{
  "instance_id": "oil_shock_s42",
  "scenario_id": "oil_shock",
  "seed": 42,
  "oracle_cost": 32504.95,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (quantile_stochastic: MAE 7.43) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. naive_ma wins on total cost ($35,367) despite higher MAE (8.08).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 8.083,
      "rmse": 10.434,
      "total_cost": 35367.35,
      "stockout_cost": 15543.44,
      "holding_cost": 515.49,
      "waste_cost": 4762.16,
      "service_level": 0.9193,
      "decision_regret": 2862.399999999998,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 7.473,
      "rmse": 8.832,
      "total_cost": 36494.13,
      "stockout_cost": 25.21,
      "holding_cost": 521.91,
      "waste_cost": 19981.12,
      "service_level": 0.99995,
      "decision_regret": 3989.1799999999967,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 7.433,
      "rmse": 8.779,
      "total_cost": 48294.43,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1058.24,
      "waste_cost": 30902.93,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 15789.48,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0407
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 7.58,
      "rmse": 8.925,
      "total_cost": 66118.31,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1280.24,
      "waste_cost": 48205.46,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 33613.36,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0409
    }
  ]
}