eulogik/nanoforecast-v06-dart-hc

NanoForecast v0.6-HC — DART-Norm + High-Cardinality Ablation

Experimental checkpoint — DART-Norm (causal mean/std normalization) + HC channel expansion (8 channels for electricity/traffic) + 2x upweighting. Single-session training (100 epochs, ~10h on Colab T4).

Ablation Results

Dataset	v0.5 MASE	v0.6-HC MASE	Change
ETTh1	0.681	0.834	+23% worse
ETTh2	1.110	0.760	-31% better
ETTm1	0.287	1.192	+315% worse
exchange_rate	4.317	14.058	+226% worse
electricity	2.029	0.421	-79% better
traffic	1.805	2.779	+54% worse
Overall	1.704	3.341	+96% worse

Key Findings

• Electricity win is real: 0.421 MASE (79% improvement) — beats TimesFM's 0.923
• ETTh2 improved: 0.760 MASE (31% improvement)
• But exchange_rate/ETTm1 collapsed: DART-Norm too aggressive for some datasets
• Released v0.5 remains official — adoption gate failed (traffic worsened)

Training Details

Parameter	Value
USE_DART_NORM	True
HC_MAX_CHANNELS	8
HC_UPWEIGHT	2x
Epochs	100
Best epoch	6
Wall time	~10h (Colab T4)
Loss	MultiTaskLoss

Next Steps

Ablation notebooks available:

• colab_training_v06_dart_only.ipynb — DART-Norm only (no HC)
• colab_training_v06_hc_only.ipynb — HC upweighting only (no DART)

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