Daily Papers

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

Scaling laws research has focused overwhelmingly on English -- yet the most prominent AI models explicitly serve billions of international users. In this work, we undertake the largest multilingual scaling laws study to date, totaling 774 multilingual training experiments, spanning 10M-8B model parameters, 400+ training languages and 48 evaluation languages. We introduce the Adaptive Transfer Scaling Law (ATLAS) for both monolingual and multilingual pretraining, which outperforms existing scaling laws' out-of-sample generalization often by more than 0.3 R^2. Our analyses of the experiments shed light on multilingual learning dynamics, transfer properties between languages, and the curse of multilinguality. First, we derive a cross-lingual transfer matrix, empirically measuring mutual benefit scores between 38 x 38=1444 language pairs. Second, we derive a language-agnostic scaling law that reveals how to optimally scale model size and data when adding languages without sacrificing performance. Third, we identify the computational crossover points for when to pretrain from scratch versus finetune from multilingual checkpoints. We hope these findings provide the scientific foundation for democratizing scaling laws across languages, and enable practitioners to efficiently scale models -- beyond English-first AI.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Many machine learning models based on neural networks exhibit scaling laws: their performance scales as power laws with respect to the sizes of the model and training data set. We use large-N field theory methods to solve a model recently proposed by Maloney, Roberts and Sully which provides a simplified setting to study neural scaling laws. Our solution extends the result in this latter paper to general nonzero values of the ridge parameter, which are essential to regularize the behavior of the model. In addition to obtaining new and more precise scaling laws, we also uncover a duality transformation at the diagrams level which explains the symmetry between model and training data set sizes. The same duality underlies recent efforts to design neural networks to simulate quantum field theories.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

We propose a scaling law that takes into account model size and training data while explicitly splitting the latter into training steps and batch size (called three-term law). Fitting the proposed law on a large set of training runs, we find that it correctly recovers the scaling of the optimal batch size. Moreover, because it makes use of training runs with suboptimal batch size, our proposed law can be robustly fit with a significantly smaller amount of training runs. We further show that the three-term law can be used to derive scaling laws for suboptimal batch sizes, and that it matches previous empirical findings related to the critical batch size.

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are finetuned for machine translation tasks. Specifically, we investigate how the choice of the pretraining data and its size affect downstream performance (translation quality) as judged by two metrics: downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score. Our experiments indicate that the size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between the pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior. With sufficient alignment, both downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score improve monotonically with more pretraining data. In such cases, we show that it is possible to predict the downstream BLEU score with good accuracy using a log-law. However, there are also cases where moderate misalignment causes the BLEU score to fluctuate or get worse with more pretraining, whereas downstream cross-entropy monotonically improves. By analyzing these observations, we provide new practical insights for choosing appropriate pretraining data.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model merging measured by cross-entropy. Despite its wide practical use, merging lacks a quantitative rule that predicts returns as we add experts or scale the model size. We identify a compact power law that links model size and expert number: the size-dependent floor decreases with model capacity, while the merging tail exhibits clear diminishing returns in the number of experts. The law holds in-domain and cross-domain, tightly fits measured curves across diverse architectures and methods (Average, TA, TIES, DARE), and explains two robust regularities: most gains arrive early, and variability shrinks as more experts are included. Building on this, we present a simple theory that explains why gains fall roughly as 1/k and links the floor and tail to properties of the base model and the diversity across domains. This law enables predictive planning: estimate how many experts are needed to reach a target loss, decide when to stop adding experts, and trade off scaling the base model versus adding experts under a fixed budget--turning merging from heuristic practice into a computationally efficient, planable alternative to multitask training. This suggests a scaling principle for distributed generative AI: predictable gains can be achieved by composing specialists, offering a complementary path toward AGI-level systems.

Discovering scaling laws for predicting model performance at scale is a fundamental and open-ended challenge, mostly reliant on slow, case specific human experimentation. To investigate the potential for LLMs to automate this process, we collect over 5,000 experiments from existing literature and curate seven diverse scaling law discovery tasks. While existing agents struggle to produce accurate law formulas, this paper introduces SLDAgent, an evolution-based agent that co-optimize the scaling law model and the parameters, enabling it to autonomously explore complex relationships between variables. For the first time, we demonstrates that SLDAgent can automatically discover laws that exhibit consistently more accurate extrapolation than their established, human-derived counterparts across all tasks. Through comprehensive analysis, we elucidate why these discovered laws are superior and verify their practical utility in both pretraining and finetuning applications. This work establishes a new paradigm for agentic scientific discovery, showing that AI systems can understand their own scaling behavior, and can contribute novel and practical knowledge back to the research community.

We propose an effective field-theoretic framework for analyzing Transformer attention through a thermodynamic lens. By constructing a Lagrangian on the information manifold equipped with the Fisher metric, we show that, within the Shannon--Boltzmann entropy framework, the Softmax function arises as a stationary solution minimizing a Helmholtz free energy functional. This establishes a formal correspondence between scaled dot-product attention and canonical ensemble statistics. Extending this mapping to macroscopic observables, we define an effective specific heat associated with fluctuations of the attention energy landscape. In controlled experiments on the modular addition task (p = 19--113), we observe a robust peak in this fluctuation measure that consistently precedes the onset of generalization. While no asymptotic power-law divergence is detected in this finite-depth regime, the reproducible enhancement of energy variance suggests a critical-like crossover accompanying representational reorganization. Our framework provides a unified statistical-mechanical perspective on attention scaling, training dynamics, and positional encoding, interpreting the phenomena as emergent properties of an effective thermodynamic system rather than isolated heuristics. Although the present results indicate finite-size crossover behavior rather than a strict phase transition, they motivate further investigation into scaling limits of deep architectures through fluctuation-based observables.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Grid-based approaches to approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search have been absent from modern scaling analyses. We present a systematic characterization of a multiprobe grid algorithm with respect to dataset size N and dimensionality d. Our experiments reveal a previously unreported d-scaling crossover on the GloVe embedding family, in which multiprobe grid search maintains an approximately constant dimensional scaling exponent while other graph-, tree-, and partitioning-based methods exhibit degrading throughput. The advantage comes with near-linear query scaling in N, but also with lower indexing cost than competing ANN methods. Our results suggest that grid-based methods such as multiprobe grid may be competitive in rebuild-heavy or high-dimensional settings where indexing cost and dimensional robustness dictate performance. More broadly, recent work has formalized self-attention as an ANN operation. Thus, the N- and d-scaling properties of ANN algorithms may guide cost analysis of efficient transformer architectures. Code is available at: https://github.com/weiz345/MultiProbeANN.

We present a functional form (that we refer to as a Unified Neural Scaling Law (UNSL)) that accurately models and extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks as multiple dimensions all vary simultaneously (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as one simultaneously varies the number of model parameters, training dataset size, number of training steps, number of inference steps, amount of compute, and various hyperparameters) for various architectures and for each of various tasks within a varied set of upstream and downstream tasks. This set includes large-scale vision, language, math, and reinforcement learning. When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

We present a smoothly broken power law functional form (that we refer to as a Broken Neural Scaling Law (BNSL)) that accurately models & extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as amount of compute used for training (or inference), number of model parameters, training dataset size, model input size, number of training steps, or upstream performance varies) for various architectures & for each of various tasks within a large & diverse set of upstream & downstream tasks, in zero-shot, prompted, & finetuned settings. This set includes large-scale vision, language, audio, video, diffusion, generative modeling, multimodal learning, contrastive learning, AI alignment, AI capabilities, robotics, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, continual learning, transfer learning, uncertainty estimation / calibration, OOD detection, adversarial robustness, distillation, sparsity, retrieval, quantization, pruning, fairness, molecules, computer programming/coding, math word problems, "emergent phase transitions", arithmetic, supervised learning, unsupervised/self-supervised learning, & reinforcement learning (single agent & multi-agent). When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set. Moreover, this functional form accurately models & extrapolates scaling behavior that other functional forms are incapable of expressing such as the nonmonotonic transitions present in the scaling behavior of phenomena such as double descent & the delayed, sharp inflection points present in the scaling behavior of tasks such as arithmetic. Lastly, we use this functional form to glean insights about the limit of the predictability of scaling behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/ethancaballero/broken_neural_scaling_laws

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

Learning-rate transfer can reduce the cost of training large language models: instead of sweeping learning rates at target scale, practitioners extrapolate from smaller runs. Existing approaches often assume that the optimal learning rate follows a log-linear scaling law in data scale and model size. We carefully examine and evaluate this scaling law. In our empirical study of GPT-2--style models from 22M to 707M parameters trained on 5B to 100B tokens, the optimal learning rate develops upward curvature at larger scales, leading to inaccurate extrapolation. We find that this curvature largely disappears when learning rates are replaced by effective learning rate (the step size in normalized weight space), and when data D extrapolation is used instead of model size N extrapolation. Next, we explain nonlinearity in scaling: weight-norm converges to equilibrium slower when optimal learning is small, requiring a larger step size to reduce the transient phase. Experiments with AdamH, which directly controls the effective learning rate, further support this explanation.

Many studies on scaling laws consider basic factors such as model size, model shape, dataset size, and compute power. These factors are easily tunable and represent the fundamental elements of any machine learning setup. But researchers have also employed more complex factors to estimate the test error and generalization performance with high predictability. These factors are generally specific to the domain or application. For example, feature diversity was primarily used for promoting syn-to-real transfer by Chen et al. (2021). With numerous scaling factors defined in previous works, it would be interesting to investigate how these factors may affect overall generalization performance in the context of self-supervised learning with CNN models. How do individual factors promote generalization, which includes varying depth, width, or the number of training epochs with early stopping? For example, does higher feature diversity result in higher accuracy held in complex settings other than a syn-to-real transfer? How do these factors depend on each other? We found that the last layer is the most diversified throughout the training. However, while the model's test error decreases with increasing epochs, its diversity drops. We also discovered that diversity is directly related to model width.

We introduce a family of random matrices where correlations between matrix elements are induced via interaction-derived Boltzmann factors. Varying these yields access to different ensembles. We find a universal scaling behavior of the finite-size statistics characterized by a heavy-tailed eigenvalue distribution whose extremes are governed by the Fréchet extreme value distribution for the case corresponding to a ferromagnetic Ising transition. The introduction of a finite density of nonlocal interactions restores standard random-matrix behavior. Suitably rescaled average extremes, playing a physical role as an order parameter, can thus discriminate aspects of the interaction structure; they also yield further nonuniversal information. In particular, the link between maximum eigenvalues and order parameters offers a potential route to resolving long-standing problems in statistical physics, such as deriving the exact magnetization scaling function in the two-dimensional Ising model at criticality.

Neural scaling laws describe how pre-training loss decays as power laws with training time, model size, and compute. This position paper argues that the exponents of these power laws are fixed by generic mechanisms: a one-third time scaling due to the strong nonlinearity of Softmax, an inverse width scaling due to representational superposition, and an inverse depth scaling due to ensemble averaging of Transformer layers. These mechanisms are robust to a wide range of data structures and architectural details, placing current large language models in a universality class with fixed exponents. The coefficients, however, are expected to be sensitive to data and architecture details, and directly determine practical quantities such as the optimal model shape and the compute-optimal frontier. We therefore argue that understanding the coefficients is the key to near-term performance improvements, and that a closer examination of the current universality class may reveal pathways to better universality classes.

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the inefficiencies of their upscaling mechanisms. This limitation poses significant challenges in adapting these models to increasingly more complex real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose an effective network architecture based purely on stacked factorization machines, and a synergistic upscaling strategy, collectively dubbed Wukong, to establish a scaling law in the domain of recommendation. Wukong's unique design makes it possible to capture diverse, any-order of interactions simply through taller and wider layers. We conducted extensive evaluations on six public datasets, and our results demonstrate that Wukong consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models quality-wise. Further, we assessed Wukong's scalability on an internal, large-scale dataset. The results show that Wukong retains its superiority in quality over state-of-the-art models, while holding the scaling law across two orders of magnitude in model complexity, extending beyond 100 Gflop or equivalently up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale of total training compute, where prior arts fall short.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test (T^2) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. T^2 modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@k modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from T^2 are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that T^2 scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making T^2 scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) predict model performance based on parameters like size and training data. However, differences in training configurations and data processing across model families lead to significant variations in benchmark performance, making it difficult for a single scaling law to generalize across all LLMs. On the other hand, training family-specific scaling laws requires training models of varying sizes for every family. In this work, we propose Skills Scaling Laws (SSLaws, pronounced as Sloth), a novel scaling law that leverages publicly available benchmark data and assumes LLM performance is driven by low-dimensional latent skills, such as reasoning and instruction following. These latent skills are influenced by computational resources like model size and training tokens but with varying efficiencies across model families. Sloth exploits correlations across benchmarks to provide more accurate and interpretable predictions while alleviating the need to train multiple LLMs per family. We present both theoretical results on parameter identification and empirical evaluations on 12 prominent benchmarks, from Open LLM Leaderboard v1/v2, demonstrating that Sloth predicts LLM performance efficiently and offers insights into scaling behaviors for complex downstream tasks and increased test-time compute.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Neural scaling laws, which in some domains can predict the performance of large neural networks as a function of model, data, and compute scale, are the cornerstone of building foundation models in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision. We study neural scaling in Scientific Machine Learning, focusing on models for weather forecasting. To analyze scaling behavior in as simple a setting as possible, we adopt a minimal, scalable, general-purpose Swin Transformer architecture, and we use continual training with constant learning rates and periodic cooldowns as an efficient training strategy. We show that models trained in this minimalist way follow predictable scaling trends and even outperform standard cosine learning rate schedules. Cooldown phases can be re-purposed to improve downstream performance, e.g., enabling accurate multi-step rollouts over longer forecast horizons as well as sharper predictions through spectral loss adjustments. We also systematically explore a wide range of model and dataset sizes under various compute budgets to construct IsoFLOP curves, and we identify compute-optimal training regimes. Extrapolating these trends to larger scales highlights potential performance limits, demonstrating that neural scaling can serve as an important diagnostic for efficient resource allocation. We open-source our code for reproducibility.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the modelx2013and the more data one has access tox2013the more one can improve performance. As models get deployed in a variety of real world scenarios, they inevitably face strategic environments. In this work, we consider the natural question of how the interplay of models and strategic interactions affects scaling laws. We find that strategic interactions can break the conventional view of scaling lawsx2013meaning that performance does not necessarily monotonically improve as models get larger and/ or more expressive (even with infinite data). We show the implications of this phenomenon in several contexts including strategic regression, strategic classification, and multi-agent reinforcement learning through examples of strategic environments in whichx2013by simply restricting the expressivity of one's model or policy classx2013one can achieve strictly better equilibrium outcomes. Motivated by these examples, we then propose a new paradigm for model-selection in games wherein an agent seeks to choose amongst different model classes to use as their action set in a game.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Optimal configuration of the learning rate (LR) is a fundamental yet formidable challenge in large-scale pre-training. Given the stringent trade-off between training costs and model performance, the pivotal question is whether the optimal LR can be accurately extrapolated from low-cost experiments. In this paper, we formalize this investigation into two distinct research paradigms: Fitting and Transfer. Within the Fitting Paradigm, we innovatively introduce a Scaling Law for search factor, effectively reducing the search complexity from O(n^3) to O(n*C_D*C_η) via predictive modeling. Within the Transfer Paradigm, we extend the principles of μTransfer to the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, broadening its applicability to encompass model depth, weight decay, and token horizons. By pushing the boundaries of existing hyperparameter research in terms of scale, we conduct a comprehensive comparison between these two paradigms. Our empirical results challenge the scalability of the widely adopted μ Transfer in large-scale pre-training scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a rigorous analysis through the dual lenses of training stability and feature learning to elucidate the underlying reasons why module-wise parameter tuning underperforms in large-scale settings. This work offers systematic practical guidelines and a fresh theoretical perspective for optimizing industrial-level pre-training.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law -- the finding that loss decreases as a power law with model size -- remains unclear. Starting from two empirical principles -- that LLMs represent more things than the model dimensions (widths) they have (i.e., representations are superposed), and that words or concepts in language occur with varying frequencies -- we constructed a toy model to study the loss scaling with model size. We found that when superposition is weak, meaning only the most frequent features are represented without interference, the scaling of loss with model size depends on the underlying feature frequency; if feature frequencies follow a power law, so does the loss. In contrast, under strong superposition, where all features are represented but overlap with each other, the loss becomes inversely proportional to the model dimension across a wide range of feature frequency distributions. This robust scaling behavior is explained geometrically: when many more vectors are packed into a lower dimensional space, the interference (squared overlaps) between vectors scales inversely with that dimension. We then analyzed four families of open-sourced LLMs and found that they exhibit strong superposition and quantitatively match the predictions of our toy model. The Chinchilla scaling law turned out to also agree with our results. We conclude that representation superposition is an important mechanism underlying the observed neural scaling laws. We anticipate that these insights will inspire new training strategies and model architectures to achieve better performance with less computation and fewer parameters.

Scaling laws are a critical component of the LLM development pipeline, most famously as a way to forecast training decisions such as 'compute-optimally' trading-off parameter count and dataset size, alongside a more recent growing list of other crucial decisions. In this work, we ask whether compute-optimal scaling behaviour can be skill-dependent. In particular, we examine knowledge and reasoning-based skills such as knowledge-based QA and code generation, and we answer this question in the affirmative: scaling laws are skill-dependent. Next, to understand whether skill-dependent scaling is an artefact of the pretraining datamix, we conduct an extensive ablation of different datamixes and find that, also when correcting for datamix differences, knowledge and code exhibit fundamental differences in scaling behaviour. We conclude with an analysis of how our findings relate to standard compute-optimal scaling using a validation set, and find that a misspecified validation set can impact compute-optimal parameter count by nearly 50%, depending on its skill composition.

Foundation models, or large atomistic models (LAMs), aim to universally represent the ground-state potential energy surface (PES) of atomistic systems as defined by density functional theory (DFT). The scaling law is pivotal in the development of large models, suggesting that their generalizability in downstream tasks consistently improves with increased model size, expanded training datasets, and larger computational budgets. In this study, we present DPA3, a multi-layer graph neural network founded on line graph series (LiGS), designed explicitly for the era of LAMs. We demonstrate that the generalization error of the DPA3 model adheres to the scaling law. The scalability in the number of model parameters is attained by stacking additional layers within DPA3. Additionally, the model employs a dataset encoding mechanism that decouples the scaling of training data size from the model size within its multi-task training framework. When trained as problem-oriented potential energy models, the DPA3 model exhibits superior accuracy in the majority of benchmark cases, encompassing systems with diverse features, including molecules, bulk materials, surface and cluster catalysts, two-dimensional materials, and battery materials. When trained as a LAM on the OpenLAM-v1 dataset, the DPA-3.1-3M model exhibits state-of-the-art performance in the LAMBench benchmark suite for LAMs, demonstrating lowest overall zero-shot generalization error across 17 downstream tasks from a broad spectrum of research domains. This performance suggests superior accuracy as an out-of-the-box potential model, requiring minimal fine-tuning data for downstream scientific applications.

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the over-parameterized regime, we examine a parallel direction: do similar scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning? In identifiable parametric models, such scaling laws can be derived in a straightforward manner by treating model parameters in a Bayesian way. In this case, for example, we obtain O(1/N) contraction rates for epistemic uncertainty with respect to the number of data N. However, in over-parameterized models, these guarantees do not hold, leading to largely unexplored behaviors. In this work, we empirically show the existence of scaling laws associated with various measures of predictive uncertainty with respect to dataset and model sizes. Through experiments on vision and language tasks, we observe such scaling laws for in- and out-of-distribution predictive uncertainty estimated through popular approximate Bayesian inference and ensemble methods. Besides the elegance of scaling laws and the practical utility of extrapolating uncertainties to larger data or models, this work provides strong evidence to dispel recurring skepticism against Bayesian approaches: "In many applications of deep learning we have so much data available: what do we need Bayes for?". Our findings show that "so much data" is typically not enough to make epistemic uncertainty negligible.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Scaling laws are well studied for language models and first-stage retrieval, but not for reranking. We present the first systematic study of scaling laws for cross-encoder rerankers across pointwise, pairwise, and listwise objectives. Across model size and training exposure, ranking quality follows predictable power laws, enabling larger rerankers to be forecast from smaller runs. Using models up to 150M parameters, we forecast 400M and 1B rerankers on MSMARCO-dev and TREC DL. Beyond forecasting, we derive compute-allocation rules from the fitted joint scaling law and compare them with equal-compute checkpoints, showing that retrieval metrics often favor data-heavy scaling, though the recommendation depends on the training objective. The forecasts are accurate and typically conservative, making them useful for planning expensive large-model training. These results provide practical scaling principles for industrial reranking systems, and we will release code and evaluation protocols.

In recent years, the scaling laws of recommendation models have attracted increasing attention, which govern the relationship between performance and parameters/FLOPs of recommenders. Currently, there are three mainstream architectures for achieving scaling in recommendation models, namely attention-based, TokenMixer-based, and factorization-machine-based methods, which exhibit fundamental differences in both design philosophy and architectural structure. In this paper, we propose a unified scaling architecture for recommendation systems, namely UniMixer, to improve scaling efficiency and establish a unified theoretical framework that unifies the mainstream scaling blocks. By transforming the rule-based TokenMixer to an equivalent parameterized structure, we construct a generalized parameterized feature mixing module that allows the token mixing patterns to be optimized and learned during model training. Meanwhile, the generalized parameterized token mixing removes the constraint in TokenMixer that requires the number of heads to be equal to the number of tokens. Furthermore, we establish a unified scaling module design framework for recommender systems, which bridges the connections among attention-based, TokenMixer-based, and factorization-machine-based methods. To further boost scaling ROI, a lightweight UniMixing module is designed, UniMixing-Lite, which further compresses the model parameters and computational cost while significantly improve the model performance. The scaling curves are shown in the following figure. Extensive offline and online experiments are conducted to verify the superior scaling abilities of UniMixer.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Optimization analyses for cross-entropy training rely on local Taylor models of the loss to predict whether a proposed step will decrease the objective. These surrogates are reliable only inside the Taylor convergence radius of the true loss along the update direction. That radius is set not by real-line curvature alone but by the nearest complex singularity. For cross-entropy, the softmax partition function F=sum_j exp(z_j) has complex zeros -- ``ghosts of softmax'' -- that induce logarithmic singularities in the loss and cap this radius. To make this geometry usable, we derive closed-form expressions under logit linearization along the proposed update direction. In the binary case, the exact radius is ρ^*=δ^2+ π^2/Δ_a. In the multiclass case, we obtain the lower bound ρ_a=π/Δ_a, where Δ_a=max_k a_k-min_k a_k is the spread of directional logit derivatives a_k=nabla z_kcdot v. This bound costs one Jacobian-vector product and reveals what makes a step fragile: samples that are both near a decision flip and highly sensitive to the proposed direction tighten the radius. The normalized step size r=τ/ρ_a separates safe from dangerous updates. Across six tested architectures and multiple step directions, no model fails for r<1, yet collapse appears once rge 1. Temperature scaling confirms the mechanism: normalizing by ρ_a shrinks the onset-threshold spread from standard deviation 0.992 to 0.164. A controller that enforces τleρ_a survives learning-rate spikes up to 10{,} 000times in our tests, where gradient clipping still collapses. Together, these results identify a geometric constraint on cross-entropy optimization that operates through Taylor convergence rather than Hessian curvature.

Neural scaling laws approximate a language model's loss as a power-law function of parameter count N and token count D. Following Chinchilla-style compute-optimal training, many studies fit scaling laws from runs performed under a fixed tokens-per-parameter (TPP) ratio k and set D = kN. We show that this collinear design, combined with the empirically common near-equality of the exponents governing N and D, induces an inherent ill-conditioning in the Gauss-Newton least-squares problem: the condition number of the design grows as the inverse square of the gap between the N and D-exponents. The scale coefficients become practically unidentifiable, with confidence intervals inflating by an order of magnitude or more, yielding a ``sloppy'' model whose extrapolations degrade sharply off the training ray. We prove this for four scaling-law formalisms and derive a closed-form TPP-diversity threshold that is necessary and sufficient for well-conditioned estimation. Empirically, non-collinear designs outperform collinear ones on held-out splits with a 97.3\% win rate across four laws, five corpora, multiple floating point precision modes. We further show the degeneracy is rooted in Jacobian geometry and is not an artifact of the loss function: any smooth estimation objective whose curvature involves the Jacobian inherits the same ill-conditioning.

Multi-objective optimization involving Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problems arises in various domains. A fundamental challenge in this context is the effective balancing of multiple objectives, each potentially operating on very different scales. This imbalance introduces complications such as the selection of appropriate weights when scalarizing multiple objectives into a single objective function. In this paper, we propose a novel technique for scaling QUBO objectives that uses an exact computation of the variance of each individual QUBO objective. By scaling each objective to have unit variance, we align all objectives onto a common scale, thereby allowing for more balanced solutions to be found when scalarizing the objectives with equal weights, as well as potentially assisting in the search or choice of weights during scalarization. Finally, we demonstrate its advantages through empirical evaluations on various multi-objective optimization problems. Our results are noteworthy since manually selecting scalarization weights is cumbersome, and reliable, efficient solutions are scarce.

Upweighting high-quality data in LLM pretraining often improves performance, but in datalimited regimes, especially under overtraining, stronger upweighting increases repetition and can degrade performance. However, standard scaling laws do not reliably extrapolate across mixture recipes or under repetitions, making the selection for optimal data recipes at scaling underdetermined. To solve this, we introduce InfoLaw (Information Scaling Laws), a data-aware scaling framework that predicts loss from consumed tokens, model size, data mixture weights, and repetition. The key idea is to model pretraining as information accumulation, where quality controls information density and repetition induces scaledependent diminishing returns. We first collect the model performance after training on datasets that vary in scale, quality distribution, and repetition level. Then we build up the modeling for information so that information accurately predicts those model performance. InfoLaw predicts performance on unseen data recipes and larger scale runs (up to 7B, 425B tokens) with 0.15% mean and 0.96% max absolute error in loss, and it extrapolates reliably across overtraining levels, enabling efficient data-recipe selection under varying compute budgets.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

In recent years, pretraining models have made significant advancements in the fields of natural language processing (NLP), computer vision (CV), and life sciences. The significant advancements in NLP and CV are predominantly driven by the expansion of model parameters and data size, a phenomenon now recognized as the scaling laws. However, research exploring scaling law in molecular pretraining models remains unexplored. In this work, we present Uni-Mol2 , an innovative molecular pretraining model that leverages a two-track transformer to effectively integrate features at the atomic level, graph level, and geometry structure level. Along with this, we systematically investigate the scaling law within molecular pretraining models, characterizing the power-law correlations between validation loss and model size, dataset size, and computational resources. Consequently, we successfully scale Uni-Mol2 to 1.1 billion parameters through pretraining on 800 million conformations, making it the largest molecular pretraining model to date. Extensive experiments show consistent improvement in the downstream tasks as the model size grows. The Uni-Mol2 with 1.1B parameters also outperforms existing methods, achieving an average 27% improvement on the QM9 and 14% on COMPAS-1D dataset.

Recent years have witnessed success of sequential modeling, generative recommender, and large language model for recommendation. Though the scaling law has been validated for sequential models, it showed inefficiency in computational capacity when considering real-world applications like recommendation, due to the non-linear(quadratic) increasing nature of the transformer model. To improve the efficiency of the sequential model, we introduced a novel approach to sequential recommendation that leverages personalization techniques to enhance efficiency and performance. Our method compresses long user interaction histories into learnable tokens, which are then combined with recent interactions to generate recommendations. This approach significantly reduces computational costs while maintaining high recommendation accuracy. Our method could be applied to existing transformer based recommendation models, e.g., HSTU and HLLM. Extensive experiments on multiple sequential models demonstrate its versatility and effectiveness. Source code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/PerSRec{https://github.com/facebookresearch/PerSRec}.

Pioneering advancements in large language model-powered agents have underscored the design pattern of multi-agent collaboration, demonstrating that collective intelligence can surpass the capabilities of each individual. Inspired by the neural scaling law, which posits that increasing neurons leads to emergent abilities, this study investigates whether a similar principle applies to increasing agents in multi-agent collaboration. Technically, we propose multi-agent collaboration networks (MacNet), which utilize directed acyclic graphs to organize agents and streamline their interactive reasoning via topological ordering, with solutions derived from their dialogues. Extensive experiments show that MacNet consistently outperforms baseline models, enabling effective agent collaboration across various network topologies and supporting cooperation among more than a thousand agents. Notably, we observed a small-world collaboration phenomenon, where topologies resembling small-world properties achieved superior performance. Additionally, we identified a collaborative scaling law, indicating that normalized solution quality follows a logistic growth pattern as scaling agents, with collaborative emergence occurring much earlier than previously observed instances of neural emergence. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/OpenBMB/ChatDev.

Under strictly controlled pre-training settings, we observe a Crossover: when unique data is limited, diffusion language models (DLMs) consistently surpass autoregressive (AR) models by training for more epochs. The crossover shifts later with more or higher-quality data, earlier with larger models, and persists across dense and sparse architectures. We attribute the gains to three compounding factors: (1) any-order modeling, (2) super-dense compute from iterative bidirectional denoising, and (3) built-in Monte Carlo augmentation; input or parameter noise improves AR under data constraint but cannot close the gap. At scale, a 1.7B DLM trained with a ~1.5T-token compute budget on 10B unique Python tokens overtakes an AR coder trained with strictly matched settings. In addition, a 1B-parameter DLM achieves > 56% accuracy on HellaSwag and > 33% on MMLU using only 1B tokens, without any special tricks, just by repeating standard pre-training data. We also show that rising validation cross-entropy does not imply degraded downstream performance in this regime.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Scaling up model and data size has been quite successful for the evolution of LLMs. However, the scaling law for the diffusion based text-to-image (T2I) models is not fully explored. It is also unclear how to efficiently scale the model for better performance at reduced cost. The different training settings and expensive training cost make a fair model comparison extremely difficult. In this work, we empirically study the scaling properties of diffusion based T2I models by performing extensive and rigours ablations on scaling both denoising backbones and training set, including training scaled UNet and Transformer variants ranging from 0.4B to 4B parameters on datasets upto 600M images. For model scaling, we find the location and amount of cross attention distinguishes the performance of existing UNet designs. And increasing the transformer blocks is more parameter-efficient for improving text-image alignment than increasing channel numbers. We then identify an efficient UNet variant, which is 45% smaller and 28% faster than SDXL's UNet. On the data scaling side, we show the quality and diversity of the training set matters more than simply dataset size. Increasing caption density and diversity improves text-image alignment performance and the learning efficiency. Finally, we provide scaling functions to predict the text-image alignment performance as functions of the scale of model size, compute and dataset size.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone require considerable costs in compute and energy. Here we focus on the scaling of error with dataset size and show how in theory we can break beyond power law scaling and potentially even reduce it to exponential scaling instead if we have access to a high-quality data pruning metric that ranks the order in which training examples should be discarded to achieve any pruned dataset size. We then test this improved scaling prediction with pruned dataset size empirically, and indeed observe better than power law scaling in practice on ResNets trained on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet. Next, given the importance of finding high-quality pruning metrics, we perform the first large-scale benchmarking study of ten different data pruning metrics on ImageNet. We find most existing high performing metrics scale poorly to ImageNet, while the best are computationally intensive and require labels for every image. We therefore developed a new simple, cheap and scalable self-supervised pruning metric that demonstrates comparable performance to the best supervised metrics. Overall, our work suggests that the discovery of good data-pruning metrics may provide a viable path forward to substantially improved neural scaling laws, thereby reducing the resource costs of modern deep learning.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

The superfluid phase transition dynamics and associated spontaneous vortex formation with the crossing of the critical temperature in a disk geometry is studied in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence by solving the Einstein-Abelian-Higgs model in an AdS_4 black hole. For a slow quench, the vortex density admits a universal scaling law with the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM), while for fast quenches, the density shows a universal scaling behavior as a function of the final temperature, that lies beyond the KZM prediction. The vortex number distribution in both the power-law and saturation regimes can be approximated by a normal distribution. However, the study of the universal scaling of the cumulants reveals non-normal features and indicates that vortex statistics in the newborn superfluid is best described by the Poisson binomial distribution, previously predicted in the KZM regime [Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 240602 (2020)]. This is confirmed by studying the cumulant scalings as a function of the quench time and the quench depth. Our work supports the existence of a universal defect number distribution that accommodates the KZM scaling, its breakdown at fast quenches, and the additional universal scaling laws as a function of the final value of the control parameter.

Recently, the Muon optimizer based on matrix orthogonalization has demonstrated strong results in training small-scale language models, but the scalability to larger models has not been proven. We identify two crucial techniques for scaling up Muon: (1) adding weight decay and (2) carefully adjusting the per-parameter update scale. These techniques allow Muon to work out-of-the-box on large-scale training without the need of hyper-parameter tuning. Scaling law experiments indicate that Muon achieves sim!2times computational efficiency compared to AdamW with compute optimal training. Based on these improvements, we introduce Moonlight, a 3B/16B-parameter Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) model trained with 5.7T tokens using Muon. Our model improves the current Pareto frontier, achieving better performance with much fewer training FLOPs compared to prior models. We open-source our distributed Muon implementation that is memory optimal and communication efficient. We also release the pretrained, instruction-tuned, and intermediate checkpoints to support future research.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

LLM-based agents for machine learning engineering (MLE) predominantly rely on tree search, a form of gradient-free optimization that uses scalar validation scores to rank candidates. As LLM reasoning capabilities improve, exhaustive enumeration becomes increasingly inefficient compared to directed updates, analogous to how accurate gradients enable efficient descent over random search. We introduce Gome, an MLE agent that operationalizes gradient-based optimization. Gome maps structured diagnostic reasoning to gradient computation, success memory to momentum, and multi-trace execution to distributed optimization. Under a closed-world protocol that isolates architectural effects from external knowledge, Gome achieves a state-of-the-art 35.1\% any-medal rate on MLE-Bench with a restricted 12-hour budget on a single V100 GPU. Scaling experiments across 10 models reveal a critical crossover: with weaker models, tree search retains advantages by compensating for unreliable reasoning through exhaustive exploration; as reasoning capability strengthens, gradient-based optimization progressively outperforms, with the gap widening at frontier-tier models. Given the rapid advancement of reasoning-oriented LLMs, this positions gradient-based optimization as an increasingly favorable paradigm. We release our codebase and GPT-5 traces at https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

OpenAI's Sora highlights the potential of video generation for developing world models that adhere to fundamental physical laws. However, the ability of video generation models to discover such laws purely from visual data without human priors can be questioned. A world model learning the true law should give predictions robust to nuances and correctly extrapolate on unseen scenarios. In this work, we evaluate across three key scenarios: in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and combinatorial generalization. We developed a 2D simulation testbed for object movement and collisions to generate videos deterministically governed by one or more classical mechanics laws. This provides an unlimited supply of data for large-scale experimentation and enables quantitative evaluation of whether the generated videos adhere to physical laws. We trained diffusion-based video generation models to predict object movements based on initial frames. Our scaling experiments show perfect generalization within the distribution, measurable scaling behavior for combinatorial generalization, but failure in out-of-distribution scenarios. Further experiments reveal two key insights about the generalization mechanisms of these models: (1) the models fail to abstract general physical rules and instead exhibit "case-based" generalization behavior, i.e., mimicking the closest training example; (2) when generalizing to new cases, models are observed to prioritize different factors when referencing training data: color > size > velocity > shape. Our study suggests that scaling alone is insufficient for video generation models to uncover fundamental physical laws, despite its role in Sora's broader success. See our project page at https://phyworld.github.io

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Pretraining scaling laws reveal that model capability improves predictably with data and compute. But learning from real world environments after deployment remains far less understood. Analyzing roughly 38,000 hours of agent interaction with the environment across 134 real world tasks, we find, to the best of our knowledge, the first evidence that overall performance during environment learning follows a log-sigmoid scaling law with remarkably high precision, reaching R^2 = 0.998. Across model generations, we also find that agent learning speed roughly doubles every three months. This discovery stems from EdgeBench, a suite of 134 real world tasks with ultra-long horizons, spanning scientific discovery, software engineering, combinatorial optimization, professional knowledge work, formal mathematics, and interactive games. Each task sustains at least 12 hours of continuous agent operation under rich, multilevel feedback, and is built through substantial expert effort. We publicly release 51 tasks and our full evaluation framework to accelerate the study of how agents learn from real world experience.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Scaling laws have emerged as important components of large language model (LLM) training as they can predict performance gains through scale, and provide guidance on important hyper-parameter choices that would otherwise be expensive. LLMs also rely on large, high-quality training datasets, like those sourced from (sometimes sensitive) user data. Training models on this sensitive user data requires careful privacy protections like differential privacy (DP). However, the dynamics of DP training are significantly different, and consequently their scaling laws are not yet fully understood. In this work, we establish scaling laws that accurately model the intricacies of DP LLM training, providing a complete picture of the compute-privacy-utility tradeoffs and the optimal training configurations in many settings.

Recent frontier large language models predominantly rely on Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures. Despite empirical progress, there is still no principled understanding of how hyperparameters should scale with network width N, expert width N_e, number of experts M, sparsity K, and depth L to ensure both stability and optimal performance at scale. We take a principled step toward resolving this gap by analyzing three different scaling regimes: (I) co-scaling Nasymp N_e, (II) co-scaling Nasymp Masymp K, and (III) full proportional scaling of N, N_e, M, and K. For each regime, we develop a novel Dynamical Mean Field Theory (DMFT) description of the limiting training dynamics of MoEs that provides a formal foundation for our analysis. Within this framework, we derive the unique parameterization for SGD and Adam satisfying all maximal-update (μ) desiderata. We then show that the resulting μP prescription does not reliably induce monotonic improvement with scale or robust learning-rate transfer. We trace these pathologies to scale-dependent observables in the aggregation dynamics, which motivates a refined set of desiderata that we term maximal scale stability. Guided by this principle, we derive a Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization (MSSP) for both SGD and Adam in all three scaling regimes, and characterize the corresponding limiting dynamics - qualitatively distinct from the μP limit - through a separate DMFT analysis. Experiments verify that MSSP robustly recovers learning rate transfer and monotonic improvement with scale across regimes. Combined with existing depth-scaling theory, these results provide a complete scaling prescription for MoE architectures as a function of width, depth, expert width, and number of experts.

Large language models exhibit exceptional generalization capabilities, primarily attributed to the utilization of diversely sourced data. However, conventional practices in integrating this diverse data heavily rely on heuristic schemes, lacking theoretical guidance. This research tackles these limitations by investigating strategies based on low-cost proxies for data mixtures, with the aim of streamlining data curation to enhance training efficiency. Specifically, we propose a unified scaling law, termed BiMix, which accurately models the bivariate scaling behaviors of both data quantity and mixing proportions. We conduct systematic experiments and provide empirical evidence for the predictive power and fundamental principles of BiMix. Notably, our findings reveal that entropy-driven training-free data mixtures can achieve comparable or even better performance than more resource-intensive methods. We hope that our quantitative insights can shed light on further judicious research and development in cost-effective language modeling.

Preserving training dynamics across batch sizes is an important tool for practical machine learning as it enables the trade-off between batch size and wall-clock time. This trade-off is typically enabled by a scaling rule, for example, in stochastic gradient descent, one should scale the learning rate linearly with the batch size. Another important tool for practical machine learning is the model Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a model copy that does not receive gradient information, but instead follows its target model with some momentum. This model EMA can improve the robustness and generalization properties of supervised learning, stabilize pseudo-labeling, and provide a learning signal for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). Prior works have treated the model EMA separately from optimization, leading to different training dynamics across batch sizes and lower model performance. In this work, we provide a scaling rule for optimization in the presence of model EMAs and demonstrate its validity across a range of architectures, optimizers, and data modalities. We also show the rule's validity where the model EMA contributes to the optimization of the target model, enabling us to train EMA-based pseudo-labeling and SSL methods at small and large batch sizes. For SSL, we enable training of BYOL up to batch size 24,576 without sacrificing performance, optimally a 6times wall-clock time reduction.

Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.

This paper introduces a novel Deep Researcher architecture designed to generate detailed research reports on complex PhD level topics by addressing the inherent limitations of the Parallel Scaling paradigm. Our system utilizes two key innovations: Sequential Research Plan Refinement via Reflection and a Candidates Crossover algorithm. The sequential refinement process is demonstrated as an efficient method that allows the agent to maintain a centralized Global Research Context, enabling it to look back at current progress, reason about the research plan, and intelligently make changes at runtime. This dynamic adaptation contrasts with parallel approaches, which often suffer from siloed knowledge. The Candidates Crossover algorithm further enhances search efficiency by deploying multiple LLM candidates with varied parameters to explore a larger search space, with their findings synthesized to curate a comprehensive final research response. The process concludes with One Shot Report Generation, ensuring the final document is informed by a unified narrative and high fact density. Powered by the Gemini 2.5 Pro model, our Deep Researcher was evaluated on the DeepResearch Bench, a globally recognized benchmark of 100 doctoral level research tasks. Our architecture achieved an overall score of 46.21, demonstrating superior performance by surpassing leading deep research agents such as Claude Researcher, Nvidia AIQ Research Assistant, Perplexity Research, Kimi Researcher and Grok Deeper Search present on the DeepResearch Bench actively running leaderboard. This performance marginally exceeds our previous work, Static DRA, and reinforces the finding that sequential scaling consistently outperforms the parallel self consistency paradigm.

What would it mean to have a scientific understanding of AI? Models are not static objects: they are snapshots of time-evolving processes shaped by data, objectives, architectures, and optimization dynamics. Yet much of AI research treats models as fixed artifacts, analyzing behaviors after training rather than asking why they emerge. This position paper argues that a science of AI must move beyond post-hoc fixes and study the training dynamics that produce model behavior. Such a science should support progressively stronger forms of understanding: predicting outcomes from early training signals, intervening when trajectories go wrong, and ultimately designing training procedures that more reliably produce desired properties. Scaling laws have made prediction routine for loss; the challenge is extending this success to capabilities, biases, robustness, and safety-relevant behaviors. We articulate requirements for such theories grounded in the history and philosophy of science, examine progress in mechanistic interpretability, fairness, memorization, and simplicity bias, and identify concrete open problems.

Synchronization in one dimension displays generic scale invariance with universal properties previously observed in surface kinetic roughening and the wider context of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This has been established for phase oscillators and also for some limit-cycle oscillators, both in the presence of columnar (quenched) disorder and of time-dependent noise, by extensive numerical simulations, and has been analytically motivated by continuum approximations in the strong oscillator coupling limit. The robustness and the precise boundaries in parameter space for such critical behavior remain unclear, however, which may preclude further developments, including the extension of these results to higher dimensions and the experimental observation of nonequilibrium criticality in synchronizing (e.g.~electronic or chemical) oscillators. We here present complete numerical phase diagrams of one-dimensional synchronization, including saturation times and values, but, most importantly, also dynamical features giving insight into the gradual emergence of synchronous dynamics, based on systems of phase oscillators with either type of randomness. In the absence of synchronization, the dynamics evolves as expected for random deposition (for time-dependent noise) or linear growth (for columnar disorder), while a crossover from Edwards-Wilkinson to Kardar-Parisi-Zhang behavior (with the corresponding type of randomness) is observed as the randomness strength, or the nonoddity of the coupling among oscillators, is increased in the synchronous region -- their combined effect being partially captured by the so-called KPZ coupling. The distortion of scaling due to phase slips near the desynchronization boundary, a feature that is likely to play a role in experimental contexts, is also discussed.

Large language model (LLM) scaling laws are empirical formulas that estimate changes in model quality as a result of increasing parameter count and training data. However, these formulas, including the popular DeepMind Chinchilla scaling laws, neglect to include the cost of inference. We modify the Chinchilla scaling laws to calculate the optimal LLM parameter count and pre-training data size to train and deploy a model of a given quality and inference demand. We conduct our analysis both in terms of a compute budget and real-world costs and find that LLM researchers expecting reasonably large inference demand (~1B requests) should train models smaller and longer than Chinchilla-optimal.

Neural scaling laws are foundational for language model development, yet standard formulations systematically under- and overestimate loss at data-scarce and overtraining extremes. This failure originates in the underlying assumption that model size and training data impact the loss independently. To address this, we introduce the Skaling law, a generalized functional form that couples model capacity and data through a single interaction exponent. This simple extension reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 1.5-3x across both interpolation and extrapolation regimes. When paired with a sparse grid strategy restricted to low-compute regimes, the Skaling law achieves accurate full-grid extrapolation using approximately 10x less compute than uniform sweeps. By enabling reliable performance prediction from small-scale experiments, the Skaling law provides a more robust and resource-efficient framework for allocating compute budgets in next-generation model training.

State-of-the-art LLMs are powered by scaling -- scaling model size, dataset size and cluster size. It is economically infeasible to extensively tune hyperparameter for the largest runs. Instead, approximately optimal hyperparameters must be inferred or transferred from smaller experiments. Hyperparameter transfer across model sizes has been studied in Yang et al. However, hyperparameter transfer across dataset size -- or token horizon -- has not been studied yet. To remedy this we conduct a large scale empirical study on how optimal learning rate (LR) depends on token horizon in LLM training. We first demonstrate that the optimal LR changes significantly with token horizon -- longer training necessitates smaller LR. Secondly we demonstrate the the optimal LR follows a scaling law, and that the optimal LR for longer horizons can be accurately estimated from shorter horizons via such scaling laws. We also provide a rule-of-thumb for transferring LR across token horizons with zero overhead over current practices. Lastly we provide evidence that LLama-1 used too high LR, and estimate the performance hit from this. We thus argue that hyperparameter transfer across data size is an important and overlooked component of LLM training.

Larger models learn tasks smaller models do not. What drives this phenomenon? We develop a simple phenomenological argument that power-law scaling already suggests that a larger model will be able to learn a part of the data distribution that a smaller model fails to learn, even with infinite training data. To validate this claim and identify its causes, we study the effects of model scaling on a synthetic setup consisting of a mixture of tasks that show monotonic scaling curves. The results point to a data-induced competition over resources (neurons). Specifically, smaller models allocate their neurons to high frequency or low complexity tasks, and so they learn solutions that perform poorly on rare and complex tasks. Moreover, this happens even when solutions capable of expressing the desired task exist. We then assess how a larger model circumvents this data-centric bottleneck, finding that it traces to a reduced interference mechanism: larger models can allocate enough resources to common tasks that the gradient updates for those tasks become weak, which means that they do not overwrite rare-task features as they slowly accumulate. Finally, to further validate these claims, we pretrain OLMo models (4M to 4B parameters) on novel tasks of varying frequency and complexity. The results mirror those from our synthetic data experiments: only the larger OLMo models learn the infrequent and complex tasks, and these larger models embed more task features in their representations and show less gradient interference between tasks. Overall, we offer a data-centric account of why larger models learn tasks that smaller models fail to. This helps explain why larger models are better in practice, and it can inform practical questions concerning model sizing and training data mixtures.

Neural scaling laws describe how language model loss decreases with parameters and data, but treat architecture as interchangeable--a billion parameters could arise from a shallow-wide model (10 layers & 8,192 hidden dimension) or a deep-narrow one (80 layers & 2,048 hidden dimension). We propose architecture-conditioned scaling laws decomposing this dependence, finding that optimal depth scales as D* ~ C^0.12 while optimal width scales as W* ~ C^0.34, meaning width should grow 2.8x faster than depth. We discover a critical depth phenomenon: beyond D_crit ~ W^0.44 (sublinear in W), adding layers increases loss despite adding parameters--the Depth Delusion. Empirically, we validate these findings across 30 transformer architectures spanning 17M to 7B parameters, each trained on representative high-compute samples, achieving R^2 = 0.922. Our central finding: at 7B scale, a 64-layer model (6.38B params) underperforms a 32-layer model (6.86B params) by 0.12 nats, despite being significantly deeper. This demonstrates that optimal depth-width tradeoffs persist at the production scale.

Large language model pre-training has become increasingly expensive, with most practitioners relying on scaling laws to allocate compute budgets for model size and training tokens, commonly referred to as Compute-Optimal or Chinchilla Optimal. In this paper, we hypothesize a new scaling law that suggests model performance depends mostly on the amount of compute spent for transformer-based models, independent of the specific allocation to model size and dataset size. Using this unified scaling law, we predict that (a) for inference efficiency, training should prioritize smaller model sizes and larger training datasets, and (b) assuming the exhaustion of available web datasets, scaling the model size might be the only way to further improve model performance.

We present dla-ideal-solver, a high-performance framework for simulating two-dimensional Diffusion-Limited Aggregation (DLA) using Numba-accelerated Python. By leveraging just-in-time (JIT) compilation, we achieve computational throughput comparable to legacy static implementations while retaining high-level flexibility. We investigate the Laplacian growth instability across varying injection geometries and walker concentrations. Our analysis confirms the robustness of the standard fractal dimension D_f approx 1.71 for dilute regimes, consistent with the Witten-Sander universality class. However, we report a distinct crossover to Eden-like compact growth (D_f approx 1.87) in high-density environments, attributed to the saturation of the screening length. Beyond standard mass-radius scaling, we employ generalized Rényi dimensions and lacunarity metrics to quantify the monofractal character and spatial heterogeneity of the aggregates. This work establishes a reproducible, open-source testbed for exploring phase transitions in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: Investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to better performance, and even predictably so; neural scaling laws have been derived that accurately forecast the performance of a network for a desired level of compute. This leads to the notion of a "compute-optimal" model, i.e. a model that allocates a given level of compute during training optimally to maximise performance. In this work, we extend the concept of optimality by allowing for an "adaptive" model, i.e. a model that can change its shape during the course of training. By allowing the shape to adapt, we can optimally traverse between the underlying scaling laws, leading to a significant reduction in the required compute to reach a given target performance. We focus on vision tasks and the family of Vision Transformers, where the patch size as well as the width naturally serve as adaptive shape parameters. We demonstrate that, guided by scaling laws, we can design compute-optimal adaptive models that beat their "static" counterparts.

Existing scaling laws for Large Language Models (LLMs), predominantly monotonic power laws, fail to explain emerging non-monotonic phenomena such as catastrophic overtraining and quantization-induced degradation, where performance deteriorates despite increased compute. We propose the Shannon Scaling Law, a unified theoretical framework that models LLM training as information transmission over a noisy channel, grounded in the Shannon-Hartley theorem. By mapping model parameters to channel bandwidth and training tokens to signal power, our formulation explicitly captures the interaction between learning signal and intrinsic noise. This perspective reveals a fundamental Shannon capacity for LLMs: scaling model size or data without preserving a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) inevitably amplifies noise, inducing a transition from monotonic improvement to U-shaped performance degradation. We validate our theory through experiments on Pythia and OLMo2 under perturbations, including Gaussian noise, quantization and supervised fine-tuning on math, QA and code tasks. The Shannon Scaling Law consistently outperforms classical scaling laws and recent perturbation-aware laws, achieving strong R^2 scores and accurately capturing loss basins missed by prior approaches. It also extrapolates: fitted on leq6.9B Pythia models with leq180B tokens, it predicts the unseen 12B model up to 307B tokens at pooled R^2{=}0.847, while monotonic baselines collapse.

Reward Models (RMs) are critical for improving generation models via Reinforcement Learning (RL), yet the RM scaling paradigm in visual generation remains largely unexplored. It primarily due to fundamental limitations in existing approaches: CLIP-based RMs suffer from architectural and input modality constraints, while prevalent Bradley-Terry losses are fundamentally misaligned with the next-token prediction mechanism of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), hindering effective scaling. More critically, the RLHF optimization process is plagued by Reward Hacking issue, where models exploit flaws in the reward signal without improving true quality. To address these challenges, we introduce RewardDance, a scalable reward modeling framework that overcomes these barriers through a novel generative reward paradigm. By reformulating the reward score as the model's probability of predicting a "yes" token, indicating that the generated image outperforms a reference image according to specific criteria, RewardDance intrinsically aligns reward objectives with VLM architectures. This alignment unlocks scaling across two dimensions: (1) Model Scaling: Systematic scaling of RMs up to 26 billion parameters; (2) Context Scaling: Integration of task-specific instructions, reference examples, and chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RewardDance significantly surpasses state-of-the-art methods in text-to-image, text-to-video, and image-to-video generation. Crucially, we resolve the persistent challenge of "reward hacking": Our large-scale RMs exhibit and maintain high reward variance during RL fine-tuning, proving their resistance to hacking and ability to produce diverse, high-quality outputs. It greatly relieves the mode collapse problem that plagues smaller models.

As a technique to bridge logit matching and probability distribution matching, temperature scaling plays a pivotal role in knowledge distillation (KD). Conventionally, temperature scaling is applied to both teacher's logits and student's logits in KD. Motivated by some recent works, in this paper, we drop instead temperature scaling on the student side, and systematically study the resulting variant of KD, dubbed transformed teacher matching (TTM). By reinterpreting temperature scaling as a power transform of probability distribution, we show that in comparison with the original KD, TTM has an inherent R\'enyi entropy term in its objective function, which serves as an extra regularization term. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that thanks to this inherent regularization, TTM leads to trained students with better generalization than the original KD. To further enhance student's capability to match teacher's power transformed probability distribution, we introduce a sample-adaptive weighting coefficient into TTM, yielding a novel distillation approach dubbed weighted TTM (WTTM). It is shown, by comprehensive experiments, that although WTTM is simple, it is effective, improves upon TTM, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zkxufo/TTM.

Scaling limits, such as infinite-width limits, serve as promising theoretical tools to study large-scale models. However, it is widely believed that existing infinite-width theory does not faithfully explain the behavior of practical networks, especially those trained in standard parameterization (SP) meaning He initialization with a global learning rate. For instance, existing theory for SP predicts instability at large learning rates and vanishing feature learning at stable ones. In practice, however, optimal learning rates decay slower than theoretically predicted and networks exhibit both stable training and non-trivial feature learning, even at very large widths. Here, we show that this discrepancy is not fully explained by finite-width phenomena. Instead, we find a resolution through a finer-grained analysis of the regime previously considered unstable and therefore uninteresting. In particular, we show that, under cross-entropy (CE) loss, the unstable regime comprises two distinct sub-regimes: a catastrophically unstable regime and a more benign controlled divergence regime, where logits diverge but gradients and activations remain stable. Moreover, under large learning rates at the edge of the controlled divergence regime, there exists a well-defined infinite width limit where features continue to evolve in all the hidden layers. In experiments across optimizers, architectures, and data modalities, we validate that neural networks operate in this controlled divergence regime under CE loss but not under MSE loss. Our empirical evidence suggests that width-scaling considerations are surprisingly useful for predicting empirically maximal stable learning rate exponents which provide useful guidance on optimal learning rate exponents. Finally, our analysis clarifies the effectiveness and limitations of recently proposed layerwise learning rate scaling for standard initialization.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

Efficient sampling of the Boltzmann distribution in frustrated spin glasses is central to statistical mechanics and combinatorial optimization. Despite advances in machine-learning-based approaches, two issues persist: limited understanding of why variational models fail to benefit from increased scale, unlike the monotonic scaling law of large language models; and high computational cost on large systems that negates advantages over classical sampling methods. Here, we develop a physics-inspired transformer with interpretable sparse attention and spin-tailored positional embeddings to address these challenges. By further leveraging FlashAttention for parallel ancestral sampling, it achieves up to two orders of magnitude speedup over vanilla variational autoregressive networks, enabling neural-network simulations of spin-glass systems to unprecedented sizes on a single GPU. It can resolve full probability distributions, free energies, and overlap statistics across temperatures, for Sherrington-Kirkpatrick and 2D or 3D Edwards-Anderson models, where existing machine-learning methods encounter limitations at certain temperatures. This framework thus establishes a scalable paradigm for frustrated spin-glass systems.

Over the past few years, the size of language models has grown exponentially, as has the computational cost to train these large models. This rapid growth has motivated researchers to develop new techniques aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the training process. Despite these advancements, optimally predicting the model size or allocating optimal resources remains a challenge. Several efforts have addressed the challenge by proposing different scaling laws, but almost all of them are architecture-specific (dense or sparse). In this work we revisit existing scaling laws and propose a generalized scaling law to provide a unified framework that is applicable to both dense and sparse large language models. We evaluate and compare our proposed scaling law with existing scaling laws to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Natural selection for terrestrial locomotion has yielded unifying patterns in the body shape of legged animals, often manifesting as scaling laws. One such pattern appears in the frontal aspect ratio. Smaller animals like insects typically adopt a landscape frontal aspect ratio, with a wider side-to-side base of support than center of mass height. Larger animals like elephants, however, are taller than wide with a portrait aspect ratio. Known explanations for postural scaling are restricted to animal groups with similar anatomical and behavioural motifs, but the trend in frontal aspect ratio transcends such commonalities. Here we show that vertebrates and invertebrates with diverse body plans, ranging in mass from 28 mg to 22000 kg, exhibit size-dependent scaling of the frontal aspect ratio driven by the need for lateral stability on uneven natural terrain. Because natural terrain exhibit scale-dependent unevenness, and the frontal aspect ratio is important for lateral stability during locomotion, smaller animals need a wider aspect ratio for stability. This prediction is based on the fractal property of natural terrain unevenness, requires no anatomical or behavioural parameters, and agrees with the measured scaling despite vast anatomical and behavioural differences. Furthermore, a statistical phylogenetic comparative analysis found that shared ancestry and random trait evolution cannot explain the measured scaling. Thus, our findings reveal that terrain roughness, acting through natural selection for stability, likely drove the macroevolution of frontal shape in terrestrial animals.

The development of 0.1^{circ} global weather forecasting models based on machine learning (ML) is constrained by the limited availability of high-resolution data, as decades of reanalysis are only available at 0.25^{circ} resolution. While existing approaches fine-tune 0.25^{circ} forecast models on limited 0.1^{circ} samples, we show that this transfer is hindered by the irreversible information loss inherent in coarse-resolution forecasting. Therefore, we propose BaguanHR, a framework that shifts the focus from transferring models to transferring data. We first show that super-resolution (SR) has lower conditional entropy and input amplification than forecasting, making it a more robust vehicle for resolution transfer. By leveraging this advantage through variable-wise SR, we synthesize extensive 0.1^{circ} data from ERA5. BaguanHR's performance on the synthetic-plus-real dataset exceeds both ML-based methods and IFS-HRES, achieving superior performance across over 85% of the lead times within 72 hours. Furthermore, our findings highlight a power-law scaling effect, as a twofold increase in data reduces RMSE by 4.6% for 72-hour forecasting and 4.9% for 120-hour forecasting. Our results demonstrate that scaling high resolution ML-based forecasting is primarily a data bottleneck, and that variable-wise super-resolution provides a simple yet general solution to unlock long coarse-resolution reanalyses for high-resolution training.

The Languini Kitchen serves as both a research collective and codebase designed to empower researchers with limited computational resources to contribute meaningfully to the field of language modelling. We introduce an experimental protocol that enables model comparisons based on equivalent compute, measured in accelerator hours. The number of tokens on which a model is trained is defined by the model's throughput and the chosen compute class. Notably, this approach avoids constraints on critical hyperparameters which affect total parameters or floating-point operations. For evaluation, we pre-process an existing large, diverse, and high-quality dataset of books that surpasses existing academic benchmarks in quality, diversity, and document length. On it, we compare methods based on their empirical scaling trends which are estimated through experiments at various levels of compute. This work also provides two baseline models: a feed-forward model derived from the GPT-2 architecture and a recurrent model in the form of a novel LSTM with ten-fold throughput. While the GPT baseline achieves better perplexity throughout all our levels of compute, our LSTM baseline exhibits a predictable and more favourable scaling law. This is due to the improved throughput and the need for fewer training tokens to achieve the same decrease in test perplexity. Extrapolating the scaling laws leads of both models results in an intersection at roughly 50,000 accelerator hours. We hope this work can serve as the foundation for meaningful and reproducible language modelling research.

Scaling laws have transformed our understanding of large language models by linking upstream metrics like cross-entropy loss to design factors such as model size, training data, and compute. However, these conventional laws fail to capture downstream task performance, where context plays a critical role. In this work, we propose a straightforward, interpretable framework that jointly models downstream performance as a function of the training compute and the provided context. We empirically validate our framework by fitting it on the observed downstream performance of extended-context variants of Llama-2-7B and Llama-2-13B across 65,500 unique instances spanning three tasks: arithmetic reasoning, common sense reasoning, and machine translation. Our results demonstrate that our framework accurately models in-distribution downstream performance, generalizes across three orders of magnitude in training compute, and reliably extrapolates performance as the amount of context increases. These findings offer valuable insights into the interplay between training compute and context utilization, providing guidance for designing more efficient long-context LLMs for diverse downstream tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wang-research-lab/context-scaling.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

We show that Hertzian particle contacts are the underlying cause of the as-yet-unexplained noninteger power laws in weakly nonlinear rheology. In the medium amplitude oscillatory shear (MAOS) region, the cubic scaling of the leading order nonlinear shear stress (σ_3 sim γ_0^{m_3}, m_3=3) is the standard expectation. Expanding on the work by Natalia et al. [J. Rheol. 64 625-635 (2020)], we report an extensive data set of noncubical, noninteger power law scalings m_3 for particle suspensions in two immiscible fluids with a capillary attractive interaction, known as capillary suspensions. Here, we show that distinct power law exponents are found for the storage and loss moduli and these noninteger scalings occur at every secondary fluid concentration for two different contact angles. These compelling results indicate that the noninteger scalings are related to the underlying microstructure of capillary suspensions. We show that the magnitude of the third harmonic elastic stress scaling m_3,elastic originates from Hertzian-like contacts in combination with the attractive capillary force. The related third harmonic viscous stress scaling m_3,viscous is, found to be associated with adhesive-controlled friction. These observations, conducted for a wide range of compositions, can help explain previous reports of noninteger scaling for materials involving particle contacts and offers a new opportunity using the variable power law exponent of MAOS rheology to reveal the physics of particle bonds and friction in the rheological response under low deformation instead of at very high shear rates.

The current paradigm of test-time scaling relies on generating long reasoning traces ("thinking" more) before producing a response. In agent problems that require interaction, this can be done by generating thinking traces before acting in the world. However, this process does not allow agents to acquire new information from the environment or adapt their behavior over time. In this work, we propose to scale test-time interaction, an untapped dimension of test-time scaling that increases the agent's interaction horizon to enable running rich behaviors such as exploration, backtracking, and dynamic re-planning within a single rollout. To demonstrate the promise of this scaling dimension, we study the domain of web agents. We first show that even prompting-based interaction scaling without any training can improve task success on web benchmarks non-trivially. Building on this, we introduce TTI (Test-Time Interaction), a curriculum-based online reinforcement learning (RL) approach that trains agents by adaptively adjusting their rollout lengths. Using a Gemma 3 12B model, TTI produces state-of-the-art open-source, open-data web agents on WebVoyager and WebArena benchmarks. We further show that TTI enables agents to balance exploration and exploitation adaptively. Our results establish interaction scaling as a powerful, complementary axis to scaling per-step compute, offering new avenues for training adaptive agents.

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a promising approach to tackle complex tasks that are difficult for individual LLMs. A natural strategy is to scale performance by increasing the number of agents; however, we find that such scaling exhibits strong diminishing returns in homogeneous settings, while introducing heterogeneity (e.g., different models, prompts, or tools) continues to yield substantial gains. This raises a fundamental question: what limits scaling, and why does diversity help? We present an information-theoretic framework showing that MAS performance is bounded by the intrinsic task uncertainty, not by agent count. We derive architecture-agnostic bounds demonstrating that improvements depend on how many effective channels the system accesses. Homogeneous agents saturate early because their outputs are strongly correlated, whereas heterogeneous agents contribute complementary evidence. We further introduce K^*, an effective channel count that quantifies the number of effective channels without ground-truth labels. Empirically, we show that heterogeneous configurations consistently outperform homogeneous scaling: 2 diverse agents can match or exceed the performance of 16 homogeneous agents. Our results provide principled guidelines for building efficient and robust MAS through diversity-aware design. Code and Dataset are available at the link: https://github.com/SafeRL-Lab/Agent-Scaling.

We provide a distillation scaling law that estimates distilled model performance based on a compute budget and its allocation between the student and teacher. Our findings reduce the risks associated with using distillation at scale; compute allocation for both the teacher and student models can now be done to maximize student performance. We provide compute optimal distillation recipes for when 1) a teacher exists, or 2) a teacher needs training. If many students are to be distilled, or a teacher already exists, distillation outperforms supervised pretraining until a compute level which grows predictably with student size. If one student is to be distilled and a teacher also needs training, supervised learning should be done instead. Additionally, we provide insights across our large scale study of distillation, which increase our understanding of distillation and inform experimental design.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.