""" ConformalESM-Extended: Unified Uncertainty Quantification for Protein Language Models ===================================================================================== Runs overnight on Hugging Face CPU infrastructure. Pushes results to Hub. Coverage: - Task 1: Secondary Structure (Q3: H/E/C) — 8M + 650M - Task 2: Disorder Prediction (binary) — 35M + 650M - Baselines: Entropy, Max-Margin - Methods: Temperature Scaling, Split Conformal, Class-Conditional, Mondrian, Size-Stratified, Experiment Prioritization, Cross-Model Transfer - All post-hoc, CPU-only, no retraining Auto-pushes results to knoxel/conformalesm-paper-starter """ import os import sys import json import time import numpy as np from collections import defaultdict from datasets import load_dataset from transformers import AutoTokenizer, AutoModelForTokenClassification import torch # ======================== CONFIG ======================== SEED = 42 np.random.seed(SEED) torch.manual_seed(SEED) MAX_LEN = 1022 N_CAL = 500 N_TEST = 500 # Models SS_MODEL_8M = "AmelieSchreiber/esm2_t6_8M_UR50D-finetuned-secondary-structure" SS_MODEL_650M = "gaodrew/esm2_t33_650M_UR50D-finetuned-secondary-structure" DIS_MODEL_35M = "CQSB/esm2_35M-LoRA-ID-DisProt7" DIS_MODEL_650M = "CQSB/esm2_650M-LoRA-ID-DisProt7" # Datasets SS_DATASET = "lamm-mit/protein_secondary_structure_from_PDB" DIS_DATASET = "CQSB/SoftDis" DIS_CONFIG = "id05" DIS_THRESHOLD = 0.5 # Label mappings SS_ID2LABEL = {0: "C", 1: "H", 2: "E"} SS_LABEL2ID = {"C": 0, "H": 1, "E": 2} DIS_LABEL2ID = {"Ordered": 0, "Disordered": 1} # ======================== UTILS ======================== def log(msg): print(f"[{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}] {msg}", flush=True) def dssp_to_q3(c): if c in "HGI": return "H" elif c in "EB": return "E" else: return "C" # ======================== DATA ======================== def load_ss_data(): ds = load_dataset(SS_DATASET, split="train") ds = ds.filter(lambda x: x["Sequence_length"] <= MAX_LEN - 2) ds = ds.shuffle(seed=SEED) cal = ds.select(range(min(N_CAL, len(ds)))) test = ds.select(range(min(N_CAL, len(ds)), min(N_CAL + N_TEST, len(ds)))) return cal, test def load_disorder_data(): ds = load_dataset(DIS_DATASET, DIS_CONFIG) train = ds["train"].shuffle(seed=SEED) cal = train.select(range(min(N_CAL, len(train)))) test = ds["test"].shuffle(seed=SEED) test = test.select(range(min(N_TEST, len(test)))) return cal, test # ======================== MODEL LOADING ======================== def load_model(model_id, is_650m=False): """Load model, handling LoRA adapters if needed.""" log(f"Loading model: {model_id}") if "LoRA" in model_id or "lora" in model_id.lower(): from peft import PeftModel if "650M" in model_id or "t33" in model_id: base_id = "facebook/esm2_t33_650M_UR50D" elif "35M" in model_id or "t12" in model_id: base_id = "facebook/esm2_t12_35M_UR50D" else: base_id = "facebook/esm2_t6_8M_UR50D" log(f" Base model: {base_id}") base = AutoModelForTokenClassification.from_pretrained(base_id) model = PeftModel.from_pretrained(base, model_id) else: model = AutoModelForTokenClassification.from_pretrained(model_id) tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_id) model.eval() log(f" Model loaded. Parameters: {sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters()):,}") return model, tokenizer # ======================== INFERENCE ======================== def infer_ss(model, tokenizer, dataset, batch_size=2): """Secondary structure inference. Returns list of {true, probs, preds}.""" results = [] with torch.no_grad(): for i in range(0, len(dataset), batch_size): batch = dataset[i:i + batch_size] for j in range(len(batch["Sequence_spaced"])): seq = batch["Sequence_spaced"][j].split() ss = batch["Secondary_structure"][j][:len(seq)] true = np.array([SS_LABEL2ID[dssp_to_q3(c)] for c in ss]) spaced = " ".join(seq[:MAX_LEN - 2]) inputs = tokenizer(spaced, return_tensors="pt", truncation=True, max_length=MAX_LEN) logits = model(**inputs).logits.squeeze(0) probs = torch.softmax(logits, dim=-1).numpy() # Align to residues (skip special tokens) input_ids = inputs["input_ids"].squeeze(0).tolist() aligned_probs = [] residue_idx = 0 cls_id = tokenizer.cls_token_id eos_id = tokenizer.eos_token_id pad_id = tokenizer.pad_token_id for tid in input_ids: if tid in [cls_id, eos_id, pad_id]: continue if residue_idx < len(true): aligned_probs.append(probs[residue_idx + 1]) residue_idx += 1 aligned_probs = np.array(aligned_probs) min_len = min(len(true), len(aligned_probs)) results.append({ "true": true[:min_len], "probs": aligned_probs[:min_len], "preds": np.argmax(aligned_probs[:min_len], axis=-1), }) return results def infer_disorder(model, tokenizer, dataset, batch_size=2): """Disorder inference. Returns list of {true, probs, preds}.""" results = [] with torch.no_grad(): for i in range(0, len(dataset), batch_size): batch = dataset[i:i + batch_size] for j in range(len(batch["sequence"])): seq = batch["sequence"][j] freqs = batch["soft_disorder_frequency"][j] true = np.array([1 if f >= DIS_THRESHOLD else 0 for f in freqs[:len(seq)]]) spaced = " ".join(list(seq)[:MAX_LEN - 2]) inputs = tokenizer( spaced, return_tensors="pt", truncation=True, max_length=MAX_LEN, return_special_tokens_mask=True ) special_mask = inputs.pop("special_tokens_mask").squeeze(0).bool().numpy() logits = model(**inputs).logits.squeeze(0) probs = torch.softmax(logits, dim=-1).numpy() # Remove special tokens aligned_probs = probs[~special_mask] min_len = min(len(true), len(aligned_probs)) results.append({ "true": true[:min_len], "probs": aligned_probs[:min_len], "preds": np.argmax(aligned_probs[:min_len], axis=-1), }) return results # ======================== METRICS ======================== def compute_accuracy(results): correct = sum(np.sum(r["preds"] == r["true"]) for r in results) total = sum(len(r["true"]) for r in results) return correct / total if total else 0 def compute_ece(results, n_bins=10): all_conf, all_correct = [], [] for r in results: conf = np.max(r["probs"], axis=-1) correct = (r["preds"] == r["true"]).astype(float) all_conf.extend(conf) all_correct.extend(correct) all_conf = np.array(all_conf) all_correct = np.array(all_correct) ece_val = 0.0 for i in range(n_bins): lo, hi = i / n_bins, (i + 1) / n_bins mask = (all_conf > lo) & (all_conf <= hi) if mask.sum() == 0: continue ece_val += mask.sum() * abs(all_conf[mask].mean() - all_correct[mask].mean()) return ece_val / len(all_conf) if len(all_conf) else 0 def compute_brier(results): scores = [] for r in results: n = len(r["true"]) if n == 0: continue n_cls = r["probs"].shape[1] one_hot = np.zeros((n, n_cls)) one_hot[np.arange(n), r["true"]] = 1 scores.append(np.mean(np.sum((r["probs"] - one_hot) ** 2, axis=-1))) return np.mean(scores) if scores else 0 # ======================== TEMPERATURE SCALING ======================== def find_temperature(cal_results, grid=None): if grid is None: grid = np.linspace(0.5, 5.0, 50) all_logits, all_labels = [], [] for r in cal_results: probs = np.clip(r["probs"], 1e-10, 1.0) all_logits.append(np.log(probs)) all_labels.append(r["true"]) all_logits = np.concatenate(all_logits) all_labels = np.concatenate(all_labels) best_t, best_nll = 1.0, float("inf") for t in grid: scaled = all_logits / t max_log = np.max(scaled, axis=-1, keepdims=True) log_probs = scaled - max_log - np.log(np.sum(np.exp(scaled - max_log), axis=-1, keepdims=True)) nll = -np.mean(log_probs[np.arange(len(all_labels)), all_labels]) if nll < best_nll: best_nll = nll best_t = t return best_t def apply_temperature(results, temp): scaled = [] for r in results: probs = np.clip(r["probs"], 1e-10, 1.0) logits = np.log(probs) / temp max_log = np.max(logits, axis=-1, keepdims=True) new_probs = np.exp(logits - max_log) / np.sum(np.exp(logits - max_log), axis=-1, keepdims=True) scaled.append({"true": r["true"], "probs": new_probs, "preds": np.argmax(new_probs, axis=-1)}) return scaled # ======================== CONFORMAL ======================== def conformal_qhat(cal_results, alpha=0.1): scores = [1.0 - r["probs"][j, label] for r in cal_results for j, label in enumerate(r["true"])] scores = np.array(scores) n = len(scores) q = np.ceil((n + 1) * (1 - alpha)) / n return np.quantile(scores, q, method="higher") def conformal_qhat_class_conditional(cal_results, alpha=0.1): class_scores = defaultdict(list) for r in cal_results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): class_scores[label].append(1.0 - r["probs"][j, label]) thresholds = {} for label, scores in class_scores.items(): scores = np.array(scores) n = len(scores) if n == 0: thresholds[label] = 1.0 continue q = np.ceil((n + 1) * (1 - alpha)) / n thresholds[label] = np.quantile(scores, q, method="higher") return thresholds def evaluate_conformal(results, q_hat, n_classes, per_class_thresholds=None): coverage_count, total = 0, 0 set_sizes = [] class_cov = defaultdict(int) class_tot = defaultdict(int) class_set = defaultdict(list) size_strat = defaultdict(lambda: {"correct": 0, "total": 0}) for r in results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): total += 1 threshold = per_class_thresholds.get(label, q_hat) if per_class_thresholds else q_hat pred_set = [y for y in range(n_classes) if (1.0 - r["probs"][j, y]) <= threshold] set_size = len(pred_set) set_sizes.append(set_size) size_strat[set_size]["total"] += 1 if label in pred_set: coverage_count += 1 class_cov[label] += 1 size_strat[set_size]["correct"] += 1 class_tot[label] += 1 class_set[label].append(set_size) coverage = coverage_count / total if total else 0 avg_size = np.mean(set_sizes) if set_sizes else 0 per_class = {} for k in sorted(class_tot.keys()): per_class[k] = { "coverage": class_cov[k] / class_tot[k] if class_tot[k] else 0, "avg_set_size": np.mean(class_set[k]) if class_set[k] else 0, } size_strat_out = {} for size in sorted(size_strat.keys()): d = size_strat[size] size_strat_out[size] = { "coverage": d["correct"] / d["total"] if d["total"] else 0, "n": d["total"], } return coverage, avg_size, per_class, size_strat_out def evaluate_mondrian(cal_results, test_results, alpha, n_classes): class_cal = defaultdict(list) for r in cal_results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): class_cal[label].append(1.0 - r["probs"][j, label]) thresholds = {} for label, scores in class_cal.items(): scores = np.array(scores) n = len(scores) if n == 0: thresholds[label] = 1.0 continue q = np.ceil((n + 1) * (1 - alpha)) / n thresholds[label] = np.quantile(scores, q, method="higher") class_cov = defaultdict(lambda: {"correct": 0, "total": 0}) class_set = defaultdict(list) for r in test_results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): threshold = thresholds.get(label, 1.0) pred_set = [y for y in range(n_classes) if (1.0 - r["probs"][j, y]) <= threshold] set_size = len(pred_set) class_cov[label]["total"] += 1 class_set[label].append(set_size) if label in pred_set: class_cov[label]["correct"] += 1 mondrian = {} for k in sorted(class_cov.keys()): d = class_cov[k] mondrian[k] = { "coverage": d["correct"] / d["total"] if d["total"] else 0, "avg_set_size": np.mean(class_set[k]) if class_set[k] else 0, "n": d["total"], } return mondrian # ======================== BASELINES ======================== def entropy_baseline(results, alpha, n_classes): coverage_count, total = 0, 0 set_sizes = [] for r in results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): total += 1 probs = r["probs"][j] sorted_idx = np.argsort(-probs) cumsum = np.cumsum(probs[sorted_idx]) n_include = np.searchsorted(cumsum, 1 - alpha) + 1 pred_set = sorted_idx[:n_include].tolist() set_sizes.append(len(pred_set)) if label in pred_set: coverage_count += 1 return coverage_count / total if total else 0, np.mean(set_sizes) if set_sizes else 0 def maxmargin_baseline(results, alpha, n_classes): all_margins = [] for r in results: for j in range(len(r["true"])): probs = r["probs"][j] sp = np.sort(probs)[::-1] all_margins.append(sp[0] - sp[1] if len(sp) > 1 else 1.0) all_margins = np.array(all_margins) n = len(all_margins) q = np.ceil((n + 1) * (1 - alpha)) / n margin_thresh = np.quantile(all_margins, q, method="higher") coverage_count, total = 0, 0 set_sizes = [] for r in results: for j, label in enumerate(r["true"]): total += 1 probs = r["probs"][j] sorted_idx = np.argsort(-probs) sp = np.sort(probs)[::-1] margin = sp[0] - sp[1] if len(sp) > 1 else 1.0 if margin >= margin_thresh: pred_set = [sorted_idx[0]] else: pred_set = sorted_idx[:min(2, n_classes)].tolist() set_sizes.append(len(pred_set)) if label in pred_set: coverage_count += 1 return coverage_count / total if total else 0, np.mean(set_sizes) if set_sizes else 0 # ======================== PRIORITIZATION ======================== def experiment_prioritization(results, budgets): all_unc, all_errors = [], [] for r in results: max_probs = np.max(r["probs"], axis=-1) uncertainties = 1 - max_probs errors = (r["preds"] != r["true"]).astype(float) all_unc.extend(uncertainties) all_errors.extend(errors) all_unc = np.array(all_unc) all_errors = np.array(all_errors) n_total = len(all_unc) out = {} for budget in budgets: b = min(budget, n_total) random_idx = np.random.choice(n_total, size=b, replace=False) random_rate = all_errors[random_idx].mean() sorted_idx = np.argsort(-all_unc) top_idx = sorted_idx[:b] unc_rate = all_errors[top_idx].mean() catch = unc_rate / random_rate if random_rate > 0 else float('inf') out[budget] = { "random_error_rate": float(random_rate), "uncertainty_error_rate": float(unc_rate), "catch_rate": float(catch), } return out # ======================== CROSS-MODEL ======================== def cross_model_transfer(cal_results_small, test_results_large, alpha, n_classes): q = conformal_qhat(cal_results_small, alpha) cov, size, _, size_strat = evaluate_conformal(test_results_large, q, n_classes) return { "q_hat": float(q), "coverage": float(cov), "avg_set_size": float(size), "size_stratified": {str(k): v for k, v in size_strat.items()}, } # ======================== PIPELINE ======================== def run_pipeline(model_id, dataset_loader, infer_fn, task_name, n_classes, label_map, budgets=[100, 500, 1000, 5000]): """Run full conformal pipeline for one model+task.""" log(f"\n{'='*60}") log(f"TASK: {task_name}") log(f"MODEL: {model_id}") log(f"{'='*60}") model, tokenizer = load_model(model_id) cal_ds, test_ds = dataset_loader() log(f" Calibration: {len(cal_ds)} seqs, Test: {len(test_ds)} seqs") log(" Running inference (calibration)...") cal_results = infer_fn(model, tokenizer, cal_ds) log(f" Calibration residues: {sum(len(r['true']) for r in cal_results):,}") log(" Running inference (test)...") test_results = infer_fn(model, tokenizer, test_ds) log(f" Test residues: {sum(len(r['true']) for r in test_results):,}") # Free model memory del model if torch.cuda.is_available(): torch.cuda.empty_cache() # Baseline base_acc = compute_accuracy(test_results) base_ece = compute_ece(test_results) base_brier = compute_brier(test_results) log(f" Baseline: Acc={base_acc:.4f}, ECE={base_ece:.4f}, Brier={base_brier:.4f}") # Temperature scaling best_t = find_temperature(cal_results) scaled_cal = apply_temperature(cal_results, best_t) scaled_test = apply_temperature(test_results, best_t) ts_acc = compute_accuracy(scaled_test) ts_ece = compute_ece(scaled_test) ts_brier = compute_brier(scaled_test) ece_red = (base_ece - ts_ece) / base_ece * 100 if base_ece else 0 log(f" Temperature T={best_t:.2f}: Acc={ts_acc:.4f}, ECE={ts_ece:.4f} ({ece_red:+.0f}%), Brier={ts_brier:.4f}") # Conformal (raw) log(" Conformal prediction...") conformal = {} for alpha in [0.05, 0.10, 0.20]: q = conformal_qhat(cal_results, alpha) cov, size, pclass, sstrat = evaluate_conformal(test_results, q, n_classes) log(f" Raw alpha={alpha:.2f}: cov={cov:.4f}, set={size:.2f}") q_s = conformal_qhat(scaled_cal, alpha) cov_s, size_s, pclass_s, sstrat_s = evaluate_conformal(scaled_test, q_s, n_classes) log(f" T-scaled alpha={alpha:.2f}: cov={cov_s:.4f}, set={size_s:.2f}") conformal[f"alpha_{alpha}"] = { "raw": {"coverage": float(cov), "avg_set_size": float(size), "per_class": {label_map.get(k, str(k)): v for k, v in pclass.items()}, "size_stratified": {str(kk): vv for kk, vv in sstrat.items()}}, "temperature_scaled": {"coverage": float(cov_s), "avg_set_size": float(size_s), "per_class": {label_map.get(k, str(k)): v for k, v in pclass_s.items()}, "size_stratified": {str(kk): vv for kk, vv in sstrat_s.items()}}, } # Class-conditional log(" Class-conditional conformal...") cc = {} for alpha in [0.05, 0.10, 0.20]: th = conformal_qhat_class_conditional(cal_results, alpha) cov, size, pclass, _ = evaluate_conformal(test_results, 0, n_classes, th) log(f" alpha={alpha:.2f}: cov={cov:.4f}, set={size:.2f}") cc[f"alpha_{alpha}"] = { "coverage": float(cov), "avg_set_size": float(size), "per_class": {label_map.get(k, str(k)): v for k, v in pclass.items()}, } # Mondrian log(" Mondrian conformal...") mondrian = {} for alpha in [0.05, 0.10, 0.20]: mon = evaluate_mondrian(cal_results, test_results, alpha, n_classes) log(f" alpha={alpha:.2f}") for k, v in mon.items(): log(f" {label_map.get(k, str(k))}: cov={v['coverage']:.4f}, set={v['avg_set_size']:.2f}, n={v['n']}") mondrian[f"alpha_{alpha}"] = {label_map.get(k, str(k)): v for k, v in mon.items()} # Baselines log(" Baselines...") ent = {} mm = {} for alpha in [0.05, 0.10, 0.20]: ec, es = entropy_baseline(test_results, alpha, n_classes) mc, ms = maxmargin_baseline(test_results, alpha, n_classes) log(f" alpha={alpha:.2f}: Entropy cov={ec:.4f} set={es:.2f}, MaxMargin cov={mc:.4f} set={ms:.2f}") ent[f"alpha_{alpha}"] = {"coverage": float(ec), "avg_set_size": float(es)} mm[f"alpha_{alpha}"] = {"coverage": float(mc), "avg_set_size": float(ms)} # Prioritization log(" Experiment prioritization...") prio = experiment_prioritization(test_results, budgets) for b, d in prio.items(): log(f" Budget={b}: random={d['random_error_rate']:.3f}, unc={d['uncertainty_error_rate']:.3f}, catch={d['catch_rate']:.2f}x") return { "task": task_name, "model": model_id, "baseline": {"accuracy": float(base_acc), "ece": float(base_ece), "brier": float(base_brier)}, "temperature_scaling": {"temperature": float(best_t), "accuracy": float(ts_acc), "ece": float(ts_ece), "brier": float(ts_brier), "ece_reduction_pct": float(ece_red)}, "conformal": conformal, "class_conditional": cc, "mondrian": mondrian, "entropy_baseline": ent, "maxmargin_baseline": mm, "experiment_prioritization": prio, "_cal_raw": cal_results, "_cal_scaled": scaled_cal, "_test_raw": test_results, "_test_scaled": scaled_test, } # ======================== MAIN ======================== def main(): log("=" * 60) log("ConformalESM-Extended: Unified Pipeline") log("All post-hoc, CPU-only, no retraining") log("=" * 60) all_results = {} # Task 1: Secondary Structure - 8M ss8m = run_pipeline(SS_MODEL_8M, load_ss_data, infer_ss, "Secondary Structure (Q3) - ESM-2-8M", 3, SS_ID2LABEL) all_results["ss_8m"] = {k: v for k, v in ss8m.items() if not k.startswith("_")} # Task 1: Secondary Structure - 650M ss650m = run_pipeline(SS_MODEL_650M, load_ss_data, infer_ss, "Secondary Structure (Q3) - ESM-2-650M", 3, SS_ID2LABEL) all_results["ss_650m"] = {k: v for k, v in ss650m.items() if not k.startswith("_")} # Task 2: Disorder - 35M dis35m = run_pipeline(DIS_MODEL_35M, load_disorder_data, infer_disorder, "Disorder Prediction - ESM-2-35M", 2, {0: "Ordered", 1: "Disordered"}) all_results["disorder_35m"] = {k: v for k, v in dis35m.items() if not k.startswith("_")} # Task 2: Disorder - 650M dis650m = run_pipeline(DIS_MODEL_650M, load_disorder_data, infer_disorder, "Disorder Prediction - ESM-2-650M", 2, {0: "Ordered", 1: "Disordered"}) all_results["disorder_650m"] = {k: v for k, v in dis650m.items() if not k.startswith("_")} # Cross-model transfer log(f"\n{'='*60}") log("Cross-Model Calibration Transfer") log(f"{'='*60}") log(" SS: 8M calibrate -> 650M test...") t1 = cross_model_transfer(ss8m["_cal_raw"], ss650m["_test_raw"], 0.10, 3) log(f" Coverage: {t1['coverage']:.4f}, Avg set: {t1['avg_set_size']:.2f}") all_results["transfer_ss_8m_to_650m"] = t1 log(" SS: 8M calibrate (T-scaled) -> 650M test...") t2 = cross_model_transfer(ss8m["_cal_scaled"], ss650m["_test_scaled"], 0.10, 3) log(f" Coverage: {t2['coverage']:.4f}, Avg set: {t2['avg_set_size']:.2f}") all_results["transfer_ss_8m_to_650m_temperature_scaled"] = t2 log(" Disorder: 35M calibrate -> 650M test...") t3 = cross_model_transfer(dis35m["_cal_raw"], dis650m["_test_raw"], 0.10, 2) log(f" Coverage: {t3['coverage']:.4f}, Avg set: {t3['avg_set_size']:.2f}") all_results["transfer_dis_35m_to_650m"] = t3 # Save log(f"\n{'='*60}") log("Saving Results") log(f"{'='*60}") with open("conformalesm_unified_results.json", "w") as f: json.dump(all_results, f, indent=2) log(" Saved: conformalesm_unified_results.json") # Push to hub log(" Pushing to knoxel/conformalesm-paper-starter...") try: from huggingface_hub import HfApi api = HfApi() api.upload_file( path_or_fileobj="conformalesm_unified_results.json", path_in_repo="conformalesm_unified_results.json", repo_id="knoxel/conformalesm-paper-starter", repo_type="model", ) log(" Successfully pushed to Hub!") except Exception as e: log(f" Could not push to Hub: {e}") log(" Results saved locally.") log(f"\n{'='*60}") log("ALL DONE") log(f"{'='*60}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()