{ "objective": -0.44946179013506016, "paired_flip": { "pairs": 80, "flip_rate": 0.95, "both_correct_rate": 0.95, "invariant_pairs": 32, "invariance_rate": 1.0, "invariant_both_correct_rate": 0.9375 }, "unknowable": null, "clean": { "n": 1264, "nll": 0.6168926722690661, "acc": 0.872626582278481, "ece": 0.08624432523402295, "brier": 0.20582430898522214, "mean_conf": 0.9579030816260836, "confident_error_rate": 0.06724683544303797, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8734177215189873, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9230072463768116, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.807753164556962, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.012658227848101266, "aurc": 0.03488689793265612, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0769927536231884, "confidence_bias": 0.08527649934760262, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 1104, "errors": 85, "error_rate": 0.0769927536231884 }, "0.95": { "n": 1060, "errors": 68, "error_rate": 0.06415094339622641 }, "0.99": { "n": 970, "errors": 35, "error_rate": 0.03608247422680412 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9857594936708861, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999853520719274 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8006329113924051, "accuracy": 0.9515810276679841, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9756593913753835 } }, "score_mae": 0.42582366131690075, "ranked_probability_score": 0.07949507614242349 }, "tasks": { "agnews": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.088087841683712, "acc": 0.8625, "ece": 0.14149794590514259, "brier": 0.268037735349122, "mean_conf": 0.9830186623522476, "confident_error_rate": 0.1125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.95, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.881578947368421, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.5625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.475, "aurc": 0.040719994570916664, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.11842105263157894, "confidence_bias": 0.12051866235224751, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 76, "errors": 9, "error_rate": 0.11842105263157894 }, "0.95": { "n": 75, "errors": 9, "error_rate": 0.12 }, "0.99": { "n": 73, "errors": 7, "error_rate": 0.0958904109589041 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.975, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999781047633173 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.921875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9993162733876088 } } }, "agnews_yn": { "n": 160, "nll": 0.3684986515629499, "acc": 0.925, "ece": 0.07080036453142347, "brier": 0.14191875012263128, "mean_conf": 0.9904318711658459, "confident_error_rate": 0.06875, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.98125, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9299363057324841, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.9125, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.5125, "aurc": 0.015426883965016677, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.07006369426751592, "confidence_bias": 0.06543187116584581, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 157, "errors": 11, "error_rate": 0.07006369426751592 }, "0.95": { "n": 149, "errors": 9, "error_rate": 0.06040268456375839 }, "0.99": { "n": 138, "errors": 5, "error_rate": 0.036231884057971016 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999283159732779 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.9765625, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9980463005644982 } } }, "amazon": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.176018556239162, "acc": 0.6125, "ece": 0.18137689608782254, "brier": 0.4977355567070353, "mean_conf": 0.7938768960878225, "confident_error_rate": 0.0625, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.425, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8529411764705882, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.25, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.2125, "aurc": 0.1690225243329798, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.14705882352941177, "confidence_bias": 0.18137689608782248, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 34, "errors": 5, "error_rate": 0.14705882352941177 }, "0.95": { "n": 27, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.1111111111111111 }, "0.99": { "n": 15, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.825, "confidence_cutoff": 0.8506096822990515 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.71875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.5751792299676172 } }, "score_mae": 0.44938028819980486, "ranked_probability_score": 0.07977985685011632 }, "banking77": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.4635284533347269, "acc": 0.9125, "ece": 0.06510758088814228, "brier": 0.15688024282767815, "mean_conf": 0.9528486541244575, "confident_error_rate": 0.05, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.85, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9411764705882353, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8375, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.5375, "aurc": 0.019995786215425037, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.058823529411764705, "confidence_bias": 0.04034865412445754, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 68, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.058823529411764705 }, "0.95": { "n": 67, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04477611940298507 }, "0.99": { "n": 57, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.03508771929824561 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999568082541851 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.953125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9657829895649422 } } }, "boolq": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.5519322868596024, "acc": 0.9125, "ece": 0.0865069251642396, "brier": 0.1559152293261062, "mean_conf": 0.9810412667154444, "confident_error_rate": 0.075, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.95, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9210526315789473, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.75, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.35, "aurc": 0.0338245365853573, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.07894736842105263, "confidence_bias": 0.06854126671544447, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 76, "errors": 6, "error_rate": 0.07894736842105263 }, "0.95": { "n": 74, "errors": 5, "error_rate": 0.06756756756756757 }, "0.99": { "n": 71, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.056338028169014086 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.975, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999555161966023 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.9375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9969850660718333 } } }, "composition_atom": { "n": 16, "nll": 5.587525980704396e-07, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 5.58752369261839e-07, "brier": 1.0589627199968719e-12, "mean_conf": 0.9999994412476307, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -5.58752369261839e-07, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999997385055852 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999989170810404 } } }, "composition_conditional": { "n": 16, "nll": 0.5862268029006099, "acc": 0.8125, "ece": 0.17657065265426275, "brier": 0.34248733847315155, "mean_conf": 0.9890706526542627, "confident_error_rate": 0.1875, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8125, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8125, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.8125, "aurc": 0.028385416666666666, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.1875, "confidence_bias": 0.17657065265426275, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.1875 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.1875 }, "0.99": { "n": 12, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999546055940167 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9595710587789154 } } }, "composition_conjunction": { "n": 16, "nll": 0.0014957885933607818, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 0.0014898847851706476, "brier": 2.3490712686390572e-05, "mean_conf": 0.9985101152148294, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -0.0014898847851706476, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999950008268189 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999490590400107 } } }, "composition_disjunction": { "n": 16, "nll": 0.12174322044047148, "acc": 0.9375, "ece": 0.05359792559000376, "brier": 0.09189231131503667, "mean_conf": 0.9910773458368907, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9375, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.9375, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.9375, "aurc": 0.00390625, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": 0.053577345836890666, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 15, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 15, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 15, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999988091175268 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.999961085481334 } } }, "composition_exception": { "n": 16, "nll": 2.455481704878314e-06, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 2.4554759838757434e-06, "brier": 2.3014830474470046e-11, "mean_conf": 0.9999975445240161, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -2.4554759838757434e-06, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999989408444062 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999950638491678 } } }, "composition_negation": { "n": 16, "nll": 2.3543106879567546e-06, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 2.3542971585577277e-06, "brier": 5.334216154583253e-11, "mean_conf": 0.9999976457028414, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -2.3542971585577277e-06, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.999999645056845 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999988154752283 } } }, "composition_nested_and": { "n": 16, "nll": 0.77960504564072, "acc": 0.8125, "ece": 0.1837522072127682, "brier": 0.36330684634954047, "mean_conf": 0.9962522072127682, "confident_error_rate": 0.1875, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8125, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8125, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.8125, "aurc": 0.028385416666666666, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.1875, "confidence_bias": 0.1837522072127682, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.1875 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.1875 }, "0.99": { "n": 12, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5625, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.99996807236974 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9875134522207604 } } }, "composition_nested_or": { "n": 16, "nll": 1.093226828449568e-05, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 1.0932081188075315e-05, "brier": 7.487674731318452e-10, "mean_conf": 0.9999890679188119, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -1.0932081188075315e-05, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 16, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999969424662678 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999925980083295 } } }, "contrastive_age_eligibility": { "n": 24, "nll": 5.006770668290524e-07, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 5.006768900583936e-07, "brier": 9.244256634768012e-13, "mean_conf": 0.9999994993231099, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -5.006768900583936e-07, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999996360830347 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8333333333333334, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999994255795048 } } }, "contrastive_quantity_limit": { "n": 24, "nll": 1.3929967331016708e-05, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 1.3928931700823988e-05, "brier": 4.132248138653341e-09, "mean_conf": 0.9999860710682992, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -1.3928931700823988e-05, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.999999877529739 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8333333333333334, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999994545316442 } } }, "contrastive_return_window": { "n": 24, "nll": 0.31056791234726155, "acc": 0.9583333333333334, "ece": 0.0640438652373011, "brier": 0.09770288155198424, "mean_conf": 0.9732028167534837, "confident_error_rate": 0.041666666666666664, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9166666666666666, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9545454545454546, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.5833333333333334, "aurc": 0.021849827132965845, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.045454545454545456, "confidence_bias": 0.014869483420150376, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 22, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.045454545454545456 }, "0.95": { "n": 22, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.045454545454545456 }, "0.99": { "n": 20, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.05 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999100215405365 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8333333333333334, "accuracy": 0.95, "confidence_cutoff": 0.990736211417129 } } }, "contrastive_spend_threshold": { "n": 24, "nll": 3.735462479764618e-08, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 3.7354620174845365e-08, "brier": 2.3881922218447637e-15, "mean_conf": 0.9999999626453798, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -3.7354620174845365e-08, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999653479973 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8333333333333334, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999556227255 } } }, "dbpedia14": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.42304812389495156, "acc": 0.975, "ece": 0.02932681717155103, "brier": 0.05385781169677199, "mean_conf": 0.9944886376890493, "confident_error_rate": 0.025, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9746835443037974, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1125, "aurc": 0.027674600083788314, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.02531645569620253, "confidence_bias": 0.019488637689049293, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 79, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.02531645569620253 }, "0.95": { "n": 79, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.02531645569620253 }, "0.99": { "n": 77, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.025974025974025976 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.975, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999934143395 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.984375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999347799529 } } }, "imdb": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.3393769807278961, "acc": 0.9625, "ece": 0.0393599985606192, "brier": 0.0752463437000028, "mean_conf": 0.9934010979791104, "confident_error_rate": 0.0375, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.975, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9615384615384616, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.3375, "aurc": 0.016063430120988282, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.038461538461538464, "confidence_bias": 0.030901097979110337, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 78, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.038461538461538464 }, "0.95": { "n": 77, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.03896103896103896 }, "0.99": { "n": 74, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.02702702702702703 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.975, "confidence_cutoff": 0.999999701806285 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.984375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999559709412794 } } }, "mnli": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.1504605172469486, "acc": 0.9125, "ece": 0.08443622134266553, "brier": 0.16791837255349212, "mean_conf": 0.9969362213426658, "confident_error_rate": 0.075, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9240506329113924, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8375, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1375, "aurc": 0.04950172008707943, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0759493670886076, "confidence_bias": 0.08443622134266582, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 79, "errors": 6, "error_rate": 0.0759493670886076 }, "0.95": { "n": 78, "errors": 6, "error_rate": 0.07692307692307693 }, "0.99": { "n": 77, "errors": 5, "error_rate": 0.06493506493506493 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.95, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999752595827 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.953125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999923938776696 } } }, "sst5": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.6075716823764101, "acc": 0.6125, "ece": 0.28824579721934074, "brier": 0.640125725434039, "mean_conf": 0.878584840967417, "confident_error_rate": 0.1875, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.5875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.6808510638297872, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.0, "aurc": 0.3136211989261356, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.3191489361702128, "confidence_bias": 0.2660848409674169, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 47, "errors": 15, "error_rate": 0.3191489361702128 }, "0.95": { "n": 38, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.2631578947368421 }, "0.99": { "n": 17, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.17647058823529413 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.75, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9438309726342528 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.640625, "confidence_cutoff": 0.7701640331718456 } }, "score_mae": 0.4506116888085069, "ranked_probability_score": 0.09071892097481096 }, "trec": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.5498752511376328, "acc": 0.95, "ece": 0.049752106930267104, "brier": 0.09947315940143245, "mean_conf": 0.9997521069302671, "confident_error_rate": 0.05, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.95, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.5875, "aurc": 0.010228250702194944, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.05, "confidence_bias": 0.049752106930267104, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 80, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.05 }, "0.95": { "n": 80, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.05 }, "0.99": { "n": 79, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.0379746835443038 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999999352563271 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.96875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999986380425966 } } }, "yelp": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.964132890901699, "acc": 0.6375, "ece": 0.20879169675234072, "brier": 0.4929403852546871, "mean_conf": 0.8310000477468991, "confident_error_rate": 0.125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.4875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.7435897435897436, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.2625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.25, "aurc": 0.19143002309963925, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.2564102564102564, "confidence_bias": 0.1935000477468991, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 39, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.2564102564102564 }, "0.95": { "n": 28, "errors": 5, "error_rate": 0.17857142857142858 }, "0.99": { "n": 19, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.75, "confidence_cutoff": 0.8965825455533782 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.71875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.6472665439576823 } }, "score_mae": 0.3774790069423904, "ranked_probability_score": 0.06798645060234317 }, "yelp_yn": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.30488218854102955, "acc": 0.8875, "ece": 0.07508091469896844, "brier": 0.17120315623001298, "mean_conf": 0.9621212064255577, "confident_error_rate": 0.0375, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9571428571428572, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.875, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.6625, "aurc": 0.015744398791700327, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.04285714285714286, "confidence_bias": 0.0746212064255577, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 70, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04285714285714286 }, "0.95": { "n": 67, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.029850746268656716 }, "0.99": { "n": 62, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.016129032258064516 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998813596426201 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.984375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9837482122145327 } } } }, "variants": { "clean": { "n": 1264, "nll": 0.6168926722690661, "acc": 0.872626582278481, "ece": 0.08624432523402295, "brier": 0.20582430898522214, "mean_conf": 0.9579030816260836, "confident_error_rate": 0.06724683544303797, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8734177215189873, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9230072463768116, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.807753164556962, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.012658227848101266, "aurc": 0.03488689793265612, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0769927536231884, "confidence_bias": 0.08527649934760262, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 1104, "errors": 85, "error_rate": 0.0769927536231884 }, "0.95": { "n": 1060, "errors": 68, "error_rate": 0.06415094339622641 }, "0.99": { "n": 970, "errors": 35, "error_rate": 0.03608247422680412 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9857594936708861, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999853520719274 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8006329113924051, "accuracy": 0.9515810276679841, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9756593913753835 } }, "score_mae": 0.42582366131690075, "ranked_probability_score": 0.07949507614242349 }, "none_absent": { "n": 60, "nll": 0.5750708488188147, "acc": 0.8833333333333333, "ece": 0.09672233307148694, "brier": 0.1946567603170117, "mean_conf": 0.9636866873975226, "confident_error_rate": 0.05, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9444444444444444, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.7333333333333333, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.2, "aurc": 0.04686992361578679, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.05555555555555555, "confidence_bias": 0.08035335406418931, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 54, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.05555555555555555 }, "0.95": { "n": 54, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.05555555555555555 }, "0.99": { "n": 47, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.06382978723404255 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9666666666666667, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998527746924852 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.9375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9877892246847566 } } }, "none_present": { "n": 60, "nll": 0.7256526534658846, "acc": 0.9166666666666666, "ece": 0.07485845385044373, "brier": 0.13614155592450627, "mean_conf": 0.9703975852828999, "confident_error_rate": 0.05, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9166666666666666, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9454545454545454, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.75, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.05, "aurc": 0.05872786035794387, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.05454545454545454, "confidence_bias": 0.05373091861623325, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 55, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.05454545454545454 }, "0.95": { "n": 53, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.05660377358490566 }, "0.99": { "n": 49, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.061224489795918366 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9666666666666667, "confidence_cutoff": 0.999700409676498 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.9375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9939915175771098 } } }, "permuted": { "n": 84, "nll": 0.44617124681813825, "acc": 0.9523809523809523, "ece": 0.04257200563999509, "brier": 0.08180703209551511, "mean_conf": 0.9869312935684673, "confident_error_rate": 0.023809523809523808, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9523809523809523, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.975, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.05952380952380952, "aurc": 0.03935129081916679, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.025, "confidence_bias": 0.03455034118751499, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 80, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.025 }, "0.95": { "n": 79, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.02531645569620253 }, "0.99": { "n": 77, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.025974025974025976 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9761904761904762, "confidence_cutoff": 0.99999704787547 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8095238095238095, "accuracy": 0.9705882352941176, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9993851721771361 } } } }, "heldout_tasks": {}, "permutation": { "n": 60, "mean_max_delta": 0.024041959134575408, "flip_rate": 0.016666666666666666 }, "temperature": 2.732080513508791, "calibrated_clean": { "n": 1264, "nll": 0.3515788273092323, "acc": 0.872626582278481, "ece": 0.02305460667741268, "brier": 0.1813435470997088, "mean_conf": 0.8871547347082455, "confident_error_rate": 0.021360759493670885, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.7001582278481012, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9694915254237289, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.7990506329113924, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.011867088607594937, "aurc": 0.03507879287066272, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.030508474576271188, "confidence_bias": 0.014528152429764463, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 885, "errors": 27, "error_rate": 0.030508474576271188 }, "0.95": { "n": 786, "errors": 20, "error_rate": 0.02544529262086514 }, "0.99": { "n": 476, "errors": 6, "error_rate": 0.012605042016806723 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9873417721518988, "confidence_cutoff": 0.978302275330191 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8006329113924051, "accuracy": 0.9496047430830039, "confidence_cutoff": 0.7611815169166877 } }, "score_mae": 0.4720223859631723, "ranked_probability_score": 0.07130551407018675 }, "metric_policy": { "version": 2, "selective_ties": "whole_confidence_groups", "coverage_at_error": "in-sample maximum over confidence thresholds; not a deployed error guarantee", "aurc": "right-step integral over whole confidence groups", "confident_error_rate": "high-confidence errors divided by all questions", "error_rate_at_0_9": "errors divided by questions accepted at p_max >= 0.9", "nll": "exact from logits when recorded; otherwise from floored probabilities", "nll_floor": 1e-09, "renormalize_returned_probabilities": true, "raw_sums_outside_1e_5": 0, "returned_zeros": 0 }, "coverage": { "requested_records": 1204, "requested_questions": 1468, "evaluated_records": 1204, "evaluated_questions": 1468, "rejected_records": 0, "truncated_records": 0 }, "latency_ms": { "median": 49.6572095000829, "p95": 136.3470733003851 }, "calibration": { "inference_temperature": 1.0, "additional_temperature": 2.732080513508791, "logits_recorded": true }, "transfer": { "objective": -0.7354206605171923, "paired_flip": { "pairs": 64, "flip_rate": 0.8125, "both_correct_rate": 0.78125, "invariant_pairs": 24, "invariance_rate": 1.0, "invariant_both_correct_rate": 0.9166666666666666 }, "unknowable": null, "clean": { "n": 656, "nll": 0.8420064323719835, "acc": 0.801829268292683, "ece": 0.14524044074533254, "brier": 0.3265035782727766, "mean_conf": 0.9442720446627839, "confident_error_rate": 0.10060975609756098, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8277439024390244, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8784530386740331, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.5259146341463414, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.27439024390243905, "aurc": 0.059246832389346436, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.12154696132596685, "confidence_bias": 0.14244277637010094, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 543, "errors": 66, "error_rate": 0.12154696132596685 }, "0.95": { "n": 509, "errors": 51, "error_rate": 0.10019646365422397 }, "0.99": { "n": 444, "errors": 34, "error_rate": 0.07657657657657657 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9573170731707317, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9997165252969916 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8003048780487805, "accuracy": 0.8914285714285715, "confidence_cutoff": 0.926982780530237 } }, "score_mae": 0.3868049169616327, "ranked_probability_score": 0.1808253510701079 }, "tasks": { "composition_held_and_or": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.21275731832987918, "acc": 0.90625, "ece": 0.08960640747049482, "brier": 0.14806787785708828, "mean_conf": 0.968119000247354, "confident_error_rate": 0.03125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.84375, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9629629629629629, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.84375, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.8125, "aurc": 0.016607299648786718, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.037037037037037035, "confidence_bias": 0.06186900024735398, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 27, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.037037037037037035 }, "0.95": { "n": 26, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 26, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999867426553156 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9997005752724791 } } }, "composition_held_conditional": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.014373469714188625, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 0.01341902983845485, "brier": 0.003340072727106961, "mean_conf": 0.9865809701615452, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.96875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -0.013419029838454777, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 31, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 30, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 25, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.997536508908986 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.84375, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9860660764373641 } } }, "composition_held_or_not": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.39586312721931666, "acc": 0.875, "ece": 0.09422189894535778, "brier": 0.1800316303783951, "mean_conf": 0.969221898945358, "confident_error_rate": 0.03125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9642857142857143, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.90625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.53125, "aurc": 0.026035965425144192, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.03571428571428571, "confidence_bias": 0.09422189894535804, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 28, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.03571428571428571 }, "0.95": { "n": 27, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.037037037037037035 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.041666666666666664 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998200130139856 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.84375, "accuracy": 0.9629629629629629, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9864744883957841 } } }, "contrastive_authorization": { "n": 40, "nll": 2.626769435101001e-06, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 2.6267639215982186e-06, "brier": 2.200791979309494e-11, "mean_conf": 0.9999973732360784, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -2.6267639215982186e-06, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999982121058788 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999951777711299 } } }, "contrastive_deadline": { "n": 40, "nll": 1.6227537153922078, "acc": 0.6, "ece": 0.3704952209007848, "brier": 0.721418824936752, "mean_conf": 0.9704952209007848, "confident_error_rate": 0.325, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.6388888888888888, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.575, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.45, "aurc": 0.12570899891487713, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.3611111111111111, "confidence_bias": 0.3704952209007848, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 36, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.3611111111111111 }, "0.95": { "n": 33, "errors": 11, "error_rate": 0.3333333333333333 }, "0.99": { "n": 26, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.15384615384615385 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.95, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998875216084744 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.6875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9653250745881129 } }, "score_mae": 0.3868049169616327, "ranked_probability_score": 0.1808253510701079 }, "emotion": { "n": 80, "nll": 2.01845007225599, "acc": 0.5875, "ece": 0.3034439572619928, "brier": 0.659342484681167, "mean_conf": 0.8816687443113388, "confident_error_rate": 0.1625, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.6125, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.7346938775510204, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.025, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.025, "aurc": 0.2725565889995515, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.2653061224489796, "confidence_bias": 0.29416874431133877, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 49, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.2653061224489796 }, "0.95": { "n": 43, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.23255813953488372 }, "0.99": { "n": 30, "errors": 8, "error_rate": 0.26666666666666666 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.775, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9654279207142605 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.625, "confidence_cutoff": 0.7552159935350502 } } }, "mmlu": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.0623469179109404, "acc": 0.7375, "ece": 0.17148582929965572, "brier": 0.4389275967782478, "mean_conf": 0.8598028670228626, "confident_error_rate": 0.0875, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.625, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.86, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.1125, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1125, "aurc": 0.1331753286671519, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.14, "confidence_bias": 0.12230286702286253, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 50, "errors": 7, "error_rate": 0.14 }, "0.95": { "n": 43, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.09302325581395349 }, "0.99": { "n": 33, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.09090909090909091 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.925, "confidence_cutoff": 0.974014602758476 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.78125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.6995644294224197 } } }, "paws": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.62106974555167, "acc": 0.725, "ece": 0.24858545944074148, "brier": 0.47996204925896696, "mean_conf": 0.9735854594407414, "confident_error_rate": 0.225, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9375, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.76, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.4, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1375, "aurc": 0.1160986678934329, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.24, "confidence_bias": 0.2485854594407414, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 75, "errors": 18, "error_rate": 0.24 }, "0.95": { "n": 70, "errors": 15, "error_rate": 0.21428571428571427 }, "0.99": { "n": 65, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.2 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999292199405727 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.8125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9935345534056593 } } }, "qnli": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.2861285544171043, "acc": 0.925, "ece": 0.06519801763745295, "brier": 0.13858164311006516, "mean_conf": 0.9633829066567101, "confident_error_rate": 0.0375, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9577464788732394, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8875, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.575, "aurc": 0.013965998776904765, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.04225352112676056, "confidence_bias": 0.03838290665671007, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 71, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04225352112676056 }, "0.95": { "n": 70, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04285714285714286 }, "0.99": { "n": 64, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.015625 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999454840710632 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.984375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9905160244738724 } } }, "sciq": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.05712256491977856, "acc": 0.9625, "ece": 0.024095647099121015, "brier": 0.04132271841446281, "mean_conf": 0.9815817586969505, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.95, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.95, "aurc": 0.0012680561790530144, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": 0.0190817586969505, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 76, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 74, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 72, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999996614790427 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998869569876149 } } }, "tweet_offensive": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.7987591532086051, "acc": 0.725, "ece": 0.2208875858819574, "brier": 0.42590760472944245, "mean_conf": 0.9281939852960915, "confident_error_rate": 0.125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.75, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8333333333333334, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.3625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.15, "aurc": 0.10808477691679863, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.16666666666666666, "confidence_bias": 0.20319398529609156, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 60, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.16666666666666666 }, "0.95": { "n": 53, "errors": 7, "error_rate": 0.1320754716981132 }, "0.99": { "n": 39, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.10256410256410256 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9898656520526313 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.828125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.8874677287419479 } } } }, "variants": { "clean": { "n": 656, "nll": 0.8420064323719835, "acc": 0.801829268292683, "ece": 0.14524044074533254, "brier": 0.3265035782727766, "mean_conf": 0.9442720446627839, "confident_error_rate": 0.10060975609756098, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8277439024390244, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8784530386740331, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.5259146341463414, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.27439024390243905, "aurc": 0.059246832389346436, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.12154696132596685, "confidence_bias": 0.14244277637010094, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 543, "errors": 66, "error_rate": 0.12154696132596685 }, "0.95": { "n": 509, "errors": 51, "error_rate": 0.10019646365422397 }, "0.99": { "n": 444, "errors": 34, "error_rate": 0.07657657657657657 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9573170731707317, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9997165252969916 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8003048780487805, "accuracy": 0.8914285714285715, "confidence_cutoff": 0.926982780530237 } }, "score_mae": 0.3868049169616327, "ranked_probability_score": 0.1808253510701079 }, "none_absent": { "n": 36, "nll": 0.6045433705207882, "acc": 0.8333333333333334, "ece": 0.13280966055516136, "brier": 0.2692087471452192, "mean_conf": 0.9302829455612941, "confident_error_rate": 0.08333333333333333, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8055555555555556, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.896551724137931, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.25, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.25, "aurc": 0.0709278531457756, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.10344827586206896, "confidence_bias": 0.09694961222796072, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 29, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.10344827586206896 }, "0.95": { "n": 25, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.08 }, "0.99": { "n": 17, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.058823529411764705 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9444444444444444, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9867735272600054 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8055555555555556, "accuracy": 0.896551724137931, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9021773367725505 } } }, "none_present": { "n": 36, "nll": 1.8636645679022996, "acc": 0.6111111111111112, "ece": 0.2968259055464007, "brier": 0.6471666151139533, "mean_conf": 0.9079370166575118, "confident_error_rate": 0.2222222222222222, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.6944444444444444, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.68, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.3055555555555556, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.3055555555555556, "aurc": 0.1675614581367646, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.32, "confidence_bias": 0.29682590554640065, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 25, "errors": 8, "error_rate": 0.32 }, "0.95": { "n": 23, "errors": 6, "error_rate": 0.2608695652173913 }, "0.99": { "n": 19, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.15789473684210525 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.8888888888888888, "confidence_cutoff": 0.996923503041837 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8055555555555556, "accuracy": 0.6551724137931034, "confidence_cutoff": 0.7998003295333731 } } }, "permuted": { "n": 36, "nll": 0.9001924115234267, "acc": 0.7777777777777778, "ece": 0.16577047477357917, "brier": 0.362691945174966, "mean_conf": 0.9435482525513572, "confident_error_rate": 0.05555555555555555, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.7222222222222222, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9230769230769231, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.6944444444444444, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.4444444444444444, "aurc": 0.06003225907915171, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.07692307692307693, "confidence_bias": 0.16577047477357942, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 26, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.07692307692307693 }, "0.95": { "n": 26, "errors": 2, "error_rate": 0.07692307692307693 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.041666666666666664 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9444444444444444, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9994163361463438 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8055555555555556, "accuracy": 0.8620689655172413, "confidence_cutoff": 0.8723240949648822 } } } }, "heldout_tasks": { "composition_held_and_or": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.21275731832987918, "acc": 0.90625, "ece": 0.08960640747049482, "brier": 0.14806787785708828, "mean_conf": 0.968119000247354, "confident_error_rate": 0.03125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.84375, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9629629629629629, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.84375, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.8125, "aurc": 0.016607299648786718, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.037037037037037035, "confidence_bias": 0.06186900024735398, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 27, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.037037037037037035 }, "0.95": { "n": 26, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 26, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999867426553156 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8125, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9997005752724791 } } }, "composition_held_conditional": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.014373469714188625, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 0.01341902983845485, "brier": 0.003340072727106961, "mean_conf": 0.9865809701615452, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.96875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -0.013419029838454777, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 31, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 30, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 25, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.997536508908986 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.84375, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9860660764373641 } } }, "composition_held_or_not": { "n": 32, "nll": 0.39586312721931666, "acc": 0.875, "ece": 0.09422189894535778, "brier": 0.1800316303783951, "mean_conf": 0.969221898945358, "confident_error_rate": 0.03125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9642857142857143, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.90625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.53125, "aurc": 0.026035965425144192, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.03571428571428571, "confidence_bias": 0.09422189894535804, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 28, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.03571428571428571 }, "0.95": { "n": 27, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.037037037037037035 }, "0.99": { "n": 24, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.041666666666666664 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998200130139856 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.84375, "accuracy": 0.9629629629629629, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9864744883957841 } } }, "contrastive_authorization": { "n": 40, "nll": 2.626769435101001e-06, "acc": 1.0, "ece": 2.6267639215982186e-06, "brier": 2.200791979309494e-11, "mean_conf": 0.9999973732360784, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 1.0, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 1.0, "aurc": 0.0, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": -2.6267639215982186e-06, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 40, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999982121058788 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999951777711299 } } }, "contrastive_deadline": { "n": 40, "nll": 1.6227537153922078, "acc": 0.6, "ece": 0.3704952209007848, "brier": 0.721418824936752, "mean_conf": 0.9704952209007848, "confident_error_rate": 0.325, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.6388888888888888, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.575, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.45, "aurc": 0.12570899891487713, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.3611111111111111, "confidence_bias": 0.3704952209007848, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 36, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.3611111111111111 }, "0.95": { "n": 33, "errors": 11, "error_rate": 0.3333333333333333 }, "0.99": { "n": 26, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.15384615384615385 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.95, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998875216084744 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.6875, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9653250745881129 } }, "score_mae": 0.3868049169616327, "ranked_probability_score": 0.1808253510701079 }, "emotion": { "n": 80, "nll": 2.01845007225599, "acc": 0.5875, "ece": 0.3034439572619928, "brier": 0.659342484681167, "mean_conf": 0.8816687443113388, "confident_error_rate": 0.1625, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.6125, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.7346938775510204, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.025, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.025, "aurc": 0.2725565889995515, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.2653061224489796, "confidence_bias": 0.29416874431133877, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 49, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.2653061224489796 }, "0.95": { "n": 43, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.23255813953488372 }, "0.99": { "n": 30, "errors": 8, "error_rate": 0.26666666666666666 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.775, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9654279207142605 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.625, "confidence_cutoff": 0.7552159935350502 } } }, "mmlu": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.0623469179109404, "acc": 0.7375, "ece": 0.17148582929965572, "brier": 0.4389275967782478, "mean_conf": 0.8598028670228626, "confident_error_rate": 0.0875, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.625, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.86, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.1125, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1125, "aurc": 0.1331753286671519, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.14, "confidence_bias": 0.12230286702286253, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 50, "errors": 7, "error_rate": 0.14 }, "0.95": { "n": 43, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.09302325581395349 }, "0.99": { "n": 33, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.09090909090909091 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.925, "confidence_cutoff": 0.974014602758476 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.78125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.6995644294224197 } } }, "paws": { "n": 80, "nll": 1.62106974555167, "acc": 0.725, "ece": 0.24858545944074148, "brier": 0.47996204925896696, "mean_conf": 0.9735854594407414, "confident_error_rate": 0.225, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.9375, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.76, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.4, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.1375, "aurc": 0.1160986678934329, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.24, "confidence_bias": 0.2485854594407414, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 75, "errors": 18, "error_rate": 0.24 }, "0.95": { "n": 70, "errors": 15, "error_rate": 0.21428571428571427 }, "0.99": { "n": 65, "errors": 13, "error_rate": 0.2 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999292199405727 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.8125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9935345534056593 } } }, "qnli": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.2861285544171043, "acc": 0.925, "ece": 0.06519801763745295, "brier": 0.13858164311006516, "mean_conf": 0.9633829066567101, "confident_error_rate": 0.0375, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.8875, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9577464788732394, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.8875, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.575, "aurc": 0.013965998776904765, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.04225352112676056, "confidence_bias": 0.03838290665671007, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 71, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04225352112676056 }, "0.95": { "n": 70, "errors": 3, "error_rate": 0.04285714285714286 }, "0.99": { "n": 64, "errors": 1, "error_rate": 0.015625 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999454840710632 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.984375, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9905160244738724 } } }, "sciq": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.05712256491977856, "acc": 0.9625, "ece": 0.024095647099121015, "brier": 0.04132271841446281, "mean_conf": 0.9815817586969505, "confident_error_rate": 0.0, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.95, "accuracy_at_0_9": 1.0, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 1.0, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.95, "aurc": 0.0012680561790530144, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.0, "confidence_bias": 0.0190817586969505, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 76, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.95": { "n": 74, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 }, "0.99": { "n": 72, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9999996614790427 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 1.0, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9998869569876149 } } }, "tweet_offensive": { "n": 80, "nll": 0.7987591532086051, "acc": 0.725, "ece": 0.2208875858819574, "brier": 0.42590760472944245, "mean_conf": 0.9281939852960915, "confident_error_rate": 0.125, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.75, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.8333333333333334, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.3625, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.15, "aurc": 0.10808477691679863, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.16666666666666666, "confidence_bias": 0.20319398529609156, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 60, "errors": 10, "error_rate": 0.16666666666666666 }, "0.95": { "n": 53, "errors": 7, "error_rate": 0.1320754716981132 }, "0.99": { "n": 39, "errors": 4, "error_rate": 0.10256410256410256 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9898656520526313 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8, "accuracy": 0.828125, "confidence_cutoff": 0.8874677287419479 } } } }, "permutation": { "n": 36, "mean_max_delta": 0.04771277529822956, "flip_rate": 0.05555555555555555 }, "temperature": 2.732080513508791, "calibrated_clean": { "n": 656, "nll": 0.4734830253813679, "acc": 0.801829268292683, "ece": 0.05261345517511798, "brier": 0.26777059962010535, "mean_conf": 0.850709804046946, "confident_error_rate": 0.03048780487804878, "coverage_at_0_9": 0.5838414634146342, "accuracy_at_0_9": 0.9477806788511749, "coverage_at_5pct_error": 0.5411585365853658, "coverage_at_1pct_error": 0.3490853658536585, "aurc": 0.05769454271433421, "error_rate_at_0_9": 0.05221932114882506, "confidence_bias": 0.04888053575426299, "top_bins": { "0.9": { "n": 383, "errors": 20, "error_rate": 0.05221932114882506 }, "0.95": { "n": 325, "errors": 14, "error_rate": 0.043076923076923075 }, "0.99": { "n": 115, "errors": 0, "error_rate": 0.0 } }, "selective": { "0.5": { "coverage": 0.5, "accuracy": 0.9542682926829268, "confidence_cutoff": 0.9487693566866638 }, "0.8": { "coverage": 0.8003048780487805, "accuracy": 0.8914285714285715, "confidence_cutoff": 0.6847608977037521 } }, "score_mae": 0.36649026598278567, "ranked_probability_score": 0.1335905179824414 }, "metric_policy": { "version": 2, "selective_ties": "whole_confidence_groups", "coverage_at_error": "in-sample maximum over confidence thresholds; not a deployed error guarantee", "aurc": "right-step integral over whole confidence groups", "confident_error_rate": "high-confidence errors divided by all questions", "error_rate_at_0_9": "errors divided by questions accepted at p_max >= 0.9", "nll": "exact from logits when recorded; otherwise from floored probabilities", "nll_floor": 1e-09, "renormalize_returned_probabilities": true, "raw_sums_outside_1e_5": 0, "returned_zeros": 0 }, "coverage": { "requested_records": 764, "requested_questions": 764, "evaluated_records": 764, "evaluated_questions": 764, "rejected_records": 0, "truncated_records": 0 }, "latency_ms": { "median": 48.01533849990847, "p95": 53.9990647502691 }, "calibration": { "inference_temperature": 1.0, "additional_temperature": 2.732080513508791, "logits_recorded": true }, "suite_sha256": "31677c2256b406222e7d94ffdc0a02a70ce05746b9efe307876024c4e77291d1" }, "provenance": { "config": { "epochs": 1, "seed": 2, "lr": 2e-05, "lora": 16, "accum": 4, "batch": 2, "perm_kl": 0.0, "perm_frac": 0.3, "ord_w": 0.0, "p_none": 0.1, "p_none_distract": 0.12, "p_distract": 0.15, "p_none_pair": 0.25, "synthetic_repeat": 1, "public_frac": 1.0, "head_lr": 0.0, "weight_decay": 0.01, "anchor_w": 0.0, "label_smoothing": 0.0, "brier_w": 0.0, "focal_gamma": 0.0, "dtype": "bf16", "checkpointing": 1, "replay": 2000, "max_state": 7552, "data": "evals/documents-v1/train.jsonl", "base": "Qwen/Qwen3.5-4B-Base", "base_revision": "1001bb4d826a52d1f399e183466143f4da7b741b", "init_from": "jaredpalmer/kev-4b" }, "config_sha256": "6fb0132214a793f590cce025ce669b85433bab47a63522c369c226f0fb34ff3c", "suite_sha256": "a8f50e481b7d90b97da049e0ff6a01cee2f1ed204aed61a8265af0edbb5514d2", "source_hashes": { "kev/__init__.py": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "kev/anchors.py": "6963eafdb276db5a6c94d939eae675c761555553b8d0f963ffd803448beaabbb", "kev/api.py": "7bffacfb762c626b8bc2f670f350295af5ccb0883dbe90239c7d2f8e5ef56582", "kev/autoresearch.py": "f7d7fabb9c0df7065bee3fec4aa4bee7028c5d1565847aefe2d74e3d7d40ed8a", "kev/benchmark.py": "9c442efd8b6b852c574a646192c61ee91afa1306e3b2978bb6391ae1b91a3fa0", "kev/calibrate.py": "c1eff4744fabd349e8abca86777a7aa0cbea44904c8223d3b61fca3d43741519", "kev/checkpoint.py": "7cd4fbedfcfd11c2997490df2bd88eaa12af60e5ad60da2e5390e6df1ac1f626", "kev/compare.py": "3606dbf98bb305d66420158498cb837304d2edb8dab01cdaf2ec42964bef3435", "kev/composition.py": "f335ed17e18e0a544893db5e22b9a059e6ce1b2e14dbb863ac7d7bbf8f3e0536", "kev/contrastive.py": "cbb979aa5d40265ad0e64695f94b281d91751fa405811ddfa8212fede111edcf", "kev/data.py": "ef1be396e7218ba5c94f0f67de2ceff23a39656b57199cb3aa3192cde53e8320", "kev/device.py": "d1677fd98ec0979c7284546306e34e0d09298ca4042fc39eb2b32a74f4e975c4", "kev/evaluate.py": "999264f2837dcfbf2ec93601aa4745e701698ab850a43ad89324672a6604965c", "kev/experiment.py": "644adedf43fbd10566830fa6094e16dd001b8cad29d9b9da82f0e0f245ca06b1", "kev/jev.py": "acd4cc3f1844e438cc83a8d409c15ef78a5ef64d39ea10f583d75a6c7646b243", "kev/metrics.py": "dba8d90550999edcd642581fb4da0367bd4b39d08471815184fa732d11e137b9", "kev/mlx_model.py": "f582428796faf6bf962b772a69a6227ac3259ccbd3215c0c8b55ce28dbbd0909", "kev/model.py": "387f281bc0b72da1620a8d2fcf508996fc30b9d8e342211ecd67c6d930f9cbaa", "kev/plot.py": "0874bcff2885d8155a1cceade0de8a275a7163d3c3fd6aa0c294e8ccf5ff7e02", "kev/predictors.py": "b2a66dd9f0f0a8026bc94603383bacfdd622e75d1c935173997175606626a9b3", "kev/publish.py": "8abc9bcf4a01365697b05cf3c5ad0013462bd92d005f5616954e40ab1100c7aa", "kev/serve.py": "c210b1f4598e64b49c399f73603ed372f4314c165ceda50e1340c0466ec1c735", "kev/study_v3.py": "7891150aa623e4479c7c789d4dc4662f186132b37b7bac1e1f072b9e08ee13e3", "kev/suite.py": "d524663fe2656d873c548a6216a2ddfebaf7299650f07ba31ae24e4c453398f1", "kev/train.py": "68428ed43b3e362e52d4650dc5296ab88767061f7998a525715e1b306eeef474", "kev/transfer_v9.py": "0902409742151250a28af1fd8f42258b70fcc161f3deed3ee35fe3f473f3c763", "modal_app.py": "28318ef72dbeba7855f3c6b05339ee8c0f2e57562d21ede72352fba98d0e6ae3", "pyproject.toml": "7c17fbe9efcadda3eb488b59adf1b6db5938cd33af4d3bd389ce4359b73fcc7d", "uv.lock": "a9922dbb89acdef78299fd2b4a8c3f7f0fa1b2bc08b55595b6926fa785a9c466" }, "git_commit": "ea271bf9dd0f2a280b1ef096a7d237388484620c", "platform": "Linux-4.19.0-gvisor-x86_64-with-glibc2.36", "torch": "2.8.0+cu128", "device": "cuda", "gpu": "NVIDIA H200", "legacy_checkpoint": false, "measured_checkpoint": { "requested": "/runs/r8-small/00-trial-0/checkpoint", "resolved": "/runs/r8-small/00-trial-0/checkpoint", "head_sha256": "19fdcdfb65380b51e90458edeb7e8dd7554532f357379c4cda44152cbbcd4195", "adapter_sha256": "c2c99077b58cd4a604304b743b7db5391187ef1d58e575f90c554c744aa23d65", "inference_temperature": 1.0 } }, "mechanism_checks": { "n": 8, "packed_max_delta": 0.0, "sibling_max_delta": 0.0002613663673400879, "tolerance": 0.001, "passed": true }, "gates": { "passed": false, "checks": { "complete_coverage": true, "isolation_and_packing": true, "transfer_complete": true, "heldout_pairs_at_least_70pct": true, "transfer_confident_errors_below_10pct": false }, "policy": "Research screening only: 0.001 isolation; 5pp task regression; 70% heldout pair correctness; <=10% confident errors; no automatic release." }, "calibration_fit": { "temperature": 2.732080513508791, "aggregation": "micro", "objective": "raw-logit NLL", "split": "calibration", "rows_sha256": "7c08bad532793a9c6ab113e0ad7b9b862bdf999641cca068858d73669a2b675f", "suite_sha256": "a8f50e481b7d90b97da049e0ff6a01cee2f1ed204aed61a8265af0edbb5514d2", "n": 1148 }, "wall_seconds": 2855.117294672, "promotable": false, "test_evaluated": false, "training_resources": { "wall_seconds": 2574.7955305576324, "records_seen": 10179, "requested_records": 7219, "truncated_records": 0, "rejected_records": 0, "optimizer_steps": 903, "forward_tokens": 6749150, "peak_device_bytes": 39839947776, "device": "cuda", "dtype": "bf16", "batch": 2, "peak_rss_bytes": 31563161600 } }