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  1. extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010977.txt +7 -0
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extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010977.txt ADDED
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1
+ The ants and the
2
+ picnickers can compete for the lunch, but they cannot bargain for it. The bar in Star
3
+ Wars is a great gag because it thumbs its nose at this home truth. We converge in
4
+ taste for the hilarious. We hate unnecessary
5
+ axioms, from good Occamite principle, but we hate unsupported inference or
6
+ question-begging worse. I spell out the axiom of mortality and reproduction because I know I'm heading
7
+ towards Petty's insight and next generation theory.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010985.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ The rule does not say that risk-adjusted return tends to hold constant over time. Return equals growth plus cash flow, and my charts show the growth
2
+ component as a bucking bronco. The maximand rule says only that risk-adjusted
3
+ return is always the maximand. It is not always the same as time changes
4
+ circumstances. Proof is in Turgot's equalization of return at each moment, not from
5
+ one moment to the next.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010986.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Drive a truck filled
2
+ with dynamite into a crowd of unbelievers? Write a book on economics when I have
3
+ no credentials? Behavior reveals taste satisfaction in the broad sense including provision
4
+ for future satisfactions. Tastes, Aims and Ends
5
+ I usually mean the word "tastes"
6
+ as objectives whose satisfaction exhausts capital
7
+ value. We see current taste satisfaction at mealtimes.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010989.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Basic Glossary
2
+ I use standard terms when I can find them, and coin new ones like "aims" and "ends"
3
+ when I can't. But even standard ones are ambiguous. Look up "capital" or "output" or "cash flow", for example, in any
4
+ economic dictionary. Definitions include:
5
+ Aims:
6
+ Capital:
7
+ Cash flow:
8
+ Ends:
9
+ Exhaust:
10
+ Flow:
11
+ Human capital:
12
+ Income:
13
+ Invested consumption:
14
+ Maximand rule:
15
+ Net transfer:
16
+ Intention to maximize the sum of current taste
17
+ satisfactions plus gift, plus growth in means of future
18
+ satisfactions...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010990.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Output:
2
+ Physical capital:
3
+ Present value rule:
4
+ Profit:
5
+ Pure consumption:
6
+ Rate:
7
+ Creation of wealth, or equivalently of capital of either
8
+ factor. Capital whose outside operating cost does not satisfy
9
+ tastes. Capital of either value is expected cash flow discounted
10
+ at our time preference rate. Quantity measured as a flow over a stock, and
11
+ equivalently as a pure number over time. Stock:
12
+ Tastes:
13
+ Total return rule (or total
14
+ return truism):
15
+ Transfer in:
16
+ Transfer out:
17
+ Wage:
18
+ Work:
19
+ Output equals capital...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010993.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ The whole series of instruments
2
+ owned by the society would be somewhat more productive, and would be
3
+ carried to an order of quicker returns."
4
+ The clearest expression, and probably clearest even today, came from Mill in 1848. He put it that output growth can precede and explain capital growth as well as the
5
+ reverse. Crediting Rae, he wrote:
6
+ There are other cases in which the term saving, with the associations usually
7
+ belonging to it, does not exactly fit the operation by which capital...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010994.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ My appendix will cover them and more in notation. Mill's equation may be as old as economics, although I haven't found it put explicitly
2
+ before Keynes wrote it in his General Theory 1936. We
3
+ have to mean total capital growth and pure consumption. Mill and tradition have
4
+ meant physical capital and all consumption. That leaves me with something like the heuristic problem of Halliday and Resnick.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010995.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Investment, for Keynes, meant creation of new productive assets. He was right in
2
+ seeing that as the goal. But his analysis leaves too much outside. What I miss is a
3
+ variable for investment quality. Investments in new productive assets in 1929 or
4
+ 2008 yielded negative return.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010996.txt ADDED
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1
+ Less return makes less growth than consumption sacrificed, and more makes more. But collective return can be a surprise. The cost of investment in consumption given up, whether individually or collectively,
2
+ never agrees exactly with what it proves to be worth at market. Gunnar Myrdal, in
3
+ 1939, coined the terms ex ante for the first and ex post for the second. Ex ante (at cost) and ex post (at market) investment agree when market-realized
4
+ return holds unchanged.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010997.txt ADDED
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1
+ I think it is the consensus
2
+ view, as well as Keynes', that his "attempted saving" means gross saving (gross
3
+ income less consumption) not invested in new productive assets. That can be
4
+ written as
5
+ Keynesian attempted saving - transfer payments
6
+ = Keynesian net saving = Keynesian net investment,
7
+ at any scale. I accept Keynes' definition of transfer payments, and I recognize the importance of
8
+ his distinction of those from investment in new productive assets which put idle
9
+ plant and workers to work....
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010998.txt ADDED
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1
+ some consumption is investment in human capital. It will first take account of the fact that Keynes
2
+ meant investment and saving as to physical capital only, with labor or human capital
3
+ to arrive exogenously as an outcome somehow of consumption. That led to the
4
+ Y = I + C equation
5
+ output = investment + consumption.
6
+ (4.1)
7
+ Gross and net versions of (4.1) meant gross and net of depreciation. Thus
8
+ gross output = gross investment + consumption
9
+ (4.1a)
10
+ and
11
+ net output = net investment +...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/10/house-oversight-010999.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Growth Mechanics
2
+ Start with simplicity. Imagine a changeless world where people and things replicate
3
+ themselves exactly. Chapter 3 showed that in total capital terms including human
4
+ capital, although neither Mill nor Keynes used them, depreciation of both factors
5
+ together, net of transfers from one to the other, equals exhaust in taste satisfaction. "Replacement investment," or "depreciation investment," is just enough to turn the
6
+ generations over as new (net) output makes up the loss to...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011000.txt ADDED
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1
+ Edward West had written in 1815 that in economies already developed, there isn't
2
+ much room for more capital of the same kind. Its productivity disappears in capital
3
+ glut and diminishing returns. There could still be growth when some of the new
4
+ ideas would need only redeployment of existing kinds of capital, as in relocating
5
+ production nearer to the market or cutting out the middleman. This redeployment
6
+ was Solow's "disembodied growth." But growth after that have to come from capital
7
+ new in...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011001.txt ADDED
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1
+ We were paying them as homo habilis two million years ago. The cost went up, but
2
+ the value of innovation just as much, when homo erectus arrived a little later. Both
3
+ rose again with the emergence of Ancestral Eve 200,000 years ago. Adaptation is the
4
+ human specialty. Innovation is adaptation that
5
+ happens to become new norms.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011002.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ That still leaves the mystery only half solved. How exogenous (sourced from
2
+ outside) are the genius and happenstance? Can we coax them along by policy? What seems reasonably clear is that growth flourishes in
3
+ secular free markets with solid infrastructure and rule of law. The Free Growth Equations
4
+ Now back to Mill's argument.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011003.txt ADDED
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1
+ Mill and Keynes and tradition hold (4.2) and (4.2a) as logical certitudes which hold
2
+ constant over time. Constancy over time would
3
+ imply
4
+ change in growth = change in output - change in consumption.
5
+ (4.3)
6
+ I take the trouble to derive this as a road I haven't preferred to follow. Rates, or ratios of flows to capital, effectively
7
+ cancel capital from numerator and denominator. Mill's idea,
8
+ or anyhow mine, is that the ratio of consumption to capital in all those countries can
9
+ hold constant. This...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011004.txt ADDED
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1
+ growth rate = capital productivity + thrift rate.
2
+ (4.4b)
3
+ Notice that we must change the sign before "consumption rate" to find thrift. Change
4
+ downward in consumption rate is change upward in thrift rate, and conversely. Further
5
+ change in growth rate = change in capital productivity
6
+ - change in consumption rate,
7
+ by the same logic as with (4.3). Save space again by reexpressing (4.5) as
8
+ acceleration = productivity gain + thrift gain. Finally divide by acceleration to reach
9
+ (4.5)
10
+ (4.5a)
11
+ 1=...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011005.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ (4.5) shows something about "balance" or the state where capital, consumption and
2
+ output grow at the same rate. It confirms the standard teaching that balance is
3
+ possible, although not compelled, when growth rate is constant. It also shows that
4
+ balance is impossible when growth rate changes. No one disputes that capital
5
+ productivity (output/capital) always leads, and consumption rate
6
+ (consumption/capital) always lags, in accelerations up and down. In the case where the free growth index equals...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011006.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ This shows how to find the position of capital in the sequence led by output, and
2
+ how to test between free growth and thrift theories. The market-valued capital
3
+ denominator in (4.7) and (4.7a), and the consumption numerator in (4.7), can be
4
+ taken directly from national accounts data collected at the Piketty-Zucman website. By (4.7), free growth theory (Mill's idea) predicts a
5
+ roughly constant consumption/capital ratio, even in accelerations and decelerations
6
+ and reversals. Then capital...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011007.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ acceleration = free acceleration + thrift acceleration.
2
+ (4.5b)
3
+ Rates are flows divided by capital expressing them. Then define the two flows as
4
+ free growth = capital free acceleration, and
5
+ thrift = capital thrift acceleration,
6
+ giving
7
+ growth = free growth + thrift.
8
+ (4.8)
9
+ (4.9)
10
+ (4.10)
11
+ These equations apply equally in continuous or discrete-period time. In the latter,
12
+ they leave the periods of acceleration and growth unspecified. Marginal or current
13
+ free growth, as with the speed of a car, is...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011008.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ I also downloaded real stock market rates of growth, dividends
2
+ and return from the Global Financial Data website for the same years and countries. Yearly change in capital in each country gave each year's capital growth as a flow. I said earlier
3
+ that Piketty and Zucman should logically have done the same. The test from Global Financial Data took fewer steps. This allows tests of Mill's idea from national accounts data for all eight nations
4
+ reported at the Piketty-Zucman website, and over their...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011009.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Interpreting the Charts and Tables
2
+ Now look again at the charts captioned "free growth index" in the appendix. Each chart covering free growth
3
+ tracks three separate versions of the free growth index labeled (K), (K) and
4
+ Ф(SM). The powerful spikes both up and down in the free growth charts were described in
5
+ Chapter 2. Spikes tend to be explained by the fact that acceleration, the denominator
6
+ in both the free growth and the thrift index, is occasionally close to zero. Some
7
+ charts report the free...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011010.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ The means of growth Mill describes in the paragraph
2
+ quoted is the only kind that appears in the record. Evidence from Stock Markets
3
+ Market-valued capital, reported in national accounts since 1990 or so and
4
+ assembled at the convenient Piketty-Zucman website, is measured by a common
5
+ standard in principle. Measurement begins with stock markets. The stock
6
+ market is the most exact source of economic information that I know. We would know better if markets were perfectly efficient.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011011.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ It is a mistake, I think, to suppose that
2
+ shares prices would be less volatile if more descriptive of real value underneath. The existence of trends suggests the opposite. Trends would be expected from
3
+ systematic underreaction to the news, so that reaction catches up later, while
4
+ systematic overreaction ought to be followed by adjustment in the opposite
5
+ direction. This gradual rather than immediate digestion of the news would tend to
6
+ smooth out price response. Trends imply systematic...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011012.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Stock prices collectively, meaning all shares at
2
+ current prices, is called "market cap." (Cap is capitalization.) Market cap does not
3
+ measure the whole underlying value of the issuers, meaning firms that issued the
4
+ stock, since there are debt claims that must be paid off first. National accounts measure market-valued (physical) capital by beginning with
5
+ market cap. The sum is "private wealth." Consumer durables such
6
+ as cars and refrigerators are excluded as impractical to price. Finding the...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011013.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Global Financial Data reports annual rate of return, growth rate in market cap, and
2
+ "imputed dividend rate" as the difference. Dividend rate itself is reported as
3
+ something a little different. I made no attempt to get to the bottom of this distinction,
4
+ just as I made none to allow for editorial bias in the Piketty-Zucman website. "Productivity gain" in (4.5) is simply annual change
5
+ in reported rate of return. Gains in
6
+ dividend rate have coincided as often with gains in market cap growth rate as...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011014.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ It would be nice to test from such a dataset, again starting from (4.6), to see if free
2
+ growth theory holds again. Meanwhile, I think, the case is closed. All
3
+ growth at very large scales is free until proved otherwise. What should we make of this evidence for free growth in national accounts and
4
+ stock market data? Tax laws discourage consumption and dividends to encourage growth.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011015.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Steady-state growth would not be
2
+ affected, but intermediate-run transitions would, and those should be observable. That idea seemed to correspond to common sense, and it still does. Edward Denison was another leading growth economist Solow consulted. Remember that Solow had defined disembodied growth to mean better use of
3
+ existing assets, as when ships carrying coal to Newcastle are inspired to reverse the
4
+ business plan. But Solow puzzled how embodied growth, which needs "new and...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011016.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Instead of redeploying finished goods, we recombine raw materials. And growth is not so free that it needs no cost at
2
+ all. It still needs depreciation plowback. The steady stroke metaphor, showing how cost (the steady stroke) and growth
3
+ (against the shoreline) could be desynchronized, explains the possibility of free
4
+ growth. Ricardo, Malthus and West all warned against rote replication in economies already
5
+ developed.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011017.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ What exactly do I picture as this capital reserve? Harrod's Knife Edge
2
+ Solow's neoclassical growth model developed from ideas published a decade earlier
3
+ by Roy Harrod. Harrod had described a "warranted growth path" given by the pace
4
+ of technological innovation. He reasoned correctly that any effort to push
5
+ investment faster must soon founder in the diminishing returns foreseen by Malthus,
6
+ Ricardo and West in 1815. But how could we get investment exactly right?
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011018.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ depreciation plowback in light of the diminishing returns described by Ricardo,
2
+ Malthus and West two centuries ago. We might crowd our niche, like other
3
+ creatures, and leave neither consumption safe to spare nor room for capital
4
+ accumulation before diminishing returns set in. No thrift at all, meaning not even depreciation plowback, would
5
+ mean no growth at all. Then consumption rate would vary inversely as capital
6
+ acceleration, just as predicted in in thrift theory. And underinvestment,...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011019.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ We must
2
+ tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income. Dividend rates should revert
3
+ to the 4% - 6% range typical over the centuries before the pro-investment policies
4
+ put in place after World War II. We must do whatever we can to level the
5
+ consumption-investment playing field. Free
6
+ growth theory assumes depreciation investment, not zero investment. There are inevitably errors and judgment biases in
7
+ the national accounts and research assembled by Piketty and Zucman, more added
8
+ by them,...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011020.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ CHAPTER 5: BRINGING HUMAN CAPITAL IN
2
+ Human capital is labor measured as a dollar sum rather than as so much per hour or
3
+ year. Wikipedia is mistaken in attributing the term to Arthur
4
+ Pigou a generation later. History of the Idea
5
+ The concept began with Petty in 16644. He estimated the aggregate pay of English
6
+ workers, and divided by the discount rate he had modeled in A Treatise of Taxes two
7
+ years earlier. It follows that he underestimated the
8
+ human capital of England, rather than overestimating...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011021.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ out the human capital of children. But Farr deserves credit for pointing out that
2
+ human capital in general capitalizes pay less invested consumption. Keynes' teacher Alfred Marshall agreed with Farr in 19907. As I read this passage,
3
+ Marshall interpreted maintenance consumption as investment. The conversion of some consumption into human capital was a favorite theme of
4
+ Frank Knight a generation before Schultz.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011022.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Jacob Mincer seems to have been first in print with the post-war revival of interest
2
+ in human capital, in his 1958 paper10 rederiving Irving Fisher's present value
3
+ equation and stressing job training. He usually avoided math, unlike the others, and
4
+ is probably the best source for quotes in plain English. His paper Investment in
5
+ Human Capital, published in 1961, includes:
6
+ ... Much of what we call consumption constitutes investment in human capital. In 196211 he added:
7
+ ... the investment in human...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011023.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ But unlike the wonderful "one-hoss shay," the productive life of educational
2
+ capital typically does not go to pieces all at once. As already noted, educational capital, like reproducible physical capital, is subject
3
+ to depreciation and obsolescence. The established tax treatment takes account of
4
+ both depreciation and obsolescence in the case of physical capital, but this
5
+ accounting is not extended to education capital... These excerpts clearly show Shultz' meanings of pure and invested...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011024.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ But Petty showed that the idea of human capital as discounted cash
2
+ flow measured in a money sum allows the factors to be summed together. The
3
+ revival of interest at the Chicago school soon introduced the term physical capital
4
+ for land and man-made things that can be bought and sold, and total capital for the
5
+ sum. Physical capital is a misnomer in that we are physical too. From the Y = C + I Equation to the Y Rule
6
+ Chapter 2 summarized my argument adjusting the Y = C + I equation to the Y rule....
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011025.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Total growth means this ex post net investment (growth of physical capital) plus
2
+ growth of human capital. The latter would have puzzled us before the contribution
3
+ of Ben-Porath. Equation (4) in his 1967 paper, summarizing the first three, shows
4
+ human growth = invested consumption + self-invested work
5
+ - human depreciation,
6
+ (5.2)
7
+ using my terms rather than his. Work is the output of human capital. Then
8
+ it must be corrected either to
9
+ human growth = invested consumption + positive self-invested...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011026.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Schultz' analysis of consumption found
2
+ consumption = invested consumption + pure consumption.
3
+ (5.4)
4
+ This plus (5.1) and (5.3a) combine for
5
+ output = total growth + pure consumption
6
+ = investment + human growth + pure consumption
7
+ = investment + invested consumption + self-invested work
8
+ - recovered human depreciation + pure consumption
9
+ = investment + invested consumption + self-invested work
10
+ - recovered human depreciation + consumption
11
+ - invested consumption
12
+ = investment + consumption +...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011027.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ total growth
2
+ total capital
3
+ output
4
+ total capital
5
+ pure consumption
6
+ total capital
7
+ -,
8
+ (5.6)
9
+ which can be written as
10
+ total growth rate = total capital productivity
11
+ - pure consumption rate,
12
+ (5.6a)
13
+ as with (4.3a). Since (5.6a) is always true, and not only under occasional
14
+ circumstances, we also get
15
+ change in total growth rate = change in total capital productivity
16
+ - change in pure consumption rate.
17
+ (5.7)
18
+ This parallels the logic of (4.4). Again save space by reexpressing this as
19
+ total acceleration =...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011028.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Both
2
+ drop by the amount of Bill's maintenance consumption on Phil's books as a
3
+ slaveowner. So then does Bill's present value of that cash flow. It shows that even if
4
+ slavery were legal and common, its market evidence would neither show the value
5
+ of human capital nor refute the fact that human capital is inalienable. It is
6
+ inalienable for the reason, if none other, that our maintenance consumption satisfies
7
+ no one else's tastes. Phil did not acquire Bill's human capital.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011029.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ My deeper meaning is that invested
2
+ learning and maintenance learning are the same process costing the same time but
3
+ with different economic effect, much as with invested and maintenance
4
+ consumption. Evidence that hourly if not yearly pay rises until retirement, or very near, would
5
+ refute Ben-Porath's claim if human capital ended at retirement. Mill and a few economists before him acknowledged "productive" and
6
+ "unproductive" consumption. The productive kind was what I call maintenance...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011030.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Restating the Three Fourths Rule
2
+ Petty, neglecting human capital of children, measured total capital as about 2.5
3
+ times physical capital in 1664. The ratio of human to physical capital might hold
4
+ to some such lasting norm for the same reason that number of shepherds should
5
+ hold in proportion to number of sheep. Human capital means value of skills, including skills in acquiring and employing
6
+ physical capital. If the value of physical capital changes, so should the value of its
7
+ management. There...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011031.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ means the output of human capital, and nothing in the definition of output implies
2
+ effort or even awareness.)
3
+ I agree with Ben-Porath that all consumption and all work should be modeled as
4
+ self-invested until independence and full-time job entry, given that models must
5
+ simplify. But I just showed why I model all consumption after, or anyhow after a few
6
+ months of job training, as Schultz' pure kind. Here I would fault Mincer and his pupil
7
+ Becker, but not Schultz or Ben-Porath, for too much focus...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011032.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ I also modeled human capital as three fourths of total capital. My tag for the two
2
+ ideas together was the "three fourths rule." The agreement of the two ratios as
3
+ modeled is a convenient coincidence. The Free Growth Index for Total Capital
4
+ Given the three fourths rule, the free growth index for total capital is derived by
5
+ reading "pure" and "total" before the words consumption and capital in the
6
+ equations of Chapter 4. The free growth index for total capital is tracked
7
+ in the red line and...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011033.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ One less something nearer zero, whether that something (the
2
+ thrift index) is positive or negative, is nearer one. The wonderful books of Einstein
3
+ (with Enfeld) and Steven Hawking, not to mention Mill, show that even calculus can
4
+ be put that way. Summary
5
+ The data for the free growth index of total capital (Kt) in the charts and tables do
6
+ not represent a separate test. The Phil and Bill parable shows that not even
7
+ evidence from slave markets would be on point. Whether in words or notation, I hope...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011034.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ The cautions at the end of Chapter 4 apply even more. My charts and tables for
2
+ (K) repeat the accumulated error and bias of those for @(K), and add the crude
3
+ simplification of the three fourths rule. (5.4) expresses my understanding of what
4
+ Ben-Porath means in equation (4) in his 1967 paper, where variables are defined in
5
+ his three equations before. What Farr, Marshall and Kiker have shown, by deducting both invested and
6
+ maintenance consumption from pay to get adult cash flow discounted to...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011035.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ CHAPTER 6: PARALLELS WITH THE FIRM
2
+ My Own History with These Ideas
3
+ For sheer shock value, at least to economists, the pay rule and the Y rule must count
4
+ first amount the surprises I promised. Who would have thought that human
5
+ depreciation is expected to be recovered in revenue (pay) and product value just as
6
+ with plant depreciation? Either the
7
+ maximand rule or the deadweight loss rule is enough. But the pay and Y rules have plenty of those, and may be new to the
8
+ world. Mill and Petty beat me to...
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011036.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ Loan payments are all interest at the start,
2
+ and all amortization at the end, by inference from the present value rule. My risk theory is a mini-surprise. It shifts focus from the risk of the asset to the risk
3
+ aversion of the owner. Assets, Owners and Revenue
4
+ Assets means examples of capital of either factor. Value and growth and cash flow and output are properties of
5
+ capital.
extracted/summaries/house-oversight-nov/11/house-oversight-011037.txt ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ The sum
2
+ of the realized output and decapitalization can be called "gross cash flow", meaning
3
+ gross before deducting plowback and negative cash flow (transfer in). Then
4
+ gross cash flow = cash flow + plowback + transfer in
5
+ = realized output + recovered decapitalization.
6
+ (6.1)
7
+ Here I specify recovered decaptalization because I treat deadweight loss as
8
+ decapitalization too. Cash flow as accountants and businessmen use the term
9
+ usually means gross of plowback, although net of transfer in. The...