cell_significance: per-cell best-combo gain verdicts (provisional)

cell_significance/cell_best_gain.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "schema_version": "cell-best-gain-v1",
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-09T23:00:53.879128+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-08-11T22:33:31.663647+00:00",
   "methodology_doc": "docs/cell-performance.md",
   "axis": "accuracy",
   "alpha": 0.05,
@@ -47,6 +47,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 5,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
+      "benchmark": "bbh",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 12,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
       "benchmark": "bbh",
@@ -61,6 +68,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 12,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
+      "benchmark": "gsm8k",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 84,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
       "benchmark": "gsm8k",
@@ -89,6 +103,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 16,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
+      "benchmark": "mmlu",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 4,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
       "benchmark": "mmlu",
@@ -103,6 +124,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 4,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
+      "benchmark": "scienceqa",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 62,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Llama-2-7b-chat-hf",
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
@@ -152,6 +180,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 15,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct",
+      "benchmark": "bbh",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 10,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct",
       "benchmark": "bbh",
@@ -236,6 +271,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 10,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
+      "benchmark": "arc_challenge",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 12,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
       "benchmark": "arc_challenge",
@@ -250,6 +292,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 12,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
+      "benchmark": "bbh",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 2,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
       "benchmark": "bbh",
@@ -306,6 +355,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 3,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
+      "benchmark": "scienceqa",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 79,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2",
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
@@ -341,6 +397,13 @@
       "t0_response_diffs": 25,
       "n": 250
     },
+    {
+      "model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
+      "benchmark": "bbh",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 13,
+      "n": 250
+    },
     {
       "model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
       "benchmark": "bbh",
@@ -386,16 +449,16 @@
     {
       "model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
-      "method": "eagle",
+      "method": "clap+eagle",
       "t0_response_diffs": 112,
       "n": 250
     },
     {
       "model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
-      "method": "mice",
-      "t0_response_diffs": 467,
-      "n": 1000
+      "method": "eagle",
+      "t0_response_diffs": 112,
+      "n": 250
     },
     {
       "model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
@@ -423,11 +486,13 @@
     "n_cells": 64,
     "by_verdict": {
       "near-random-baseline": 3,
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-      "winners-curse": 26,
-      "unscored": 8
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+      "real-gain": 4,
+      "unscored": 8,
+      "real-gain-material": 5
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-    "tick_real_gains_fdr": 0,
+    "tick_real_gains_fdr": 8,
     "pending_selectadj": 0
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   "cells": [
@@ -461,16 +526,17 @@
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@@ -481,7 +547,7 @@
       "benchmark": "bbh",
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@@ -491,7 +557,7 @@
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@@ -505,7 +571,7 @@
       "benchmark": "bbh",
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@@ -515,8 +581,8 @@
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@@ -529,20 +595,20 @@
       "benchmark": "gsm8k",
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       "axis": "accuracy",
-      "candidate_k": 5,
+      "candidate_k": 12,
       "baseline_accuracy": 0.226,
-      "best_method": "dlr",
+      "best_method": "dlr+dola",
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@@ -553,22 +619,23 @@
       "benchmark": "gsm8k",
       "temperature": "1.0",
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       "baseline_accuracy": 0.175,
       "best_method": "dlr+pless",
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     {
@@ -617,20 +684,20 @@
       "benchmark": "mmlu",
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@@ -641,18 +708,18 @@
       "benchmark": "mmlu",
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@@ -665,20 +732,21 @@
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
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       "baseline_accuracy": 0.59,
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@@ -689,22 +757,23 @@
       "benchmark": "scienceqa",
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     {
@@ -713,7 +782,7 @@
       "benchmark": "triviaqa",
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@@ -737,20 +806,21 @@
       "benchmark": "triviaqa",
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@@ -801,21 +871,21 @@
       "benchmark": "arc_challenge",
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@@ -825,18 +895,18 @@
       "benchmark": "arc_challenge",
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@@ -849,7 +919,7 @@
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@@ -873,7 +943,7 @@
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@@ -883,8 +953,8 @@
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@@ -897,20 +967,21 @@
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@@ -921,22 +992,23 @@
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     {
@@ -945,7 +1017,7 @@
       "benchmark": "hellaswag",
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@@ -969,22 +1041,23 @@
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@@ -993,20 +1066,21 @@
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@@ -1017,22 +1091,23 @@
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       "n_select": null,
@@ -1841,20 +1924,21 @@
       "benchmark": "triviaqa",
       "temperature": "0.0",
       "axis": "accuracy",
-      "candidate_k": 5,
+      "candidate_k": 10,
       "baseline_accuracy": 0.527,
       "best_method": "end",
       "best_method_empirical_argmax": null,
-      "tier": 2,
-      "effect_pp": 4.0,
+      "tier": 1,
+      "effect_pp": 3.4666666666666663,
       "effect_ci_pp": [
-        -0.8,
-        8.799999999999999
+        0.9333333333333335,
+        6.133333333333333
       ],
-      "p": 0.4326567343265673,
-      "q": 1.0,
+      "p": 0.015749291149127435,
+      "q": 0.4094815698773133,
       "fold_consistent": null,
-      "verdict": "underpowered",
+      "verdict": "real-gain",
+      "n_held_out": 750,
       "n_select": null,
       "tick": false,
       "pending_marker": false
@@ -1865,22 +1949,23 @@
       "benchmark": "triviaqa",
       "temperature": "1.0",
       "axis": "accuracy",
-      "candidate_k": 7,
+      "candidate_k": 12,
       "baseline_accuracy": 0.485,
-      "best_method": "end+pless+eagle",
+      "best_method": "end+pless",
       "best_method_empirical_argmax": null,
-      "tier": 2,
-      "effect_pp": 6.800000000000001,
+      "tier": 1,
+      "effect_pp": 5.866666666666666,
       "effect_ci_pp": [
-        1.6,
-        12.4
+        3.0666666666666664,
+        8.799999999999999
       ],
-      "p": 0.5683431656834317,
-      "q": 0.8052194780521948,
+      "p": 0.00012535822987511428,
+      "q": 0.000676934441325617,
       "fold_consistent": null,
-      "verdict": "underpowered",
+      "verdict": "real-gain-material",
+      "n_held_out": 750,
       "n_select": null,
-      "tick": false,
+      "tick": true,
       "pending_marker": false
     },
     {
@@ -1923,5 +2008,7 @@
       "tick": false,
       "pending_marker": false
     }
-  ]
+  ],
+  "provisional": true,
+  "provisional_reason": "n=1000 combo regeneration incomplete; most cells are underpowered and only large held-out effects confirm."
 }