Daily Papers

Information workers' productivity is significantly influenced by their cognitive states and physiological responses. AI assistants such as ChatGPT, Copilot, and others have become integral components of knowledge-intensive workplaces. These AI assistants utilize pre-defined user preferences and chat interaction histories, thus confining themselves to reactive exchanges, lacking sufficient adaptability. Consequently, they fail to cater to individual user preferences and are unable to adapt to their psychophysiological states, diminishing potential productivity gains. To bridge this gap, we introduce AwareLLM, a novel multimodal framework that integrates egocentric vision, pupillometry, eye-gaze tracking, posture detection, heart activity, and the inferencing capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to create a proactive and context-aware ecosystem. AwareLLM dynamically adapts to users' psychophysiological states while analyzing temporal patterns and behavioral tendencies to provide personalized and timely interventions. We evaluated AwareLLM through a user study with 20 participants, comparing it to a standard LLM assistant across multiple tasks. Our results show statistically significant improvements in task performance, along with reductions in cognitive fatigue and mental demand. Participants described AwareLLM's personalized interventions as timely and relevant, helping them boost their confidence and deepen engagement with their work. AwareLLM opens new avenues for Human-AI collaboration where technology adapts to our needs rather than us adhering to technological constraints.

AI assistance produces significant productivity gains across professional domains, particularly for novice workers. Yet how this assistance affects the development of skills required to effectively supervise AI remains unclear. Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition in the process. We conduct randomized experiments to study how developers gained mastery of a new asynchronous programming library with and without the assistance of AI. We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average. Participants who fully delegated coding tasks showed some productivity improvements, but at the cost of learning the library. We identify six distinct AI interaction patterns, three of which involve cognitive engagement and preserve learning outcomes even when participants receive AI assistance. Our findings suggest that AI-enhanced productivity is not a shortcut to competence and AI assistance should be carefully adopted into workflows to preserve skill formation -- particularly in safety-critical domains.

Agentic AI coding systems can inspect repositories, plan implementation steps, edit files, call tools, run tests, and submit pull requests. These capabilities make software and hardware development faster in some settings, but current evidence does not support the simple claim that autonomous code generation automatically improves engineering outcomes. Controlled studies report productivity gains in some enterprise tasks, slowdowns in mature open-source work, moderate but heterogeneous meta-analytic effects, and persistent failures in repository setup, dependency handling, permission gating, and hardware verification. This paper argues that the central problem is no longer prompt engineering; it is engineering process control. It synthesizes evidence from agentic software engineering, GitHub-scale adoption studies, repository-level agent configuration, productivity trials, issue-resolution benchmarks, and hardware/RTL verification research. It proposes Agentic Agile-V, a process framework that uses Agile-V as the lifecycle backbone and a task-level SCOPE-V loop - Specify, Constrain, Orchestrate, Prove, Evolve, and Verify - to convert conversational intent into structured engineering artifacts and acceptance evidence. The paper contributes: (i) a taxonomy of minimum input artifacts for agentic software, firmware, and hardware work; (ii) a conversation-to-contract gate that separates exploratory dialogue from implementation; (iii) risk-adaptive feature, bug-fix, testing, and hardware workflows; and (iv) an evidence-bundle acceptance model for agent-generated artifacts. The paper concludes that agentic AI does not eliminate engineering discipline; it increases the value of requirements, constraints, traceability, independent verification, and human approval.

Agentic code assistants are a new generation of AI systems capable of performing end-to-end software engineering tasks. While these systems promise unprecedented productivity gains, their behavior and effectiveness depend heavily on configuration files that define architectural constraints, coding practices, and tool usage policies. However, little is known about the structure and content of these configuration artifacts. This paper presents an empirical study of the configuration ecosystem of Claude Code, one of the most widely used agentic coding systems. We collected and analyzed 328 configuration files from public Claude Code projects to identify (i) the software engineering concerns and practices they specify and (ii) how these concerns co-occur within individual files. The results highlight the importance of defining a wide range of concerns and practices in agent configuration files, with particular emphasis on specifying the architecture the agent should follow.

AI agents are increasingly transacting on behalf of users -- delegating tasks, spending budgets, and negotiating with unfamiliar counterparties. Unlike human marketplaces, which operate under institutional designs refined over centuries, the rules governing emerging agent marketplaces are being built ad-hoc, and early choices tend to lock in. Understanding what dynamics these rules produce is urgent. We present diagon, a programmable market system serving as a rule-agnostic experimental testbed for institutional design in emerging agent cognitive-labour markets. diagon makes institutional choices experimentally manipulable: heterogeneous tool-using agents post jobs, bid, negotiate, execute, pay, and accumulate reputation, with every mechanism end-to-end observable. We instantiate one market form to demonstrate diagon. We find that market exchange generates more productivity gains over self-sufficient agents, but these gains depend strongly on institutional structure; for example, interventions such as identity transparency and stronger competitive selection can degrade market performance rather than improve it. These findings highlight concrete design requirements for the economic infrastructure of the agent era. Code and data are available at https://github.com/assassin808/diagon.

Software Engineering 3.0 marks a paradigm shift in software development, in which AI coding agents are no longer just assistive tools but active contributors. While prior empirical studies have examined productivity gains and acceptance patterns in AI-assisted development, the challenges associated with integrating agent-generated contributions remain less understood. In particular, merge conflicts, a fundamental aspect of collaborative software development, remain underexplored in this context. In this paper, we present AgenticFlict, a large-scale dataset of textual merge conflicts in AI coding agent pull requests (Agentic PRs). The dataset comprises 142K+ Agentic PRs collected from 59K+ repositories, of which 107K+ are successfully processed through deterministic merge simulation. Our pipeline identifies 29K+ PRs exhibiting merge conflicts, yielding a conflict rate of 27.67%, and extracts 336K+ fine-grained conflict regions across these instances. Our preliminary exploratory analysis indicates that merge conflicts are both frequent and often substantial in AI-generated contributions, with noticeable variation across agents, emphasizing the need to better understand and manage integration challenges in AI-assisted software development. The dataset, code and supplementary materials are available in zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19396916.

Large language model-based agents are rapidly evolving from simple conversational assistants into autonomous systems capable of performing complex, professional-level tasks in various domains. While these advancements promise significant productivity gains, they also introduce critical safety risks that remain under-explored. Existing safety evaluations primarily focus on simple, daily assistance tasks, failing to capture the intricate decision-making processes and potential consequences of misaligned behaviors in professional settings. To address this gap, we introduce SafePro, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the safety alignment of AI agents performing professional activities. SafePro features a dataset of high-complexity tasks across diverse professional domains with safety risks, developed through a rigorous iterative creation and review process. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art AI models reveals significant safety vulnerabilities and uncovers new unsafe behaviors in professional contexts. We further show that these models exhibit both insufficient safety judgment and weak safety alignment when executing complex professional tasks. In addition, we investigate safety mitigation strategies for improving agent safety in these scenarios and observe encouraging improvements. Together, our findings highlight the urgent need for robust safety mechanisms tailored to the next generation of professional AI agents.

We introduce DivEMT, the first publicly available post-editing study of Neural Machine Translation (NMT) over a typologically diverse set of target languages. Using a strictly controlled setup, 18 professional translators were instructed to translate or post-edit the same set of English documents into Arabic, Dutch, Italian, Turkish, Ukrainian, and Vietnamese. During the process, their edits, keystrokes, editing times and pauses were recorded, enabling an in-depth, cross-lingual evaluation of NMT quality and post-editing effectiveness. Using this new dataset, we assess the impact of two state-of-the-art NMT systems, Google Translate and the multilingual mBART-50 model, on translation productivity. We find that post-editing is consistently faster than translation from scratch. However, the magnitude of productivity gains varies widely across systems and languages, highlighting major disparities in post-editing effectiveness for languages at different degrees of typological relatedness to English, even when controlling for system architecture and training data size. We publicly release the complete dataset including all collected behavioral data, to foster new research on the translation capabilities of NMT systems for typologically diverse languages.

Automating enterprise workflows could unlock $4 trillion/year in productivity gains. Despite being of interest to the data management community for decades, the ultimate vision of end-to-end workflow automation has remained elusive. Current solutions rely on process mining and robotic process automation (RPA), in which a bot is hard-coded to follow a set of predefined rules for completing a workflow. Through case studies of a hospital and large B2B enterprise, we find that the adoption of RPA has been inhibited by high set-up costs (12-18 months), unreliable execution (60% initial accuracy), and burdensome maintenance (requiring multiple FTEs). Multimodal foundation models (FMs) such as GPT-4 offer a promising new approach for end-to-end workflow automation given their generalized reasoning and planning abilities. To study these capabilities we propose ECLAIR, a system to automate enterprise workflows with minimal human supervision. We conduct initial experiments showing that multimodal FMs can address the limitations of traditional RPA with (1) near-human-level understanding of workflows (93% accuracy on a workflow understanding task) and (2) instant set-up with minimal technical barrier (based solely on a natural language description of a workflow, ECLAIR achieves end-to-end completion rates of 40%). We identify human-AI collaboration, validation, and self-improvement as open challenges, and suggest ways they can be solved with data management techniques. Code is available at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/eclair-agents

This paper examines the tension between the benefits of generative artificial intelligence (AI) for scientific research and the unresolved governance questions that accompany its rapid adoption. Drawing on an academic roundtable held at the AI for Science and Innovation Workshop (Scuola IMT Alti Studi Lucca, April 2026) and on a fast-expanding empirical literature, it maps the disagreement within the research community across four stages of the research process: funding, research tasks, publication and peer review, and use and uptake. The empirical case for AI's productivity, augmentation, and democratization effects has strengthened. The picture changes once productivity is disaggregated: AI-assisted work shows measurable gains in publication volume and citation share, while the evidence on novelty, disruption, and breakthrough output remains ambiguous or negative. We argue that the divergence between private and social returns arises through three analytically distinct mechanisms, namely information asymmetry, negative externalities on a shared knowledge base, and depletion of research capacity, and that each calls for a different governance instrument. We propose Responsible Research with AI (RRAI), an extension of the Responsible Research and Innovation tradition organized around four principles that operate at different levels of the research system: disclosure, differentiation, narrative, and proportionality. RRAI builds on existing institutional scaffolding, including the EU AI Act, UNESCO, and the OECD, and aims to preserve AI's productivity gains while addressing systemic risks that individual researchers can neither observe nor manage on their own.

This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor, leading to unprecedented productivity gains but raising concerns about job disruption, income distribution, and the value of education and human capital. I explore what roles may remain for labor post-AGI, and which production factors will grow in importance. The paper then identifies eight key challenges for economic policy in the Age of AI: (1) inequality and income distribution, (2) education and skill development, (3) social and political stability, (4) macroeconomic policy, (5) antitrust and market regulation, (6) intellectual property, (7) environmental implications, and (8) global AI governance. It concludes by emphasizing how economists can contribute to a better understanding of these challenges.

The usage of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based on large language models, including ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude, for text generation has many exciting applications with the potential for phenomenal productivity gains. One issue is authorship attribution when using AI tools. This is especially important in an academic setting where the inappropriate use of generative AI tools may hinder student learning or stifle research by creating a large amount of automatically generated derivative work. Existing plagiarism detection systems can trace the source of submitted text but are not yet equipped with methods to accurately detect AI-generated text. This paper introduces the idea of direct origin detection and evaluates whether generative AI systems can recognize their output and distinguish it from human-written texts. We argue why current transformer-based models may be able to self-detect their own generated text and perform a small empirical study using zero-shot learning to investigate if that is the case. Results reveal varying capabilities of AI systems to identify their generated text. Google's Bard model exhibits the largest capability of self-detection with an accuracy of 94\%, followed by OpenAI's ChatGPT with 83\%. On the other hand, Anthropic's Claude model seems to be not able to self-detect.

Evaluation of large language models (LLMs) for code has primarily relied on static benchmarks, including HumanEval (Chen et al., 2021), which measure the ability of LLMs to generate complete code that passes unit tests. As LLMs are increasingly used as programmer assistants, we study whether gains on existing benchmarks translate to gains in programmer productivity when coding with LLMs, including time spent coding. In addition to static benchmarks, we investigate the utility of preference metrics that might be used as proxies to measure LLM helpfulness, such as code acceptance or copy rates. To do so, we introduce RealHumanEval, a web interface to measure the ability of LLMs to assist programmers, through either autocomplete or chat support. We conducted a user study (N=213) using RealHumanEval in which users interacted with six LLMs of varying base model performance. Despite static benchmarks not incorporating humans-in-the-loop, we find that improvements in benchmark performance lead to increased programmer productivity; however gaps in benchmark versus human performance are not proportional -- a trend that holds across both forms of LLM support. In contrast, we find that programmer preferences do not correlate with their actual performance, motivating the need for better, human-centric proxy signals. We also open-source RealHumanEval to enable human-centric evaluation of new models and the study data to facilitate efforts to improve code models.

Optimization plays a vital role in scientific research and practical applications. However, formulating a concrete optimization problem described in natural language into a mathematical form and selecting a suitable solver to solve the problem requires substantial domain expertise. We introduce OptimAI, a framework for solving Optimization problems described in natural language by leveraging LLM-powered AI agents, and achieve superior performance over current state-of-the-art methods. Our framework is built upon the following key roles: (1) a formulator that translates natural language problem descriptions into precise mathematical formulations; (2) a planner that constructs a high-level solution strategy prior to execution; and (3) a coder and a code critic capable of interacting with the environment and reflecting on outcomes to refine future actions. Ablation studies confirm that all roles are essential; removing the planner or code critic results in 5.8times and 3.1times drops in productivity, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce UCB-based debug scheduling to dynamically switch between alternative plans, yielding an additional 3.3times productivity gain. Our design emphasizes multi-agent collaboration, and our experiments confirm that combining diverse models leads to performance gains. Our approach attains 88.1% accuracy on the NLP4LP dataset and 82.3% on the Optibench dataset, reducing error rates by 58% and 52%, respectively, over prior best results.

Developers gain productivity by reusing readily available Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components. Such practices also bring some difficulties, such as managing licensing, components and related security. One approach to handle those difficulties is to use Software Bill of Materials (SBOMs). While there have been studies on the readiness of practitioners to embrace SBOMs and on the SBOM tools ecosystem, a large scale study on SBOM practices based on SBOM files produced in the wild is still lacking. A starting point for such a study is a large dataset of SBOM files found in the wild. We introduce such a dataset, consisting of over 78 thousand unique SBOM files, deduplicated from those found in over 94 million repositories. We include metadata that contains the standard and format used, quality score generated by the tool sbomqs, number of revisions, filenames and provenance information. Finally, we give suggestions and examples of research that could bring new insights on assessing and improving SBOM real practices.

A common expectation is that career productivity peaks rather early and then gradually declines with seniority. But whether this holds true is still an open question. Here we investigate the productivity trajectories of almost 8,500 scientists from over fifty disciplines using methods from time series analysis, dimensionality reduction, and network science, showing that there exist six universal productivity patterns in research. Based on clusters of productivity trajectories and network representations where researchers with similar productivity patterns are connected, we identify constant, u-shaped, decreasing, periodic-like, increasing, and canonical productivity patterns, with the latter two describing almost three-fourths of researchers. In fact, we find that canonical curves are the most prevalent, but contrary to expectations, productivity peaks occur much more frequently around mid-career rather than early. These results outline the boundaries of possible career paths in science and caution against the adoption of stereotypes in tenure and funding decisions.

We present an extended version of the AI Productivity Index (APEX-v1-extended), a benchmark for assessing whether frontier models are capable of performing economically valuable tasks in four jobs: investment banking associate, management consultant, big law associate, and primary care physician (MD). This technical report details the extensions to APEX-v1, including an increase in the held-out evaluation set from n = 50 to n = 100 cases per job (n = 400 total) and updates to the grading methodology. We present a new leaderboard, where GPT5 (Thinking = High) remains the top performing model with a score of 67.0%. APEX-v1-extended shows that frontier models still have substantial limitations when performing typical professional tasks. To support further research, we are open sourcing n = 25 non-benchmark example cases per role (n = 100 total) along with our evaluation harness.

Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to boost human productivity by speeding up task completion -- provided users know when to offload cognitive work to them. But we do not know if users are well-calibrated in estimating these potential time savings. We conducted a preregistered large-scale behavioral study (N = 1237) to characterize mismatches between expectations and reality, with a focus on simple cognitive tasks. While actual completion times between independent completion and AI-assisted completion did not differ, participants predicted AI to be significantly faster. The same bias was not observed when imagining help from another human participant. We identify a speedup illusion where people have accurate forecasts of independent completion times but significantly underestimate AI-assisted times. Additionally, time and effort dissociate: participants reported lower subjective effort with AI despite equivalent completion times. This suggests that completion time itself is not sufficient to characterize efficiency gains.

State-of-the-art AI systems can be significantly improved without expensive retraining via "post-training enhancements"-techniques applied after initial training like fine-tuning the system to use a web browser. We review recent post-training enhancements, categorizing them into five types: tool-use, prompting methods, scaffolding, solution selection, and data generation. Different enhancements improve performance on different tasks, making it hard to compare their significance. So we translate improvements from different enhancements into a common currency, the compute-equivalent gain: how much additional training compute would be needed to improve performance by the same amount as the enhancement. Our non-experimental work shows that post-training enhancements have significant benefits: most surveyed enhancements improve benchmark performance by more than a 5x increase in training compute, some by more than 20x. Post-training enhancements are relatively cheap to develop: fine-tuning costs are typically <1% of the original training cost. Governing the development of capable post-training enhancements may be challenging because frontier models could be enhanced by a wide range of actors.

Despite widespread adoption, the impact of AI tools on software development in the wild remains understudied. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how AI tools at the February-June 2025 frontier affect the productivity of experienced open-source developers. 16 developers with moderate AI experience complete 246 tasks in mature projects on which they have an average of 5 years of prior experience. Each task is randomly assigned to allow or disallow usage of early 2025 AI tools. When AI tools are allowed, developers primarily use Cursor Pro, a popular code editor, and Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet. Before starting tasks, developers forecast that allowing AI will reduce completion time by 24%. After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%--AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter). To understand this result, we collect and evaluate evidence for 20 properties of our setting that a priori could contribute to the observed slowdown effect--for example, the size and quality standards of projects, or prior developer experience with AI tooling. Although the influence of experimental artifacts cannot be entirely ruled out, the robustness of the slowdown effect across our analyses suggests it is unlikely to primarily be a function of our experimental design.

Recursive self-improvement requires agents to turn accumulated experience into better future behavior. Personal AI agents offer a concrete setting for studying this capability because they retain preferences, task histories, tool routines, and learned skills across sessions. Yet whether retained experience actually improves them over time has not been systematically tested. We introduce PAST-Bench, a benchmark designed to isolate this question. Each agent runs through ordered sequences of fresh-session tasks under matched conditions that turn retained experience on and off. It spans 26 scenarios and 204 episodes across memory, procedural reuse, information gathering, and update. We report both later-task gains and whether those gains follow the intended save, retrieve, and update pathway. Across seven base models and four agent frameworks, improvement is real but uneven across capabilities. Agents with the same headline gain can differ markedly in whether that gain is supported by evidence of the intended pathway. Guided by these findings, we develop Hermes+, which extends Hermes with five targeted interventions across stages of the agent loop. Hermes+ raises the average gain from retained experience and provides clearer pathway evidence, with its strongest improvement on tasks requiring outdated state to be replaced, although the effect remains capability- and model-dependent. Together, PAST-Bench and Hermes+ provide an evaluation and diagnostic foundation for studying how persistent agents can progress from retaining experience to systematically improving through it. Code: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/PAST-Bench

The study on GitHub Copilot by GovTech Singapore's Engineering Productivity Programme (EPP) reveals significant potential for AI Code Assistant tools to boost developer productivity and improve application quality in the public sector. Highlighting the substantial benefits for the public sector, the study observed an increased productivity (coding / tasks speed increased by 21-28%), which translates into accelerated development, and quicker go-to-market, with a notable consensus (95%) that the tool increases developer satisfaction. Particularly, junior developers experienced considerable efficiency gains and reduced coding times, illustrating Copilot's capability to enhance job satisfaction by easing routine tasks. This advancement allows for a sharper focus on complex projects, faster learning, and improved code quality. Recognising the strategic importance of these tools, the study recommends the development of an AI Framework to maximise such benefits while cautioning against potential over-reliance without solid foundational programming skills. It also advises public sector developers to classify their code as "Open" to use Gen-AI Coding Assistant tools on the Cloud like GitHub Copilot and to consider self-hosted tools like Codeium or Code Llama for confidential code to leverage technology efficiently within the public sector framework. With up to 8,000 developers, comprising both public officers and vendors developing applications for the public sector and its customers, there is significant potential to enhance productivity.

This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on innovation, exploiting the randomized introduction of a new materials discovery technology to 1,018 scientists in the R&D lab of a large U.S. firm. AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, resulting in a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in downstream product innovation. These compounds possess more novel chemical structures and lead to more radical inventions. However, the technology has strikingly disparate effects across the productivity distribution: while the bottom third of scientists see little benefit, the output of top researchers nearly doubles. Investigating the mechanisms behind these results, I show that AI automates 57% of "idea-generation" tasks, reallocating researchers to the new task of evaluating model-produced candidate materials. Top scientists leverage their domain knowledge to prioritize promising AI suggestions, while others waste significant resources testing false positives. Together, these findings demonstrate the potential of AI-augmented research and highlight the complementarity between algorithms and expertise in the innovative process. Survey evidence reveals that these gains come at a cost, however, as 82% of scientists report reduced satisfaction with their work due to decreased creativity and skill underutilization.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

This work provides an in-depth analysis of the relation between the different types of collaboration and research productivity, showing how both are influenced by some personal and organizational variables. By applying different cross-lagged panel models, we are able to analyze the relationship among research productivity, collaboration and their determinants. In particular, we show that only collaboration at intramural and domestic level has a positive effect on research productivity. Differently, all the forms of collaboration are positively affected by research productivity. The results can favor the reexamination of the theories related to these issues, and inform policies that would be more suited to their management.

AI is increasingly used in the R\&D process that produces future AI systems. We study the conditions under which this feedback becomes self-amplifying. Our model describes how the rate of AI capability growth depends on baseline research productivity, recursive feedback, and the increasing difficulty of research progress. We derive a recursive reproduction number, R_{AI}, that determines whether improvements are amplified or damped across development cycles. This quantity compares the strength of feedback with the rate at which further progress becomes more difficult. When R_{AI}>1, the effects of improvements compound across development cycles, placing the system in a self-amplifying regime. When R_{AI}<1, their effects weaken across cycles. The transition depends on the structure of the AI R\&D feedback loop and need not occur at any particular level of model capability. A system can therefore enter a self-amplifying regime before acceleration becomes visible, while rapid progress can also occur without self-amplification. Higher baseline research productivity can accelerate progress without changing whether the system is self-amplifying, but the duration of the development cycle becomes a limiting timescale for amplification. Increasing research difficulty can end a period of self-amplification. Extending the model to multiple research actors shows that improvements shared across organizations can make the overall research ecosystem self-amplifying even when no individual actor is. The framework identifies measurable properties of AI R\&D systems that can help distinguish recursive amplification from rapid progress driven by other sources, including the strength of recursive feedback, how effectively improvements propagate into successor systems, cycle duration, and the increasing difficulty of further progress.

A growing literature argues that progress in human longevity is slowing, and that this slowdown may signal an approaching biological limit to lifespan. The argument rests on visible flattening of cumulative life expectancy records, evaluated through linear regressions or through comparisons of average gains across decades. These summaries, however, provide only weak evidence for slowing improvements, because they cannot distinguish a true from an apparent slowdown. An apparent slowdown may arise due to periods of low variance around unchanged mean annual gains. Applying a Bayesian change-point framework to annual gains, both at the best-practice frontier and separately for each record-holding country, we find no evidence that the expected annual gain has changed across nearly two centuries, but strong evidence that its variance has moved through distinct historical regimes, with progress most regular in recent decades. The recent flattening is consistent with a low-variance regime and provides little evidence for a decline in the underlying mean pace of improvement. Claims that the best-practice frontier signals a biological ceiling should therefore not rest on the recent bend in the cumulative record alone. The frontier is better read as an empirical benchmark, the highest country-specific survival achieved under observed historical conditions.

Generative AI tools hold promise to increase human productivity. This paper presents results from a controlled experiment with GitHub Copilot, an AI pair programmer. Recruited software developers were asked to implement an HTTP server in JavaScript as quickly as possible. The treatment group, with access to the AI pair programmer, completed the task 55.8% faster than the control group. Observed heterogenous effects show promise for AI pair programmers to help people transition into software development careers.

We introduce GDPval, a benchmark evaluating AI model capabilities on real-world economically valuable tasks. GDPval covers the majority of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Activities for 44 occupations across the top 9 sectors contributing to U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Tasks are constructed from the representative work of industry professionals with an average of 14 years of experience. We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality. We analyze the potential for frontier models, when paired with human oversight, to perform GDPval tasks cheaper and faster than unaided experts. We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval. Finally, we open-source a gold subset of 220 tasks and provide a public automated grading service at evals.openai.com to facilitate future research in understanding real-world model capabilities.