TITLE: Relevant mathematics to the recent coronavirus outbreak
QUESTION [16 upvotes]: I would like to ask about (old* and new) reliable mathematical literature relevant to various mathematical aspects of the recent coronavirus outbreak: In particular, standard statistical/mathematical models that are used to predict the spread, mathematical studies of effectiveness of various strategies, etc. 
*(Added) By old I also mean well-established models.

REPLY [5 votes]: The following paper is extremely important because it has informed the decisions of the UK government that realised (announced) on Monday 16/03/2020 that it can not afford "Herd immunity". The paper only shows the outcomes of the model and speaks about its parameters. It would of course be extremely interesting to know what exactly is the mathematics behind it. Mathematicians should try to read it.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2Ca5Ki23DWn-EGWeB3yaNE4f9GmnUcEWU_S60lsDC230AKUg4v_w82qeE