Daily Papers

Semi-Supervised Visual Grounding (SSVG) is a new challenge for its sparse labeled data with the need for multimodel understanding. A previous study, RefTeacher, makes the first attempt to tackle this task by adopting the teacher-student framework to provide pseudo confidence supervision and attention-based supervision. However, this approach is incompatible with current state-of-the-art visual grounding models, which follow the Transformer-based pipeline. These pipelines directly regress results without region proposals or foreground binary classification, rendering them unsuitable for fitting in RefTeacher due to the absence of confidence scores. Furthermore, the geometric difference in teacher and student inputs, stemming from different data augmentations, induces natural misalignment in attention-based constraints. To establish a compatible SSVG framework, our paper proposes the ACTive REtraining approach for Semi-Supervised Visual Grounding, abbreviated as ACTRESS. Initially, the model is enhanced by incorporating an additional quantized detection head to expose its detection confidence. Building upon this, ACTRESS consists of an active sampling strategy and a selective retraining strategy. The active sampling strategy iteratively selects high-quality pseudo labels by evaluating three crucial aspects: Faithfulness, Robustness, and Confidence, optimizing the utilization of unlabeled data. The selective retraining strategy retrains the model with periodic re-initialization of specific parameters, facilitating the model's escape from local minima. Extensive experiments demonstrates our superior performance on widely-used benchmark datasets.

Current methods for 3D semantic segmentation propose training models with limited annotations to address the difficulty of annotating large, irregular, and unordered 3D point cloud data. They usually focus on the 3D domain only, without leveraging the complementary nature of 2D and 3D data. Besides, some methods extend original labels or generate pseudo labels to guide the training, but they often fail to fully use these labels or address the noise within them. Meanwhile, the emergence of comprehensive and adaptable foundation models has offered effective solutions for segmenting 2D data. Leveraging this advancement, we present a novel approach that maximizes the utility of sparsely available 3D annotations by incorporating segmentation masks generated by 2D foundation models. We further propagate the 2D segmentation masks into the 3D space by establishing geometric correspondences between 3D scenes and 2D views. We extend the highly sparse annotations to encompass the areas delineated by 3D masks, thereby substantially augmenting the pool of available labels. Furthermore, we apply confidence- and uncertainty-based consistency regularization on augmentations of the 3D point cloud and select the reliable pseudo labels, which are further spread on the 3D masks to generate more labels. This innovative strategy bridges the gap between limited 3D annotations and the powerful capabilities of 2D foundation models, ultimately improving the performance of 3D weakly supervised segmentation.

While making a tremendous impact in various fields, deep neural networks usually require large amounts of labeled data for training which are expensive to collect in many applications, especially in the medical domain. Unlabeled data, on the other hand, is much more abundant. Semi-supervised learning techniques, such as co-training, could provide a powerful tool to leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, uncertainty-aware multi-view co-training (UMCT), to address semi-supervised learning on 3D data, such as volumetric data from medical imaging. In our work, co-training is achieved by exploiting multi-viewpoint consistency of 3D data. We generate different views by rotating or permuting the 3D data and utilize asymmetrical 3D kernels to encourage diversified features in different sub-networks. In addition, we propose an uncertainty-weighted label fusion mechanism to estimate the reliability of each view's prediction with Bayesian deep learning. As one view requires the supervision from other views in co-training, our self-adaptive approach computes a confidence score for the prediction of each unlabeled sample in order to assign a reliable pseudo label. Thus, our approach can take advantage of unlabeled data during training. We show the effectiveness of our proposed semi-supervised method on several public datasets from medical image segmentation tasks (NIH pancreas & LiTS liver tumor dataset). Meanwhile, a fully-supervised method based on our approach achieved state-of-the-art performances on both the LiTS liver tumor segmentation and the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) challenge, demonstrating the robustness and value of our framework, even when fully supervised training is feasible.

Historical satellite imagery archive, such as Keyhole satellite data, offers rare insights into understanding early urban development and long-term transformation. However, severe quality degradation (e.g., distortion, misalignment, and spectral scarcity) and the absence of annotations have long hindered its analysis. To bridge this gap and enhance understanding of urban development, we introduce WakeupUrbanBench, an annotated segmentation dataset based on historical satellite imagery with the earliest observation time among all existing remote sensing (RS) datasets, along with a framework for unsupervised segmentation tasks, WakeupUSM. First, WakeupUrbanBench serves as a pioneer, expertly annotated dataset built on mid-20^{th} century RS imagery, involving four key urban classes and spanning 4 cities across 2 continents with nearly 1000 km^2 area of diverse urban morphologies, and additionally introducing one present-day city. Second, WakeupUSM is a novel unsupervised semantic segmentation framework for historical RS imagery. It employs a confidence-aware alignment mechanism and focal-confidence loss based on a self-supervised learning architecture, which generates robust pseudo-labels and adaptively prioritizes prediction difficulty and label reliability to improve unsupervised segmentation on noisy historical data without manual supervision. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate WakeupUSM significantly outperforms existing unsupervised segmentation methods both WakeupUrbanBench and public dataset, promising to pave the way for quantitative studies of long-term urban change using modern computer vision. Our benchmark and codes will be released at https://github.com/Tianxiang-Hao/WakeupUrban.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has enabled them to express their confidence in natural language, enhancing transparency and reliability. However, their confidence often exhibits overconfidence, the cause of which remains poorly understood. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the dynamics underlying verbalized confidence and identify answer-independence as a key factor, defined as the model's failure to condition confidence on its own answer. To address this, we propose ADVICE (Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation), a fine-tuning framework that facilitates answer-grounded confidence estimation. Extensive experiments show that ADVICE substantially improves confidence calibration while preserving task performance. Further analyses confirm that ADVICE strengthens answer-groundedness, leading to more balanced and well-calibrated confidence distributions. Our findings shed light on the origin of overconfidence and establish a framework for more trustworthy confidence verbalization.

Accurate confidence calibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for safe use in high-stakes domains, where clear verbalized confidence enhances user trust. Traditional methods that mimic reference confidence expressions often fail to capture the reasoning needed for accurate confidence assessment. We propose natural language critiques as a solution, ideally suited for confidence calibration, as precise gold confidence labels are hard to obtain and often require multiple generations. This paper studies how natural language critiques can enhance verbalized confidence, addressing: (1) What to critique: uncertainty (question-focused) or confidence (answer-specific)? Analysis shows confidence suits multiple-choice tasks, while uncertainty excels in open-ended scenarios. (2) How to critique: self-critique or critique calibration training? We propose Self-Critique, enabling LLMs to critique and optimize their confidence beyond mere accuracy, and CritiCal, a novel Critique Calibration training method that leverages natural language critiques to improve confidence calibration, moving beyond direct numerical optimization. Experiments show that CritiCal significantly outperforms Self-Critique and other competitive baselines, even surpassing its teacher model, GPT-4o, in complex reasoning tasks. CritiCal also shows robust generalization in out-of-distribution settings, advancing LLM's reliability.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (Tracing Verbalized Confidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

Linguistic cues such as "I believe" and "probably" offer an intuitive interface for communicating confidence, yet a generalisable, principled calibration framework for linguistic confidence expressions remains underexplored. In particular, co-occurring linguistic cues, contextual variation, and subjective audience interpretation pose unique challenges. We therefore model linguistic confidence as a distribution over plausible perceived probability values that a statement is correct, capturing interpretation variability that scalar representations discard. Within this distributional framework, we introduce faithfulness as a complementary evaluation dimension and present Faithfulness Divergence (FD), an information-theoretic metric quantifying the surprise induced in audience beliefs upon truth revelation. Building on these foundations, we present Retrieval-Augmented Linguistic Calibration (RALC), a lightweight post-hoc pipeline that propagates calibrated confidence signals back into natural language via retrieval-augmented rewriting. Across three QA benchmarks and five LLM families, RALC improves in-domain faithfulness and calibration up to 66% and 58%, respectively, outperforming black-box and grey-box calibration baselines.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often augmented with external information as contexts, but this external information can sometimes be inaccurate or even intentionally misleading. We argue that robust LLMs should demonstrate situated faithfulness, dynamically calibrating their trust in external information based on their confidence in the internal knowledge and the external context. To benchmark this capability, we evaluate LLMs across several QA datasets, including a newly created dataset called RedditQA featuring in-the-wild incorrect contexts sourced from Reddit posts. We show that when provided with both correct and incorrect contexts, both open-source and proprietary models tend to overly rely on external information, regardless of its factual accuracy. To enhance situated faithfulness, we propose two approaches: Self-Guided Confidence Reasoning (SCR) and Rule-Based Confidence Reasoning (RCR). SCR enables models to self-access the confidence of external information relative to their own internal knowledge to produce the most accurate answer. RCR, in contrast, extracts explicit confidence signals from the LLM and determines the final answer using predefined rules. Our results show that for LLMs with strong reasoning capabilities, such as GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini, SCR outperforms RCR, achieving improvements of up to 24.2% over a direct input augmentation baseline. Conversely, for a smaller model like Llama-3-8B, RCR outperforms SCR. Fine-tuning SCR with our proposed Confidence Reasoning Direct Preference Optimization (CR-DPO) method improves performance on both seen and unseen datasets, yielding an average improvement of 8.9% on Llama-3-8B. In addition to quantitative results, we offer insights into the relative strengths of SCR and RCR. Our findings highlight promising avenues for improving situated faithfulness in LLMs. The data and code are released.

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

Generalizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to novel video domains is essential for real-world deployment but remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data. While In-Context Learning (ICL) offers a training-free adaptation path, standard methods rely on large annotated pools, which are often impractical in specialized environments like industrial or surgical settings since they require the experts' annotations. To bridge this gap, we introduce VIOLA (Video In-cOntext Learning with minimal Annotation), a label-efficient framework that synergizes minimal expert supervision with abundant unlabeled data. First, to maximize the efficiency of a strict annotation budget, we propose density-uncertainty-weighted sampling. Unlike standard diversity or uncertainty strategies that risk selecting visual outliers, our method leverages density estimation to identify samples that are simultaneously diverse, representative, and informative. Second, to utilize the remaining unlabeled data without noise propagation, we construct a hybrid pool and introduce confidence-aware retrieval and confidence-aware prompting. These mechanisms explicitly model label reliability, retrieving demonstrations based on a composite score of similarity and confidence while enabling the MLLM to adaptively distinguish between verified ground truths and noisy pseudo-labels. Extensive experiments across nine diverse benchmarks using four MLLMs demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms various baselines in low-resource settings, achieving robust adaptation with minimal annotation costs.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

Entailment has been recognized as an important metric for evaluating natural language understanding (NLU) models, and recent studies have found that entailment pretraining benefits weakly supervised fine-tuning. In this work, we design a prompting strategy that formulates a number of different NLU tasks as contextual entailment. This approach improves the zero-shot adaptation of pretrained entailment models. Secondly, we notice that self-training entailment-based models with unlabeled data can significantly improve the adaptation performance on downstream tasks. To achieve more stable improvement, we propose the Simple Pseudo-Label Editing (SimPLE) algorithm for better pseudo-labeling quality in self-training. We also found that both pretrained entailment-based models and the self-trained models are robust against adversarial evaluation data. Experiments on binary and multi-class classification tasks show that SimPLE leads to more robust self-training results, indicating that the self-trained entailment models are more efficient and trustworthy than large language models on language understanding tasks.

While significant advances exist in pseudo-label generation for semi-supervised semantic segmentation, pseudo-label selection remains understudied. Existing methods typically use fixed confidence thresholds to retain high-confidence predictions as pseudo-labels. However, these methods cannot cope with network overconfidence tendency, where correct and incorrect predictions overlap significantly in high-confidence regions, making separation challenging and amplifying model cognitive bias. Meanwhile, the direct discarding of low-confidence predictions disrupts spatial-semantic continuity, causing critical context loss. We propose Confidence Separable Learning (CSL) to address these limitations. CSL formulates pseudo-label selection as a convex optimization problem within the confidence distribution feature space, establishing sample-specific decision boundaries to distinguish reliable from unreliable predictions. Additionally, CSL introduces random masking of reliable pixels to guide the network in learning contextual relationships from low-reliability regions, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of discarding uncertain predictions. Extensive experimental results on the Pascal, Cityscapes, and COCO benchmarks show that CSL performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/PanLiuCSU/CSL.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly state their confidence in natural language, provides a flexible and user-facing uncertainty signal that can be applied even when token logits are unavailable. However, existing verbalized-confidence methods often optimize answer generation and confidence generation jointly, which can cause confidence-alignment objectives to interfere with answer accuracy. In this work, we propose a decoupled and order-aware framework for verbalized confidence calibration. Our method first generates an answer and then estimates confidence conditioned on the fixed question--answer pair, allowing confidence optimization without directly perturbing the answer-generation process. To align confidence with correctness likelihood, we construct a sampling-based surrogate from multiple model completions and optimize rank-based reinforcement learning objectives that encourage responses with higher estimated correctness likelihood to receive higher verbalized confidence. Experiments on reasoning and knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that our method improves calibration and failure prediction performance while largely preserving answer accuracy. These results demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be more reliably aligned by decoupling confidence estimation from answer generation and optimizing the relative ordering of confidence across responses.

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study of faithful confidence calibration of LLMs, benchmarking models' ability to use linguistic expressions of uncertainty that faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty, across a comprehensive array of models, datasets, and prompting strategies. Our results demonstrate that LLMs largely fail at this task, and that existing interventions are insufficient: standard prompt approaches provide only marginal gains, and existing, factuality-based calibration techniques can even harm faithful calibration. To address this critical gap, we introduce MetaFaith, a novel prompt-based calibration approach inspired by human metacognition. We show that MetaFaith robustly improves faithful calibration across diverse models and task domains, enabling up to 61% improvement in faithfulness and achieving an 83% win rate over original generations as judged by humans.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it is that a RAG model's prediction is incorrect, resulting in uncontrollable risks in real-world applications. In this work, we emphasize the importance of risk control, ensuring that RAG models proactively refuse to answer questions with low confidence. Our research identifies two critical latent factors affecting RAG's confidence in its predictions: the quality of the retrieved results and the manner in which these results are utilized. To guide RAG models in assessing their own confidence based on these two latent factors, we develop a counterfactual prompting framework that induces the models to alter these factors and analyzes the effect on their answers. We also introduce a benchmarking procedure to collect answers with the option to abstain, facilitating a series of experiments. For evaluation, we introduce several risk-related metrics and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation has long turned on one question, which pseudo-labels to trust, and a generation of selection rules, dynamic thresholds, per-class curricula, soft confidence weights, answered it for the noisy, under-confident ResNet teachers of their day. Self-supervised foundation encoders change the regime: with a DINOv2 teacher, confidence saturates, so the filtering that helped a weak teacher can hurt a strong one. We propose CW-BASS v2, a saturation-aware pseudo-label selection method that reads the teacher's confidence regime rather than committing to one rule. It pairs held-out calibration, an unbiased per-class noise estimate, with a self-adaptive confidence floor that provably bounds retention away from 1, and combines them in a one-pass gate: measure the reliability of the teacher's confident set, pi_kept = Pr[correct | c >= tau], on a held-out slice, and filter strictly when it meets the confidence demanded (pi_kept >= tau), falling back to the adaptive floor otherwise. The boundary is the pre-existing operating threshold, not a value tuned to mIoU, and across six DINOv2 teachers it makes the correct strict-vs-floor call blind. CW-BASS v2 thus recovers the UniMatch V2 operating point on the saturated benchmarks by selecting strict (Pascal VOC 1/8 87.4 against its reported 87.9; Cityscapes within 0.5), and improves on it where the confident set is unreliable (pi_kept ~ 89%, ADE20K), where the floor edges ahead (+1.5 mIoU, single seed). The gate is principled because the failure it avoids is measured, not assumed: on a reliable, saturated teacher the confidence distribution's dynamic range collapses (98% of Pascal pixels >= 0.95), so an adaptive cutoff floods the retention mask and self-training decays into confirmation bias.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

It is important for Large Language Models to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, the mechanism of identifying known and unknown queries. This type of awareness can help models perform adaptive inference, such as invoking RAG, engaging in slow and deep thinking, or adopting the abstention mechanism, which is beneficial to the development of efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which aims to determine if the model is able to address a given query without generating any tokens. To this end, we introduce a novel and training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens. Empirical results on both factual QA and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our internal confidence can outperform several baselines. Furthermore, we showcase that our proposed method can be used for efficient RAG and model cascading, which is able to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance.

Reliable prediction by classifiers is crucial for their deployment in high security and dynamically changing situations. However, modern neural networks often exhibit overconfidence for misclassified predictions, highlighting the need for confidence estimation to detect errors. Despite the achievements obtained by existing methods on small-scale datasets, they all require training from scratch and there are no efficient and effective misclassification detection (MisD) methods, hindering practical application towards large-scale and ever-changing datasets. In this paper, we pave the way to exploit vision language model (VLM) leveraging text information to establish an efficient and general-purpose misclassification detection framework. By harnessing the power of VLM, we construct FSMisD, a Few-Shot prompt learning framework for MisD to refrain from training from scratch and therefore improve tuning efficiency. To enhance misclassification detection ability, we use adaptive pseudo sample generation and a novel negative loss to mitigate the issue of overconfidence by pushing category prompts away from pseudo features. We conduct comprehensive experiments with prompt learning methods and validate the generalization ability across various datasets with domain shift. Significant and consistent improvement demonstrates the effectiveness, efficiency and generalizability of our approach.

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to address the ongoing debate about its feasibility. Our research has identified an important latent factor - the "confidence" of LLMs - during the self-correction process. Overlooking this factor may cause the models to over-criticize themselves, resulting in unreliable conclusions regarding the efficacy of self-correction. We have experimentally observed that LLMs possess the capability to understand the "confidence" in their own responses. It motivates us to develop an "If-or-Else" (IoE) prompting framework, designed to guide LLMs in assessing their own "confidence", facilitating intrinsic self-corrections. We conduct extensive experiments and demonstrate that our IoE-based Prompt can achieve a consistent improvement regarding the accuracy of self-corrected responses over the initial answers. Our study not only sheds light on the underlying factors affecting self-correction in LLMs, but also introduces a practical framework that utilizes the IoE prompting principle to efficiently improve self-correction capabilities with "confidence". The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-CLeaR/IoE-Prompting.git.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Recent approaches for weakly supervised instance segmentations depend on two components: (i) a pseudo label generation model that provides instances which are consistent with a given annotation; and (ii) an instance segmentation model, which is trained in a supervised manner using the pseudo labels as ground-truth. Unlike previous approaches, we explicitly model the uncertainty in the pseudo label generation process using a conditional distribution. The samples drawn from our conditional distribution provide accurate pseudo labels due to the use of semantic class aware unary terms, boundary aware pairwise smoothness terms, and annotation aware higher order terms. Furthermore, we represent the instance segmentation model as an annotation agnostic prediction distribution. In contrast to previous methods, our representation allows us to define a joint probabilistic learning objective that minimizes the dissimilarity between the two distributions. Our approach achieves state of the art results on the PASCAL VOC 2012 data set, outperforming the best baseline by 4.2% mAP@0.5 and 4.8% mAP@0.75.

LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed. Reliable deployment therefore requires step-level confidence estimation: a calibrated probability that each proposed action is productive, available before the action is executed. Existing LLM confidence estimators are designed to score a response from the given prompt, but agent confidence also depends on execution consequences: whether similar actions in similar situations actually advanced the task after the environment responded. We introduce the \method (\methodshort), a self-evolving critic framework in which an LLM critic accumulates evidence from its own past judgments and their observed consequences. After each trajectory, a hindsight LLM that sees the full execution feedback votes on whether each step was productive. The resulting pseudo-labels populate a memory bank from which related productive and unproductive experiences are retrieved into the critic's prompt whenever a similar step recurs. \methodshort requires no training and uses no ground truth step labels. Across three agent benchmarks and three critic backbones, \methodshort attains the best calibration (ECE and Brier) and ranking (AUC) in every dataset--critic combination, reducing ECE by up to 54% relative to the strongest training-free baseline.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of confidence typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) is an alternative approach which focuses instead on label quality by characterizing and identifying label errors in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting with probabilistic thresholds to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Whereas numerous studies have developed these principles independently, here, we combine them, building on the assumption of a class-conditional noise process to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This results in a generalized CL which is provably consistent and experimentally performant. We present sufficient conditions where CL exactly finds label errors, and show CL performance exceeding seven recent competitive approaches for learning with noisy labels on the CIFAR dataset. Uniquely, the CL framework is not coupled to a specific data modality or model (e.g., we use CL to find several label errors in the presumed error-free MNIST dataset and improve sentiment classification on text data in Amazon Reviews). We also employ CL on ImageNet to quantify ontological class overlap (e.g., estimating 645 "missile" images are mislabeled as their parent class "projectile"), and moderately increase model accuracy (e.g., for ResNet) by cleaning data prior to training. These results are replicable using the open-source cleanlab release.

In this work, we address the real-world, challenging task of out-of-context misinformation detection, where a real image is paired with an incorrect caption for creating fake news. Existing approaches for this task assume the availability of large amounts of labeled data, which is often impractical in real-world, since it requires extensive manual intervention and domain expertise. In contrast, since obtaining a large corpus of unlabeled image-text pairs is much easier, here, we propose a semi-supervised protocol, where the model has access to a limited number of labeled image-text pairs and a large corpus of unlabeled pairs. Additionally, the occurrence of fake news being much lesser compared to the real ones, the datasets tend to be highly imbalanced, thus making the task even more challenging. Towards this goal, we propose a novel framework, Consensus from Vision-Language Models (CoVLM), which generates robust pseudo-labels for unlabeled pairs using thresholds derived from the labeled data. This approach can automatically determine the right threshold parameters of the model for selecting the confident pseudo-labels. Experimental results on benchmark datasets across challenging conditions and comparisons with state-of-the-art approaches demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework.

We propose a method for jointly inferring labels across a collection of data samples, where each sample consists of an observation and a prior belief about the label. By implicitly assuming the existence of a generative model for which a differentiable predictor is the posterior, we derive a training objective that allows learning under weak beliefs. This formulation unifies various machine learning settings; the weak beliefs can come in the form of noisy or incomplete labels, likelihoods given by a different prediction mechanism on auxiliary input, or common-sense priors reflecting knowledge about the structure of the problem at hand. We demonstrate the proposed algorithms on diverse problems: classification with negative training examples, learning from rankings, weakly and self-supervised aerial imagery segmentation, co-segmentation of video frames, and coarsely supervised text classification.

Common methods for aligning already-capable models with desired behavior rely on the ability of humans to provide supervision. However, future superhuman models will surpass the capability of humans. Therefore, humans will only be able to weakly supervise superhuman models. This expected deficiency of human evaluation would weaken the safety of future AI systems. Scalable oversight and weak-to-strong generalization are two complementary approaches to tackle this issue. In this paper, we attempt to combine the strengths of these two approaches to further improve alignment. Specifically, we investigate ways of improving human supervision with a strong pretrained model and then supervise the strong model with enhanced weak human supervision. To make iterative empirical progress, we consider an analogy: can we use a strong model to improve weak model supervision and then use it to supervise the strong model? We empirically test it by finetuning a small weak model on ground truth labels with the additional help from a large strong model, and then finetuning the strong model on labels generated by the weak model. We find that debate can assist a weak model in extracting trustworthy information from an untrustworthy strong model, which provides leverage as context on samples when training a weak model. We also show that an ensemble of weak models helps exploit long arguments generated by strong model debaters and obtain a more robust supervision estimate. Extensive experiments on the OpenAI weak-to-strong NLP benchmarks show that the combination approach leads to better alignment, which indicates that debate has the potential to help weak-to-strong generalization.

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

This paper explores the use of latent bootstrapping, an alternative self-supervision technique, for pretraining language models. Unlike the typical practice of using self-supervision on discrete subwords, latent bootstrapping leverages contextualized embeddings for a richer supervision signal. We conduct experiments to assess how effective this approach is for acquiring linguistic knowledge from limited resources. Specifically, our experiments are based on the BabyLM shared task, which includes pretraining on two small curated corpora and an evaluation on four linguistic benchmarks.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, correctness alone is insufficient. Reliable deployment requires maintaining truthful beliefs under contextual perturbations. Existing evaluations largely rely on point-wise confidence like Self-Consistency, which can mask brittle belief. We show that even facts answered with perfect self-consistency can rapidly collapse under mild contextual interference. To address this gap, we propose Neighbor-Consistency Belief (NCB), a structural measure of belief robustness that evaluates response coherence across a conceptual neighborhood. To validate the efficiency of NCB, we introduce a new cognitive stress-testing protocol that probes outputs stability under contextual interference. Experiments across multiple LLMs show that the performance of high-NCB data is relatively more resistant to interference. Finally, we present Structure-Aware Training (SAT), which optimizes context-invariant belief structure and reduces long-tail knowledge brittleness by approximately 30%. Code will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/belief.

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any LLM accessible only via a black-box API, whose training data remains unknown. By expending a bit of extra computation, users of any LLM API can now get the same response as they would ordinarily, as well as a confidence estimate that cautions when not to trust this response. Experiments on both closed and open-form Question-Answer benchmarks reveal that BSDetector more accurately identifies incorrect LLM responses than alternative uncertainty estimation procedures (for both GPT-3 and ChatGPT). By sampling multiple responses from the LLM and considering the one with the highest confidence score, we can additionally obtain more accurate responses from the same LLM, without any extra training steps. In applications involving automated evaluation with LLMs, accounting for our confidence scores leads to more reliable evaluation in both human-in-the-loop and fully-automated settings (across both GPT 3.5 and 4).

Masked language modeling is a widely used method for learning language representations, where the model predicts a randomly masked word in each input. However, this approach typically considers only a single correct answer during training, ignoring the variety of plausible alternatives that humans might choose. This issue becomes more pronounced when the input text is short, as the possible word distribution tends to have higher entropy, potentially causing the model to become overconfident in its predictions. To mitigate this, we propose a novel confidence regularizer that adaptively adjusts the regularization strength based on the input length. Experiments on the GLUE and SQuAD benchmarks show that our method improves both accuracy and expected calibration error

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a widely adopted approach for enhancing LLMs in scenarios that demand extensive factual knowledge. However, current RAG evaluations concentrate primarily on correctness, which may not fully capture the impact of retrieval on LLM uncertainty and reliability. To bridge this gap, we introduce URAG, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess the uncertainty of RAG systems across various fields like healthcare, programming, science, math, and general text. By reformulating open-ended generation tasks into multiple-choice question answering, URAG allows for principled uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction. We apply the evaluation pipeline to 8 standard RAG methods, measuring their performance through both accuracy and prediction-set sizes based on LAC and APS metrics. Our analysis shows that (1) accuracy gains often coincide with reduced uncertainty, but this relationship breaks under retrieval noise; (2) simple modular RAG methods tend to offer better accuracy-uncertainty trade-offs than more complex reasoning pipelines; and (3) no single RAG approach is universally reliable across domains. We further show that (4) retrieval depth, parametric knowledge dependence, and exposure to confidence cues can amplify confident errors and hallucinations. Ultimately, URAG establishes a systematic benchmark for analyzing and enhancing the trustworthiness of retrieval-augmented systems. Our code is available on GitHub.

In recent years, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant progress but continue to face inherent challenges in multimodal reasoning, which requires multi-level (e.g., perception, reasoning) and multi-granular (e.g., multi-step reasoning chain) advanced inferencing. Prior work on estimating model confidence tends to focus on the overall response for training and calibration, but fails to assess confidence in each reasoning step, leading to undesirable hallucination snowballing. In this work, we present MMBoundary, a novel framework that advances the knowledge boundary awareness of MLLMs through reasoning step confidence calibration. To achieve this, we propose to incorporate complementary textual and cross-modal self-rewarding signals to estimate confidence at each step of the MLLM reasoning process. In addition to supervised fine-tuning MLLM on this set of self-rewarded confidence estimation signal for initial confidence expression warm-up, we introduce a reinforcement learning stage with multiple reward functions for further aligning model knowledge and calibrating confidence at each reasoning step, enhancing reasoning chain self-correction. Empirical results show that MMBoundary significantly outperforms existing methods across diverse domain datasets and metrics, achieving an average of 7.5% reduction in multimodal confidence calibration errors and up to 8.3% improvement in task performance.

We present a principled approach to provide LLM-based evaluation with a rigorous guarantee of human agreement. We first propose that a reliable evaluation method should not uncritically rely on model preferences for pairwise evaluation, but rather assess the confidence of judge models and selectively decide when to trust its judgement. We then show that under this selective evaluation framework, human agreement can be provably guaranteed -- such that the model evaluation aligns with that of humans to a user-specified agreement level. As part of our framework, we also introduce Simulated Annotators, a novel confidence estimation method that significantly improves judge calibration and thus enables high coverage of evaluated instances. Finally, we propose Cascaded Selective Evaluation, where we use cheaper models as initial judges and escalate to stronger models only when necessary -- again, while still providing a provable guarantee of human agreement. Experimental results show that Cascaded Selective Evaluation guarantees strong alignment with humans, far beyond what LLM judges could achieve without selective evaluation. For example, on a subset of Chatbot Arena where GPT-4 almost never achieves 80% human agreement, our method, even while employing substantially cost-effective models such as Mistral-7B, guarantees over 80% human agreement with almost 80% test coverage.

When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an authoritative tone or elaborating with additional knowledge. For LLMs to be trustworthy knowledge sources, the confidence they convey should match their actual expertise; however, most current models tend towards overconfidence. To calibrate both implicit and explicit confidence markers, we introduce a pragmatic, listener-aware finetuning method (LACIE) that models the listener, considering not only whether an answer is right, but whether it will be accepted by a listener. We cast calibration as preference optimization, creating data via a two-agent game, where a speaker model's outputs are judged by a simulated listener. We then finetune three LLMs (Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, Llama3-70B) with LACIE, and show that the resulting models are better calibrated w.r.t. a simulated listener. Crucially, these trends transfer to human listeners, helping them correctly predict model correctness: we conduct a human evaluation where annotators accept or reject an LLM's answers, finding that training with LACIE results in 47% fewer incorrect answers being accepted while maintaining the same level of acceptance for correct answers. Furthermore, LACIE generalizes to another dataset, resulting in a large increase in truthfulness on TruthfulQA when trained on TriviaQA. Our analysis indicates that LACIE leads to a better confidence separation between correct and incorrect examples. Qualitatively, we find that a LACIE-trained model hedges more and implicitly signals certainty when it is correct by using an authoritative tone or including details. Finally, LACIE finetuning leads to an emergent increase in model abstention (e.g. saying "I don't know") for answers that are likely wrong.

In this paper we revisit the idea of pseudo-labeling in the context of semi-supervised learning where a learning algorithm has access to a small set of labeled samples and a large set of unlabeled samples. Pseudo-labeling works by applying pseudo-labels to samples in the unlabeled set by using a model trained on the combination of the labeled samples and any previously pseudo-labeled samples, and iteratively repeating this process in a self-training cycle. Current methods seem to have abandoned this approach in favor of consistency regularization methods that train models under a combination of different styles of self-supervised losses on the unlabeled samples and standard supervised losses on the labeled samples. We empirically demonstrate that pseudo-labeling can in fact be competitive with the state-of-the-art, while being more resilient to out-of-distribution samples in the unlabeled set. We identify two key factors that allow pseudo-labeling to achieve such remarkable results (1) applying curriculum learning principles and (2) avoiding concept drift by restarting model parameters before each self-training cycle. We obtain 94.91% accuracy on CIFAR-10 using only 4,000 labeled samples, and 68.87% top-1 accuracy on Imagenet-ILSVRC using only 10% of the labeled samples. The code is available at https://github.com/uvavision/Curriculum-Labeling

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Recent language models have shown remarkable performance on natural language understanding (NLU) tasks. However, they are often sub-optimal when faced with ambiguous samples that can be interpreted in multiple ways, over-confidently predicting a single label without consideration for its correctness. To address this issue, we propose a novel self-knowledge distillation method that enables models to learn label distributions more accurately by leveraging knowledge distilled from their lower layers. This approach also includes a learning phase that re-calibrates the unnecessarily strengthened confidence for training samples judged as extremely ambiguous based on the distilled distribution knowledge. We validate our method on diverse NLU benchmark datasets and the experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness in producing better label distributions. Particularly, through the process of re-calibrating the confidence for highly ambiguous samples, the issue of over-confidence when predictions for unseen samples do not match with their ground-truth labels has been significantly alleviated. This has been shown to contribute to generating better distributions than the existing state-of-the-art method. Moreover, our method is more efficient in training the models compared to the existing method, as it does not involve additional training processes to refine label distributions.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

Accurately assessing model confidence is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in mission-critical factual domains. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is widely adopted to improve grounding, confidence calibration in RAG settings remains poorly understood. We conduct a systematic study across four benchmarks, revealing that LLMs exhibit poor calibration performance due to noisy retrieved contexts. Specifically, contradictory or irrelevant evidence tends to inflate the model's false certainty, leading to severe overconfidence. To address this, we propose NAACL Rules (Noise-AwAre Confidence CaLibration Rules) to provide a principled foundation for resolving overconfidence under noise. We further design NAACL, a noise-aware calibration framework that synthesizes supervision from about 2K HotpotQA examples guided by these rules. By performing supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with this data, NAACL equips models with intrinsic noise awareness without relying on stronger teacher models. Empirical results show that NAACL yields substantial gains, improving ECE scores by 10.9% in-domain and 8.0% out-of-domain. By bridging the gap between retrieval noise and verbal calibration, NAACL paves the way for both accurate and epistemically reliable LLMs.

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence estimation methods for LLMs neglect the relevance between responses and contextual information, a crucial factor in output quality evaluation, particularly in scenarios where background knowledge is provided. To bridge this gap, we propose CRUX (Context-aware entropy Reduction and Unified consistency eXamination), the first framework that integrates context faithfulness and consistency for confidence estimation via two novel metrics. First, contextual entropy reduction represents data uncertainty with the information gain through contrastive sampling with and without context. Second, unified consistency examination captures potential model uncertainty through the global consistency of the generated answers with and without context. Experiments across three benchmark datasets (CoQA, SQuAD, QuAC) and two domain-specific datasets (BioASQ, EduQG) demonstrate CRUX's effectiveness, achieving the highest AUROC than existing baselines.

Self-training has shown great potential in semi-supervised learning. Its core idea is to use the model learned on labeled data to generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled samples, and in turn teach itself. To obtain valid supervision, active attempts typically employ a momentum teacher for pseudo-label prediction yet observe the confirmation bias issue, where the incorrect predictions may provide wrong supervision signals and get accumulated in the training process. The primary cause of such a drawback is that the prevailing self-training framework acts as guiding the current state with previous knowledge, because the teacher is updated with the past student only. To alleviate this problem, we propose a novel self-training strategy, which allows the model to learn from the future. Concretely, at each training step, we first virtually optimize the student (i.e., caching the gradients without applying them to the model weights), then update the teacher with the virtual future student, and finally ask the teacher to produce pseudo-labels for the current student as the guidance. In this way, we manage to improve the quality of pseudo-labels and thus boost the performance. We also develop two variants of our future-self-training (FST) framework through peeping at the future both deeply (FST-D) and widely (FST-W). Taking the tasks of unsupervised domain adaptive semantic segmentation and semi-supervised semantic segmentation as the instances, we experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our approach under a wide range of settings. Code will be made publicly available.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed to generate incorrect answers with high confidence, a phenomenon known as "overconfidence". Recent efforts have focused on calibrating LLMs' verbalized confidence: i.e., their expressions of confidence in text form, such as "I am 80% confident that...". Existing approaches either rely on prompt engineering or fine-tuning with heuristically generated uncertainty estimates, both of which have limited effectiveness and generalizability. Motivated by the notion of proper scoring rules for calibration in classical machine learning models, we introduce ConfTuner, a simple and efficient fine-tuning method that introduces minimal overhead and does not require ground-truth confidence scores or proxy confidence estimates. ConfTuner relies on a new loss function, tokenized Brier score, which we theoretically prove to be a proper scoring rule, intuitively meaning that it "correctly incentivizes the model to report its true probability of being correct". ConfTuner improves calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and generalizes to black-box models such as GPT-4o. Our results further show that better-calibrated confidence enables downstream gains in self-correction and model cascade, advancing the development of trustworthy LLM systems. The code is available at https://github.com/liushiliushi/ConfTuner.

Recently, it is shown that deploying a proper self-supervision is a prospective way to enhance the performance of supervised learning. Yet, the benefits of self-supervision are not fully exploited as previous pretext tasks are specialized for unsupervised representation learning. To this end, we begin by presenting three desirable properties for such auxiliary tasks to assist the supervised objective. First, the tasks need to guide the model to learn rich features. Second, the transformations involved in the self-supervision should not significantly alter the training distribution. Third, the tasks are preferred to be light and generic for high applicability to prior arts. Subsequently, to show how existing pretext tasks can fulfill these and be tailored for supervised learning, we propose a simple auxiliary self-supervision task, predicting localizable rotation (LoRot). Our exhaustive experiments validate the merits of LoRot as a pretext task tailored for supervised learning in terms of robustness and generalization capability. Our code is available at https://github.com/wjun0830/Localizable-Rotation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the Overconfidence Phenomenon in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce TH-Score, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose LLM-as-a-Fuser, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

We present Self Meta Pseudo Labels, a novel semi-supervised learning method similar to Meta Pseudo Labels but without the teacher model. We introduce a novel way to use a single model for both generating pseudo labels and classification, allowing us to store only one model in memory instead of two. Our method attains similar performance to the Meta Pseudo Labels method while drastically reducing memory usage.

Large language models (LLMs) can exhibit advanced reasoning yet still generate incorrect answers. We hypothesize that such errors frequently stem from spurious beliefs, propositions the model internally considers true but are incorrect. To address this, we propose a method to rectify the belief space by suppressing these spurious beliefs while simultaneously enhancing true ones, thereby enabling more reliable inferences. Our approach first identifies the beliefs that lead to incorrect or correct answers by prompting the model to generate textual explanations, using our Forward-Backward Beam Search (FBBS). We then apply unlearning to suppress the identified spurious beliefs and enhance the true ones, effectively rectifying the model's belief space. Empirical results on multiple QA datasets and LLMs show that our method corrects previously misanswered questions without harming overall model performance. Furthermore, our approach yields improved generalization on unseen data, suggesting that rectifying a model's belief space is a promising direction for mitigating errors and enhancing overall reliability.

Large reasoning models often reach correct answers through flawed intermediate steps, creating a gap between final accuracy and reasoning reliability. Existing alignment strategies address this with external verifiers or massive sampling, limiting scalability. In this work, we introduce CASPO (Confidence-Aware Step-wise Preference Optimization), a framework that aligns token-level confidence with step-wise logical correctness through iterative Direct Preference Optimization, without training a separate reward model. During inference, we propose Confidence-aware Thought (CaT), which leverages this calibrated confidence to dynamically prune uncertain reasoning branches with negligible O(V) latency. Experiments across ten benchmarks and multiple model families show that CASPO consistently improves reasoning reliability and inference efficiency. CASPO scales to Qwen3-8B-Base and surpasses tree-search baselines on AIME'24 and AIME'25 without using reward-model data. We also release a step-wise dataset with confidence annotations to support fine-grained analysis of reasoning reliability. Code is available at https://github.com/Thecommonirin/CASPO.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has shown strong capability in enhancing language models' knowledge and reducing AI generative hallucinations, driving its widespread use. However, complex tasks requiring multi-round retrieval remain challenging, and early attempts tend to be overly optimistic without a good sense of self-skepticism. Current multi-round RAG systems may continue searching even when enough information has already been retrieved, or they may provide incorrect answers without having sufficient information or knowledge. Existing solutions either require large amounts of expensive human-labeled process supervision data or lead to subpar performance. This paper aims to address these limitations by introducing a new framework, SIM-RAG, to explicitly enhance RAG systems' self-awareness and multi-round retrieval capabilities. To train SIM-RAG, we first let a RAG system self-practice multi-round retrieval, augmenting existing question-answer pairs with intermediate inner monologue reasoning steps to generate synthetic training data. For each pair, the system may explore multiple retrieval paths, which are labeled as successful if they reach the correct answer and unsuccessful otherwise. Using this data, we train a lightweight information sufficiency Critic. At inference time, the Critic evaluates whether the RAG system has retrieved sufficient information at each round, guiding retrieval decisions and improving system-level self-awareness through in-context reinforcement learning. Experiments across multiple prominent RAG benchmarks show that SIM-RAG is an effective multi-round RAG solution. Furthermore, this framework is system-efficient, adding a lightweight component to RAG without requiring modifications to existing LLMs or search engines, and data-efficient, eliminating the need for costly human-annotated mid-step retrieval process supervision data.

Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are capable of generating highly fluent responses to a wide variety of user prompts. However, LLMs are known to hallucinate facts and make non-factual statements which can undermine trust in their output. Existing fact-checking approaches either require access to token-level output probability distribution (which may not be available for systems such as ChatGPT) or external databases that are interfaced via separate, often complex, modules. In this work, we propose "SelfCheckGPT", a simple sampling-based approach that can be used to fact-check black-box models in a zero-resource fashion, i.e. without an external database. SelfCheckGPT leverages the simple idea that if a LLM has knowledge of a given concept, sampled responses are likely to be similar and contain consistent facts. However, for hallucinated facts, stochastically sampled responses are likely to diverge and contradict one another. We investigate this approach by using GPT-3 to generate passages about individuals from the WikiBio dataset, and manually annotate the factuality of the generated passages. We demonstrate that SelfCheckGPT can: i) detect non-factual and factual sentences; and ii) rank passages in terms of factuality. We compare our approach to several existing baselines and show that in sentence hallucination detection, our approach has AUC-PR scores comparable to grey-box methods, while SelfCheckGPT is best at passage factuality assessment.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their confidence and calibrating them across different tasks can help mitigate risks and enable LLMs to produce better generations. There has been a lot of recent research aiming to address this, but there has been no comprehensive overview to organize it and outline the main lessons learned. The present survey aims to bridge this gap. In particular, we outline the challenges and we summarize recent technical advancements for LLM confidence estimation and calibration. We further discuss their applications and suggest promising directions for future work.

Trustworthiness is an essential prerequisite for the real-world application of large language models. In this paper, we focus on the trustworthiness of language models with respect to retrieval augmentation. Despite being supported with external evidence, retrieval-augmented generation still suffers from hallucinations, one primary cause of which is the conflict between contextual and parametric knowledge. We deem that retrieval-augmented language models have the inherent capabilities of supplying response according to both contextual and parametric knowledge. Inspired by aligning language models with human preference, we take the first step towards aligning retrieval-augmented language models to a status where it responds relying merely on the external evidence and disregards the interference of parametric knowledge. Specifically, we propose a reinforcement learning based algorithm Trustworthy-Alignment, theoretically and experimentally demonstrating large language models' capability of reaching a trustworthy status without explicit supervision on how to respond. Our work highlights the potential of large language models on exploring its intrinsic abilities by its own and expands the application scenarios of alignment from fulfilling human preference to creating trustworthy agents.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is an increasingly important paradigm for post-training language models. However, we identify a pervasive Scaling Law of Miscalibration: while OPD effectively improves task accuracy, it systematically traps models in severe overconfidence. We trace this failure to an information mismatch: teacher supervision is formed under privileged context available during training, whereas the deployed model must report confidence using only deployment-time information. We formalize this perspective theoretically, showing that teacher-conditioned success is generally not a valid target for deployment-time confidence and that helpful privileged context induces entropy collapse and a systematic optimism bias. To address this, we propose a calibration-aware OPD framework, CaOPD, that estimates empirical confidence from model rollouts, replaces self-reported confidence with this student-grounded target, and distills the revised response through the same self-distillation pipeline. Experiments across various models and domains show that CaOPD achieves Pareto-optimal calibration while maintaining competitive capability, generalizing robustly under out-of-distribution and continual learning. Our findings highlight that capability distillation does not imply calibrated confidence, and that confidence should be treated as an essential objective in post-training. Code: https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/CaOPD

We introduce a simple, yet novel entropy-based framework to drive token efficiency in large language models during reasoning tasks. Our approach uses Shannon entropy from token-level logprobs as a confidence signal to enable early stopping, achieving 25-50% computational savings while maintaining task accuracy. Crucially, we demonstrate that entropy-based confidence calibration represents an emergent property of advanced post-training optimization present in modern reasoning models but notably absent in standard instruction-tuned and pre-trained models (Llama 3.3 70B). We show that the entropy threshold to stop reasoning varies from model to model but can be calculated easily in one shot using only a few examples from existing reasoning datasets. Our results indicate that advanced reasoning models often know that they've gotten a correct answer early on, and that this emergent confidence awareness can be exploited to save tokens and reduce latency. The framework demonstrates consistent performance across reasoning-optimized model families with 25-50% computational cost reduction while preserving accuracy, revealing that confidence mechanisms represent a distinguishing characteristic of modern post-trained reasoning systems versus their predecessors.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

In the realm of cross-modal retrieval, seamlessly integrating diverse modalities within multimedia remains a formidable challenge, especially given the complexities introduced by noisy correspondence learning (NCL). Such noise often stems from mismatched data pairs, which is a significant obstacle distinct from traditional noisy labels. This paper introduces Pseudo-Classification based Pseudo-Captioning (PC^2) framework to address this challenge. PC^2 offers a threefold strategy: firstly, it establishes an auxiliary "pseudo-classification" task that interprets captions as categorical labels, steering the model to learn image-text semantic similarity through a non-contrastive mechanism. Secondly, unlike prevailing margin-based techniques, capitalizing on PC^2's pseudo-classification capability, we generate pseudo-captions to provide more informative and tangible supervision for each mismatched pair. Thirdly, the oscillation of pseudo-classification is borrowed to assistant the correction of correspondence. In addition to technical contributions, we develop a realistic NCL dataset called Noise of Web (NoW), which could be a new powerful NCL benchmark where noise exists naturally. Empirical evaluations of PC^2 showcase marked improvements over existing state-of-the-art robust cross-modal retrieval techniques on both simulated and realistic datasets with various NCL settings. The contributed dataset and source code are released at https://github.com/alipay/PC2-NoiseofWeb.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) perform strongly in complex reasoning tasks via Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, but often suffer from verbose outputs caused by redundant content, increasing computational overhead, and degrading user experience. Existing compression methods either operate post-hoc pruning, risking disruption to reasoning coherence, or rely on sampling-based selection, which fails to intervene effectively during generation. In this work, we introduce a confidence-guided perspective to explain the emergence of redundant reflection in LRMs, identifying two key patterns: Confidence Deficit, where the model reconsiders correct steps due to low internal confidence, and Termination Delay, where reasoning continues even after reaching a confident answer. Based on this analysis, we propose ConCISE (Confidence-guided Compression In Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning), a framework that simplifies reasoning chains by reinforcing the model's confidence during inference, thus preventing the generation of redundant reflection steps. It integrates Confidence Injection to stabilize intermediate steps and Early Stopping to terminate reasoning when confidence is sufficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate that fine-tuning LRMs on ConCISE-generated data yields significantly shorter outputs, reducing length by up to approximately 50% under SimPO, while maintaining high task accuracy. ConCISE consistently outperforms existing baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.

The hallucination of non-existent facts by LLMs is an important problem given its widespread adoption across various applications. Previous research addresses this problem by analyzing the internal parameterized knowledge boundaries to estimate confidence. However, these studies focus on the single-problem setting and have not explored the more challenging multi-problem setting, which requires accurately answering multiple questions simultaneously. We introduce a novel method for the multi-problem setting, Multiple Answers and Confidence Stepwise Tuning (MAC-Tuning), that separates the learning of answer prediction and confidence estimation during fine-tuning on instruction data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines by up to 25\% in average precision.

We propose a new strategy for applying large pre-trained language models to novel tasks when labeled training data is limited. Rather than apply the model in a typical zero-shot or few-shot fashion, we treat the model as the basis for labeling functions in a weak supervision framework. To create a classifier, we first prompt the model to answer multiple distinct queries about an example and define how the possible responses should be mapped to votes for labels and abstentions. We then denoise these noisy label sources using the Snorkel system and train an end classifier with the resulting training data. Our experimental evaluation shows that prompting large language models within a weak supervision framework can provide significant gains in accuracy. On the WRENCH weak supervision benchmark, this approach can significantly improve over zero-shot performance, an average 19.5% reduction in errors. We also find that this approach produces classifiers with comparable or superior accuracy to those trained from hand-engineered rules.

We revisit self-training in the context of end-to-end speech recognition. We demonstrate that training with pseudo-labels can substantially improve the accuracy of a baseline model. Key to our approach are a strong baseline acoustic and language model used to generate the pseudo-labels, filtering mechanisms tailored to common errors from sequence-to-sequence models, and a novel ensemble approach to increase pseudo-label diversity. Experiments on the LibriSpeech corpus show that with an ensemble of four models and label filtering, self-training yields a 33.9% relative improvement in WER compared with a baseline trained on 100 hours of labelled data in the noisy speech setting. In the clean speech setting, self-training recovers 59.3% of the gap between the baseline and an oracle model, which is at least 93.8% relatively higher than what previous approaches can achieve.

This paper presents a novel technique for accelerating inference in large, pre-trained language models (LLMs) by introducing early exits during inference. The computational demands of these models, used across a wide range of applications, can be substantial. By capitalizing on the inherent variability in token complexity, our approach enables selective acceleration of the inference process. Specifically, we propose the integration of early exit ''heads'' atop existing transformer layers, which facilitate conditional terminations based on a confidence metric. These heads are trained in a self-supervised manner using the model's own predictions as training data, thereby eliminating the need for additional annotated data. The confidence metric, established using a calibration set, ensures a desired level of accuracy while enabling early termination when confidence exceeds a predetermined threshold. Notably, our method preserves the original accuracy and reduces computational time on certain tasks, leveraging the existing knowledge of pre-trained LLMs without requiring extensive retraining. This lightweight, modular modification has the potential to greatly enhance the practical usability of LLMs, particularly in applications like real-time language processing in resource-constrained environments.

The remarkable success of pretrained language models has motivated the study of what kinds of knowledge these models learn during pretraining. Reformulating tasks as fill-in-the-blanks problems (e.g., cloze tests) is a natural approach for gauging such knowledge, however, its usage is limited by the manual effort and guesswork required to write suitable prompts. To address this, we develop AutoPrompt, an automated method to create prompts for a diverse set of tasks, based on a gradient-guided search. Using AutoPrompt, we show that masked language models (MLMs) have an inherent capability to perform sentiment analysis and natural language inference without additional parameters or finetuning, sometimes achieving performance on par with recent state-of-the-art supervised models. We also show that our prompts elicit more accurate factual knowledge from MLMs than the manually created prompts on the LAMA benchmark, and that MLMs can be used as relation extractors more effectively than supervised relation extraction models. These results demonstrate that automatically generated prompts are a viable parameter-free alternative to existing probing methods, and as pretrained LMs become more sophisticated and capable, potentially a replacement for finetuning.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) often suffer from hallucinations, generating descriptions that include visual details absent from the input image. Recent preference alignment methods typically rely on supervision distilled from stronger models such as GPT. However, this offline paradigm introduces a Supervision-Perception Mismatch: the student model is forced to align with fine-grained details beyond its perceptual capacity, learning to guess rather than to see. To obtain reliable self-supervision for online learning, we identify a Generative-Discriminative Gap within LVLMs, where models exhibit higher accuracy on discriminative verification than open-ended generation. Leveraging this capability, we propose Online Self-CAlibRation (OSCAR), a framework that integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with a Dual-Granularity Reward Mechanism to construct preference data and iteratively refines the model via Direct Preference Optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OSCAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on hallucination benchmarks while improving general multimodal capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.

Understanding videos to localize moments with natural language often requires large expensive annotated video regions paired with language queries. To eliminate the annotation costs, we make a first attempt to train a natural language video localization model in zero-shot manner. Inspired by unsupervised image captioning setup, we merely require random text corpora, unlabeled video collections, and an off-the-shelf object detector to train a model. With the unpaired data, we propose to generate pseudo-supervision of candidate temporal regions and corresponding query sentences, and develop a simple NLVL model to train with the pseudo-supervision. Our empirical validations show that the proposed pseudo-supervised method outperforms several baseline approaches and a number of methods using stronger supervision on Charades-STA and ActivityNet-Captions.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

This paper considers Pseudo-Relevance Feedback (PRF) methods for dense retrievers in a resource constrained environment such as that of cheap cloud instances or embedded systems (e.g., smartphones and smartwatches), where memory and CPU are limited and GPUs are not present. For this, we propose a transformer-based PRF method (TPRF), which has a much smaller memory footprint and faster inference time compared to other deep language models that employ PRF mechanisms, with a marginal effectiveness loss. TPRF learns how to effectively combine the relevance feedback signals from dense passage representations. Specifically, TPRF provides a mechanism for modelling relationships and weights between the query and the relevance feedback signals. The method is agnostic to the specific dense representation used and thus can be generally applied to any dense retriever.

Reward models can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but they typically require extensive curated data and costly training. To mitigate these challenges, training-free approaches such as LLM-as-a-Judge leverage the intrinsic reasoning abilities of LLMs to evaluate responses, achieving promising results. Recent works have also indicated that model confidence can serve effectively as a reward metric, distinguishing between chain-of-thought (CoT) and non-CoT paths. However, the concept of using confidence as a reward has not been comprehensively studied. In this work, we systematically investigate Confidence-as-a-Reward (CRew), a simple yet powerful training-free method that utilizes token-level confidence in the model's final answers as a proxy for reward, especially suitable for close-ended tasks. Through extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that CRew outperforms existing training-free reward approaches on the MATH500 and RewardMATH benchmarks, and even surpasses most trained reward models. We further identify a strong correlation between CRew scores and the actual reasoning performance of the model. Additionally, we find that CRew can effectively filter high-quality training data. Building upon these insights, we propose CRew-DPO, a training strategy that constructs preference data from confidence scores combined with correctness signals. Finetuning with CRew-DPO further enhances the model's judging capabilities and consistently outperforms existing self-training methods.

Neural models have achieved great success on machine reading comprehension (MRC), many of which typically consist of two components: an evidence extractor and an answer predictor. The former seeks the most relevant information from a reference text, while the latter is to locate or generate answers from the extracted evidence. Despite the importance of evidence labels for training the evidence extractor, they are not cheaply accessible, particularly in many non-extractive MRC tasks such as YES/NO question answering and multi-choice MRC. To address this problem, we present a Self-Training method (STM), which supervises the evidence extractor with auto-generated evidence labels in an iterative process. At each iteration, a base MRC model is trained with golden answers and noisy evidence labels. The trained model will predict pseudo evidence labels as extra supervision in the next iteration. We evaluate STM on seven datasets over three MRC tasks. Experimental results demonstrate the improvement on existing MRC models, and we also analyze how and why such a self-training method works in MRC. The source code can be obtained from https://github.com/SparkJiao/Self-Training-MRC

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet confident-sounding responses, which can mislead others. This issue arises partly because agents do not consider how confident their peers are. To address this, we propose DebUnc, a debate framework that uses uncertainty metrics to assess agent confidence. Confidence is then conveyed through a modified attention mechanism that adjusts token weights, or through textual prompts. Evaluations across benchmarks show that attention-based methods are particularly effective and that performance continues to improve as uncertainty estimation becomes more reliable. The code is available at https://github.com/lukeyoffe/debunc.

In continual learning, many classifiers use softmax function to learn confidence. However, numerous studies have pointed out its inability to accurately determine confidence distributions for outliers, often referred to as epistemic uncertainty. This inherent limitation also curtails the accurate decisions for selecting what to forget and keep in previously trained confidence distributions over continual learning process. To address the issue, we revisit the effects of masking softmax function. While this method is both simple and prevalent in literature, its implication for retaining confidence distribution during continual learning, also known as stability, has been under-investigated. In this paper, we revisit the impact of softmax masking, and introduce a methodology to utilize its confidence preservation effects. In class- and task-incremental learning benchmarks with and without memory replay, our approach significantly increases stability while maintaining sufficiently large plasticity. In the end, our methodology shows better overall performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in the use with zero or small memory. This lays a simple and effective foundation of strongly stable replay-based continual learning.

Modeling semantic plausibility requires commonsense knowledge about the world and has been used as a testbed for exploring various knowledge representations. Previous work has focused specifically on modeling physical plausibility and shown that distributional methods fail when tested in a supervised setting. At the same time, distributional models, namely large pretrained language models, have led to improved results for many natural language understanding tasks. In this work, we show that these pretrained language models are in fact effective at modeling physical plausibility in the supervised setting. We therefore present the more difficult problem of learning to model physical plausibility directly from text. We create a training set by extracting attested events from a large corpus, and we provide a baseline for training on these attested events in a self-supervised manner and testing on a physical plausibility task. We believe results could be further improved by injecting explicit commonsense knowledge into a distributional model.

Recent prompt-based approaches allow pretrained language models to achieve strong performances on few-shot finetuning by reformulating downstream tasks as a language modeling problem. In this work, we demonstrate that, despite its advantages on low data regimes, finetuned prompt-based models for sentence pair classification tasks still suffer from a common pitfall of adopting inference heuristics based on lexical overlap, e.g., models incorrectly assuming a sentence pair is of the same meaning because they consist of the same set of words. Interestingly, we find that this particular inference heuristic is significantly less present in the zero-shot evaluation of the prompt-based model, indicating how finetuning can be destructive to useful knowledge learned during the pretraining. We then show that adding a regularization that preserves pretraining weights is effective in mitigating this destructive tendency of few-shot finetuning. Our evaluation on three datasets demonstrates promising improvements on the three corresponding challenge datasets used to diagnose the inference heuristics.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding effective ways to calibrate LLMs - especially when the only interface to the models is their generated text - remains a challenge. We propose APRICOT (auxiliary prediction of confidence targets): A method to set confidence targets and train an additional model that predicts an LLM's confidence based on its textual input and output alone. This approach has several advantages: It is conceptually simple, does not require access to the target model beyond its output, does not interfere with the language generation, and has a multitude of potential usages, for instance by verbalizing the predicted confidence or adjusting the given answer based on the confidence. We show how our approach performs competitively in terms of calibration error for white-box and black-box LLMs on closed-book question-answering to detect incorrect LLM answers.

In unsupervised adaptation for vision-language models such as CLIP, pseudo-labels derived from zero-shot predictions often exhibit significant noise, particularly under domain shifts or in visually complex scenarios. Conventional pseudo-label filtering approaches, which rely on fixed confidence thresholds, tend to be unreliable in fully unsupervised settings. In this work, we propose a novel adaptive pseudo-labeling framework that enhances CLIP's adaptation performance by integrating prototype consistency and neighborhood-based consistency. The proposed method comprises two key components: PICS, which assesses pseudo-label accuracy based on in-class feature compactness and cross-class feature separation; and NALR, which exploits semantic similarities among neighboring samples to refine pseudo-labels dynamically. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive weighting mechanism that adjusts the influence of pseudo-labeled samples during training according to their estimated correctness. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised adaptation scenarios, delivering more accurate pseudo-labels while maintaining computational efficiency.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident but incorrect answers in settings where abstention would be safer. Standard evaluation protocols, however, require a response and do not account for how confidence should guide decisions under different risk preferences. To address this gap, we introduce the Behavioral Alignment Score (BAS), a decision-theoretic metric for evaluating how well LLM confidence supports abstention-aware decision making. BAS is derived from an explicit answer-or-abstain utility model and aggregates realized utility across a continuum of risk thresholds, yielding a measure of decision-level reliability that depends on both the magnitude and ordering of confidence. We show theoretically that truthful confidence estimates uniquely maximize expected BAS utility, linking calibration to decision-optimal behavior. BAS is related to proper scoring rules such as log loss, but differs structurally: log loss penalizes underconfidence and overconfidence symmetrically, whereas BAS imposes an asymmetric penalty that strongly prioritizes avoiding overconfident errors. Using BAS alongside widely used metrics such as ECE and AURC, we then construct a benchmark of self-reported confidence reliability across multiple LLMs and tasks. Our results reveal substantial variation in decision-useful confidence, and while larger and more accurate models tend to achieve higher BAS, even frontier models remain prone to severe overconfidence. Importantly, models with similar ECE or AURC can exhibit very different BAS due to highly overconfident errors, highlighting limitations of standard metrics. We further show that simple interventions, such as top-k confidence elicitation and post-hoc calibration, can meaningfully improve confidence reliability. Overall, our work provides both a principled metric and a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating LLM confidence reliability.

Self-supervised pretraining has made few-shot learning possible for many NLP tasks. But the pretraining objectives are not typically adapted specifically for in-context few-shot learning. In this paper, we propose to use self-supervision in an intermediate training stage between pretraining and downstream few-shot usage with the goal to teach the model to perform in-context few shot learning. We propose and evaluate four self-supervised objectives on two benchmarks. We find that the intermediate self-supervision stage produces models that outperform strong baselines. Ablation study shows that several factors affect the downstream performance, such as the amount of training data and the diversity of the self-supervised objectives. Human-annotated cross-task supervision and self-supervision are complementary. Qualitative analysis suggests that the self-supervised-trained models are better at following task requirements.

With the recent emergence of foundation models trained on internet-scale data and demonstrating remarkable generalization capabilities, such foundation models have become more widely adopted, leading to an expanding range of application domains. Despite this rapid proliferation, the trustworthiness of foundation models remains underexplored. Specifically, the out-of-distribution detection (OoDD) capabilities of large vision-language models (LVLMs), such as GPT-4o, which are trained on massive multi-modal data, have not been sufficiently addressed. The disparity between their demonstrated potential and practical reliability raises concerns regarding the safe and trustworthy deployment of foundation models. To address this gap, we evaluate and analyze the OoDD capabilities of various proprietary and open-source LVLMs. Our investigation contributes to a better understanding of how these foundation models represent confidence scores through their generated natural language responses. Based on our observations, we propose a self-guided prompting approach, termed Reflexive Guidance (ReGuide), aimed at enhancing the OoDD capability of LVLMs by leveraging self-generated image-adaptive concept suggestions. Experimental results demonstrate that our ReGuide enhances the performance of current LVLMs in both image classification and OoDD tasks.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation adaptively determines when to retrieve during generation to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods rely on model-internal signals (e.g., logits, entropy), which are fundamentally unreliable because LLMs are typically ill-calibrated and often exhibit high confidence in erroneous outputs. We propose QuCo-RAG, which shifts from subjective confidence to objective statistics computed from pre-training data. Our method quantifies uncertainty through two stages: (1) before generation, we identify low-frequency entities indicating long-tail knowledge gaps; (2) during generation, we verify entity co-occurrence in the pre-training corpus, where zero co-occurrence often signals hallucination risk. Both stages leverage Infini-gram for millisecond-latency queries over 4 trillion tokens, triggering retrieval when uncertainty is high. Experiments on multi-hop QA benchmarks show QuCo-RAG achieves EM gains of 5--12 points over state-of-the-art baselines with OLMo-2 models, and transfers effectively to models with undisclosed pre-training data (Llama, Qwen, GPT), improving EM by up to 14 points. Domain generalization on biomedical QA further validates the robustness of our paradigm. These results establish corpus-grounded verification as a principled, practically model-agnostic paradigm for dynamic RAG. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhishanQ/QuCo-RAG.

This paper addresses the critical data scarcity that hinders the practical deployment of learning to defer (L2D) systems to the population. We introduce a context-aware, semi-supervised framework that uses meta-learning to generate expert-specific embeddings from only a few demonstrations. We demonstrate the efficacy of a dual-purpose mechanism, where these embeddings are used first to generate a large corpus of pseudo-labels for training, and subsequently to enable on-the-fly adaptation to new experts at test-time. The experiment results on three different datasets confirm that a model trained on these synthetic labels rapidly approaches oracle-level performance, validating the data efficiency of our approach. By resolving a key training bottleneck, this work makes adaptive L2D systems more practical and scalable, paving the way for human-AI collaboration in real-world environments. To facilitate reproducibility and address implementation details not covered in the main text, we provide our source code and training configurations at https://github.com/nil123532/learning-to-defer-to-a-population-with-limited-demonstrations.

Can we teach Large Language Models (LLMs) to refrain from hallucinating factual statements? In this paper we present a fine-tuning strategy that we call ConfQA, which can reduce hallucination rate from 20-40% to under 5% across multiple factuality benchmarks. The core idea is simple: when the LLM answers a question correctly, it is trained to continue with the answer; otherwise, it is trained to admit "I am unsure". But there are two key factors that make the training highly effective. First, we introduce a dampening prompt "answer only if you are confident" to explicitly guide the behavior, without which hallucination remains high as 15%-25%. Second, we leverage simple factual statements, specifically attribute values from knowledge graphs, to help LLMs calibrate the confidence, resulting in robust generalization across domains and question types. Building on this insight, we propose the Dual Neural Knowledge framework, which seamlessly select between internally parameterized neural knowledge and externally recorded symbolic knowledge based on ConfQA's confidence. The framework enables potential accuracy gains to beyond 95%, while reducing unnecessary external retrievals by over 30%.

In-context learning (ICL) enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform tasks using few demonstrations, facilitating task adaptation when labeled examples are hard to obtain. However, ICL is sensitive to the choice of demonstrations, and it remains unclear which demonstration attributes enable in-context generalization. In this work, we conduct a perturbation study of in-context demonstrations for low-resource Named Entity Detection (NED). Our surprising finding is that in-context demonstrations with partially correct annotated entity mentions can be as effective for task transfer as fully correct demonstrations. Based off our findings, we propose Pseudo-annotated In-Context Learning (PICLe), a framework for in-context learning with noisy, pseudo-annotated demonstrations. PICLe leverages LLMs to annotate many demonstrations in a zero-shot first pass. We then cluster these synthetic demonstrations, sample specific sets of in-context demonstrations from each cluster, and predict entity mentions using each set independently. Finally, we use self-verification to select the final set of entity mentions. We evaluate PICLe on five biomedical NED datasets and show that, with zero human annotation, PICLe outperforms ICL in low-resource settings where limited gold examples can be used as in-context demonstrations.

Learning visual knowledge from massive weakly-labeled web videos has attracted growing research interests thanks to the large corpus of easily accessible video data on the Internet. However, for video action recognition, the action of interest might only exist in arbitrary clips of untrimmed web videos, resulting in high label noises in the temporal space. To address this issue, we introduce a new method for pre-training video action recognition models using queried web videos. Instead of trying to filter out, we propose to convert the potential noises in these queried videos to useful supervision signals by defining the concept of Sub-Pseudo Label (SPL). Specifically, SPL spans out a new set of meaningful "middle ground" label space constructed by extrapolating the original weak labels during video querying and the prior knowledge distilled from a teacher model. Consequently, SPL provides enriched supervision for video models to learn better representations. SPL is fairly simple and orthogonal to popular teacher-student self-training frameworks without extra training cost. We validate the effectiveness of our method on four video action recognition datasets and a weakly-labeled image dataset to study the generalization ability. Experiments show that SPL outperforms several existing pre-training strategies using pseudo-labels and the learned representations lead to competitive results when fine-tuning on HMDB-51 and UCF-101 compared with recent pre-training methods.

Hallucinations in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) -- where the model generates content inconsistent with the input image -- pose significant risks in real-world applications, from misinformation in visual question answering to unsafe errors in decision-making. Existing benchmarks primarily test recognition accuracy, i.e., evaluating whether models can select the correct answer among distractors. This overlooks an equally critical capability for trustworthy AI: recognizing when none of the provided options are correct, a behavior reflecting epistemic humility. We present HumbleBench, a new hallucination benchmark designed to evaluate MLLMs' ability to reject plausible but incorrect answers across three hallucination types: object, relation, and attribute. Built from a panoptic scene graph dataset, we leverage fine-grained scene graph annotations to extract ground-truth entities and relations, and prompt GPT-4-Turbo to generate multiple-choice questions, followed by a rigorous manual filtering process. Each question includes a "None of the above" option, requiring models not only to recognize correct visual information but also to identify when no provided answer is valid. We evaluate a variety of state-of-the-art MLLMs -- including both general-purpose and specialized reasoning models -- on HumbleBench and share valuable findings and insights with the community. By incorporating explicit false-option rejection, HumbleBench fills a key gap in current evaluation suites, providing a more realistic measure of MLLM reliability in safety-critical settings. Our code and dataset are released publicly and can be accessed at https://github.com/maifoundations/HumbleBench.

We endow Large Language Models (LLMs) with fine-grained self-evaluation to refine multi-step reasoning inference. We propose an effective prompting approach that integrates self-evaluation guidance through stochastic beam search. Our approach explores the reasoning search space using a well-calibrated automatic criterion. This enables an efficient search to produce higher-quality final predictions. With the self-evaluation guided stochastic beam search, we also balance the quality-diversity trade-off in the generation of reasoning chains. This allows our approach to adapt well with majority voting and surpass the corresponding Codex-backboned baselines by 6.34%, 9.56%, and 5.46% on the GSM8K, AQuA, and StrategyQA benchmarks, respectively, in few-shot accuracy. Analysis of our decompositional reasoning finds it pinpoints logic failures and leads to higher consistency and robustness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/SelfEval-Guided-Decoding.

Factual hallucination remains a central challenge for large language models (LLMs). Existing mitigation approaches primarily rely on either external post-hoc verification or mapping uncertainty directly to abstention during fine-tuning, often resulting in overly conservative behavior. We propose VeriFY, a training-time framework that teaches LLMs to reason about factual uncertainty through consistency-based self-verification. VeriFY augments training with structured verification traces that guide the model to produce an initial answer, generate and answer a probing verification query, issue a consistency judgment, and then decide whether to answer or abstain. To address the risk of reinforcing hallucinated content when training on augmented traces, we introduce a stage-level loss masking approach that excludes hallucinated answer stages from the training objective while preserving supervision over verification behavior. Across multiple model families and scales, VeriFY reduces factual hallucination rates by 9.7 to 53.3 percent, with only modest reductions in recall (0.4 to 5.7 percent), and generalizes across datasets when trained on a single source. The source code, training data, and trained model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.

Recent advancements in video large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their video understanding and reasoning capabilities. However, their performance drops on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks that are underrepresented in training data. Traditional methods like fine-tuning on OOD datasets are impractical due to high computational costs. While In-context learning (ICL) with demonstration examples has shown promising generalization performance in language tasks and image-language tasks without fine-tuning, applying ICL to video-language tasks faces challenges due to the limited context length in Video LMMs, as videos require longer token lengths. To address these issues, we propose VideoICL, a novel video in-context learning framework for OOD tasks that introduces a similarity-based relevant example selection strategy and a confidence-based iterative inference approach. This allows to select the most relevant examples and rank them based on similarity, to be used for inference. If the generated response has low confidence, our framework selects new examples and performs inference again, iteratively refining the results until a high-confidence response is obtained. This approach improves OOD video understanding performance by extending effective context length without incurring high costs. The experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant performance gains, especially in domain-specific scenarios, laying the groundwork for broader video comprehension applications. Code will be released at https://github.com/KangsanKim07/VideoICL

We develop a principled procedure for determining when a large language model (LLM) should abstain from responding (e.g., by saying "I don't know") in a general domain, instead of resorting to possibly "hallucinating" a non-sensical or incorrect answer. Building on earlier approaches that use self-consistency as a more reliable measure of model confidence, we propose using the LLM itself to self-evaluate the similarity between each of its sampled responses for a given query. We then further leverage conformal prediction techniques to develop an abstention procedure that benefits from rigorous theoretical guarantees on the hallucination rate (error rate). Experimentally, our resulting conformal abstention method reliably bounds the hallucination rate on various closed-book, open-domain generative question answering datasets, while also maintaining a significantly less conservative abstention rate on a dataset with long responses (Temporal Sequences) compared to baselines using log-probability scores to quantify uncertainty, while achieveing comparable performance on a dataset with short answers (TriviaQA). To evaluate the experiments automatically, one needs to determine if two responses are equivalent given a question. Following standard practice, we use a thresholded similarity function to determine if two responses match, but also provide a method for calibrating the threshold based on conformal prediction, with theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the match prediction, which might be of independent interest.

Question Answering (QA) accounts for a significant portion of LLM usage "in the wild". However, LLMs sometimes produce false or misleading responses, also known as "hallucinations". Therefore, grounding the generated answers in contextually provided information -- i.e., providing evidence for the generated text -- is paramount for LLMs' trustworthiness. Providing this information is the task of context attribution. In this paper, we systematically study LLM-based approaches for this task, namely we investigate (i) zero-shot inference, (ii) LLM ensembling, and (iii) fine-tuning of small LMs on synthetic data generated by larger LLMs. Our key contribution is SynQA: a novel generative strategy for synthesizing context attribution data. Given selected context sentences, an LLM generates QA pairs that are supported by these sentences. This leverages LLMs' natural strengths in text generation while ensuring clear attribution paths in the synthetic training data. We show that the attribution data synthesized via SynQA is highly effective for fine-tuning small LMs for context attribution in different QA tasks and domains. Finally, with a user study, we validate the usefulness of small LMs (fine-tuned on synthetic data from SynQA) in context attribution for QA.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

Test-time reinforcement learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for enhancing the complex reasoning abilities of large language models in a completely label-free manner. Despite existing studies focusing on Pass@1 performance, optimizing Pass@k remains under-explored yet critical in label-free settings, which measures generation coverage for sustained exploration. Optimizing Pass@k in label-free setting is highly non-trivial, as directly applying the Pass@k advantage designs effective for RLVR yields unsatisfactory performance. Through in-depth empirical analysis, we discover the root causes hindering performance: pseudo-label estimations for low-confidence samples have a high probability of being incorrect, while candidate answers for high-confidence samples suffer from severe diversity collapse. To overcome these hurdles, we propose TTRL-CoCoV (Test-Time Reinforcement Learning with Confidence-Conditioned Verification), a novel confidence-adaptive framework that expands Pass@k coverage and improves Pass@1 performance. Based on our key insight that verification capability generally leads generation capability, TTRL-CoCoV employs a confidence-conditioned mechanism: for high-confidence samples, it bootstraps verifier and applies an exploration-enhancing reward to prevent diversity collapse; for low-confidence samples, it delegates pseudo-label selection to the verifier to filter incorrect pseudo-labels; and for medium-confidence samples, it bypasses verification entirely. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TTRL-CoCoV outperforms the best competing methods across 6 widely-recognized benchmarks, achieves average absolute gains of +9.8% in Pass@1 and +18.7% in Pass@16 over TTRL, and even achieves absolute Pass@1 improvements of up to +5.0% across multiple reasoning benchmarks when compared against fully supervised RL methods. Our code repository: https://github.com/shanjf666/CoCoV.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Despite the growing reasoning capabilities of recent large language models (LLMs), their internal mechanisms during the reasoning process remain underexplored. Prior approaches often rely on human-defined concepts (e.g., overthinking, reflection) at the word level to analyze reasoning in a supervised manner. However, such methods are limited, as it is infeasible to capture the full spectrum of potential reasoning behaviors, many of which are difficult to define in token space. In this work, we propose an unsupervised framework (namely, RISE: Reasoning behavior Interpretability via Sparse auto-Encoder) for discovering reasoning vectors, which we define as directions in the activation space that encode distinct reasoning behaviors. By segmenting chain-of-thought traces into sentence-level 'steps' and training sparse auto-encoders (SAEs) on step-level activations, we uncover disentangled features corresponding to interpretable behaviors such as reflection and backtracking. Visualization and clustering analyses show that these behaviors occupy separable regions in the decoder column space. Moreover, targeted interventions on SAE-derived vectors can controllably amplify or suppress specific reasoning behaviors, altering inference trajectories without retraining. Beyond behavior-specific disentanglement, SAEs capture structural properties such as response length, revealing clusters of long versus short reasoning traces. More interestingly, SAEs enable the discovery of novel behaviors beyond human supervision. We demonstrate the ability to control response confidence by identifying confidence-related vectors in the SAE decoder space. These findings underscore the potential of unsupervised latent discovery for both interpreting and controllably steering reasoning in LLMs.

We consider the learning from noisy labels (NL) problem which emerges in many real-world applications. In addition to the widely-studied synthetic noise in the NL literature, we also consider the pseudo labels in semi-supervised learning (Semi-SL) as a special case of NL. For both types of noise, we argue that the generalization performance of existing methods is highly coupled with the quality of noisy labels. Therefore, we counter the problem from a novel and unified perspective: learning from the auxiliary clean labels. Specifically, we propose the Rotational-Decoupling Consistency Regularization (RDCR) framework that integrates the consistency-based methods with the self-supervised rotation task to learn noise-tolerant representations. The experiments show that RDCR achieves comparable or superior performance than the state-of-the-art methods under small noise, while outperforms the existing methods significantly when there is large noise.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) mitigates hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge. However, conflicts between parametric knowledge and retrieved context pose challenges, particularly when retrieved information is unreliable or the model's internal knowledge is outdated. In such cases, LLMs struggle to determine whether to rely more on their own parameters or the conflicted context. To address this, we propose **CK-PLUG**, a plug-and-play method for controlling LLMs' reliance on parametric and contextual knowledge. We introduce a novel knowledge consistency metric, Confidence Gain, which detects knowledge conflicts by measuring entropy shifts in token probability distributions after context insertion. CK-PLUG then enables fine-grained control over knowledge preference by adjusting the probability distribution of tokens with negative confidence gain through a single tuning parameter. Experiments demonstrate CK-PLUG's ability to significantly regulate knowledge reliance in counterfactual RAG scenarios while maintaining generation fluency and knowledge accuracy. For instance, on Llama3-8B, memory recall (MR) of RAG response can be adjusted within a broad range (9.9%-71.9%), compared to the baseline of 42.1%. Moreover, CK-PLUG supports adaptive control based on the model's confidence in both internal and external knowledge, achieving consistent performance improvements across various general RAG tasks. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byronBBL/CK-PLUG{this https URL}.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities but still suffer from the issue of hallucinations. A significant type of this issue is the false premise hallucination, which we define as the phenomenon when LLMs generate hallucinated text when confronted with false premise questions. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the false premise hallucination and elucidate its internal working mechanism: a small subset of attention heads (which we designate as false premise heads) disturb the knowledge extraction process, leading to the occurrence of false premise hallucination. Based on our analysis, we propose FAITH (False premise Attention head constraIining for miTigating Hallucinations), a novel and effective method to mitigate false premise hallucinations. It constrains the false premise attention heads during the model inference process. Impressively, extensive experiments demonstrate that constraining only approximately 1% of the attention heads in the model yields a notable increase of nearly 20% of model performance.

Machine unlearning techniques aim to mitigate unintended memorization in large language models (LLMs). However, existing approaches predominantly focus on the explicit removal of isolated facts, often overlooking latent inferential dependencies and the non-deterministic nature of knowledge within LLMs. Consequently, facts presumed forgotten may persist implicitly through correlated information. To address these challenges, we propose a knowledge unlearning evaluation framework that more accurately captures the implicit structure of real-world knowledge by representing relevant factual contexts as knowledge graphs with associated confidence scores. We further develop an inference-based evaluation protocol leveraging powerful LLMs as judges; these judges reason over the extracted knowledge subgraph to determine unlearning success. Our LLM judges utilize carefully designed prompts and are calibrated against human evaluations to ensure their trustworthiness and stability. Extensive experiments on our newly constructed benchmark demonstrate that our framework provides a more realistic and rigorous assessment of unlearning performance. Moreover, our findings reveal that current evaluation strategies tend to overestimate unlearning effectiveness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Graph-COM/Knowledge_Unlearning.git.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown substantial capacity for generating fluent, contextually appropriate responses. However, they can produce hallucinated outputs, especially when a user query includes one or more false premises-claims that contradict established facts. Such premises can mislead LLMs into offering fabricated or misleading details. Existing approaches include pretraining, fine-tuning, and inference-time techniques that often rely on access to logits or address hallucinations after they occur. These methods tend to be computationally expensive, require extensive training data, or lack proactive mechanisms to prevent hallucination before generation, limiting their efficiency in real-time applications. We propose a retrieval-based framework that identifies and addresses false premises before generation. Our method first transforms a user's query into a logical representation, then applies retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to assess the validity of each premise using factual sources. Finally, we incorporate the verification results into the LLM's prompt to maintain factual consistency in the final output. Experiments show that this approach effectively reduces hallucinations, improves factual accuracy, and does not require access to model logits or large-scale fine-tuning.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal uncertainty signals, yet their expressed confidence is often miscalibrated and poorly discriminates between correct and incorrect answers. We investigate whether supervised fine-tuning can improve models' ability to communicate uncertainty and whether such improvements generalize across tasks and domains. We fine-tune LLMs on datasets spanning general knowledge, mathematics, and open-ended trivia, and evaluate two metacognitive tasks: (1) single-question confidence estimation, where the model assigns a numeric certainty to its answer, and (2) pairwise confidence comparison, where the model selects which of two answers it is more likely to answer correctly. We assess generalization to unseen domains, including medical and legal reasoning. Results show that fine-tuning improves calibration (alignment between stated confidence and accuracy) and discrimination (higher confidence for correct vs. incorrect responses) within and across domains. However, gains are task-specific: training on single-question calibration does not transfer to pairwise comparison, and vice versa. Multitask fine-tuning yields broader gains, lowering calibration error and strengthening discrimination in out-of-domain evaluations. This suggests that uncertainty communication in LLMs is trainable but requires multitask training to generalize effectively.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hallucinate, generating factually incorrect yet confident assertions. We argue this stems from the Transformer's Softmax function, which creates "Artificial Certainty" by collapsing ambiguous attention scores into a single probability distribution, discarding uncertainty information at each layer. To fix this, we introduce the Credal Transformer, which replaces standard attention with a Credal Attention Mechanism (CAM) based on evidential theory. CAM produces a "credal set" (a set of distributions) instead of a single attention vector, with the set's size directly measuring model uncertainty. We implement this by re-conceptualizing attention scores as evidence masses for a Dirichlet distribution: sufficient evidence recovers standard attention, while insufficient evidence yields a diffuse distribution, representing ambiguity. Empirically, the Credal Transformer identifies out-of-distribution inputs, quantifies ambiguity, and significantly reduces confident errors on unanswerable questions by abstaining. Our contribution is a new architecture to mitigate hallucinations and a design paradigm that integrates uncertainty quantification directly into the model, providing a foundation for more reliable AI.