| --- |
| title: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12) (HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014465)" |
| source: "House Oversight: Estate Documents (Nov 12)" |
| sourceUrl: "https://www.justice.gov/epstein" |
| date: "2026-01-01" |
| category: "House Oversight" |
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| --- |
| |
| Marine Le Pen victory could bring into question both the future of the EU and also the |
| euro, should the polls be close it could make the uncertainty and market moves around |
| Brexit look like a walk in the park. |
| 2017 - Reflation, Reversal, Rotation, Relief or Revolt? |
| 2017 is likely to have a number of cross currents as themes. Recovery and Rotation go |
| hand in hand. The stronger the recovery the more yields can rise the more we can see |
| the rotation extend. Should investors become concerned that the recovery is stalling or |
| that yields are peaking the rotation would likely stall potentially even reverse. Reversal |
| refers to the ECB. Our economists are not yet convinced that the ECB will start to |
| unravel some of its easing measures in 2017 but they do expect the debate to be a |
| vigorous one within the ECB. For the first time Gilles Moec thinks there is a chance that |
| the ECB will indeed choose to taper. Relief or Revolt relates to the French election. Will |
| Europe follow the UK and US lead of 2016 and go down the route of populism (revolt |
| from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets if by the end of 2017 from a |
| Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the two largest economies in the Euro Area. |
| Recovery - the world looks a better place going into 2017 |
| Reflation has been the big theme of the second half of the year. As we had noted in |
| previous publications there had been something of an improvement in the global growth |
| picture emerging even before the US election. It started with Emerging Market growth, |
| which our GEMScycle has been showing to be accelerating for some months, but seems |
| to have spread to other parts of the developing world. US GDP for Q3 has just printed a |
| revised 3.2%, with a number of indicators, such as ISM's, PMI's and consumer |
| confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% |
| according to the Atlanta Fed. |
| Chart 13: Eurozone PMl's have picked up of late... |
| Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs |
| 60.0 |
| 55.0 |
| 50.0 |
| 45.0 |
| 80 |
| 60 |
| 40 |
| 20 |
| Jan-1 |
| Jan-1 |
| - US Consumer Confidence... |
| EA Services PMI • |
| -EA Manufacturing PMI |
| 40.0 |
| Aug-09 |
| Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 |
| Source: Markit |
| Source: Bloomberg |
| The Euro Area too is showing signs of improvement with the latest manufacturing PMIs |
| back to their best since early 2014 with other national surveys, such as Ifo pointing ir |
| the same direction. The composite PMI is back close to the year highs too. The UK |
| numbers continue to surprise on the upside too for the moment. Our economists are |
| also upbeat on Japan with growth expected to accelerate next year as the fiscal stimulus |
| kicks in. |
| Accordingly our economists expect growth to rise from 3% this year to 3.5% in 2017 |
| and 3.8% in 2018. That acceleration in growth is despite a slightly slower US economy |
| in the first half of the year as a higher USD and interest rates dampen growth before |
| the fiscal stimulus kicks in. With growth firming and oil prices expected to be higher |
| inflation is also expected to pick up through 2017 and 2018 to 2.8% and 3% |
| respectively. At this stage it is worth noting that this is a modest acceleration in both |
| growth and inflation. |
| 6 |
| European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 |
| Barri America e |
| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014465 |
|
|
