verify_carbon_dataset.py

"""
Nigeria Carbon Emissions & Economic Trajectory Interpreter — Verification
AutoScientist Challenge 2026, Part 2 — Market Analysis & News Category
Author: Hussein Adeiza (mabera)

Independently re-derives every numeric claim in the training dataset
directly from the raw, unmodified source file downloaded from
Our World in Data's GitHub repository (owid/co2-data).

Usage:
    python verify_carbon_dataset.py
    (requires owid_co2_full.csv, the raw downloaded source file,
    in the same directory)
"""

import pandas as pd
import sys


def verify_all_claims(raw_source_path, dataset_path):
    raw = pd.read_csv(raw_source_path)
    dataset = pd.read_csv(dataset_path)

    print("=" * 70)
    print("VERIFICATION: Re-deriving every numeric claim from the RAW source file")
    print("Source: Our World in Data, owid/co2-data, downloaded from GitHub")
    print("=" * 70)

    all_pass = True
    nigeria = raw[raw['country'] == 'Nigeria']
    comp2022 = raw[raw['year'] == 2022]

    # Claim 1: total vs per-capita divergence, 2000-2024
    co2_2000 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2000]['co2'].values[0]
    co2_2024 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2024]['co2'].values[0]
    pc_2000 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2000]['co2_per_capita'].values[0]
    pc_2024 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2024]['co2_per_capita'].values[0]
    total_change = round((co2_2024/co2_2000 - 1) * 100, 1)
    pc_change = round(abs((pc_2024/pc_2000 - 1) * 100), 1)
    check1 = str(total_change) in dataset.iloc[0]['completion'] and str(pc_change) in dataset.iloc[0]['completion']
    print(f"Claim 1 (2000->2024 total vs per-capita): total +{total_change}%, "
          f"per-capita -{pc_change}% — {'PASS' if check1 else 'FAIL'}")
    if not check1:
        all_pass = False

    # Claim 2: Nigeria vs South Africa per-capita ratio
    nigeria_pc = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='Nigeria']['co2_per_capita'].values[0]
    sa_pc = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='South Africa']['co2_per_capita'].values[0]
    ratio = round(sa_pc / nigeria_pc, 1)
    check2 = str(ratio) in dataset.iloc[1]['completion']
    print(f"Claim 2 (SA vs Nigeria per-capita ratio): {ratio}x — {'PASS' if check2 else 'FAIL'}")
    if not check2:
        all_pass = False

    # Claim 3: Carbon intensity ratios
    nigeria_intensity = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='Nigeria']['co2_per_gdp'].values[0]
    sa_intensity = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='South Africa']['co2_per_gdp'].values[0]
    world_intensity = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='World']['co2_per_gdp'].values[0]
    sa_ratio = round(sa_intensity/nigeria_intensity, 1)
    world_ratio = round(world_intensity/nigeria_intensity, 1)
    check3 = str(sa_ratio) in dataset.iloc[2]['completion'] and str(world_ratio) in dataset.iloc[2]['completion']
    print(f"Claim 3 (carbon intensity ratios): SA {sa_ratio}x, World {world_ratio}x — {'PASS' if check3 else 'FAIL'}")
    if not check3:
        all_pass = False

    # Claim 4: trade CO2 values
    nigeria_trade = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='Nigeria']['trade_co2'].values[0]
    sa_trade = comp2022[comp2022['country']=='South Africa']['trade_co2'].values[0]
    check4 = str(nigeria_trade) in dataset.iloc[3]['completion'] and str(sa_trade) in dataset.iloc[3]['completion']
    print(f"Claim 4 (trade CO2): Nigeria {nigeria_trade}, SA {sa_trade} — {'PASS' if check4 else 'FAIL'}")
    if not check4:
        all_pass = False

    # Claim 5: oil vs gas growth rates
    oil_2000 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2000]['oil_co2'].values[0]
    oil_2024 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2024]['oil_co2'].values[0]
    gas_2000 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2000]['gas_co2'].values[0]
    gas_2024 = nigeria[nigeria['year']==2024]['gas_co2'].values[0]
    oil_growth = round((oil_2024/oil_2000 - 1) * 100, 1)
    gas_growth = round((gas_2024/gas_2000 - 1) * 100, 1)
    check5 = str(oil_growth) in dataset.iloc[4]['completion'] and str(gas_growth) in dataset.iloc[4]['completion']
    print(f"Claim 5 (oil vs gas growth): oil +{oil_growth}%, gas +{gas_growth}% — {'PASS' if check5 else 'FAIL'}")
    if not check5:
        all_pass = False

    print()
    print("=" * 70)
    print(f"FINAL RESULT: {'ALL 5 CLAIMS VERIFIED against the raw source file' if all_pass else 'FAILURES DETECTED'}")
    print("=" * 70)

    return all_pass


if __name__ == "__main__":
    ok = verify_all_claims("owid_co2_full.csv", "final/nigeria_carbon_interpreter_dataset.csv")
    if not ok:
        sys.exit(1)