| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016189)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016189" |
| ocrPages: 1 |
| ocrChars: 3490 |
| ocrElapsed: 0.0 |
| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
| externalSource: "greg-ep-nov-12" |
| externalLicense: "not granted" |
| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| of sub-developers which would inflate the acq. cost of land and consequently |
| depreciate the residual value of land due to lower margins (4) Mismanagement of |
| cash flows: a mismanagement of the resources (overspending in CAPEX for land |
| for example) could arise liquidity concerns because of over-exposure to land |
| sales mkt. Upside risks: A lower-than-expected borrowing cost: We |
| forecast an incremental cost of debt of 9%, A improvement in the credit |
| environment sensitive to exogenous factors such as liquidity and the risk appetite |
| of the international mkt. would lower DAAR s cost of funding, We see upside |
| valuation risk in the value of the land bank should the company manages to |
| develop housing units with the support of the Ministry of Housing. debt-financed |
| acquisition to boost its recurring income. |
| Extra (XYDUF) |
| We derive a PO of SAR 24 using a DCF valuation model which we believe best captures |
| differing capital costs and growth profiles across the MENA region. Key assumptions are |
| an 11% WACC and a 2% perpetuity growth rate. Upside/downside risks to our PO are |
| better/worse returns from better/worse like-for-like sales and shorter/longer break even |
| times from new international markets. |
| We derive a PO of SAR134 using a DCF valuation model which we believe best captures |
| the company's plan to add c.60% new stores by 2017. Key assumptions are: - a 5-year |
| CAGR in sales of 11% followed by an five-year CAGR of 6% and a perpetuity growth rate |
| of 2%, - an average EBIT margin of 13%, - a WACC of 9.5% with a beta of 0.9x. Our |
| WACC is calculated using a RFR of 5.0% and an ERP of 6.0%. We used a 2% terminal |
| growth rate. |
| The risks to our PO are company-specific issues such as a failure to deliver the expected |
| 11% top-line growth or a faster-than-expected deterioration in electronics margins. In |
| addition, there are risks associated with a slowdown in the economy or consumer |
| spending. |
| Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Company (XDUAF) |
| We apply a justified P/E multiple to derive SAFCO's PO of SAR72. The P/E is based on a |
| normalized RoE of 30.2%, Cost of Equity of 10.4% and payout of 93.5%. |
| Upside risks to our price objective are: (1) delays in global nitrogen fertilizers capacity |
| expansions, which would result in a tighter supply of urea and effectively higher prices, |
| (2) Stronger demand for fertilizers and effectively prices, (3) An increase in the marginal |
| producer cost that effectively leads to a higher urea price floor. |
| Downside risks are: (1) lower prices of urea due to weaker than expected demand, (2) |
| Delay in SAFCO 5 expansion project, (3) an increase in natural gas cost. |
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (XAUBF) |
| We apply a justified P/E multiple to derive SABIC's PO of SAR99.5. The P/E is based on a |
| normalised RoE of 15.8%, Cost of Equity of 11.5% and payout of 65.0% |
| Downside risks to our price objective are a decline in the supply of low-cost feedstock, a |
| lower-than-expected recovery in petrochemicals prices, delays in the ramp-up of newly |
| established subsidiaries, or weakness in steel demand in Saudi Arabia. |
| Saudi Telecom Company (STC) (XUTUF) |
| We derive our SAR81/share PO for STC on a sum of the parts basis, using a combination |
| of DCF and market valuations for its core subsidiaries and associates, adjusting for |
| ownership stakes. Specifically, we use DCF to value its core operations in Saudi Arabia |
| (9.5% WACC), Viva Kuwait (10.5% WACC), and other subsidiaries (10.1% WACC). We |
| 2a Merrill Lynch |
| GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 |
| 79 |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016189 |
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