Short answer: A hot water campervan system provides users with access to hot water while on the road. These systems utilize a combination of propane or electric heating sources and can be installed on various types of campervans.
How to Install a Hot Water System in Your Campervan: A Step-by-Step Guide
Planning a camping trip in your campervan and worried about how you will manage hot water during the trip? Well, fret not! With a little bit of technical knowledge and guidance, installing a hot water system in your campervan can be an easy and cost-effective solution.
Here is your step-by-step guide on how to install a hot water system in your campervan:
Step 1: Assess Your Requirements
Before getting started with the installation process, it’s essential that you assess your hot water requirements. This includes deciding on the capacity of the hot water system that you need based on the number of people using it, frequency of use, and types of activities that you plan to do.
Step 2: Choose the Type of Hot Water System
There are various types of hot water systems available for campervans including gas heaters, electric heaters, diesel heaters or even solar-powered options. Choose a system that suits your needs best based on power source availability.
Step 3: Collect Required Tools & Materials
Gather all essential materials such as plumbing fittings, hoses valves etc. You will need tools such as drill machines drill bits, screws and plug sockets to complete this project.
Step 4: Install Tank and Fittings
Begin by installing the tank at a suitable location – this could be under one of your seats or in an external storage compartment installed by factory standards. Make all necessary holes for required connections; vents to release extra pressure; and secure with bolts/screws if permanent installation.
Next, connect inlet port from fresh-water supply line towards tank ports ensuring no leaks with tight clockwise twist allowing continuous flow.
Install pressure relief valve onto top end point allowing it to overflow when maximum safe pressure limit reached preventing overheating damage before T&P temperature-pressure-relief valve activates itself.
Connect appropriate hoses from outlet port towards cold-water input into chosen device (taps/shower). Ensure there is no restriction to water flow and install appropriate filtration systems.
Connect all relevant electrical power connections safely by ensuring the correct voltage, polarity, and wattage requirements have been met.
Step 5: Run the System
After installation, run the system for testing any leaks. Turn on power supply and allow hot water to fill up the tank. Try out different devices installed through fresh clean water only after reaching optimal temperature as per manufacturer instructions.
Now you’ve got a fully functional campervan with a hot water system that fits your needs specifically! Going for camping on long trips never felt this great, right? Make sure to follow all safety standards and instruction manuals for any appliance or system installed in your vehicle.
Overall, installing a hot water system in your campervan can be an extensive DIY project but certainly worth it. And once you’ve completed this task, you can sit back and enjoy those warm showers even while exploring the most remote camping trails with ease!
Frequently Asked Questions About Hot Water Systems for Campervans: Everything You Need to Know
If you’re someone who loves to travel and roam around freely on the open road, then owning a campervan is surely one of your dreams. However, in order to turn this dream into reality, you need to make sure that your campervan has all the necessary amenities that will provide maximum comfort during your travels. One such amenity is hot water – essential for cooking, cleaning and most importantly taking relaxing showers.
If you are thinking about installing a hot water system in your campervan or motorhome, here are some frequently asked questions that can help you understand everything you need to know:
What type of hot water systems are there?
The two most common types of hot water systems for campervans are gas-powered heaters and electric heaters. Gas-powered heaters use propane or LPG bottles while electric ones require hookups to 12-volt power supplies in order to heat up the water.
Which one is best suited for me?
This depends on your needs. If free camping is a big part of your trip, then gas-power may be more suitable due to its independence from electricity. But if you plan on staying at campsites with electrical hookups more often an electric heater would be easier.
How much do they cost?
The price range of hot water systems varies depending on their features and capacity. Entry-level gas heaters can cost anywhere around $500-$1000 while the more advanced models could be upwards of $2000. Electric heaters range from about for simple immersion elements to over 00 for complex units designed specifically for campervans.
How much capacity do I need?
This depends on how many people will be using it regularly and how often showers will take place. A minimum capacity range would be between 4-10 liters.
Are there any safety concerns involved with installation?
Yes, fitting your own heating system requires some technical know-how as well as local legal regulations so it’s always best to consult a professional in this case.
In conclusion, hot water systems for campervans are a valuable addition to any camper’s trip. Choose the right type and capacity according to your needs and make sure it is installed safely by a professional. With a hot water system, you can enjoy your time on the road while still maintaining the luxuries of home.
The Top 5 Benefits of Having a Hot Water System in Your Campervan
For many avid campers, the thought of living off the land and experiencing the thrill of nature is what draws them to this exciting pastime. However, without proper amenities, roughing it can quickly become more of an inconvenience than a leisurely adventure. One amenity that every bonafide camper should consider investing in is a hot water system for their campervan.
Here are the top five benefits of having a hot water system in your campervan:
1. Hot showers: Let’s face it- hygiene is important, even when camping. With a hot water system in your campervan, you will be able to enjoy all the benefits of modern day conveniences while on the road. Think about how glorious that morning shower would feel after camping out under the stars all night long.
2. Comfort and convenience: Living on the road can be tough at times- especially during colder months or regions with unpredictable weather patterns. With a hot water system installed in your van you’ll have access to all-day comfort no matter what Mother Nature throws at you.
3. Easy meal prep: Nobody likes cold canned soup for dinner but preparing meals over an open fire can become quite tricky. With hot water readily available within your vehicle kitchen setup boiling up some pasta becomes as easy as if you were in your own home kitchen.
4. Increase resale value: A high-quality hot water system internally fitted within your vehicle can significantly increase its market value later down the line when it comes time to sell – or even trade up – helping provide further financing options for newer models
5. Health benefits: Having access to warm water isn’t just luxury – it’s also good for your health! Warm/hot showers help boost circulation which increases blood flow & relaxes stressed muscles after hiking all day or sitting cramped up during longer drives.
In summary, having a hot water system installed in your campervan may seem like just another expense on your already growing list, but when you weigh up how comfortable and functional it can make your camping experience – we believe that it’s a smart investment every serious camper should consider.
Choosing the Right Type of Hot Water System for your Campervan: A Comprehensive Guide
Choosing the right type of hot water system for your campervan is a crucial decision that all campers must make. It’s a decision that can make or break your camping experience and have long-lasting effects on your journey. After all, there’s nothing better than waking up to a hot shower before hitting the road.
Campervans are designed to immerse travelers in nature while still providing basic amenities like plumbing, electricity, and heating. Hot water systems are critical components of this setup, as they not only provide hot showers but also offer clean dishwashing capabilities. Therefore, it’s essential to get one that suits your needs and requirements.
There are different types of campervan hot water systems in the market today, and selecting the perfect one can be overwhelming. But worry not! This comprehensive guide will help you select the best hot water system for your campervan.
1) Tankless Water Heaters
These heaters use propane or natural gas to heat cold water directly from the source without storing it within a tank. They’re an excellent option if you’re conscious about conserving space, as they take up minimal interior room.
Moreover, they’ll save you money on fuel charges due to their efficiency as no energy is lost through heating unnecessary amounts of stored water. They’re environmentally friendly making them ideal for conscious green travelers.
2) Storage Water Heaters
Storage heaters come with tanks that store already heated water until required by users. They operate when cold freshwater enters through pipes to replace used-up heated water which gets expelled out via another pipe.
Though they occupy more interior space than tankless ones, storage heaters come in larger sizes – guaranteeing extended periods of usage without constant refilling compared with tank-less models.
3) Solar Hot Water Systems
Solar-powered hot water heaters use solar energy by absorbing sunlight through the panels installed on the roof. It’s an environmental-friendly choice, and costs less in fuel consumption. These systems are popular among travelers who value cleanliness and sustainable living.
Choosing the right hot water system for your campervan is subjective to personal preferences and travel needs. Consider factors like availability of plumbing connections, interior space availability, power source availability, and pricing.
As you work down your list of requirements, weigh the pros and cons between each model before arriving at a suitable choice. After all, it’s a long-lasting decision that will play a significant role in how comfortable (or uncomfortable) your camping journey ends up being!
Common Problems with Hot Water Systems in Campervans and How to Fix Them
When you’re out on the road in your campervan, it’s important that your hot water system is functioning properly. After all, nothing beats a nice hot shower to start or end your day of adventure. However, just like with any other type of machinery, problems can arise with your hot water system in your campervan. These issues might seem daunting at first glance but don’t worry; most hot water system problems are fixable and can be done without professional help.
Here are some of the most common issues people run into with their campervan hot water systems and how to fix them.
1) Water not heating up – The most common problem people face is when their hot water system is no longer heating up. Before anything else, you should check whether gas or electricity is reaching the unit and if there’s any obvious damage or corrosion around the pipework and burner injectors. If everything seems normal but still no heat, flushing out your tank may help. Limescale buildup often occurs inside older tanks that get little attention or use over time; this insulates the interior surface from direct contact with the element as well as affecting performance.
2) Leaking tank – A leaking tank can cause damage to both your campervan and surrounding areas due to flooding so it’s vital to fix this issue as soon as possible. After checking for visible cracks or holes, Don’t forget to confirm other causes such as faulty pressure relief valves—these could make it look like a leak when actually steam has released during rapid changes in temperature.
3) Malfunctioning Taps – A faulty tap might become stiff/difficult to adjust temperature control, leaks persistently or flop down by itself causing splashes everywhere which will make you annoyed especially when washing dishes/face/hair! Replacing sink faucet cartridge will solve those problems in taps running smooth again instantaneously!
4) Clogged pipes – This isn’t something you’ll necessarily notice until the system has come to a standstill so it’s good to keep a close eye after quite some time of using. This can occur in gray water pipes that are flushing out from your shower, sinks or toilet and leads to blockages preventing onsite waste management, followed by nasty smells! Regular emptying/treating of tanks (even adding some both natural and chemical liquids/ substances) will prevent debris sticking to pipes causing clogs.
By keeping an eye out for these common problems and learning how to fix them yourself, you can ensure that your hot water system remains functional in your campervan during those important trips away from home. Most importantly, prevention is always better than cure – regular maintenance checks can save a lot of money in the long run instead of waiting for things to go wrong! A handy tip is at least checking for leaks and flush/disinfect systems before commencing any long trips 🙂
The first thing you need to do is ensure your RV’s hot water system is designed to operate efficiently. An efficient hot water system will not only save energy but also extend the lifespan of your system. To achieve this, have a professional inspect and test the pressure relief valve and flush out any sediment build-up found inside the tank annually.
Next up is to reduce any excess strain on your RV’s hot water heater. This means being mindful of how much hot water you use at once and reducing it if necessary. Try taking short showers instead of long ones or washing dishes in batches rather than all at once.
Another tip for maintaining your hot water system while travelling is to keep it properly sanitized. This means draining the tank regularly as well as cleaning it with a solution that inhibits bacterial growth. A mixture of hydrogen peroxide and vinegar works well for cleaning out any bacteria-laden deposits.
Investing in quality components such as high-grade anode rods will help protect against corrosion inside the tank which can eat away at parts over time leading to failures and leaks.
Finally, always use good quality propane or gas when heating up your RV’s hot water supply- using low-quality units could cause issues leading to breakdowns or explosions which no-one wants especially when taking part in outdoor camping activities!
Maintaining a healthy hot-water set-up is essential when traveling by RV, so we hope these tips will help keep yours operating smoothly throughout every trip!
Table with useful data:
|Hot water system||A system for heating water in the camper van|
|Water tank||A tank for storing water for the hot water system|
|Water pump||A device for pushing water through the hot water system|
|Hose connections||Connectors for attaching the hot water system to an external water source|
|Thermostat||A device for regulating the temperature of the hot water|
|Circuit breaker||A safety device for protecting the hot water system from electrical overload|
Information from an expert: As someone who has spent countless hours traveling in a campervan, I highly recommend investing in a hot water system for your vehicle. Not only does it provide the luxury of hot showers, but it also allows you to wash dishes and clean with ease. There are various options available on the market, including propane and electric systems. Consider your needs and budget before making a decision, but trust me when I say that having hot water on the road will greatly enhance your overall experience.
The first hot water campervan was invented in the early 1960s by German engineer Helmut Knaus, who designed and built a heating system that utilized both gas and electricity to heat water for showering and other purposes on board.


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Lots of companies are doing great new things with solar power. Boats that run on solar power are starting to become feasible. Think of all the advantages: no fumes from the fuel, less engine noise, no fuel stops or fuel expense! Just think about all those locales where there’s nothing but endless sunshine—potential fuel for your nearly endless adventure.
We’re getting there: a company caled Planet Solar, based in Germany, has developed a solar-powered catamaran that aims to circumnavigate the globe using nothing but the sun’s rays for power. It has more than 500 square meters of solar modules. Apparently the biggest challenges of this project has been to store enough energy so that the boat can keep running after dark. The team has overcome this with state of the art lithium ion batteries which weigh around 11 tons.
So that means, there are weight problems too. To minimise consumption of energy, the team used the latest in lightweight construction technology. Carbon fiber is employed extensively in the vessel; it has excellent strength and very low weight, which made it the perfect material.
The boat has four electric motors that have a maximum output of 120 kilowatts. It uses two large propellers for motion and steering. The propellers are also made of carbon fiber and are positioned at the end of each of the boat’s 2 floats. Of course, each propeller can be independently steered. The maximum speed of this vessel is 14 knots.
The boat is virtually silent, and of course, non polluting. Going around the globe is expected to take 160 days. The team is stopping at several ports near the equator to do some outreach and develop a larger, international audience.
The team hopes to set sail in early 2011. We wish them the best, this is a pretty cool undertaking!

domain: design


Here at Incognito, we’ve made it our goal to lead the charge for constant improvement. I’m happy to report that 2015 has been a year of much success. Here are some highlights from the year:
Virtual Customer Premises Equipment (vCPE)
Virtualization of network functions and customer premises equipment (CPE) was at the forefront of nearly every industry trade show this year. People are excited, and they have good reason to be. The simple idea of abstracting network functions from a piece of hardware and giving complete control through an operator’s service cloud has extraordinary implications for providers throughout the world. The Incognito team has been working hard to develop and implement robust vCPE solutions that capture this concept to not only reduce operational expenses on the provider but to enable a better end-user experience for subscribers. Stay tuned for more updates about this stirring trend that we’re sure to hear a lot more about in 2016.
Enabling Emerging Access Technologies
The subscriber demand for faster speeds and better service experiences has brought on a new wave of access technologies within the industry. Gigabit-per-second fiber optics has proliferated in both major and minor markets due to its numerous benefits and relatively inexpensive deployment costs. But with new access technology, comes new system requirements. Operators must consider best practices for every aspect of service activation and fulfillment, and they can’t forget about the operational savings potential gained by automated B/OSS integration (and the inevitable transition to an IPv6 world). With the right software at their disposal, service providers can ensure that their subscribers redeem the full advantages of the speed and quality that these new network access technologies bring — while continuing to reduce the costs required to enable them.
Constantly Improving Subscriber QoE
As usual, enhancing subscriber quality of experience (QoE) remains one of the single most important topics within the industry. It’s what keeps revenues high for every single communication service provider around the world. This is why so much of our time is spent researching, developing, and deploying solutions that make sure every subscriber receives the best end-to-end service experience possible. This means ensuring rapid automatic activation and fulfillment of services, reliable service speed and quality, fast issue resolution, minimal service interruption during device and system updates, and most importantly, a personalized service experience for every one of the unique users on a provider’s network.
All in all, it’s been a fantastic and fast-paced year. I’m certain 2016 is set to bring us many new exciting and interesting industry developments. As usual, we will strive to stay ahead of the pack.


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In our afternoon reading: reviews of books by Gus Moreno and Jay Caspian Kang, an interview with Rax King, and more.
In our afternoon reading: interviews with YZ Chin and Jen Craig, a look at Don DeLillo’s work for film, and more.
Afternoon Bites: Tracy K. Smith Interviewed, Madeleine Watts, Longform Editions, Vendela Vida, and More
In our afternoon reading: an interview with Tracy K. Smith, a look inside Longform Editions, and more.
In our afternoon reading: thoughts on Bryan Washington’s novel, a Shy Watson short story, and more.
Afternoon Bites: Caitlin Horrocks, “White Noise” on Screen, Nnedi Okorafor, Filmmakers’ Memoirs, and More
In our afternoon reading: an interview with Caitlin Horrocks, great memoirs by filmmakers, and more.
In our weekend reading: an interview with Alex Ross, exploring James Baldwin’s record collection, and more.
In our weekend reading: thoughts on Don DeLillo’s new book, the best debuts of the year, and more.
Morning Bites: Jeremy Robert Johnson, Paul Tremblay Fiction, Karen Tei Yamashita, Claire Cronin Interviewed, and More
In our morning reading: thoughts on Jeremy Robert Johnson’s new novel, an interview with Claire Cronin, and more.

domain: literature


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How do you put a leave of absence on a resume?
If you don’t want to disclose your illness, simply write Medical Leave of Absence and include the dates.
Is stay at home mom and occupation?
A stay at home mom is not a job – sorry, but to the point. Years ago the term homemaker was used.
How do stay at home moms survive?
Here are 8 survival tips for stay at home moms:Make a plan the night before. Get out of the house. If it’s free, you should be there. Don’t be afraid to give out your number. Exercise. Do something for yourself once per week (at least). Break the rules. Make the time you spend with your kids count.
Why are stay at home moms looked down upon?
Many other moms who live like she does answered that it is common for people to look down on stay at home moms. They are jealous basically that they don’t have the luxury of staying at home. like they do. They must work to keep money flowing in to their bank accounts, which means less time with their children.
Do stay at home moms have it easy?
So, no… of course being a stay-at-home-mom isn’t actually EASY. Being a parent is hard work. And being at home with the little ragamuffins and away from regular adult interaction all day is even more difficult. Then pile on taking care of everything that goes into running a household.

domain: sociology


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On Saturday (May 9) afternoon, multiple blasts took place outside a girl’s school in Kabul in Afghanistan, killing over 58 people and wounding around 150 victims.
As per reports, the terror began with a car bomb explosion outside the premises of Sayed-ul-Shuhada High School, followed by two rocket attacks. While speaking about the matter, the Interior Ministry of Afghanistan said that there were a total of 3 explosions, including a car bomb attack and 2 IED blasts. The incident took place when the students were leaving home from school.
Ibrahim, a teacher at the Sayed-ul-Shuhada High School informed that the majority of the victims of the terror attack were young girls. Interior Ministry spokesman Tariq Ayan has expressed fears that the death toll might increase in the terror attack. As of now, no terror group has claimed responsibility for the dastardly attack. Reportedly, the attack took place in the Shia Muslim-dominated area of Dasht-e-Barchi, which was earlier been targetted by radical extremist outfit ISIS.
Afghan President condemns terror attack, blames Taliban
The incident was also condemned by the diplomatic mission in Kabul and the Afghanistan government. On Saturday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blamed the terror attack on the Taliban extremists in Afghanistan. However, the radical Islamist group has instead ‘condemnded’ the attack on civilians in the country. Reportedly, the family members of the victims have pinned the blame on the Afghan government and Western powers.
Family members of victims queue up outside morgues and hospitals
It was found that family members of the deceased were still collecting the dead bodies from the morgue while others have gathered outside the hospital in search of missing victims. One Mohammed Reza Ali, who had been helping the victims’ families remarked, “The entire night we carried bodies of young girls and boys to a graveyard and prayed for everyone wounded in the attack…Why not just kill all of us to put an end to this war?”

domain: news


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Mercedes-Benz is accelerating the Cloud transformation of its complete aftersales applications. The focus is on core business applications, from pricing and contract management to warranty and parts trading. A consolidated Cloud platform will drive the transformation process both technologically and structurally.
Deloitte designs, builds, operates and optimizes the platform based on a model where the hyperscaler, platform team and application teams share responsibilities. The platform is planned for three entities. A high-performing agile organization based on the SAFe framework will promote effective collaboration.
The MVP was successfully completed after six weeks, with full focus on the organizational setup and a “best-of-breed" architecture. Within the first year, more than ten applications were newly implemented or seamlessly migrated to the platform.


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A newspaper may be the first place that a research study in psychology is widely reported. The formal report on a study (as an "original article" in a scholarly journal) takes longer to be published. Searches in the following databases will pull up results from the science section and general news section of major newspapers, as well as any other part of the newspaper that mentions a particular study.
See a full list of available News sources at the University Libraries, including contemporary and historical newspapers.
In searching newspaper databases, it is easy to get inundated with results. If possible, search for words associated with a specific event, person, trend, or even a slang phrase rather than general keywords. For example, instead of "psychology research," try "sleep deprivation and memory." If you are unfamiliar with a topic, start with a general search and then redo the search when you discover the names of specific people and events associated with it.

domain: library


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After the news last month that Crafton Work started on game project An unnamed title based on a well-known Korean fantasy book The bird that drinks tearsKrafton revealed a trailer for a new visual concept to show what fans can expect from upcoming IP-based entertainment projects. The visualization project is set to guide the aesthetic and tonal directions of several multimedia projects based on The Bird That Drinks Tears, including a graphic novel and animated film, as well as an untitled game project.
Crafton is working with famous Hollywood artists for the unnamed game
Ian McCaig and crafton Windless Team They have been collaborating closely since 2021 to bring the book’s surroundings and characters to life. Later in 2022, the results of that partnership will be released in art book form. The bird that drinks tears It will also be the subject of a graphic novel to be published in 2023.
Finally, Krafton is still actively developing an unnamed video game project based on the book. In an effort to continue recruiting elite talent from around the world to support the realization of its ambitious vision, Krafton has just created the game’s official website.
Those interested in joining the game project development team or who would like to learn more about The Bird That Drinks Tears can visit the game website Official Website over here.
What do you think of the visual concept trailer that Crafton revealed due to the unnamed game title based on the popular Korean novel The Bird That Drinks Tears? Let us know in the comments below!


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- 2,99 €
Beschreibung des Verlags
He wasn't supposed to fall in love with his own creation…
Innocent yet curious, necromancer Victor Frankenstein has overcome his father's twisted legacy and made a place for himself reanimating departed pets. Despite the laws against resurrecting humans, Frankenstein uses his magical ability to restore life to a handsome young man.
Unfortunately, his creature is a wanted criminal and soon so is Frankenstein. Desperate, he turns to his good friend, Adelaide de Tourmaline, who agrees to help—at a price. Adelaide wants to transform his creature into a woman to trick those in high society who have snubbed her.
Training the intriguing Loren to pass as a woman puts Frankenstein in close contact, stirring feelings he has no idea how to manage. Torn between letting his creature go and keeping him near, Frankenstein tries to remain detached but discovers too late there is no logic to love. When his desire to protect his creature overshadows his own survival instinct, Frankenstein puts both their lives on the line. Will they survive an even deeper transformation or fall victim to the powerful forces of nature?
This M/M paranormal steampunkish mashup of Frankenstein and My Fair Lady contains a dashing necromancer, a crossdressing criminal, and plenty of magic and mayhem before a surprising HEA. 29,000 words or 116 pages.

domain: artistic


What's the Solution to Increasing Global Water Scarcity?
You often hear people say that climate change and rising populations are leading to water scarcity. That’s true, but it’s only part of the story.
The vast majority of water usage in developed countries isn’t from household consumption (only 12%), but rather from agriculture, manufacturing, and other industrial activity.
The textile factory that makes your clothes, for example, uses more than 650 gallons of water to make one shirt. The cars we drive, the smartphones that connect us, the almonds we eat, and the paper we use in school all require surprising amounts of water. And these products are often made in areas facing the greatest water challenges, which means that water challenges in one part of the world have an impact in another.
By 2025, more than half of the global population will live in water stressed areas. Water scarcity poses a danger to human health, economic growth and living standards, making water scarcity both a global and local problem. However, there are political, financial, and technological solutions.
For instance, incentives to encourage the development of water reuse projects, and policies to remove or reduce barriers to adopting water reuse technology, can help advance water sustainability.
The benefits of water reuse
Water recycling is paving the way for a more resilient water supply. And it manifests itself in so many ways.
When an industrial facility uses water, it usually treats that wastewater to relevant local standards and discharges it into a local waterway. But what if that facility recycled and reused the water before finally treating and discharging it to the environment
Industrial facilities and data centers - both of which are major water users - can treat their wastewater to a quality appropriate for use as cooling tower water or boiler feedwater.
In the island city-state of Singapore, a closed loop process that recycles wastewater streams is increasingly being used in the manufacturing processes for semiconductors, which support industries vital to the entire economy.
And in southern California, partially treated municipal wastewater is being used for landscaping and agricultural irrigation. Water reuse is the single most promising solution to water scarcity, and the most sustainable strategy to fulfill our water needs.
Because, while a rising population, increased industrialization, and climate change are leading to global water scarcity, it doesn’t have to be that way. Nearly every water challenge we face has a solution that supports our way of life.
To learn more about water reuse, visit https://www.watertechnologies.com/waterreuse


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Original Research ARTICLE
A Predicting Nomogram for Mortality in Patients With COVID-19
- 1Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
- 2Department of Hematology, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- 3Department of Joint Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
- 4Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Background: The global COVID-19 epidemic remains severe, with the cumulative global death toll reaching more than 207,170 as of May 2, 2020 (1).
Purpose: Our research objective is to establish a reliable nomogram to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients. The nomogram can help us distinguish between patients who are at high risk of death and need close attention.
Patients and Methods: For the single-center retrospective study, we collected 21 cases of patients who died in the critical illness area of the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, from February 9 to March 10. Additionally, we selected 99 patients discharged during this period for analysis. The nomogram was constructed to predict the mortality for COVID-19 patients using the primary group of 120 patients and was validated using an independent cohort of 84 patients. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to construct the prediction model. The nomogram was evaluated for calibration, differentiation, and clinical usefulness.
Results: The predictors included in the nomogram were c-reactive protein, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI. The areas under the curves of the nomogram were 0.988 (95% CI: 0.972–1.000) and 0.956 (95% CI, 0.874–1.000) in the primary and validation groups, respectively. Decision curve analysis suggests that the nomogram may have clinical usefulness.
Conclusion: This study provides a nomogram containing c-reactive protein, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI that can be conveniently used to predict individual mortality in COVID-19 patients. Next, we will collect as many cases as possible from multiple centers to build a more reliable nomogram to predict mortality for COVID-19 patients.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei province, in December 2019, it has had a major impact on people's lives, health, and property safety. It has rapidly expanded to 34 provincial divisions of China (2–4). As of April 28, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases in Wuhan has reached 68,128, accounting for 80.75% of the total number of confirmed cases in China, and 4,512 people have died in Wuhan, accounting for 97.18% of the total number of deaths in China (5).
SARS-CoV-2 is a binuclear virus that has a wide clinical spectrum of infection (6–8). In the past 2 months, only a few studies have analyzed prognostic factors for death, with repeated emphasis on factors such as age, lymphocytosis, leukocytosis, and elevated ALT (7). Thus, some of these potential prognostic factors need further validation, and a scoring system that accurately predicts the possible mortality risk is needed. Nomograms are used for multiple indicators to diagnose or predict disease onset or progression, making prognostic model results easier to read. Therefore, nomograms have been gradually applied in medical research and clinical practice (9, 10).
Here, we randomly selected some patients with definite clinical outcome (death or discharge) who had been admitted to the critical care unit of the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, as of March 10, 2020 (11). The aim of our study was to establish a nomogram that incorporated demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory results to predict individual mortality in COVID-19 patients.
Materials and Methods
We selected COVID-19 patients admitted to the critical illness area of the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, from February 9, 2020, to March 10, 2020.
Patients were enrolled in this cohort if they: (1) were more than 18 years old; (2) were diagnosed with COVID-19 by multiplex real-time RT-PCR; (3) had complete clinical records of medical history and laboratory results. Patients were excluded if they: (1) were suspected with COVID-19; (2) had incomplete clinical records of medical history and laboratory results.
We collected demographics, comorbidities, routine laboratory tests, immunological indicators, radiological images, and inpatient treatments (12). For each patient, the baseline characters were screened: gender, age, leukocytes, platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), CURB-65 score, PaO2/FiO2, interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-2R (IL-2R), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), calcitonin, c-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), d-dimer, fibrinogen, history of hypertension, heart failure, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes, cough, expectoration, diarrhea, shortness of breath, body temperature above 38°C, and X-ray or CT findings.
Construction of the Nomogram
We used the chi-square test for univariate analysis. Multivariable regression models were developed by incorporating meaningful factors in univariate analyses. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors in the primary cohort (13). Then we construct a nomogram on the basis of the multivariate logistic regression model.
Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed using descriptive methods, with standard summary statistics including the median, interquartile range (IQR), and proportions. Categorical variables were processed by Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests, as appropriate. We tested the accuracy of the nomograms by discrimination and calibration both in the primary and the validation cohort. We used the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess the discriminative ability of the nomogram and then assessed the area under the curve (AUC) (14, 15). Calibration curves were used to compare the association between actual outcomes and predicted probabilities (16). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed by calculating the net benefits for a range of threshold probabilities to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram (17, 18). Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 23 (IBM, Chicago, IL, USA) and R version 3.4.4. All statistical tests were two-tailed, and a P < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.
Between February 9, 2020, and March 10, 2020, from more than 600 patients in the critical illness area of the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, 120 cases were selected for inclusion in the study by means of a random number table. The average age of the 120 patients was 62.16 years old, and there were 50 females and 70 males (19). The majority of the patients were over 60 years old (69.20%). Among the 120 cases, 90 (75.0%) developed cough symptoms with or without expectoration, 62 (51.7%) had high fever (≥38°C), 68 (56.7%) had mild shortness of breath, and 15 (12.5%) developed diarrhea. The vast majority of patients exhibited bilateral invasion in chest X-ray and CT, mostly with a patchy and ground-glass appearance (Table 1).
Independent Prognostic Factors
We used univariate and multivariate analyses to identify the prognostic factors (20, 21). The univariate analysis revealed that age (p = 0.001), Male/Female (p = 0.021), WBC (p = 0.001), NLR (p = 0.000), PCT (p = 0.000), CRP (p = 0.000), LDH (p = 0.000), PaO2/FiO2 (p = 0.000), Serum calcium (p = 0.307), cTnI (p = 0.000), BNP (p = 0.000), CURB-65 (p = 0.000), IL-2R (p = 0.000), IL-6 (p = 0.000), IL-8 (p = 0.043), IL-10 (p = 0.001), TNF-α (p = 0.01), D-dimer (p = 0.003), and Hypertension (p = 0.008) were significant prognostic factors. The multivariate analysis revealed that CRP (p = 0.004), PaO2/FiO2 (p = 0.002), and cTnI (p = 0.016) were independent prognostic factors for predicting the mortality of COVID-19 patients (22).
Development and Validation of a Nomogram
Multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that CRP, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI were independent predictors (Table 2). The model with three independent predictors is established and represented by a nomogram (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Nomogram predicting mortality for COVID-19 patients with three available factors: CRP, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI.
We predicted the probability of death in patients with COVID-19 by calculating the sum of points in the nomogram corresponding to patient characteristics. Regarding the clinical application of this nomogram, we assumed that, if a patient's CRP was 20 mg/L, the PaO2/FiO2 was 350, and the cTnI was increased, then the corresponding score of this patient was 3+33+26, a total of 62 points, so the corresponding risk of death of this patient was between 0.001 and 0.01, and this patient was relatively safe.
The AUC for the prediction nomogram was 0.988, 95% CI, 0.972–1.000 (23). The AUC for CRP was 0.910. The AUC for PaO2/FiO2 was 0.942. The AUC for cTnI was 0.737. The nomogram decision curve analysis is shown in Figure 2. The calibration curve of the nomogram for the probability of mortality demonstrated good agreement between prediction and observation in the primary cohort (Figure 2) (24). The decision curve showed that if the threshold probability of a patient or doctor is >0%, using the nomogram to predict the mortality for COVID-19 patients adds more benefit. Within this range, net benefit was comparable, with several overlaps, on the basis of the nomogram (25).
Figure 2. From left to right: ROC curves of the nomogram and the three factors; calibration curve of the nomogram in the cohort; decision curve analysis for the nomogram. The y-axis measures the net benefit. The red line represents the nomogram. The gray line represents the assumption that all patients have died. The thin black link represents the assumption that no patients have died. The net benefit was calculated by subtracting the proportion of all patients who are false positive from the proportion who are true positive, weighting by the relative harm of forgoing treatment compared with the negative consequences of unnecessary treatment.
Validation was performed by using another 84 COVID-19 patients. In the validation cohort, the independent risk factors included in the nomogram were examined. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.956 (95% CI: 0.874–1.000). Figure 3 shows that the calibration plot for the probability of mortality demonstrated good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation.
Figure 3. From left to right: ROC curves of the Nomogram and the three factors; calibration curve of the nomogram in the cohort; decision curve analysis for the nomogram.
Since 2003, coronavirus has caused a number of major public health events (26, 27). Generally, it was not until the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Guangdong, China, in 2002 and 2003 that the coronavirus was found to be highly pathogenic to humans. Another highly pathogenic coronavirus is the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus, which emerged in 2012 in Middle Eastern countries (28–31). COVID-19 is another highly pathogenic coronavirus that has been added to human history. Although COVID-19 has a mortality rate of <3% compared to SARS (9.6%) and MERS (34%), its effects remain extremely sudden and devastating (32, 33).
Previous studies have shown that coronaviruses can cause respiratory and intestinal infections (34). According to recent reports, the most common symptoms of COVID-19 patients are fever, cough, myalgia, and fatigue, while the less common are expectoration, hemoptysis, and diarrhea (35–39). Most patients have mild symptoms and good prognosis. Mild patients may have only a low fever and mild weakness, with no obvious signs of pneumonia (40). In the late stage of infection, a variety of complications occur in critically ill patients, including ARDS, septic shock, refractory metabolic acidosis, acute myocardial injury, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and even death (5, 6). Therefore, early diagnosis and early assessment of the patient's prognosis are crucial for controlling the outbreak.
Corticosteroids were used extensively during the outbreaks of severe SARS and MERS and are being applied in COVID-19 patients. Corticosteroids suppress inflammation in the lungs but also inhibit immune responses and pathogen clearance at the same time (41). The clinical benefit of corticosteroids in COVID-19 needs further clinical trials to confirm (42, 43).
In previous studies, several prognostic models have been developed. For example, the NLR was the most effective prognostic factor affecting prognosis for severe COVID-19 patients (44).
In our study, this nomogram based on three variables, CRP, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI, can provide a more accurate assessment and prediction of mortality at admission for COVID-19 patients. If patients with high mortality rates are properly and promptly identified, they should be more likely to benefit from nutritional support in nursing care and close attention in clinical care, which will ultimately have a positive impact on their recovery (45, 46).
The variables in the nomogram we constructed were easily accessible from routine clinical work. As a result, clinicians can use this simple, intuitive predictive tool to draw a few lines in a few seconds to make a quick assessment of a patient's prognosis with no computational difficulty. Additionally, our model can help clinical workers rationally allocate medical resources to reduce the fatality rate of COVID-19 when medical resources are scarce.
There are still some limitations to our study. First, the study was at a single center with a small sample, and the next step is to include as many cases as possible from multiple centers to build a more reliable predicting nomogram for mortality in COVID-19 patients. Second, we excluded patients whose case data were incomplete, which could have resulted in selection bias.
To sum up, to better identify the prognosis of COVID-19 patients, identify severe patients as early as possible, improve the cure rate, and reduce the fatality rate, we constructed a nomogram based on 120 patients to predict mortality. The proposed nomogram considered three independent risk factors, namely, CRP, PaO2/FiO2, and cTnI. We have confirmed that this nomogram has excellent discrimination and clinical availability.
Data Availability Statement
The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.
The studies involving human participants were reviewed and approved by Medical ethics committee of affiliated hospital of Qingdao university. The ethics committee waived the requirement of written informed consent for participation. Written informed consent was obtained from the individual(s) for the publication of any potentially identifiable images or data included in this article.
DP: data analysis and visualization. DP, DC, YC, and CH: writing original draft. FZ, TX, and WY: review and editing. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.
This work was supported by Qingdao City Science and Technology Special Fund No.20-4-1-5-nsh.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Thanks to the medical workers who have contributed to the epidemic and those in all industries involved in the prevention and control of the epidemic. Finally, we pay tribute to our patients.
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Keywords: nomogram, predict, mortality, COVID-19, patients
Citation: Pan D, Cheng D, Cao Y, Hu C, Zou F, Yu W and Xu T (2020) A Predicting Nomogram for Mortality in Patients With COVID-19. Front. Public Health 8:461. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00461
Received: 12 May 2020; Accepted: 22 July 2020;
Published: 11 August 2020.
Edited by:Banu Cakir, Hacettepe University, Turkey
Reviewed by:Eugenia M. Bastos, Independent Researcher, Sommerville, MA, United States
Lira Pi, The University of Iowa, United States
Copyright © 2020 Pan, Cheng, Cao, Hu, Zou, Yu and Xu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


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In addition to tools to address these misconceptions, the report lays out the next steps to help grow gaming advertising budgets. IAB emphasizes demonstrating the unique value of gaming, building interoperability and supporting further research.
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Amanda is the latest "Sweet" to join America's Sweethearts!
Joining forces with Patrick Ortman and NOVA, Amanda literally ran all over NYC shooting this commercial for a new LED running jacket.
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domain: entertainment


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Historic painting returns to Acadian museum in Moncton
Painting once believed to be a replica has returned to Moncton after a cross-Atlantic tour
After a tour through Quebec and France, Jeanne-Mance Cormier is breathing a sigh of relief now that an original painting from 1688 has returned to the Musée acadien in Moncton.
"For many years we actually thought it was a copy," the museum curator said of the huge painting, which measures about three metres by two metres or 10 by seven feet.
Maybe this was older than we all believed and that's when, as a curator, I got excited — goosebumps and all.- Jeanne-Mance Cormier, Musée acadien
The painting, titled Présentation de Jésus au Temple, or The Presentation of Jesus in the Temple, is once again on display as part of the permanent collection at the University of Moncton.
Cormier said it was presumed to be "a replica" of a work by master, likely completed by a Quebec artist in 1788.
"But when we started to do the restoration in 2008 we started to get more information … that maybe this was older than we all believed and that's when, as a curator, I got excited — goose bumps and all."
It turned out that the top and bottom of the painting had been rolled under when it was framed and the signature of the artist and the date were hidden.
"It didn't looked like it was a rolled painting, so we were losing part of the top of the painting and part of the bottom so the bottom — that's where we find the second date — 1688 — and that changes the story of the painting," Cormier said.
"It was made by Louis Boulogne le jeune. He was the official painter of the King of France in 1688."
Painting hung in Grande-Digue
Cormier said research by staff at the Musée acadien revealed a fascinating story about how the painting made its way to New Brunswick, and the two priests and brothers who were behind its journey.
"It's a part of the France history," Cormier said. "It was a bit more turmoil in France, so two priests from Quebec, they were called Desjardins … one of those two brothers actually decided to try to save some of the church paintings that was in France, and they started to ship them to Quebec."
In 1820, Father Philippe Desjardins sent 60 paintings from France to his brother, Father Louis-Joseph Desjardins, who was chaplain to the nuns of the Hôtel-Dieu from Quebec.
At the time New Brunswick was part of the Quebec diocese and the paintings were to be distributed and sold to local churches.
Cormier said Présentation de Jésus au Temple landed at Notre-Dame-de-la-Visitation Church in Grande-Digue.
"So in the church of Grande-Digue, many people still remember growing up and seeing that massive painting on top of the sanctuary."
When the church was renovated in the 1960s, the painting was removed and in 1969 it was donated to the Musée acadien, where it sat in storage for three decades.
The painting was restored in 2008 by Adam Karpowicz, following a request by the Grande-Digue Historical Society to borrow the canvas to display it once again at the local church.
Karpowicz said there had been three restorations before his, and he suspects the date of 1788 was added during the first.
He said it was the second restoration, at the turn of the 19th century, that reduced the size of the painting.
"During my restoration, I discovered the original date of 1688," he said.
"The conservation of the painting involved cleaning many layers of varnish, removal of the overpaints … then filling losses and inpainting and finally varnishing," Karpowicz said.
A link to Acadian history
Cormier said the painting shows the connection that existed between Quebec and Acadie and gives people a window into what it was like to go to church at that time.
"In Grande-Digue, they were looking at those kind of paintings as they were going to church. Today of course we don't go to church as often as we used to go, but an exhibit or a piece like that will help us understand what the people were looking at when they were in the church."
The restoration not only revealed the date and the artist, it also transformed the dark painting.
"I knew the painting but it was so dark," she said. "You never even realized that Baby Jesus is bright and that there are some colours in this painting that are marvellous.
"The marble in the stairway of this painting, we didn't see that at all, and that probably explains why even the signature and the date couldn't be seen."
From Acadie back to France
Since it's been restored, the painting has attracted a lot of national and international attention.
It was part of an exhibit in Quebec from June to September 2017 about the Desjardins brothers and then travelled to France to be part of an exhibit there from October 2017 through January.
"Our painting became part of that story ... and imagine — that is only one piece of the collection. We have plenty of other paintings and beautiful pieces and we don't talk enough about how important research is within exhibits in museum walls."
The painting is now back on display at the Musée acadien, and Cormier said she is already getting calls from people who want to visit.
In particular, she said, there are people who grew up with the painting in Grande-Digue, who return often.
"They still actually come here and visit it and they want me to tell them when it's back in its spot.
"So Grande-Digue, it's back.
"Getting more information and researching — that's what is a museum and that's what we are supposed to do, so for us it was the best time and the story continues."


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- 1½ cups leftover stuffing
- 3 eggs
- ¼ cup milk
From Your Pantry
kosher salt and black pepper
cooking spray or butter
Brava egg tray
Allergens: Eggs, Wheat (Gluten), Milk
- Lightly butter or spray indicated cup(s) on egg tray.
- Evenly distribute stuffing in each cup of Brava egg tray.
Prep egg mixture
- In medium bowl, whisk together eggs, milk, ½ teaspoon salt and ¼ teaspoon pepper.
- Slowly pour enough egg mixture into each egg cup to cover stuffing. Each cup should be filled almost to rim; don’t overfill. You may have some egg mixture left over.
Slide egg tray into top shelf
- Select “Leftover Stuffing Frittatas” on your Brava touchscreen and follow instructions.
- When food is done, using a spoon, gently scoop out frittatas and transfer to individual plates.

domain: food


Matfer 013203 34 Cup (17 Cup Raw) 8.5 Qt. (8 Liter) Stainless Steel Pressure Cooker with Steamer Basket
Mimic the effects of braising or simmering in this Matfer Bourgeat 013203 8.5 qt. (8 liter) stainless steel pressure cooker. From pot roast and stew to chili and brisket, virtually anything that can be cooked in steam or water-based liquids can be cooked in a pressure cooker! Cut down on cooking time while still serving up delicious dishes to your customers.
Made from 18/10 stainless steel, this pressure cooker features a triple layer base of copper enveloped by steel for exceptional heat retention and conduction. This cooker includes a fitted steamer basket, plastic handles, a fast close lid, and is induction-ready! This unit meets the European pressure standard of 10psi/65 kpa. The U.S. pressure standard is 15psi/100kpa.
- Solid 18/10 stainless steel construction with triple layer (steel, copper, steel) base
- 8.5 qt. capacity
- Meets European pressure standard of 10psi/65kpa
- Includes fitted steamer basket
- Mimics the effect of braising or simmering
- Perfect for preparing pot roast, chili, stews, and more
- Cooker is dishwasher safe; the lid should be handwashed
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Colorado Solid and Hazardous Waste Commission to meet in Fort Morgan
Kelly MacGregor, Communications Specialist | 303-692-3304 | firstname.lastname@example.org
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, Sept. 6, 2018
DENVER – The Colorado Solid and Hazardous Waste Commission will meet in Fort Morgan on Monday, Sept. 10, to give area residents an opportunity to provide their perspectives on solid and hazardous waste issues in the region. The commission will meet at 7 p.m. at the Fort Morgan Historic City Hall in the City Council Chambers, 110 Main Street. The public is invited to attend.
“The commission enjoys traveling around the state and hearing from residents about successes and concerns in their community,” said Acting Commission Administrator Brandy Valdez-Murphy. “Seeing the diverse areas where people work and live helps the commission effectively manage solid and hazardous waste in Colorado.”
The commission meets quarterly in the Denver Metro Area. The Colorado Solid and Hazardous Waste Commission is a nine-member board appointed by the governor. Its primary role is to adopt rules pertaining to solid and hazardous waste. The commission is made up of three members from the regulated industry, three members from local government or academia and three members from the public at large. Members represent a variety of interests and areas of the state.


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Posted in Operations and Supply Chain Terms, Total Reads: 3956
It is the process of consolidation of several units into single unit. It is made of a number of items or a bulky material and is constrained to lifted and shifted because it is too bulky to be moved manually. Material handling cost decreases as the size of the unit increases.
Using a carton would be more economical than lifting items individually and combining several cartons into a unit load would be even more economical.
At the time of transferring the purchased components in the car we do not keep them individually we place them in a bag. Similarly unit loads are used in the industry .Pallet is an example of a unit load device usually has a dimension of 48”X40”X4” designed so that several packages are placed on it. Several such packages form a unit cube.


The Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico is full of adventure, it’s around every corner. Whether you enjoy zip lining, snorkelling, repelling into a cave, exploring an underground river, or following your GPS to a geocache. No, I did not misspell anything, a geocache.
Halloween has come a long way since the Celts celebrated the date as a transition from summer to winter. This year, don’t limit yourself to dressing up in a tacky costume, carving a wonky smile onto a pumpkin, and answering the door to a plague of irritating trick or treaters – head to some truly spooky dwellings, wild street parties or ghoulish haunts around the world instead. Here’s HI’s guide to the eeriest, and coolest, places to be seen this Halloween.
Are you planning to party your way through the summer and rave whilst feeling the sand between your toes? If the answer is yes, then read on. Hostelling International has some of the best beach parties’ locations, where clothing is just optional, music is compulsory and fun is all part of the plan.
Have you ever wondered why it is impossible to divide food and love? Nothing brings people together like sharing an appetizing meal and making conservation across the table, especially when dinner is composed with one of those ingredients.
The HI blog is your resource for the real hostel experience. Find travel tips, advice from fellow travellers, and great news stories and articles from our blog authors, Alex, Lenka and Julian.


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Gap is going to file for bankruptcy.
That might sound like a bold, even reckless prediction. But given Gap’s downward spiral, the San Francisco apparel giant will not survive without a radical restructuring only made possible by U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
Put simply: The company’s business model is irreparably broken.
Gap still enjoys considerable financial resources, so it can delay the inevitable, perhaps for a few years. But it has crossed an unfortunate threshold that even if the retailer manages to revitalize its product line — a big if — the challenges that Gap faces both internally and industry-wide make a comeback highly unlikely.
“Gap Inc. is committed to maintaining a fiscally disciplined approach in the pursuit of transforming our business,” Gap spokeswoman Jennifer Poppers said. “We have a strong balance sheet, healthy free cash flow, and we make prudent financial policy decisions.”
Gap is still struggling to fix its merchandise just as apparel sales have flattened and shoppers are shifting their dollars to the Internet and fast-fashion competitors like Uniqlo, Zara and H&M. Gap is primarily dependent on malls, a format under tremendous pressure from e-commerce. With store sales drying up, Gap is finding it increasingly difficult to generate the cash it needs to keep investors happy and pay the bills.
“Gap’s time has passed,” said Chicago retail consultant Brian Kelly. “They are not even taking care of their stores. When a brand gets to that point, it’s game, set and match.”
Gap’s problems are numerous, so it helps to break down the challenges into three broad categories: sales, distribution and economics.
Even in tough times, most retailers can point to some part of the business showing some growth.
Not so with Gap.
All three major business units — Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic — are struggling. In 2015, sales at stores open for at least a year fell 4 percent. Things are not that much better this year: first quarter same-store sales dropped 5 percent. In fact, Gap has not recorded a monthly same-store sales increase since March 2015, a good 14 months ago.
CEO Art Peck has made fixing Gap’s merchandise his top priority.
“I spoke to you very directly about the fact that we were not where we needed to be in terms of products, across our brands,” Peck recently said in a conference call with analysts. “We have done a great deal of work across the company over the last 12 months-plus to be focused on product, focused on restoring the aesthetic of our brands, quality where it is appropriate, consistent fit and a number of elements of product.”
For example, Gap has high hopes for the Athleta activewear brand.
“Athleta continues to perform superbly for us,” Peck said. “It is positioned right in the sweet spot of the active space, which is growing faster than the overall rate of apparel. ... (The brand is not only) a growth driver in this company, but also as a source of innovation to the rest of our portfolio.”
But is that enough?
Gap has failed to establish a consistent brand identity since former CEO Mickey Drexler pioneered the basics in the 1990s.
“While the assortment may improve at Gap brand by spring 2016 under new management, regaining traffic is a tough task, especially after disappointing customers” with lackluster clothing displays, Matthew Boss, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, wrote in a recent report.
Apparel brands also no longer command the consumer loyalty they once enjoyed. Carol Spieckerman, president of the Spieckerman Retail consulting group, said the days of big chains telling consumers what to wear are over.
‘A lot more vulnerable’
“We’re operating in a trendless environment,” she said, noting that other apparel retailers, including J. Crew, Macy’s and Abercrombie & Fitch, are struggling. “But Gap is in a lot more vulnerable position than other retailers, because they held on this dictatorial bent (about what’s fashionable) a little bit longer than necessary. The game has shifted to react to consumers rather than dictate the fashion.”
Speed, not brand loyalty, is what drives shoppers these days.
Gap is ceding ground to fast-fashion retailers like Uniqlo and H&M, because those companies have been able to more quickly bring new products into stores and pull the merchandise when a trend fades. Gap is still stuck with its old model of planning collections a year in advance, and tastes can dramatically shift in those 12 months, Spieckerman said.
The competitive landscape is only going to get tougher. Amazon is planning a major push into its own clothing brands. And Target, whose apparel prices compete directly with Old Navy, recently hired Mark Tritton as its chief merchandise officer. Tritton previously served as president of Nordstrom Product Group, where he oversaw development of the high-end retailer’s private label brands.
It’s no secret that the Internet has sapped traffic from physical stores, especially malls. In fact, analysis firm Morningstar estimates that e-commerce bears some responsibility for eliminating 900 million square feet of physical retail real estate to date, or 12 percent of shopping centers’ current footprint.
Gap’s biggest Achilles’ heel is its reliance on malls. About 75 percent of Gap stores and 80 percent of Banana Republic locations are in malls.
Most retailers have tried to mitigate declining store traffic by boosting e-commerce operations — whether through desktop computers, mobile devices or social media. Gap’s digital efforts, however, have been going in the wrong direction.
As e-commerce chief, Peck helped Gap generate annual online sales gains of 21.5 percent in 2013 and 10.6 percent in 2014. Last year, online sales were essentially flat.
A missed chance?
Weak e-commerce efforts also hurt store sales, because people tend to research merchandise online before going to a physical location to buy the item.
Gap may have already missed its chance to persuade consumers to think of the retailer as a destination for online shopping, Kelly said.
“Gap lacks the punch to be a viable Internet brand,” he said.
Almost eight years removed from the Great Recession, the U.S. consumer has yet to fully recover from the devastating economic downturn. Despite low gas prices, which theoretically give consumers more spending money, retailers have seen only lackluster sales growth, in the low single digits.
Some economists think consumers will never return to the debt-fueled spending sprees of yesteryear. As a result, retailers are fighting for a piece of a shrinking pie, made even smaller by the rapid growth of e-commerce giant Amazon.
In 2011, several people predicted that consumer electronics retailer Best Buy would file for bankruptcy, noting that its top rival, Circuit City, had already done so, blaming competition from Amazon.
But Best Buy has survived and stabilized sales, in part because of its ability to expand into more categories — services, high-end televisions, appliances, mobile devices — even drones.
Spieckerman says the rapidly changing nature of technology allows retailers like Best Buy to constantly update its inventory. However, with retailers like Gap, “apparel is apparel,” she said.
Gap enjoys strong credit ratings and relatively little debt compared with other retailers, so the company will not need to file for bankruptcy anytime soon.
However, Gap’s inability to increase sales is putting enormous pressure on its finances. In 2015, its free cash flow totaled $868 million, a severe 38 percent decline from the $1.4 billion it generated the previous year, according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
To offset declining sales, Gap has been closing stores. Last year, the company said it will shutter 25 percent, or 175, of its stores in North America over the next few years. And last week, Gap said it plans to close another 75 stores in other countries.
Unless it can reverse its fortunes, Gap will be stuck in a death cycle of closing stores to cut costs because it can’t increase sales. Closing stores also means less revenue, adding further pressure on the retailer in the long term.
And that leads to one place: Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Thomas Lee is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. He is author of “Rebuilding Empires” (St. Martin’s Press), a book about the future of big-box retail in the digital age. Email: email@example.com Twitter: ByTomLee


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A pampering selection of active, botanicals to help protect, heal, soften, and nourish the skin. Antioxidant-rich, floral & aromatherapeutic blends to include rose, geranium peony, and neroli.
The perfect compilation for a pampering yet practical travel set, or simply to experience the best of a clean and simple daily facial and body care routine.
This Kit Includes:
- Sugar Scrub (55g/1.9oz)
- Rosehip Seed Oil (7ml/.23oz)
- Clay Mask (3g/.10oz)
- Neroli Water (5ml/.16oz)
- Body Butter (28 g/1oz)
- Himalayan Bath Salts (1oz/1.8oz)
Himalayan Salts: detoxifying, high in calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and other trace minerals, eases cramping and sore muscles, relaxing
Neroli Water: hydrating, uplifting, reduces redness, astringent, anti-bacterial
Peony Flower: antioxidant
Rosehip: high in vitamin C; nutritive; good tonic for general debility and exhaustion
Sumac Berries: exfoliating; high in Vitamin C; anti-oxidant
Vanilla Bean: warming; soothing to skin, aphrodisiac
Recommended by a relative so I gave it to her for bday gift!
I like the fact you can order trial sizes of multiple products to see if they will work for you before purchasing a larger version.

domain: health


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Can the Tamil Nadu government pass an Ordinance to allow Jallikattu to go on?
Can the Tamil Nadu government pass an Ordinance to allow Jallikattu to go on?
On January 12, the Supreme Court shut down a move by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government at the Centre to override its own 2014 verdict and issuing a notification allowing Jallikattu (the traditional Tamil bull-taming sport) to go on. The BJP had issued a notification on January 7, citing culture and tradition as a reason to allow Jallikattu and cart racing in Maharashtra and Haryana, while continuing to keep the bull on the list of animals prohibited for use as performing animals. Five days later, the Supreme Court imposed an interim stay on Jallikattu, asking for responses from all parties concerned.
A red-faced BJP has now thrown the ball back into the Tamil Nadu government’s court. “Since the Supreme Court stay is interim in nature, there is no possibility of a new Ordinance on Jallikattu,” said Nirmal Seetharaman, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry. “When the state government brings such an Ordinance, we will support it,” she added.
Seetharaman’s response is to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s letter to the Prime Minister on January 12 – “With the Pongal festivities commencing from 14.1.2016, the public in the rural areas of Tamil Nadu have made all arrangements and preparations and are eagerly looking forward to the conduct of Jallikattu as part of the traditional festivities ingrained in the hoary cultural heritage of Tamil Nadu,” she wrote in her letter. “It is very important that the sentiments of the people of Tamil Nadu, who have a deep attachment to the conduct of the traditional event of Jallikattu, are respected.
Hence, considering the urgency of the issue, I strongly reiterate my earlier request to the Government of India to promulgate an Ordinance forthwith to enable the conduct of Jallikattu. On behalf of the people of Tamil Nadu I urge you to take immediate action in this regard,” her letter stated. All other parties were quick to put the onus on the Centre, asking them to bring in appropriate legislation.
But can the State government actually bring in an Ordinance?
To understand the issue, one needs to go a little deeper into the legal aspects. Take the 2014 Supreme Court verdict which banned Jallikattu (Link to judgement: http://supremecourtofindia.nic.in/outtoday/sc1168607.pdf). The Supreme Court has taken up in detail, the various arguments of culture and tradition and relied on three sections of the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act 1960, to pronounce its verdict. The key points for banning Jallikattu are that cruelty in inherent in the sport and that culture and tradition cannot mean that we can condone cruelty to animals.
The three sections under the Prevention of Cruelty Act 1960 (Link to PCA Act:http://www.envfor.nic.in/legis/awbi/awbi01.pdf) which have been cited by the Supreme Court are as follows:
1) Section 3 of PCA Act: “Duties of persons having charge of animals : It shall be the duty of every person having the care or charge of any animal to take all reasonable measures to ensure the well-being of such animal and to prevent the infliction upon such animal of unnecessary pain or suffering.”
2) Section 11 of PCA Act: “Treating animals cruelly : (1) If any person (a) beats, kicks, over-rides, over-drives, over-loads, tortures or otherwise treats any animal so as to subject it to unnecessary pain or suffering or causes, or being the owner permits, any animal to be so treated…”
3) Section 22 of PCA Act: “Restriction on exhibition and training of performing animals : No person shall exhibit or train (i) any performing animal unless he is registered in accordance with the provisions of this Chapter; (ii) as a performing animal, any animal which the Central Government may, by notification in the official gazette, specify as an animal which shall not be exhibited or trained as a performing animal.”
Legal experts say that the January 7 notification of the Ministry of Environment and Forests (Link to notification: http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2016/167482.pdf) tackled only Section 22 of the PCA Act, but not the other two key Sections which spoke about cruelty to the animal. “Of the three sections cited by the Supreme Court, Sections 3 and 11 deal with general cruelty to the bull,” said KM Vijayan, senior lawyer at the Madras High Court and a constitutional expert. “Neither the Centre nor the State has room to manouevre. They have to repeal the whole Act to allow Jallikattu,” he said.
Since the subject is under the Concurrent List, meaning both the Centre and the State can legislate on it, Vijayan feels the legalese becomes much more complex. “The difficulty in this case is that the subject is under the Concurrent List,” said Vijayan. “Due to this the State government has to get prior instructions from the President to pass an Ordinance and after the Ordinance is passed, the President has to give his assent. It will not go to the Governor for assent in this case, because this is on the Concurrent list. Neither of these two things are possible,” he said.
Former Solicitor General of India Mohan Parasaran rubbished Nirmala Seetharaman’s claims of the State being able to pass an Ordinance while the Centre cannot. “It is on the Concurrent List but even if the State government does promulgate an Ordinance, it still needs to get Presidential assent,” explained Parasaran. “That is going to take time. And if Nirmala Seetharaman says it is sub-judice and therefore Centre cannot pass an Ordinance, how can the President sign a state Ordinance on the same subject when it is still sub-judice?” he questioned. Another issue is that even an Ordinance can be struck down by the courts, leaving the government embarrassed.
Senior Supreme Court lawyers in Delhi though feel that it is still possible for the State government to promulgate an Ordinance, although it would depend on what the wording is. “There is a possibility that they can say that Jallikattu alone can be held and that it should adhere to very stringent rules to ensure no cruelty to the animal,” said a senior lawyer in Delhi who did not wish to be quoted. “I do not wish to speculate until any such Ordinance actually comes,” he added.
The BJP though is stuck in a hole as far as Tamil Nadu politics is concerned. “We were hoping to get a good name by bringing in that notification,” said a senior BJP leader on condition of anonymity. “We knew it would not stand up in court but we had to do something because there was so much demand from the people. Now they are saying we have made matters worse,” he rued.
Sources in Delhi say that an enormous amount of lobbying went on behind the scenes in the power corridors to ensure that the January 7 Jallikattu notification could be issued without a hitch. Women and Child Empowerment Minister Maneka Gandhi, founder of the People for Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) and a dedicated animal rights campaigner of decades, was the first to be reigned in, according to a source. “She was told to remain silent,” said the source. “When the notification came, Maneka was furious. She is the person who called up the petitioners and asked them to file the case challenging the notification in Supreme Court,” she said.
Pressure too was put on the officials at the Animal Welfare Board of India to ensure that they did not challenge the notification in the Supreme Court. When the Board did not bow down to pressure, an Under Secretary at the Ministry of Environment and Forests asked the Chairman General Kharb and the Vice Chairman Chinny Krishna to resign from their posts, according to informed sources.
As Pongal nears, protests are on in Madurai and Alanganallur, demanding that Jallikattu be held. It is now clear that the Centre has thrown up its hands and refused to antagonise the judiciary any further. The BJP has firmly lobbed the political ball back in the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (AIADMK) court. In an election year, will the State government dare to take on the judiciary in order to appease the electorate? Only Chief Minister Jayalalithaa has the answer to that question.
- Sandhya Ravishankar, (@sandhyaravishan)

domain: law


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Mortgages - Back to Basics – Show Notes
In this episode I get Back to Basics with mortgages; the different types of mortgages and mortgage products, repayment methods, interest rates and lots more.
You can listen directly at the link below or on the major podcast platforms – search for Mortgage Momma!
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domain: finance