{
  "instance_id": "supply_disruption_s123",
  "scenario_id": "supply_disruption",
  "seed": 123,
  "oracle_cost": 37282.05,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (deterministic_p50: MAE 5.28) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. naive_ma wins on total cost ($34,276) despite higher MAE (8.96).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 8.964,
      "rmse": 11.513,
      "total_cost": 34276.4,
      "stockout_cost": 14027.76,
      "holding_cost": 573.17,
      "waste_cost": 4825.48,
      "service_level": 0.92565,
      "decision_regret": 0.0,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0117
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 5.279,
      "rmse": 6.688,
      "total_cost": 36495.95,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 654.42,
      "waste_cost": 19966.53,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 0.0,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0114
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 5.35,
      "rmse": 6.779,
      "total_cost": 48405.63,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1171.69,
      "waste_cost": 30908.93,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 11123.579999999994,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0428
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 5.414,
      "rmse": 6.84,
      "total_cost": 65342.58,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1405.0,
      "waste_cost": 47387.58,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 28060.53,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0392
    }
  ]
}