Daily Papers

The advent of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) has marked a paradigm shift in education, enabling highly personalized learning pathways. However, true personalization requires adapting to learners' complex knowledge states (multi-source) and diverse goals (multi-sink); existing ITSs often lack the necessary structural-reasoning capability and knowledge dynamism to generate genuinely effective learning paths, and they lack scientifically rigorous validation paradigms. In this paper we propose GraphMASAL (A Graph-based Multi-Agent System for Adaptive Learning), which integrates (i) a dynamic knowledge graph for persistent, stateful learner modeling; (ii) a LangGraph-orchestrated trio of agents (Diagnostician, Planner, Tutor); (iii) a knowledge-graph-grounded two-stage neural IR component (dual-encoder dense retrieval with cross-encoder listwise re-ranking and calibrated score fusion); and (iv) a multi-source multi-sink (MSMS) planning engine with a cognitively grounded cost and an approximation guarantee via greedy set cover. Under blinded automated evaluations with matched inputs and inference settings across diverse student profiles, GraphMASAL consistently outperforms LLM prompting and structured ablations in planning--achieving stronger structural/sequence alignment of learning paths, higher coverage of weak concepts, and lower learning cost--while also surpassing prompt-based baselines in cognitive diagnosis. Agreement with expert/LLM-proxy ratings further supports the validity of our evaluation protocol. These findings indicate that grounding LLM agents in a dynamic knowledge graph, coupled with optimization under educational constraints, yields reliable, interpretable, and pedagogically plausible learning plans, advancing personalized and goal-oriented education.

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration problem for heterogeneous retrieval fusion in multi-hop question answering. Our method, PhaseGraph, maps vector and graph scores to a common unit-free scale using percentile-rank normalization (PIT) before fusion, enabling stable combination without discarding magnitude information. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, calibrated fusion improves held-out last-hop retrieval on HippoRAG2-style benchmarks: LastHop@5 increases from 75.1% to 76.5% on MuSiQue (8W/1L, p=0.039) and from 51.7% to 53.6% on 2WikiMultiHopQA (11W/2L, p=0.023), both on independent held-out test splits. A theory-driven ablation shows that percentile-based calibration is directionally more robust than min-max normalization on both tune and test splits (1W/6L, p=0.125), while Boltzmann weighting performs comparably to linear fusion after calibration (0W/3L, p=0.25). These results suggest that score commensuration is a robust design choice, and the exact post-calibration operator appears to matter less on these benchmarks.

Autonomous language-model agents increasingly rely on installable skills and tools to complete user tasks. Static skill auditing can expose capability surface before deployment, but it cannot determine whether a particular invocation is unsafe under the current user request and runtime context. We therefore study skill invocation auditing as a continuous-risk estimation problem: given a user request, candidate skill, and runtime context, predict a score that supports ranking and triage before a hard intervention is applied. We introduce STARS, which combines a static capability prior, a request-conditioned invocation risk model, and a calibrated risk-fusion policy. To evaluate this setting, we construct SIA-Bench, a benchmark of 3,000 invocation records with group-safe splits, lineage metadata, runtime context, canonical action labels, and derived continuous-risk targets. On a held-out split of indirect prompt injection attacks, calibrated fusion reaches 0.439 high-risk AUPRC, improving over 0.405 for the contextual scorer and 0.380 for the strongest static baseline, while the contextual scorer remains better calibrated with 0.289 expected calibration error. On the locked in-distribution test split, gains are smaller and static priors remain useful. The resulting claim is therefore narrower: request-conditioned auditing is most valuable as an invocation-time risk-scoring and triage layer rather than as a replacement for static screening. Code is available at https://github.com/123zgj123/STARS.

Model fusion is a key strategy for robust recognition in unconstrained scenarios, as different models provide complementary strengths. This is especially important for whole-body human recognition, where biometric cues such as face, gait, and body shape vary across samples and are typically integrated via score-fusion. However, existing score-fusion strategies are usually static, invoking all models for every test sample regardless of sample quality or modality reliability. To overcome these limitations, we propose FusionAgent, a novel agentic framework that leverages a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) to perform dynamic, sample-specific model selection. Each expert model is treated as a tool, and through Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) with a metric-based reward, the agent learns to adaptively determine the optimal model combination for each test input. To address the model score misalignment and embedding heterogeneity, we introduce Anchor-based Confidence Top-k (ACT) score-fusion, which anchors on the most confident model and integrates complementary predictions in a confidence-aware manner. Extensive experiments on multiple whole-body biometric benchmarks demonstrate that FusionAgent significantly outperforms SoTA methods while achieving higher efficiency through fewer model invocations, underscoring the critical role of dynamic, explainable, and robust model fusion in real-world recognition systems. Project page: https://fusionagent.github.io/{FusionAgent}.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Whole-body biometric recognition is a challenging multimodal task that integrates various biometric modalities, including face, gait, and body. This integration is essential for overcoming the limitations of unimodal systems. Traditionally, whole-body recognition involves deploying different models to process multiple modalities, achieving the final outcome by score-fusion (e.g., weighted averaging of similarity matrices from each model). However, these conventional methods may overlook the variations in score distributions of individual modalities, making it challenging to improve final performance. In this work, we present Quality-guided Mixture of score-fusion Experts (QME), a novel framework designed for improving whole-body biometric recognition performance through a learnable score-fusion strategy using a Mixture of Experts (MoE). We introduce a novel pseudo-quality loss for quality estimation with a modality-specific Quality Estimator (QE), and a score triplet loss to improve the metric performance. Extensive experiments on multiple whole-body biometric datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach, achieving state-of-the-art results across various metrics compared to baseline methods. Our method is effective for multimodal and multi-model, addressing key challenges such as model misalignment in the similarity score domain and variability in data quality.

We introduce TuneJury, an open, instance-level pairwise reward model for text-to-music that predicts a music preference score from a text prompt and an audio clip. The released checkpoint is trained on publicly available human-preference labels covering arena-style (A vs. B) votes, metric-alignment preference pairs, crowdsourced pairwise comparisons, and expert aesthetic ratings. The predicted score margin between two clips is well calibrated on our held-out test split, supporting data filtering via a simple score threshold. TuneJury generalizes to both held-out test pairs and out-of-distribution benchmarks, remaining competitive with prior baselines on the latter. For generators released after training, we introduce anchor calibration, a post-hoc, per-system Bradley-Terry calibration that recovers agreement at substantially better data efficiency than from-scratch retraining. The same frozen reward drives consistent reward-axis gains across three downstream applications: inference-time best-of-N selection, DITTO-style latent optimization, and expert-iteration post-training. TuneJury is available at https://github.com/yonghyunk1m/TuneJury.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

Network calibration aims to accurately estimate the level of confidences, which is particularly important for employing deep neural networks in real-world systems. Recent approaches leverage mixup to calibrate the network's predictions during training. However, they do not consider the problem that mixtures of labels in mixup may not accurately represent the actual distribution of augmented samples. In this paper, we present RankMixup, a novel mixup-based framework alleviating the problem of the mixture of labels for network calibration. To this end, we propose to use an ordinal ranking relationship between raw and mixup-augmented samples as an alternative supervisory signal to the label mixtures for network calibration. We hypothesize that the network should estimate a higher level of confidence for the raw samples than the augmented ones (Fig.1). To implement this idea, we introduce a mixup-based ranking loss (MRL) that encourages lower confidences for augmented samples compared to raw ones, maintaining the ranking relationship. We also propose to leverage the ranking relationship among multiple mixup-augmented samples to further improve the calibration capability. Augmented samples with larger mixing coefficients are expected to have higher confidences and vice versa (Fig.1). That is, the order of confidences should be aligned with that of mixing coefficients. To this end, we introduce a novel loss, M-NDCG, in order to reduce the number of misaligned pairs of the coefficients and confidences. Extensive experimental results on standard benchmarks for network calibration demonstrate the effectiveness of RankMixup.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

We propose a new score-based model with one-step sampling. Previously, score-based models were burdened with heavy computations due to iterative sampling. For substituting the iterative process, we train a standalone generator to compress all the time steps with the gradient backpropagated from the score network. In order to produce meaningful gradients for the generator, the score network is trained to simultaneously match the real data distribution and mismatch the fake data distribution. This model has the following advantages: 1) For sampling, it generates a fake image with only one step forward. 2) For training, it only needs 10 diffusion steps.3) Compared with consistency model, it is free of the ill-posed problem caused by consistency loss. On the popular CIFAR-10 dataset, our model outperforms Consistency Model and Denoising Score Matching, which demonstrates the potential of the framework. We further provide more examples on the MINIST and LSUN datasets. The code is available on GitHub.

Due to its ability to accurately predict emotional state using multimodal features, audiovisual emotion recognition has recently gained more interest from researchers. This paper proposes two methods to predict emotional attributes from audio and visual data using a multitask learning and a fusion strategy. First, multitask learning is employed by adjusting three parameters for each attribute to improve the recognition rate. Second, a multistage fusion is proposed to combine results from various modalities' final prediction. Our approach used multitask learning, employed at unimodal and early fusion methods, shows improvement over single-task learning with an average CCC score of 0.431 compared to 0.297. A multistage method, employed at the late fusion approach, significantly improved the agreement score between true and predicted values on the development set of data (from [0.537, 0.565, 0.083] to [0.68, 0.656, 0.443]) for arousal, valence, and liking.

Perceptual similarity scores that align with human vision are critical for both training and evaluating computer vision models. Deep perceptual losses, such as LPIPS, achieve good alignment but rely on complex, highly non-linear discriminative features with unknown invariances, while hand-crafted measures like SSIM are interpretable but miss key perceptual properties. We introduce the Structured Uncertainty Similarity Score (SUSS); it models each image through a set of perceptual components, each represented by a structured multivariate Normal distribution. These are trained in a generative, self-supervised manner to assign high likelihood to human-imperceptible augmentations. The final score is a weighted sum of component log-probabilities with weights learned from human perceptual datasets. Unlike feature-based methods, SUSS learns image-specific linear transformations of residuals in pixel space, enabling transparent inspection through decorrelated residuals and sampling. SUSS aligns closely with human perceptual judgments, shows strong perceptual calibration across diverse distortion types, and provides localized, interpretable explanations of its similarity assessments. We further demonstrate stable optimization behavior and competitive performance when using SUSS as a perceptual loss for downstream imaging tasks.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) segmentation on contrast-enhanced CT is inherently ambiguous: inter-rater disagreement among experts reflects genuine uncertainty rather than annotation noise. Standard deep learning approaches assume a single ground truth, producing probabilistic outputs that can be poorly calibrated and difficult to interpret under such ambiguity. We present TwinTrack, a framework that addresses this gap through post-hoc calibration of ensemble segmentation probabilities to the empirical mean human response (MHR) -the fraction of expert annotators labeling a voxel as tumor. Calibrated probabilities are thus directly interpretable as the expected proportion of annotators assigning the tumor label, explicitly modeling inter-rater disagreement. The proposed post-hoc calibration procedure is simple and requires only a small multi-rater calibration set. It consistently improves calibration metrics over standard approaches when evaluated on the MICCAI 2025 CURVAS-PDACVI multi-rater benchmark.

This paper describes our submitted systems to the ASVspoof 5 Challenge Track 1: Speech Deepfake Detection - Open Condition, which consists of a stand-alone speech deepfake (bonafide vs spoof) detection task. Recently, large-scale self-supervised models become a standard in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and other speech processing tasks. Thus, we leverage a pre-trained WavLM as a front-end model and pool its representations with different back-end techniques. The complete framework is fine-tuned using only the trained dataset of the challenge, similar to the close condition. Besides, we adopt data-augmentation by adding noise and reverberation using MUSAN noise and RIR datasets. We also experiment with codec augmentations to increase the performance of our method. Ultimately, we use the Bosaris toolkit for score calibration and system fusion to get better Cllr scores. Our fused system achieves 0.0937 minDCF, 3.42% EER, 0.1927 Cllr, and 0.1375 actDCF.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Video world models approximate the stochastic distribution of physical outcomes through generative sampling, but existing benchmarks score individual generations or compare distributions coarsely over a whole dataset, leaving the fine-grained aleatoric uncertainty of specific phenomena untested. We introduce CaliBench, which scores outcomes in a physically interpretable discrete space - a bin index, a die face, a suit, a colour - rather than a learned feature space such as in FID, so the distance from a known reference distribution is measured directly. We curate outcome spaces whose reference is known in closed form (binomial Galton boards, Bernoulli forks, uniform dice/cards/lottery, a skewed European-roulette colour), enabling an exact calibration test. We decompose performance into two orthogonal axes that a single accuracy metric conflates: scorability, the fraction of generations yielding a scoreable outcome, and calibration, the total variation distance from the reference on that sample. A chi-squared test assesses significance; as calibration is its null hypothesis it can evidence only miscalibration, and at N=32 per cell detects only large deviations. We apply it to nine scenes and six image-to-video models (WAN-2.7, SeeDance-2.0, HappyHorse-1.0, Veo 3.1, Runway Gen-4.5, Cosmos3-Super), 32 generations each. Models consistently concentrate probability mass on a few outcomes rather than reproducing the reference. Most scene-model combinations are significantly miscalibrated, in the extreme collapsing to one outcome, as Veo 3.1 does on dice. On roulette, generations often leave the ball ambiguously placed, giving several models low scorability. Performance varies by scene: no model dominates all nine. We release the protocol and a metric (mean normalised total variation, mnTV) for comparing new models against our results.

Dual-encoder retrievers depend on the principle that relevant documents should score higher than irrelevant ones for a given query. Yet the dominant Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) objective, which underpins Contrastive Loss, optimizes a softened ranking surrogate that we rigorously prove is fundamentally oblivious to score separation quality and unrelated to AUC. This mismatch leads to poor calibration and suboptimal performance in downstream tasks like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce the MW loss, a new training objective that maximizes the Mann-Whitney U statistic, which is mathematically equivalent to the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC). MW loss encourages each positive-negative pair to be correctly ranked by minimizing binary cross entropy over score differences. We provide theoretical guarantees that MW loss directly upper-bounds the AoC, better aligning optimization with retrieval goals. We further promote ROC curves and AUC as natural threshold free diagnostics for evaluating retriever calibration and ranking quality. Empirically, retrievers trained with MW loss consistently outperform contrastive counterparts in AUC and standard retrieval metrics. Our experiments show that MW loss is an empirically superior alternative to Contrastive Loss, yielding better-calibrated and more discriminative retrievers for high-stakes applications like RAG.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.

In the retrieval domain, candidates' fusion from heterogeneous retrievers is a long-standing challenge, particularly for complex, multi-modal data such as videos. While typical fusion techniques are training-free, they rely solely on rank or score signals, disregarding candidates' representations. This work introduces Vote-in-Context (ViC), a generalized, training-free framework that re-thinks list-wise reranking and fusion as a zero-shot reasoning task for a Vision-Language Model (VLM). The core insight is to serialize both content evidence and retriever metadata directly within the VLM's prompt, allowing the model to adaptively weigh retriever consensus against visual-linguistic content. We demonstrate the generality of this framework by applying it to the challenging domain of cross-modal video retrieval. To this end, we introduce the S-Grid, a compact serialization map that represents each video as an image grid, optionally paired with subtitles to enable list-wise reasoning over video candidates. ViC is evaluated both as a single-list reranker, where it dramatically improves the precision of individual retrievers, and as an ensemble fuser, where it consistently outperforms strong baselines like CombSUM. Across video retrieval benchmarks including ActivityNet and VATEX, the framework establishes new state-of-the-art zero-shot retrieval performance, demonstrating its effectiveness in handling complex visual and temporal signals alongside text. In zero-shot settings, ViC achieves Recall@1 scores of 87.1% (t2v) / 89.0% (v2t) on MSR-VTT and 99.6% (v2t) on VATEX, representing massive gains of up to +40 Recall@1 over previous state-of-the-art baselines. We present ViC as a simple, reproducible, and highly effective recipe for turning modern VLMs into powerful zero-shot rerankers and fusers. Code and resources are publicly available at: https://github.com/mohammad2012191/ViC

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Reliable multimodal sensor fusion algorithms require accurate spatiotemporal calibration. Recently, targetless calibration techniques based on implicit neural representations have proven to provide precise and robust results. Nevertheless, such methods are inherently slow to train given the high computational overhead caused by the large number of sampled points required for volume rendering. With the recent introduction of 3D Gaussian Splatting as a faster alternative to implicit representation methods, we propose to leverage this new rendering approach to achieve faster multi-sensor calibration. We introduce 3DGS-Calib, a new calibration method that relies on the speed and rendering accuracy of 3D Gaussian Splatting to achieve multimodal spatiotemporal calibration that is accurate, robust, and with a substantial speed-up compared to methods relying on implicit neural representations. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposal with experimental results on sequences from KITTI-360, a widely used driving dataset.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

This technical report describes our QuAVF@NTU-NVIDIA submission to the Ego4D Talking to Me (TTM) Challenge 2023. Based on the observation from the TTM task and the provided dataset, we propose to use two separate models to process the input videos and audio. By doing so, we can utilize all the labeled training data, including those without bounding box labels. Furthermore, we leverage the face quality score from a facial landmark prediction model for filtering noisy face input data. The face quality score is also employed in our proposed quality-aware fusion for integrating the results from two branches. With the simple architecture design, our model achieves 67.4% mean average precision (mAP) on the test set, which ranks first on the leaderboard and outperforms the baseline method by a large margin. Code is available at: https://github.com/hsi-che-lin/Ego4D-QuAVF-TTM-CVPR23

Combining the strengths of many existing predictors to obtain a Mixture of Experts which is superior to its individual components is an effective way to improve the performance without having to develop new architectures or train a model from scratch. However, surprisingly, we find that naïvely combining expert object detectors in a similar way to Deep Ensembles, can often lead to degraded performance. We identify that the primary cause of this issue is that the predictions of the experts do not match their performance, a term referred to as miscalibration. Consequently, the most confident detector dominates the final predictions, preventing the mixture from leveraging all the predictions from the experts appropriately. To address this, when constructing the Mixture of Experts, we propose to combine their predictions in a manner which reflects the individual performance of the experts; an objective we achieve by first calibrating the predictions before filtering and refining them. We term this approach the Mixture of Calibrated Experts and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on 5 different detection tasks using a variety of detectors, showing that it: (i) improves object detectors on COCO and instance segmentation methods on LVIS by up to sim 2.5 AP; (ii) reaches state-of-the-art on COCO test-dev with 65.1 AP and on DOTA with 82.62 AP_{50}; (iii) outperforms single models consistently on recent detection tasks such as Open Vocabulary Object Detection.

RAG systems are increasingly used to summarize what large collections of documents say. A user asks "What do people think about X?" and receives an answer that reads as consensus. But standard top-k retrieval ranks documents by query similarity, not by how faithfully they represent the population, so minority views quietly disappear. Existing fixes fall short. Diversity re-rankers like MMR and DPP spread retrieved documents apart, but with no target distribution to aim for. Calibration methods based on KL or JS divergence do target one, yet treat opinion bins as unordered: confusing strong positive with strong negative costs no more than an adjacent-bin miss. We introduce WARP, a family of post-retrieval algorithms that calibrate retrieved evidence to the population's opinion distribution. WARP first recovers underrepresented opinions that cosine ranking may bury, then uses Wasserstein-1 distance to select documents whose sentiment-intensity distribution matches the population target, capturing the ordinal structure ignored by KL and JS divergence. We develop three variants for dense, sparse, and variable candidate pools, trading off calibration quality and speed. Across three review domains spanning 35K documents, 156 queries, and 26 entities, WARP's domain-matched variants reduce distributional error by at least 43% with sub-second latency. These gains carry through to generation: a five-judge LLM panel prefers WARP-generated answers in 86% of decided comparisons at k <= 5.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Score-based diffusion modeling is a generative machine learning algorithm that can be used to sample from complex distributions. They achieve this by learning a score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-probability density of the data, and reversing a noising process using the same. Once trained, score-based diffusion models not only generate new samples but also enable zero-shot conditioning of the generated samples on observed data. This promises a novel paradigm for data and model fusion, wherein the implicitly learned distributions of pretrained score-based diffusion models can be updated given the availability of online data in a Bayesian formulation. In this article, we apply such a concept to the super-resolution of a high-dimensional dynamical system, given the real-time availability of low-resolution and experimentally observed sparse sensor measurements from multimodal data. Additional analysis on how score-based sampling can be used for uncertainty estimates is also provided. Our experiments are performed for a super-resolution task that generates the ERA5 atmospheric dataset given sparse observations from a coarse-grained representation of the same and/or from unstructured experimental observations of the IGRA radiosonde dataset. We demonstrate accurate recovery of the high dimensional state given multiple sources of low-fidelity measurements. We also discover that the generative model can balance the influence of multiple dataset modalities during spatiotemporal reconstructions.

Model merging combines task experts into one model and avoids joint training, retraining, or deploying many expert models, but the merged model often still underperforms task experts. We study this performance gap through feature drift, the difference between features produced by the merged model and by the expert on the same input. Our theory decomposes this drift into upstream propagation and local mismatch, tracks how it propagates and combines through later layers in forward order, and links final feature drift to output drift. This view motivates FeatCal, which uses a small calibration set to calibrate the merged model weights layer by layer in forward order, reducing feature drift while staying close to merged weights and preserving the benefits of model merging. FeatCal uses an efficient closed-form solution to update model weights, with no gradient descent, iterative optimization, or extra modules. On the main CLIP and GLUE benchmarks, FeatCal beats Surgery and ProbSurgery, the closest post-merging calibration baselines: 85.5% vs. 77.0%/78.8% on CLIP-ViT-B/32 Task Arithmetic (TA) and 85.2% vs. 83.7%/82.2% on FLAN-T5-base GLUE. On CLIP-ViT-B/32, 8 examples per task reach 82.9%, and 256 examples per task take 53 seconds, about 4x faster than both baselines, showing better sample efficiency and lower calibration cost.

While recent advancements in large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their abilities in image quality assessment (IQA) relying on absolute quality rating, how to transfer reliable relative quality comparison outputs to continuous perceptual quality scores remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Compare2Score-an all-around LMM-based no-reference IQA (NR-IQA) model, which is capable of producing qualitatively comparative responses and effectively translating these discrete comparative levels into a continuous quality score. Specifically, during training, we present to generate scaled-up comparative instructions by comparing images from the same IQA dataset, allowing for more flexible integration of diverse IQA datasets. Utilizing the established large-scale training corpus, we develop a human-like visual quality comparator. During inference, moving beyond binary choices, we propose a soft comparison method that calculates the likelihood of the test image being preferred over multiple predefined anchor images. The quality score is further optimized by maximum a posteriori estimation with the resulting probability matrix. Extensive experiments on nine IQA datasets validate that the Compare2Score effectively bridges text-defined comparative levels during training with converted single image quality score for inference, surpassing state-of-the-art IQA models across diverse scenarios. Moreover, we verify that the probability-matrix-based inference conversion not only improves the rating accuracy of Compare2Score but also zero-shot general-purpose LMMs, suggesting its intrinsic effectiveness.

Face Image Quality Assessment is crucial for reliable face recognition systems, yet existing Vision Transformer-based approaches rely exclusively on final-layer representations, ignoring quality-relevant information captured at intermediate network depths. This paper presents the first comprehensive investigation of how intermediate representations within ViTs contribute to face quality assessment through early exit mechanisms and score fusion strategies. We systematically analyze all twelve transformer blocks of ViT-FIQA architectures, demonstrating that different depths capture distinct and complementary quality-relevant information, as evidenced by varying attention patterns and performance characteristics across network layers. We propose a score fusion framework that combines quality predictions from multiple transformer blocks without architectural modifications or additional training. Our early exit analysis reveals optimal performance-efficiency trade-offs, enabling significant computational savings while maintaining competitive performance. Through extensive evaluation across eight benchmark datasets using four FR models, we demonstrate that our fusion strategy improves upon single-exit approaches. Our proposed quality fusion approach employs depth-weighted averaging that assigns progressively higher importance to deeper transformer blocks, achieving the best quality assessment performance by effectively leveraging the hierarchical nature of feature learning in ViTs. Our work challenges the conventional wisdom that only deep features matter for face analysis, revealing that intermediate representations contain valuable information for quality assessment. The proposed framework offers practical benefits for real-world biometric systems by enabling adaptive computation based on resource constraints while maintaining competitive quality assessment capabilities.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling. However, this study confirms the existence of overfitting in diffusion model training, particularly in data-limited regimes. To address this challenge, we propose Score Augmentation (ScoreAug), a novel data augmentation framework specifically designed for diffusion models. Unlike conventional augmentation approaches that operate on clean data, ScoreAug applies transformations to noisy data, aligning with the inherent denoising mechanism of diffusion. Crucially, ScoreAug further requires the denoiser to predict the augmentation of the original target. This design establishes an equivariant learning objective, enabling the denoiser to learn scores across varied denoising spaces, thereby realizing what we term score augmentation. We also theoretically analyze the relationship between scores in different spaces under general transformations. In experiments, we extensively validate ScoreAug on multiple benchmarks including CIFAR-10, FFHQ, AFHQv2, and ImageNet, with results demonstrating significant performance improvements over baselines. Notably, ScoreAug effectively mitigates overfitting across diverse scenarios, such as varying data scales and model capacities, while exhibiting stable convergence properties. Another advantage of ScoreAug over standard data augmentation lies in its ability to circumvent data leakage issues under certain conditions. Furthermore, we show that ScoreAug can be synergistically combined with traditional data augmentation techniques to achieve additional performance gains.

Video reasoning language models implicitly assume that every input frame is equally reliable. This leads to what we term the Blind Trust Problem: under realistic perturbations such as motion blur, glare, or occlusion, frontier video reasoning models can suffer 15-30%p accuracy drops on real-world embodied benchmarks, while remaining unaware that their visual evidence has been degraded. To address this challenge, we propose Robust-TO, an agentic video understanding framework that explicitly integrates per-frame trustworthiness into every stage of reasoning. Robust-TO organizes heterogeneous visual perception tools under a unified evidence interface. Each tool receives a sub-query derived from the original question and a set of trustworthy frames selected by the reliability-relevance score. It returns evidence in a shared format: a concrete prediction (e.g., a bounding box, motion trajectory, recognized text, or action label), temporal grounding, and a calibrated reliability score. During reasoning, these calibrated scores guide evidence weighting in a three-tier synthesis process (high/medium/low) and define a confidence-cost GRPO reward that jointly optimizes correctness, evidence reliability, and efficiency. On two video reasoning benchmarks spanning eight tasks, Robust-TO achieves 56.4% average accuracy on clean inputs, surpassing the strongest open-source baseline by 10.6%p and outperforming Gemini-2.5-Pro (46.2%). Under five realistic corruption types, Robust-TO maintains 54.3% average accuracy, 5.8%p above the strongest open-source baseline, while exhibiting the smallest clean-to-corrupted accuracy drop among all compared methods.

With the increasing adoption of vision-language models (VLMs) in critical decision-making systems such as healthcare or autonomous driving, the calibration of their uncertainty estimates becomes paramount. Yet, this dimension has been largely underexplored in the VLM test-time prompt-tuning (TPT) literature, which has predominantly focused on improving their discriminative performance. Recent state-of-the-art advocates for enforcing full orthogonality over pairs of text prompt embeddings to enhance separability, and therefore calibration. Nevertheless, as we theoretically show in this work, the inherent gradients from fully orthogonal constraints will strongly push semantically related classes away, ultimately making the model overconfident. Based on our findings, we propose Semantic Orthogonal Calibration (SoC), a Huber-based regularizer that enforces smooth prototype separation while preserving semantic proximity, thereby improving calibration compared to prior orthogonality-based approaches. Across a comprehensive empirical validation, we demonstrate that SoC consistently improves calibration performance, while also maintaining competitive discriminative capabilities.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

We study hybrid search in text retrieval where lexical and semantic search are fused together with the intuition that the two are complementary in how they model relevance. In particular, we examine fusion by a convex combination (CC) of lexical and semantic scores, as well as the Reciprocal Rank Fusion (RRF) method, and identify their advantages and potential pitfalls. Contrary to existing studies, we find RRF to be sensitive to its parameters; that the learning of a CC fusion is generally agnostic to the choice of score normalization; that CC outperforms RRF in in-domain and out-of-domain settings; and finally, that CC is sample efficient, requiring only a small set of training examples to tune its only parameter to a target domain.

The rapid release of both language models and benchmarks makes it increasingly costly to evaluate every model on every dataset. In practice, models are often evaluated on different samples, making scores difficult to compare across studies. To address this, we propose a framework based on multidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) that uses anchor items to calibrate new benchmarks to the evaluation suite while holding previously calibrated item parameters fixed. Our approach supports a realistic evaluation setting in which datasets are introduced over time and models are evaluated only on the datasets available at the time of evaluation, while a fixed anchor set for each dataset is used so that results from different evaluation periods can be compared directly. In large-scale experiments on more than 400 models, our framework predicts full-evaluation performance within 2-3 percentage points using only 100 anchor questions per dataset, with Spearman ρgeq 0.9 for ranking preservation, showing that it is possible to extend benchmark suites over time while preserving score comparability, at a constant evaluation cost per new dataset. Code available at https://github.com/eliyahabba/growing-pains

Self-supervised contrastive learning (CL) has achieved state-of-the-art performance in representation learning by minimizing the distance between positive pairs while maximizing that of negative ones. Recently, it has been verified that the model learns better representation with diversely augmented positive pairs because they enable the model to be more view-invariant. However, only a few studies on CL have considered the difference between augmented views, and have not gone beyond the hand-crafted findings. In this paper, we first observe that the score-matching function can measure how much data has changed from the original through augmentation. With the observed property, every pair in CL can be weighted adaptively by the difference of score values, resulting in boosting the performance of the existing CL method. We show the generality of our method, referred to as ScoreCL, by consistently improving various CL methods, SimCLR, SimSiam, W-MSE, and VICReg, up to 3%p in k-NN evaluation on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-100. Moreover, we have conducted exhaustive experiments and ablations, including results on diverse downstream tasks, comparison with possible baselines, and improvement when used with other proposed augmentation methods. We hope our exploration will inspire more research in exploiting the score matching for CL.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

Despite the large body of work on fairness-aware learning for individual modalities like tabular data, images, and text, less work has been done on multimodal data, which fuses various modalities for a comprehensive analysis. In this work, we investigate the fairness and bias implications of multimodal fusion techniques in the context of multimodal AI-based recruitment systems using the FairCVdb dataset. Our results show that early-fusion closely matches the ground truth for both demographics, achieving the lowest MAEs by integrating each modality's unique characteristics. In contrast, late-fusion leads to highly generalized mean scores and higher MAEs. Our findings emphasise the significant potential of early-fusion for accurate and fair applications, even in the presence of demographic biases, compared to late-fusion. Future research could explore alternative fusion strategies and incorporate modality-related fairness constraints to improve fairness. For code and additional insights, visit: https://github.com/Swati17293/Multimodal-AI-Based-Recruitment-FairCVdb

Text-to-image generation requires large amount of training data to synthesizing high-quality images. For augmenting training data, previous methods rely on data interpolations like cropping, flipping, and mixing up, which fail to introduce new information and yield only marginal improvements. In this paper, we propose a new data augmentation method for text-to-image generation using linear extrapolation. Specifically, we apply linear extrapolation only on text feature, and new image data are retrieved from the internet by search engines. For the reliability of new text-image pairs, we design two outlier detectors to purify retrieved images. Based on extrapolation, we construct training samples dozens of times larger than the original dataset, resulting in a significant improvement in text-to-image performance. Moreover, we propose a NULL-guidance to refine score estimation, and apply recurrent affine transformation to fuse text information. Our model achieves FID scores of 7.91, 9.52 and 5.00 on the CUB, Oxford and COCO datasets. The code and data will be available on GitHub (https://github.com/senmaoy/RAT-Diffusion).

We present SURE-Score: an approach for learning score-based generative models using training samples corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. When a large training set of clean samples is available, solving inverse problems via score-based (diffusion) generative models trained on the underlying fully-sampled data distribution has recently been shown to outperform end-to-end supervised deep learning. In practice, such a large collection of training data may be prohibitively expensive to acquire in the first place. In this work, we present an approach for approximately learning a score-based generative model of the clean distribution, from noisy training data. We formulate and justify a novel loss function that leverages Stein's unbiased risk estimate to jointly denoise the data and learn the score function via denoising score matching, while using only the noisy samples. We demonstrate the generality of SURE-Score by learning priors and applying posterior sampling to ill-posed inverse problems in two practical applications from different domains: compressive wireless multiple-input multiple-output channel estimation and accelerated 2D multi-coil magnetic resonance imaging reconstruction, where we demonstrate competitive reconstruction performance when learning at signal-to-noise ratio values of 0 and 10 dB, respectively.

Reward models are a bottleneck for reinforcement learning in embodied AI. Long-horizon robotic manipulation requires scalable vision feedback beyond handcrafted rewards or task-specific annotations. Existing open-source VLM reward judges like RoboReward adopt simple 1--5 trajectory progress scoring, lacking pairwise preferences for RLHF, DPO and Bradley-Terry frameworks, while failing to optimize video scene understanding. Augmenting RoboReward with pairwise comparison and video-QA supervision causes inconsistency between pairwise preferences and pointwise scores, introducing training noise and hurting downstream performance---an issue aggregation methods such as TrustJudge cannot resolve. To address this, we propose TrustRoboReward, a multi-paradigm reward modeling framework equipped with Preference-Ordered Isotonic Score Editing (POISE). We construct a unified four-paradigm dataset with trajectory progress scoring (Score-A), video-QA answer quality scoring (Score-B), and their pairwise counterparts (Pair-A, Pair-B). Pairwise labels align better with human judgment than pointwise scores, inspiring us to calibrate pointwise scores to avoid score-pair reversals against pairwise preferences. POISE rectifies pointwise scores and eliminates cross-paradigm reversal conflicts unresolved by TrustJudge. Theoretically, POISE reduces score-pair reversal conflicts from 20.15% to 0%, whereas TrustJudge retains 20.46% conflicts on the same corpus. Evaluated on our benchmark, Qwen3-VL-4B trained with POISE achieves an overall reward score of 77.96%, nearly matching GPT-5-mini (78.09%, gap 0.13%) and outperforming the strongest RoboReward-4B baseline by 10.13%. It also lifts test-time score-pair consistency to 71.90%, exceeding RoboReward-4B (57.26%) and GPT-5-mini (68.09%). Integrating TrustJudge aggregation during inference boosts the overall score to 78.57%, surpassing the GPT-5-mini teacher model.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

Diffusion models have been widely used for conditional data cross-modal generation tasks such as text-to-image and text-to-video. However, state-of-the-art models still fail to align the generated visual concepts with high-level semantics in a language such as object count, spatial relationship, etc. We approach this problem from a multimodal data fusion perspective and investigate how different fusion strategies can affect vision-language alignment. We discover that compared to the widely used early fusion of conditioning text in a pretrained image feature space, a specially designed intermediate fusion can: (i) boost text-to-image alignment with improved generation quality and (ii) improve training and inference efficiency by reducing low-rank text-to-image attention calculations. We perform experiments using a text-to-image generation task on the MS-COCO dataset. We compare our intermediate fusion mechanism with the classic early fusion mechanism on two common conditioning methods on a U-shaped ViT backbone. Our intermediate fusion model achieves a higher CLIP Score and lower FID, with 20% reduced FLOPs, and 50% increased training speed compared to a strong U-ViT baseline with an early fusion.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Obtaining high-quality generations in modern LLMs has largely been framed as a selection problem: identifying a single winning generation from a diverse pool of N samples, the Best-of-N (BoN). Yet, this approach is inherently zero-sum, discarding diverse and potentially useful information from the pool. Instead, we explore a collaborative setup, where all candidates can potentially contribute to the final winning generation. To this end, we propose Fusion-of-N (FusioN): a method that uses a general LLM judge to synthesize the most informative elements of each sample into a single final answer. We compare FusioN to BoN in two settings, (i) test-time scaling, where we sample and aggregate from a single model at test-time (ii) synthetic data generation, where we fuse samples from a pool of diverse teachers to improve a student model. We extensively benchmark both setups across 11 languages, 3 diverse tasks and varying model scales. Across the bench, FusioN consistently outperforms BoN showing versatility and robustness both in test-time scaling and in downstream gains from synthetic data generation. We also perform extensive analysis on FusioN, where it shows surprising strengths and robustness under challenging settings. These results show that we should shift how we think about evaluating and utilizing LLM generations from a monolithic measure of quality, to embracing their polylithic nature. This shift allows us to integrate diverse strengths, unlock latent potential, and achieve improvements that were previously inaccessible through selection alone.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) on language modeling and emergent capabilities make them a promising reference-free evaluator of natural language generation quality, and a competent alternative to human evaluation. However, hindered by the closed-source or high computational demand to host and tune, there is a lack of practice to further calibrate an off-the-shelf LLM-based evaluator towards better human alignment. In this work, we propose AutoCalibrate, a multi-stage, gradient-free approach to automatically calibrate and align an LLM-based evaluator toward human preference. Instead of explicitly modeling human preferences, we first implicitly encompass them within a set of human labels. Then, an initial set of scoring criteria is drafted by the language model itself, leveraging in-context learning on different few-shot examples. To further calibrate this set of criteria, we select the best performers and re-draft them with self-refinement. Our experiments on multiple text quality evaluation datasets illustrate a significant improvement in correlation with expert evaluation through calibration. Our comprehensive qualitative analysis conveys insightful intuitions and observations on the essence of effective scoring criteria.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences has been recognized as the key to improving LLMs' interaction quality. However, in this pluralistic world, human preferences can be diversified due to annotators' different tastes, which hinders the effectiveness of LLM alignment methods. This paper presents the first quantitative analysis of commonly used human feedback datasets to investigate the impact of diversified preferences on reward modeling. Our analysis reveals a correlation between the calibration performance of reward models (RMs) and the alignment performance of LLMs. We find that diversified preference data negatively affect the calibration performance of RMs on human-shared preferences, such as Harmless\&Helpful, thereby impairing the alignment performance of LLMs. To address the ineffectiveness, we propose a novel Multi-Objective Reward learning method (MORE) to enhance the calibration performance of RMs on shared preferences. We validate our findings by experiments on three models and five human preference datasets. Our method significantly improves the prediction calibration of RMs, leading to better alignment of the Alpaca-7B model with Harmless\&Helpful preferences. Furthermore, the connection between reward calibration and preference alignment performance suggests that calibration error can be adopted as a key metric for evaluating RMs. The open-source code and data are available at https://github.com/dunzeng/MORE.

Scaling pre-training, post-training, and test-time compute have become the central paradigms for improving the capabilities of LLMs. In this work, we identify verification, the ability to determine the correctness of a solution, as a new scaling axis. To unlock this and demonstrate its effectiveness, we introduce LLM-as-a-Verifier, a general-purpose verification framework that provides fine-grained feedback for agentic tasks without requiring additional training. Unlike standard LM judges that prompt LLMs to produce discrete scores for candidate solutions, LLM-as-a-Verifier computes the expectation over the distribution of scoring token logits to generate continuous scores. This probabilistic formulation enables verification to scale along multiple dimensions: (1) score granularity, (2) repeated evaluation, and (3) criteria decomposition. In particular, we show that scaling the scoring granularity leads to better separation between positive and negative solutions, resulting in more calibrated comparisons. Moreover, scaling repeated evaluation and criteria decomposition consistently lead to additional gains in verification accuracy through variance and complexity reduction. We further introduce a cost-efficient ranking algorithm for selecting the best solution among candidates using the verifier's continuous scores. LLM-as-a-Verifier achieves state-of-the-art performance on Terminal-Bench V2 (86.5%), SWE-Bench Verified (78.2%), RoboRewardBench (87.4%), and MedAgentBench (73.3%). Beyond verification, the fine-grained signals from LLM-as-a-Verifier can also serve as a proxy for estimating task progress. We build an extension for Claude Code, enabling developers to monitor and improve their own agentic systems. Finally, we show that LLM-as-a-Verifier can provide dense feedback for RL, improving the sample efficiency of SAC and GRPO on robotics and mathematical reasoning benchmarks.

Foundation models rely on large-scale web-crawled datasets, which frequently contain noisy data, biases, and irrelevant content. Existing data selection techniques typically use human heuristics, downstream evaluation datasets, or specialized scoring models, and can overlook samples' utility in the training process. Instead, we propose a new approach, Mimic Score, a data quality metric that uses a pretrained reference model as a guide to assess the usefulness of data samples for training a new model. It relies on the alignment between the gradient of the new model parameters and the vector pointing toward the reference model in weight space. Samples that misalign with this direction are considered low-value and can be filtered out. Motivated by the Mimic score, we develop Grad-Mimic, a data selection framework that identifies and prioritizes useful samples, automating the selection process to create effective filters. Empirically, using Mimic scores to guide model training results in consistent performance gains across six image datasets and enhances the performance of CLIP models. Moreover, Mimic scores and their associated filters improve upon existing filtering methods and offer accurate estimation of dataset quality.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

Using a language model to score or rank candidate responses has become a scalable alternative to human evaluation in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) pipelines, benchmarking, and application layer evaluations. However, output reliability depends heavily on prompting and aggregation strategy. We present an empirical investigation of four drop-in techniques -- ensemble scoring, task-specific criteria injection, calibration context, and adaptive model escalation -- for improving LLM judge accuracy on RewardBench 2, with a unifying lens of noise control on the stochastic judge: ensembling as Monte Carlo averaging over per-call noise, criteria injection as between-response discrimination sharpening, and per-response score variance as an uncertainty signal. Ensemble scoring and task-specific criteria injection (the latter virtually cost free) together reach up to 85.8% accuracy, +13.5pp over baseline. Calibration context and adaptive model escalation also improve over baseline but are dominated by criteria + ensembling on the cost-accuracy Pareto frontier. Small models benefit disproportionately from ensembling, making high-accuracy LLM judges accessible at low cost. We show that these techniques generalise across model providers, evaluating on both OpenAI GPT and Anthropic Claude families.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great capabilities in solving a wide range of tasks in a resource-efficient manner through prompting, which does not require task-specific training, but suffers from performance fluctuation when there are multiple prompt candidates. Previous works have introduced gradient-free probability-based prompt selection methods that aim to choose the optimal prompt among the candidates for a given task but fail to provide a comprehensive and fair comparison between each other. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to interpret and evaluate the existing probability-based prompt selection methods by performing extensive experiments on 13 common NLP tasks. We find that all existing methods can be unified into some variant of the method that maximizes the mutual information between the input and the corresponding model output (denoted as MI). Using the finding, we develop several variants of MI and increases the effectiveness of the best prompt selection method from 87.79% to 94.98%, measured as the ratio of the performance of the selected prompt to that of the optimal oracle prompt. Furthermore, we propose a novel calibration method called Calibration by Marginalization (CBM) that is orthogonal to existing methods and helps increase the prompt selection effectiveness of the best method by 99.44%. The code and datasets used in our work will be released at https://github.com/soheeyang/unified-prompt-selection.

Evaluation of text-to-music systems is constrained by the cost and availability of collecting experts for assessment. AudioMOS 2025 Challenge track 1 is created to automatically predict music impression (MI) as well as text alignment (TA) between the prompt and the generated musical piece. This paper reports our winning system, which uses a dual-branch architecture with pre-trained MuQ and RoBERTa models as audio and text encoders. A cross-attention mechanism fuses the audio and text representations. For training, we reframe the MI and TA prediction as a classification task. To incorporate the ordinal nature of MOS scores, one-hot labels are converted to a soft distribution using a Gaussian kernel. On the official test set, a single model trained with this method achieves a system-level Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCC) of 0.991 for MI and 0.952 for TA, corresponding to a relative improvement of 21.21\% in MI SRCC and 31.47\% in TA SRCC over the challenge baseline.

Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-i.i.d Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-i.i.d Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

The recent advancements in text-to-3D generation mark a significant milestone in generative models, unlocking new possibilities for creating imaginative 3D assets across various real-world scenarios. While recent advancements in text-to-3D generation have shown promise, they often fall short in rendering detailed and high-quality 3D models. This problem is especially prevalent as many methods base themselves on Score Distillation Sampling (SDS). This paper identifies a notable deficiency in SDS, that it brings inconsistent and low-quality updating direction for the 3D model, causing the over-smoothing effect. To address this, we propose a novel approach called Interval Score Matching (ISM). ISM employs deterministic diffusing trajectories and utilizes interval-based score matching to counteract over-smoothing. Furthermore, we incorporate 3D Gaussian Splatting into our text-to-3D generation pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our model largely outperforms the state-of-the-art in quality and training efficiency.

As LLM benchmarks saturate, the evaluation community has pursued two strategies to increase difficulty: escalating knowledge demands (GPQA, HLE) or removing knowledge entirely in favor of abstract reasoning (ARC-AGI). The first conflates memorization with capability; the second divorces reasoning from the practical contexts in which it matters. We take a different approach. The Grounded Integration Measure (GIM) is a benchmark of 820 original problems (615 public, 205 private) where difficulty comes from integration; individual problems require coordinating multiple cognitive operations (constraint satisfaction, state tracking, epistemic vigilance, audience calibration) over broadly accessible knowledge, so that reasoning stays grounded in realistic tasks without being gated on specialized expertise. Each problem is an original expert-authored composition, majority with rubric-decomposed scoring (median 6 independently judged criteria). A balanced public--private split provides built-in contamination diagnostic. We calibrate a continuous response 2-parameter logistic (2PL) IRT model over >200k prompt-response pairs across 28 models, producing robust ability estimates that correctly order test-configurations even when raw accuracy is distorted by errors or missing data, addressing a common challenge in benchmark reporting. Using this framework, we present a comprehensive leaderboard spanning 22 models and 47 test-configurations (unique model, thinking-level pairs), and conduct what is to our knowledge the most extensive published study of how test-time compute trades off against model capability on a fixed benchmark: 11 models swept across 35 test-configurations. We observe that within-family configuration choices, such as thinking budget and quantization, matter as much as model selection. We release the evaluation framework, calibrated IRT parameters, and all public problems.

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild. Existing works mostly rely on information from either the outputs or the extracted features of neural networks to estimate a score that correlates with the ground-truth test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate -- both empirically and theoretically -- how the information provided by the gradients can be predictive of the ground-truth test accuracy even under distribution shifts. More specifically, we use the norm of classification-layer gradients, backpropagated from the cross-entropy loss after only one gradient step over test data. Our intuition is that these gradients should be of higher magnitude when the model generalizes poorly. We provide the theoretical insights behind our approach and the key ingredients that ensure its empirical success. Extensive experiments conducted with various architectures on diverse distribution shifts demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/Renchunzi-Xie/GdScore

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Common document ranking pipelines in search systems are cascade systems that involve multiple ranking layers to integrate different information step-by-step. In this paper, we propose a novel re-ranker Fusion-in-T5 (FiT5), which integrates text matching information, ranking features, and global document information into one single unified model via templated-based input and global attention. Experiments on passage ranking benchmarks MS MARCO and TREC DL show that FiT5, as one single model, significantly improves ranking performance over complex cascade pipelines. Analysis finds that through attention fusion, FiT5 jointly utilizes various forms of ranking information via gradually attending to related documents and ranking features, and improves the detection of subtle nuances. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/OpenMatch/FiT5.

NASA and its data centers hold thousands of geoscience datasets and tools like Worldview, Giovanni, the Science Discovery Engine, and Harmony. Finding the right one is hard even for domain experts. We present an agentic search system, deployed as a public service for the geoscience community, that takes a natural-language research query and returns the matching datasets and tools. We demonstrate that, in the era of large language models, the latent value of knowledge graphs (KGs) can be substantially amplified through agentic search. From the NASA Earth Observation Knowledge Graph (NASA EO-KG) we derive NASA-EO-Bench, an open benchmark of 47k query-dataset pairs (21k task-based queries). A neural scorer fine-tuned on NASA-EO-Bench beats cosine and BM25 baselines. Further combining it with BM25 via score fusion raises both Recall@10 (R@10) and MRR by over 5x. On top of this supervised pipeline, we add a zero-shot agentic reranking stage that, without any additional training, lifts MRR by 28% on a stratified N=200 subset, showing that LLM reasoning is complementary to supervised retrieval.

We present PREMISE (PREdict with Matching ScorEs), a new architecture for the matching-based learning in the multimodal fields for the multimodal review helpfulness (MRHP) task. Distinct to previous fusion-based methods which obtains multimodal representations via cross-modal attention for downstream tasks, PREMISE computes the multi-scale and multi-field representations, filters duplicated semantics, and then obtained a set of matching scores as feature vectors for the downstream recommendation task. This new architecture significantly boosts the performance for such multimodal tasks whose context matching content are highly correlated to the targets of that task, compared to the state-of-the-art fusion-based methods. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets show that PREMISE achieves promising performance with less computational cost.

Merging separately trained LoRA adapters is a practical alternative to joint multi-task training, but it often hurts performance. Existing methods usually treat the LoRA update ΔW = BA as a single object and do not distinguish the two LoRA matrices. We show that the main source of LoRA merge interference comes from the output-side matrix B. Across tasks, B repeatedly uses a small set of shared directions, while A remains much more task-specific. As a result, the merged adapter overemphasizes these shared directions, and task-specific information is lost. We propose Pico (Pre-merge interference calibration in output-space), a data-free method that calibrates B before merge by downscaling over-shared directions and then rescaling the merged update. Pico plugs directly into existing merging methods such as Task Arithmetic, TIES, and TSV-M. Across eight different benchmarks from math, coding, finance, and medical domains, Pico improves average accuracy by 3.4-8.3 points over the corresponding base method and achieves the best overall average performance. Pico also enables merged adapters to outperform the LoRA trained with all task data. These results show that LoRA merging works better when the two LoRA matrices are treated separately.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

The "alignment tax" of post-training is typically framed as a drop in task accuracy. We show it also involves a severe loss of calibration, making models overconfident, less reliable, and model outputs less diverse. We show that this trade-off can be navigated effectively via a simple post-hoc intervention: interpolating between a model's weights before and after alignment. Crucially, this is not a strict trade-off. We find that the process consistently reveals Pareto-optimal interpolations - models that improve accuracy beyond both parents while substantially recovering the calibration lost during alignment. Our work demonstrates that simple model merging provides a computationally efficient method for mitigating the full scope of the alignment tax, yielding models that are more capable and more reliable.

Recently, increasing attention has been drawn to the internal mechanisms of convolutional neural networks, and the reason why the network makes specific decisions. In this paper, we develop a novel post-hoc visual explanation method called Score-CAM based on class activation mapping. Unlike previous class activation mapping based approaches, Score-CAM gets rid of the dependence on gradients by obtaining the weight of each activation map through its forward passing score on target class, the final result is obtained by a linear combination of weights and activation maps. We demonstrate that Score-CAM achieves better visual performance and fairness for interpreting the decision making process. Our approach outperforms previous methods on both recognition and localization tasks, it also passes the sanity check. We also indicate its application as debugging tools. Official code has been released.

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model prediction probabilities to bin the data and evaluate calibration error. We propose a more generalized definition of calibration error called Partitioned Calibration Error (PCE), revealing that the key difference among these calibration error metrics lies in how the data space is partitioned. We put forth an intuitive proposition that an accurate model should be calibrated across any partition, suggesting that the input space partitioning can extend beyond just the partitioning of prediction probabilities, and include partitions directly related to the input. Through semantic-related partitioning functions, we demonstrate that the relationship between model accuracy and calibration lies in the granularity of the partitioning function. This highlights the importance of partitioning criteria for training a calibrated and accurate model. To validate the aforementioned analysis, we propose a method that involves jointly learning a semantic aware grouping function based on deep model features and logits to partition the data space into subsets. Subsequently, a separate calibration function is learned for each subset. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves significant performance improvements across multiple datasets and network architectures, thus highlighting the importance of the partitioning function for calibration.

Multi-modal generative document parsing systems challenge traditional evaluation: unlike deterministic OCR or layout models, they often produce semantically correct yet structurally divergent outputs. Conventional metrics-CER, WER, IoU, or TEDS-misclassify such diversity as error, penalizing valid interpretations and obscuring system behavior. We introduce SCORE (Structural and COntent Robust Evaluation), an interpretation-agnostic framework that integrates (i) adjusted edit distance for robust content fidelity, (ii) token-level diagnostics to distinguish hallucinations from omissions, (iii) table evaluation with spatial tolerance and semantic alignment, and (iv) hierarchy-aware consistency checks. Together, these dimensions enable evaluation that embraces representational diversity while enforcing semantic rigor. Across 1,114 pages spanning a holistic benchmark and a field dataset, SCORE consistently revealed cross-dataset performance patterns missed by standard metrics. In 2-5% of pages with ambiguous table structures, traditional metrics penalized systems by 12-25% on average, leading to distorted rankings. SCORE corrected these cases, recovering equivalence between alternative but valid interpretations. Moreover, by normalizing generative outputs into a format-agnostic representation, SCORE reproduces traditional scores (e.g., table F1 up to 0.93) without requiring object-detection pipelines, demonstrating that generative parsing alone suffices for comprehensive evaluation. By exposing how interpretive diversity impacts evaluation outcomes and providing multi-dimensional, interpretable diagnostics, SCORE establishes foundational principles for semantically grounded, fair, and practical benchmarking of modern document parsing systems.

In legal decisions, split votes (SV) occur when judges cannot reach a unanimous decision, posing a difficulty for lawyers who must navigate diverse legal arguments and opinions. In high-stakes domains, understanding the alignment of perceived difficulty between humans and AI systems is crucial to build trust. However, existing NLP calibration methods focus on a classifier's awareness of predictive performance, measured against the human majority class, overlooking inherent human label variation (HLV). This paper explores split votes as naturally observable human disagreement and value pluralism. We collect judges' vote distributions from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and present SV-ECHR, a case outcome classification (COC) dataset with SV information. We build a taxonomy of disagreement with SV-specific subcategories. We further assess the alignment of perceived difficulty between models and humans, as well as confidence- and human-calibration of COC models. We observe limited alignment with the judge vote distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic exploration of calibration to human judgements in legal NLP. Our study underscores the necessity for further research on measuring and enhancing model calibration considering HLV in legal decision tasks.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the Overconfidence Phenomenon in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce TH-Score, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose LLM-as-a-Fuser, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

In this study, we dive deep into the inconsistency of pseudo targets in semi-supervised object detection (SSOD). Our core observation is that the oscillating pseudo-targets undermine the training of an accurate detector. It injects noise into the student's training, leading to severe overfitting problems. Therefore, we propose a systematic solution, termed ConsistentTeacher, to reduce the inconsistency. First, adaptive anchor assignment~(ASA) substitutes the static IoU-based strategy, which enables the student network to be resistant to noisy pseudo-bounding boxes. Then we calibrate the subtask predictions by designing a 3D feature alignment module~(FAM-3D). It allows each classification feature to adaptively query the optimal feature vector for the regression task at arbitrary scales and locations. Lastly, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) dynamically revises the score threshold of pseudo-bboxes, which stabilizes the number of ground truths at an early stage and remedies the unreliable supervision signal during training. ConsistentTeacher provides strong results on a large range of SSOD evaluations. It achieves 40.0 mAP with ResNet-50 backbone given only 10% of annotated MS-COCO data, which surpasses previous baselines using pseudo labels by around 3 mAP. When trained on fully annotated MS-COCO with additional unlabeled data, the performance further increases to 47.7 mAP. Our code is available at https://github.com/Adamdad/ConsistentTeacher.

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across diverse tasks, their epistemic calibration remains poorly understood. We introduce KalshiBench, a benchmark of 300 prediction market questions from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, with verifiable real-world outcomes occurring after model training cutoffs. Unlike traditional benchmarks measuring accuracy on static knowledge, KalshiBench evaluates whether models can appropriately quantify uncertainty about genuinely unknown future events. We evaluate five frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.5, GPT-5.2, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen3-235B, and Kimi-K2 -- and find systematic overconfidence across all models. Even the best-calibrated model (Claude Opus 4.5, ECE=0.120) shows substantial calibration errors, while reasoning-enhanced models like GPT-5.2-XHigh exhibit worse calibration (ECE=0.395) despite comparable accuracy. Critically, only one model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score, indicating most models perform worse than simply predicting base rates. Our findings suggest that scaling and enhanced reasoning do not automatically confer calibration benefits, highlighting epistemic calibration as a distinct capability requiring targeted development.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

LLM-based listwise passage reranking has attracted attention for its effectiveness in ranking candidate passages. However, these models suffer from positional bias, where passages positioned towards the end of the input are less likely to be moved to top positions in the ranking. We hypothesize that there are two primary sources of positional bias: (1) architectural bias inherent in LLMs and (2) the imbalanced positioning of relevant documents. To address this, we propose DebiasFirst, a method that integrates positional calibration and position-aware data augmentation during fine-tuning. Positional calibration uses inverse propensity scoring to adjust for positional bias by re-weighting the contributions of different positions in the loss function when training. Position-aware augmentation augments training data to ensure that each passage appears equally across varied positions in the input list. This approach markedly enhances both effectiveness and robustness to the original ranking across diverse first-stage retrievers, reducing the dependence of NDCG@10 performance on the position of relevant documents. DebiasFirst also complements the inference-stage debiasing methods, offering a practical solution for mitigating positional bias in reranking.

Depression and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often co-occur with connected symptoms, complicating automated assessment, which is often binary and disorder specific. Clinically useful diagnosis needs severity aware cross disorder estimates and decision support explanations. Our unified tri modal affective severity framework synchronizes and fuses interview text with sentence level transformer embeddings, audio with log Mel statistics with deltas, and facial signals with action units, gaze, head and pose descriptors to output graded severities for diagnosing both depression (PHQ-8; 5 classes) and PTSD (3 classes). Standardized features are fused via a calibrated late fusion classifier, yielding per disorder probabilities and feature-level attributions. This severity aware tri-modal affective fusion approach is demoed on multi disorder concurrent depression and PTSD assessment. Stratified cross validation on DAIC derived corpora outperforms unimodal/ablation baselines. The fused model matches the strongest unimodal baseline on accuracy and weighted F1, while improving decision curve utility and robustness under noisy or missing modalities. For PTSD specifically, fusion reduces regression error and improves class concordance. Errors cluster between adjacent severities; extreme classes are identified reliably. Ablations show text contributes most to depression severity, audio and facial cues are critical for PTSD, whereas attributions align with linguistic and behavioral markers. Our approach offers reproducible evaluation and clinician in the loop support for affective clinical decision making.

Industrial quality inspection plays a critical role in modern manufacturing by identifying defective products during production. While single-modality approaches using either 3D point clouds or 2D RGB images suffer from information incompleteness, multimodal anomaly detection offers promise through the complementary fusion of crossmodal data. However, existing methods face challenges in effectively integrating unimodal results and improving discriminative power. To address these limitations, we first reinterpret memory bank-based anomaly scores in single modalities as isotropic Euclidean distances in local feature spaces. Dynamically evolving from Euclidean metrics, we propose a novel Geometry-Guided Score Fusion (G^{2}SF) framework that progressively learns an anisotropic local distance metric as a unified score for the fusion task. Through a geometric encoding operator, a novel Local Scale Prediction Network (LSPN) is proposed to predict direction-aware scaling factors that characterize first-order local feature distributions, thereby enhancing discrimination between normal and anomalous patterns. Additionally, we develop specialized loss functions and score aggregation strategy from geometric priors to ensure both metric generalization and efficacy. Comprehensive evaluations on the MVTec-3D AD and Eyecandies datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art detection performance of our method, and detailed ablation analysis validates each component's contribution. Our code is available at https://github.com/ctaoaa/G2SF.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Camera calibration involves estimating camera parameters to infer geometric features from captured sequences, which is crucial for computer vision and robotics. However, conventional calibration is laborious and requires dedicated collection. Recent efforts show that learning-based solutions have the potential to be used in place of the repeatability works of manual calibrations. Among these solutions, various learning strategies, networks, geometric priors, and datasets have been investigated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of learning-based camera calibration techniques, by analyzing their strengths and limitations. Our main calibration categories include the standard pinhole camera model, distortion camera model, cross-view model, and cross-sensor model, following the research trend and extended applications. As there is no unified benchmark in this community, we collect a holistic calibration dataset that can serve as a public platform to evaluate the generalization of existing methods. It comprises both synthetic and real-world data, with images and videos captured by different cameras in diverse scenes. Toward the end of this paper, we discuss the challenges and provide further research directions. To our knowledge, this is the first survey for the learning-based camera calibration (spanned 10 years). The summarized methods, datasets, and benchmarks are available and will be regularly updated at https://github.com/KangLiao929/Awesome-Deep-Camera-Calibration.

Model merging, a method that combines the parameters and embeddings of multiple fine-tuned large language models (LLMs), offers a promising approach to enhance model performance across various tasks while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper introduces Activation-Informed Merging (AIM), a technique that integrates the information from the activation space of LLMs into the merging process to improve performance and robustness. AIM is designed as a flexible, complementary solution that is applicable to any existing merging method. It aims to preserve critical weights from the base model, drawing on principles from continual learning~(CL) and model compression. Utilizing a task-agnostic calibration set, AIM selectively prioritizes essential weights during merging. We empirically demonstrate that AIM significantly enhances the performance of merged models across multiple benchmarks. Our findings suggest that considering the activation-space information can provide substantial advancements in the model merging strategies for LLMs with up to 40\% increase in benchmark performance.

Semantic caching cuts LLM inference costs by serving a cached response to semantically similar queries. Standard practice evaluates these systems using PR-AUC, a metric that only measures how well scores rank and ignores whether they are usable at a fixed threshold. We show this mismatch leads to systematically poor deployment choices, as models with the highest PR-AUC are often the worst in operation. We introduce Precision-Cache Hit Ratio (P-CHR) AUC, a cache-aware metric that measures precision across cache utilization levels, and Calibration Retention Rate (CRR), which captures how much offline ranking quality survives at deployment. We decompose the operational gap between offline and deployed quality into a recoverable calibration component and an irreducible structural component fixed by the dataset's positive rate. Our experiments show that the calibration gap is governed by the training objective rather than data scale, and post-hoc calibration only partially closes it. Ultimately, model selection for semantic caching is a calibration problem, not a ranking one, and measuring it is the first step to closing the gap.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

While fine-tuning pretrained models has become common practice, these models often underperform outside their specific domains. Recently developed model merging techniques enable the direct integration of multiple models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, into a single model. This strategy promotes multitasking capabilities without requiring retraining on the original datasets. However, existing methods fall short in addressing potential conflicts and complex correlations between tasks, especially in parameter-level adjustments, posing a challenge in effectively balancing parameter competition across various tasks. This paper introduces an innovative technique named PCB-Merging (Parameter Competition Balancing), a lightweight and training-free technique that adjusts the coefficients of each parameter for effective model merging. PCB-Merging employs intra-balancing to gauge parameter significance within individual tasks and inter-balancing to assess parameter similarities across different tasks. Parameters with low importance scores are dropped, and the remaining ones are rescaled to form the final merged model. We assessed our approach in diverse merging scenarios, including cross-task, cross-domain, and cross-training configurations, as well as out-of-domain generalization. The experimental results reveal that our approach achieves substantial performance enhancements across multiple modalities, domains, model sizes, number of tasks, fine-tuning forms, and large language models, outperforming existing model merging methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/pcb-merging.

This study addresses the issue of fusing infrared and visible images that appear differently for object detection. Aiming at generating an image of high visual quality, previous approaches discover commons underlying the two modalities and fuse upon the common space either by iterative optimization or deep networks. These approaches neglect that modality differences implying the complementary information are extremely important for both fusion and subsequent detection task. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization formulation for the joint problem of fusion and detection, and then unrolls to a target-aware Dual Adversarial Learning (TarDAL) network for fusion and a commonly used detection network. The fusion network with one generator and dual discriminators seeks commons while learning from differences, which preserves structural information of targets from the infrared and textural details from the visible. Furthermore, we build a synchronized imaging system with calibrated infrared and optical sensors, and collect currently the most comprehensive benchmark covering a wide range of scenarios. Extensive experiments on several public datasets and our benchmark demonstrate that our method outputs not only visually appealing fusion but also higher detection mAP than the state-of-the-art approaches.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

Reconciling platform revenue with user experience in LLM advertising motivates a data-centric foundation. We introduce NaiAD, the first comprehensive dataset for LLM-native advertising comprising 58,999 carefully constructed ad-embedded responses paired with user queries. NaiAD is organized around theoretically grounded evaluation metrics that separately and comprehensively capture user and commercial utility. To mitigate the dimensional collinearity of aligned LLMs, we propose a decoupled generation pipeline that produces structurally diverse samples, ranging from responses that explicitly disentangle stakeholder utilities to responses that are uniformly strong or weak across dimensions. We further provide score labels calibrated by a Variance-Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (VC-PPI) framework, aligning automated scoring with human annotations. Mechanistic analyses reveal that successful ad integration relies on reasoning paths that cluster into four distinct semantic strategies. Models leveraging NaiAD internalize these strategies to simultaneously improve user and commercial utility, while enabling independent control over these distinct objectives via in-context learning. Together, these results position NaiAD as a foundational infrastructure for developing future LLM-native ad systems.

Automatic recognition of ambivalence and hesitancy is challenging because these states may be expressed through inconsistent linguistic, acoustic, facial, and contextual patterns, while top-performing systems often rely on computationally expensive ensembles. We present a single text-centered multimodal approach for video-level ambivalence and hesitancy recognition for the 11th Affective & Behavior Analysis in-the-Wild (ABAW) Challenge. The proposed approach combines linguistic, acoustic, facial, and scene features using text-centered multimodal fusion model. Text Residual Fusion treats text as the anchor modality and applies gated residual adjustments based on the other modalities. Experiments on the Behavioural Ambivalence/Hesitancy (BAH) corpus confirm that text is the strongest unimodal modality. The Text Residual Fusion model achieves an average Macro F1-score (MF1) of 75.14% across the Development and Public Test subsets. On the Private Test subset, it reaches an MF1 of 78.24%, outperforming the text model by 4.03%. These results demonstrate that complementary multimodal information can improve recognition performance without requiring a large model ensemble.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) is a widely used paradigm for accelerating inference in few-step video diffusion models. However, DMD-style video distillation faces two coupled challenges: the fake score must track a continuously evolving generator, making training costly when frequent updates are required, while reverse-KL-style matching can be mode-seeking and conservative for preserving strong motion dynamics. To address these issues, we propose Score Gradient Matching Distillation (SGMD). SGMD adopts a fake-score perspective by directly optimizing the fake score toward the teacher, while using teacher stop-gradient Fisher as a stable distribution-matching objective. We provide a gradient analysis that motivates this objective choice under ideal tracking. Building on this, SGMD introduces a pair of dual potentials: negative-residual (NR) for outer-loop correction and residual-contraction (RC) for inner-loop tracking. Empirically, compared to DMD2, SGMD achieves an approximately sim 3times training speedup and substantially improves motion dynamics for 4-step distilled models while preserving temporal consistency. A human study confirms that SGMD is preferred in motion quality and overall preference, while visual quality and text alignment remain comparable. Code is available at https://github.com/ModelTC/LightX2V.

In medical imaging, vision-language models face a critical duality: pretrained networks offer broad robustness but lack subtle, modality-specific characteristics, while fine-tuned expert models achieve high in-distribution accuracy yet falter under modality shift. Existing model-merging techniques, designed for natural-image benchmarks, are simple and efficient but fail to deliver consistent gains across diverse medical modalities; their static interpolation limits reliability in varied clinical tasks. To address this, we introduce Test-Time Task adaptive merging (T^3), a backpropagation-free framework that computes per-sample interpolation coefficients via the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the two models' output distributions. T^3 dynamically preserves local precision when models agree and defers to generalist robustness under drift. To overcome the inference costs of sample-wise merging, we further propose a batch-wise extension, T^3_B, that computes a merging coefficient across a batch of samples, dramatically reducing computational bottleneck. Recognizing the lack of a standardized medical-merging benchmark, we present a rigorous cross-evaluation protocol spanning in-domain, base-to-novel, and corruptions across four modalities. Empirically, T^3 sets new state-of-the-art in Top-1 accuracy and error reduction, outperforming strong baselines while maintaining efficiency, paving the way for adaptive MVLM deployment in clinical settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/Razaimam45/TCube.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

LiDAR and camera are two important sensors for 3D object detection in autonomous driving. Despite the increasing popularity of sensor fusion in this field, the robustness against inferior image conditions, e.g., bad illumination and sensor misalignment, is under-explored. Existing fusion methods are easily affected by such conditions, mainly due to a hard association of LiDAR points and image pixels, established by calibration matrices. We propose TransFusion, a robust solution to LiDAR-camera fusion with a soft-association mechanism to handle inferior image conditions. Specifically, our TransFusion consists of convolutional backbones and a detection head based on a transformer decoder. The first layer of the decoder predicts initial bounding boxes from a LiDAR point cloud using a sparse set of object queries, and its second decoder layer adaptively fuses the object queries with useful image features, leveraging both spatial and contextual relationships. The attention mechanism of the transformer enables our model to adaptively determine where and what information should be taken from the image, leading to a robust and effective fusion strategy. We additionally design an image-guided query initialization strategy to deal with objects that are difficult to detect in point clouds. TransFusion achieves state-of-the-art performance on large-scale datasets. We provide extensive experiments to demonstrate its robustness against degenerated image quality and calibration errors. We also extend the proposed method to the 3D tracking task and achieve the 1st place in the leaderboard of nuScenes tracking, showing its effectiveness and generalization capability.

Tracking often uses a multi-stage pipeline of feature extraction, target information integration, and bounding box estimation. To simplify this pipeline and unify the process of feature extraction and target information integration, we present a compact tracking framework, termed as MixFormer, built upon transformers. Our core design is to utilize the flexibility of attention operations, and propose a Mixed Attention Module (MAM) for simultaneous feature extraction and target information integration. This synchronous modeling scheme allows to extract target-specific discriminative features and perform extensive communication between target and search area. Based on MAM, we build our MixFormer tracking framework simply by stacking multiple MAMs with progressive patch embedding and placing a localization head on top. In addition, to handle multiple target templates during online tracking, we devise an asymmetric attention scheme in MAM to reduce computational cost, and propose an effective score prediction module to select high-quality templates. Our MixFormer sets a new state-of-the-art performance on five tracking benchmarks, including LaSOT, TrackingNet, VOT2020, GOT-10k, and UAV123. In particular, our MixFormer-L achieves NP score of 79.9% on LaSOT, 88.9% on TrackingNet and EAO of 0.555 on VOT2020. We also perform in-depth ablation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of simultaneous feature extraction and information integration. Code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MixFormer.

Model merging aims to combine multiple fine-tuned models into a single set of weights that performs well across all source tasks. While prior work has shown that merging can approximate the performance of individual fine-tuned models for each task, it largely overlooks scenarios where models are compressed into low-rank representations, either through low-rank adaptation (LoRA) or post-training singular value decomposition (SVD). We first demonstrate that applying conventional merging methods to low-rank weights leads to severe performance degradation in the merged model. Motivated by this phenomenon, we propose a fundamentally different approach: instead of collapsing all adapters into one set of weights, we construct a compact basis (e.g., an equivalent of holding two or more models) from which original task-specific models can be recovered via linear combination. This reframes merging as generating a reconstruction-capable model space rather than producing a single merged model. Crucially, this allows us to ``revert'' to each individual model when needed, recognizing that no merged model can consistently outperform one specialized for its task. Building on this insight, we introduce our method, Reversible Model Merging (RMM), an efficient, data-free, and flexible method that provides a closed-form solution for selecting the optimal basis of model weights and task-specific coefficients for linear combination. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and model scales demonstrate that RMM consistently outperforms existing merging approaches, preserving the performance of low-rank compressed models by a significant margin.

Residual connections are central to modern deep neural networks, enabling stable optimization and efficient information flow across depth. In this work, we propose SCORE (Skip-Connection ODE Recurrent Embedding), a discrete recurrent alternative to classical layer stacking. Instead of composing multiple independent layers, SCORE iteratively applies a single shared neural block using an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation)-inspired contractive update: ht+1 = (1 - dt) * ht + dt * F(ht) This formulation can be interpreted as a depth-by-iteration refinement process, where the step size dt explicitly controls stability and update magnitude. Unlike continuous Neural ODE approaches, SCORE uses a fixed number of discrete iterations and standard backpropagation without requiring ODE solvers or adjoint methods. We evaluate SCORE across graph neural networks (ESOL molecular solubility), multilayer perceptrons, and Transformer-based language models (nanoGPT). Across architectures, SCORE generally improves convergence speed and often accelerates training. SCORE is reducing parameter count through shared weights. In practice, simple Euler integration provides the best trade-off between computational cost and performance, while higher-order integrators yield marginal gains at increased compute. These results suggest that controlled recurrent depth with contractive residual updates offers a lightweight and effective alternative to classical stacking in deep neural networks.

The increasing accessibility of artificial intelligence has led to a rapid rise in AI-generated videos, making it more difficult to distinguish between real and manipulated content. Many existing detection methods rely on a single model and often struggle to generalize across different types of deepfakes. In this work, we developed a multimodal deepfake detection system that combines both audio and visual analysis using an ensemble of models. The system includes AASIST for audio-based detection, and EfficientNet, XceptionNet, and MesoNet for analyzing visual features in video frames. The pipeline takes a video as input, separates the audio, and extracts face frames using MTCNN. Each model produces a score indicating the likelihood of the input being fake. These scores are then combined using ensemble strategies, including mean averaging and stacking. Mean fusion provides a simple and stable baseline, while stacking uses a trained meta-model to learn how to combine predictions more effectively. Results show that while individual models perform well on the datasets they were trained on, their performance drops when tested on more diverse datasets. The ensemble approach helps improve overall robustness by combining predictions from multiple models, leading to more consistent performance across different types of deepfakes. This suggests that using both audio and visual information together is a more reliable approach for deepfake detection. Our results highlight generalization to unseen manipulations as the central open challenge, with average accuracy around 70%.