{
  "instance_id": "supply_disruption_s42",
  "scenario_id": "supply_disruption",
  "seed": 42,
  "oracle_cost": 37644.11,
  "forecast_decoupling": true,
  "insight": "Lower forecast error (quantile_stochastic: MAE 5.87) does not guarantee lower inventory cost. naive_ma wins on total cost ($32,921) despite higher MAE (8.71).",
  "policies": [
    {
      "policy": "naive_ma",
      "mae": 8.709,
      "rmse": 11.011,
      "total_cost": 32920.64,
      "stockout_cost": 12516.09,
      "holding_cost": 583.6,
      "waste_cost": 4970.96,
      "service_level": 0.9346,
      "decision_regret": 0.0,
      "runtime_sec": 0.012
    },
    {
      "policy": "deterministic_p50",
      "mae": 5.889,
      "rmse": 7.24,
      "total_cost": 38736.2,
      "stockout_cost": 52.92,
      "holding_cost": 678.69,
      "waste_cost": 22004.59,
      "service_level": 0.9997,
      "decision_regret": 1092.0899999999965,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0118
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_stochastic",
      "mae": 5.865,
      "rmse": 7.219,
      "total_cost": 50671.72,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1219.02,
      "waste_cost": 33152.7,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 13027.61,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0408
    },
    {
      "policy": "quantile_robust",
      "mae": 5.997,
      "rmse": 7.363,
      "total_cost": 68811.56,
      "stockout_cost": 0.0,
      "holding_cost": 1471.7,
      "waste_cost": 50764.86,
      "service_level": 1.0,
      "decision_regret": 31167.449999999997,
      "runtime_sec": 0.0419
    }
  ]
}