{
  "instance_id": "promo_spike_s42",
  "scenario_id": "promo_spike",
  "seed": 42,
  "oracle_cost": 34657.63,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (quantile_stochastic: MAE 10.07) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. deterministic_p50 wins on total cost ($42,309) despite higher MAE (10.11).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 10.996,
      "rmse": 14.491,
      "total_cost": 47913.76,
      "stockout_cost": 28341.27,
      "holding_cost": 507.67,
      "waste_cost": 4221.02,
      "service_level": 0.87155,
      "decision_regret": 13256.130000000005,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0097
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 10.106,
      "rmse": 11.588,
      "total_cost": 42308.81,
      "stockout_cost": 7.76,
      "holding_cost": 593.42,
      "waste_cost": 25357.63,
      "service_level": 0.99995,
      "decision_regret": 7651.18,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0099
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 10.068,
      "rmse": 11.574,
      "total_cost": 56397.06,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1241.95,
      "waste_cost": 38655.1,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 21739.43,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0404
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 10.264,
      "rmse": 11.763,
      "total_cost": 77531.04,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1509.69,
      "waste_cost": 59271.35,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 42873.409999999996,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0403
    }
  ]
}