| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_010611)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
| eftaNumber: "HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_010611" |
| ocrPages: 1 |
| ocrChars: 2068 |
| ocrElapsed: 0.0 |
| parseTier: "external-legacy" |
| engine: "engine undisclosed (ep-nov-12.greg.technology mirror)" |
| externalSource: "greg-ep-nov-12" |
| externalLicense: "not granted" |
| externalCredit: "ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| externalUrl: "https://ep-nov-12.greg.technology" |
| --- |
| |
| The Bank of Mexico will meet on 29 September, and a 50bp rate hike is already priced in |
| (Chart 4). A stronger hike, perhaps of 75bp, or a 50bp rate hike accompanied by a |
| hawkish statement could lead to MXN strengthening in the very short run. |
| Chart 3: Net speculative USD/MXN position in CFTC |
| 8 |
| 6 |
| -2 |
| -4 |
| -6 |
| -8 |
| 2013 |
| 20 |
| 19 |
| 18 |
| 17 |
| 16 |
| 15 |
| 14 |
| 13 |
| 12 |
| Chart 4: Bank of Mexico expected to hike |
| 300 |
| 250 |
| 200 |
| 150 |
| 100 |
| 50 |
| 0 |
| 2012 |
| 6 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 2014 |
| 2015 |
| Net Dollar position |
| Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg |
| 2016 |
| - MXN |
| 2013 |
| 2014 |
| 2015 |
| spread |
| • 1y TIE |
| Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg |
| 2016 |
| -ONR |
| Notable Rates and FX Research |
| * Global Rates & Currencies 2016 Year Ahead, 23 November 2015 |
| * USD/MXN builds momentum, FX Quant Trader, 19 Sep 2016 |
| * Central banks still the only game in town, Global Rates and FX Weekly, 15 Sep 2016 |
| * Land of the rising bond yield, US Rates Weekly, 16 Sep 2016 |
| * Policy uncertainty, Liquid Cross Border Flows, 19 Sep 2016 |
| Key trade ideas |
| Top Rates and FX trades for 2016 |
| For rationale and details, refer to Global Rates & Currencies 2016 Year Ahead: The |
| "Great Divorce", 23 November, 2015 |
| Rates: |
| Buy US 30y TIPS, entry: 1.2%, target: 70bp, stop loss: 1.55% |
| Closed at 101bp (3 Mar 2016): Short USD 5y5y vs EUR 5y5y, entry: 115 bp, target: 160 |
| bp, stop-loss: 90 bp (3 Sep 2015) |
| Long $100mn 6m5y ATMF UK vs $100.75mn US rates straddles, net take-in: $126K, |
| target: +450K, stop: -$225K |
| Sell 3y Fannie Mae debt vs Treasuries, entry: 6bp, stop: 2bp, target: 20bp |
| Closed at 11bp - Long 12m Treasury bills vs OIS, entry: 1bp, target: -10bp, stop: 7bp |
| FX: |
| Closed at 6.5630 (26 May 2016): Buy USD/CNH 6m forward outright, entry: 6.5260. |
| stop: 6.40 |
| Long a 12m USD/CNH forward outright, entry: 6.7485, target 7.00, stop: 6.67, current: |
| 6.7420 (26 May 2016) |
| Closed at 0% - Buy EUR/USD 3m 1.10 call with a 16 Dec 1.1050 window KO, cost: |
| 0.55% EUR (spot: 1.0690) |
| Buy 1y EUR/USD<1.00, USD/JPY<120 dual digital, cost: 7.0% USD (spot: 1.0690, 122.80) |
| Bankof America. |
| Merrill Lynch |
| Liquid Insight | 22 September 2016 |
| 3 |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_010611 |
|
|
