{
  "instance_id": "oil_shock_s123",
  "scenario_id": "oil_shock",
  "seed": 123,
  "oracle_cost": 32842.63,
  "forecast_decoupling": false,
  "insight": "For this scenario, deterministic_p50 aligns forecast accuracy and decision cost optimality.",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 8.65,
      "rmse": 11.518,
      "total_cost": 38199.89,
      "stockout_cost": 18502.05,
      "holding_cost": 513.61,
      "waste_cost": 4732.58,
      "service_level": 0.9029499999999999,
      "decision_regret": 5357.260000000002,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 7.125,
      "rmse": 8.513,
      "total_cost": 35850.89,
      "stockout_cost": 2.97,
      "holding_cost": 519.67,
      "waste_cost": 19436.9,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 3008.260000000002,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 7.227,
      "rmse": 8.647,
      "total_cost": 47805.36,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1044.72,
      "waste_cost": 30457.46,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 14962.730000000003,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0407
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 7.335,
      "rmse": 8.757,
      "total_cost": 65081.6,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1259.78,
      "waste_cost": 47239.99,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 32238.97,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0402
    }
  ]
}