| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014445)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014445" |
| ocrPages: 1 |
| ocrChars: 2345 |
| ocrElapsed: 0.0 |
| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
| externalSource: "greg-ep-nov-12" |
| externalLicense: "not granted" |
| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| Chart 23: AUD fell post US elections... |
| Chart 24: ...GBP has held up so far but article 50 looms in Q1 |
| 0.8 |
| 0.78 |
| —AUD/USD, |
| 0.76 |
| 0.74 - |
| 0.72 |
| 1.55 |
| 1.5 |
| 1.45 |
| 1.4 |
| 1.35 |
| 1.3 |
| 0.7 |
| 1.25 |
| → GBP/USD |
| 0.68 |
| 1.2 |
| Oct-15 |
| Nov-15 |
| Dec-15 |
| Jan-16 |
| Feb-16 |
| Mar-16 • |
| Apr-16 - |
| May-16 - |
| Jun-16 - |
| Jul-16 - |
| Aug-16 - |
| Sep-16 - |
| Oct-16 - |
| Nov-16 - |
| Source: Bloomberg |
| Source: Bloomberg |
| Today we add a CNH put (expressed as a USD/CNH call at 7.6 strike) partly because it |
| fits with our positive USD call but also because it is a potential hedge against the trade |
| rhetoric of the new administration descending into something more meaningful. Given |
| the stated intent to declare the Chinese as currency manipulators and the concern that |
| our currency strategists already have about the amount of reserves the Chinese hold, it |
| is not impossible to imagine a much weaker CNY/CNH should the Chinese authorities |
| allow a free float. We see this as a sensible hedge against our long EM equity position. |
| Chart 25: CNH continues to weaken, risk of more on trade tensions? |
| Chart 26: RUB/ZAR choppy on oil and SA politics |
| 6.9 |
| 0.25 |
| - CNH/USD |
| 6.8 |
| 0.24 |
| 6.7 |
| 0.23 |
| 6.6 |
| 6.5 |
| 0.21 |
| 6.4 |
| 6.3 |
| 0.2 |
| - RUB/ZAR |
| 6.2 |
| Oct-15 |
| Nov-15 - |
| Source: Bloomberg |
| Dec-15 - |
| Jan-16 - |
| Feb-16 - |
| Mar-16 - |
| Apr-16 - |
| May-16 - |
| Jun-16 - |
| Jul-16 - |
| Aug-16 - |
| Sep-16 - |
| Oct-16 - |
| Source: Bloomberg |
| We have two other standalone currency trades, short EUR/SEK and long RUB/ZAR. The |
| former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think |
| that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will |
| sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for |
| this pair to move in 2017, particularly if there are political concerns ahead of the French |
| presidential elections as these will likely weigh on the EUR. |
| RUB/ZAR has been quite erratic since we re-established the trade, reflecting both |
| volatility in the oil price and developments in South African politics. The latest no |
| confidence vote against President Zuma underlines how tricky South African politics are |
| at the moment. Concerns will remain on the economic progress of the country until the |
| political situation becomes clearer. In the meantime we expect a higher risk premium to |
| be associated with the currency. |
| 14 |
| Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 |
| Bon America a |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014445 |
|
|
