text: Does anyone have an estimate of when the ill effects of the Tier 1 system that ended in 1997 will start to be less each year? That is, when Tier 1 beneficiaries die at a faster rate than start retirement?
  
  Hmm, looking at http://www.oregon.gov/PERS/Documents/General-Information/PERS-by-the-Numbers.pdf
  There are 45,000 active and inactive Tier 1 members. 23,000 are eligible to retire. That's a big percentage! But 6,000 retire (from all tiers) per year on average.
  
  To me, then it sounds like in the next 5 years we may see most of the Tier 1 employees retire. At that point, the number of Tier 1 retirees will decrease. It may take a few years beyond that for the guaranteed deficits to not overcome the decreasing number of retirees, so within a decade the pain might start to ebb? That's a long time. Maybe we should all hope for Trump's growth stimulus on near-full employment to cause skyrocketing inflation and higher returns from investments.