Datasets:
SenseShift-RL v1.1 Confirmatory Results
Experiment audit: PASS
Experiment-base release SHA-256: 79fcf1d7700af2c647dc2cfb7920a9349985a0931c1132484d3c478c867150cb
Method-lock SHA-256: 7eebff5c140d33e516d4499f6d1678d7a108662d9306570d88310e25d797bc37
Locked claim decision
The pre-locked nested paired intervals are positive on Future time and Future time + unseen geography; the two test tracks are not pooled. The corresponding Holm-adjusted exact sign-flip tests do not cross 0.05. In the post-hoc crossed-seed sensitivity, a wholly positive interval remains only on Future time + unseen geography; evidence robust to both resampling schemes is limited to that track.
The selected learned family was chosen using calibration only. Test policy parameters and normalization were frozen, and scalar evaluation rewards were not returned as policy feedback.
Calibration-only selection
| Policy | Locked configuration | Equal-track calibration return/day |
|---|---|---|
| DQN | dqn_b |
-0.1374 |
| PPO | ppo_b |
-0.1261 |
| Recurrent PPO | rppo_b |
-0.1299 |
Calibration selected PPO.
Default-cost test results
World-macro mean return/day [10,000-replicate pre-locked nested hierarchical bootstrap 95% interval]. Higher is better. Crossed-seed sensitivity is reported for paired claims below, not for these absolute policy intervals.
| Policy | Future time | Future time + unseen geography |
|---|---|---|
| No sensing | -0.2510 [-0.2750, -0.2271] | -0.2784 [-0.3250, -0.2370] |
| Random budget | -0.1495 [-0.1601, -0.1403] | -0.1522 [-0.1698, -0.1361] |
| Static spatial | -0.1416 [-0.1519, -0.1326] | -0.1614 [-0.1821, -0.1412] |
| Gaussian information | -0.1316 [-0.1459, -0.1175] | -0.1276 [-0.1465, -0.1087] |
| Tabular Q | -0.1529 [-0.1735, -0.1335] | -0.1572 [-0.1887, -0.1265] |
| DQN | -0.1362 [-0.1497, -0.1233] | -0.1436 [-0.1653, -0.1219] |
| PPO | -0.1288 [-0.1448, -0.1145] | -0.1408 [-0.1638, -0.1180] |
| Recurrent PPO | -0.1310 [-0.1473, -0.1159] | -0.1406 [-0.1645, -0.1174] |
| Clairvoyant oracle | -0.0674 [-0.0723, -0.0633] | -0.0731 [-0.0840, -0.0628] |
Robust aggregates and lower-tail worlds
Mean, median, and IQM are across world-seed units; world P10 is the 10th percentile after averaging seeds within each world.
| Track | Policy | Mean | Median | IQM | World P10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future time | No sensing | -0.2510 | -0.2585 | -0.2498 | -0.3241 |
| Future time | Random budget | -0.1495 | -0.1392 | -0.1415 | -0.1832 |
| Future time | Static spatial | -0.1416 | -0.1328 | -0.1353 | -0.1716 |
| Future time | Gaussian information | -0.1316 | -0.1292 | -0.1321 | -0.1717 |
| Future time | Tabular Q | -0.1529 | -0.1333 | -0.1442 | -0.2199 |
| Future time | DQN | -0.1362 | -0.1249 | -0.1297 | -0.1802 |
| Future time | PPO | -0.1288 | -0.1088 | -0.1147 | -0.1639 |
| Future time | Recurrent PPO | -0.1310 | -0.1130 | -0.1177 | -0.1814 |
| Future time | Clairvoyant oracle | -0.0674 | -0.0630 | -0.0635 | -0.0861 |
| Future time + unseen geography | No sensing | -0.2784 | -0.2508 | -0.2678 | -0.3543 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Random budget | -0.1522 | -0.1464 | -0.1480 | -0.1793 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Static spatial | -0.1614 | -0.1587 | -0.1605 | -0.1931 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Gaussian information | -0.1276 | -0.1330 | -0.1262 | -0.1533 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Tabular Q | -0.1572 | -0.1601 | -0.1530 | -0.2002 |
| Future time + unseen geography | DQN | -0.1436 | -0.1345 | -0.1396 | -0.1754 |
| Future time + unseen geography | PPO | -0.1408 | -0.1338 | -0.1338 | -0.1685 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Recurrent PPO | -0.1406 | -0.1329 | -0.1318 | -0.1702 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Clairvoyant oracle | -0.0731 | -0.0721 | -0.0724 | -0.0890 |
The clairvoyant oracle reads hidden current truth and is an unattainable upper bound, not a deployable method.
Locked paired comparisons
Delta is left minus right return/day; positive favors the left. Holm correction is within each track.
| Track | Left | Right | Delta [locked CI] | Crossed-seed CI | P(improvement) | Holm p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future time | Recurrent PPO | PPO | -0.0021 [-0.0113, 0.0079] | [-0.0121, 0.0088] | 0.309 | 0.5941 |
| Future time | Recurrent PPO | DQN | 0.0052 [-0.0018, 0.0114] | [-0.0039, 0.0122] | 0.931 | 0.1459 |
| Future time | PPO | Static spatial | 0.0128 [0.0008, 0.0234] | [-0.0003, 0.0238] | 0.980 | 0.1175 |
| Future time | Gaussian information | Static spatial | 0.0100 [0.0013, 0.0192] | [0.0010, 0.0190] | 0.988 | 0.1459 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Recurrent PPO | PPO | 0.0002 [-0.0139, 0.0116] | [-0.0205, 0.0174] | 0.558 | 1 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Recurrent PPO | DQN | 0.0029 [-0.0193, 0.0189] | [-0.0259, 0.0213] | 0.659 | 1 |
| Future time + unseen geography | PPO | Static spatial | 0.0206 [0.0090, 0.0355] | [0.0061, 0.0414] | 1.000 | 0.125 |
| Future time + unseen geography | Gaussian information | Static spatial | 0.0338 [0.0279, 0.0408] | [0.0279, 0.0408] | 1.000 | 0.125 |
Value/age-history ablation
- Future time: recurrent PPO minus values/ages-masked recurrent PPO = -0.0095 [-0.0183, -0.0029].
- Future time + unseen geography: recurrent PPO minus values/ages-masked recurrent PPO = 0.0039 [-0.0117, 0.0206].
Scientifically important outcomes
- Gaussian information had the strongest observed deployable mean on future time + unseen geography (-0.1276 versus PPO -0.1408); deep RL was not the strongest observed deployable approach. This contrast is descriptive and was not in the locked comparison family.
- Recurrent PPO did not demonstrate an advantage over PPO; both locked paired intervals include zero.
- Masking values/ages improved recurrent-PPO performance on future time, while the direction on future time + unseen geography was inconclusive.
- PPO's descriptive future-unseen minus future-known world gap was -0.0120 return/day. It is not a paired or pure-geography effect.
Interpretation boundaries
- The sensing-cost sweep re-scores frozen neural and fixed-spatial decisions. Gaussian information instead reoptimizes its analytic subset at each candidate cost.
- The unseen-world track also occurs in 2023-2024; it measures joint future-time plus geographic shift, not a pure geographic effect.
- Six held-out geographic worlds limit inferential resolution; per-world effects are released.
- The inverse-distance reward is an authored proxy, not operational monitoring utility.
- Historical replay cannot model action-dependent sensor failures or pollution interventions.
- The measurements are real EPA records with natural missingness; the benchmark is retrospective and EPA records can be revised.
See SENSESHIFT_RL_WORKSHOP_PAPER.pdf, analysis.json, paired_world_effects.parquet, and experiment_audit.json for the full method and evidence.