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README.md

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+---
+license: cc-by-4.0
+pretty_name: "The Nesyona Effective-Price Index 2026 (AI consumer shrinkflation)"
+language:
+  - en
+tags:
+  - lattice
+  - first-party-data
+  - doi
+  - ai-tools
+source_datasets:
+  - original
+---
+
+# The Nesyona Effective-Price Index 2026 (AI consumer shrinkflation)
+
+First-party research dataset from the **Lattice network**, published open under CC-BY 4.0 with a
+permanent DOI. Nothing here is scraped from another dataset — it is computed and published under a
+single ORCID-verified byline.
+
+| | |
+|---|---|
+| **DOI** | [`10.5281/zenodo.20675138`](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20675138) |
+| **Published by** | Nesyona (`nesyona.com`) |
+| **Study page** | https://nesyona.com/research/real-ai-price-shrinkflation-index-2026/ |
+| **Licence** | CC-BY 4.0 — reuse freely with attribution |
+| **Publication date** | 2026-05-09 |
+
+## What it is
+
+The first public computation of AI consumer effective price per task that accounts for tokenizer inflation and free-tier changes. Effective $/task across Claude Pro, ChatGPT Plus, and ChatGPT Pro for Jan 2026 vs Jun 2026, capturing list-price-flat 'shrinkflation' driven by the Opus 4.7 tokenizer (carried into Opus 4.8). Methodology and full sourcing at https://nesyona.com/research/real-ai-price-shrinkflation-index-2026/ . License CC-BY 4.0.
+
+## Citation
+
+```bibtex
+@dataset{real_ai_price_shrinkflation_index_2026,
+  title  = {The Nesyona Effective-Price Index 2026 (AI consumer shrinkflation)},
+  author = {Couey, Vincent Wesley},
+  year   = {2026},
+  doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.20675138},
+  url    = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20675138}
+}
+```
+
+## Provenance
+
+Part of the Lattice open research index — every study is CC-BY, DOI-backed and published under one
+byline. The full index: <https://www.deepsynthesis.org/#research>

data.json

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+{
+  "metadata": {
+    "name": "The Nesyona Effective-Price Index 2026 (AI Consumer Shrinkflation)",
+    "description": "The first public computation of AI consumer effective price per task that accounts for tokenizer inflation and free-tier changes. Effective $/task across Claude Pro, ChatGPT Plus, and ChatGPT Pro for Jan 2026 vs Jun 2026, capturing list-price-flat 'shrinkflation' driven by the Opus 4.7 tokenizer (carried into Opus 4.8).",
+    "tools": 3,
+    "timeRange": "2026-01 to 2026-06",
+    "datePublished": "2026-06-10",
+    "dateModified": "2026-06-10",
+    "nextReview": "2026-09",
+    "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
+    "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
+    "canonicalUrl": "https://nesyona.com/articles/real-ai-price-shrinkflation-index-2026",
+    "creator": {
+      "name": "Vincent Wesley Couey",
+      "id": "https://nesyona.com/author/vincent-couey#person"
+    },
+    "publisher": {
+      "name": "Nesyona",
+      "url": "https://nesyona.com"
+    },
+    "methodology": "Fixed task basket of 300 tasks/month (avg 850 input + 600 output tokens each), priced at each tool's current list price, multiplied by its tokenizer-inflation factor, then adjusted for free-tier headroom (fraction of the basket the free tier covers). The result is effective $/task: what a moderate-use consumer actually spends per meaningful output task at the current tokenization rate. Tokenizer-inflation factors sourced from OpenRouter, FindSkill, and TokenMix analyses of the Claude Opus 4.7 tokenizer. Every figure is date-stamped and source-attributed.",
+    "referenceBasket": {
+      "tasksPerMonth": 300,
+      "avgInputTokens": 850,
+      "avgOutputTokens": 600
+    },
+    "fields": [
+      "tool",
+      "list_price_usd_per_month",
+      "tokenizer_inflation_factor",
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jan_2026",
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jun_2026",
+      "change",
+      "sources",
+      "verified_date"
+    ]
+  },
+  "data": [
+    {
+      "tool": "Claude Pro",
+      "list_price_usd_per_month": 20,
+      "tokenizer_inflation_factor": "1.0-1.35x",
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jan_2026": 0.067,
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jun_2026": 0.085,
+      "change": "+27% max (12-27% cost impact; +32-47% more tokens)",
+      "sources": [
+        "OpenRouter",
+        "FindSkill",
+        "TokenMix"
+      ],
+      "verified_date": "2026-06-10"
+    },
+    {
+      "tool": "ChatGPT Plus",
+      "list_price_usd_per_month": 20,
+      "tokenizer_inflation_factor": "1.0x",
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jan_2026": 0.061,
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jun_2026": 0.066,
+      "change": "+8% (tier-value; free tier ad-degraded Feb 2026)",
+      "sources": [
+        "FindSkill",
+        "Fritz.ai",
+        "CloudZero"
+      ],
+      "verified_date": "2026-06-10"
+    },
+    {
+      "tool": "ChatGPT Pro",
+      "list_price_usd_per_month": 100,
+      "tokenizer_inflation_factor": "1.0x",
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jan_2026": null,
+      "effective_dollars_per_task_jun_2026": 0.04,
+      "change": "new tier Apr 2026",
+      "sources": [
+        "BuildFastWithAI"
+      ],
+      "verified_date": "2026-06-10"
+    }
+  ],
+  "keyFindings": [
+    "Claude Pro's effective cost per task rose approximately 20-27% in 2026 with no list-price change, driven by Opus 4.7 tokenizer inflation (April 2026): the same prompt now generates 12-47% more tokens.",
+    "ChatGPT Plus list price held at $20/mo but effective value eroded ~8% via Feb 2026 free-tier ad-degradation and GPT-5.5 being gated to the $100+ Pro tiers.",
+    "The list price is a fiction; the effective price is the number a user feels in their usage cap."
+  ]
+}