{
  "instance_id": "holiday_surge_s42",
  "scenario_id": "holiday_surge",
  "seed": 42,
  "oracle_cost": 34844.82,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (quantile_stochastic: MAE 8.71) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. deterministic_p50 wins on total cost ($39,496) despite higher MAE (8.78).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 11.593,
      "rmse": 15.689,
      "total_cost": 46639.83,
      "stockout_cost": 28237.1,
      "holding_cost": 514.54,
      "waste_cost": 3043.59,
      "service_level": 0.87475,
      "decision_regret": 11795.010000000002,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0109
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 8.776,
      "rmse": 10.293,
      "total_cost": 39496.24,
      "stockout_cost": 96.86,
      "holding_cost": 578.36,
      "waste_cost": 22368.4,
      "service_level": 0.99955,
      "decision_regret": 4651.419999999998,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0111
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 8.715,
      "rmse": 10.233,
      "total_cost": 53251.34,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1215.24,
      "waste_cost": 35361.11,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 18406.519999999997,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0406
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 8.865,
      "rmse": 10.381,
      "total_cost": 74032.72,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1486.12,
      "waste_cost": 55813.79,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 39187.9,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0469
    }
  ]
}