cell_significance: per-cell best-combo gain verdicts (provisional)

cell_significance/cell_best_gain.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "schema_version": "cell-best-gain-v1",
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-13T05:07:44.041090+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-10-12T19:57:15.992646+00:00",
   "methodology_doc": "docs/cell-performance.md",
   "axis": "accuracy",
   "alpha": 0.05,
@@ -89,6 +89,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 43,
       "n": 124
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
+      "benchmark": "gsm8k",
+      "method": "mice",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 331,
+      "n": 1000
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
       "benchmark": "hellaswag",
@@ -208,6 +215,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 4,
       "n": 127
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct",
+      "benchmark": "hellaswag",
+      "method": "eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 35,
+      "n": 1000
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct",
       "benchmark": "hellaswag",
@@ -458,13 +472,13 @@
     "n_cells": 64,
     "by_verdict": {
       "near-random-baseline": 3,
-      "underpowered": 21,
+      "underpowered": 20,
       "real-gain": 4,
       "winners-curse": 23,
       "unscored": 8,
-      "real-gain-material": 5
+      "real-gain-material": 6
     },
-    "tick_real_gains_fdr": 8,
+    "tick_real_gains_fdr": 9,
     "pending_selectadj": 0
   },
   "cells": [
@@ -602,7 +616,7 @@
         7.866666666666666
       ],
       "p": 0.001192497220522465,
-      "q": 0.0053662374923510925,
+      "q": 0.004599632136300936,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -740,7 +754,7 @@
         7.333333333333333
       ],
       "p": 0.004481251675252524,
-      "q": 0.017284827890259737,
+      "q": 0.01512422440397727,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -869,20 +883,21 @@
       "axis": "accuracy",
       "candidate_k": 18,
       "baseline_accuracy": 0.731,
-      "best_method": "dola+end",
+      "best_method": "pless",
       "best_method_empirical_argmax": null,
-      "tier": 2,
-      "effect_pp": 10.8,
+      "tier": 1,
+      "effect_pp": 8.933333333333334,
       "effect_ci_pp": [
-        6.0,
-        15.6
+        6.800000000000001,
+        11.066666666666666
       ],
-      "p": 0.6664333566643336,
-      "q": 0.9874781752593971,
+      "p": 1.3742686052727396e-17,
+      "q": 3.710525234236397e-16,
       "fold_consistent": null,
-      "verdict": "underpowered",
+      "verdict": "real-gain-material",
+      "n_held_out": 750,
       "n_select": null,
-      "tick": false,
+      "tick": true,
       "pending_marker": false
     },
     {
@@ -975,7 +990,7 @@
         14.266666666666666
       ],
       "p": 2.5014176818330526e-08,
-      "q": 1.6884569352373106e-07,
+      "q": 1.3507655481898484e-07,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain-material",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -1074,7 +1089,7 @@
         5.9259259259259265
       ],
       "p": 0.006517764631278962,
-      "q": 0.021997455630566497,
+      "q": 0.019553293893836886,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain",
       "n_held_out": 810,
@@ -1162,17 +1177,17 @@
       "temperature": "1.0",
       "axis": "accuracy",
       "candidate_k": 13,
-      "baseline_accuracy": 0.601,
+      "baseline_accuracy": 0.616,
       "best_method": "end+pless",
       "best_method_empirical_argmax": null,
       "tier": 1,
-      "effect_pp": 9.866666666666667,
+      "effect_pp": 9.333333333333334,
       "effect_ci_pp": [
-        6.93,
-        12.933333333333334
+        6.266666666666667,
+        12.4
       ],
-      "p": 9.319307580879302e-11,
-      "q": 2.2764772034799277e-09,
+      "p": 3.8418266479836655e-10,
+      "q": 3.457643983185299e-09,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain-material",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -1358,7 +1373,7 @@
         15.066666666666666
       ],
       "p": 1.732287384861425e-08,
-      "q": 1.5590586463752824e-07,
+      "q": 1.1692939847814618e-07,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain-material",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -1553,7 +1568,7 @@
         2.403333333333315
       ],
       "p": 0.3367836351899314,
-      "q": 0.9874781752593971,
+      "q": 0.9093158150128147,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "winners-curse",
       "n_held_out": 750,
@@ -1932,7 +1947,7 @@
         8.799999999999999
       ],
       "p": 0.00012535822987511428,
-      "q": 0.000676934441325617,
+      "q": 0.0005641120344380143,
       "fold_consistent": null,
       "verdict": "real-gain-material",
       "n_held_out": 750,