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| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014925)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014925" |
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| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
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| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| Trivago (Buy, $15 PO) |
| Stock view: Advertising continues to drive growth engine |
| Trivago's 4Q revenue and EBITDA results highlight the company's rapid revenue growth |
| and potential for solid profitability. Though there are concerns over the company's large |
| marketing spend (80-85% of revenue), we think the Street will view Trivago's results |
| positively given continued revenue ramp while also achieving profitability. The stock |
| remains highly volatile given the limited float. Commentary during 4Q'16 earnings from |
| Trivago's key customers Expedia and Priceline (as well as from TripAdvisor) indicated |
| that paid traffic has been growing faster than free traffic, and that companies in the |
| sector planned to ramp ad spend to drive continued traffic growth, which is a positive |
| for Trivago. |
| Trivago has best-in-class revenue growth, with 2017 revenue growth expected at 47% |
| (vs. guidance of 45%+), led by 50% qualified referral growth. We also expect Trivago will |
| become more efficient with advertising and start to reap the benefits of past brand |
| advertising, with return on advertising spend (ROAS) improving across regions in 2017, |
| a key driver of modestly improving EBITDA margin from 3.7% in 2016 to 3.9% in 2017. |
| The company remains in growth mode, led by click revenue growth in ROW and |
| Americas regions, as Trivago is driving brand awareness outside its key European |
| foothold through aggressive brand marketing. The company is adding qualified referrals |
| at an accelerating rate as it expands beyond its core Developed Europe markets and |
| penetrates new markets. We think the company has significant runway for growth and |
| can sustain 30%+ revenue growth through the end of the decade. As the business |
| matures in its new Americas and ROW markets, we expect a better balance between |
| profit and growth. We think EBITDA margins should accelerate as the company |
| leverages '16 and '17 marketing spend, with greater uplift in '18. |
| Key theme/metric(s) for 1Q: Qualified referral growth |
| We forecast 56% qualified referral growth in 1Q (920bps deceleration on 730bps |
| tougher y/y comp), led by 38% y/y growth in Developed Europe, 48% in Americas, and |
| 110% in ROW. We expect continued robust marketing spend will drive user growth. |
| Biggest 1Q issues/risks: |
| • Weak return on advertising spend (ROAS) may be an earnings headwind. |
| Competition in the company's advertising channels may result in lower ROl trends. |
| The company may also see less efficient advertising in newer, less mature markets. |
| • A positive update to 2017 guidance may be expected. Trivago currently expects |
| total revenue growth of 45%+ and adjusted EBITDA margin is guided to flat to |
| slightly up vs. 2016's 3.7%. |
| Estimates vs. Consensus: Expect revenue in-line vs. the Street, EBITDA ahead |
| For 1Q, we expect revenue/EBITDA of €241mn/(€12mn) vs. the Street at |
| €241mn/(€10mn). We expect 2017 and 2018 revenue and EBITDA to come above the |
| Street and expect there is room for upside to management's 2017 revenue growth and |
| EBITDA margin guidance. |
| Table 26: Trivago Estimate Summary |
| Revenue |
| 1Q17 |
| 2Q17 |
| BofAML est. |
| Growth Y/Y% |
| Street |
| BofAML est. vs. Street |
| EBITDA |
| BofAML est. |
| Street |
| BofAML est. vs. Street |
| EPS |
| €241 |
| 52% |
| €241 |
| Below |
| €12 |
| €10 |
| Above |
| €281 |
| 57% |
| €270 |
| Above |
| €6 |
| €6 |
| Below |
| 2017 |
| €1,105 |
| 47% |
| €1,088 |
| Above |
| €44 |
| €40 |
| Above |
| 2018 |
| €1,498 |
| 36% |
| €1,497 |
| Above |
| €127 |
| €98 |
| Above |
| 2019 |
| €1,984 |
| 32% |
| €2,035 |
| Below |
| €262 |
| €197 |
| Above |
| Bankof America® |
| Merrill Lynch |
| Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 |
| 39 |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014925 |
|
|
