| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014751)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014751" |
| ocrPages: 1 |
| ocrChars: 1328 |
| ocrElapsed: 0.0 |
| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
| externalSource: "greg-ep-nov-12" |
| externalLicense: "not granted" |
| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| Chart 38: Low repo rates and ECB QE tapering push 10s to pre-QE levels |
| Chart 39: 10y Germany is historically cheap on the OlS curve |
| 20 |
| 40 |
| Periphery blow-out |
| ECB QElannounc. Brexit |
| OlS-Bund spread |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 35 |
| 30 |
| 25 |
| -10 |
| 20 |
| 15 |
| -20 |
| 10 |
| -30 |
| 5 |
| - 255s |
| 2510p |
| -40 + |
| Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 |
| Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research |
| 0 + |
| Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 |
| Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research |
| Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 |
| 10s would be particularly supported if the ECB increases the holding limit of non-CaC |
| bonds to 50% - a tweak we see as the most likely. Also, given the already stretched |
| valuations in the Zy, we think a rise in geopolitical risks or a blow-out in peripheral |
| spreads would increase collateral values of 5s and 10s more than the front-end - as |
| happened during the first BTP spread widening in 2011 or the Brexit referendum. |
| We recommend investors go long the DBR Aug26 vs OIS and short the BKO Dec18 |
| Is OIS at current levels of -17bp, targeting 14bp and with a stop at -34bp. The |
| position has 1.1 bp in 3m Carry and Roll. The main risk in the short term is ECB OE |
| failure, while tighter short-maturity securities supply or lending is the main risk over the |
| longer term. |
| Bankof America T |
| Merrill Lynch |
| Global Rates, FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016 |
| 21 |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014751 |
|
|
