TITLE: Rain droplets falling on a table
QUESTION [9 upvotes]: Suppose you have a circular table of radius $R$. This table has been left outside, and it begins to rain at a constant rate of one droplet per second. The drops, which can be considered points as they fall, can only land in such a way such that they impact the surface of the table. Once they strike the table, they form a puddle of radius $r$, centered at their point of impact. What is the expected number of droplets it takes to cover the table in water?
The answer should be left in terms of $R$ and $r$. 
I have tried decomposing the problem by considering only the 1-dimensional case with line segments, but even its solution has eluded me. A potential starting point could be the discrete case of marbles falling into buckets.

REPLY [3 votes]: The expected number of droplets it takes is the sum of the probabilities that $n$ droplets don't suffice for $n \ge 0$. For the $1$-dimensional version of the problem, you can determine this probability by inclusion-exclusion. 
Geometrically, the set of $n$ impact locations corresponds to a point in a simplex with $n+1$ vertices by using barycentric coordinates, and the density is uniform. Two of the vertices are special because they correspond to the first and last segments, which have to have length at most $r$ instead of $2r$ for all points to be covered. (You can avoid this complication by covering a circle instead.) The probability that something is left uncovered is the normalized volume of the points within $R-2r$ of at least one regular vertex (by the $L^1$ distance), or within $R-r$ of one of the two special vertices. 
$$P(n~ \text{cover})= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \sum_{j=0}^2 (-1)^{i+j}{n-1 \choose i}{2\choose j} \max(0,(1-jr/R-2ir/R)^n)$$
so, the expected number of droplets it takes to cover a line segment is
$$\sum_{n=0}^\infty \bigg(1-\sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \sum_{j=0}^2 (-1)^{i+j}{n-1 \choose i}{2\choose j} \max(0,(1-jr/R-2ir/R)^n)\bigg).$$
For a particular value of $r/R$, a fixed number of terms are nonzero so this series can be simplified. For example, if $r/R = 1/3$, then the expected value is 
$$\sum_{n=0}^\infty \bigg(1 - (1^n - (n-1)(\frac13)^n - 2(\frac23)^n  + (\frac13)^n)\bigg) =\frac{15}{4}.$$