused substantial crop losses, especially in 2004 and 2007 when around 70% of the total maize surface was lost in Calakmul (INIFAP 2017). Mardero et al. (2012) found that years considered to be “severe drought years” were related to the agricultural losses and the desiccation of surface water bodies visited by many species of animals in the Reserve. The Yucatan Peninsula, including the Calakmul region, has a long history of droughts, which some scholars believe contributed to the collapse of Mayan civilization (Medina-Elizalde and Rohling 2012; Douglas et al. 2015).
The results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) of the three stations in Calakmul consistently show similar trends in both an irregular precipitation distribution and also the increased intensity of rainfall events. These results suggest, as reported by the CEPAL (2015), IPCC (2013), and scholars like Bouroncle et al. (2017) and Dow and Downing (2016), that more extreme precipitation events are likely to happen in Central America, including the Mayan lowlands of Mexico.
The increased frequency of anomalous rainfall events was demonstrated through the RAI trend results. While RAI analysis lacked a significant trend, it showed more pronounced crests and troughs over the last decade (2004–2016). This higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies (both positive and negative) suggest that the climate in Calakmul is becoming more extreme.
This increased variability in precipitation could be explained from a Global Climate Change perspective. There is a direct influence of increased temperatures on precipitation, with greater evaporation and surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of droughts. However, the water holding capacity of the air increases by about 7% per 1 °C warming, leading to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extra tropical rain, or tropical cyclones, fueled by increased moisture, may produce more intense precipitation events (Trenberth 2011). Temperatures in the Yucatan Peninsula are becoming more extreme, with higher temperatures events and for longer periods (Orellana et al. 2009; Mardero et al. 2018).
In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which have been shown to influence precipitation patterns in the Yucatan Peninsula and Calakmul (Neeti et al. 2012). Some years with strong negative anomalies in the area coincide with El Niño events, such as the moderate El Niño events of 1986–1987 and 2003–2004, and a very strong El Niño event in 2014–2015. Another major oscillation affecting the precipitation patterns in the Caribbean region is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a pattern of climate variability which is detected as a fluctuation in sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean, between the equator and Greenland (Kerr 2000; Goly and Teegavarapu 2014).
Advances in climate behavior and prediction science have created significant potential to contribute to improved water resources management practices. Research on rainfall intensity and distribution is crucial both to create infrastructure to reduce risks associated with extreme flood events, and to develop mechanisms to cope with the increasing drought events especially in economic sectors highly related to water availability such as agriculture. In Mexico, climate policy for the agricultural sector has focused on strategies boosting irrigation systems and the use of agricultural inputs such as modified seeds (more resistant to droughts), and farmers have been adapting their agricultural calendar to the changed rainfall patterns (Eakin 2005; Mardero et al. 2014). Researchers working in the Calakmul Reserve (Carrillo-Reyna et al. 2015; Martínez 2016; Pérez-Cortéz et al. 2012) have also called for increased information on precipitation patterns due to the importance of water availability in the aguadas and their role in wildlife distribution.
By addressing changes in the overall precipitation along with changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall events, this research contributes to agricultural management by contributing to the design of agricultural policies focused on farmers’ adaptation to these new environmental conditions, and to conservation and management efforts, offering insights related to water availability and the characteristics and behavior of different animal and vegetable species, both for the Southern Yucatan and tropical landscapes worldwide.
The milpa, also called slash-and-burn farming system, is a complex combination of agricultural practices has enabled the cultivation of up to 87 crops, with rotation sequences that vary by cultural and agro-environmental context (Terán and Rasmussen 1994). This agricultural system consists in cutting, drying, and burning patches of woody vegetation to clear land for agricultural production (Ruthenberg 1980).
Abizaid C, Coomes OT (2004) Land use and forest fallowing dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests of the southern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Land Use Policy 21(1):71–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2003.06.001
Adams RM, Hurd BH, Lenhart S, Leary N (1998) Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Clim Res 11(1):19–30. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr011019
Alayón-Gamboa JA, Ku-Vera JC (2011) Vulnerability of smallholder agriculture in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico. Indian J Tradit Knowl 10(1):125–132
Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321(5895):1481–1484. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787
Allen DE, Singh BP, Dalal RC (2011) Soil health indicators under climate change: a review of current knowledge. In: Singh B, Cowie A, Chan K (eds) Soil health and climate change. Soil biology, vol 29. Springer, Berlin, pp 25–45
Apaydin H, Erpul G, Bayramin I, Gabriels D (2006) Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey. J Hydrol 328(3–4):726–732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.01.019
Aranda M (1990) El jaguar (Panthera onca) en la Reserva de la Biósfera de Calakmul, México: morfometría, hábitos alimentarios y densidad de población. Tesis de maestría, Universidad Nacional Costa Rica
Bouroncle C, Imbach P, Rodríguez-Sánchez B, Medellín C, Martinez-Valle A, Läderach P (2017) Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies. Clim Chang 141(1):123–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1792-0
Camberlin P (2009) Nile basin climates. In: Dumont HJ (ed) The Nile. Monographiae Biologicae, vol 89. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 307–333. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9726-3_16
Carrillo-Reyna N, Reyna-Hurtado R, Schmook B (2015) Abundancia relativa y selección de hábitat de Tapirus bairdii en las reservas de Calakmul y Balam Kú, Campeche, México. Rev Mex Biodiversidad 86(1):202–207. https://doi.org/10.7550/rmb.40247
Cavazos T, Rivas D (2004) Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico. Clim Res 25(3):229–242. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025229
Ceriani L, Verme P (2012) The origins of the Gini index: extracts from Variabilità e Mutabilità (1912) by Corrado Gini. J Econ Inequal 10(3):421–443. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9188-x
Chávez-Tovar JC (2010) Ecología y conservación del jaguar (Panthera onca) y puma (Puma concolor) en la región de Calakmul, y sus implicaciones para la conservación de la Península de Yucatán. (Tesis doctoral). Universidad de Granada, Granada
Chim L (April 6 2017) Calakmul, en crisis por sequía. La Jornada. Retrieved from: https://www.jornada.com.mx/2017/04/06/estados/028n2est
Chou C, Chiang JC, Lan CW, Chung CH, Liao YC, Lee CJ (2013) Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nat Geosci 6(4):263–267
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe CEPAL (2015) Cambio Climático en Centroamérica: impactos potenciales y opciones de política pública. CEPAL, 178 pp. https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/39149-cambio-climatico-centroamerica-impactos-potenciales-opciones-politica-publica
Conde-Álvarez C, Saldaña-Zorrilla S (2007) Cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: impactos, vulnerabilidad y adaptación. Ambiente Desarro 23(2):23–30
Cooley A, Chang H (2017) Precipitation intensity trend detection using hourly and daily observations in Portland, Oregon. Climate 5(1):2–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010010
Cowell FA (2000) Measurement of inequality. In: Handbook of income distribution, vol 1. STICERD, London, pp 87–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0056(00)80005-6
De Luis M, Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Brunetti M, Longares LA (2011) Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946-2005. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11(5):1259–1265. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010010
Di Baldassarre G, Elshamy M, van Griensven A, Soliman E, Kigobe M, Ndomba P, Solomatine D (2011) Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review. Hydrol Sci J 56(2):199–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.557378
Dodd DE, Jolliffe IT (2001) Early detection of the start of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. Int J Climatol 21(10):1251–1262. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.640
Dore MH (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? Environ Int 31(8):1167–1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2005.03.004
Douglas PM, Pagani M, Canuto MA, Brenner M, Hodell DA, Eglinton TI, Curtis JH (2015) Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci 112(18):5607–5612. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1419133112
Dow K, Downing TE (2016) The atlas of climate change: mapping the world’s greatest challenge. Univ of California Press
Eakin H (2005) Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: cases from Central Mexico. World Dev 33(11):1923–1938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.06.005
Easterling DR, Karl TR, Gallo KP, Robinson DA, Trenberth KE, Dai A (2000) Observed climate variability and change of relevance to the biosphere. J Geophys Res 105(D15):20101–20114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900166
Ewert F, Rötter RP, Bindi M, Webber H, Trnka M, Kersebaum KC et al (2015) Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change. Environ Model Softw 72:287–303
FAO (2009) Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security. http://www.fao.org/docs/up/easypol/778/climate-change_impacts_on_agric_food_security_slides_077en.pdf
García-Gil G. (2003) Colonización humana reciente y formación del paisaje agrario en la Reserva de la Biosfera Calakmul, Campeche, México. Tesis doctoral, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México
García-Gil G, Palacio-Prieto JL, Ortiz-Pérez MA (2002) Reconocimiento geomorfológico e hidrográfico de la Reserva de la Biosfera Calakmul, México. Investig Geográficas 48:7–23 http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0188-46112002000200002&lng=es&nrm=iso
Garza-López M, Ortega-Rodríguez JM, Zamudio-Sánchez FJ, López-Toledo JF, Domínguez-Álvarez FA, Saenz-Romero C (2018) Modification of the habitat for Lysiloma latisiliquum. Rev Fitotec Mex 41(2):127–135 https://www.revistafitotecniamexicana.org/documentos/41-2/4a.pdf
Goly A, Teegavarapu RS (2014) Individual and coupled influences of AMO and ENSO on regional precipitation characteristics and extremes. Water Resour Res 50(6):4686–4709
Gurri-García FD, Vallejo-Nieto MI (2007) Vulnerabilidad en campesinos tradicionales y convencionales de Calakmul, Campeche, México. Secuelas del huracán “Isidore”. Estud Antropología Biológica 13(1):449–470 ISSN 1405-5066
Hernández-Huerta A, Sosa VJ, Aranda JM, Bello J (2000) Records of small mammals in the Calakmul biosphere reserve, Yucatán Peninsula. Southwest Nat 45(3):340–344. https://doi.org/10.2307/3672840
Ibarra-Manríquez G, Martínez-Ramos M (2002) Landscape variation of liana communities in a Neotropical rain forest. Plant Ecol 160(1):91–112. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015839400578
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias INIFAP (2017). https://www.gob.mx/inifap
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp. ISNB 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf
IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, 1585 pp. ISBN 978-1-107-05799-1 hardback; 978-1-107-66182-0 paperback. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Frontmatter_FINAL.pdf
Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003) Modern global climate change. Science 302(5651):1719–1723. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1090228
Keggenhoff I, Elizbarashvili M, Amiri-Farahani A, King L (2014) Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over Georgia, 1971–2010. Weather Clim Extremes 4:75–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.05.001
Kerr RA (2000) A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science 288(5473):1984–1985
Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1167–1180
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2000) Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. J Clim 13(21):3760–3788. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3760:CITEIA>2.0.CO;2
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2005) Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J Clim 18(8):1156–1173. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3320.1
Konalapa G, Mishra AK (2016) Three-parameter-based streamflow elasticity model: application to MOPEX basins in the USA at annual and seasonal scales. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 20(6):2545–2556. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2545-2016
Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S (2013) Climate change and agriculture: a review of impacts and adaptations. Environment department papersno. 91. Climate change series. World Bank, Washington, DC, 106 pp. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16616 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO
Lal R (2013) Food security in a changing climate. Ecohydrol Hydrobiol 13(1):8–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2013.03.006
Li J, Wang MH, Ho YS (2011) Trends in research on global climate change: a Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis. Glob Planet Chang 77(1–2):13–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.02.005
Liebmann B, Bladé I, Bond NA, Gochis D, Allured D, Bates GT (2008) Characteristics of North American summertime rainfall with emphasis on the monsoon. J Clim 21(6):1277–1294. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1762.1
Lundell CL, Swallen JR (1934) Preliminary sketch of the phytogeography of the Yucatán Peninsula. Carnegie Institution of Washington publication no. 436, Contributions to American Archaeology II(12): 257-355, Carnegie Institution of Washington, USA
Luo Z, Sun OJ, Ge Q, Xu W, Zheng J (2007) Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment. Ecol Res 22(3):507–514. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-006-0044-6
Mardero S, Nickl E, Schmook B, Schneider L, Rogan J, Christman Z, Lawrence D (2012) Sequías en el sur de la península de Yucatán: análisis de la variabilidad anual y estacional de la precipitación. Investigaciones geográficas, (78):19-33. Available in: http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0188-46112012000200003&lng=es&nrm=iso
Mardero S, Schmook B, Christman Z, Nickl E, Schneider L, Rogan J, Lawrence D (2014) Precipitation variability and adaptation strategies in the southern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico: integrating local knowledge with quantitative analysis. In: Leal Filho W., Alves, F., Caeiro S., Azeiteiro U. (eds) International perspectives on climate change. Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, German, Cham. (pp. 189-201. ISBN 978-331-9044-88-0)
Mardero S, Schmook B, Radel C, Christman Z, Lawrence D, Millones M, Nickl E, Rogan J, Schneider L (2015) Smallholders’ adaptations to droughts and climatic variability in southeastern Mexico. Environ Hazards 14(4):271–288. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2015.1058741
Mardero S, Schmook B, López-Martínez JO, Cicero L, Radel C, Christman Z (2018) The uneven influence of climate trends and agricultural policies on maize production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Land 7(3):1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/land7030080
Marengo JA, Liebmann B, Kousky VE, Filizola NP, Wainer IC (2001) Onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. J Clim 14(5):833–852. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0833:OAEOTR>2.0.CO;2
Martínez WE (2016) Abundancia relativa y ocupación del tapir (Tapirus bairdii) en cuerpos de agua en la Selva Maya. Tesis de maestría, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, San Francisco de Campeche, Campeche
Martínez E, Galindo-Leal C (2002) La vegetación de Calakmul, Campeche, México: clasificación, descripción y distribución. Bol Soc Bot Méx 71:7–32 ISSN 0366-2128
Masaki Y, Hanasaki N, Takahashi K, Hijioka Y (2014) Global-scale analysis on future changes in flow regimes using Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients. Water Resour Res 50(5):4054–4078
Mavromatis T, Stathis D (2011) Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends. Theor Appl Climatol 104(1–2):13–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0320-9
Medina-Elizalde M, Rohling EJ (2012) Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation. Science 335(6071):956–959. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216629
Michiels P, Gabriels D, Hartmann R (1992) Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing monthly rainfall distribution in Spain. Catena 19:43–58
Miranda F (1958) Estudios acerca de la vegetación. In: Beltran E (ed) Los recursos naturales del sureste y su aprovechamiento, tomo II. IMRNAR, México, pp 215–271
Morton JF (2007) The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(50):19680–19685
Mugalavai EM, Kipkorir EC, Raes D, Rao MS (2008) Analysis of rainfall onset, cessation and length of growing season for western Kenya. Agric For Meteorol 148(6–7):1123–1135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.02.013
Naranjo EJ, Bodmer RE (2002) Population ecology and conservation of Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in the Lacandon Forest. Tapir Conserv 11:25–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940082918795558
Neeti N, Rogan J, Christman Z, Eastman JR, Millones M, Schneider L, Nickl E, Schmook B, Turner BLII, Ghimire B (2012) Mapping seasonal trends in vegetation using AVHRR-NDVI time series in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Remote Sens Lett 3(5):433–442. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.616238
Ngongondo C, Xu CY, Gottschalk L, Alemaw B (2011) Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region. Theor Appl Climatol 106(1–2):79–93
O’Farrill G, Calmé S, Gonzalez A (2006) Manilkara zapota: a new record of a species dispersed by tapirs. Tapir Conserv 15(19):32–35
O’Gorman PA (2015) Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr Climate Change Rep 1(2):49–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3
Oliver JE (1980) Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Prof Geogr 32(3):300–309
Onyutha C, Tabari H, Rutkowska A, Nyeko-Ogiramoi P, Willems P (2016) Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5. J Hydro Environ Res 12:31–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2016.03.001
Orellana R, Espadas C, Conde C, Gay C (2009) Atlas escenarios de cambio climático en la Península de Yucatán. Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán (CICY), Mérida
Osborn TJ, Wallace CJ, Harris IC, Melvin TM (2016) Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation. Clim Chang 134(3):353–369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9
Pal I, Anderson BT, Salvucci GD, Gianotti DJ (2013) Shifting seasonality and increasing frequency of precipitation in wet and dry seasons across the US. Geophys Res Lett 40(15):4030–4035. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50760
Parry ML, Carter TR (1989) An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture. Clim Chang 15(1–2):95–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138848
Pérez-Cortéz S, Enríquez PL, Sima-Panti D, Reyna-Hurtado R, Naranjo EJ (2012) Influencia de la disponibilidad de agua en la presencia y abundancia de Tapirus bairdii en la selva de Calakmul, Campeche, México. Rev Mex Biodiversidad 83(3):753–761
Povoa LV, Nery JT (2016) Precintcon: precipitation intensity, concentration and anomaly analysis. R Package Version 2.3.0. Comprehensive R Archive Network, Austria. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=precintcon
Qian YF, Zhang Y, Zheng YQ (2003) Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau snow anomaly in winter and spring on precipitation in China in spring and summer. Arid Meteorol 21(3):1–7
Radel C, Schmook B, McEvoy J, Mendez C, Petrzelka P (2012) Labour migration and gendered agricultural relations: the feminization of agriculture in the ejidal sector of Calakmul, Mexico. J Agrar Chang 12(1):98–119. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2011.00336.x
Rahman AS, Kamruzzama M, Jahan CS, Mazumder QH (2016) Long-term trend analysis of water table using ‘MAKESENS’ model and sustainability of groundwater resources in drought prone Barind area, NW Bangladesh. J Geol Soc India 87(2):179–193
Rajah K, O’Leary T, Turner A, Petrakis G, Leonard M, Westra S (2014) Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 41(24):8887–8894. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062156
Reddy VR, Pachepsky YA (2000) Predicting crop yields under climate change conditions from monthly GCM weather projections. Environ Model Softw 15(1):79–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(99)00011-0
Reyna-Hurtado R, Rojas-Flores E, Tanner GW (2009) Home range and habitat preferences of white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari) in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico. J Mammal 90(5):1199–1209. https://doi.org/10.1644/08-MAMM-A-246.1
Risbey J, Kandlikar M, Dowlatabadi H, Graetz D (1999) Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 4(2):137–165
Rogan J, Schneider L, Christman Z, Millones M, Lawrence D, Schmook B (2011) Hurricane disturbance mapping using MODIS EVI data in the southeastern Yucatán, Mexico. Remote Sensing Letters 2(3):259–267. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.520344
Rosenberg NJ (1992) Adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Clim Chang 21(4):385–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141378
Ruthenberg H (1980) Farmings systems of the tropics. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Salmi T, Maatta A, Anttila P, Airola TR, Amnell T (2002) Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates -the Excel template application MAKESENS. Ilmatieteen laitos, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, pp. 1–35
Sangüesa C, Pizarro R, Ibañez A, Pino J, Rivera D, García-Chevesich P, Ingram B (2018) Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall concentration using the Gini index and PCI. Water 10(2):112–128. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020112
Sarhadi A, Soulis ED (2017) Time-varying extreme rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves in a changing climate. Geophys Res Lett 44(5):2454–2463. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072201
Schmook B, van Vliet N, Radel C, de Jesús M-CM, McCandless S (2013) Persistence of swidden cultivation in the face of globalization: a case study from communities in Calakmul, Mexico. Hum Ecol 41(1):93–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-012-9557-5
Semenov V, Bengtsson L (2002) Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM. Clim Dyn 19(2):123–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4
Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera SIAP (2017) Producción Arícola. SIAP Web.https://www.gob.mx/siap/acciones-y-programas/produccion-agricola-33119
Szwed M (2018) Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 135:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2408-6
Tabari H, Somee BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100(1):132–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.005
Terán S, Rasmussen C (1994) La milpa de los mayas: la agricultura de los mayas prehispánicos y actuales en el noreste de Yucatán (No. F 1435.3. A37. T47)
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47(1):123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953
Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R et al (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, chapter 3. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Valli M, Sree KS, Krishna IVM (2013) Analysis of precipitation concentration index and rainfall prediction in various agro-climatic zones of Andhra Pradesh, India. Int Res J Environ Sci 2(5):53–61
Van Rooy MP (1965) A rainfall anomaly index (RAI), independent of time and space. Notos 14:43–48
Vaughan C, Weis K (1999) Neotropical dry forest wildlife water hole use and management. Rev Biol Trop 47(4):1039–1044
Vester HFM, Lawrence D, Eastman JR, Turner BL II, Calmé S, Dickson R, Pozo C, Sangerman F (2007) Land change in the Southern Yucatan and Calakmul Biosphere Reserve: effects on habitat and biodiversity. Ecol Appl 17(4):989–1003
Vidal-Zepeda R (2005) Las regiones climáticas de México. Colección de Temas Selectos de Geografía de México (1.2. 2). Instituto de Geografía, UNAM. ISBN 970-32-2394-X
Voss R, May W, Roeckner E (2002) Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. Int J Climatol 22(7):755–777. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.757
Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18(3):201–218
Zeng N, Neelin JD, Lau KM, Tucker CJ (1999) Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science 286(5444):1537–1540. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5444.1537
Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z (2009) Observed changes of drought/wetness episodes in the Pearl River basin, China, using the standardized precipitation index and aridity index. Theor Appl Climatol 98(1–2):89–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0095-4
Ziervogel G, Ericksen PJ (2010) Adapting to climate change to sustain food security. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1(4):525–540. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.56
Data for the analysis was provided by the Mexican National Water Commission (CONAGUA).
This research was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) by grant NE/P015379/1 and the Mexican National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT).
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Mardero, S., Schmook, B., Christman, Z. et al. Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 129–144 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03068-4

domain: literature


Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 28 July 2010
The ARC had briefed the department on the new estimate at a Working for Water (WfW) implementation meeting earlier this month. Marais said it had long been obvious there was an under-estimation of the scale of the problem, particularly in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Invasive alien vegetation, including various species of wattle, pine, poplar,weeping willow, gum trees, hakea and prickly pear, among others, pose a serious threat to South Africa’s water supply, as well as the country’sagricultural potential and biodiversity.
If the 20-million hectares of alien invasive vegetation across the country could be condensed into a single area, it would form a dense, impenetrable thicket about twice the size of the Kruger National Park. Marais said that 15 years ago, government had established WfW to tackle the problem of invasive aliens, while at the same time provide skills training and employment for thousands of poor, jobless citizens, particularly in rural areas. In the current financial year, the project had been allocated “a more than R635 million budget”. Asked how long it would take to clear 20-million hectares of alien vegetation, and what this would cost, Marais said a “conservative” estimate was R34 billion over the next 25 years. Left untouched, the alien vegetation would spread at an average rate of one percent a year, threatening water and food security. “This is actually one bit of good news. We initially estimated it was spreading at five percent a year, but the figure now appears to be one percent,” he said.
According to the ARC report, over 600 000 hectares (condensed area) of the Eastern Cape are infested with black, green and silver wattles, as are more than 300 000 hectares in KwaZulu-Natal. The Eastern Cape has also lost over 200 000 hectares to prickly pear, and the same area again to invasive Australian gums. A further 250 000 hectares of KwaZulu-Natal have also been taken over by the North American invader, Chromolaena odorata, more commonly referred to as “paraffin” bush because of the fire hazard it poses. Poplars infest more than 150 000 hectares in the Free State, while prosopsis, better known as mesquite, takes up 350 000 hectares of the Northern Cape. On a national scale, black, green and silver wattles have taken over more than 1.6-million hectares of South Africa; gums occupy 1.4-million hectares; and a million hectares are under invasive pines and poplars (500 000 hectares each).
Other significant alien invasives listed in the report include lantana, syringa, queen of the night cactus, agave, guava, Spanish reed and sesbania. Marais said the department was looking at ways of off-setting the cost of clearing invasive plants, including biological control. “Biological control could reduce the clearing costs by between 10 and 20 percent, assuming such control can reduce the plants’ seed set and expansion. Another possibility is utilising dense stands of alien vegetation for bulk fibre production, or as an energy source. This could further offset costs.”
Land owners also needed to take responsibility for invasive plants on their properties. “According to current environment legislation, the land user is primarily responsible for management of their land, therefore land managers must take responsibility. The [cost] burden cannot be placed on government alone. Land managers must come to the party.” Marais said the department was also examining the cost benefits of clearing land, particularly water catchments.
Surveys showed that clearing invasive alien plants from a watershed could increase the water yield significantly. This extra water could then be sold and the money used to offset the clearing costs.


text:
A new liqueur !
On the 75th anniversary of the Normandy Landings, La Galotiere has created a new product : calvados liqueur “44”.
This product is created with coffee beans, oranges and sugar, steeped in La Galotiere calvados for 44 days. All these ingredients are, of course, organic. This 36 % liqueur can be drunk after dinner, in a cocktail, or evenin hot water.
You can discover and sample this liqueur in our shop.

domain: food


text:
For die exhausting vegans on the market, getting ready an all vegetable meal is as easy as ABC. Add reserved sauce to the skillet together with cornstarch slurry, and prepare dinner stirring regularly until the mixture thickens about 1-2 minutes. With potatoes also you may make a fast recipe similar to it can be baked or boiled and different types of sauces or mayonnaise, or butter can be used as a topping. I take pleasure in cooking and consuming vegan foods but i by no means compromise on the style.
10 easy and scrumptious vegan recipes from all over the world!. This is a fast information, followed by tasty and simple chickpea flour recipes so that you can get pleasure from. Cajun spiced lentils function a delicious protein element in this vegan meal, but what really makes this dish shine is the inexperienced harissa drizzled on top. Marinate the tofu in a scrumptious sauce before grilling it and it will have a tremendous flavour.
Yearly Subscription: Limitless entry to eight,000+ recipes (new recipes added day by day): $19.99 per 12 months. All you want is a sheet pan, food processor, and bowl for this vegan recipe. Be a part of our publication without cost recipes, wholesome residing inspiration, and particular presents. Post your recipe and get notifications when other cooks evaluate and add photographs to it.
Still, when you make an effort many of these vegan recipes are very tasty and highly nutritious. Subscribe to BBC Good Food magazine and get triple-examined recipes delivered to your door, each month. With rich taste due to the sautéed onions and combination of herbs, this is a vegan most important dish that will idiot even probably the most dedicated meat-eaters.
We combine every part you love about Chinese language takeout—the candy, savory, spicy sauce; the tremendous-crispy tofu; and the crisp-tender, perfectly caramelized greens—into one fast vegetarian essential. Numerous forms of noodles, pastas or macaroni might be boiled rapidly and can be combined with varied vegetarian substances. You may very well locate online sellers of vegan food stuffs, which, as they are normally ‘specialists’ within the vegan way of life, should even be capable of give advice on replacement ingredients to your vegan cooking.


text:
Event on 30/05/2014
Public-facing event of the Global Citizenship Commission
A distinguished United Nations committee is visiting Bonn. The Global Citizenship Commission will make an appearance at the Rheinische Friendrich-Wilhelems-University in Bonn on Friday, May 30, 2014.
The Global Citizenship Commission of the United Nations (UN) meets at Bonn University on Friday, May 30 2014. Chaired by the former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, the star-studded committee is instructed by the UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon to revise the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. At a public-facing event in the Aula of the University, the committee will inform the public about its activities offering an opportunity for questions and comments.
The members of the Global Citizenship Commission represent different nations and intellectual fields, such as Politics, Religion, Law and the Sciences. Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, chairs the committee. Among those taking part in the Bonn meeting there are the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed El Baradei, the former president of Ghana John Kufuor, a South African constitutional lawyer Kate O’Regan, and the founder of the international citizenship movement Avaaz, Ricken Patel.
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was announced in 1948 by the General Assembly of the United Nations and currently represents the most fundamental expression of human rights. The long-awaited inaugural meeting of the Global Citizenship Commission took place in Edinburgh in 2013. Upon the invitation of the International Centre for Philosophy NRW, the second working session of the Commission is going to take place in Bonn.
On behalf of the International Centre for Philosophy NRW we are inviting you most cordially to the public facing of the Global Citizenship Commission.
This event is organised in cooperation with the New York University (NYU) and with financial support of the Alexander von Humboldt-Foundation, of the German Centre for Ethics in the Biological Sciences (DRZE) and the Institute for Science and Ethics (IWE).
Here you find the poster.
|Location:||Aula of Bonn University
1. level, lift available
Am Hof 1, 53113 Bonn

domain: news


text:
WFMW – Natural cleaning made easy
Its all very well to buy your cleaning products from places like BEE and Ecostore, but its even better to make your own. Now, I’m not hardcore on this by anymeans, but there are some situations where DIY is so easy and effective, you’d be daft not to.
I know there are lots of flash recipes out there involving exotic ingredients like liquid soap, borax and essential oils, but quite frankly if the recipe has more than 2 ingredients I turn off pretty fast. People like the Worsted Witch make pretty labels for their natural home made cleaners which look pretty darn funky (see above)- but in my house its a bit more basic than that.
In my ‘natural cleaning’ cupboard there is just baking soda, white vinegar and washing soda crystals – which can all be bought easily at the supermarket. But you can do a lot with these 3!
Window cleaner and Stainless steel shiner
Very approximately 1 part white vinegar to 3 parts water. Pop it in an old window cleaner container. Sadly, you can’t use newsprint these days because of the new inks, they don’t polish windows like they used to. But I find a teatowel works fine.
I don’t need to tell you how revolting commercial oven cleaner is. Even the ‘low odour’ ones seem to make the oven stink for a good week afterwards. But this method, with a good measure of elbow grease, works a treat. Dissolve about ¼ cup of washing soda in 1 litre of hot water, in an old spray bottle. Spray on to the oven walls, wait 20 minutes and clean with a dishcloth or a scourer for stubborn stains.
Drain-O and other commercial drain cleaners are seriously hazardous to the planet. The first thing to do is always using a plunger first – its not entirely pleasant but better than getting a whiff of Drain-O. Then, and this is actually fun – pop approx ½ cup of baking soda and ½ cup of ordinary salt down the drain. Then pour into approximately ½ cup of white vinegar. It will make a big fizzy explosion, and the acid it creates will clear the drain. Maybe you should wear a face mask!
We all know this but its worth repeating – baking soda is the best deoderiser. In smelly shoes, in the fridge, in drains, in the nappy bucket … anywhere that is smelling, try some baking soda. Apparently some people even rub it into their underarms instead of deodorant.
If anyone has any other great ideas I’d love to hear them. And to find out what is working for other blog-ladies head over to rocksinmydryer.com

domain: chemistry


text:
Belgium: Musée Royal de l'Afrique Centrale, 2011. Quarto, colour photographs laminated boards.
Located in the south-east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, this is the first illustrated book on the birds of Katanga. A selection of 248 species are illustrated using full colour photographs with details of general distribution, presence and status in Katanga, ecology, breeding and migration, notes, and conservation status. Habitat diversity is also illustrated with 25 photographs.
Price: $120.00 AU

domain: geography


text:
Free Cooking Class: Walnut-Cauliflower Bolognese
Are you yearning for some of your favorite classic foods that are dear to your heart? Try a vegan alternative on an Italian bolognese sauce with a fraction of the fat & calories, but with all the taste & memories. Served with your choice of a gluten-free pasta or, for the grain-free folks, zucchini noodles!
with Venus DeMarco, A Healthy Life Made Simple
in PaTcHwOrKs (Clearwater location)!
Venus’ class is the 1st Wednesday of every month.


text:
This miniature metal fridge from Maileg is just the right touch of vintage for your dollhouse or imaginary house-play. Perfect for storing all your Maileg groceries, this refrigerator is made of metal that is painted a lovely shade of mint green, with a hinged door that really opens, with magnetic closure and frosted shelves inside.
Mice and other accessories are available to buy separately to provide hours of role play.
The quality and detail will really make it a unique and well loved toy / gift and will form part of a special collection which can be handed down for generations.
- A miniature retro fridge in mint with a magnetic lock on the door and 3 frosted shelves
- Made from metal
- Encourages hours of imaginative play
- Designed by Maileg, Denmark
Fridge: 22cm H
We recommend using a damp cloth without chemicals to clean (Don't place directly in water as the metal may rust) Linen can be washed at 30°C, lay flat to dry.
Suitable from 3 years +
“Life is for living, toy is for joy.” We couldn’t agree more with Danish company, Maileg’s mission statement — nor could we be more in love with the toys they produce. Embracing a world of imagination where kings rule the land + circus tents stand tall; the products by Maileg are heartfelt and whimsical. Adding personal touches such as hand-knitted dresses or hand-stitched eyes are a few ways Maileg stands apart from other toy companies. Especially in a world of plastic toys, it’s refreshing to see such a broad selection of soft toys. So, join us as we explore the ‘Maileg World’. You bring the laughter + we’ll bring the cheer.

domain: hobby


text:
Homelessness describes the condition of people without a regular dwelling. People who are homeless are unable or unwilling to acquire and maintain regular, safe, and adequate housing, or lack "fixed, regular, and adequate night-time residence. The legal definition of "homeless" varies from country to country, or among different entities or institutions in the same country or region. The term homeless may also include people whose primary night-time residence is in ahomeless shelter, a warming center, a domestic violence shelter or other ad hoc housing situation. Scenario in Ireland:
Every three years Irish local authorities assess the numbers of homeless people in their area, as part of the Department of Environment, Heritage and LocalGovernment's Assessment of Housing Need. The most recent national figures from this survey show that in 2005 there were 2,399 homeless people in need of housing. This figure includes only those on local authority housing lists who have declared themselves to be homeless. In 2008, the Homeless Agency conducted a survey of homelessness in Dublin. It counted 2366 people homeless in the city, of whom 110 were sleeping rough. Labour TD, Eamon Gilmore recently claimed that over 1,000 young people were homeless in the Greater Dublin area, and according to Roughan MacNamara of Focus Ireland, at least 100 of them are sleeping out on their own. FACTORS LEADING TO HOMELESSNESS
Poverty, caused by many factors including unemployment and underemployment.
Lack of accessible healthcare. People who have some kind of chronic and weakening disease but cannot get healthcare either because they don't have money to afford it or because the government will not give it to them are simply too weak to go and work every day.
Lack of accessible healthcare. People who have some kind of chronic and weakening disease but cannot get healthcare either because they don't have money to afford it or because the government will...
Please join StudyMode to read the full document

domain: sociology


text:
Two-year-old Prince George met US President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama on Friday, when they visited theKensington Palace for an informal dinner with Prince William, Prince Harry and Duchess of Cambridge, Catherine (Kate Middleton).
Dressed in a pajamas and a robe, it appeared the prince was ready for his bedtime.
Handout photo issued by Kensington Palace of Prince George (right) meeting the President of the United States Barack Obama (centre) and First Lady Michelle Obama (behind) at Kensington Palace, London, with Britain’s Prince William Friday April 22, 2016.
US President Barack Obama (2nd right) and Britain’s Prince William (right) while Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge plays with Prince George as he rides a rocking horse on Friday April 22, 2016.
The rocking horse was a gift from the Obamas when he was born. Reports suggest the horse also bears Presidential seal.
The two-year-old royal has already met some of the world’s most famous people in his short life and his cuteness has certainly won many hearts.
The only person missing from the gathering at Kensington Palace was Princess Charlotte.
In this image released by the Royal Mail on Wednesday April 20, 2016, Britain’s Prince George stands on foam blocks during a photo shoot for the Royal Mail in the summer of 2015 in the White Drawing Room at Buckingham Palace in London for a stamp sheet to mark the 90th birthday of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II. The image features four generations of the Royal family, from left, Prince Charles, Queen Elizabeth II, Prince George
and Prince William, the Duke of Cambridge.
This official photograph, released by Buckingham Palace on Wednesday April 20, 2016, to mark her 90th birthday, shows Queen Elizabeth II with her five great-grandchildren and her two youngest grandchildren in the Green Drawing Room, part of Windsor Castle’s semi-State apartments in Windsor England. The children are: James, Viscount Severn, 8-years-old, left, and Lady Louise, 12-years-old, second left, the children of The Earl and Countess of Wessex; Mia Tindall, holding The Queen’s handbag, the two year-old-daughter of Zara and Mike Tindall; Savannah 5- years-old, third right, and Isla Phillips, 3-years-old, right, daughters of The Queen’s eldest grandson Peter Phillips and his wife Autumn; Prince George, 2-years-old, second right, and in The Queen’s arms and in the tradition of Royal portraiture, the youngest great-grandchild, Princess Charlotte, 11-months-old, children of Prince William and Kate Duchess of Cambridge.

domain: celebrity


Glenorchy City Council recently reviewed and updated its Waste Management Strategy.
We are working with the community to achieve our vision for Glenorchy as a clean and healthy city, a city we are proud of, where waste is minimised, and resources are conserved for the future. Council is committed to providing affordable, cost-effective and environmentally sound waste services for the community.
It is anticipated that the current landfill area at the Jackson Street Waste Management Centre will close in 2020. However, Council is currently developing a business case to construct a new cell in the quarry area at Jackson Street that will extend the life of the landfill.
You can also contact our Customer Service Centre on (03) 6216 6800 or email email@example.com.


text:
A 42-YEAR-OLD man will appear in court today charged with “malicious communications” following the murder of teacher Ann Maguire. West Yorkshire Police said Robert Riley, from Port Talbot, South Wales, was charged yesterday and will appear before magistrates in Leeds today.
Riley is the second person to be charged with the offence in the wake of the death of Mrs Maguire, who was stabbed to death in her classroom at Corpus Christi Catholic College, in the city, a week ago.
Jake Newsome, 21, from the Harehills area of Leeds, was released on bail after being charged for the alleged abuse, officers said.
He is due to appear before Leeds Magistrates Court on Wednesday, May 14.
Mrs Maguire died after she was attacked during a Spanish lesson at the school where she had taught for more than 40 years. She was due to retire in September.
The killing is thought to be the first time a teacher has been stabbed to death in a British classroom and the first murder of a teacher in a school since the 1996 Dunblane massacre.
Yesterday, prayers were said for Mrs Maguire and her family.
Deacon Sean Quigley included the family of the 15-year-old boy charged with murdering the 61-year-old in his homily at Corpus Christi Church in Leeds which is attached to the school.
Consoled by messages from around the world
Mr Quigley, a retired teacher at the college who knows the Maguire family, told the congregation: “The school, staff and pupils have been consoled by messages from around the world and by many gifts of flowers, and also of food and books.
“The family of the young man involved also have been consoled in their great distress by the messages of love they have received.”
A 100m-long shrine of floral tributes now connects the church with the school gates.
A book of condolence has also been opened at the cathedral in Leeds for those who want to express their sympathies.
Later today, past and present pupils from Corpus Christi are expected to gather on the field opposite the school to remember Mrs Maguire and mark a week since her death.
• A 15-year-old boy appeared in court last week charged with mother-of-two Mrs Maguire’s murder and was remanded in custody.


text:
Looking for someone to design a logo for a sports business.
Compensation will be through PayPal.
Please PM me for details if interested.
Last edited by themanishere; 04-16-2013 at 04:06 PM.
Collecting: PATRICK WILLIS/Buster Posey
Sent you a PM.
Im looking to trade for Billy Hamilton cards I need and other Reds...
Trying to finish the inserts to this set.
AS a Canadian, it is hard to...

domain: design


CN X313 departs Armstrong with CN 2342, GECX 7344, CN 5709 pull 313 out of town. The 5709 had mechanical issues online and the 2342 would be added online. With CN's "microwave" agreement... (more)
CN C40's 2108 + 2416 lug a rainbow of Prince Rupert imports towards Montreal, Quebec
After a quick crew change, Prince Rupert to Toronto stacks are back on the move behind BCOL C40-8M 4611, CN C44-9W 2696, IC C40-8W 2456 pulling 155 platforms
Leased GECX 2042, part of a 12 unit pack shoves Q112's tailend into Armstrong
With the mercury below -35c / -31F train X313 departs Armstrong after a crew change leaving behind a vapor trail.
Toronto MacMillan, ON - Winnipeg Symington, MB freight train #317 pulls into Armstrong
With some confusion as to what the plan was (to many trains!) the geometry train went into track three at Armstrong yard to wait for some meets/a double over. Eventually the long train would be he... (more)
Vancouver Thornton, BC - Toronto MacMillan, ON freight/autos train #302 flies across the Pitikugsh River behind a pair of IC C44-9W's and 121 cars.
CN 313 departs Ena Lake and is about to duck under the tunnel at mile 130.4
CN Q115 hustles passed the preserved station and caboose in downtown Nakina
A pair of GE's pull a short 313 over the Wabigoon River
CN Q112 crosses the Wabigoon River
Clear of the track at the muddy Lamaune hi-rail takeoff with the section truck, an eastbound intermodal train thunders through
After a good dump of snow, 314 is still running on time with a good 7400' & 16000 tons of train.


text:
Summer nights can never be too long. Especially not if you’re celebrating with the latest Trice addition at volume up. A show stopper and festival explosive, is ‘Dusk’ by Bass King, X-Vertigo and MMX. LA based producers Bass King and X-Vertigo team up, binding their strengths once again. After the success of their ‘Kings’ smash, they quickly follow up with another biggie.
Given a warm welcome on Trice, is their collab with MMX, the mighty ‘Dusk’. This one will be doing its round a long time, we reckon.
Dusk (Original Mix) (05:45)

domain: artistic


Sinn Féin Councillor Kevin Campbell has urged people to attend a commemoration on Saturday to remember IRA Volunteer Tom Williams who was hanged 75 years ago.
Colr. Campbell said: “On September 2, 1942, Óglach Tom Williams (19) faced his execution in Crumlin Road Gaol. Tom, along with his IRA unit, had been imprisoned following the killing of an RUC man. The six man unit, all under the age of 21, were convicted and sentenced to death. However, the collective punishment of the unit was eventually overturned as a result of Tom making an admission to being the leader and accepting full responsibility.
“The five IRA volunteers who had been imprisoned alongside Tom received long sentences, however, they avoided capital punishment. Tom, alone, would ultimately face his executor. It’s important that all these years later we remember Tom and the ultimate sacrifice he made. I would encourage people to come along on this Saturday at 1.00 pm to Free Derry Wall.”
Prior to his hanging, Tom wrote to Derry man Hugh McAteer: “The road to freedom is paved with suffering, hardship and torture; carry on gallant comrades until that certain day.”


text:
It is with deep sadness that we announce the passing of former longtime employee Mei Deng. Mei worked for the MRA from February, 2001 through February, 2016. She leaves her husband and son. Services were held at Weir MacCuish Funeral Home on May 4, 2017.
MRA Mourns Passing of Former Longtime Employee Mei Deng
Monday, May 1, 2017


text:
Stained Concrete is simply one finish option available by Concrete Craft which will bring value and beauty to any home’s outdoor surfaces, both indoors and outdoors. This article is a brief overview of what you should know about stained concrete before making the final choice. Read on to find out more about this beautiful finish.
Stained Concrete is created by using a thin layer of resin, over top of a clear or colored stain. Stain maintains its color, peel, chip scratch. The finished surface may not be translucent. Some types of stains may have a different texture and appearance from what would normally be expected of a stain.
Most staining techniques are designed to make the best of the available colors and textures in order to provide the most appealing, finished concrete finishes. The end result is often an attractive and unique appearance which can enhance the beauty of the home, even though the actual concrete will be the same color as it was when it was installed.
Some types of staining require some type of coating on the surface of the concrete to protect it from stains and damage. This may include a protective layer of polyurethane or epoxy. Other types of stains may not require any sort of protective covering to be applied at all.
There are a number of benefits to staining concrete. A concrete surface that has been stained will have a higher resale value because the finish will stand out, making the home stand out from the crowd. Another advantage is that the stain itself will help to enhance the overall look of the home, creating a more harmonious appearance.
If you decide to have your concrete surface stained, you should always choose a product that is formulated for the type of finish you are wanting to create. If you are trying to achieve a lighter shade, choose a product that is designed to work with darker shades, or vice versa for lighter shades.
Before beginning staining concrete, you should take measurements of the area to be stained and make sure there is no excess material in the surface to obstruct the job. If there is too much material in the surface, the job could take longer than it should. Also, if you are trying to clean the area, you should wear a mask and gloves so that you do not get any type of chemical on your hands while cleaning the stain.
You can have many options when deciding whether or not to have your stained concrete stain in a single color or over a multiple color. The final choice is entirely up to you and depends on the type of stain that you would like to use, how much you are willing to pay and the overall look you are going for. Regardless of the choice of stain that you select, you will find that there are a number of websites online that offer samples so that you can see for yourself the results of the finished product.
If you are trying to stain an existing concrete surface, you should always start by staining the top of the concrete with the stain first. This will give you the ability to see the stain being applied, ensuring that you have no issues that can arise. Once you have the top done, you should then go over it with a fine toothed comb in order to make sure that you have removed any extra material that might not be removed by the toothbrush.
Next, you should then go over the stained area again using the same type of brush in order to make sure that you get as much of the stain as possible. You should then let the stain set overnight before you apply the next coat. and you should reapply the stain before removing any water stains that have become embedded into the concrete.
When you are applying the stain, it is important to allow it time to set, meaning that it will not set until the next morning. after it has dried thoroughly. You should also pay special attention to areas that might be prone to damage, such as cracks or depressions that may be present in the concrete, and if this is the case, you should reapply the stain a few times before removing the first coat.
You should never paint with staining material unless you are sure that the stain will not fade. If you are planning to paint with staining products, you should use a primer before the stains are applied.


Kyocera might not necessarily be brand you associate with high-end smartphones, but when it comes to durable and rugged devices, Kyocera might be a brand worth considering. In fact the company has recently announced their latest handset in the form of the Kyocera Hydro Wave that will be making its way onto T-Mobile and MetroPCS.
With a name like that, we can only assume that it is water-resistant to a certain degree, and it is. The Hydro Wave has been given an IPX5 and IPX7 rating meaning that it is water-resistant, although you should probably not go deep-sea diving with it. It will also have an IP5X certification with a Military Standard 810G which supposed makes the handset durable when it comes to drops or shocks.
In terms of specs, the handset will sport a 5-inch qHD display under the hood, it will be powered by a 1.2GHz quad-core processor. There will be 1GB of RAM accompanying the phone with 8GB of onboard storage expandable via microSD, Bluetooth and LTE connectivity, a 2,300mAh battery, and Android 5.1 running the show.
The handset is currently available from T-Mobile but if you’re a MetroPCS customer, you guys will have to wait until the 27th of July which is when the handset will make its way onto the carrier’s network.


text:
TRINITY — Sunlake returned from a bye week with a dominating 35-7 win against Mitchell on Friday night.
Sunlake (4-0) ran four plays on its first drive and scored to set the tone.
Seahawks quarterback Cameron Stoltz was 9-for-15 with 198 yards and three touchdowns for 45, 52 and 51 yards. He also had a 29-yard touchdown run.
Mike Lopez ran for the other touchdown, going 75 yards on the Seahawks’ last drive to make it 35-0.
Sunlake’s Paul Scott recorded one sack of Spencer Whittaker.
Whittaker did not attempt a pass and the Mustangs’ offense was held to 177 total yards. Mitchell lost two of three fumbles.
Mitchell’s Christian Trinidad came on during the last drive and had two rushes, including a 50-yard touchdown, to give the Mustangs (3-2) a late boost. His other run was for 13 yards.
Freddie Jones blocked a late Sunlake field-goal attempt and returned it 60 yards. But the drive ended with a missed field goal.
Jones rushed for 54 yards and Mordell Holley added 30 for the Mustangs.
Mitchell’s Codi Folsom had five punts for 260 yards.


text:
Agriculture is that the core sector of the Ugandan economy and also the main manager. This sector is the key determinant within the country’s efforts to scale back impoverishment, and attain economic process within the immediate years. Uganda has one among the quickest population expansion rate of around 3.3%, and this itself, is that the principal driver for the rise in consumption of crops in Uganda. Uganda’s Favourable soil conditions and climate have contributed to the country's agricultural success. Most areas of Uganda have usually received much rain. In some years, tiny areas of the southeast and southwest have averaged quite 150 millimetres per month.
According to the analysis, ‘Uganda Agriculture Market Trends, Statistics, Growth, and Forecasts’ The Uganda government has been supporting the agriculture manufacturing with a total of policies, attempting to calm the output and seeking ways in which to make sure the arena sector is growing healthily and sustainably. The Uganda federal government has been extremely corroborative of agriculture for many years, and there’s broad political accord on the necessity for land, labour and tax reform to assist the area reach its potential. Due to corroborative policies, the agriculture sector’s performance has been rising steady in recent years. Uganda keeps its initial rank within the world in terms of farming output, manufacturing giant quantities of rice, wheat, cotton, meat, poultry, eggs and fishery product. The latest strategy imply a lot of struggles to make sure the availability of key farm merchandise, helping the supply-side structural reform and, a lot of significantly, enhancing environmental protection similarly as pollution interference and waste treatment. Despite the speedy development of Uganda’s agriculture sector, issues emerge in relevancya spread of aspects, together with the shrinking cultivatable land, the deteriorating ecological standing of atmosphere owing to the weighty utilization of fertilisers and pesticides, and also the issue of food security. There’s in additiona lot of space to enhance in terms of accelerating the utilization of machinery and advanced technologies within the agriculture sector. The country has created exertions to integrate latest agricultural technologies to enhance the sector’s potency and rise land productivity. The high prices and low profits of agricultural production are the most important internal inhibitors of Uganda’s agriculture sector. They are in addition the first issue limiting the expansion of farmers’ income and resulting in reduction of the labour force in agriculture.
The government has adopted a variety of multi-year policies, like a pledge to double farmer incomes and become self-financing in pulses over an unspecified temporary period. However, reform has to go a lot of deeper, particularly considering the actual fact that within the years to 2050, agriculture is predicted to produce livelihoods for regarding half the rural population, despite current urbanisation within the country.
Consumers within the country are discovering the link between healthy food and their prosperity and switching their alternatives to fruits and vegetables. Additionally to this, with the rising health consciousness, there’s in addition an increasing consumption trend toward sorts of off-season fruits that are sometimes met by rising imports. For crops like potatoes, there’s a recent trend of growing consumption particularly among the middle-income cluster in Uganda. The crops, like apples, citrus, grapes, bananas, litchis, peaches, pineapples, potatoes, tomatoes, onions, sweet corns, beetroots, and avocados are a number of the most important fruits and vegetable crops known with nice market growth potentials within the region throughout the forecast period.
Additionally, the Uganda government has for many years actively supported the agriculture sector through mechanisms like fertiliser subsidies, and relaxed lending conditions, amongst others, permitting farmers to possess a good estimation of their revenues and set up for the next agricultural season consequently. Through a network of public organisations and various programmes and schemes, Uganda’s federal and regional authorities are attempting to protect agricultural producers and boost production.
For More Information, refer to below link:-
Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communications