Daily Papers

We consider the problem of graph matching, or learning vertex correspondence, between two correlated stochastic block models (SBMs). The graph matching problem arises in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing and bioinformatics, and in particular, matching graphs with inherent community structure has significance related to de-anonymization of correlated social networks. Compared to the correlated Erdos-Renyi (ER) model, where various efficient algorithms have been developed, among which a few algorithms have been proven to achieve the exact matching with constant edge correlation, no low-order polynomial algorithm has been known to achieve exact matching for the correlated SBMs with constant correlation. In this work, we propose an efficient algorithm for matching graphs with community structure, based on the comparison between partition trees rooted from each vertex, by extending the idea of Mao et al. (2021) to graphs with communities. The partition tree divides the large neighborhoods of each vertex into disjoint subsets using their edge statistics to different communities. Our algorithm is the first low-order polynomial-time algorithm achieving exact matching between two correlated SBMs with high probability in dense graphs.

In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting thermodynamic properties of binary mixtures, which we call the similarity-based method (SBM). The method is based on quantifying the pairwise similarity of components, which we achieve by comparing quantum-chemical descriptors of the components, namely σ-profiles. The basic idea behind the approach is that mixtures with similar pairs of components will have similar thermodynamic properties. The SBM is trained on a matrix that contains some data for a given property for different binary mixtures; the missing entries are then predicted by the SBM. As an example, we consider the prediction of isothermal activity coefficients at infinite dilution (γ^infty_{ij}) and show that the SBM outperforms the well-established physical methods modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) and COSMO-SAC-dsp. In this case, the matrix is only sparsely occupied, and it is shown that the SBM works also if only a limited number of data for similar mixtures is available. The SBM idea can be transferred to any mixture property and is a powerful tool for generating essential data for many applications.

In bipartite networks, community structures are restricted to being disassortative, in that nodes of one type are grouped according to common patterns of connection with nodes of the other type. This makes the stochastic block model (SBM), a highly flexible generative model for networks with block structure, an intuitive choice for bipartite community detection. However, typical formulations of the SBM do not make use of the special structure of bipartite networks. Here we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of the SBM and a corresponding algorithm to efficiently find communities in bipartite networks which parsimoniously chooses the number of communities. The biSBM improves community detection results over general SBMs when data are noisy, improves the model resolution limit by a factor of 2, and expands our understanding of the complicated optimization landscape associated with community detection tasks. A direct comparison of certain terms of the prior distributions in the biSBM and a related high-resolution hierarchical SBM also reveals a counterintuitive regime of community detection problems, populated by smaller and sparser networks, where nonhierarchical models outperform their more flexible counterpart.

Diffusion models excel in noise-to-data generation tasks, providing a mapping from a Gaussian distribution to a more complex data distribution. However they struggle to model translations between complex distributions, limiting their effectiveness in data-to-data tasks. While Bridge Matching (BM) models address this by finding the translation between data distributions, their application to time-correlated data sequences remains unexplored. This is a critical limitation for video generation and manipulation tasks, where maintaining temporal coherence is particularly important. To address this gap, we propose Time-Correlated Video Bridge Matching (TCVBM), a framework that extends BM to time-correlated data sequences in the video domain. TCVBM explicitly models inter-sequence dependencies within the diffusion bridge, directly incorporating temporal correlations into the sampling process. We compare our approach to classical methods based on bridge matching and diffusion models for three video-related tasks: frame interpolation, image-to-video generation, and video super-resolution. TCVBM achieves superior performance across multiple quantitative metrics, demonstrating enhanced generation quality and reconstruction fidelity.

Inter-user interference remains a critical bottleneck in wireless communication systems, particularly in the emerging paradigm of semantic communication (SemCom). Compared to traditional systems, inter-user interference in SemCom severely degrades key semantic information, often causing worse performance than Gaussian noise under the same power level. To address this challenge, inspired by the recently proposed concept of Orthogonal Model Division Multiple Access (OMDMA) that leverages semantic orthogonality rooted in the personalized joint source and channel (JSCC) models to distinguish users, we propose a novel, scalable framework that eliminates the need for user-specific JSCC models as did in original OMDMA. Our key innovation lies in shuffle-based orthogonalization, where randomly permuting the positions of JSCC feature vectors transforms inter-user interference into Gaussian-like noise. By assigning each user a unique shuffling pattern, the interference is treated as channel noise, enabling effective mitigation using diffusion models (DMs). This approach not only simplifies system design by requiring a single universal JSCC model but also enhances privacy, as shuffling patterns act as implicit private keys. Additionally, we extend the framework to scenarios involving semantically correlated data. By grouping users based on semantic similarity, a cooperative beamforming strategy is introduced to exploit redundancy in correlated data, further improving system performance. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art multi-user SemCom frameworks, achieving superior semantic fidelity, robustness to interference, and scalability-all without requiring additional training overhead.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

User journeys in e-commerce routinely violate the one-to-one assumption that a clicked item on an advertising platform is the same item later purchased on the merchant's website/app. For a significant number of converting sessions on our platform, users click product A but buy product B -- the Click A, Buy B (CABB) phenomenon. Training recommendation models on raw click-conversion pairs therefore rewards items that merely correlate with purchases, leading to biased learning and sub-optimal conversion rates. We reframe conversion prediction as a multi-task problem with separate heads for Click A Buy A (CABA) and Click A Buy B (CABB). To isolate informative CABB conversions from unrelated CABB conversions, we introduce a taxonomy-aware collaborative filtering weighting scheme where each product is first mapped to a leaf node in a product taxonomy, and a category-to-category similarity matrix is learned from large-scale co-engagement logs. This weighting amplifies pairs that reflect genuine substitutable or complementary relations while down-weighting coincidental cross-category purchases. Offline evaluation on e-commerce sessions reduces normalized entropy by 13.9% versus a last-click attribution baseline. An online A/B test on live traffic shows +0.25% gains in the primary business metric.

High-dimensional, underdetermined and highly correlated systems are common in data science practice, especially when analyzing physical measurements. In such settings, feature selection poses a fundamental challenge because multiple distinct sparse subsets may explain the response equally well. Their identification is crucial not only for predictive modeling but also for generating domain-specific insights into the underlying mechanisms. Yet, conventional methods typically isolate a single solution, obscuring the full spectrum of plausible explanations. This work introduces GEMSS (Gaussian Ensemble for Multiple Sparse Solutions), a variational algorithm designed to simultaneously discover multiple, diverse sparse feature combinations. The method employs a structured spike-and-slab prior for sparsity, a mixture of Gaussians to approximate the intractable multimodal posterior, and a Jaccard-based penalty to further control solution diversity. A single objective function is optimized via stochastic gradient descent. The method is tested on 128 comprehensive experiments by a novel benchmarking framework designed to generate artificial problems with multiple sparse solutions of equal predictive properties. This allows us to measure the retrieval of ground truth features rather than only evaluating predictive performance -- characteristics more fitting to our practical needs. A comparative analysis shows that GEMSS consistently outperforms five prominent feature selection methods adapted through the ALFESE framework. Finally, we demonstrate practical usability through 3 challenging real-world datasets from metabolomics and physical chemistry: GEMSS successfully isolates multiple distinct yet quality solutions. GEMSS is available as a PyPI package 'gemss'. The corresponding repository github.com/kat-er-ina/gemss/ includes the full codebase and a free, no-code application GEMSS Explorer.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

The Mamba layer offers an efficient selective state space model (SSM) that is highly effective in modeling multiple domains including NLP, long-range sequences processing, and computer vision. Selective SSMs are viewed as dual models, in which one trains in parallel on the entire sequence via IO-aware parallel scan, and deploys in an autoregressive manner. We add a third view and show that such models can be viewed as attention-driven models. This new perspective enables us to compare the underlying mechanisms to that of the self-attention layers in transformers and allows us to peer inside the inner workings of the Mamba model with explainability methods. Our code is publicly available.

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

The Schr\"odinger Bridge (SB) is a powerful framework for solving generative modeling tasks such as unpaired domain translation. Most SB-related research focuses on continuous data space R^{D} and leaves open theoretical and algorithmic questions about applying SB methods to discrete data, e.g, on finite spaces S^{D}. Notable examples of such sets S are codebooks of vector-quantized (VQ) representations of modern autoencoders, tokens in texts, categories of atoms in molecules, etc. In this paper, we provide a theoretical and algorithmic foundation for solving SB in discrete spaces using the recently introduced Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) procedure. Specifically, we theoretically justify the convergence of discrete-time IMF (D-IMF) to SB in discrete spaces. This enables us to develop a practical computational algorithm for SB which we call Categorical Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (CSBM). We show the performance of CSBM via a series of experiments with synthetic data and VQ representations of images.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

We study the polynomial-time approximability of the optimal online stochastic bipartite matching algorithm, initiated by Papadimitriou et al. (EC'21). Here, nodes on one side of the graph are given upfront, while at each time t, an online node and its edge weights are drawn from a time-dependent distribution. The optimal algorithm is PSPACE-hard to approximate within some universal constant. We refer to this optimal algorithm, which requires time to think (compute), as a philosopher, and refer to polynomial-time online approximations of the above as philosopher inequalities. The best known philosopher inequality for online matching yields a 0.652-approximation. In contrast, the best possible prophet inequality, or approximation of the optimum offline solution, is 0.5. Our main results are a 0.678-approximate algorithm and a 0.685-approximation for a vertex-weighted special case. Notably, both bounds exceed the 0.666-approximation of the offline optimum obtained by Tang, Wu, and Wu (STOC'22) for the vertex-weighted problem. Building on our algorithms and the recent black-box reduction of Banihashem et al. (SODA'24), we provide polytime (pricing-based) truthful mechanisms which 0.678-approximate the social welfare of the optimal online allocation for bipartite matching markets. Our online allocation algorithm relies on the classic pivotal sampling algorithm (Srinivasan FOCS'01, Gandhi et al. J.ACM'06), along with careful discarding to obtain negative correlations between offline nodes. Consequently, the analysis boils down to examining the distribution of a weighted sum X of negatively correlated Bernoulli variables, specifically lower bounding its mass below a threshold, E[min(1,X)], of possible independent interest. Interestingly, our bound relies on an imaginary invocation of pivotal sampling.

Establishing semantic correspondences between images is a fundamental yet challenging task in computer vision. Traditional feature-metric methods enhance visual features but may miss complex inter-correlation relationships, while recent correlation-metric approaches are hindered by high computational costs due to processing 4D correlation maps. We introduce MambaMatcher, a novel method that overcomes these limitations by efficiently modeling high-dimensional correlations using selective state-space models (SSMs). By implementing a similarity-aware selective scan mechanism adapted from Mamba's linear-complexity algorithm, MambaMatcher refines the 4D correlation map effectively without compromising feature map resolution or receptive field. Experiments on standard semantic correspondence benchmarks demonstrate that MambaMatcher achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Affine Maximizer Auctions (AMAs), a generalized mechanism family from VCG, are widely used in automated mechanism design due to their inherent dominant-strategy incentive compatibility (DSIC) and individual rationality (IR). However, as the payment form is fixed, AMA's expressiveness is restricted, especially in distributions where bidders' valuations are correlated. In this paper, we propose Correlation-Aware AMA (CA-AMA), a novel framework that augments AMA with a new correlation-aware payment. We show that any CA-AMA preserves the DSIC property and formalize finding optimal CA-AMA as a constraint optimization problem subject to the IR constraint. Then, we theoretically characterize scenarios where classic AMAs can perform arbitrarily poorly compared to the optimal revenue, while the CA-AMA can reach the optimal revenue. For optimizing CA-AMA, we design a practical two-stage training algorithm. We derive that the target function's continuity and the generalization bound on the degree of deviation from strict IR. Finally, extensive experiments showcase that our algorithm can find an approximate optimal CA-AMA in various distributions with improved revenue and a low degree of violation of IR.

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Executing actions in a correlated manner is a common strategy for human coordination that often leads to better cooperation, which is also potentially beneficial for cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). However, the recent success of MARL relies heavily on the convenient paradigm of purely decentralized execution, where there is no action correlation among agents for scalability considerations. In this work, we introduce a Bayesian network to inaugurate correlations between agents' action selections in their joint policy. Theoretically, we establish a theoretical justification for why action dependencies are beneficial by deriving the multi-agent policy gradient formula under such a Bayesian network joint policy and proving its global convergence to Nash equilibria under tabular softmax policy parameterization in cooperative Markov games. Further, by equipping existing MARL algorithms with a recent method of differentiable directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), we develop practical algorithms to learn the context-aware Bayesian network policies in scenarios with partial observability and various difficulty. We also dynamically decrease the sparsity of the learned DAG throughout the training process, which leads to weakly or even purely independent policies for decentralized execution. Empirical results on a range of MARL benchmarks show the benefits of our approach.

State Space Models (SSMs) have become serious contenders in the field of sequential modeling, challenging the dominance of Transformers. At the same time, Mixture of Experts (MoE) has significantly improved Transformer-based LLMs, including recent state-of-the-art open-source models. We propose that to unlock the potential of SSMs for scaling, they should be combined with MoE. We showcase this on Mamba, a recent SSM-based model that achieves remarkable, Transformer-like performance. Our model, MoE-Mamba, outperforms both Mamba and Transformer-MoE. In particular, MoE-Mamba reaches the same performance as Mamba in 2.2x less training steps while preserving the inference performance gains of Mamba against the Transformer.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks.

Modeling and estimating mixed memberships for overlapping unipartite un-weighted networks has been well studied in recent years. However, to our knowledge, there is no model for a more general case, the overlapping bipartite weighted networks. To close this gap, we introduce a novel model, the Bipartite Mixed Membership Distribution-Free (BiMMDF) model. Our model allows an adjacency matrix to follow any distribution as long as its expectation has a block structure related to node membership. In particular, BiMMDF can model overlapping bipartite signed networks and it is an extension of many previous models, including the popular mixed membership stochastic blcokmodels. An efficient algorithm with a theoretical guarantee of consistent estimation is applied to fit BiMMDF. We then obtain the separation conditions of BiMMDF for different distributions. Furthermore, we also consider missing edges for sparse networks. The advantage of BiMMDF is demonstrated in extensive synthetic networks and eight real-world networks.

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but neglect channel correlations, limiting further enhancements. Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations, but they either introduce excessive complexity or rely too heavily on the correlation to achieve satisfactory results under distribution drifts, particularly with a large number of channels. Addressing this gap, this paper presents an efficient MLP-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS), which incorporates a novel STar Aggregate-Redistribute (STAR) module. Unlike traditional approaches that manage channel interactions through distributed structures, e.g., attention, STAR employs a centralized strategy to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on the quality of each channel. It aggregates all series to form a global core representation, which is then dispatched and fused with individual series representations to facilitate channel interactions effectively.SOFTS achieves superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods with only linear complexity. The broad applicability of the STAR module across different forecasting models is also demonstrated empirically. For further research and development, we have made our code publicly available at https://github.com/Secilia-Cxy/SOFTS.

We consider learning representations (features) in the setting in which we have access to multiple unlabeled views of the data for learning while only one view is available for downstream tasks. Previous work on this problem has proposed several techniques based on deep neural networks, typically involving either autoencoder-like networks with a reconstruction objective or paired feedforward networks with a batch-style correlation-based objective. We analyze several techniques based on prior work, as well as new variants, and compare them empirically on image, speech, and text tasks. We find an advantage for correlation-based representation learning, while the best results on most tasks are obtained with our new variant, deep canonically correlated autoencoders (DCCAE). We also explore a stochastic optimization procedure for minibatch correlation-based objectives and discuss the time/performance trade-offs for kernel-based and neural network-based implementations.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Sequential recommendation aims to estimate the dynamic user preferences and sequential dependencies among historical user behaviors. Although Transformer-based models have proven to be effective for sequential recommendation, they suffer from the inference inefficiency problem stemming from the quadratic computational complexity of attention operators, especially for long behavior sequences. Inspired by the recent success of state space models (SSMs), we propose Mamba4Rec, which is the first work to explore the potential of selective SSMs for efficient sequential recommendation. Built upon the basic Mamba block which is a selective SSM with an efficient hardware-aware parallel algorithm, we design a series of sequential modeling techniques to further promote model performance while maintaining inference efficiency. Through experiments on public datasets, we demonstrate how Mamba4Rec effectively tackles the effectiveness-efficiency dilemma, outperforming both RNN- and attention-based baselines in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/chengkai-liu/Mamba4Rec.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) has become a key ingredient for scaling large foundation models while keeping inference costs steady. We show that expert routing strategies that have cross-batch dependencies are vulnerable to attacks. Malicious queries can be sent to a model and can affect a model's output on other benign queries if they are grouped in the same batch. We demonstrate this via a proof-of-concept attack in a toy experimental setting.

This paper introduces a novel theoretical simplification of the Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge (DSB) that facilitates its unification with Score-based Generative Models (SGMs), addressing the limitations of DSB in complex data generation and enabling faster convergence and enhanced performance. By employing SGMs as an initial solution for DSB, our approach capitalizes on the strengths of both frameworks, ensuring a more efficient training process and improving the performance of SGM. We also propose a reparameterization technique that, despite theoretical approximations, practically improves the network's fitting capabilities. Our extensive experimental evaluations confirm the effectiveness of the simplified DSB, demonstrating its significant improvements. We believe the contributions of this work pave the way for advanced generative modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/checkcrab/SDSB.

High-Dimensional Low-Sample Size (HDLSS) tabular domains (e.g., omics) are characterized by n ll m, where n = number of samples, and m = number of features. Such domains often exhibit strong local correlation groups, sparse cross-group dependencies, heavy-tailed non-Gaussian marginals, heteroscedastic noise, and structured missingness, making direct density learning in R^m ill-conditioned since n ll m. We propose BSTabDiff, a block-subunit generative framework that partitions the m observed features into M latent blocks (M ll m) and generates each block via a shared low-dimensional subunit variable, concentrating global dependence learning in the compact block-latent space R^M while decoding to the full feature space with copula-driven dependence, flexible per-feature marginals, and explicit missingness mechanisms. BSTabDiff supports modern deep priors on block latents, including diffusion and normalizing flows, enabling stable synthesis and controllable benchmark generation in the HDLSS regime. Empirically, BSTabDiff produces more realistic and stable high-dimensional synthetic data when compared with unstructured tabular generators on HDLSS data.

Two-player, constant-sum games are well studied in the literature, but there has been limited progress outside of this setting. We propose Joint Policy-Space Response Oracles (JPSRO), an algorithm for training agents in n-player, general-sum extensive form games, which provably converges to an equilibrium. We further suggest correlated equilibria (CE) as promising meta-solvers, and propose a novel solution concept Maximum Gini Correlated Equilibrium (MGCE), a principled and computationally efficient family of solutions for solving the correlated equilibrium selection problem. We conduct several experiments using CE meta-solvers for JPSRO and demonstrate convergence on n-player, general-sum games.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Few-step distillation for video diffusion models has attracted significant attention, driven by the urgent demand for efficient deployment in real-world scenarios. However, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), a leading paradigm, tends to degrade under limited NFE budgets, manifesting in video generation as layout instability, oversaturation, and broken motion dynamics. We trace this failure to a structural limitation: standard DMD is an intra-sample distribution-matching objective with coordinate-wise gradients, and thus imposes no explicit constraint on the relational geometry across batch elements or temporal frames, leaving the underlying copula largely unregulated. Combined with the mode-seeking tendency of its reverse-KL objective, this absence of relational guidance makes DMD prone to collapsing into local optima in the few-step regime. Motivated by this insight, we propose Copula-aware DMD (CoDMD), a lightweight relational regularizer that reuses score estimates already produced by the frozen teacher and the online fake model to construct pairwise relation matrices across samples and frames. These are matched through a supplementary distributional objective that requires no additional networks, datasets, or sampling trajectories. On the Wan-2.1-T2V model series at 1.3B & 14B scales, CoDMD distills 50-step teachers into 4-step students, achieving an approximate 25times speed-up while attaining VBench scores of 84.46 & 84.87, outperforming prior trajectory-based (rCM 82.81 & 84.05) and distribution-based (DMD 83.38 & 83.81) methods.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

We study a kinematical consequence of the Hopf-algebraic momentum composition law in κ-Minkowski spacetime. The same curved momentum space can be described in different coordinates. In the bicrossproduct basis the ordered-plane-wave labels are the translation-generator eigenvalues, so the relevant map is one-to-one. In the classical basis, instead, the translation eigenvalues P_μ are nonlinearly related to the ordered-plane-wave labels p_μ. This relation can fail to be globally one-to-one in a high-momentum region. When a given classical-basis four-momentum admits more than one real auxiliary preimage, the branch-sensitive quantity P_+equiv P_0+P_4=κe^{p_0/κ} enters the coproduct and resolves the branches in two-particle states. Imposing the vanishing total-momentum constraint therefore gives branch-dependent κ-deformed back-to-back momentum correlations. In a single-branch regime this is just a deformed correlated product, while in a multibranch regime a state specified only by P_μ can be expanded into distinct auxiliary branches. If P_μ are taken as the directly meaningful momenta, the physical content is the resulting deformed correlation pattern. If the auxiliary variables p_μ are assigned operational meaning, the same constrained state can be interpreted as a superposition over different auxiliary branches. We also compare this structure with standard regular self-adjoint nonrelativistic minimal-length models and find no analogous smooth local two-real-branch inversion on their physical domains.

Stock price forecasting has remained an extremely challenging problem for many decades due to the high volatility of the stock market. Recent efforts have been devoted to modeling complex stock correlations toward joint stock price forecasting. Existing works share a common neural architecture that learns temporal patterns from individual stock series and then mixes up temporal representations to establish stock correlations. However, they only consider time-aligned stock correlations stemming from all the input stock features, which suffer from two limitations. First, stock correlations often occur momentarily and in a cross-time manner. Second, the feature effectiveness is dynamic with market variation, which affects both the stock sequential patterns and their correlations. To address the limitations, this paper introduces MASTER, a MArkert-Guided Stock TransformER, which models the momentary and cross-time stock correlation and leverages market information for automatic feature selection. MASTER elegantly tackles the complex stock correlation by alternatively engaging in intra-stock and inter-stock information aggregation. Experiments show the superiority of MASTER compared with previous works and visualize the captured realistic stock correlation to provide valuable insights.

Sparse matrix-vector multiplication (SpMV) is crucial in computational science, engineering, and machine learning. Despite substantial efforts to improve SpMV performance on GPUs through various techniques, issues related to data locality, hardware utilization, and load balancing persist, leaving room for further optimization. This paper presents CB-SpMV, a cache-friendly SpMV optimization algorithm, using a novel data convergent and adaptable 2D blocking structure. The matrix in CB-SpMV is divided into independent sub-blocks, with virtual pointers aggregating different types of intra-block data for better cache-level data locality. To enhance hardware utilization, a block-aware column aggregation strategy and the selection of sub-block formats are proposed to accelerate computation and adapt to varying sparse matrices. Finally, an inter-block load-balancing algorithm is designed to ensure efficient workload distribution across thread blocks. Experimental evaluations on 2,843 matrices from the SuiteSparse Collection show that CB-SpMV significantly improves cache hit rates and achieves average speedups of up to 3.95x over state-of-the-art methods like cuSPARSE-BSR, TileSpMV, and DASP on NVIDIA A100 and RTX 4090 GPUs. The implementation is available at: https://github.com/xing-cong/CB-Sparse.

In this paper, we present an algorithm for the sparse signal recovery problem that incorporates damped Gaussian generalized approximate message passing (GGAMP) into Expectation-Maximization (EM)-based sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). In particular, GGAMP is used to implement the E-step in SBL in place of matrix inversion, leveraging the fact that GGAMP is guaranteed to converge with appropriate damping. The resulting GGAMP-SBL algorithm is much more robust to arbitrary measurement matrix A than the standard damped GAMP algorithm while being much lower complexity than the standard SBL algorithm. We then extend the approach from the single measurement vector (SMV) case to the temporally correlated multiple measurement vector (MMV) case, leading to the GGAMP-TSBL algorithm. We verify the robustness and computational advantages of the proposed algorithms through numerical experiments.

As neural networks grow in scale, their training becomes both computationally demanding and rich in dynamics. Amidst the flourishing interest in these training dynamics, we present a novel observation: Parameters during training exhibit intrinsic correlations over time. Capitalizing on this, we introduce Correlation Mode Decomposition (CMD). This algorithm clusters the parameter space into groups, termed modes, that display synchronized behavior across epochs. This enables CMD to efficiently represent the training dynamics of complex networks, like ResNets and Transformers, using only a few modes. Moreover, test set generalization is enhanced. We introduce an efficient CMD variant, designed to run concurrently with training. Our experiments indicate that CMD surpasses the state-of-the-art method for compactly modeled dynamics on image classification. Our modeling can improve training efficiency and lower communication overhead, as shown by our preliminary experiments in the context of federated learning.

Cancer is a genetic disorder whose clonal evolution can be monitored by tracking noisy genome-wide copy number variants. We introduce the Copy Number Stochastic Block Model (CN-SBM), a probabilistic framework that jointly clusters samples and genomic regions based on discrete copy number states using a bipartite categorical block model. Unlike models relying on Gaussian or Poisson assumptions, CN-SBM respects the discrete nature of CNV calls and captures subpopulation-specific patterns through block-wise structure. Using a two-stage approach, CN-SBM decomposes CNV data into primary and residual components, enabling detection of both large-scale chromosomal alterations and finer aberrations. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm for application to large cohorts and high-resolution data. Benchmarks on simulated and real datasets show improved model fit over existing methods. Applied to TCGA low-grade glioma data, CN-SBM reveals clinically relevant subtypes and structured residual variation, aiding patient stratification in survival analysis. These results establish CN-SBM as an interpretable, scalable framework for CNV analysis with direct relevance for tumor heterogeneity and prognosis.

Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and competition among actors wherein actors 'cooperate to grow the pie and compete to split it up.' Modern socio-technical systems are characterized by strategic coopetition wherein actors concomitantly cooperate to create value and compete to capture it. While conceptual modeling languages such as i* provide rich qualitative representations of strategic dependencies, they lack mechanisms for quantitative analysis of dynamic trade-offs. Conversely, classical game theory offers mathematical rigor but strips away contextual richness. This report bridges this gap by developing computational foundations that formalize two critical dimensions of coopetition: interdependence and complementarity. We ground interdependence in i* structural dependency analysis, translating depender-dependee-dependum relationships into quantitative interdependence coefficients via a structured translation framework. We formalize complementarity following Brandenburger and Nalebuff's Added Value concept, modeling synergistic value creation with validated parameterization. We integrate structural dependencies with bargaining power in value appropriation and introduce a game-theoretic formulation where Nash Equilibrium incorporates structural interdependence. Validation combines over 22,000 experimental trials across power and logarithmic specifications with the Samsung-Sony S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011). Under strict historical alignment scoring, logarithmic specifications achieve 58/60 compared to power functions (46/60), producing realistic 41% cooperation increases aligning with documented S-LCD patterns while power functions produce 166% increases exceeding realistic bounds. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001, Cohen's d > 9.

Transformers have widely adopted attention networks for sequence mixing and MLPs for channel mixing, playing a pivotal role in achieving breakthroughs across domains. However, recent literature highlights issues with attention networks, including low inductive bias and quadratic complexity concerning input sequence length. State Space Models (SSMs) like S4 and others (Hippo, Global Convolutions, liquid S4, LRU, Mega, and Mamba), have emerged to address the above issues to help handle longer sequence lengths. Mamba, while being the state-of-the-art SSM, has a stability issue when scaled to large networks for computer vision datasets. We propose SiMBA, a new architecture that introduces Einstein FFT (EinFFT) for channel modeling by specific eigenvalue computations and uses the Mamba block for sequence modeling. Extensive performance studies across image and time-series benchmarks demonstrate that SiMBA outperforms existing SSMs, bridging the performance gap with state-of-the-art transformers. Notably, SiMBA establishes itself as the new state-of-the-art SSM on ImageNet and transfer learning benchmarks such as Stanford Car and Flower as well as task learning benchmarks as well as seven time series benchmark datasets. The project page is available on this website ~https://github.com/badripatro/Simba.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

Majority voting over multiple LLM attempts improves mathematical reasoning, but correlated errors limit the effective sample size. A natural fix is to assign different reasoning strategies to different voters. The approach, Diverse Prompt Mixer, is tested on the AIMO 3 competition: 3 models, 23+ experiments, 50 IMO-level problems, one H100 80 GB, 5-hour limit. Every prompt-level intervention fails. High-temperature sampling already decorrelates errors; weaker strategies reduce accuracy more than they reduce correlation. Across an 8-point capability gap at equal N=8 and every optimization tested, model capability dominates. The gap between the best majority-vote score (42/50) and pass@20 (~45.5) is selection loss, not prompt loss. A verifier-based selector could close it. Prompt engineering cannot.

Correlated structures are intimately connected to intriguing phenomena exhibited by a variety of disordered systems such as soft colloidal gels, bio-polymer networks and colloidal suspensions near a shear jamming transition. The universal critical behavior of these systems near the onset of rigidity is often described by traditional approaches as the coherent potential approximation - a versatile version of effective-medium theory that nevertheless have hitherto lacked key ingredients to describe disorder spatial correlations. Here we propose a multi-purpose generalization of the coherent potential approximation to describe the mechanical behavior of elastic networks with spatially-correlated disorder. We apply our theory to a simple rigidity-percolation model for colloidal gels and study the effects of correlations in both the critical point and the overall scaling behavior. We find that although the presence of spatial correlations (mimicking attractive interactions of gels) shifts the critical packing fraction to lower values, suggesting sub-isostatic behavior, the critical coordination number of the associated network remains isostatic. More importantly, we discuss how our theory can be employed to describe a large variety of systems with spatially-correlated disorder.

Recent advancements in state-space models (SSMs) have showcased effective performance in modeling long-range dependencies with subquadratic complexity. However, pure SSM-based models still face challenges related to stability and achieving optimal performance on computer vision tasks. Our paper addresses the challenges of scaling SSM-based models for computer vision, particularly the instability and inefficiency of large model sizes. To address this, we introduce a Modulated Group Mamba layer which divides the input channels into four groups and applies our proposed SSM-based efficient Visual Single Selective Scanning (VSSS) block independently to each group, with each VSSS block scanning in one of the four spatial directions. The Modulated Group Mamba layer also wraps the four VSSS blocks into a channel modulation operator to improve cross-channel communication. Furthermore, we introduce a distillation-based training objective to stabilize the training of large models, leading to consistent performance gains. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate the merits of the proposed contributions, leading to superior performance over existing methods for image classification on ImageNet-1K, object detection, instance segmentation on MS-COCO, and semantic segmentation on ADE20K. Our tiny variant with 23M parameters achieves state-of-the-art performance with a classification top-1 accuracy of 83.3% on ImageNet-1K, while being 26% efficient in terms of parameters, compared to the best existing Mamba design of same model size. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/Amshaker/GroupMamba.

Modern large language models (LLMs) have exhibited cooperative synergy on complex task-solving, and collective decision-making (CDM) is a pivotal component in LLM-based multi-agent collaboration frameworks. Our survey on 52 recent such systems uncovers a severe lack of diversity, with a heavy reliance on dictatorial and plurality voting for CDM. Through the lens of social choice theory, we scrutinize widely-adopted CDM methods and identify their limitations. To enrich current landscape of LLM-based CDM, we present GEDI, an electoral CDM module that incorporates various ordinal preferential voting mechanisms. Our empirical case study across three benchmarks shows that the integration of certain CDM methods can markedly improve the reasoning capabilities and robustness of some leading LLMs, all without requiring intricate system designs. Additionally, we find that some CDM mechanisms generate positive synergies even with as few as three agents. The voting-based methods also demonstrate robustness against single points of failure, as well as diversity in terms of hit-rate@k and subject-wise impacts.

The typical Selective State-Space Model (SSM) used in Mamba addresses several limitations of Transformers, such as the quadratic computational complexity with respect to sequence length and the significant memory requirements during inference due to the key-value (KV) cache. However, the increasing size of Mamba models continues to pose challenges for training and deployment, particularly due to their substantial computational demands during both training and inference. In this work, we introduce Bi-Mamba, a scalable and powerful 1-bit Mamba architecture designed to enable more efficient large language models (LLMs), with model sizes of 780M, 1.3B, and 2.7B parameters. Bi-Mamba models are trained from scratch on a standard LLM-scale dataset using an autoregressive distillation loss. Extensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks demonstrate that Bi-Mamba achieves performance comparable to its full-precision (FP16 or BF16) counterparts, while outperforming post-training binarization (PTB) Mamba and binarization-aware training (BAT) Transformer baselines. Moreover, Bi-Mamba drastically reduces memory usage and computational cost compared to the original Mamba. Our work pioneers a new line of linear-complexity LLMs under low-bit representation and provides the way for the design of specialized hardware optimized for efficient 1-bit Mamba-based models. Code and the pre-trained weights are available at https://github.com/Tangshengku/Bi-Mamba.

With the advancement of diffusion models (DMs) and the substantially increased computational requirements, quantization emerges as a practical solution to obtain compact and efficient low-bit DMs. However, the highly discrete representation leads to severe accuracy degradation, hindering the quantization of diffusion models to ultra-low bit-widths. In this paper, we propose BinaryDM, a novel accurate quantization-aware training approach to push the weights of diffusion models towards the limit of 1-bit. Firstly, we present a Learnable Multi-basis Binarizer (LMB) to recover the representations generated by the binarized DM, which improves the information in details of representations crucial to the DM. Secondly, a Low-rank Representation Mimicking (LRM) is applied to enhance the binarization-aware optimization of the DM, alleviating the optimization direction ambiguity caused by fine-grained alignment. Moreover, a progressive initialization strategy is applied to training DMs to avoid convergence difficulties. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that BinaryDM achieves significant accuracy and efficiency gains compared to SOTA quantization methods of DMs under ultra-low bit-widths. As the first binarization method for diffusion models, BinaryDM achieves impressive 16.0 times FLOPs and 27.1 times storage savings with 1-bit weight and 4-bit activation, showcasing its substantial advantages and potential for deploying DMs on resource-limited scenarios.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently demonstrated competitive performance to transformers at large-scale language modeling benchmarks while achieving linear time and memory complexity as a function of sequence length. Mamba, a recently released SSM model, shows impressive performance in both language modeling and long sequence processing tasks. Simultaneously, mixture-of-expert (MoE) models have shown remarkable performance while significantly reducing the compute and latency costs of inference at the expense of a larger memory footprint. In this paper, we present BlackMamba, a novel architecture that combines the Mamba SSM with MoE to obtain the benefits of both. We demonstrate that BlackMamba performs competitively against both Mamba and transformer baselines, and outperforms in inference and training FLOPs. We fully train and open-source 340M/1.5B and 630M/2.8B BlackMamba models on 300B tokens of a custom dataset. We show that BlackMamba inherits and combines both of the benefits of SSM and MoE architectures, combining linear-complexity generation from SSM with cheap and fast inference from MoE. We release all weights, checkpoints, and inference code open-source. Inference code at: https://github.com/Zyphra/BlackMamba

Dense Associative Memories (DenseAMs) are generalizations of Hopfield networks, which have superior information storage capacity and can store training data points (memories) at local minima of the energy landscape. When the amount of training data exceeds the critical memory storage capacity of these models, new local minima, which are different from the training data, emerge. In Associative Memory these emergent local minima are called spurious; states, which hinder memory retrieval. In this work, we examine diffusion models (DMs) through the DenseAM lens, viewing their generative process as an attempt of a memory retrieval. In the small data regimes, DMs create distinct attractors for each training sample, akin to DenseAMs below the critical memory storage. As the training data size increases, they transition from memorization to generalization. We identify a critical intermediate phase, predicted by DenseAM theory -- the spurious states. In generative modeling, these states are no longer negative artifacts but rather are the first signs of generative capabilities. We characterize the basins of attraction, energy landscape curvature, and computational properties of these previously overlooked states. Their existence is demonstrated across a wide range of architectures and datasets.

We study the sparse recovery problem with an underdetermined linear system characterized by a Kronecker-structured dictionary and a Kronecker-supported sparse vector. We cast this problem into the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework and rely on the expectation-maximization method for a solution. To this end, we model the Kronecker-structured support with a hierarchical Gaussian prior distribution parameterized by a Kronecker-structured hyperparameter, leading to a non-convex optimization problem. The optimization problem is solved using the alternating minimization (AM) method and a singular value decomposition (SVD)-based method, resulting in two algorithms. Further, we analytically guarantee that the AM-based method converges to the stationary point of the SBL cost function. The SVD-based method, though it adopts approximations, is empirically shown to be more efficient and accurate. We then apply our algorithm to estimate the uplink wireless channel in an intelligent reflecting surface-aided MIMO system and extend the AM-based algorithm to address block sparsity in the channel. We also study the SBL cost to show that the minima of the cost function are achieved at sparse solutions and that incorporating the Kronecker structure reduces the number of local minima of the SBL cost function. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the state-of-the-art.

User response prediction is essential in industrial recommendation systems, such as online display advertising. Among all the features in recommendation models, user behaviors are among the most critical. Many works have revealed that a user's behavior reflects her interest in the candidate item, owing to the semantic or temporal correlation between behaviors and the candidate. While the literature has individually examined each of these correlations, researchers have yet to analyze them in combination, that is, the semantic-temporal correlation. We empirically measure this correlation and observe intuitive yet robust patterns. We then examine several popular user interest models and find that, surprisingly, none of them learn such correlation well. To fill this gap, we propose a Temporal Interest Network (TIN) to capture the semantic-temporal correlation simultaneously between behaviors and the target. We achieve this by incorporating target-aware temporal encoding, in addition to semantic encoding, to represent behaviors and the target. Furthermore, we conduct explicit 4-way interaction by deploying target-aware attention and target-aware representation to capture both semantic and temporal correlation. We conduct comprehensive evaluations on two popular public datasets, and our proposed TIN outperforms the best-performing baselines by 0.43% and 0.29% on GAUC, respectively. During online A/B testing in Tencent's advertising platform, TIN achieves 1.65% cost lift and 1.93% GMV lift over the base model. It has been successfully deployed in production since October 2023, serving the WeChat Moments traffic. We have released our code at https://github.com/zhouxy1003/TIN.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers for sequential modeling, but their inability to leverage modality-specific features limits their performance in multi-modal pretraining. Here, we propose Mixture-of-Mamba, a novel SSM architecture that introduces modality-aware sparsity through modality-specific parameterization of the Mamba block. Building on Mixture-of-Transformers (W. Liang et al. arXiv:2411.04996; 2024), we extend the benefits of modality-aware sparsity to SSMs while preserving their computational efficiency. We evaluate Mixture-of-Mamba across three multi-modal pretraining settings: Transfusion (interleaved text and continuous image tokens with diffusion loss), Chameleon (interleaved text and discrete image tokens), and an extended three-modality framework incorporating speech. Mixture-of-Mamba consistently reaches the same loss values at earlier training steps with significantly reduced computational costs. In the Transfusion setting, Mixture-of-Mamba achieves equivalent image loss using only 34.76% of the training FLOPs at the 1.4B scale. In the Chameleon setting, Mixture-of-Mamba reaches similar image loss with just 42.50% of the FLOPs at the 1.4B scale, and similar text loss with just 65.40% of the FLOPs. In the three-modality setting, MoM matches speech loss at 24.80% of the FLOPs at the 1.4B scale. Our ablation study highlights the synergistic effects of decoupling projection components, where joint decoupling yields greater gains than individual modifications. These results establish modality-aware sparsity as a versatile and effective design principle, extending its impact from Transformers to SSMs and setting new benchmarks in multi-modal pretraining. Our code can be accessed at https://github.com/Weixin-Liang/Mixture-of-Mamba

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

We introduce a family of random matrices where correlations between matrix elements are induced via interaction-derived Boltzmann factors. Varying these yields access to different ensembles. We find a universal scaling behavior of the finite-size statistics characterized by a heavy-tailed eigenvalue distribution whose extremes are governed by the Fréchet extreme value distribution for the case corresponding to a ferromagnetic Ising transition. The introduction of a finite density of nonlocal interactions restores standard random-matrix behavior. Suitably rescaled average extremes, playing a physical role as an order parameter, can thus discriminate aspects of the interaction structure; they also yield further nonuniversal information. In particular, the link between maximum eigenvalues and order parameters offers a potential route to resolving long-standing problems in statistical physics, such as deriving the exact magnetization scaling function in the two-dimensional Ising model at criticality.

Embedding based product recommendations have gained popularity in recent years due to its ability to easily integrate to large-scale systems and allowing nearest neighbor searches in real-time. The bulk of studies in this area has predominantly been focused on similar item recommendations. Research on complementary item recommendations, on the other hand, still remains considerably under-explored. We define similar items as items that are interchangeable in terms of their utility and complementary items as items that serve different purposes, yet are compatible when used with one another. In this paper, we apply a novel approach to finding complementary items by leveraging dual embedding representations for products. We demonstrate that the notion of relatedness discovered in NLP for skip-gram negative sampling (SGNS) models translates effectively to the concept of complementarity when training item representations using co-purchase data. Since sparsity of purchase data is a major challenge in real-world scenarios, we further augment the model using synthetic samples to extend coverage. This allows the model to provide complementary recommendations for items that do not share co-purchase data by leveraging other abundantly available data modalities such as images, text, clicks etc. We establish the effectiveness of our approach in improving both coverage and quality of recommendations on real world data for a major online retail company. We further show the importance of task specific hyperparameter tuning in training SGNS. Our model is effective yet simple to implement, making it a great candidate for generating complementary item recommendations at any e-commerce website.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

In recent years, many large directed networks such as online social networks are collected with the help of powerful data engineering and data storage techniques. Analyses of such networks attract significant attention from both the academics and industries. However, analyses of large directed networks are often time-consuming and expensive because the complexities of a lot of graph algorithms are often polynomial with the size of the graph. Hence, sampling algorithms that can generate graphs preserving properties of original graph are of great importance because they can speed up the analysis process. We propose a promising framework to sample directed graphs: Construct a sample graph with linearly rescaled Joint Degree Matrix (JDM) and Degree Correlation Matrix (DCM). Previous work shows that graphs with the same JDM and DCM will have a range of very similar graph properties. We also conduct experiments on real-world datasets to show that the numbers of non-zero entries in JDM and DCM are quite small compared to the number of edges and nodes. Adopting this framework, we propose a novel graph sampling algorithm that can provably preserves in-degree and out-degree distributions, which are two most fundamental properties of a graph. We also prove the upper bound for deviations in the joint degree distribution and degree correlation distribution, which correspond to JDM and DCM. Besides, we prove that the deviations in these distributions are negatively correlated with the sparsity of the JDM and DCM. Considering that these two matrices are always quite sparse, we believe that proposed algorithm will have a better-than-theory performance on real-world large directed networks.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Mobile users (or UEs, to use 3GPP terminology) served by small cells in dense urban settings may abruptly experience a significant deterioration in their channel to their serving base stations (BSs) in several scenarios, such as after turning a corner around a tall building, or a sudden knot of traffic blocking the direct path between the UE and its serving BS. In this work, we propose a scheme to temporarily increase the data rate to/from this UE with additional bandwidth from the nearest Coordinated Multi-Point (CoMP) cluster of BSs, while the slower process of handover of the UE to a new serving BS is ongoing. We emphasize that this additional bandwidth is additional to the data rates the UE is getting over its primary connection to the current serving BS and, after the handover, to the new serving BS. The key novelty of the present work is the proposal of a decentralized market-based resource allocation method to perform resource allocation to support Coordinated Beamforming (CB) CoMP. It is scalable to large numbers of UEs and BSs, and it is fast because resource allocations are made bilaterally, between BSs and UEs. Once the resource allocation to the UE has been made, the coordinated of transmissions occurs as per the usual CB methods. Thus the proposed method has the benefit of giving the UE access to its desired amount of resources fast, without waiting for handover to complete, or reporting channel state information before it knows the resources it will be allocated for receiving transmissions from the serving BS.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Diffusion bridges have shown potential in paired image-to-image (I2I) translation tasks. However, existing methods are limited by their unidirectional nature, requiring separate models for forward and reverse translations. This not only doubles the computational cost but also restricts their practicality. In this work, we introduce the Bidirectional Diffusion Bridge Model (BDBM), a scalable approach that facilitates bidirectional translation between two coupled distributions using a single network. BDBM leverages the Chapman-Kolmogorov Equation for bridges, enabling it to model data distribution shifts across timesteps in both forward and backward directions by exploiting the interchangeability of the initial and target timesteps within this framework. Notably, when the marginal distribution given endpoints is Gaussian, BDBM's transition kernels in both directions possess analytical forms, allowing for efficient learning with a single network. We demonstrate the connection between BDBM and existing bridge methods, such as Doob's h-transform and variational approaches, and highlight its advantages. Extensive experiments on high-resolution I2I translation tasks demonstrate that BDBM not only enables bidirectional translation with minimal additional cost but also outperforms state-of-the-art bridge models. Our source code is available at [https://github.com/kvmduc/BDBM||https://github.com/kvmduc/BDBM].

This paper revisits the implementation of Load-balancing Loss (LBL) when training Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) models. Specifically, LBL for MoEs is defined as N_E sum_{i=1}^{N_E} f_i p_i, where N_E is the total number of experts, f_i represents the frequency of expert i being selected, and p_i denotes the average gating score of the expert i. Existing MoE training frameworks usually employ the parallel training strategy so that f_i and the LBL are calculated within a micro-batch and then averaged across parallel groups. In essence, a micro-batch for training billion-scale LLMs normally contains very few sequences. So, the micro-batch LBL is almost at the sequence level, and the router is pushed to distribute the token evenly within each sequence. Under this strict constraint, even tokens from a domain-specific sequence (e.g., code) are uniformly routed to all experts, thereby inhibiting expert specialization. In this work, we propose calculating LBL using a global-batch to loose this constraint. Because a global-batch contains much more diverse sequences than a micro-batch, which will encourage load balance at the corpus level. Specifically, we introduce an extra communication step to synchronize f_i across micro-batches and then use it to calculate the LBL. Through experiments on training MoEs-based LLMs (up to 42.8B total parameters and 400B tokens), we surprisingly find that the global-batch LBL strategy yields excellent performance gains in both pre-training perplexity and downstream tasks. Our analysis reveals that the global-batch LBL also greatly improves the domain specialization of MoE experts.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

State Space Models (SSMs) are emerging as a compelling alternative to Transformers because of their consistent memory usage and high performance. Despite this, scaling up SSMs on cloud services or limited-resource devices is challenging due to their storage requirements and computational power. To overcome this, quantizing SSMs with low bit-width data formats can reduce model size and benefit from hardware acceleration. As SSMs are prone to quantization-induced errors, recent efforts have focused on optimizing a particular model or bit-width for efficiency without sacrificing performance. However, distinct bit-width configurations are essential for different scenarios, like W4A8 for boosting large-batch decoding speed, and W4A16 for enhancing generation speed in short prompt applications for a single user. To this end, we present Quamba2, compatible with W8A8, W4A8, and W4A16 for both Mamba1 and Mamba2 backbones, addressing the growing demand for SSM deployment on various platforms. Based on the channel order preserving and activation persistence of SSMs, we propose an offline approach to quantize inputs of a linear recurrence in 8-bit by sorting and clustering for input x, combined with a per-state-group quantization for input-dependent parameters B and C. To ensure compute-invariance in the SSM output, we rearrange weights offline according to the clustering sequence. The experiments show that Quamba2-8B outperforms several state-of-the-art SSM quantization methods and delivers 1.3times and 3times speed-ups in the pre-filling and generation stages, respectively, while offering 4times memory reduction with only a 1.6% average accuracy drop. The evaluation on MMLU shows the generalizability and robustness of our framework. The code and quantized models will be released at: https://github.com/enyac-group/Quamba.

Recent advancements in State Space Models (SSMs) have attracted significant interest, particularly in models optimized for parallel training and handling long-range dependencies. Architectures like Mamba have scaled to billions of parameters with selective SSM. To facilitate broader applications using Mamba, exploring its efficiency is crucial. While token reduction techniques offer a straightforward post-training strategy, we find that applying existing methods directly to SSMs leads to substantial performance drops. Through insightful analysis, we identify the reasons for this failure and the limitations of current techniques. In response, we propose a tailored, unified post-training token reduction method for SSMs. Our approach integrates token importance and similarity, thus taking advantage of both pruning and merging, to devise a fine-grained intra-layer token reduction strategy. Extensive experiments show that our method improves the average accuracy by 5.7% to 13.1% on six benchmarks with Mamba-2 compared to existing methods, while significantly reducing computational demands and memory requirements.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Automatic evaluation methods based on large language models (LLMs) are emerging as the standard tool for assessing the instruction-following abilities of LLM-based agents. The most common method in this paradigm, pairwise comparisons with a baseline model, critically depends on the assumption of transitive preferences. However, the validity of this assumption remains largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate the presence of non-transitivity within the AlpacaEval framework and analyze its effects on model rankings. We find that LLM judges exhibit non-transitive preferences, leading to rankings that are sensitive to the choice of the baseline model. To mitigate this issue, we show that round-robin tournaments combined with Bradley-Terry models of preference can produce more reliable rankings. Notably, our method increases both the Spearman correlation and the Kendall correlation with Chatbot Arena (95.0% -> 96.4% and 82.1% -> 86.3% respectively). To address the computational cost of round-robin tournaments, we propose Swiss-Wise Iterative Matchmaking (Swim) tournaments, using a dynamic matching strategy to capture the benefits of round-robin tournaments while maintaining computational efficiency.

The success of large language models (LLMs) for time series has been demonstrated in previous work. Utilizing a symbolic time series representation, one can efficiently bridge the gap between LLMs and time series. However, the remaining challenge is to exploit the semantic information hidden in time series by using symbols or existing tokens of LLMs, while aligning the embedding space of LLMs according to the hidden information of time series. The symbolic time series approximation (STSA) method called adaptive Brownian bridge-based symbolic aggregation (ABBA) shows outstanding efficacy in preserving salient time series features by modeling time series patterns in terms of amplitude and period while using existing tokens of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce a method, called LLM-ABBA, that integrates ABBA into large language models for various downstream time series tasks. By symbolizing time series, LLM-ABBA compares favorably to the recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) in UCR and three medical time series classification tasks. Meanwhile, a fixed-polygonal chain trick in ABBA is introduced to avoid obvious drifting during forecasting tasks by significantly mitigating the effects of cumulative error arising from misused symbols during the transition from symbols to numerical values. In time series regression tasks, LLM-ABBA achieves the new SOTA on Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER) benchmarks. LLM-ABBA also shows competitive forecasting capability compared to recent SOTA time series forecasting results. We believe this framework can also seamlessly extend to other time series tasks. Our simulation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/inEXASCALE/llm-abba

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) offer a promising parallel generation paradigm but suffer from slow inference due to numerous refinement steps and the inability to use standard KV caching. We introduce CDLM (Consistency Diffusion Language Models), a training-based acceleration method that simultaneously tackles both bottlenecks. CDLM integrates consistency modeling to drastically reduce the number of required sampling steps by enabling multi-token finalization. Furthermore, we enforce a block-wise causal attention mask during fine-tuning, making the model fully compatible with KV caching. Experiments show CDLM achieves 3.6x-14.5x lower latency while maintaining competitive accuracy on math and coding tasks. The full training and evaluation code is available at https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/CDLM.

Structure-based drug design (SBDD) aims to discover drug candidates by finding molecules (ligands) that bind tightly to a disease-related protein (targets), which is the primary approach to computer-aided drug discovery. Recently, applying deep generative models for three-dimensional (3D) molecular design conditioned on protein pockets to solve SBDD has attracted much attention, but their formulation as probabilistic modeling often leads to unsatisfactory optimization performance. On the other hand, traditional combinatorial optimization methods such as genetic algorithms (GA) have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in various molecular optimization tasks. However, they do not utilize protein target structure to inform design steps but rely on a random-walk-like exploration, which leads to unstable performance and no knowledge transfer between different tasks despite the similar binding physics. To achieve a more stable and efficient SBDD, we propose Reinforced Genetic Algorithm (RGA) that uses neural models to prioritize the profitable design steps and suppress random-walk behavior. The neural models take the 3D structure of the targets and ligands as inputs and are pre-trained using native complex structures to utilize the knowledge of the shared binding physics from different targets and then fine-tuned during optimization. We conduct thorough empirical studies on optimizing binding affinity to various disease targets and show that RGA outperforms the baselines in terms of docking scores and is more robust to random initializations. The ablation study also indicates that the training on different targets helps improve performance by leveraging the shared underlying physics of the binding processes. The code is available at https://github.com/futianfan/reinforced-genetic-algorithm.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

The Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) problem and its dynamic counterpart, the Schrödinger bridge (SB) problem, play an important role in modern machine learning, linking generative modeling with optimal transport theory. While recent advances in discrete diffusion and flow models have sparked growing interest in applying SB methods to discrete domains, there is still no reliable way to evaluate how well these methods actually solve the underlying problem. We address this challenge by introducing a benchmark for SB on discrete spaces. Our construction yields pairs of probability distributions with analytically known SB solutions, enabling rigorous evaluation. As a byproduct of building this benchmark, we obtain two new SB algorithms, DLightSB and DLightSB-M, and additionally extend prior related work to construct the α-CSBM algorithm. We demonstrate the utility of our benchmark by evaluating both existing and new solvers in high-dimensional discrete settings. This work provides the first step toward proper evaluation of SB methods on discrete spaces, paving the way for more reproducible future studies.

We introduce fast algorithms for correlation clustering with respect to the Min Max objective that provide constant factor approximations on complete graphs. Our algorithms are the first purely combinatorial approximation algorithms for this problem. We construct a novel semi-metric on the set of vertices, which we call the correlation metric, that indicates to our clustering algorithms whether pairs of nodes should be in the same cluster. The paper demonstrates empirically that, compared to prior work, our algorithms sacrifice little in the objective quality to obtain significantly better run-time. Moreover, our algorithms scale to larger networks that are effectively intractable for known algorithms.

Vacancies are prevalent and versatile in solid-state physics and materials science. The role of vacancies in strongly correlated materials, however, remains uncultivated until now. Here, we report the discovery of an unprecedented vacancy state forming an extended buckled-honeycomb-vacancy (BHV) ordering in Ir_{16}Sb_{18}. Superconductivity emerges by suppressing the BHV ordering through squeezing of extra Ir atoms into the vacancies or isovalent Rh substitution. The phase diagram on vacancy ordering reveals the superconductivity competes with the BHV ordering. Further theoretical calculations suggest that this ordering originates from a synergistic effect of the vacancy formation energy and Fermi surface nesting with a wave vector of (1/3, 1/3, 0). The buckled structure breaks the crystal inversion symmetry and can mostly suppress the density of states near the Fermi level. The peculiarities of BHV ordering highlight the importance of "correlated vacancies" and may serve as a paradigm for exploring other non-trivial excitations and quantum criticality.

We report the discovery of bimodal structure in the drift rate distribution of upward-drifting burst clusters from the hyperactive repeating fast radio burst FRB 20240114A. Using unsupervised machine learning (UMAP dimensionality reduction combined with HDBSCAN density-based clustering) applied to 233 upward-drifting burst clusters from the FAST telescope dataset, we identify a distinct subpopulation of 45 burst clusters (Cluster C1) with mean drift rates 2.5x higher than typical upward-drifting burst clusters (245.6 vs 98.1 MHz/ms). Gaussian mixture modeling reveals strong evidence for bimodality (delta-BIC = 296.6), with clearly separated modes (Ashman's D = 2.70 > 2) and a statistically significant gap in the distribution (11.3 sigma). Crucially, we demonstrate that this bimodality persists when restricting the analysis to single-component (U1) burst clusters only (delta-BIC = 19.9, Ashman's D = 2.71), confirming that the result is not an artifact of combining single- and multi-component burst clusters with different drift rate definitions. The extreme-drift subpopulation also exhibits systematically lower peak frequencies (-7%), shorter durations (-29%), and distinct clustering in multi-dimensional feature space. These findings are suggestive of two spatially separated emission regions in the magnetosphere, each producing upward-drifting burst clusters with distinct physical characteristics, although confirmation requires observations from additional epochs and sources.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

Balancing fine-grained local modeling with long-range dependency capture under computational constraints remains a central challenge in sequence modeling. While Transformers provide strong token mixing, they suffer from quadratic complexity, whereas Mamba-style selective state-space models (SSMs) scale linearly but often struggle to capture high-rank and synchronous global interactions. We present a consistency boundary analysis that characterizes when diagonal short-memory SSMs can approximate causal attention and identifies structural gaps that remain. Motivated by this analysis, we propose InfoMamba, an attention-free hybrid architecture. InfoMamba replaces token-level self-attention with a concept bottleneck linear filtering layer that serves as a minimal-bandwidth global interface and integrates it with a selective recurrent stream through information-maximizing fusion (IMF). IMF dynamically injects global context into the SSM dynamics and encourages complementary information usage through a mutual-information-inspired objective. Extensive experiments on classification, dense prediction, and non-vision tasks show that InfoMamba consistently outperforms strong Transformer and SSM baselines, achieving competitive accuracy-efficiency trade-offs while maintaining near-linear scaling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

State-Space Models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a powerful and efficient alternative to the long-standing transformer architecture. However, existing SSM conceptualizations retain deeply rooted biases from their roots in natural language processing. This constrains their ability to appropriately model the spatially-dependent characteristics of visual inputs. In this paper, we address these limitations by re-deriving modern selective state-space techniques, starting from a natively multidimensional formulation. Currently, prior works attempt to apply natively 1D SSMs to 2D data (i.e. images) by relying on arbitrary combinations of 1D scan directions to capture spatial dependencies. In contrast, Mamba2D improves upon this with a single 2D scan direction that factors in both dimensions of the input natively, effectively modelling spatial dependencies when constructing hidden states. Mamba2D shows comparable performance to prior adaptations of SSMs for vision tasks, on standard image classification evaluations with the ImageNet-1K dataset. Source code is available at https://github.com/cocoalex00/Mamba2D.

Recent studies have shown that, relative position encoding performs well in selective state space model scanning algorithms, and the architecture that balances SSM and Attention enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of the algorithm, while the sparse activation of the mixture of experts reduces the training cost. I studied the effectiveness of using different position encodings in structured state space dual algorithms, and the more effective SSD-Attn internal and external function mixing method, and designed a more efficient cross domain mixture of experts. I found that the same matrix is very wonderful in different algorithms, which allows us to establish a new hybrid sparse architecture: Cheems. Compared with other hybrid architectures, it is more efficient and more effective in language modeling tasks.

Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), with Mamba as a prime example, have shown great promise for long-range dependency modeling with linear complexity. Then, Vision Mamba and the subsequent architectures are presented successively, and they perform well on visual tasks. The crucial step of applying Mamba to visual tasks is to construct 2D visual features in sequential manners. To effectively organize and construct visual features within the 2D image space through 1D selective scan, we propose a novel Multi-Head Scan (MHS) module. The embeddings extracted from the preceding layer are projected into multiple lower-dimensional subspaces. Subsequently, within each subspace, the selective scan is performed along distinct scan routes. The resulting sub-embeddings, obtained from the multi-head scan process, are then integrated and ultimately projected back into the high-dimensional space. Moreover, we incorporate a Scan Route Attention (SRA) mechanism to enhance the module's capability to discern complex structures. To validate the efficacy of our module, we exclusively substitute the 2D-Selective-Scan (SS2D) block in VM-UNet with our proposed module, and we train our models from scratch without using any pre-trained weights. The results indicate a significant improvement in performance while reducing the parameters of the original VM-UNet. The code for this study is publicly available at https://github.com/PixDeep/MHS-VM.

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a promising approach to tackle complex tasks that are difficult for individual LLMs. A natural strategy is to scale performance by increasing the number of agents; however, we find that such scaling exhibits strong diminishing returns in homogeneous settings, while introducing heterogeneity (e.g., different models, prompts, or tools) continues to yield substantial gains. This raises a fundamental question: what limits scaling, and why does diversity help? We present an information-theoretic framework showing that MAS performance is bounded by the intrinsic task uncertainty, not by agent count. We derive architecture-agnostic bounds demonstrating that improvements depend on how many effective channels the system accesses. Homogeneous agents saturate early because their outputs are strongly correlated, whereas heterogeneous agents contribute complementary evidence. We further introduce K^*, an effective channel count that quantifies the number of effective channels without ground-truth labels. Empirically, we show that heterogeneous configurations consistently outperform homogeneous scaling: 2 diverse agents can match or exceed the performance of 16 homogeneous agents. Our results provide principled guidelines for building efficient and robust MAS through diversity-aware design. Code and Dataset are available at the link: https://github.com/SafeRL-Lab/Agent-Scaling.

Despite the significant achievements of Vision Transformers (ViTs) in various vision tasks, they are constrained by the quadratic complexity. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs) have garnered widespread attention due to their global receptive field and linear complexity with respect to the input length, demonstrating substantial potential across fields including natural language processing and computer vision. To improve the performance of SSMs in vision tasks, a multi-scan strategy is widely adopted, which leads to significant redundancy of SSMs. For a better trade-off between efficiency and performance, we analyze the underlying reasons behind the success of the multi-scan strategy, where long-range dependency plays an important role. Based on the analysis, we introduce Multi-Scale Vision Mamba (MSVMamba) to preserve the superiority of SSMs in vision tasks with limited parameters. It employs a multi-scale 2D scanning technique on both original and downsampled feature maps, which not only benefits long-range dependency learning but also reduces computational costs. Additionally, we integrate a Convolutional Feed-Forward Network (ConvFFN) to address the lack of channel mixing. Our experiments demonstrate that MSVMamba is highly competitive, with the MSVMamba-Tiny model achieving 82.8% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, 46.9% box mAP, and 42.2% instance mAP with the Mask R-CNN framework, 1x training schedule on COCO, and 47.6% mIoU with single-scale testing on ADE20K.Code is available at https://github.com/YuHengsss/MSVMamba.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in few-shot classification (FSC) occur when novel classes sampled from testing distributions differ from base classes drawn from training distributions, which considerably degrades the performance of deep learning models deployed in real-world applications. Recent studies suggest that the OOD problems in FSC mainly including: (a) cross-domain few-shot classification (CD-FSC) and (b) spurious-correlation few-shot classification (SC-FSC). Specifically, CD-FSC occurs when a classifier learns transferring knowledge from base classes drawn from seen training distributions but recognizes novel classes sampled from unseen testing distributions. In contrast, SC-FSC arises when a classifier relies on non-causal features (or contexts) that happen to be correlated with the labels (or concepts) in base classes but such relationships no longer hold during the model deployment. Despite CD-FSC has been extensively studied, SC-FSC remains understudied due to lack of the corresponding evaluation benchmarks. To this end, we present Meta Concept Context (MetaCoCo), a benchmark with spurious-correlation shifts collected from real-world scenarios. Moreover, to quantify the extent of spurious-correlation shifts of the presented MetaCoCo, we further propose a metric by using CLIP as a pre-trained vision-language model. Extensive experiments on the proposed benchmark are performed to evaluate the state-of-the-art methods in FSC, cross-domain shifts, and self-supervised learning. The experimental results show that the performance of the existing methods degrades significantly in the presence of spurious-correlation shifts. We open-source all codes of our benchmark and hope that the proposed MetaCoCo can facilitate future research on spurious-correlation shifts problems in FSC. The code is available at: https://github.com/remiMZ/MetaCoCo-ICLR24.

Selective state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, highly excel at capturing long-range dependencies in 1D sequential data, while their applications to 2D vision tasks still face challenges. Current visual SSMs often convert images into 1D sequences and employ various scanning patterns to incorporate local spatial dependencies. However, these methods are limited in effectively capturing the complex image spatial structures and the increased computational cost caused by the lengthened scanning paths. To address these limitations, we propose Spatial-Mamba, a novel approach that establishes neighborhood connectivity directly in the state space. Instead of relying solely on sequential state transitions, we introduce a structure-aware state fusion equation, which leverages dilated convolutions to capture image spatial structural dependencies, significantly enhancing the flow of visual contextual information. Spatial-Mamba proceeds in three stages: initial state computation in a unidirectional scan, spatial context acquisition through structure-aware state fusion, and final state computation using the observation equation. Our theoretical analysis shows that Spatial-Mamba unifies the original Mamba and linear attention under the same matrix multiplication framework, providing a deeper understanding of our method. Experimental results demonstrate that Spatial-Mamba, even with a single scan, attains or surpasses the state-of-the-art SSM-based models in image classification, detection and segmentation. Source codes and trained models can be found at https://github.com/EdwardChasel/Spatial-Mamba.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Collaborative filtering generates recommendations based on user-item similarities through rating data, which may involve numerous unrated items. To predict scores for unrated items, matrix factorization techniques, such as nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), are often employed to predict scores for unrated items. Nonnegative/binary matrix factorization (NBMF), which is an extension of NMF, approximates a nonnegative matrix as the product of nonnegative and binary matrices. Previous studies have employed NBMF for image analysis where the data were dense. In this paper, we propose a modified NBMF algorithm that can be applied to collaborative filtering where data are sparse. In the modified method, unrated elements in a rating matrix are masked, which improves the collaborative filtering performance. Utilizing a low-latency Ising machine in NBMF is advantageous in terms of the computation time, making the proposed method beneficial.

The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets. The source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjieWang0606/MDMT-Public.

Mamba, a State Space Model (SSM) that accelerates training by recasting recurrence as a parallel scan, has recently emerged as a linearly-scaling alternative to self-attention. Because of its unidirectional nature, each state in Mamba only has information of its previous states and is blind to states after. Current Mamba-based computer-vision methods typically overcome this by augmenting Mamba's global forward scan with a global backward scan, forming a bi-directional scan to restore a full receptive field. However, this operation doubles the computational load, eroding much of the efficiency advantage that originally Mamba have. To eliminate this extra scans, we introduce LBMamba, a locally bi-directional SSM block that embeds a lightweight locally backward scan inside the forward scan and executes it in per-thread registers. Building on LBMamba, we present LBVim, a backbone that alternates scan directions every two layers to recover a global receptive field without extra backward sweeps. We validate our approach on both natural images and whole slide images (WSIs) and show that it constantly offers a superior performance-throughput trade-off. Under the same throughput, LBVim achieves 0.8% to 1.6% higher top-1 accuracy on the ImageNet-1K classification dataset, 0.6% to 2.7% higher mIoU on the ADE20K semantic segmentation dataset, 0.9% higher APb and 1.1% higher APm on the COCO detection dataset. Our method also boosts the accuracy of four SOTA Mamba models, namely VMamba, LocalVim, PlainMamba and Adventurer, by 0.5% to 3.4%. We integrate LBMamba into the SOTA pathology multiple instance learning (MIL) model, MambaMIL, which is unidirectional. Experiments on 3 public WSI classification datasets show that our method achieves a relative improvement of up to 3.06% better AUC, 3.39% better F1, 1.67% better accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/cvlab-stonybrook/LBMamba.

We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant dependence on turnover, directly confirming an earlier result based on a more indirect empirical analysis. We further find empirically that turnover has poor explanatory power for alpha correlations.

The consistency model (CM) has recently made significant progress in accelerating the generation of diffusion models. However, its application to high-resolution, text-conditioned image generation in the latent space (a.k.a., LCM) remains unsatisfactory. In this paper, we identify three key flaws in the current design of LCM. We investigate the reasons behind these limitations and propose the Phased Consistency Model (PCM), which generalizes the design space and addresses all identified limitations. Our evaluations demonstrate that PCM significantly outperforms LCM across 1--16 step generation settings. While PCM is specifically designed for multi-step refinement, it achieves even superior or comparable 1-step generation results to previously state-of-the-art specifically designed 1-step methods. Furthermore, we show that PCM's methodology is versatile and applicable to video generation, enabling us to train the state-of-the-art few-step text-to-video generator. More details are available at https://g-u-n.github.io/projects/pcm/.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Do larger and more capable language models learn to update their "beliefs" about propositions more consistently with Bayes' theorem when presented with evidence in-context? To test this, we formulate a Bayesian Coherence Coefficient (BCC) metric and generate a dataset with which to measure the BCC. We measure BCC for multiple pre-trained-only language models across five model families, comparing against the number of model parameters, the amount of training data, and model scores on common benchmarks. Our results provide evidence for our hypothesis that larger and more capable pre-trained language models assign credences that are more coherent with Bayes' theorem. These results have important implications for our understanding and governance of LLMs.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models over discrete domains. MDMs generate sequences in an any-order, parallel fashion, enabling fast inference and strong performance on non-causal tasks. However, a crucial limitation is that they do not support token insertions and are thus limited to fixed-length generations. To this end, we introduce Flexible Masked Diffusion Models (FlexMDMs), a discrete diffusion paradigm that simultaneously can model sequences of flexible length while provably retaining MDMs' flexibility of any-order inference. Grounded in an extension of the stochastic interpolant framework, FlexMDMs generate sequences by inserting mask tokens and unmasking them. Empirically, we show that FlexMDMs match MDMs in perplexity while modeling length statistics with much higher fidelity. On a synthetic maze planning task, they achieve approx 60 % higher success rate than MDM baselines. Finally, we show pretrained MDMs can easily be retrofitted into FlexMDMs: on 16 H100s, it takes only three days to fine-tune LLaDA-8B into a FlexMDM, achieving superior performance on math (GSM8K, 58% to 67%) and code infilling performance (52% to 65%).

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

The Transformer architecture has shown a remarkable ability in modeling global relationships. However, it poses a significant computational challenge when processing high-dimensional medical images. This hinders its development and widespread adoption in this task. Mamba, as a State Space Model (SSM), recently emerged as a notable manner for long-range dependencies in sequential modeling, excelling in natural language processing filed with its remarkable memory efficiency and computational speed. Inspired by its success, we introduce SegMamba, a novel 3D medical image Segmentation Mamba model, designed to effectively capture long-range dependencies within whole volume features at every scale. Our SegMamba, in contrast to Transformer-based methods, excels in whole volume feature modeling from a state space model standpoint, maintaining superior processing speed, even with volume features at a resolution of {64times 64times 64}. Comprehensive experiments on the BraTS2023 dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our SegMamba. The code for SegMamba is available at: https://github.com/ge-xing/SegMamba

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

We introduce Gradient Agreement Filtering (GAF) to improve on gradient averaging in distributed deep learning optimization. Traditional distributed data-parallel stochastic gradient descent involves averaging gradients of microbatches to calculate a macrobatch gradient that is then used to update model parameters. We find that gradients across microbatches are often orthogonal or negatively correlated, especially in late stages of training, which leads to memorization of the training set, reducing generalization. In this paper, we introduce a simple, computationally effective way to reduce gradient variance by computing the cosine distance between micro-gradients during training and filtering out conflicting updates prior to averaging. We improve validation accuracy with significantly smaller microbatch sizes. We also show this reduces memorizing noisy labels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on standard image classification benchmarks including CIFAR-100 and CIFAR-100N-Fine. We show this technique consistently outperforms validation accuracy, in some cases by up to 18.2\% compared to traditional training approaches while reducing the computation required nearly an order of magnitude because we can now rely on smaller microbatch sizes without destabilizing training.

Recently bipartite graphs have been widely used to represent the relationship two sets of items for information retrieval applications. The Web offers a wide range of data which can be represented by bipartite graphs, such us movies and reviewers in recomender systems, queries and URLs in search engines, users and posts in social networks. The size and the dynamic nature of such graphs generate the need for more efficient ranking methods. In this thesis, at first we present the fundamental mathematical backround that we use subsequently and we describe the basic principles of the Perron-Frobebius theory for non negative matrices as well as the the basic principles of the Markov chain theory. Then, we propose a novel algorithm named BipartiteRank, which is suitable to rank scenarios, that can be represented as a bipartite graph. This algorithm is based on the random surfer model and inherits the basic mathematical characteristics of PageRank. What makes it different, is the fact that it introduces an alternative type of teleportation, based on the block structure of the bipartite graph in order to achieve more efficient ranking. Finally, we support this opinion with mathematical arguments and then we confirm it experimentally through a series of tests on real data.

The Sequential Recommendation modeling paradigm is shifting from Transformer to Mamba architecture, which comprises two generations: Mamba1, based on the State Space Model (SSM), and Mamba2, based on State Space Duality (SSD). Although SSD offers superior computational efficiency compared to SSM, it suffers performance degradation in sequential recommendation tasks, especially in low-dimensional scenarios that are critical for these tasks. Considering that time-aware enhancement methods are commonly employed to mitigate performance loss, our analysis reveals that the performance decline of SSD can similarly be fundamentally compensated by leveraging mechanisms in time-aware methods. Thus, we propose integrating time-awareness into the SSD framework to address these performance issues. However, integrating current time-aware methods, modeled after TiSASRec, into SSD faces the following challenges: 1) the complexity of integrating these transformer-based mechanisms with the SSD architecture, and 2) the computational inefficiency caused by the need for dimensionality expansion of time-difference modeling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a novel Time-aware Structured Masked Matrix that efficiently incorporates time-aware capabilities into SSD. Building on this, we propose Time-Aware Mamba for Recommendation (TiM4Rec), which mitigates performance degradation in low-dimensional SSD contexts while preserving computational efficiency. This marks the inaugural application of a time-aware enhancement method specifically tailored for the Mamba architecture within the domain of sequential recommendation. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach. The code for our model is accessible at https://github.com/AlwaysFHao/TiM4Rec.