"""Generate African Mobile Subscriber Data for 15 SSA countries across 3 scenarios.""" import csv import json import os import random from dataclasses import dataclass, field from typing import Dict, List, Tuple SEED = 42 random.seed(SEED) COUNTRIES = [ "Nigeria", "South Africa", "Kenya", "Ghana", "Tanzania", "Ethiopia", "Uganda", "Cote d'Ivoire", "Senegal", "Angola", "Mozambique", "Rwanda", "Cameroon", "Madagascar", "Zambia", ] SCENARIOS = ["baseline", "5g_rollout", "market_saturation"] RECORDS_PER_SCENARIO = 10000 YEARS = [2024, 2025, 2026] QUARTERS = ["Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4"] TECHNOLOGIES = ["2g", "3g", "4g", "5g"] # Country-specific operator profiles OPERATOR_PROFILES: Dict[str, List[dict]] = { "Nigeria": [ {"name": "MTN Nigeria", "base_subscribers": 85.0, "base_market_share": 38.0, "base_arpu": 4.8}, {"name": "Glo", "base_subscribers": 60.0, "base_market_share": 27.0, "base_arpu": 3.9}, {"name": "Airtel Africa (Nigeria)", "base_subscribers": 55.0, "base_market_share": 25.0, "base_arpu": 4.2}, {"name": "9mobile", "base_subscribers": 20.0, "base_market_share": 10.0, "base_arpu": 3.5}, ], "South Africa": [ {"name": "MTN South Africa", "base_subscribers": 35.0, "base_market_share": 35.0, "base_arpu": 6.5}, {"name": "Vodacom", "base_subscribers": 40.0, "base_market_share": 40.0, "base_arpu": 7.2}, {"name": "Cell C", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 12.0, "base_arpu": 4.8}, {"name": "Telkom Mobile", "base_subscribers": 13.0, "base_market_share": 13.0, "base_arpu": 5.1}, ], "Kenya": [ {"name": "Safaricom", "base_subscribers": 42.0, "base_market_share": 63.0, "base_arpu": 5.5}, {"name": "Airtel Kenya", "base_subscribers": 18.0, "base_market_share": 27.0, "base_arpu": 3.2}, {"name": "Telkom Kenya", "base_subscribers": 7.0, "base_market_share": 10.0, "base_arpu": 2.8}, ], "Ghana": [ {"name": "MTN Ghana", "base_subscribers": 25.0, "base_market_share": 55.0, "base_arpu": 4.0}, {"name": "Vodafone Ghana", "base_subscribers": 10.0, "base_market_share": 22.0, "base_arpu": 3.2}, {"name": "AirtelTigo", "base_subscribers": 8.0, "base_market_share": 18.0, "base_arpu": 2.9}, ], "Tanzania": [ {"name": "Vodacom Tanzania", "base_subscribers": 16.0, "base_market_share": 32.0, "base_arpu": 3.5}, {"name": "Airtel Tanzania", "base_subscribers": 14.0, "base_market_share": 28.0, "base_arpu": 3.0}, {"name": "Tigo Tanzania", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 24.0, "base_arpu": 3.1}, {"name": "Halotel", "base_subscribers": 5.0, "base_market_share": 10.0, "base_arpu": 2.5}, {"name": "TTCL", "base_subscribers": 3.0, "base_market_share": 6.0, "base_arpu": 2.2}, ], "Ethiopia": [ {"name": "Ethio Telecom", "base_subscribers": 70.0, "base_market_share": 85.0, "base_arpu": 2.8}, {"name": "Safaricom Ethiopia", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 15.0, "base_arpu": 3.5}, ], "Uganda": [ {"name": "MTN Uganda", "base_subscribers": 16.0, "base_market_share": 50.0, "base_arpu": 2.9}, {"name": "Airtel Uganda", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 37.0, "base_arpu": 2.6}, {"name": "Lycamobile Uganda", "base_subscribers": 2.0, "base_market_share": 6.0, "base_arpu": 2.1}, ], "Cote d'Ivoire": [ {"name": "Orange Cote d'Ivoire", "base_subscribers": 16.0, "base_market_share": 47.0, "base_arpu": 3.4}, {"name": "MTN Cote d'Ivoire", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 35.0, "base_arpu": 3.1}, {"name": "Moov Africa", "base_subscribers": 4.0, "base_market_share": 12.0, "base_arpu": 2.7}, ], "Senegal": [ {"name": "Orange Senegal", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 50.0, "base_arpu": 3.6}, {"name": "Free Senegal", "base_subscribers": 6.0, "base_market_share": 25.0, "base_arpu": 2.8}, {"name": "Expresso", "base_subscribers": 3.0, "base_market_share": 13.0, "base_arpu": 2.3}, ], "Angola": [ {"name": "Unitel", "base_subscribers": 14.0, "base_market_share": 60.0, "base_arpu": 3.8}, {"name": "Movicel", "base_subscribers": 6.0, "base_market_share": 26.0, "base_arpu": 3.0}, ], "Mozambique": [ {"name": "Vodacom Mozambique", "base_subscribers": 10.0, "base_market_share": 42.0, "base_arpu": 2.8}, {"name": "Movitel", "base_subscribers": 8.0, "base_market_share": 33.0, "base_arpu": 2.5}, {"name": "Tmcel", "base_subscribers": 4.0, "base_market_share": 17.0, "base_arpu": 2.1}, ], "Rwanda": [ {"name": "MTN Rwanda", "base_subscribers": 7.0, "base_market_share": 60.0, "base_arpu": 3.2}, {"name": "Airtel Rwanda", "base_subscribers": 4.0, "base_market_share": 34.0, "base_arpu": 2.6}, ], "Cameroon": [ {"name": "MTN Cameroon", "base_subscribers": 12.0, "base_market_share": 45.0, "base_arpu": 3.3}, {"name": "Orange Cameroon", "base_subscribers": 10.0, "base_market_share": 37.0, "base_arpu": 3.1}, {"name": "Nexttel", "base_subscribers": 3.0, "base_market_share": 11.0, "base_arpu": 2.4}, ], "Madagascar": [ {"name": "Telma", "base_subscribers": 8.0, "base_market_share": 45.0, "base_arpu": 2.2}, {"name": "Orange Madagascar", "base_subscribers": 6.0, "base_market_share": 34.0, "base_arpu": 2.5}, {"name": "Airtel Madagascar", "base_subscribers": 3.0, "base_market_share": 17.0, "base_arpu": 2.0}, ], "Zambia": [ {"name": "MTN Zambia", "base_subscribers": 9.0, "base_market_share": 48.0, "base_arpu": 3.1}, {"name": "Airtel Zambia", "base_subscribers": 7.0, "base_market_share": 37.0, "base_arpu": 2.8}, {"name": "Zamtel", "base_subscribers": 2.0, "base_market_share": 11.0, "base_arpu": 2.3}, ], } # Mobile money penetration factors by country (Safaricom M-Pesa dominance in Kenya) MOBILE_MONEY_FACTORS: Dict[str, float] = { "Nigeria": 0.35, "South Africa": 0.08, "Kenya": 0.82, "Ghana": 0.55, "Tanzania": 0.60, "Ethiopia": 0.20, "Uganda": 0.65, "Cote d'Ivoire": 0.50, "Senegal": 0.45, "Angola": 0.10, "Mozambique": 0.35, "Rwanda": 0.55, "Cameroon": 0.30, "Madagascar": 0.25, "Zambia": 0.40, } # Technology mix baselines per country (2g, 3g, 4g, 5g shares) TECH_MIX: Dict[str, Dict[str, List[float]]] = {} for c in COUNTRIES: if c in ("South Africa", "Kenya", "Nigeria"): TECH_MIX[c] = { "baseline": [5, 25, 60, 10], "5g_rollout": [3, 15, 52, 30], "market_saturation": [4, 22, 62, 12], } elif c in ("Ghana", "Tanzania", "Rwanda", "Senegal"): TECH_MIX[c] = { "baseline": [10, 30, 55, 5], "5g_rollout": [6, 20, 50, 24], "market_saturation": [8, 28, 58, 6], } else: TECH_MIX[c] = { "baseline": [18, 35, 45, 2], "5g_rollout": [10, 25, 50, 15], "market_saturation": [15, 32, 48, 5], } def _scenario_multiplier(scenario: str, base: float) -> float: if scenario == "baseline": return base elif scenario == "5g_rollout": return base * 1.08 else: return base * 1.15 def _scenario_subscribers(scenario: str, subs: float) -> float: if scenario == "baseline": return subs elif scenario == "5g_rollout": return subs * 0.95 else: return subs * 1.25 def _rand_tech(tech_mix: List[float]) -> str: return random.choices(TECHNOLOGIES, weights=tech_mix, k=1)[0] def generate_records() -> List[dict]: records = [] record_id = 1 for scenario in SCENARIOS: for _ in range(RECORDS_PER_SCENARIO): country = random.choice(COUNTRIES) operators = OPERATOR_PROFILES[country] op = random.choice(operators) year = random.choice(YEARS) quarter = random.choice(QUARTERS) tech_mix = TECH_MIX[country][scenario] technology = random.choices(TECHNOLOGIES, weights=tech_mix, k=1)[0] subs_base = _scenario_subscribers(scenario, op["base_subscribers"]) active_subscribers = round( subs_base * random.uniform(0.85, 1.15), 2 ) arpu_base = _scenario_multiplier(scenario, op["base_arpu"]) arpu = round(arpu_base * random.uniform(0.88, 1.12), 2) churn = round(random.uniform(1.5, 6.5) if scenario != "market_saturation" else random.uniform(2.5, 8.0), 2) prepaid_share = round(random.uniform(70, 98) if country != "South Africa" else random.uniform(45, 75), 2) if technology in ("4g", "5g"): data_rev = round(random.uniform(45, 75) if scenario != "market_saturation" else random.uniform(55, 82), 2) else: data_rev = round(random.uniform(20, 45), 2) voice_rev = round(100 - data_rev, 2) mm_factor = MOBILE_MONEY_FACTORS[country] if country == "Kenya" and op["name"] == "Safaricom": mm_factor = 0.82 mm_subs = round(active_subscribers * mm_factor * random.uniform(0.7, 1.1), 2) if technology == "5g": data_usage = round(random.uniform(12, 35), 2) elif technology == "4g": data_usage = round(random.uniform(4, 15), 2) elif technology == "3g": data_usage = round(random.uniform(1, 5), 2) else: data_usage = round(random.uniform(0.2, 1.5), 2) if scenario == "5g_rollout": data_usage *= random.uniform(1.2, 1.6) coverage = round(random.uniform(75, 99) if country in ("South Africa", "Kenya") else random.uniform(55, 92), 2) if scenario == "5g_rollout" and technology == "5g": coverage = round(random.uniform(30, 65), 2) market_share = round(op["base_market_share"] * random.uniform(0.9, 1.1), 2) if technology == "5g": spectrum_eff = round(random.uniform(3.5, 5.0), 2) elif technology == "4g": spectrum_eff = round(random.uniform(2.0, 3.5), 2) elif technology == "3g": spectrum_eff = round(random.uniform(1.0, 2.0), 2) else: spectrum_eff = round(random.uniform(0.3, 1.0), 2) satisfaction = round(random.uniform(3.0, 4.8) if country in ("South Africa", "Kenya", "Rwanda") else random.uniform(2.5, 4.2), 2) records.append({ "record_id": record_id, "country": country, "year": year, "quarter": quarter, "operator": op["name"], "technology": technology, "active_subscribers_millions": active_subscribers, "arpu_usd": arpu, "monthly_churn_pct": churn, "prepaid_share_pct": prepaid_share, "data_revenue_share_pct": data_rev, "voice_revenue_share_pct": voice_rev, "mobile_money_subscribers_millions": mm_subs, "data_usage_gb_per_user": round(data_usage, 2), "network_coverage_pct": coverage, "market_share_pct": market_share, "spectrum_efficiency_index": spectrum_eff, "customer_satisfaction_score": satisfaction, "scenario": scenario, }) record_id += 1 random.shuffle(records) return records def write_csv(records: List[dict], path: str) -> None: os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True) fieldnames = list(records[0].keys()) with open(path, "w", newline="", encoding="utf-8") as f: writer = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=fieldnames) writer.writeheader() writer.writerows(records) def write_jsonl(records: List[dict], path: str) -> None: with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: for r in records: f.write(json.dumps(r, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n") def main(): print("Generating 30,000 records across 15 SSA countries and 3 scenarios...") records = generate_records() csv_path = "telecom/african-mobile-subscriber-data/data/african_mobile_subscribers.csv" jsonl_path = "telecom/african-mobile-subscriber-data/data/african_mobile_subscribers.jsonl" write_csv(records, csv_path) print(f" CSV: {csv_path} ({len(records)} rows)") write_jsonl(records, jsonl_path) print(f" JSONL: {jsonl_path} ({len(records)} rows)") # Summary countries_in_data = sorted(set(r["country"] for r in records)) operators_in_data = sorted(set(r["operator"] for r in records)) print(f"\nSummary:") print(f" Countries: {len(countries_in_data)}") print(f" Operators: {len(operators_in_data)}") print(f" Scenarios: {SCENARIOS}") print(f" Total records: {len(records)}") for scenario in SCENARIOS: count = sum(1 for r in records if r["scenario"] == scenario) print(f" {scenario}: {count}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()