Daily Papers

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

We present xBD, a new, large-scale dataset for the advancement of change detection and building damage assessment for humanitarian assistance and disaster recovery research. Natural disaster response requires an accurate understanding of damaged buildings in an affected region. Current response strategies require in-person damage assessments within 24-48 hours of a disaster. Massive potential exists for using aerial imagery combined with computer vision algorithms to assess damage and reduce the potential danger to human life. In collaboration with multiple disaster response agencies, xBD provides pre- and post-event satellite imagery across a variety of disaster events with building polygons, ordinal labels of damage level, and corresponding satellite metadata. Furthermore, the dataset contains bounding boxes and labels for environmental factors such as fire, water, and smoke. xBD is the largest building damage assessment dataset to date, containing 850,736 building annotations across 45,362 km2 of imagery.

Background. Aircraft-wildlife collisions are a documented aviation hazard. The FAA National Wildlife Strike Database is the main public source of U.S. reports, but raw extracts are large and rarely released as versioned aggregates. Methods. We convert the public FAA Access export (STRIKE_REPORTS) to SQLite, define a report as damaging when DAMAGE_LEVEL is one of M, M?, S, D, and fold rows into open aggregates (year, airport, species, aircraft, animal family) via hierarchical SPECIES_ID prefixes. We analyze all civil reports and a commercial subset (AC_MASS 3-5). Rates are per reported strike, not per flight hour, so every rate is conditional on a report having been filed. Trend statistics use complete incident years 1990-2025; cross-sectional facets cover the full seed, incident years 1990-2026. Results. Numbers are locked to the 2026-07-04 freeze. Reported strikes in 2025 reach a series high (24,458 total; 901 damaging). Species that dominate strike counts are not those with the highest damage rates: perching songbirds account for 41.1% of identified strikes but damage aircraft in 1.5% of reports (95% CI 1.4-1.6), whereas deer account for 0.7% but damage aircraft in 81.8% of reports (95% CI 79.8-83.7). Airports ranked by total strikes (led by Denver Intl) diverge from rankings by damaging strikes (led by Sacramento Intl); across the 452 airports with at least 50 reports, volume and conditional damage rate are negatively rank-correlated (Spearman rho = -0.44, p < 0.001); large stations plausibly capture minor events more completely, so this is not a hazard ranking. The share of reports labeled damaging declines over decades, consistent with improved reporting of minor events, while absolute damaging counts peak in 2025. Conclusions. Versioned open aggregates and a documented damage-rate analysis enable independent reuse; released under CC BY 4.0.

Rapid, accurate, and descriptive building damage assessment is critical for directing post-disaster resources, yet current automated methods typically provide only binary (damaged/undamaged) or ordinal severity scales. This paper introduces DamageCAT, a framework that advances damage assessment through typology-based categorical classifications. We contribute: (1) the BD-TypoSAT dataset containing satellite image triplets from Hurricane Ida with four damage categories - partial roof damage, total roof damage, partial structural collapse, and total structural collapse - and (2) a hierarchical U-Net-based transformer architecture for processing pre- and post-disaster image pairs. Our model achieves 0.737 IoU and 0.846 F1-score overall, with cross-event evaluation demonstrating transferability across Hurricane Harvey, Florence, and Michael data. While performance varies across damage categories due to class imbalance, the framework shows that typology-based classifications can provide more actionable damage assessments than traditional severity-based approaches, enabling targeted emergency response and resource allocation.

Decision-relevant building damage assessment is critical for prioritizing resources and recovery after a disaster, yet most automated methods either flatten damage into a single severity scale (no damage, minor, major, destroyed) or require paired pre- and post-event imagery that is often unavailable for emerging hazards. This paper presents Damage-TriageFormer, a single-image, post-event, footprint-conditioned model that produces a damage typology rather than a severity scale. We contribute: (1) DamageTriage-Bench, a new benchmark built from NOAA Emergency Response Imagery across Hurricane Michael (2018), Hurricane Helene (2024), and the 2025 Los Angeles wildfire complex, with five typology classes that distinguish roof damage from structural damage and, within each, partial from total extent; and (2) Damage-TriageFormer, which extends a DINOv3 ViT-L backbone with a Simple Feature Pyramid for higher-resolution instance pooling, a two-stage gated damage head, and an auxiliary severity-regression objective. Our model achieves macro F1 of 0.624 on validation and 0.619 on a held-out stratified test set, performing strongest where operational triage needs it most, with per-class F1 of 0.91 and 0.84 on undamaged buildings and total structural collapse, respectively. While the rare Total Roof Damage class remains difficult due to its limited examples and an inherently ambiguous label boundary, our results show that single-image post-event imagery can support actionable building damage typing, enabling targeted emergency response and resource allocation without a pre-event reference.

Large Language Model Powered Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) are increasingly employed to automate complex real-world problems, such as programming and scientific discovery. Despite their promising, MASs are not without their flaws. However, failure attribution in MASs - pinpointing the specific agent actions responsible for failures - remains underexplored and labor-intensive, posing significant challenges for debugging and system improvement. To bridge this gap, we propose FAMAS, the first spectrum-based failure attribution approach for MASs, which operates through systematic trajectory replay and abstraction, followed by spectrum analysis.The core idea of FAMAS is to estimate, from variations across repeated MAS executions, the likelihood that each agent action is responsible for the failure. In particular, we propose a novel suspiciousness formula tailored to MASs, which integrates two key factor groups, namely the agent behavior group and the action behavior group, to account for the agent activation patterns and the action activation patterns within the execution trajectories of MASs. Through expensive evaluations against 12 baselines on the Who and When benchmark, FAMAS demonstrates superior performance by outperforming all the methods in comparison.

Understanding electron irradiation effects is vital not only for reliable transmission electron microscopy characterization, but increasingly also for the controlled manipulation of two-dimensional materials. The displacement cross sections of monolayer hBN are measured using aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy in near ultra-high vacuum at primary beam energies between 50 and 90 keV. Damage rates below 80 keV are up to three orders of magnitude lower than previously measured at edges under poorer residual vacuum conditions where chemical etching appears to have been dominant. Notably, is possible to create single vacancies in hBN using electron irradiation, with boron almost twice as likely as nitrogen to be ejected below 80 keV. Moreover, any damage at such low energies cannot be explained by elastic knock-on, even when accounting for vibrations of the atoms. A theoretical description is developed to account for lowering of the displacement threshold due to valence ionization resulting from inelastic scattering of probe electrons, modelled using charge-constrained density functional theory molecular dynamics. Although significant reductions are found depending on the constrained charge, quantitative predictions for realistic ionization states are currently not possible. Nonetheless, there is potential for defect-engineering of hBN at the level of single vacancies using electron irradiation.