promo_spike_s123.json

{
  "instance_id": "promo_spike_s123",
  "scenario_id": "promo_spike",
  "seed": 123,
  "oracle_cost": 34334.88,
  "forecast_decoupling": false,
  "insight": "For this scenario, deterministic_p50 aligns forecast accuracy and decision cost optimality.",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 10.234,
      "rmse": 13.58,
      "total_cost": 45257.79,
      "stockout_cost": 25184.61,
      "holding_cost": 524.65,
      "waste_cost": 4863.42,
      "service_level": 0.88265,
      "decision_regret": 10922.910000000003,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0097
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 10.224,
      "rmse": 11.816,
      "total_cost": 42383.64,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 588.26,
      "waste_cost": 25487.15,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 8048.760000000002,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0101
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 10.352,
      "rmse": 11.951,
      "total_cost": 56589.58,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1221.91,
      "waste_cost": 38842.67,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 22254.700000000004,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0405
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 10.486,
      "rmse": 12.067,
      "total_cost": 77069.18,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1484.65,
      "waste_cost": 58898.49,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 42734.299999999996,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0407
    }
  ]
}