text:
agan test for heteroscedacity, and integrated across populations using meta-analysis. Results Mean trends for amphibians suggested a systematic decline, whereas birds, reptiles and mammals were increasing, on average, and freshwater fishes showed no net change in general. Origin and exploitation status did not explain the mean patterns. Large-bodied birds and range-restricted mammals exhibited stronger increases compared to their counterparts. For all taxonomic groups, population fluctuations have been increasing overall. Main conclusions Addressing amphibian declines should be a priority in temperate regions. Comparatively, the lack of broad declines in the other vertebrate classes is promising and not attributable to increases in alien or non-exploited species. Yet, caution remains warranted given that patterns of increasing variance suggested that populations are generally becoming more unstable, even in temperate, developed nations, with arguably the strongest environmental regulations.},
author = {Leung, Brian and Greenberg, Daniel A. and Green, David M.},
doi = {10.1111/ddi.12636},
editor = {Wintle, Brendan},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Leung, Greenberg, Green - 2017 - Trends in mean growth and stability in temperate vertebrate populations.pdf:pdf},
issn = {13669516},
journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1372--1380},
title = {{Trends in mean growth and stability in temperate vertebrate populations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ddi.12636},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dallimer2015,
abstract = {Ecosystem service provision varies temporally in response to natural and human-induced factors, yet research in this field is dominated by analyses that ignore the time-lags and feedbacks that occur within socio-ecological systems. The implications of this have been unstudied, but are central to understanding how service delivery will alter due to future land-use/cover change. Urban areas are expanding faster than any other land-use, making cities ideal study systems for examining such legacy effects. We assess the extent to which present-day provision of a suite of eight ecosystem services, quantified using field-gathered data, is explained by current and historical (stretching back 150 years) landcover. Five services (above-ground carbon density, recreational use, bird species richness, bird density, and a metric of recreation experience quality (continuity with the past) were more strongly determined by past landcover. Time-lags ranged from 20 (bird species richness and density) to over 100 years (above-ground carbon density). Historical landcover, therefore, can have a strong influence on current service provision. By ignoring such time-lags, we risk drawing incorrect conclusions regarding how the distribution and quality of some ecosystem services may alter in response to land-use/cover change. Although such a finding adds to the complexity of predicting future scenarios, ecologists may find that they can link the biodiversity conservation agenda to the preservation of cultural heritage, and that certain courses of action provide win-win outcomes across multiple environmental and cultural goods.},
author = {Dallimer, Martin and Davies, Zoe G. and Diaz-Porras, Daniel F. and Irvine, Katherine N. and Maltby, Lorraine and Warren, Philip H. and Armsworth, Paul R. and Gaston, Kevin J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.015},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Dallimer et al. - 2015 - Historical influences on the current provision of multiple ecosystem services.pdf:pdf},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Above-ground carbon,Cultural heritage,Historical ecology,Land-use change,Species richness,Urban greenspace},
month = {mar},
pages = {307--317},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Historical influences on the current provision of multiple ecosystem services}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000175 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000175},
volume = {31},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hothorn2011,
author = {Hothorn, Torsten and M{\"{u}}ller, J and Schr{\"{o}}der, B},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2011/Hothorn, M{\"{u}}ller, Schr{\"{o}}der{\_}2011{\_}Decomposing environmental, spatial, and spatiotemporal components of species distributions.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Ecological {\ldots}},
keywords = {boosting,model,model selection,nonstationarity,spatial autocorrelation,species distribution,structured additive model,variable selection},
number = {2},
pages = {329--347},
title = {{Decomposing environmental, spatial, and spatiotemporal components of species distributions}},
url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/10-0602.1},
volume = {81},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Erb2013,
author = {Erb, Karl-Heinz and Haberl, Helmut and Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck and Kuemmerle, Tobias and Lindner, Marcus and M{\"{u}}ller, Daniel and Verburg, Peter H and Reenberg, Anette},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.010},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Erb et al. - 2013 - A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity.pdf:pdf},
issn = {18773435},
journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {464--470},
title = {{A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1877343513000894},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{FAUVELOT2006,
abstract = {We investigated the short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of the tropical butterfly Drupadia theda Felder (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Populations were sampled from five landscapes in East Kalimantan (Borneo, Indonesia) which were differentially disturbed by selective logging and the 1997/1998 El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced drought and fires. Sampling occurred before (in 1997) and after the forest fires (in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2004). Drupadia theda populations underwent serious population size reductions following the 1997/1998 ENSO event. For a total of 208 individuals, we sequenced a 509-bp segment of mtDNA containing the control region plus the 5' end of the 12S rDNA gene. Haplotype diversity in D. theda populations ranged from 0.468 to 0.953. Just after the 1997/1998 ENSO event, number of recorded individuals and genetic diversity were very low in D. theda populations sampled in the two severely burned areas and in a small pristine forest fragment that was surrounded by burned forest and thereby affected by drought. Interestingly, higher levels of genetic diversity were observed in logged forest compared to proximate pristine forest. After 1998, the genetic composition within the three ENSO-disturbed areas diverged. In the twice-burned forest, the genetic diversity in 1999 already approached pre-fire levels, while it remained nearly unchanged in proximate once-burned forest. Our data suggest that the 1997/1998 ENSO-induced drought and fires caused massive reductions in the genetic diversity of D. theda and that population recoveries were linked to their geographical position relative to patches of unburned forest (and thus to source populations).},
author = {Fauvelot, C. and Cleary, D F R and Menken, S B J},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.02920.x},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Fauvelot, Cleary, Menken - 2006 - Short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of Indonesian populations of the b.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0962-1083},
issn = {0962-1083},
journal = {Molecular ecology},
keywords = {Animals,Butterflies,DNA,Electron Transport Complex IV,Electron Transport Complex IV: genetics,Fires,Genetic Variation,Genetics,Haplotypes,Haplotypes: genetics,Mitochondrial,Population},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2069--81},
pmid = {16780425},
title = {{Short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of Indonesian populations of the butterfly Drupadia theda in East Kalimantan.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16780425 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.02920.x},
volume = {15},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Norfolk,
author = {Norfolk, Olivia and Jung, Martin and Platts, Philip J. and Malaki, Phillista and Odeny, Dickens and Marchant, Robert},
doi = {10.1111/aje.12383},
issn = {01416707},
journal = {African Journal of Ecology},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {530--540},
title = {{Birds in the matrix: the role of agriculture in avian conservation in the Taita Hills, Kenya}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/aje.12383},
volume = {55},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lemoine2003,
abstract = {Little evidence exists demonstrating that global climate change leads to systematic changes in the structure of ecological communities. For avian communities, one would expect warmer winters to lead to declines in numbers of long-distance migrants if resident birds benefit from warmer winters and impose increasing competitive pressure on migrants. To study the potential influence of global climate change on long-distance migrants, we correlated the number of all species of land birds and the number and proportion of long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants, and residents in 595 grid cells across Europe. We used mean temperature of the coldest month, mean spring temperature, and spring precipitation as measures of climatic conditions in winter and during the breeding period. The number and proportion of long-distance migrants decreased with increasing winter temperature, decreasing spring temperature, and increasing spring precipitation. We used this spatial relationship between bird community structure and climate in Europe to make predictions about changes in bird communities of the Lake Constance region, Central Europe, between two census periods ( 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 ). Winter temperature in this region increased significantly between the two censuses, whereas spring temperature and precipitation did not change. As predicted from the models, the proportion of long-distance migrants decreased and the number and proportion of short-distance migrants and residents increased between the two censuses. The significant declines of the long-distance migrants in the Lake Constance region are of a magnitude that can be explained by the observed climate change. Our results suggest that increasingly warmer winters may pose a more severe threat to long-distance migrants than to the other bird groups.},
author = {Lemoine, Nicole and Bohning-Gaese, Katrin},
doi = {10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01389.x},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2003/Lemoine, Bohning-Gaese{\_}2003{\_}Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Species Richness of Long-Distance Migrants.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0888-8892},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
keywords = {Climate Change,Impact on Species Richness,Migration,Paper,Study,conservation,diversity},
mendeley-tags = {Paper,Study},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {577--586},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Species Richness of Long-Distance Migrants}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01389.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01389.x/pdf},
volume = {17},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Pekel2016,
abstract = {The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity1 and affects climate2, 3, biological diversity4 and human wellbeing5, 6. Global data sets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced from inventories and national descriptions7, statistical extrapolation of regional data8 and satellite imagery9, 10, 11, 12, but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge. Here, using three million Landsat satellite images13, we quantify changes in global surface water over the past 32 years at 30-metre resolution. We record the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence. Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior, though new permanent bodies of surface water covering 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere. All continental regions show a net increase in permanent water, except Oceania, which has a fractional (one per cent) net loss. Much of the increase is from reservoir filling, although climate change14 is also implicated. Loss is more geographically concentrated than gain. Over 70 per cent of global net permanent water loss occurred in the Middle East and Central Asia, linked to drought and human actions including river diversion or damming and unregulated withdrawal15, 16. Losses in Australia17 and the USA18 linked to long-term droughts are also evident. This globally consistent, validated data set shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered to show how surface water is altered by human activities. We anticipate that this freely available data will improve the modelling of surface forcing, provide evidence of state and change in wetland ecotones (the transition areas between biomes), and inform water-management decision-making.},
author = {Pekel, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Cottam, Andrew and Gorelick, Noel and Belward, Alan S.},
doi = {10.1038/nature20584},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Pekel et al. - 2016 - High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {6720052547653},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {dec},
number = {7633},
pages = {418--422},
pmid = {27926733},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature20584},
volume = {540},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Harfoot2014,
abstract = {Aim Human impacts on the biosphere are a matter of urgent and growing concern, with ecologists increasingly being asked to project biodiversity futures. The Intergovernmental Platformon Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is likely to comprehensively assess such projections, yet despite being widely used and potentially critical tools for analysing socio-environmental futures, integrated assessment models (IAMs) have received little attention from ecological modellers. We aim to raise awareness and understanding of IAMs among ecologists by describ- ing the structure and composition of IAMs, assessing their utility for biodiversity projections and identifying limitations that hamper greater interaction between scientists using IAMs and those using ecological models.We also hope to inspire more accessible and applicable models by suggesting development needs for IAMs. Methods We conduct a systematic review of four state-of-the-art IAMs, which describes and contrasts keymodel features and analyses six aspects of IAMs that are of fundamental interest to ecologists. Conclusions IAMs could be valuable for modelling biodiversity futures; however, current IAMs were not developed for this application and challenges remain for ecologists looking to use their outputs. Separating and understanding the differ- ences resulting from IAM formulation and those resulting from specific scenario assumptions is currently problematic, and current IAMs may be unable to accu- rately represent environmental conditions for both Earth-system projections and for building robust models of biodiversity because key ecological processes are absent. We suggest that model intercomparisons would identify differences in model dynamics, and detailed studies of howdynamical interactions between com- ponents influence behaviour would address why such differences arise. Bio- economic fisheries models and agriculture pollination models provide starting points for integrating key ecological feedbacks within IAMs. Ultimately, making IAMs more accessible within themultidisciplinary study of global change, drawing on user-centred research,would enable more resolved, reliable and accurate assess- ment of how Earth's socio-ecological system is approaching planetary boundaries. Keywords},
author = {Harfoot, Michael and Tittensor, Derek P. and Newbold, Tim and McInerny, Greg and Smith, Matthew J. and Scharlemann, J{\"{o}}rn P W},
doi = {10.1111/geb.12100},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2014/Harfoot et al.{\_}2014{\_}Integrated assessment models for ecologists the present and the future.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1466-8238},
issn = {1466822X},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
keywords = {AIM,GCAM,IMAGE,Integrated assessment models,Land use,Land-cover projections,Land-use projections,MESSAGE,Scenarios,Theory},
mendeley-tags = {Land use,Theory},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {124--143},
title = {{Integrated assessment models for ecologists: the present and the future}},
volume = {23},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pidgeon2007,
author = {Pidgeon, A. M. and Radeloff, V. C. and Flather, C. H. and Lepczyk, C. A. and Clayton, M. K. and Hawbaker, T. J. and Hammer, R. B.},
doi = {10.1890/06-1489.1},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Pidgeon et al. - 2007 - Associations of forest bird species richness with housing and landscape patterns across the USA.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1051-0761},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
keywords = {bbs,biodiversity,birds,breeding bird survey,census,estimated richness,forest,guilds,housing,human population,landscape,national land cover data,nlcd,s,u,woodland},
month = {oct},
number = {7},
pages = {1989--2010},
title = {{Associations of forest bird species richness with housing and landscape patterns across the USA}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/06-1489.1},
volume = {17},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Rooney2007,
abstract = {Quantitative studies of biotic homogenization can provide useful insights into conservation problems when used appropriately, but can be dangerously misleading when they are not. By separating the concept of biotic homogenization at the global scale from the study of biotic homogenization at spatially- and temporally-explicit scales, researchers can avoid many of the subtle pitfalls inherent in homogenization studies. {\textcopyright} 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
author = {Rooney, Thomas P. and Olden, Julian D. and Leach, Mark K. and Rogers, David A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2006.07.008},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Rooney et al. - 2007 - Biotic homogenization and conservation prioritization.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0006-3207},
issn = {00063207},
journal = {Biological Conservation},
keywords = {Beta-diversity,Biotic differentiation,Complementarity,Species invasions,Species turnover},
month = {jan},
number = {3},
pages = {447--450},
title = {{Biotic homogenization and conservation prioritization}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0006320706003065},
volume = {134},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Harrison2014,
abstract = {1. Partitioning biodiversity change spatially and temporally is required for effective manage- ment, both to determine whether action is required and whether it should be applied at a regional level or targeted more locally. As biodiversity is a multifaceted concept, comparative analyses of different indices, focussing on different components of biodiversity change (even- ness vs. abundance), give better information than a single headline index. 2. We model changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of British breeding birds using generalized additive models applied to count data collected between 1994 and 2011. Abun- dance estimates, accounting for differences in detectability, are then used in community- specific (farmland and woodland) biodiversity indices. Temporal trends in biodiversity, and change points in those trends, are assessed at different spatial scales. The geometric mean of relative abundance, a headline indicator of biodiversity change, is assessed together with a goodness-of-fit evenness measure focussing separately on the rare and common species in the communities. 3. Our analysis reveals predominantly declining trends in biodiversity indices for farmland and woodland bird communities in southern and eastern England, perhaps signalling environ- mental deterioration in this part of the country. Conversely, our results also show generally more positive trends in the north of Britain, consistent with north–south gradient expecta- tions from the effects of climate change. We also reveal predominantly positive changes in evenness for the common species and negative changes in evenness for the rarer species in the communities, consistent with previously documented homogenization in bird communities. 4. Synthesis and applications. Bird populations are seen as good indicators of ecosystem health, and trends for different communities can be indicative of wider biodiversity changes within their respective habitats. However, temporal trends in biodiversity at the national level may miss opposing trends occurring at different locations within the nation. We develop methods that allow assessment of how temporal trends vary spatially and whether these trends differ for the rare and common species in the respective communities. Our methods may be used to test hypotheses about the processes that generate the trends.},
author = {Harrison, Philip J. and Buckland, Stephen T. and Yuan, Yuan and Elston, David A. and Brewer, Mark J. and Johnston, Alison and Pearce-Higgins, James W.},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12316},
editor = {Clough, Yann},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Harrison et al. - 2014 - Assessing trends in biodiversity over space and time using the example of British breeding birds.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1365-2664},
issn = {00218901},
journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
keywords = {Change points in trends,Generalized additive models,Geometric mean index,Goodness-of-fit measures,Long-term trends,Rare species,Spatio-temporal modelling},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {1650--1660},
title = {{Assessing trends in biodiversity over space and time using the example of British breeding birds}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1365-2664.12316},
volume = {51},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fleishman2003,
author = {Fleishman, Erica and Nally, RM and Fay, JP},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2003/Fleishman, Nally, Fay{\_}2003{\_}Validation tests of predictive models of butterfly occurrence based on environmental variables.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Conservation biology},
keywords = {Butterfly,Prediction,SDM,Validation},
mendeley-tags = {Butterfly,Prediction,SDM,Validation},
number = {3},
pages = {806--817},
title = {{Validation tests of predictive models of butterfly occurrence based on environmental variables}},
volume = {17},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Murray2009,
abstract = {Recent concerns regarding the decline of plant and pollinator species, and the impact on ecosystem functioning, has focused attention on the local and global threats to bee diversity. As evidence for bee declines is now accumulating from over broad taxonomic and geographic scales, we review the role of ecology in bee conservation at the levels of species, populations and communities. Bee populations and communities are typified by considerable spatiotemporal variation; whereby autecological traits, population size and growth rate, and plant-pollinator network architecture all play a role in their vulnerability to extinction. As contemporary insect conservation management is broadly based on species- and habitat-targeted approaches, ecological data will be central to integrating management strategies into a broader, landscape scale of dynamic, interconnected habitats capable of delivering bee conservation in the context of global environmental change.},
author = {Murray, TE Tom{\'{a}}s E. and Kuhlmann, Michael and Potts, Simon G. SG and Park, Oak and Museum, Natural History and Road, Cromwell and Gate, Earley},
doi = {10.1051/apido/2009015},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2009/Murray et al.{\_}2009{\_}Conservation ecology of bees populations, species and communities.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0044-8435},
journal = {Apidologie},
keywords = {Conservation Ecology,Review,biodiversity,community,conservation,plant-pollinator,population},
mendeley-tags = {Conservation Ecology,Review},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {211--236},
title = {{Conservation ecology of bees: populations, species and communities}},
url = {http://www.apidologie.org/10.1051/apido/2009015 http://www.apidologie.org/articles/apido/abs/2009/03/m08162/m08162.html},
volume = {40},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Byerlee2014,
abstract = {The role of intensification in minimizing cropland and slowing deforestation is often disputed. We make a broad distinction between technology-induced and market-induced intensification. We find evidence at the local level that technical progress in a few cases may induce land expansion although much depends on where the technical change occurs (near the forest frontier or away from it) and the type of market (local or global). At a global level, technology-driven intensification is strongly land saving although deforestation in specific regions is likely to continue to occur. Market-driven intensification, however, is often a major cause of land expansion and deforestation especially for export commodities in times of high prices. Beyond land saving, the type of intensification matters a lot for environmental outcomes. Finally, technology-driven intensification by itself is unlikely to arrest deforestation unless accompanied by stronger governance of natural resources. {\textcopyright} 2014 The Authors.},
author = {Byerlee, Derek and Stevenson, James and Villoria, Nelson},
doi = {10.1016/j.gfs.2014.04.001},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Byerlee, Stevenson, Villoria - 2014 - Does intensification slow crop land expansion or encourage deforestation.pdf:pdf},
issn = {22119124},
journal = {Global Food Security},
keywords = {Crop yields,Deforestation,Global markets,Intensification,Land use changes},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {92--98},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Does intensification slow crop land expansion or encourage deforestation?}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2014.04.001 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221191241400011X},
volume = {3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{DeFries2010a,
abstract = {Nature Geoscience 3, 178 (2010). doi:10.1038/ngeo756},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {1112.0637},
author = {DeFries, Ruth S. and Rudel, Thomas and Uriarte, Maria and Hansen, Matthew},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo756},
eprint = {1112.0637},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/DeFries et al. - 2010 - Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {178--181},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo756{\%}5Cnhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/suppinfo/ngeo756{\_}S1.html http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo756},
volume = {3},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Hautier2015,
author = {Hautier, Yann and Tilman, David and Isbell, Forest and Seabloom, Eric W. and Borer, Elisabeth T and Reich, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa1788},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Hautier et al. - 2015 - Anthropogenic environmental changes affect ecosystem stability via biodiversity.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {apr},
number = {6232},
pages = {336--340},
title = {{Anthropogenic environmental changes affect ecosystem stability via biodiversity}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa1788},
volume = {348},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Scholes2005,
abstract = {The nations of the world have set themselves a target of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. Here, we propose a biodiversity intactness index (BII) for assessing progress towards this target that is simple and practical--but sensitive to important factors that influence biodiversity status--and which satisfies the criteria for policy relevance set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Application of the BII is demonstrated on a large region (4 x 10(6) km2) of southern Africa. The BII score in the year 2000 is about 84{\%}: in other words, averaged across all plant and vertebrate species in the region, populations have declined to 84{\%} of their presumed pre-modern levels. The taxonomic group with the greatest loss is mammals, at 71{\%} of pre-modern levels, and the ecosystem type with the greatest loss is grassland, with 74{\%} of its former populations remaining. During the 1990s, a population decline of 0.8{\%} is estimated to have occurred.},
author = {Scholes, R J and Biggs, R},
doi = {10.1038/nature03289},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2005/Scholes, Biggs{\_}2005{\_}A biodiversity intactness index.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Africa,Algorithms,Animals,Biodiversity,Conservation of Natural Resources,Conservation of Natural Resources: methods,Data Collection,Ecology,Ecology: methods,Geography,International Cooperation,Mammals,Mammals: physiology,Plant Physiological Phenomena,Population Dynamics,Sensitivity and Specificity,Southern,Time Factors},
month = {mar},
number = {7029},
pages = {45--9},
pmid = {15744293},
title = {{A biodiversity intactness index.}},
volume = {434},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Sauer1994,
abstract = {Because count data collected in many bird surveys are only an index to population size, factors that can influence the counts must be identified and incorporated into analyses. Observer quality is often ignored in analyses of population changes from survey data, but observers differ in methods and capabilities and, hence, tend to count different numbers of birds. We assess the consequences of between-observer differences in counts for estimation of population trends in the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Observer differences in numbers of birds counted were found in 50{\%} of the 369 species we examined. For many species, observers in later years tended to count more birds than observers in earlier years, suggesting an increase in observer quality over time. Analysis of population trends from 1966 through 1991 indicates that failure to include observers as covariables in the analysis results in an overly optimistic view of population trends.},
author = {Sauer, John R and Peterjohn, Bruce G and Link, William A},
doi = {10.2307/4088504},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Sauer, Peterjohn, Link - 1994 - Observer differences in the North American Breeding Bird Survey.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {00048038},
issn = {0004-8038},
journal = {The Auk},
number = {1},
pages = {50--62},
title = {{Observer differences in the North American Breeding Bird Survey}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4088504 http://www.jstor.org/stable/4088504{\%}0Ahttp://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/4088504.pdf?acceptTC=true},
volume = {111},
year = {1994}
}
@article{Guillera-Arroita2017,
abstract = {Building useful models of species distributions requires attention to several important issues, one being imperfect detection of species. Data sets of species detections are likely to suffer from false absence records. Depending on the type of survey, false positive records can also be a problem. Disregarding these observation errors may lead to important biases in model estimation as well as overconfidence about precision. The severity of the problem depends on the intensity of these errors and how they correlate with environmental characteristics (e.g. where species detectability strongly depends on habitat features). A powerful modelling framework that accounts for imperfect detection in the modelling of species distributions has developed in the last 10-15 years. Fundamental to this framework is that data must be collected in a way that is informative about the observation process. For instance, such data can be in the form of multiple detection/non-detection records obtained from several visits/observers/detection methods at (at least) some of the sites, or from data on times to detection within a survey visit. The framework can extend to studying species' range dynamics and the modelling of communities, as well as approaches for analysing data on abundance and multiple occupancy states (rather than binary presence/absence). This paper summarizes these modelling advances, discusses evidence about effects of imperfect detection and the difficulties of working with it, and concludes with the current outlook for future research and application of these methods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
author = {Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta},
doi = {10.1111/ecog.02445},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Guillera-Arroita - 2017 - Modelling of species distributions, range dynamics and communities under imperfect detection advances, challen.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1600-0587},
issn = {09067590},
journal = {Ecography},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {281--295},
title = {{Modelling of species distributions, range dynamics and communities under imperfect detection: advances, challenges and opportunities}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecog.02445},
volume = {40},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Oedekoven2017,
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:physics/0608246v3},
author = {Oedekoven, Cornelia S. and Elston, David A. and Harrison, Philip J. and Brewer, Mark J. and Buckland, Stephen T. and Johnston, Alison and Foster, Simon and Pearce-Higgins, James W.},
doi = {10.1111/2041-210X.12811},
editor = {Isaac, Nick},
eprint = {0608246v3},
isbn = {4955139574},
issn = {2041210X},
journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
keywords = {UKCP09 climate projections,climate change,decomposition of spatial,generalized additive models,generalized linear models,spatio-temporal modelling,species abundance,temporal and anomaly eff},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1690--1702},
pmid = {27935037},
primaryClass = {arXiv:physics},
title = {{Attributing changes in the distribution of species abundance to weather variables using the example of British breeding birds}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/2041-210X.12811},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dyer2015,
author = {Dyer, Rodney J.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054150},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Dyer - 2015 - Population Graphs and Landscape Genetics.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1543-592X},
journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
keywords = {connectivity,landscape genetics,population graphs,spatial structure},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {annurev--ecolsys--112414--054150},
title = {{Population Graphs and Landscape Genetics}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054150},
volume = {46},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Carlyle2017,
author = {Carlyle, Molly and Dumay, Nicolas and Roberts, Karen and McAndrew, Amy and Stevens, Tobias and Lawn, Will and Morgan, Celia J. A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-06305-w},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Carlyle et al. - 2017 - Improved memory for information learnt before alcohol use in social drinkers tested in a naturalistic setting.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {4159801706},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6213},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Improved memory for information learnt before alcohol use in social drinkers tested in a naturalistic setting}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06305-w},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Frey2007,
abstract = {An unprecedented collection of 2161 geolocated, irregularly spaced field observations of land cover spanning {\&}{\#}8764;106 km2 throughout West Siberia suggests that currently available land cover classification products are remarkably poor indicators of vegetation type and water body extent in this northern wetland environment. The ground-truth data are compared with (1) the Global Land Cover Characteristics database derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data (GLCC.AVHRR), (2) the Global Land Cover Classification derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data (GLCC.MODIS), (3) the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), and (4) the West Siberian Lowland Peatland Database (WSLPD) using: (1) all land cover categories and (2) permanent wetland and water body categories only. Overall agreement with ground observations of land cover is only 21{\%} for the GLCC.AVHRR database and 11{\%} for the GLCC.MODIS database. However, at a much broader scale (one degree of latitude) there is improved qualitative agreement between vegetation classes, with some notable exceptions: (1) at low latitudes ({\&}{\#}8764;54�N{\&}{\#}8211;58�N), both the GLCC.AVHRR and GLCC.MODIS databases underestimate woody savannas in favor of croplands; (2) at midlatitudes ({\&}{\#}8764;58�N{\&}{\#}8211;64�N), the GLCC.AVHRR database underestimates evergreen needleleaf forest in favor of mixed forest; and (3) at high latitudes ({\&}{\#}8764;64�N{\&}{\#}8211;68�N), both the GLCC.AVHRR and GLCC.MODIS databases underestimate deciduous needleleaf forest in favor of woody savannas or open shrublands, respectively. It is clear that all four data databases significantly underestimate permanent wetlands and water bodies, although those specifically developed for this purpose (GLWD and WSPLD) perform better than the more widely used, multiclass land cover products. For permanent wetlands, agreement with our ground data is only 2{\%} for GLCC.MODIS, 23{\%} for GLCC.AVHRR, 45{\%} for GLWD and 56{\%} for WSLPD. Agreement with open water bodies is even poorer (0{\&}{\#}8211;5{\%}). These results raise into question the efficacy of incorporating currently available land cover products into terrestrial ecosystem models in northern wetland environments.},
author = {Frey, Karen E. and Smith, Laurence C.},
doi = {10.1029/2006GB002706},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Frey, Smith - 2007 - How well do we know northern land cover Comparison of four global vegetation and wetland products with a new ground.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0886-6236},
issn = {08866236},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
keywords = {Arctic land cover,West Siberia,data intercomparison,doi:10.1029/2006GB002706,global land cover products,http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002706,northern wetlands,peatlands},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
title = {{How well do we know northern land cover? Comparison of four global vegetation and wetland products with a new ground-truth database for West Siberia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006GB002706},
volume = {21},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Li2016,
author = {Li, Haipeng and Xiang-Yu, Jinggong and Dai, Guangyi and Gu, Zhili and Ming, Chen and Yang, Zongfeng and Ryder, Oliver A. and Li, Wen-Hsiung and Fu, Yun-Xin and Zhang, Ya-Ping},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1616804113},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Li et al. - 2016 - Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
pages = {201616804},
title = {{Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1616804113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schmeller2015,
author = {Schmeller, Dirk S. and Julliard, Romain and Bellingham, Peter J. and B{\"{o}}hm, Monika and Brummitt, Neil and Chiarucci, Alessandro and Couvet, Denis and Elmendorf, Sarah and Forsyth, David M. and Moreno, Jaime Garc{\'{i}}a and Gregory, Richard D. and Magnusson, William E. and Martin, Laura J. and McGeoch, Melodie a. and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Pereira, Henrique M. and Proen{\c{c}}a, V{\^{a}}nia and a.M. van Swaay, Chris and Yahara, Tetsukazu and Belnap, Jayne},
doi = {10.1016/j.jnc.2015.03.003},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Schmeller et al. - 2015 - Towards a global terrestrial species monitoring program.pdf:pdf},
issn = {16171381},
journal = {Journal for Nature Conservation},
pages = {51--57},
title = {{Towards a global terrestrial species monitoring program}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1617138115000278},
volume = {25},
year = {2015}
}
@book{Turner2001,
abstract = {Monica Turner, along with Bob Gardner and Bob O'Neill (past colleagues from Oak Ridge National Laboratory), wrote a text book for landscape ecology that was published in 2001. This book provides an introduction for ecologists and resource managers to the concepts and approaches of landscape ecology. It is used as a text in a number of graduate-level courses in landscape ecology},
address = {New York, NY},
author = {Turner, Monica G and Gardner, Robert H},
doi = {10.1007/978-1-4939-2794-4},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Turner, Gardner - 2015 - Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {978-1-4939-2793-7},
keywords = {Landscape ecology,patter,process},
pages = {404},
publisher = {Springer New York},
title = {{Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-1-4939-2794-4},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Botta2015,
author = {Botta, Filippo and Eriksen, Casper and Fontaine, Micha{\"{e}}l C. and Guillot, Gilles},
doi = {10.1111/2041-210X.12424},
editor = {Yu, Douglas},
issn = {2041210X},
journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1270--1277},
title = {{Enhanced computational methods for quantifying the effect of geographic and environmental isolation on genetic differentiation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/2041-210X.12424},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ellis2011,
abstract = {Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.},
author = {Ellis, Erle C},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0331},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Ellis - 2011 - Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1364503X (ISSN)},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
keywords = {agriculture,biodiversity,biogeochemistry,global change,human-dominated ecosystems,land-use change},
month = {mar},
number = {1938},
pages = {1010--1035},
pmid = {21282158},
title = {{Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere}},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1938/1010.full.html{\#}{\%}5Cnhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1938/1010.ful{\%}5Cnhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/letters/submit/roypta;369/ http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi},
volume = {369},
year = {2011}
}
@techreport{SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity2014,
abstract = {Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the term given to the variety of life on Earth. It is the combination of life forms and their interactions with one another, and with the physical environment that has made Earth habitable for humans. Ecosystems provide the basic necessities of life, offer protection from natural disasters and disease, and are the foundation for human culture. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment—a scientific undertaking involving over 1300 experts working in 95 countries—recently confirmed the overwhelming contributions made by natural ecosystems to human life and well-being. Yet even as we begin to better understand what is at stake, genes, species and habitats are rapidly being lost. Concern over the loss of biodiversity and the recognition of its important role in supporting human life motivated the creation, in 1992, of the Convention on Biological Diversity, a legally binding global treaty. The Convention encompasses three equally important and complementary objectives: the conservation of biodiversity, the sustainable use of its components, and the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources. Participation in the Convention is nearly universal, a sign that our global society is well aware of the need to work together to ensure the survival of life on Earth. In 2002, the Conference of the Parties of the Convention adopted a Strategic Plan, with the mission “to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level, as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth”. Th is 2010 target was subsequently endorsed by the Heads of State and Government at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa. Recently, world leaders meeting at the 2005 World Summit of the United Nations reiterated their commitment to meeting the 2010 target. In order to assess progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity Target, the Conference of the Parties has established supporting goals and targets and identified indicators for evaluating biodiversity status and trends. The second edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook makes use of these indicators and targets to describe current trends in biodiversity and prospects for achieving the 2010 target. Why biodiversity loss is a concern The services provided by healthy, biodiverse ecosystems are the foundation for human well-being. However, out of the 24 ecosystem services recently assessed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 15 are in decline. These include the provision of fresh water, marine fishery production, the number and quality of places of spiritual and religious value, the ability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself of pollutants, natural hazard regulation, pollination, and the capacity of agricultural ecosystems to provide pest control. Biodiversity loss disrupts ecosystem functions, making ecosystems more vulnerable to shocks and disturbances, less resilient, and less able to supply humans with needed services. The damage to coastal communities from floods and storms, for example, can increase dramatically where protective wetland habitats have been lost or degraded. The consequences of biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption are often harshest for the rural poor, who depend most immediately upon local ecosystem services for their livelihoods and who are often the least able to access or afford substitutes when these become degraded. In fact, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment has confirmed that biodiversity loss poses a significant barrier to meeting the needs of the world's poorest, as set out in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Garnering the political will to halt ecosystem degradation will depend on clearly demonstrating to policy makers and society at large the full contribution made by ecosystems to poverty alleviation efforts and to national economic growth more generally. Apart from nature's immediate usefulness to humankind, many would argue that every life form has an intrinsic right to exist, and deserves protection. We must also recognize the right of future generations to inherit, as we have, a planet thriving with life, and that continues to afford opportunities to reap the economic, cultural and spiritual benefits of nature. The 2010 target: establishing current trends In using the Convention's indicators to survey current trends, Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 demonstrates that biodiversity is being lost at all levels, for example:  Deforestation, mainly through conversion of forests to agricultural land, continues at an alarmingly high rate. Th e loss of primary forest since 2000 has been estimated at 6 million hectares annually. Coastal and marine ecosystems have been heavily impacted by human activities, with degradation leading to a reduced coverage of kelp forests, seagrasses and corals. In the Caribbean, average hard coral cover declined from about 50{\%} to 10{\%} in the last three decades. Some 35{\%} of mangroves have been lost in the last two decades in countries for which adequate data are available.  Trends of some 3,000 wild populations of species show a consistent decline in average species abundance of about 40{\%} between 1970 and 2000; inland water species declined by 50{\%}, while marine and terrestrial species both declined by around 30{\%}. Studies of amphibians globally, African mammals, birds in agricultural lands, British butterflies, Caribbean and Indo-Pacific corals, and commonly harvested fish species show declines in the majority of species assessed.  More species are becoming threatened with extinction. The status of bird species show a continuing deterioration across all biomes over the last two decades and preliminary findings for other major groups, such as amphibians and mammals, indicate that the situation is likely worse than for birds. Between 12{\%} and 52{\%} of species within well-studied higher taxa are threatened with extinction. In addition, forests and other natural habitats are increasingly fragmented, affecting their ability to maintain biodiversity and deliver ecosystem goods and services. Within the 292 large river systems assessed, for instance, only 12{\%} of river-basin area was unaffected by dam-based impacts. The intensification of fishing has led to the decline in large high-value fishes, such as tuna, cod, sea bass and swordfish, which are high up in the food chain. In the North Atlantic, the number of large fish has declined by two-thirds in the last 50 years. The threats to biodiversity are generally increasing. Humans contribute more reactive nitrogen to ecosystems globally than do all natural processes combined. The rate and risk of alien species introductions have increased signifi cantly in the recent past, and will continue to rise as a result of increased travel, trade and tourism. Overall, unsustainable consumption continues, as indicated by our growing global ecological footprint. Th e global demand for resources now exceeds the biological capacity of the Earth to renew these resources by some 20{\%}. On the positive side, the number and area of protected areas is increasing, although most ecoregions fall well short of the target to protect 10{\%} of their surface. Marine ecosystems in particular are poorly represented, with approximately 0.6{\%} of the ocean's surface area and about 1.4{\%} of the coastal shelf areas protected. On the basis of information available, a common message emerges: biodiversity is in decline at all levels and geographical scales. However, targeted response options—whether it be the creation of protected areas, or resource management and pollution prevention programmes—can reverse this trend for specific habitats or species. Table 1 gives an overview of the state of indicator development and data. Several indicators have sufficient resolution to determine a change in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, including: habitat change in certain types of ecosystems; trends in abundance and distribution of selected species; the status of threatened species; the Marine Trophic Index; and nitrogen deposition. Others may be developed for use by 2010. Tools of the Convention for addressing biodiversity loss The Conference of the Parties has responded to the challenge of biodiversity loss by developing a comprehensive body of policy relating to the Convention's three objectives. Policy instruments include: thematic programmes of work of the Convention, covering seven major biomes; cross-cutting programmes of work on technology transfer, taxonomy and protected areas; and principles and guidelines on the ecosystem approach, sustainable use, invasive species, environmental impact assessment and other issues. In addition, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, adopted as a legal instrument in its own right in 2000, aims to ensure that biotechnology does not adversely affect biodiversity or human health. At the national level, provisions of the Convention and the policy decisions of the Conference of the Parties are translated into actions through national biodiversity strategies and action plans (NBSAPs). As Parties hold primary responsibility for implementation, NBSAPs are central to achieving the objectives of the Convention. Ten years after entry into force of the Convention, and recognizing the need for more effective and coherent implementation, the Conference of the Parties adopted, in 2002, a Strategic Plan. Progress towards the four goals of the Strategic Plan is mixed: Reasonable progress is being made towards Goal 1—to promote international cooperation in support of the Convention. Th e Convention is playing a major role in setting the agenda among biodiversity-related conventions and organizations. However, there remain opportunities to increase policy coherence with other international instruments, particularly under the trade regime; Goal 2 is to ensure that Parties have improved fi},
address = {Montreal, Canada},
author = {CBD and {Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity}},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity - 2014 - Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 A mid-term assessment of progress towards t.pdf:pdf},
institution = {Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity},
isbn = {929225040X},
issn = {0002-9262},
keywords = {GBO},
mendeley-tags = {GBO},
month = {sep},
number = {6},
pages = {155},
title = {{Global Biodiversity Outlook 4}},
url = {http://www.cbd.int/gbo4/},
volume = {172},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rybicki2013,
abstract = {The species-area relationship (SAR) has been used to predict the numbers of species going extinct due to habitat loss, but other researchers have maintained that SARs overestimate extinctions and instead one should use the endemics-area relationship (EAR) to predict extinctions. Here, we employ spatially explicit simulations of large numbers of species in spatially heterogeneous landscapes to investigate SARs and extinctions in a dynamic context. The EAR gives the number of species going extinct immediately after habitat loss, but typically many other species have unviable populations in the remaining habitat and go extinct soon afterwards. We conclude that the EAR underestimates extinctions due to habitat loss, the continental SAR (with slope {\~{}}0.1 or somewhat less) gives a good approximation of short-term extinctions, while the island SAR calculated for discrete fragments of habitat (with slope {\~{}}0.25) predicts the long-term extinctions. However, when the remaining area of land-covering habitat such as forest is roughly less than 20{\%} of the total landscape and the habitat is highly fragmented, all current SARs underestimate extinction rate. We show how the 'fragmentation effect' can be incorporated into a predictive SAR model. When the remaining habitat is highly fragmented, an effective way to combat the fragmentation effect is to aggregate habitat fragments into clusters rather than to place them randomly across the landscape.},
author = {Rybicki, Joel and Hanski, Ilkka},
doi = {10.1111/ele.12065},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2013/Rybicki, Hanski{\_}2013{\_}Species-area relationships and extinctions caused by habitat loss and fragmentation.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1461-0248},
issn = {1461023X},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
keywords = {Endemics-area relationship,Extinction,Extinction debt,Extinction threshold,Habitat fragmentation,Metapopulation capacity,Species-area relationship},
mendeley-tags = {Extinction},
month = {may},
pages = {27--38},
pmid = {23452159},
title = {{Species-area relationships and extinctions caused by habitat loss and fragmentation}},
volume = {16},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Inglada2017,
abstract = {A detailed and accurate knowledge of land cover is crucial for many scientific and operational applications, and as such, it has been identified as an Essential Climate Variable. This accurate knowledge needs frequent updates. This paper presents a methodology for the fully automatic production of land cover maps at country scale using high resolution optical image time series which is based on supervised classification and uses existing databases as reference data for training and validation. The originality of the approach resides in the use of all available image data, a simple pre-processing step leading to a homogeneous set of acquisition dates over the whole area and the use of a supervised classifier which is robust to errors in the reference data. The produced maps have a kappa coefficient of 0.86 with 17 land cover classes. The processing is efficient, allowing a fast delivery of the maps after the acquisition of the image data, does not need expensive field surveys for model calibration and validation, nor human operators for decision making, and uses open and freely available imagery. The land cover maps are provided with a confidence map which gives information at the pixel level about the expected quality of the result.},
author = {Inglada, Jordi and Vincent, Arthur and Arias, Marcela and Tardy, Benjamin and Morin, David and Rodes, Isabel},
doi = {10.3390/rs9010095},
isbn = {2072-4292},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
keywords = {2,8,Landsat,Random Forests,Sentinel,cover,land,satellite image time series},
number = {1},
pages = {95},
title = {{Operational High Resolution Land Cover Map Production at the Country Scale Using Satellite Image Time Series}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/9/1/95},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gardner2007,
author = {Gardner, Toby A. and Barlow, Jos and Parry, Luke W. and Peres, Carlos A.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7429.2006.00228.x},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2007/Gardner et al.{\_}2007{\_}Predicting the Uncertain Future of Tropical Forest Species in a Data Vacuum.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0006-3606},
journal = {Biotropica},
keywords = {biodiversity,important contributions towards de-,predictions,predictive analyses and,research,scenario building can make,secondary forests,sufficient evidence,vising conservation policy strategies,w hen supported by,wright and muller-landau},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {25--30},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Predicting the Uncertain Future of Tropical Forest Species in a Data Vacuum}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2006.00228.x},
volume = {39},
year = {2007}
}
@article{DeFries2010,
author = {DeFries, Ruth and Rovero, Francesco and Wright, Patricia and Ahumada, Jorge and Andelman, Sandy and Brandon, Katrina and Dempewolf, Jan and Hansen, Andrew and Hewson, Jenny and Liu, Jianguo},
doi = {10.1890/080104},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/DeFries et al. - 2010 - From plot to landscape scale linking tropical biodiversity measurements across spatial scales.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1540-9295},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
number = {3},
pages = {153--160},
title = {{From plot to landscape scale: linking tropical biodiversity measurements across spatial scales}},
url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/080104},
volume = {8},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Cord2013,
author = {Cord, Anna F. and Meentemeyer, Ross K. and Leit{\~{a}}o, Pedro J. and V{\'{a}}clav{\'{i}}k, Tom{\'{a}}{\v{s}}},
doi = {10.1111/jbi.12199},
editor = {Whittaker, Robert},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Cord et al. - 2013 - Modelling species distributions with remote sensing data bridging disciplinary perspectives.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1365-2699},
issn = {03050270},
journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2226--2227},
title = {{Modelling species distributions with remote sensing data: bridging disciplinary perspectives}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jbi.12199},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Flinn2005,
author = {Flinn, K.M. and Vellend, Mark},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Flinn, Vellend - 2005 - Recovery of forest plant communities in post agricultural landscapes.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
number = {5},
pages = {243--250},
title = {{Recovery of forest plant communities in post agricultural landscapes}},
volume = {3},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Yannic2013,
abstract = {Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to popula- tions of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and pop- ulation structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2–5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distribu- tions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution.We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapesgenetic diversity and impactsgenetic structure.},
author = {Yannic, Glenn and Pellissier, Lo{\"{i}}c and Ortego, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Lecomte, Nicolas and Couturier, Serge and Cuyler, Christine and Dussault, Christian and Hundertmark, Kris J. and Irvine, R. Justin and Jenkins, Deborah a. and Kolpashikov, Leonid and Mager, Karen and Musiani, Marco and Parker, Katherine L. and R{\o}ed, Knut H. and Sipko, Taras and Þ{\'{o}}risson, Skarph{\'{e}}ðinn G. and Weckworth, Byron V. and Guisan, Antoine and Bernatchez, Louis and C{\^{o}}t{\'{e}}, Steeve D.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2074},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Yannic et al. - 2013 - Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1758-678X; 1758-6798},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {132--137},
title = {{Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2074},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kitzes2015,
abstract = {A significant challenge in both measuring and predicting species extinction rates at global and local scales is the possibility of extinction debt, time-delayed extinctions that occur gradually following an initial impact. Here we examine how relative abundance distributions and spatial aggregation combine to influence the likely magnitude of future extinction debt following habitat loss or climate-driven range contraction. Our analysis is based on several fundamental premises regarding abundance distributions, most importantly that species abundances immediately following habitat loss are a sample from an initial relative abundance distribution and that the long-term, steady-state form of the species abundance distribution is a property of the biology of a community and not of area. Under these two hypotheses, the results show that communities following canonical lognormal and broken-stick abundance distributions are prone to exhibit extinction debt, especially when species exhibit low spatial aggregatio...},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Kitzes, Justin and Harte, John},
doi = {10.1890/14-1594.1},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Kitzes, Harte - 2015 - Predicting extinction debt from community patterns.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0012-9658},
issn = {0012-9658},
journal = {Ecology},
keywords = {Biodiversity,Climate change,Conservation,Extinction debt,Fragmentation,Habitat loss,Macroecology,Species abundance,Species-area relationship},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2127--2136},
pmid = {26405738},
title = {{Predicting extinction debt from community patterns}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/14-1594.1},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hill2002,
abstract = {We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65{\%} and 24{\%} declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.},
author = {Hill, J K and Thomas, C D and Fox, R and Telfer, M G and Willis, S G and Asher, J and Huntley, B},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2002.2134},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2002/Hill et al.{\_}2002{\_}Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming implications for future ranges.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0962-8452},
journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society},
keywords = {Adaptation, Physiological,Animals,Butterflies,Butterflies: physiology,Climate,Great Britain,Population Dynamics,Seasons,Species Specificity},
month = {oct},
number = {1505},
pages = {2163--71},
pmid = {12396492},
title = {{Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges.}},
url = {http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1691143{\&}tool=pmcentrez{\&}rendertype=abstract},
volume = {269},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Schulze2004,
abstract = {Tropical landscapes are dominated by land-use systems, but their contribution to the conservation of biodiversity is largely unknown. Since changes in biodiversity in response to human impact are known to differ widely among taxonomic groups and guilds, there is a need for multidisciplinary collaboration of plant, vertebrate, and invertebrate experts. We used inventories of trees, understory plants, birds (subdivided into endemics, insectivores, frugivores/nectar feeders), butterflies (endemics, fruit feeders), and dung bee- tles in Sulawesi (Indonesia) to characterize a gradient from near-primary to secondary forests, agroforestry systems, and annual crops. As expected, overall species richness tended to decrease within this gradient of increasing habitat modification, but, in contrast to pre- vious studies, we found the species richness between most taxonomic groups to be signif- icantly correlated (36 out of 38 pairwise comparisons). However, on average only 48{\%} of the variance could be explained (within the five main groups), and only a few taxonomic groups/guilds turned out to be good predictors for others: for example, trees for fruit- and nectar-feeding birds (88{\%} explanation) and fruit-feeding butterflies (83{\%}), endemic birds for endemic butterflies (72{\%}), and frugivorous/nectar-feeding birds for fruit-feeding but- terflies (67{\%}). Although biodiversity of land-use systems showed taxonomic group- and guild-specific differences, most groups were affected in a similar way by habitat modifi- cation. Near-primary forest sites proved to be of principal importance for conservation; however, land-use systems such as secondary forests (for understory plants, birds, and butterflies) and agroforestry systems (for butterflies) supported relatively high numbers of species and might play a significant role for biodiversity conservation in tropical landscapes. Key words: biodiversity assessment; biodiversity indicators; birds; butterflies; dung beetles; Indonesia, Central Sulawesi; land-use systems, tropical; rainforest; species richness, predicting; spe- cies richness, correlation among taxonomic groups; trees; understory plants.},
author = {Schulze, Christian H. and Waltert, Matthias and Kessler, Paul J. A. and Pitopang, Ramadhanil and Shahabuddin and Veddeler, Dorthe and M{\"{u}}hlenberg, Michael and Gradstein, S. Robbert and Leuschner, Christoph and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Tscharntke, Teja},
doi = {10.1890/02-5409},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2004/Schulze et al.{\_}2004{\_}Biodiversity indicator groups of tropical land-use systems Comparing plants, birds, and insects.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {10510761},
issn = {10510761},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
keywords = {Biodiversity assessment,Biodiversity indicators,Birds,Butterflies,Central Sulawesi,Dung beetles,Forest,Indicator,Indonesia,Land-use systems,Rainforest,Species richness,Trees,Understory plants,correlation among taxonomic grou,correlation among taxonomic groups,predicting,tropical},
mendeley-tags = {Forest,Indicator},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1321--1333},
pmid = {170},
title = {{Biodiversity indicator groups of tropical land-use systems: Comparing plants, birds, and insects}},
volume = {14},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Rocchini2015,
author = {Rocchini, Duccio and Hern{\'{a}}ndez-Stefanoni, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and He, Kate S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoinf.2014.10.006},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Rocchini, Hern{\'{a}}ndez-Stefanoni, He - 2015 - Advancing species diversity estimate by remotely sensed proxies A conceptual review.pdf:pdf},
issn = {15749541},
journal = {Ecological Informatics},
keywords = {biodiversity,distance decay models,remote sensing,spatial ecology},
month = {jan},
pages = {22--28},
title = {{Advancing species diversity estimate by remotely sensed proxies: A conceptual review}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1574954114001435},
volume = {25},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Csillery2010,
abstract = {Understanding the forces that influence natural variation within and among populations has been a major objective of evolutionary biologists for decades. Motivated by the growth in computational power and data complexity, modern approaches to this question make intensive use of simulation methods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is one of these methods. Here we review the foundations of ABC, its recent algorithmic developments, and its applications in evolutionary biology and ecology. We argue that the use of ABC should incorporate all aspects of Bayesian data analysis: formulation, fitting, and improvement of a model. ABC can be a powerful tool to make inferences with complex models if these principles are carefully applied. {\textcopyright} 2010 Elsevier Ltd.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {9780691127248},
author = {Csill{\'{e}}ry, Katalin and Blum, Michael G.B. and Gaggiotti, Oscar E. and Fran{\c{c}}ois, Olivier},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2010.04.001},
eprint = {9780691127248},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/1-s2.0-S0169534710000662-main.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0169-5347 (Print)$\backslash$n0169-5347 (Linking)},
issn = {01695347},
journal = {Trends in Ecology {\&} Evolution},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {410--418},
pmid = {20488578},
title = {{Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in practice}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534710000662},
volume = {25},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Pyke1984,
author = {Pyke, GH H},
doi = {10.1146/annurev.es.15.110184.002515},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Pyke - 1984 - Optimal foraging theory a critical review.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0066-4162},
journal = {Annual review of ecology and systematics},
keywords = {Article synth{\`{e}}se,Articulo sintesis,Comportement approvisionnement,Foraging behavior,Optimisation,Optimization,Review,Theory,Th{\'{e}}orie},
pages = {523--575},
title = {{Optimal foraging theory: a critical review}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/2096959 http://cat.inist.fr.gate1.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN{\&}cpsidt=9031911},
volume = {15},
year = {1984}
}
@article{Latimer2016,
abstract = {-With over half of earth's terrestrial biota living beneath forest canopies, our ability to accurately capture organism-climate relationships in forested ecosystems is imperative for predicting species' vulnerability to future climate change. Assessing the vulnerability of forest dependent species, however, hinges on quantifying microclimates that exist below the forest canopy and might be influenced by varying levels of disturbance in human-modified landscapes. The goal of our study was to examine the multi-scaled predictors of subcanopy microclimate variability across a heterogeneous landscape in Midwestern USA during winter, and to further evaluate whether a widely available interpolated climate model accurately captures this variability. By deploying a network of temperature sensors along a fragmentation gradient, we found that forests in more fragmented landscapes with greater amounts of forest edge and increasing distances between forest patches, experienced colder minimum and average daily temperatures throughout the winter than forests in less fragmented landscapes. We found that greater tree densities and higher elevations led to warmer microclimates while increasing distances from urban centers led to colder microclimates. The negative effect of forest edge on minimum temperatures was lessened by the effect of increasing basal area, highlighting the importance of local-and landscape-scale features on microclimate heterogeneity. Temperature discrepancies between subcanopy microclimates and climate interpolations were influenced by many of the same features, and could be of a similar magnitude as those predicted by future climate change scenarios. Using a biological threshold based on metabolic and demographic constraints for winter birds, we found that the variability in microclimates along our forest fragmentation gradient (50 km) was comparable to the magnitude captured by weather stations across a latitudinal gradient spanning more than 650 km. Our results suggest that biophysical properties of landscapes can alter spatial gradients of microclimates and should be considered when assessing species' vulnerabilities to future climate change.},
author = {Latimer, Christopher E and Zuckerberg, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1111/ecog.02551},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Latimer, Zuckerberg - 2016 - Forest fragmentation alters winter microclimates and microrefugia in human-modified landscapes.pdf:pdf},
issn = {09067590},
journal = {Ecography},
month = {sep},
number = {July},
pages = {1--13},
title = {{Forest fragmentation alters winter microclimates and microrefugia in human-modified landscapes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecog.02551},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lomolino2008,
abstract = {Studies of elevation clines in diversity and composition of ecological communities date back to the origins of biogeography. A modern resurgence of interests in these elevational clines is likely to contribute important insights for developing a more general theory of species diversity. In order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of geographical clines in diversity, the research programme for montane biogeography should include statistically rigorous tests of apparent patterns, comparisons of patterns among regions and taxonomic or ecological groups of species, and analyses of clines in environmental variables concurrent with biogeographical surveys. The conceptual framework for this research programme should be based on the assumption that elevational gradients in species diversity result from a combination of ecological and evolutionary processes, rather than the presumed independent effects of one overriding force. Given that montane ecosystems are hot spots of biological diversity, an expanded and integrated programme for biogeographic surveys in montane regions should provide valuable insights for conservation biologists.},
author = {Lomolino, M. V.},
doi = {10.1046/j.1466-822x.2001.00229.x},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Lomolino - 2001 - Elevation gradients of species-density historical and prospective views.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0960-7447},
issn = {1466822X},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
keywords = {Climate-Change,Diversity,Diversity theory,Elevational gradients,Montane biogeography,Mountains,Paper,Species richness,Species-density,Study,an historical perspective,density,diversity theory,elevational gradients,montane biogeography,mountains,species richness,species-},
mendeley-tags = {Climate-Change,Diversity,Paper,Study},
number = {1},
pages = {3--13},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Elevation gradients of species-density: historical and prospective views}},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2001.00229.x/full},
volume = {10},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Potapov2008,
abstract = {Protection of large natural forest landscapes is a highly important task to help fulfill different international strategic initiatives to protect forest biodiversity, to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and to stimulate sustainable forest management practices. This paper introduces a new approach for mapping large intact forest landscapes (IFL), defined as an unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems within areas of current forest extent, without signs of significant human activity, and having an area of at least 500 km2. We have created a global IFL map using existing fine-scale maps and a global coverage of high spatial resolution satellite imagery. We estimate the global area of IFL within the current extent of forest ecosystems (forest zone) to be 13.1 million km2 or 23.5{\%} of the forest zone. The vast majority of IFL are found in two biomes: Dense Tropical and Subtropical Forests (45.3{\%}) and Boreal Forests (43.8{\%}). The lowest proportion of IFL is found in Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests. The IFL exist in 66 of the 149 countries that together make up the forest zone. Three of them-Canada, Russia, and Brazil-contain 63.8{\%} of the total IFL area. Of the world's IFL area, 18.9{\%} has some form of protection, but only 9.7{\%} is strictly protected, i.e., belongs to IUCN protected areas categories I-III. The world IFL map presented here is intended to underpin the development of a general strategy for nature conservation at the global and regional scales. It also defines a baseline for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation that is well suited for use with operational and cost-effective satellite data. All project results and IFL maps are available on a dedicated web site (http://www.intactforests.org)},
author = {Potapov, Peter and Yaroshenko, Aleksey and Turubanova, Svetlana and Dubinin, Maxim and Laestadius, Lars and Thies, Christoph and Aksenov, Dmitry and Egorov, Aleksey and Yesipova, Yelena and Glushkov, Igor and Karpachevskiy, Mikhail and Kostikova, Anna and Manisha, Alexander and Tsybikova, Ekaterina and Zhuravleva, Ilona},
doi = {Artn 51},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Potapov et al. - 2008 - Mapping the world's intact forest landscapes by remote sensing.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {9783902451057},
issn = {17083087},
journal = {Ecology and Society},
keywords = {Forest degradation,Global forest assessment,Intactness,Landsat,Remote sensing,Wilderness},
number = {2},
title = {{Mapping the world's intact forest landscapes by remote sensing}},
volume = {13},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Nieto2015,
abstract = {Understanding the distribution of the species and its controls over biogeographic scales is still a major challenge in ecology. National Park Networks provide an opportunity to assess the relationship between ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in areas with low human impacts. We tested the productivity-biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the available energy, and the variability-biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the diversity of habitats. The available energy and habitat heterogeneity estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was shown as a good predictor of bird-species richness for a diverse set of biomes in previously published studies. However, there is not a universal relationship between NDVI and bird-species richness. Here we tested if the NDVI can predict bird species richness in areas with low human impact in Argentina. Using a dataset from the National Park Network of Argentina we found that the best predictor of bird species richness was the minimum value of NDVI per year which explained 75{\%} of total variability. The inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI improved the explanation power to 80{\%}. Minimum NDVI was highly correlated with precipitation and winter temperature. Our analysis provides a tool for assessing bird-species richness at scales on which land-use planning practitioners make their decisions for Southern South America.},
author = {Nieto, Sebasti{\'{a}}n and Flombaum, Pedro and Garbulsky, Mart{\'{i}}n F.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gecco.2015.03.005},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Nieto, Flombaum, Garbulsky - 2015 - Can temporal and spatial NDVI predict regional bird-species richness.pdf:pdf},
issn = {23519894},
journal = {Global Ecology and Conservation},
keywords = {Baseline conditions,National park network,Primary productivity,Temporal and spatial variability},
month = {jan},
pages = {729--735},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Can temporal and spatial NDVI predict regional bird-species richness?}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2015.03.005 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2351989415000311},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tuanmu2015,
author = {Tuanmu, Mao-Ning and Jetz, Walter},
doi = {10.1111/geb.12365},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Tuanmu, Jetz - 2015 - A global, remote sensing-based characterization of terrestrial habitat heterogeneity for biodiversity and ecosyste.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1466822X},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
keywords = {correspondence,diversity relationship,environmental heterogeneity,heterogeneity,image,mao-ning tuanmu,modis,species richness,texture,vegetation index},
month = {sep},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
title = {{A global, remote sensing-based characterization of terrestrial habitat heterogeneity for biodiversity and ecosystem modelling}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/geb.12365},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jackson2014,
abstract = {Regional landscape context influences the fate of local populations, yet the spatial extent of this influence (called the "scale of effect") is difficult to predict. Thus, a major problem for conservation management is to understand the factors governing the scale of effect such that landscape structure surrounding a focal area is measured and managed at the biologically relevant spatial scale. One unresolved question is whether and how scale of effect may depend on the population response measured (e.g., abundance vs. presence/absence). If scales of effect differ across population outcomes of a given species, management based on one outcome may compromise another, further complicating conservation decision making. Here we used an individual-based simulation model to investigate how scales of effect of landscapes that vary in the amount and fragmentation of habitat differ among three population responses (local abundance, presence/absence, and genetic diversity). We also explored how the population response measured affects the relative importance of habitat amount and fragmentation in shaping local populations, and how dispersal distance mediates the magnitude and spatial scale of these effects. We found that the spatial scale most strongly influencing local populations depended on the outcome measured and was predicted to be small for abundance, medium-sized for presence/absence, and large for genetic diversity. Increasing spatial scales likely resulted from increasing temporal scales over which outcomes were regulated (with local genetic diversity being regulated over the largest number of generations). Thus, multiple generations of dispersal and gene flow linked local population patterns to regional population size. The effects of habitat amount dominated the effects of fragmentation for all three outcomes. Increased dispersal distance strongly reduced abundance, but not presence/absence or genetic diversity. Our results suggest that managing protected species at spatial scales based on population abundance data may ignore broader landscape effects on population genetic diversity and persistence, lending support to the importance of managing large buffers surrounding areas of conservation concern.},
author = {Jackson, Nathan D. and Fahrig, Lenore},
doi = {10.1890/13-0388.1},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Jackson, Fahrig - 2014 - Landscape context affects genetic diversity at a much larger spatial extent than population abundance.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0012-9658},
issn = {0012-9658},
journal = {Ecology},
keywords = {agent-based modeling,allelic richness,clumpy,focal patch,landscape buffers,landscape ecology,landscape genetics,midpoint displacement},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {871--881},
pmid = {24933807},
title = {{Landscape context affects genetic diversity at a much larger spatial extent than population abundance}},
url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-0388.1 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/13-0388.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Siemann1998,
abstract = {Because a diversity of resources should support a diversity of consumers, most models predict that increasing plant diversity increases animal diversity. We report results of a direct experimental test of the dependence of animal diversity on plant diversity. We sampled arthropods in a well-replicated grassland experiment in which plant species richness and plant functional richness were directly manipulated. In simple regressions, both the number of species planted (log2 transformed) and the number of functional groups planted significantly increased arthropod species richness but not arthropod abundance. However, the number of species planted was the only significant predictor of arthropod species richness when both predictor variables were included in ANOVAs or a MANOVA. Although highly significant, arthropod species richness regressions had low R2 values, high intercepts (24 arthropod species in monocultures), and shallow slopes. Analyses of relations among plants and arthropod trophic groups indicated that herbivore diversity was influenced by plant, parasite, and predator diversity. Furthermore, herbivore diversity was more strongly correlated with parasite and predator diversity than with plant diversity. Together with regression results, this suggests that, although increasing plant diversity significantly increased arthropod diversity, local herbivore diversity is also maintained by, and in turn maintains, a diversity of parasites and predators.},
author = {Siemann, E and Tilman, D and Haarstad, J and Ritchie, M},
doi = {10.1086/286204},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Siemann et al. - 1998 - Experimental tests of the dependence of arthropod diversity on plant diversity.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {00030147},
issn = {0003-0147},
journal = {The American Naturalist},
keywords = {arthropod diversity,be im-,diversity,e,g,grasslands,herbivores,hutchinson,it has been suggested,parasites,plant diversity,portant in determining animal,preda-,that plant diversity should,tors},
number = {5},
pages = {738--750},
pmid = {18811348},
title = {{Experimental tests of the dependence of arthropod diversity on plant diversity.}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/286204},
volume = {152},
year = {1998}
}
@misc{,
booktitle = {Open Source Geospatial Foundation},
keywords = {QGIS},
mendeley-tags = {QGIS},
publisher = {QGIS Development Team},
title = {{QGIS Geographic Information System}},
url = {http://qgis.osgeo.org},
urldate = {2015-01-01},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Potts2003a,
author = {Potts, SG and Vulliamy, Betsy and Dafni, Amots and Ne'eman, G},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2003/Potts et al.{\_}2003{\_}Response of plant-pollinator communities to fire changes in diversity, abundance and floral reward structure.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Oikos},
number = {1990},
pages = {103--112},
title = {{Response of plant-pollinator communities to fire: changes in diversity, abundance and floral reward structure}},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12186.x/full},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Setiawan2014,
author = {Setiawan, Yudi and Yoshino, Kunihiko and Prasetyo, Lilik Budi},
doi = {10.1016/j.jag.2013.06.008},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Setiawan, Yoshino, Prasetyo - 2014 - Characterizing the dynamics change of vegetation cover on tropical forestlands using 250m multi-tem.pdf:pdf},
issn = {03032434},
journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation},
month = {feb},
pages = {132--144},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Characterizing the dynamics change of vegetation cover on tropical forestlands using 250m multi-temporal MODIS EVI}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0303243413000809},
volume = {26},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Filippi-Codaccioni2010,
abstract = {In order to face the large and worrying biodiversity decline in agricultural landscapes, important policy instruments like agri-environmental schemes (AES) have been implemented. Studies that have examined the ecological effects of AES are now numerous and generally use indicators of biodiversity such as species richness and diversity as well as species abundance. Yet, it has been shown that simple metrics such as species richness or abundance may give misleading messages about biodiversity status and fate. Moreover, those indicators cannot detect another important source of biodiversity loss, biotic homogenisation. In this context, taking into account to a wider extent ecological difference among species would be more relevant, as well as focusing on the species specialisation which is known to be linked to higher species vulnerability. A bibliographic review investigating the criteria generally used to assess the success of AES showed that 55{\%} of studies used species richness and/or abundance exclusively without any consideration of specialisation or other ecological traits in their evaluation of AES effectiveness. Based on data from the French breeding bird survey and studies at regional scale in France on farmland birds, we show that: (i) species richness and specialisation are generally negatively correlated in agricultural areas, (ii) habitat heterogeneity does not benefit specialist species, and (iii) monitoring of species diversity should be coupled with the monitoring of specialist species to improve conservation strategies in farming systems. Overall, this study emphasizes the need to account for both community richness and composition when assessing AES or similar conservation planning.},
author = {Filippi-Codaccioni, Ondine and Devictor, Vincent and Bas, Yves and Julliard, Romain},
doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2010.03.031},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2010/Filippi-Codaccioni et al.{\_}2010{\_}Toward more concern for specialisation and less for species diversity in conserving farmland biodiversity.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00063207},
journal = {Biological Conservation},
keywords = {Agri-environmental schemes,Habitat heterogeneity,Homogenization,Indicators,Specialist species,Species richness,Study},
mendeley-tags = {Homogenization,Study},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1493--1500},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Toward more concern for specialisation and less for species diversity in conserving farmland biodiversity}},
volume = {143},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Wang2015,
author = {Wang, Jie and Li, Congcong and Gong, Peng},
doi = {10.1080/01431161.2015.1047049},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Wang, Li, Gong - 2015 - Adaptively weighted decision fusion in 30 m land-cover mapping with Landsat and MODIS data.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0143-1161},
journal = {International Journal of Remote Sensing},
number = {14},
pages = {3659--3674},
title = {{Adaptively weighted decision fusion in 30 m land-cover mapping with Landsat and MODIS data}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2015.1047049},
volume = {36},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Saavedra2015,
author = {Saavedra, Francisco and Hensen, Isabell and Schleuning, Matthias},
doi = {10.1111/avsc.12184},
editor = {Wesche, Karsten},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Saavedra, Hensen, Schleuning - 2015 - Deforested habitats lack seeds of late-successional and large-seeded plant species in tropical mon.pdf:pdf},
issn = {14022001},
journal = {Applied Vegetation Science},
keywords = {bolivia,distance to source habitat,forest,frugivorous birds,montane forest,perch structures,recovery,seed dispersal limitation},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {603--612},
title = {{Deforested habitats lack seeds of late-successional and large-seeded plant species in tropical montane forests}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/avsc.12184},
volume = {18},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Goetz2014,
abstract = {Recent advances in remote sensing and ecological modeling warrant a timely and robust investigation$\backslash$n of the ecological variables that underlie large-scale patterns of breeding bird species richness,$\backslash$n particularly in the context of intensifying land use and climate change. Our objective was to$\backslash$n address this need using an array of bioclimatic and remotely sensed data sets representing$\backslash$n vegetation properties and structure, and other aspects of the physical environment. We first build$\backslash$n models of bird species richness across breeding bird survey (BBS) routes, and then spatially predict$\backslash$n richness across the coterminous US at moderately high spatial resolution (1 km). Predictor variables$\backslash$n were derived from various sources and maps of species richness were generated for four groups$\backslash$n (guilds) of birds with different breeding habitat affiliation (forest, grassland, open woodland,$\backslash$n scrub/shrub), as well as all guilds combined. Predictions of forest bird distributions were strong ($\backslash$n R 2 = 0.85), followed by grassland (0.76), scrub/shrub (0.63) and open woodland (0.60) species.$\backslash$n Vegetation properties were generally the strongest determinants of species richness, whereas$\backslash$n bioclimatic and lidar-derived vertical structure metrics were of variable importance and dependent$\backslash$n upon the guild type. Environmental variables (climate and the physical environment) were also$\backslash$n frequently selected predictors, but canopy structure variables were not as important as expected$\backslash$n based on more local to regional scale studies. Relatively sparse sampling of canopy structure$\backslash$n metrics from the satellite lidar sensor may have reduced their importance relative to other$\backslash$n predictor variables across the study domain. We discuss these results in the context of the$\backslash$n ecological drivers of species richness patterns, the spatial scale of bird diversity analyses, and$\backslash$n the potential of next generation space-borne lidar systems relevant to vegetation and ecosystem$\backslash$n studies. This study strengthens current understanding of bird species–climate–vegetation$\backslash$n relationships, which could be further advanced with improved canopy structure information across$\backslash$n spatial scales.},
author = {Goetz, Scott J and Sun, Mindy and Zolkos, Scott and Hansen, Andy and Dubayah, Ralph},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034013},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Goetz et al. - 2014 - The relative importance of climate and vegetation properties on patterns of North American breeding bird species r.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034013},
title = {{The relative importance of climate and vegetation properties on patterns of North American breeding bird species richness}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=3/a=034013 http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=3/a=034013?key=crossref.77b5b3cac49b48c03ff05dfdde265cf4},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Harris2018,
abstract = {Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50{\%} of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods.},
author = {Harris, David J. and Taylor, Shawn D. and White, Ethan P.},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.4278},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Harris, Taylor, White - 2018 - Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices.pdf:pdf},
issn = {2167-8359},
journal = {PeerJ},
month = {feb},
pages = {e4278},
pmid = {29441230},
title = {{Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices}},
url = {https://peerj.com/articles/4278},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Terborgh2015,
author = {Terborgh, John W.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1501070112},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Terborgh - 2015 - Toward a trophic theory of species diversity.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {37},
pages = {11415--11422},
title = {{Toward a trophic theory of species diversity}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1501070112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zhu2012,
abstract = {A new method called Fmask (Function of mask) for cloud and cloud shadow detection in Landsat imagery is provided. Landsat Top of Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance and Brightness Temperature (BT) are used as inputs. Fmask first uses rules based on cloud physical properties to separate Potential Cloud Pixels (PCPs) and clear-sky pixels. Next, a normalized temperature probability, spectral variability probability, and brightness probability are combined to produce a probability mask for clouds over land and water separately. Then, the PCPs and the cloud probability mask are used together to derive the potential cloud layer. The darkening effect of the cloud shadows in the Near Infrared (NIR) Band is used to generate a potential shadow layer by applying the flood-fill transformation. Subsequently, 3D cloud objects are determined via segmentation of the potential cloud layer and assumption of a constant temperature lapse rate within each cloud object. The view angle of the satellite sensor and the illuminating angle are used to predict possible cloud shadow locations and select the one that has the maximum similarity with the potential cloud shadow mask. If the scene has snow, a snow mask is also produced. For a globally distributed set of reference data, the average Fmask overall cloud accuracy is as high as 96.4{\%}. The goal is development of a cloud and cloud shadow detection algorithm suitable for routine usage with Landsat images. ?? 2011 Elsevier Inc.},
author = {Zhu, Zhe and Woodcock, Curtis E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2011.10.028},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Zhu, Woodcock - 2012 - Object-based cloud and cloud shadow detection in Landsat imagery.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0034-4257},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Cloud,Cloud shadow,Detection,Fmask,Landsat,Object-based},
month = {mar},
pages = {83--94},
publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
title = {{Object-based cloud and cloud shadow detection in Landsat imagery}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.10.028 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0034425711003853},
volume = {118},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Platts2011,
abstract = {SUMMARYEcological regions aggregate habitats with similar biophysical characteristics within well-defined boundaries, providing spatially consistent platforms for monitoring, managing and forecasting the health of interrelated ecosystems. A major obstacle to the implementation of this approach is imprecise and inconsistent boundary placement. For globally important mountain regions such as the Eastern Arc (Tanzania and Kenya), where qualitative definitions of biophysical affinity are well established, rule-based methods for landform classification provide a straightforward solution to ambiguities in region extent. The method presented in this paper encompasses the majority of both contemporary and estimated preclearance forest cover within strict topographical limits. Many of the species here tentatively considered ‘near-endemic' could be reclassified as strictly endemic according to the derived boundaries. LandScan and census data show population density inside the ecoregion to be higher than in rural lowlands, and lowland settlement to be most probable within 30 km. This definition should help to align landscape scale conservation strategies in the Eastern Arc and promote new research in areas of predicted, but as yet undocumented, biological importance. Similar methods could work well in other regions where mountain extent is poorly resolved. Spatial data accompany the online version of this article.},
author = {Platts, Philip J. and Burgess, Neil D. and Gereau, Roy E. and Lovett, Jon C. and Marshall, Andrew R. and McClean, Colin J. and Pellikka, P. K E and Swetnam, R D and Marchant, Rob},
doi = {10.1017/S0376892911000191},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2011/Platts et al.{\_}2011{\_}Delimiting tropical mountain ecoregions for conservation.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0376-8929},
issn = {0376-8929},
journal = {Environmental Conservation},
keywords = {arc mountains,boundary placement,conservation priority,eastern,ecological regions,ecosystem services,mapping,plant endemism,population pressure,topography},
month = {sep},
number = {03},
pages = {312--324},
title = {{Delimiting tropical mountain ecoregions for conservation}},
url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract{\_}S0376892911000191},
volume = {38},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Tong2017,
abstract = {The impact of human activities via land use/cover changes on NDVI trends is critical for an improved understanding of satellite-observed changes in vegetation productivity in drylands. The dominance of positive NDVI trends in the Sahel, the so-called re-greening, is sometimes interpreted as a combined effect of an increase in rainfall and cropland expansion or agricultural intensification. Yet, the impact of changes in land use has yet to be thoroughly tested and supported by empirical evidence. At present, no studies have considered the importance of the different seasonal NDVI signals of cropped and fallowed fields when interpreting NDVI trends, as both field types are commonly merged into a single ‘cropland' class. We make use of the distinctly different phenology of cropped and fallowed fields and use seasonal NDVI curves to separate these two field types. A fuzzy classifier is applied to quantify cropped and fallowed areas in a case study region in the southern Sahel (Fakara, Niger) on a yearly basis between 2000 and 2014. We find that fallowed fields have a consistently higher NDVI than unmanured cropped fields and by using two seasonal NDVI metrics (the amplitude and the decreasing rate) derived from the MODIS time series, a clear separation between classes of fields is achieved (r = 0.77). The fuzzy classifier can compute the percentage of a pixel (250 m) under active cultivation, thereby alleviating the problem of small field sizes in the region. We find a predominant decrease in NDVI over the period of analysis associated with an increased area of cropped fields at the expense of fallowed fields. Our findings couple cropping abandonment (more frequent fallow years) with positive NDVI trends and an increase in the percentage of the cropped area (fallow period shortening) with negative trends. These findings profoundly impact our understanding of greening and browning trends in agrarian Sahelian drylands and in other drylands of developing countries characterized by limited use of fertilizers.},
author = {Tong, Xiaoye and Brandt, Martin and Hiernaux, Pierre and Herrmann, Stefanie M. and Tian, Feng and Prishchepov, Alexander V. and Fensholt, Rasmus},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.030},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Tong et al. - 2017 - Revisiting the coupling between NDVI trends and cropland changes in the Sahel drylands A case study in western Nige.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Cropland,Drylands,Fallowed fields,NDVI trends,Niger,Phenology,Sahel},
month = {mar},
pages = {286--296},
publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
title = {{Revisiting the coupling between NDVI trends and cropland changes in the Sahel drylands: A case study in western Niger}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.030 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S003442571730041X},
volume = {191},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Heckmann2014,
abstract = {A sediment and pollen record from the North Pare Mountains in north-eastern Tanzania provides evidence for strong anthropogenic landscape transformations since the 7th century AD and demonstrates that, shortly after the arrival of Early Iron Age farmers, agricultural land use became the main driving force of vegetation and landscape change, predominating over external climatic factors. The absence of pollen characteristic for the corresponding altitudinal submontane forest implies widespread forest clearance and agriculture land use prior to the onset of the sedimentary record. Land clearance, soil erosion, and corresponding accumulation of colluvial slope deposits on the valley floor triggered paludification and the establishment of the Lomwe palaeowetland in the 7th century AD. Accelerated soil erosion and rapid alluvial burial of the palaeowetland between AD1200 and AD1500 represent an environmental tipping point with important repercussions for present day land degradation and resource restraints. Age control is complicated by radiocarbon date reversals and draws on introduced forest taxa Cupressus and Eucalyptus as biostratigraphic markers of the 20th century. Geoarchives from agricultural landscapes that are shaped by long-term settlement and land use, such as the Pare Mountains, can enhance archaeological occupation histories and provide crucial information for both the identification of ecological thresholds and for the reconstruction of environmental transitions during anthropogenic landscape transformations. ?? 2014 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Heckmann, Matthias and Muiruri, Veronica and Boom, Arnoud and Marchant, Rob},
doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.04.005},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Heckmann et al. - 2014 - Human–environment interactions in an agricultural landscape A 1400-yr sediment and pollen record from North Par.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0031-0182},
issn = {00310182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
keywords = {Biostratigraphic marker,Ecological threshold,Human impact,Paludification,Radiocarbon date reversal,Soil erosion},
month = {jul},
pages = {49--61},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Human–environment interactions in an agricultural landscape: A 1400-yr sediment and pollen record from North Pare, NE Tanzania}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.04.005 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0031018214001886},
volume = {406},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kremen2015a,
author = {Kremen, Claire},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.12845},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Kremen - 2015 - Reframing the land-sparingland-sharing debate for biodiversity conservation.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00778923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {agricultural intensification,agroecology,food sovereignty,population persistence,trade-off},
month = {jul},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
title = {{Reframing the land-sparing/land-sharing debate for biodiversity conservation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/nyas.12845},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Balmford2001,
abstract = {There is increasing evidence that areas of outstanding conservation importance may coincide with dense human settlement or impact. We tested the generality of these findings using 1 degree-resolution data for sub-Saharan Africa. We find that human population density is positively correlated with species richness of birds, mammals, snakes, and amphibians. This association holds for widespread, narrowly endemic, and threatened species and looks set to persist in the face of foreseeable population growth. Our results contradict earlier expectations of low conflict based on the idea that species richness decreases and human impact increases with primary productivity. We find that across Africa, both variables instead exhibit unimodal relationships with productivity. Modifying priority-setting to take account of human density shows that, at this scale, conflicts between conservation and development are not easily avoided, because many densely inhabited grid cells contain species found nowhere else.},
author = {Balmford, A and Moore, J L and Brooks, T and Burgess, N and Hansen, L A and Williams, P and Rahbek, C},
doi = {10.1126/science.291.5513.2616},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Balmford et al. - 2001 - Conservation conflicts across Africa.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
keywords = {Africa,Africa South of the Sahara,Amphibians,Animals,Biodiversity,Birds,Conservation of Natural Resources,Ecosystem,Humans,Mammals,Population Density,Population Growth,Snakes},
mendeley-tags = {Africa,Biodiversity},
month = {mar},
number = {5513},
pages = {2616--9},
pmid = {11283376},
title = {{Conservation conflicts across Africa.}},
volume = {291},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Phillips2006,
author = {Phillips, Steven J. and Anderson, Robert P. and Schapire, Robert E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/2006/Phillips, Anderson, Schapire{\_}2006{\_}Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.pdf:pdf},
issn = {03043800},
journal = {Ecological Modelling},
keywords = {Method-Paper,SDM,distribution,maximum entropy,modeling,niche,range},
mendeley-tags = {Method-Paper,SDM},
month = {jan},
number = {3-4},
pages = {231--259},
title = {{Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438000500267X},
volume = {190},
year = {2006}
}
@article{DePalma2017,
abstract = {Aim: Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity},
author = {{De Palma}, Adriana and Kuhlmann, Michael and Bugter, Rob and Ferrier, Simon and Hoskins, Andrew J. and Potts, Simon G. and Roberts, Stuart P.M. and Schweiger, Oliver and Purvis, Andy},
doi = {10.1111/ddi.12638},
editor = {Beggs, Jacqueline},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/LocalStorage/References/ddi.12638.pdf:pdf},
issn = {13669516},
journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
keywords = {PREDICTS,agricultural intensification,land-use conversion,non-random species loss,pollinator diversity},
mendeley-tags = {PREDICTS},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1435--1446},
pmid = {29200933},
title = {{Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ddi.12638},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhu2014,
abstract = {A new algorithm for Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) of land cover using all available Landsat data is developed. It is capable of detecting many kinds of land cover change continuously as new images are collected and providing land cover maps for any given time. A two-step cloud, cloud shadow, and snow masking algorithm is used for eliminating "noisy" observations. A time series model that has components of seasonality, trend, and break estimates surface reflectance and brightness temperature. The time series model is updated dynamically with newly acquired observations. Due to the differences in spectral response for various kinds of land cover change, the CCDC algorithm uses a threshold derived from all seven Landsat bands. When the difference between observed and predicted images exceeds a threshold three consecutive times, a pixel is identified as land surface change. Land cover classification is done after change detection. Coefficients from the time series models and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from model estimation are used as input to the Random Forest Classifier (RFC). We applied the CCDC algorithm to one Landsat scene in New England (WRS Path 12 and Row 31). All available (a total of 519) Landsat images acquired between 1982 and 2011 were used. A random stratified sample design was used for assessing the change detection accuracy, with 250. pixels selected within areas of persistent land cover and 250. pixels selected within areas of change identified by the CCDC algorithm. The accuracy assessment shows that CCDC results were accurate for detecting land surface change, with producer's accuracy of 98{\%} and user's accuracies of 86{\%} in the spatial domain and temporal accuracy of 80{\%}. Land cover reference data were used as the basis for assessing the accuracy of the land cover classification. The land cover map with 16 categories resulting from the CCDC algorithm had an overall accuracy of 90{\%}. ?? 2014 Elsevier Inc.},
author = {Zhu, Zhe and Woodcock, Curtis E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2014.01.011},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/mj291/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Zhu, Woodcock - 2014 - Continuous change detection and classification of land cover using all available Landsat data.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0034-4257},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {CCDC,Change detection,Classification,Continuous,Land cover,Landsat,Random Forest,Time series},
pages = {152--171},
publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
title = {{Continuous change detection and classification of land cover using all available Landsat data}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.01.011},
volume = {144},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sulla-Menashe2019,
abstract = {Publication date: 1 March 2019 Source: Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 222 Author(s): Damien Sulla-Menashe, Josh M. Gray, S. Parker Abercrombie, Mark A. Friedl Abstract Land cover and land use maps provide an important basis for characterizing the ecological state and biophysical properties of Earth's land areas. The Collection 5 MODIS Global Land Cover Type product, initially released in 2010, was produced at annual time steps and has been widely used in the land science community. In this paper we describe refinements and improvements, in both the algorithm and the resulting map data sets, that have been implemented in the MODIS Collection 6 Global Land Cover Type product. Unlike the Collection 5 product, which was based on the 17-class International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) legend, the Collection 6 algorithm uses a hierarchical classification model where the classes included in each level of the hierarchy reflect structured distinctions between land cover properties. The resulting suite of nested classifications is combined to create eight distinct classification schemes including the five legacy schemes included in Collection 5, and three new legends based on the FAO-Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) that distinguish between land cover, land use, and surface hydrologic state. The Collection 6 algorithm also incorporates a state-space mult