| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014898)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014898" |
| ocrPages: 1 |
| ocrChars: 2475 |
| ocrElapsed: 0.0 |
| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
| externalSource: "greg-ep-nov-12" |
| externalLicense: "not granted" |
| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| Chart 8: Google ex-FX Y/Y growth trends |
| 30% |
| 25% |
| 20% |
| 15% |
| 10% |
| 5% |
| 0% |
| 28% |
| 1 24% |
| 25% |
| 22% |
| 24%22% 24% 22% |
| 21¼8% |
| 1Q15 |
| 3Q15 |
| 4Q17E |
| •Total Google Revenue YY (ex-FX) |
| -Google Website YTY (ex-FX) |
| Source: Company reports, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research |
| For core margins, we assume y/y contraction through 3Q17, after which we model a |
| slight uptick in 4Q17. For the year, we assume core Google margins contract 50bps to |
| 46.1%. In terms of blended Alphabet non-GAAP operating margins, we assume 70bps of |
| y/y contraction to 40.7% in 2017, but won't be surprised if better cost discipline |
| (particularly in Other Bets) drives more stable y/y trends. |
| Table 9: Core Google non-GAAP operating margin forecast |
| 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E |
| Core Google non-GAAP operating margin 46.5% 47.9% 46.5% 45.5% 45.8% 46.5% 45.6% 46.4% 45.6% 46.5% |
| 1.4% 1.6% - 1.0% - 1.5% -0.7% -1.4% -0.9% |
| -0.2% -0.1% |
| Source: Company, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research |
| Biggest 1Q issues/risks: |
| Deceleration in Google Website revenue: There could be modest revenue |
| pressure due to YouTube boycott impact, and/or ad shift to Facebook. One SEM |
| suggested a modest uptick in advertising spend on maps, which could be a positive |
| in 2017. |
| • TAC to distribution partners: Rising TAC rate (Apple, Samsung) could mitigate |
| potential gross revenue upside in the higher margin mobile search segment. |
| • Growth investments could drag on margins: Investments in Google Cloud, |
| hardware, and YouTube could be higher than we expect, which could negatively |
| impact core Google margins and raise concerns on long-term sustainable margin |
| levels. |
| • YouTube/Display Network commentary: While we do not expect full resolution on |
| the YouTube/Display Network issues, management's tone will likely impact |
| expectations for timing of a fix, corresponding costs, magnitude of the boycott |
| losses, and time to recover lost ad spend. |
| • Stock comp timing shift could cause some GAAP lumpiness: Shift in timing of |
| annual stock-based comp grants could impact 1Q EPS, but should be offset with |
| lower relative cost in 2H17. |
| Top 1Q data point: |
| Our early 1Q checks (pre quarter end) have been mostly positive, but most checks did |
| not contemplate a potential impact of the YouTube & Display Network pullback. |
| ComScore PC click data has suggested Google PC queries are down 3% q/q QTD, slightly |
| worse than the 2% q/q decline in 1Q16. |
| 12 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 |
| Bankof America®a |
| Verrill Lynch |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014898 |
|
|
