{
  "instance_id": "baseline_s42",
  "scenario_id": "baseline",
  "seed": 42,
  "oracle_cost": 32649.2,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (quantile_stochastic: MAE 7.01) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. deterministic_p50 wins on total cost ($35,694) despite higher MAE (7.05).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 8.48,
      "rmse": 10.837,
      "total_cost": 36618.72,
      "stockout_cost": 17027.16,
      "holding_cost": 515.24,
      "waste_cost": 4530.68,
      "service_level": 0.9124,
      "decision_regret": 3969.5200000000004,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0112
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 7.051,
      "rmse": 8.402,
      "total_cost": 35694.26,
      "stockout_cost": 44.13,
      "holding_cost": 520.41,
      "waste_cost": 19163.99,
      "service_level": 0.99985,
      "decision_regret": 3045.0600000000013,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0114
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 7.012,
      "rmse": 8.351,
      "total_cost": 47380.17,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1053.2,
      "waste_cost": 29993.74,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 14730.969999999998,
      "runtime_sec": 0.04
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 7.151,
      "rmse": 8.492,
      "total_cost": 65063.67,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1273.37,
      "waste_cost": 47182.73,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 32414.469999999998,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0387
    }
  ]
}