Daily Papers

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for general-purpose robotic control, with test-time scaling (TTS) gaining attention to enhance robustness beyond training. However, existing TTS methods for VLAs require additional training, verifiers, and multiple forward passes, making them impractical for deployment. Moreover, they intervene only at action decoding while keeping visual representations fixed-insufficient under perceptual ambiguity, where reconsidering how to perceive is as important as deciding what to do. To address these limitations, we propose SCALE, a simple inference strategy that jointly modulates visual perception and action based on 'self-uncertainty', inspired by uncertainty-driven exploration in Active Inference theory-requiring no additional training, no verifier, and only a single forward pass. SCALE broadens exploration in both perception and action under high uncertainty, while focusing on exploitation when confident-enabling adaptive execution across varying conditions. Experiments on simulated and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that SCALE improves state-of-the-art VLAs and outperforms existing TTS methods while maintaining single-pass efficiency.

Long video understanding remains challenging for Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) due to high memory costs and context-length limits. Prior approaches mitigate this by scoring and selecting frames/tokens within short clips, but they lack a principled mechanism to (i) compare relevance across distant video clips and (ii) stop processing once sufficient evidence has been gathered. We propose AdaptToken, a training-free framework that turns an MLLM's self-uncertainty into a global control signal for long-video token selection. AdaptToken splits a video into groups, extracts cross-modal attention to rank tokens within each group, and uses the model's response entropy to estimate each group's prompt relevance. This entropy signal enables a global token budget allocation across groups and further supports early stopping (AdaptToken-Lite), skipping the remaining groups when the model becomes sufficiently certain. Across four long-video benchmarks (VideoMME, LongVideoBench, LVBench, and MLVU) and multiple base MLLMs (7B-72B), AdaptToken consistently improves accuracy (e.g., +6.7 on average over Qwen2.5-VL 7B) and continues to benefit from extremely long inputs (up to 10K frames), while AdaptToken-Lite reduces inference time by about half with comparable performance. Project page: https://haozheqi.github.io/adapt-token

This paper introduces Self-aware Knowledge Retrieval (SeaKR), a novel adaptive RAG model that extracts self-aware uncertainty of LLMs from their internal states. SeaKR activates retrieval when the LLMs present high self-aware uncertainty for generation. To effectively integrate retrieved knowledge snippets, SeaKR re-ranks them based on LLM's self-aware uncertainty to preserve the snippet that reduces their uncertainty to the utmost. To facilitate solving complex tasks that require multiple retrievals, SeaKR utilizes their self-aware uncertainty to choose among different reasoning strategies. Our experiments on both complex and simple Question Answering datasets show that SeaKR outperforms existing adaptive RAG methods. We release our code at https://github.com/THU-KEG/SeaKR.

Neural NLP models are often miscalibrated, assigning high confidence to incorrect predictions, which undermines selective prediction and high-stakes deployment. Post-hoc calibration methods adjust output probabilities but leave internal computation unchanged, while ensemble and Bayesian approaches improve uncertainty at substantial training or storage cost. We propose UAT-LITE, an inference-time framework that makes self-attention uncertainty-aware using approximate Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo dropout in pretrained transformer classifiers. Token-level epistemic uncertainty is estimated from stochastic forward passes and used to modulate self-attention during contextualization, without modifying pretrained weights or training objectives. We additionally introduce a layerwise variance decomposition to diagnose how predictive uncertainty accumulates across transformer depth. Across the SQuAD 2.0 answerability, MNLI, and SST-2, UAT-LITE reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 20% on average relative to a fine-tuned BERT-base baseline while preserving task accuracy, and improves selective prediction and robustness under distribution shift.

Recent contributions have demonstrated that it is possible to recognize the pose of humans densely and accurately given a large dataset of poses annotated in detail. In principle, the same approach could be extended to any animal class, but the effort required for collecting new annotations for each case makes this strategy impractical, despite important applications in natural conservation, science and business. We show that, at least for proximal animal classes such as chimpanzees, it is possible to transfer the knowledge existing in dense pose recognition for humans, as well as in more general object detectors and segmenters, to the problem of dense pose recognition in other classes. We do this by (1) establishing a DensePose model for the new animal which is also geometrically aligned to humans (2) introducing a multi-head R-CNN architecture that facilitates transfer of multiple recognition tasks between classes, (3) finding which combination of known classes can be transferred most effectively to the new animal and (4) using self-calibrated uncertainty heads to generate pseudo-labels graded by quality for training a model for this class. We also introduce two benchmark datasets labelled in the manner of DensePose for the class chimpanzee and use them to evaluate our approach, showing excellent transfer learning performance.

In this paper, a novel self-supervised learning (SSL) method is proposed, which learns not only representations but also representations uncertainties by considering SSL in terms of variational inference. SSL is a method of learning representation without labels by maximizing the similarity between image representations of different augmented views of the same image. Variational autoencoder (VAE) is an unsupervised representation learning method that trains a probabilistic generative model with variational inference. VAE and SSL can learn representations without labels, but the relationship between VAE and SSL has not been revealed. In this paper, the theoretical relationship between SSL and variational inference is clarified. In addition, variational inference SimSiam (VI-SimSiam) is proposed, which can predict the representation uncertainty by interpreting SimSiam with variational inference and defining the latent space distribution. The experiment qualitatively showed that VISimSiam could learn uncertainty by comparing input images and predicted uncertainties. We also revealed a relationship between estimated uncertainty and classification accuracy.

Iterative preference optimization has recently become one of the de-facto training paradigms for large language models (LLMs), but the performance is still underwhelming due to too much noisy preference data yielded in the loop. To combat this issue, we present an Uncertainty-enhanced Preference Optimization (UPO) framework to make the LLM self-evolve with reliable feedback. The key idea is mitigating the noisy preference data derived from the current policy and reward models by performing pair-wise uncertainty estimation and judiciously reliable feedback sampling. To reach this goal, we thus introduce an estimator model, which incorporates Monte Carlo (MC) dropout in Bayesian neural network (BNN) to perform uncertainty estimation for the preference data derived from the LLM policy. Compared to the existing methods that directly filter generated responses based on the reward score, the estimator focuses on the model uncertainty in a pair-wise manner and effectively bypasses the confirmation bias problem of the reward model. Additionally, we also propose an uncertainty-enhanced self-evolution algorithm to improve the robustness of preference optimization and encourage the LLM to generate responses with both high reward and certainty. Extensive experiments over multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our framework substantially alleviates the noisy problem and improves the performance of iterative preference optimization.

Long-context handling remains a core challenge for language models: even with extended context windows, models often fail to reliably extract, reason over, and use the information across long contexts. Recent works like Recursive Language Models (RLM) have approached this challenge by agentic way of decomposing long contexts into recursive sub-calls through programmatic interaction at inference. While promising, the success of RLM critically depends on how these context-interaction programs are selected, which has remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we study this problem and introduce SRLM, a framework that augments programmatic context interaction with uncertainty-aware Self-Reflection. SRLM leverages three intrinsic signals: self consistency, reasoning length, and verbalized confidence. These serve as complementary indicators of a model's internal uncertainty, and the model uses them to evaluate and compare candidate context-interaction programs. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmark datasets, context lengths, and backbone models, show that SRLM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding up to 22% improvement over RLM under the same time budget. Our findings show that recursion itself is not the primary driver of performance in RLM, and a simple self-reflective program search can match or surpass RLM without requiring self-query or explicit recursion mechanisms. We find that for context lengths within the model's window, RLMs with recursion often degrade performance relative to the base model, whereas SRLM yields consistent gains across both short and long contexts. We also find that RLM is less effective in tasks with semantically intensive nature, where heuristic program search is insufficient and broader contextual understanding is required, while self-reflection in SRLM provides a semantic signal that better steers reasoning in these scenarios.

Instruction tuning (IT) is crucial to tailoring large language models (LLMs) towards human-centric interactions. Recent advancements have shown that the careful selection of a small, high-quality subset of IT data can significantly enhance the performance of LLMs. Despite this, common approaches often rely on additional models or data sets, which increases costs and limits widespread adoption. In this work, we propose a novel approach, termed SelectIT, that capitalizes on the foundational capabilities of the LLM itself. Specifically, we exploit the intrinsic uncertainty present in LLMs to more effectively select high-quality IT data, without the need for extra resources. Furthermore, we introduce a novel IT dataset, the Selective Alpaca, created by applying SelectIT to the Alpaca-GPT4 dataset. Empirical results demonstrate that IT using Selective Alpaca leads to substantial model ability enhancement. The robustness of SelectIT has also been corroborated in various foundation models and domain-specific tasks. Our findings suggest that longer and more computationally intensive IT data may serve as superior sources of IT, offering valuable insights for future research in this area. Data, code, and scripts are freely available at https://github.com/Blue-Raincoat/SelectIT.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibiting test-time scaling behavior, such as extended reasoning traces and self-verification, have demonstrated remarkable performance on complex, long-term reasoning tasks. However, the robustness of these reasoning behaviors remains underexplored. To investigate this, we conduct a systematic evaluation of multiple reasoning models across three scenarios: (1) problems augmented with lengthy, irrelevant context; (2) multi-turn conversational settings with independent tasks; and (3) problems presented as a subtask within a complex task. We observe an interesting phenomenon: reasoning models tend to produce much shorter reasoning traces (up to 50%) for the same problem under different context conditions compared to the traces produced when the problem is presented in isolation. A finer-grained analysis reveals that this compression is associated with a decrease in self-verification and uncertainty management behaviors, such as double-checking. While this behavioral shift does not compromise performance on straightforward problems, it might affect performance on more challenging tasks. We hope our findings draw additional attention to both the robustness of reasoning models and the problem of context management for LLMs and LLM-based agents.

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) often struggle to adapt to new dynamic behaviors caused by parameter changes in the underlying physical system, even when these dynamics are similar to previously observed behaviors. This problem becomes more challenging when the changing parameters are unobserved, meaning their value or influence cannot be directly measured when collecting data. To address this issue, we introduce Neural Context Flow (NCF), a robust and interpretable Meta-Learning framework that includes uncertainty estimation. NCF uses Taylor expansion to enable contextual self-modulation, allowing context vectors to influence dynamics from other domains while also modulating themselves. After establishing theoretical guarantees, we empirically test NCF and compare it to related adaptation methods. Our results show that NCF achieves state-of-the-art Out-of-Distribution performance on 5 out of 6 linear and non-linear benchmark problems. Through extensive experiments, we explore the flexible model architecture of NCF and the encoded representations within the learned context vectors. Our findings highlight the potential implications of NCF for foundational models in the physical sciences, offering a promising approach to improving the adaptability and generalization of NODEs in various scientific applications. Our code is openly available at https://github.com/ddrous/ncflow.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step decision-making agents, where effective reward design is essential for guiding learning. Although recent work explores various forms of reward shaping and step-level credit assignment, a key signal remains largely overlooked: the intrinsic uncertainty of LLMs. Uncertainty reflects model confidence, reveals where exploration is needed, and offers valuable learning cues even in failed trajectories. We introduce SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards, a reinforcement learning framework that incorporates uncertainty directly into the reward design. SELAUR integrates entropy-, least-confidence-, and margin-based metrics into a combined token-level uncertainty estimate, providing dense confidence-aligned supervision, and employs a failure-aware reward reshaping mechanism that injects these uncertainty signals into step- and trajectory-level rewards to improve exploration efficiency and learning stability. Experiments on two benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, show that our method consistently improves success rates over strong baselines. Ablation studies further demonstrate how uncertainty signals enhance exploration and robustness.

Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used in always-on safety-critical applications deployed on hardware accelerators (NN-HAs) employing various memory technologies. Reliable continuous operation of NN is essential for safety-critical applications. During online operation, NNs are susceptible to single and multiple permanent and soft errors due to factors such as radiation, aging, and thermal effects. Explicit NN-HA testing methods cannot detect transient faults during inference, are unsuitable for always-on applications, and require extensive test vector generation and storage. Therefore, in this paper, we propose the uncertainty fingerprint approach representing the online fault status of NN. Furthermore, we propose a dual head NN topology specifically designed to produce uncertainty fingerprints and the primary prediction of the NN in a single shot. During the online operation, by matching the uncertainty fingerprint, we can concurrently self-test NNs with up to 100% coverage with a low false positive rate while maintaining a similar performance of the primary task. Compared to existing works, memory overhead is reduced by up to 243.7 MB, multiply and accumulate (MAC) operation is reduced by up to 10000times, and false-positive rates are reduced by up to 89%.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Predicting attention regions of interest is an important yet challenging task for self-driving systems. Existing methodologies rely on large-scale labeled traffic datasets that are labor-intensive to obtain. Besides, the huge domain gap between natural scenes and traffic scenes in current datasets also limits the potential for model training. To address these challenges, we are the first to introduce an unsupervised way to predict self-driving attention by uncertainty modeling and driving knowledge integration. Our approach's Uncertainty Mining Branch (UMB) discovers commonalities and differences from multiple generated pseudo-labels achieved from models pre-trained on natural scenes by actively measuring the uncertainty. Meanwhile, our Knowledge Embedding Block (KEB) bridges the domain gap by incorporating driving knowledge to adaptively refine the generated pseudo-labels. Quantitative and qualitative results with equivalent or even more impressive performance compared to fully-supervised state-of-the-art approaches across all three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and the potential of this direction. The code will be made publicly available.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce irrelevant information. Recent adaptive retrieval methods integrate LLMs' intrinsic knowledge with external information appealing to LLM self-knowledge, but they often neglect efficiency evaluations and comparisons with uncertainty estimation techniques. We bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of 35 adaptive retrieval methods, including 8 recent approaches and 27 uncertainty estimation techniques, across 6 datasets using 10 metrics for QA performance, self-knowledge, and efficiency. Our findings show that uncertainty estimation techniques often outperform complex pipelines in terms of efficiency and self-knowledge, while maintaining comparable QA performance.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach addresses the computational challenges inherent in traditional optimization-based algorithms by harnessing deep learning models to predict optimal interference management solutions. A significant breakthrough of our framework is its acknowledgment of the limitations inherent in data-driven models, particularly in scenarios not adequately represented by the training dataset. To overcome these challenges, we propose a method for uncertainty quantification, accompanied by a qualifying criterion, to assess the trustworthiness of model predictions. This framework strategically alternates between model-generated solutions and traditional algorithms, guided by a criterion that assesses the prediction credibility based on quantified uncertainties. Experimental results validate the framework's efficacy, demonstrating its superiority over traditional deep learning models, notably in scenarios underrepresented in the training dataset. This work marks a pioneering endeavor in harnessing self-improving deep learning for interference management, through the lens of uncertainty quantification.

Self-supervision provides effective representations for downstream tasks without requiring labels. However, existing approaches lag behind fully supervised training and are often not thought beneficial beyond obviating or reducing the need for annotations. We find that self-supervision can benefit robustness in a variety of ways, including robustness to adversarial examples, label corruption, and common input corruptions. Additionally, self-supervision greatly benefits out-of-distribution detection on difficult, near-distribution outliers, so much so that it exceeds the performance of fully supervised methods. These results demonstrate the promise of self-supervision for improving robustness and uncertainty estimation and establish these tasks as new axes of evaluation for future self-supervised learning research.

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

Reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) should abstain when confidence is insufficient. However, prior studies often treat refusal as a generic "I don't know'', failing to distinguish input-level ambiguity (data uncertainty) from capability limitations (model uncertainty). This lack of distinction limits downstream action decisions like requesting clarification or invoking external tools. In this work, we introduce UA-Bench, a benchmark of over 3,500 questions drawn from six datasets spanning knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive tasks, designed to evaluate explicit uncertainty attribution. An evaluation of 18 frontier LLMs shows that even state-of-the-art models struggle to reliably discriminate between data uncertainty and model uncertainty, and that high answer accuracy does not necessarily imply strong uncertainty attribution ability. To narrow this gap, we propose a lightweight data synthesis and reinforcement learning strategy. Experiments on both Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507 and Qwen3-8B in thinking mode show that the proposed method improves uncertainty attribution while preserving answer accuracy. Our code and data are publicly available now.

Modern video generators still struggle with complex physical dynamics, often falling short of physical realism. Existing approaches address this using external verifiers or additional training on augmented data, which is computationally expensive and still limited in capturing fine-grained motion. In this work, we present self-refining video sampling, a simple method that uses a pre-trained video generator trained on large-scale datasets as its own self-refiner. By interpreting the generator as a denoising autoencoder, we enable iterative inner-loop refinement at inference time without any external verifier or additional training. We further introduce an uncertainty-aware refinement strategy that selectively refines regions based on self-consistency, which prevents artifacts caused by over-refinement. Experiments on state-of-the-art video generators demonstrate significant improvements in motion coherence and physics alignment, achieving over 70\% human preference compared to the default sampler and guidance-based sampler.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in novel view synthesis (NVS). However, 3DGS tends to overfit when trained with sparse views, limiting its generalization to novel viewpoints. In this paper, we address this overfitting issue by introducing Self-Ensembling Gaussian Splatting (SE-GS). We achieve self-ensembling by incorporating an uncertainty-aware perturbation strategy during training. A Delta-model and a Sigma-model are jointly trained on the available images. The Delta-model is dynamically perturbed based on rendering uncertainty across training steps, generating diverse perturbed models with negligible computational overhead. Discrepancies between the Sigma-model and these perturbed models are minimized throughout training, forming a robust ensemble of 3DGS models. This ensemble, represented by the Sigma-model, is then used to generate novel-view images during inference. Experimental results on the LLFF, Mip-NeRF360, DTU, and MVImgNet datasets demonstrate that our approach enhances NVS quality under few-shot training conditions, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at: https://sailor-z.github.io/projects/SEGS.html.

Building extraction from remote sensing images is a challenging task due to the complex structure variations of the buildings. Existing methods employ convolutional or self-attention blocks to capture the multi-scale features in the segmentation models, while the inherent gap of the feature pyramids and insufficient global-local feature integration leads to inaccurate, ambiguous extraction results. To address this issue, in this paper, we present an Uncertainty-Aggregated Global-Local Fusion Network (UAGLNet), which is capable to exploit high-quality global-local visual semantics under the guidance of uncertainty modeling. Specifically, we propose a novel cooperative encoder, which adopts hybrid CNN and transformer layers at different stages to capture the local and global visual semantics, respectively. An intermediate cooperative interaction block (CIB) is designed to narrow the gap between the local and global features when the network becomes deeper. Afterwards, we propose a Global-Local Fusion (GLF) module to complementarily fuse the global and local representations. Moreover, to mitigate the segmentation ambiguity in uncertain regions, we propose an Uncertainty-Aggregated Decoder (UAD) to explicitly estimate the pixel-wise uncertainty to enhance the segmentation accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance to other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/Dstate/UAGLNet

Large language model (LLM) agents often struggle in environments where rules and required domain knowledge frequently change, such as regulatory compliance and user risk screening. Current approaches, like offline fine-tuning and standard prompting, are insufficient because they cannot effectively adapt to new knowledge during actual operation. To address this limitation, we propose the Adaptive Reflective Interactive Agent (ARIA), an LLM agent framework designed specifically to continuously learn updated domain knowledge at test time. ARIA assesses its own uncertainty through structured self-dialogue, proactively identifying knowledge gaps and requesting targeted explanations or corrections from human experts. It then systematically updates an internal, timestamped knowledge repository with provided human guidance, detecting and resolving conflicting or outdated knowledge through comparisons and clarification queries. We evaluate ARIA on the realistic customer due diligence name screening task on TikTok Pay, alongside publicly available dynamic knowledge tasks. Results demonstrate significant improvements in adaptability and accuracy compared to baselines using standard offline fine-tuning and existing self-improving agents. ARIA is deployed within TikTok Pay serving over 150 million monthly active users, confirming its practicality and effectiveness for operational use in rapidly evolving environments.

Accurate confidence calibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for safe use in high-stakes domains, where clear verbalized confidence enhances user trust. Traditional methods that mimic reference confidence expressions often fail to capture the reasoning needed for accurate confidence assessment. We propose natural language critiques as a solution, ideally suited for confidence calibration, as precise gold confidence labels are hard to obtain and often require multiple generations. This paper studies how natural language critiques can enhance verbalized confidence, addressing: (1) What to critique: uncertainty (question-focused) or confidence (answer-specific)? Analysis shows confidence suits multiple-choice tasks, while uncertainty excels in open-ended scenarios. (2) How to critique: self-critique or critique calibration training? We propose Self-Critique, enabling LLMs to critique and optimize their confidence beyond mere accuracy, and CritiCal, a novel Critique Calibration training method that leverages natural language critiques to improve confidence calibration, moving beyond direct numerical optimization. Experiments show that CritiCal significantly outperforms Self-Critique and other competitive baselines, even surpassing its teacher model, GPT-4o, in complex reasoning tasks. CritiCal also shows robust generalization in out-of-distribution settings, advancing LLM's reliability.

Self-consistency improves large language models by sampling multiple reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer, but majority voting often fails to recover correct answers that are already present among the samples. We address this limitation with Ranking-Improved Self-Consistency (RISC), which reformulates answer selection in self-consistency as a ranking problem. Instead of relying on a single uncertainty or confidence signal, RISC uses a lightweight LambdaRank model to score candidate answers with five carefully designed features that capture answer frequency, semantic centrality, and reasoning-trace consistency. We evaluate RISC on three datasets under a range of test-time budgets. Across datasets, RISC consistently achieves a better accuracy-efficiency trade-off than standard self-consistency and strong baselines, with particularly large gains on question answering benchmarks. Further analysis shows that the proposed features are individually useful and, more importantly, complementary, highlighting the value of learning to combine multiple informative signals for test-time answer selection.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is uncertain, can it be trained to signal so within its own response? A central design question is where in the response this signal should be exposed -- during reasoning, while the answer is still being formed, or at the end, once the answer has been produced. We study both. For end-of-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to verbalize a confidence score for its response, with the aim of high confidence on correct answers and low confidence on incorrect ones. For during-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to emit the marker <uncertain> whenever its current reasoning state appears unreliable. Across factual reasoning tasks, both forms sharply reduce overconfident errors while improving answer quality, and both can be used as triggers for retrieval augmented generation (RAG) to improve the final response. We further analyze their internal mechanisms: end-of-reasoning verbalized confidence sharpens a confidence-related structure already present in the pretrained model, whereas during-reasoning <uncertain> emission teaches the model to mark high-risk reasoning steps, with parameter changes concentrated in the model's late layers.

Supervised learning for empathy regression is challenged by noisy self-reported empathy scores. While many algorithms have been proposed for learning with noisy labels in textual classification problems, the regression counterpart is relatively under-explored. We propose UPLME, an uncertainty-aware probabilistic language modelling framework to capture label noise in the regression setting of empathy detection. UPLME includes a probabilistic language model that predicts both empathy score and heteroscedastic uncertainty and is trained using Bayesian concepts with variational model ensembling. We further introduce two novel loss components: one penalises degenerate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and another enforces the similarity between the input pairs on which we predict empathy. UPLME provides state-of-the-art performance (Pearson Correlation Coefficient: 0.558rightarrow0.580 and 0.629rightarrow0.634) in terms of the performance reported in the literature in two public benchmarks, having label noise. Through synthetic label noise injection, we show that UPLME is effective in separating noisy and clean samples based on the predicted uncertainty. UPLME further outperform (Calibration error: 0.571rightarrow0.376) a recent variational model ensembling-based UQ method designed for regression problems.

This paper presents the Entropy-Driven Unified Process Reward Model (EDU-PRM), a novel framework that approximates state-of-the-art performance in process supervision while drastically reducing training costs. EDU-PRM introduces an entropy-guided dynamic step partitioning mechanism, using logit distribution entropy to pinpoint high-uncertainty regions during token generation dynamically. This self-assessment capability enables precise step-level feedback without manual fine-grained annotation, addressing a critical challenge in process supervision. Experiments on the Qwen2.5-72B model with only 7,500 EDU-PRM-generated training queries demonstrate accuracy closely approximating the full Qwen2.5-72B-PRM (71.1% vs. 71.6%), achieving a 98% reduction in query cost compared to prior methods. This work establishes EDU-PRM as an efficient approach for scalable process reward model training.

While passive surfaces offer numerous benefits for interaction in mixed reality, reliably detecting touch input solely from head-mounted cameras has been a long-standing challenge. Camera specifics, hand self-occlusion, and rapid movements of both head and fingers introduce considerable uncertainty about the exact location of touch events. Existing methods have thus not been capable of achieving the performance needed for robust interaction. In this paper, we present a real-time pipeline that detects touch input from all ten fingers on any physical surface, purely based on egocentric hand tracking. Our method TouchInsight comprises a neural network to predict the moment of a touch event, the finger making contact, and the touch location. TouchInsight represents locations through a bivariate Gaussian distribution to account for uncertainties due to sensing inaccuracies, which we resolve through contextual priors to accurately infer intended user input. We first evaluated our method offline and found that it locates input events with a mean error of 6.3 mm, and accurately detects touch events (F1=0.99) and identifies the finger used (F1=0.96). In an online evaluation, we then demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for a core application of dexterous touch input: two-handed text entry. In our study, participants typed 37.0 words per minute with an uncorrected error rate of 2.9% on average.

Self-supervised multi-frame monocular depth estimation relies on the geometric consistency between successive frames under the assumption of a static scene. However, the presence of moving objects in dynamic scenes introduces inevitable inconsistencies, causing misaligned multi-frame feature matching and misleading self-supervision during training. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called ProDepth, which effectively addresses the mismatch problem caused by dynamic objects using a probabilistic approach. We initially deduce the uncertainty associated with static scene assumption by adopting an auxiliary decoder. This decoder analyzes inconsistencies embedded in the cost volume, inferring the probability of areas being dynamic. We then directly rectify the erroneous cost volume for dynamic areas through a Probabilistic Cost Volume Modulation (PCVM) module. Specifically, we derive probability distributions of depth candidates from both single-frame and multi-frame cues, modulating the cost volume by adaptively fusing those distributions based on the inferred uncertainty. Additionally, we present a self-supervision loss reweighting strategy that not only masks out incorrect supervision with high uncertainty but also mitigates the risks in remaining possible dynamic areas in accordance with the probability. Our proposed method excels over state-of-the-art approaches in all metrics on both Cityscapes and KITTI datasets, and demonstrates superior generalization ability on the Waymo Open dataset.

In the context of personalized federated learning (FL), the critical challenge is to balance local model improvement and global model tuning when the personal and global objectives may not be exactly aligned. Inspired by Bayesian hierarchical models, we develop a self-aware personalized FL method where each client can automatically balance the training of its local personal model and the global model that implicitly contributes to other clients' training. Such a balance is derived from the inter-client and intra-client uncertainty quantification. A larger inter-client variation implies more personalization is needed. Correspondingly, our method uses uncertainty-driven local training steps and aggregation rule instead of conventional local fine-tuning and sample size-based aggregation. With experimental studies on synthetic data, Amazon Alexa audio data, and public datasets such as MNIST, FEMNIST, CIFAR10, and Sent140, we show that our proposed method can achieve significantly improved personalization performance compared with the existing counterparts.

Self-training has greatly facilitated domain adaptive semantic segmentation, which iteratively generates pseudo labels on unlabeled target data and retrains the network. However, realistic segmentation datasets are highly imbalanced, pseudo labels are typically biased to the majority classes and basically noisy, leading to an error-prone and suboptimal model. In this paper, we propose a simple region-based active learning approach for semantic segmentation under a domain shift, aiming to automatically query a small partition of image regions to be labeled while maximizing segmentation performance. Our algorithm, Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty (RIPU), introduces a new acquisition strategy characterizing the spatial adjacency of image regions along with the prediction confidence. We show that the proposed region-based selection strategy makes more efficient use of a limited budget than image-based or point-based counterparts. Further, we enforce local prediction consistency between a pixel and its nearest neighbors on a source image. Alongside, we develop a negative learning loss to make the features more discriminative. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method only requires very few annotations to almost reach the supervised performance and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RIPU.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Self-distillation has emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for LLMs, often improving performance while shortening reasoning traces. However, in mathematical reasoning, we find that it can reduce response length while degrading performance. We trace this degradation to the suppression of epistemic verbalization - the model's expression of uncertainty during reasoning. Through controlled experiments varying conditioning context richness and task coverage, we show that conditioning the teacher on rich information suppresses uncertainty expression, enabling rapid in-domain optimization with limited task coverage but harming OOD performance, where unseen problems benefit from expressing uncertainty and adjusting accordingly. Across Qwen3-8B, DeepSeek-Distill-Qwen-7B, and Olmo3-7B-Instruct, we observe performance drops of up to 40%. Our findings highlight that exposing appropriate levels of uncertainty is crucial for robust reasoning and underscore the importance of optimizing reasoning behavior beyond merely reinforcing correct answer traces.

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Cross-view localization, the task of estimating a camera's 3-degrees-of-freedom (3-DoF) pose by aligning ground-level images with satellite images, is crucial for large-scale outdoor applications like autonomous navigation and augmented reality. Existing methods often rely on fully supervised learning, which requires costly ground-truth pose annotations. In this work, we propose GeoDistill, a Geometry guided weakly supervised self distillation framework that uses teacher-student learning with Field-of-View (FoV)-based masking to enhance local feature learning for robust cross-view localization. In GeoDistill, the teacher model localizes a panoramic image, while the student model predicts locations from a limited FoV counterpart created by FoV-based masking. By aligning the student's predictions with those of the teacher, the student focuses on key features like lane lines and ignores textureless regions, such as roads. This results in more accurate predictions and reduced uncertainty, regardless of whether the query images are panoramas or limited FoV images. Our experiments show that GeoDistill significantly improves localization performance across different frameworks. Additionally, we introduce a novel orientation estimation network that predicts relative orientation without requiring precise planar position ground truth. GeoDistill provides a scalable and efficient solution for real-world cross-view localization challenges. Code and model can be found at https://github.com/tongshw/GeoDistill.

Large language models can arrive at the same answer through reasoning paths that are unstable, contradictory, or difficult to rank consistently -- a failure mode especially prevalent in multi-step deductive reasoning. Existing methods assess reliability primarily through output dispersion -- measuring how much sampled answers differ -- but this discards a complementary signal: whether the model can consistently rank competing reasoning candidates. We propose structural uncertainty, a consistency-aware framework derived from the stability of self-preference-induced rankings over sampled reasoning solutions. Given a query, we generate multiple candidate solutions and ask the model to judge pairwise preferences among its own outputs. We aggregate self-preferences into ranking distributions via Bradley-Terry modeling with PageRank, and decompose the signal into two entropy-based components: across-trial ranking instability and within-trial candidate ambiguity. Across five LLMs and eight benchmarks, structural signals provide information complementary to answer dispersion: on logical and mathematical reasoning tasks, the combination improves identification of unreliable instances, while on factual retrieval the structural signal collapses toward uniformity, diagnosing a regime boundary where reasoning-level consistency evaluation is uninformative. The two components relate differently to accuracy: within-trial ambiguity correlates positively with correctness -- consistent with settings where multiple plausible solution paths remain competitive -- while across-trial instability correlates negatively, signaling unreliable reasoning. Structural uncertainty is best understood not as a universal confidence estimator, but as a regime-sensitive evaluator of logical reasoning consistency.

Healthcare foundation models have largely followed paradigms from natural language processing and computer vision, emphasizing large scale pretraining and deterministic representations over heterogeneous clinical data. However, clinical observations are inherently incomplete, reflecting sparse, irregular, and modality dependent measurements of an underlying physiologic state. In this work, we propose a framework for uncertainty aware foundation modeling that represents each patient not as a point embedding, but as a distribution over plausible latent states. By learning set valued representations and enforcing consistency across partial views of the same patient, the model captures what is invariantly inferable while explicitly encoding epistemic uncertainty. We integrate this formulation with multimodal encoders and scalable self supervised objectives, combining reconstruction, contrastive alignment, and distributional regularization. Across diverse clinical tasks, our approach improves predictive performance, robustness under missing data, and uncertainty calibration relative to strong baselines. These results suggest that modeling what is not observed rather than only what is constitutes a critical inductive bias for healthcare foundation models.

Perceptual similarity scores that align with human vision are critical for both training and evaluating computer vision models. Deep perceptual losses, such as LPIPS, achieve good alignment but rely on complex, highly non-linear discriminative features with unknown invariances, while hand-crafted measures like SSIM are interpretable but miss key perceptual properties. We introduce the Structured Uncertainty Similarity Score (SUSS); it models each image through a set of perceptual components, each represented by a structured multivariate Normal distribution. These are trained in a generative, self-supervised manner to assign high likelihood to human-imperceptible augmentations. The final score is a weighted sum of component log-probabilities with weights learned from human perceptual datasets. Unlike feature-based methods, SUSS learns image-specific linear transformations of residuals in pixel space, enabling transparent inspection through decorrelated residuals and sampling. SUSS aligns closely with human perceptual judgments, shows strong perceptual calibration across diverse distortion types, and provides localized, interpretable explanations of its similarity assessments. We further demonstrate stable optimization behavior and competitive performance when using SUSS as a perceptual loss for downstream imaging tasks.

In this paper we apply self-knowledge distillation to text summarization which we argue can alleviate problems with maximum-likelihood training on single reference and noisy datasets. Instead of relying on one-hot annotation labels, our student summarization model is trained with guidance from a teacher which generates smoothed labels to help regularize training. Furthermore, to better model uncertainty during training, we introduce multiple noise signals for both teacher and student models. We demonstrate experimentally on three benchmarks that our framework boosts the performance of both pretrained and non-pretrained summarizers achieving state-of-the-art results.

Autonomous Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents rely on accurate GUI grounding, which maps language instructions to on-screen coordinates, to execute user commands. However, current models, whether trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), lack self-awareness of their capability boundaries, leading to overconfidence and unreliable predictions. We first systematically evaluate probabilistic and verbalized confidence in general and GUI-specific models, revealing a misalignment between confidence and actual accuracy, which is particularly critical in dynamic GUI automation tasks, where single errors can cause task failure. To address this, we propose HyperClick, a novel framework that enhances reliable GUI grounding through uncertainty calibration. HyperClick introduces a dual reward mechanism, combining a binary reward for correct actions with a truncated Gaussian-based spatial confidence modeling, calibrated using the Brier score. This approach jointly optimizes grounding accuracy and confidence reliability, fostering introspective self-criticism. Extensive experiments on seven challenge benchmarks show that HyperClick achieves state-of-the-art performance while providing well-calibrated confidence. By enabling explicit confidence calibration and introspective self-criticism, HyperClick reduces overconfidence and supports more reliable GUI automation.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly solve complex reasoning tasks via long chain-of-thought, but their forward-only autoregressive generation process is fragile; early token errors can cascade, which creates a clear need for self-reflection mechanisms. However, existing self-reflection either performs revisions over full drafts or learns self-correction via expensive training, both fundamentally reactive and inefficient. To address this, we propose Self-Reflective Generation at Test Time (SRGen), a lightweight test-time framework that reflects before generating at uncertain points. During token generation, SRGen utilizes dynamic entropy thresholding to identify high-uncertainty tokens. For each identified token, it trains a specific corrective vector, which fully exploits the already generated context for a self-reflective generation to correct the token probability distribution. By retrospectively analyzing the partial output, this self-reflection enables more trustworthy decisions, thereby significantly reducing the probability of errors at highly uncertain points. Evaluated on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks and a diverse set of LLMs, SRGen can consistently strengthen model reasoning: improvements in single-pass quality also translate into stronger self-consistency voting. Especially, on AIME2024 with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, SRGen yields absolute improvements of +12.0% on Pass@1 and +13.3% on Cons@5. Moreover, our findings position SRGen as a plug-and-play method that integrates reflection into the generation process for reliable LLM reasoning, achieving consistent gains with bounded overhead and broad composability with other training-time (e.g., RLHF) and test-time (e.g., SLOT) techniques.

Geo-localization is an essential component of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation systems to ensure precise absolute self-localization in outdoor environments. To address the challenges of GPS signal interruptions or low illumination, Thermal Geo-localization (TG) employs aerial thermal imagery to align with reference satellite maps to accurately determine the UAV's location. However, existing TG methods lack uncertainty measurement in their outputs, compromising system robustness in the presence of textureless or corrupted thermal images, self-similar or outdated satellite maps, geometric noises, or thermal images exceeding satellite maps. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents UASTHN, a novel approach for Uncertainty Estimation (UE) in Deep Homography Estimation (DHE) tasks for TG applications. Specifically, we introduce a novel Crop-based Test-Time Augmentation (CropTTA) strategy, which leverages the homography consensus of cropped image views to effectively measure data uncertainty. This approach is complemented by Deep Ensembles (DE) employed for model uncertainty, offering comparable performance with improved efficiency and seamless integration with any DHE model. Extensive experiments across multiple DHE models demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of CropTTA in TG applications. Analysis of detected failure cases underscores the improved reliability of CropTTA under challenging conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the capability of combining CropTTA and DE for a comprehensive assessment of both data and model uncertainty. Our research provides profound insights into the broader intersection of localization and uncertainty estimation. The code and models are publicly available.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) is a standard approach for representation learning in aerial imagery. Existing methods enforce invariance between augmented views, which works well when augmentations preserve semantic content. However, aerial images are frequently degraded by haze, motion blur, rain, and occlusion that remove critical evidence. Enforcing alignment between a clean and a severely degraded view can introduce spurious structure into the latent space. This study proposes a training strategy and architectural modification to enhance SSL robustness to such corruptions. It introduces a per-sample, per-factor trust weight into the alignment objective, combined with the base contrastive loss as an additive residual. A stop-gradient is applied to the trust weight instead of a multiplicative gate. While a multiplicative gate is a natural choice, experiments show it impairs the backbone, whereas our additive-residual approach improves it. Using a 200-epoch protocol on a 210,000-image corpus, the method achieves the highest mean linear-probe accuracy among six backbones on EuroSAT, AID, and NWPU-RESISC45 (90.20% compared to 88.46% for SimCLR and 89.82% for VICReg). It yields the largest improvements under severe information-erasing corruptions on EuroSAT (+19.9 points on haze at s=5 over SimCLR). The method also demonstrates consistent gains of +1 to +3 points in Mahalanobis AUROC on a zero-shot cross-domain stress test using BDD100K weather splits. Two ablations (scalar uncertainty and cosine gate) indicate the additive-residual formulation is the primary source of these improvements. An evidential variant using Dempster-Shafer fusion introduces interpretable signals of conflict and ignorance. These findings offer a concrete design principle for uncertainty-aware SSL. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/WadiiBoulila/trust-ssl.

Recent advances in autonomous driving are moving towards mapless approaches, where High-Definition (HD) maps are generated online directly from sensor data, reducing the need for expensive labeling and maintenance. However, the reliability of these online-generated maps remains uncertain. While incorporating map uncertainty into downstream trajectory prediction tasks has shown potential for performance improvements, current strategies provide limited insights into the specific scenarios where this uncertainty is beneficial. In this work, we first analyze the driving scenarios in which mapping uncertainty has the greatest positive impact on trajectory prediction and identify a critical, previously overlooked factor: the agent's kinematic state. Building on these insights, we propose a novel Proprioceptive Scenario Gating that adaptively integrates map uncertainty into trajectory prediction based on forecasts of the ego vehicle's future kinematics. This lightweight, self-supervised approach enhances the synergy between online mapping and trajectory prediction, providing interpretability around where uncertainty is advantageous and outperforming previous integration methods. Additionally, we introduce a Covariance-based Map Uncertainty approach that better aligns with map geometry, further improving trajectory prediction. Extensive ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of our approach, achieving up to 23.6% improvement in mapless trajectory prediction performance over the state-of-the-art method using the real-world nuScenes driving dataset. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Ethan-Zheng136/Map-Uncertainty-for-Trajectory-Prediction.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

We present a novel self-supervised algorithm named MotionHint for monocular visual odometry (VO) that takes motion constraints into account. A key aspect of our approach is to use an appropriate motion model that can help existing self-supervised monocular VO (SSM-VO) algorithms to overcome issues related to the local minima within their self-supervised loss functions. The motion model is expressed with a neural network named PPnet. It is trained to coarsely predict the next pose of the camera and the uncertainty of this prediction. Our self-supervised approach combines the original loss and the motion loss, which is the weighted difference between the prediction and the generated ego-motion. Taking two existing SSM-VO systems as our baseline, we evaluate our MotionHint algorithm on the standard KITTI benchmark. Experimental results show that our MotionHint algorithm can be easily applied to existing open-sourced state-of-the-art SSM-VO systems to greatly improve the performance by reducing the resulting ATE by up to 28.73%.

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely employed, recent research has demonstrated the limitations of using sequence-level probability estimates given by LLMs as reliable indicators of generation quality. Conversely, LLMs have demonstrated strong calibration at the token level, particularly when it comes to choosing correct answers in multiple-choice questions or evaluating true/false statements. In this work, we reformulate open-ended generation tasks into token-level prediction tasks, and leverage LLMs' superior calibration at the token level. We instruct an LLM to self-evaluate its answers, employing either a multi-way comparison or a point-wise evaluation approach, with the option to include a ``None of the above'' option to express the model's uncertainty explicitly. We benchmark a range of scoring methods based on self-evaluation and evaluate their performance in selective generation using TruthfulQA and TL;DR. Through experiments with PaLM-2 and GPT-3, we demonstrate that self-evaluation based scores not only improve accuracy, but also correlate better with the overall quality of generated content.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Machine learning in high-stakes domains such as healthcare requires not only strong predictive performance but also reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) to support human oversight. Multi-label text classification (MLTC) is a central task in this domain, yet remains challenging due to label imbalances, dependencies, and combinatorial complexity. Existing MLTC benchmarks are increasingly saturated and may be affected by training data contamination, making it difficult to distinguish genuine reasoning capabilities from memorization. We introduce MADE, a living MLTC benchmark derived from {m}edical device {ad}verse {e}vent reports and continuously updated with newly published reports to prevent contamination. MADE features a long-tailed distribution of hierarchical labels and enables reproducible evaluation with strict temporal splits. We establish baselines across more than 20 encoder- and decoder-only models under fine-tuning and few-shot settings (instruction-tuned/reasoning variants, local/API-accessible). We systematically assess entropy-/consistency-based and self-verbalized UQ methods. Results show clear trade-offs: smaller discriminatively fine-tuned decoders achieve the strongest head-to-tail accuracy while maintaining competitive UQ; generative fine-tuning delivers the most reliable UQ; large reasoning models improve performance on rare labels yet exhibit surprisingly weak UQ; and self-verbalized confidence is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty. Our work is publicly available at https://hhi.fraunhofer.de/aml-demonstrator/made-benchmark.

Ultra-long egocentric video understanding requires reasoning over temporally sparse evidence distributed across hours or days, challenging current multimodal models with limited context and the grounding of key video segments. While Chain-of-Tool-Thought (CoTT) agent systems enable iterative retrieval and inspection, they suffer from error propagation due to rigid zoom-in strategies that lack recovery mechanisms. In this work, we address these challenges through SCOUT (Self-Checking Chain-Of-Tool-thought), a recovery-aware agentic framework introducing an adaptive policy that evaluates intermediate tool observations and dynamically trades off exploitation (zoom-in) and exploration (region switching), enabling robust multi-hop reasoning over extremely long horizons. However, training such multi-turn tool-using agents remains challenging, as existing RL methods rely on sparse outcome-level rewards and lack supervision over extended decision trajectories, resulting in suboptimal credit assignment for long-horizon reasoning. To address this, we develop UPS-GRPO, an uncertainty-prioritized policy optimization method that concentrates exploration on high-uncertainty post-tool states while preserving sample efficiency. We further introduce a turn-level advantage decomposition that integrates outcome rewards with tool-grounded temporal alignment rewards for improved credit assignment. Experiments show that SCOUT achieves state-of-the-art results on ultra-long egocentric benchmarks, while remaining competitive on shorter-horizon long-video settings.

Large language model (LLM) agents can plan, use tools, maintain memory, and execute long-horizon tasks. This paper proposes Self-Aware Recursively Self-Improving (SARSI) agents: governed agents that maintain a persistent self-model of identity, goals, capabilities, limitations, uncertainty, relationships, history, and developmental change, and use that model to guide and evaluate recursive improvement. Self-awareness is defined functionally and does not imply subjective experience or phenomenal consciousness. We pair SARSI agents with personal singularity, a bounded human-AI co-development objective in which an agent ecosystem helps a user approach an expanding, user-defined feasible capability frontier. Each agent has a goal contract, bounded scope, validated tool registry, tool tests, end-to-end benchmarks, owner-controlled autonomy, routing, memory, self-model, and improvement policy. A scope router assigns every accepted task to one accountable primary agent and transfers out-of-scope work through structured handoffs. A user-facing Auto-Index selects interactive, hybrid, autonomous, or scheduled behavior without overriding external permissions. The architecture combines a planner-executor-verifier loop, an evidence-gated improvement loop, an external governance plane, decentralized lineages, an owner-directed agent foundry, and a Personal Singularity OS coordinating working, computational-imaging, work-process-learning, and personal-learning agents. We formalize functional self-awareness, scope, routing, improvement acceptance, bounded goal evolution, tool-first execution, and human capability transfer, and provide safety invariants, benchmark design, and a staged implementation roadmap. This is a position and systems-design paper, not evidence that consciousness, unrestricted recursive self-improvement, or personal singularity has been achieved.

Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality, outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10-20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The framework generalizes across five LLMs spanning two model families.

Jet tagging at the Large Hadron Collider increasingly relies on deep learning models trained on massive simulated datasets, leading to high computational costs and limited robustness to detector mismodeling. We introduce JetParticle-JEPA (JP-JEPA), a self-supervised Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture that learns physically meaningful jet representations directly from continuous particle clouds without tokenization or reconstruction of raw inputs. Built on a Particle Transformer backbone, JP-JEPA predicts latent representations of masked particles while preserving fine-grained kinematic correlations. On the JetClass benchmark, JP-JEPA achieves performance comparable to fully supervised state-of-the-art methods on the full dataset, surpasses supervised baselines in low-label regimes, and significantly outperforms existing SSL approaches. On Top Quark and Quark-Gluon Tagging benchmarks, it remains on par with supervised methods. The learned representations also exhibit strong robustness to missing detector information and improved uncertainty behavior, highlighting JP-JEPA as a promising foundation-model framework for robust and data-efficient jet physics at the LHC.

Same-model self-verification, prompting a model to audit its own predicted answer, is a plausible confidence signal for selective prediction, but its practical value remains unclear once strong likelihood-based baselines are taken seriously. We evaluate self-verification against two such baselines, LL-AVG and LL-SUM, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA-MC across multiple model families, scales, and prompt variants. We measure not only correctness ranking, but also abstention quality through AURC and operating-point analyses. The results are sharply task- and model-dependent. On ARC-Challenge, self-verification substantially improves over LL-AVG for Phi-2 and the Qwen models, with the largest gains appearing in Qwen-7B. On TruthfulQA-MC, however, the signal is less reliable: smaller models can become prompt-sensitive, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-8B degrades relative to LL-AVG, and LL-SUM often remains the stronger practical baseline. We therefore do not treat self-verification as a general-purpose uncertainty estimator. In this setting, it is better understood as a conditional confidence signal whose value depends on task type, model family, prompt formulation, and, crucially, the baseline it must beat.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce plausible but poorly-calibrated answers, limiting their reliability on reasoning-intensive tasks. We present Reinforcement Learning from Self-Feedback (RLSF), a post-training stage that uses the model's own confidence as an intrinsic reward, mimicking how humans learn in the absence of external feedback. After a frozen LLM generates several chain-of-thought solutions, we define and compute the confidence of each final answer span and rank the traces accordingly. These synthetic preferences are then used to fine-tune the policy with standard preference optimization, similar to RLHF yet requiring no human labels, gold answers, or externally curated rewards. RLSF simultaneously (i) refines the model's probability estimates -- restoring well-behaved calibration -- and (ii) strengthens step-by-step reasoning, yielding improved performance on arithmetic reasoning and multiple-choice question answering. By turning a model's own uncertainty into useful self-feedback, RLSF affirms reinforcement learning on intrinsic model behaviour as a principled and data-efficient component of the LLM post-training pipeline and warrents further research in intrinsic rewards for LLM post-training.

Quantifying uncertainty in black-box LLMs is vital for reliable responses and scalable oversight. Existing methods, which gauge a model's uncertainty through evaluating self-consistency in responses to the target query, can be misleading: an LLM may confidently provide an incorrect answer to a target query, yet give a confident and accurate answer to that same target query when answering a knowledge-preserving perturbation of the query. We systematically analyze the model behaviors and demonstrate that this discrepancy stems from suboptimal retrieval of parametric knowledge, often due to contextual biases that prevent consistent access to stored knowledge. We then introduce DiverseAgentEntropy, a novel, theoretically-grounded method employing multi-agent interaction across diverse query variations for uncertainty estimation of black-box LLMs. This approach more accurately assesses an LLM's true uncertainty and improves hallucination detection, outperforming existing self-consistency based techniques.

Object detection and multiple object tracking (MOT) are essential components of self-driving systems. Accurate detection and uncertainty quantification are both critical for onboard modules, such as perception, prediction, and planning, to improve the safety and robustness of autonomous vehicles. Collaborative object detection (COD) has been proposed to improve detection accuracy and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the viewpoints of multiple agents. However, little attention has been paid to how to leverage the uncertainty quantification from COD to enhance MOT performance. In this paper, as the first attempt to address this challenge, we design an uncertainty propagation framework called MOT-CUP. Our framework first quantifies the uncertainty of COD through direct modeling and conformal prediction, and propagates this uncertainty information into the motion prediction and association steps. MOT-CUP is designed to work with different collaborative object detectors and baseline MOT algorithms. We evaluate MOT-CUP on V2X-Sim, a comprehensive collaborative perception dataset, and demonstrate a 2% improvement in accuracy and a 2.67X reduction in uncertainty compared to the baselines, e.g. SORT and ByteTrack. In scenarios characterized by high occlusion levels, our MOT-CUP demonstrates a noteworthy 4.01% improvement in accuracy. MOT-CUP demonstrates the importance of uncertainty quantification in both COD and MOT, and provides the first attempt to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty in MOT based on COD through uncertainty propagation. Our code is public on https://coperception.github.io/MOT-CUP/.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs), which integrate a vision encoder (VE) with a large language model, have achieved remarkable success across various tasks. However, there are still crucial challenges in LVLMs such as object hallucination, generating descriptions of objects that are not in the input image. Here, we argue that uncertain visual tokens within the VE is a key factor that contributes to object hallucination. Our statistical analysis found that there are positive correlations between visual tokens with high epistemic uncertainty and the occurrence of hallucinations. Furthermore, we show theoretically and empirically that visual tokens in early VE layers that exhibit large representation deviations under small adversarial perturbations indicate high epistemic uncertainty. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective strategy to mitigate object hallucination by modifying the VE only. Our method comprises a proxy method with adversarial perturbations for identifying uncertain visual tokens efficiently and a method to mask these uncertain visual tokens during the self-attention process in the middle layers of the VE, suppressing their influence on visual encoding and thus alleviating hallucinations. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly reduces object hallucinations in LVLMs and can synergistically work with other prior arts.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

It is important for Large Language Models to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, the mechanism of identifying known and unknown queries. This type of awareness can help models perform adaptive inference, such as invoking RAG, engaging in slow and deep thinking, or adopting the abstention mechanism, which is beneficial to the development of efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which aims to determine if the model is able to address a given query without generating any tokens. To this end, we introduce a novel and training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens. Empirical results on both factual QA and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our internal confidence can outperform several baselines. Furthermore, we showcase that our proposed method can be used for efficient RAG and model cascading, which is able to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance.

Deep sequence models typically degrade in accuracy when test sequences significantly exceed their training lengths, yet many critical tasks--such as algorithmic reasoning, multi-step arithmetic, and compositional generalization--require robust length extrapolation. We introduce PRISM, a Probabilistic Relative-position Implicit Superposition Model, a novel positional encoding mechanism that enables Transformers to extrapolate accurately up to 10x beyond their training length. PRISM learns continuous relative positions through a differentiable histogram-filter update, preserving position uncertainty via a probabilistic superposition rather than conventional deterministic embeddings. Empirically, PRISM achieves state-of-the-art length extrapolation, successfully generalizing to previously intractable sequence lengths across algorithmic benchmarks--including arithmetic (addition, multiplication), SCAN compositionality tasks, and complex copy variants derived from DeepMind's recent datasets. Our analysis demonstrates that PRISM's stochastic positional encoding maintains sharp and interpretable internal states, providing a theoretical basis for reliable length generalization. These results advance the goal of neural sequence models that remain algorithmically robust at lengths far exceeding their training horizon.

Large Language models (LLMs) can generate complicated source code from natural language prompts. However, LLMs can generate output that deviates from what the user wants, requiring supervision and editing. To support this process, we offer techniques to localize where generations might be misaligned from user intent. We first create a dataset of "Minimal Intent Aligning Patches" of repaired LLM generated programs. Each program uses test cases to verify correctness. After creating a dataset of programs, we measure how well various techniques can assign a well-calibrated probability to indicate which parts of code will be edited in a minimal patch (i.e., give a probability that corresponds with empirical odds it is edited). We compare white-box probing (where we propose a technique for efficient arbitrary-span querying), against black-box reflective and self-consistency based approaches. We find probes with a small supervisor model can achieve low calibration error and Brier Skill Score of approx 0.2 estimating edited lines on code generated by models many orders of magnitude larger. We discuss the generalizability of the techniques, and the connections to AI oversight and control, finding a probe trained only on code shows some signs of generalizing to natural language errors if new probability scaling is allowed.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has shown significant promise for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, prevailing algorithms like GRPO broadcast a uniform advantage signal across all tokens in a sequence. This coarse-grained approach overlooks the pivotal role of uncertain, high-stakes decisions during reasoning, leading to inefficient exploration and the well-documented problem of entropy collapse. To address this, we introduce UnCertainty-aware Advantage Shaping (UCAS), a model-free method that refines credit assignment by leveraging the model's internal uncertainty signals. UCAS operates in two stages: it first modulates the response-level advantage using the model's overall self-confidence, and then applies a token-level penalty based on raw logit certainty. This dual mechanism encourages exploration of high-uncertainty paths that yield correct answers while penalizing overconfident yet erroneous reasoning, effectively balancing the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Extensive experiments on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that UCAS significantly outperforms strong RLVR baselines across multiple model scales, including 1.5B and 7B. Our analysis confirms that UCAS not only achieves higher rewards but also promotes greater reasoning diversity and successfully mitigates entropy collapse.

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.

Realistic virtual humans play a crucial role in numerous industries, such as metaverse, intelligent healthcare, and self-driving simulation. But creating them on a large scale with high levels of realism remains a challenge. The utilization of deep implicit function sparks a new era of image-based 3D clothed human reconstruction, enabling pixel-aligned shape recovery with fine details. Subsequently, the vast majority of works locate the surface by regressing the deterministic implicit value for each point. However, should all points be treated equally regardless of their proximity to the surface? In this paper, we propose replacing the implicit value with an adaptive uncertainty distribution, to differentiate between points based on their distance to the surface. This simple ``value to distribution'' transition yields significant improvements on nearly all the baselines. Furthermore, qualitative results demonstrate that the models trained using our uncertainty distribution loss, can capture more intricate wrinkles, and realistic limbs. Code and models are available for research purposes at https://github.com/psyai-net/D-IF_release.

Most recent test-time adaptation methods focus on only classification tasks, use specialized network architectures, destroy model calibration or rely on lightweight information from the source domain. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a novel Test-time Self-Learning method with automatic Adversarial augmentation dubbed TeSLA for adapting a pre-trained source model to the unlabeled streaming test data. In contrast to conventional self-learning methods based on cross-entropy, we introduce a new test-time loss function through an implicitly tight connection with the mutual information and online knowledge distillation. Furthermore, we propose a learnable efficient adversarial augmentation module that further enhances online knowledge distillation by simulating high entropy augmented images. Our method achieves state-of-the-art classification and segmentation results on several benchmarks and types of domain shifts, particularly on challenging measurement shifts of medical images. TeSLA also benefits from several desirable properties compared to competing methods in terms of calibration, uncertainty metrics, insensitivity to model architectures, and source training strategies, all supported by extensive ablations. Our code and models are available on GitHub.

We propose a method for jointly inferring labels across a collection of data samples, where each sample consists of an observation and a prior belief about the label. By implicitly assuming the existence of a generative model for which a differentiable predictor is the posterior, we derive a training objective that allows learning under weak beliefs. This formulation unifies various machine learning settings; the weak beliefs can come in the form of noisy or incomplete labels, likelihoods given by a different prediction mechanism on auxiliary input, or common-sense priors reflecting knowledge about the structure of the problem at hand. We demonstrate the proposed algorithms on diverse problems: classification with negative training examples, learning from rankings, weakly and self-supervised aerial imagery segmentation, co-segmentation of video frames, and coarsely supervised text classification.

While making a tremendous impact in various fields, deep neural networks usually require large amounts of labeled data for training which are expensive to collect in many applications, especially in the medical domain. Unlabeled data, on the other hand, is much more abundant. Semi-supervised learning techniques, such as co-training, could provide a powerful tool to leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, uncertainty-aware multi-view co-training (UMCT), to address semi-supervised learning on 3D data, such as volumetric data from medical imaging. In our work, co-training is achieved by exploiting multi-viewpoint consistency of 3D data. We generate different views by rotating or permuting the 3D data and utilize asymmetrical 3D kernels to encourage diversified features in different sub-networks. In addition, we propose an uncertainty-weighted label fusion mechanism to estimate the reliability of each view's prediction with Bayesian deep learning. As one view requires the supervision from other views in co-training, our self-adaptive approach computes a confidence score for the prediction of each unlabeled sample in order to assign a reliable pseudo label. Thus, our approach can take advantage of unlabeled data during training. We show the effectiveness of our proposed semi-supervised method on several public datasets from medical image segmentation tasks (NIH pancreas & LiTS liver tumor dataset). Meanwhile, a fully-supervised method based on our approach achieved state-of-the-art performances on both the LiTS liver tumor segmentation and the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) challenge, demonstrating the robustness and value of our framework, even when fully supervised training is feasible.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable and steadily improving performance across a wide range of tasks. However, LLM performance may be highly sensitive to prompt variations especially in scenarios with limited openness or strict output formatting requirements, indicating insufficient robustness. In real-world applications, user prompts provided to LLMs often contain imperfections, which may undermine the quality of the model's responses. To address this issue, previous work has primarily focused on preprocessing prompts, employing external tools or even LLMs to refine prompt formulations in advance. However, these approaches overlook the intrinsic robustness of LLMs, and their reliance on external components introduces additional computational overhead and uncertainty. In this work, we propose a Contrastive Learning-based Inverse Direct Preference Optimization (CoIPO) method that minimizes the discrepancy between the label-aligned logits produced by the model under a clean prompt and its noisy counterpart, and conduct a detailed analysis using mutual information theory. We augment the FLAN dataset by constructing paired prompts, each consisting of a clean prompt and its corresponding noisy version for training. Additionally, to evaluate the effectiveness, we develop NoisyPromptBench, a benchmark enhanced and derived from the existing PromptBench. Experimental results conducted on NoisyPromptBench demonstrate that our proposed method achieves a significant improvement in average accuracy over the current state-of-the-art approaches. The source code of CoIPO, pair-wise FLAN datasets, and NoisyPromptBench have already been released on https://github.com/vegetable-yx/CoIPO.

Metacognition is a critical component of intelligence that describes the ability to monitor and regulate one's own cognitive processes. Yet LLMs exhibit systemic deficiencies in key metacognitive faculties: they hallucinate with high confidence, fail to recognize knowledge boundaries, and misrepresent their internal uncertainty--undermining trustworthiness and reliability. Since monitoring task performance and adapting behavior accordingly are central to metacognition, we posit that models capable of accurately judging their own performance are better positioned to improve it. We operationalize this idea via two novel mechanisms: reinforcement learning with metacognitive feedback (RLMF), a paradigm to refine completion rankings during preference optimization based on the quality of a model's self-judgments of performance, and metacognitive data selection, which uses similar self-judgments to identify high-value training examples, outperforming naive active learning. We apply these innovations to the problem of faithful calibration (FC), a task that is itself fundamentally metacognitive: the goal is to align expressed with intrinsic uncertainty, difficult even for frontier LLMs. We adopt a two-stage, decoupled approach, first using these methods to calibrate the faithfulness of models' self-reported confidence scores, then mapping to natural, context-adaptable linguistic uncertainty via targeted output editing. Extensive experiments show RLMF achieves generalizable, state-of-the-art FC on diverse tasks while preserving accuracy. Further, RLMF surpasses standard RL by up to 63% while enhancing models' ability to assess and express their own capability limits. This positions RLMF as a promising paradigm to enhance LLM metacognition toward improved abilities and alignment, and suggests metacognitive performance as an effective RL signal to overcome limits of prior intrinsic feedback methods.

Test-time scaling for complex reasoning tasks shows that leveraging inference-time compute, by methods such as independently sampling and aggregating multiple solutions, results in significantly better task outcomes. However, a critical bottleneck is verification: sampling is only effective if correct solutions can be reliably identified among candidates. While existing approaches typically evaluate candidates independently via scalar scoring, we demonstrate that models are substantially stronger at pairwise self-verification. Leveraging this insight, we introduce V_1, a framework that unifies generation and verification through efficient pairwise ranking. V_1 comprises two components: V_1-Infer, an uncertainty-guided algorithm using a tournament-based ranking that dynamically allocates self-verification compute to candidate pairs whose relative correctness is most uncertain; and V_1-PairRL, an RL framework that jointly trains a single model as both generator and pairwise self-verifier, ensuring the verifier adapts to the generator's evolving distribution. On code generation (LiveCodeBench, CodeContests, SWE-Bench) and math reasoning (AIME, HMMT) benchmarks, V_1-Infer improves Pass@1 by up to 10% over pointwise verification and outperforms recent test-time scaling methods while being significantly more efficient. Furthermore, V_1-PairRL achieves 7--9% test-time scaling gains over standard RL and pointwise joint training, and improves base Pass@1 by up to 8.7% over standard RL in a code-generation setting.

As large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, and Gemini become integrated into software development workflows, developers increasingly leave traces of AI involvement in their code comments. Among these, some comments explicitly acknowledge both the use of generative AI and the presence of technical shortcomings. Analyzing 6,540 LLM-referencing code comments from public Python and JavaScript-based GitHub repositories (November 2022-July 2025), we identified 81 that also self-admit technical debt(SATD). Developers most often describe postponed testing, incomplete adaptation, and limited understanding of AI-generated code, suggesting that AI assistance affects both when and why technical debt emerges. We term GenAI-Induced Self-admitted Technical debt (GIST) as a proposed conceptual lens to describe recurring cases where developers incorporate AI-generated code while explicitly expressing uncertainty about its behavior or correctness.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

The Optical Character Recognition (OCR) task is important for evaluating Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and providing high-quality data sources for LLM training data. While state-of-the-art VLMs show improved average OCR accuracy, they still struggle with sample-level quality degradation and lack reliable automatic detection of low-quality outputs. We introduce Consensus Entropy (CE), a training-free post-inference method that quantifies OCR uncertainty by aggregating outputs from multiple VLMs. Our approach exploits a key insight: correct VLM OCR predictions converge in output space while errors diverge. We develop a lightweight multi-model framework that effectively identifies problematic samples, selects the best outputs and combines model strengths. Experiments across multiple OCR benchmarks and VLMs demonstrate that CE outperforms VLM-as-judge approaches and single-model baselines at the same cost and achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple metrics. For instance, our solution demonstrates: achieving 15.2% higher F1 scores than VLM-as-judge methods in quality verification, delivering 6.0% accuracy gains on mathematical calculation tasks, and requiring rephrasing only 7.3% of inputs while maintaining overall performance. Notably, the entire process requires neither training nor supervision while maintaining plug-and-play functionality throughout.

Light curves describe temporal variations in the brightness of celestial objects. Learning robust representations of light curves is essential for large-scale automatic discovery in the dynamic universe, but existing time-series foundation models often struggle with the uneven sampling, complex noise, and wide range of physical timescales that characterize astronomical observations. We propose a domain-informed representation learning framework for irregular astronomical time series with Joint-Embedding predictive architecture (JEPA), combining semantics-preserving views, uncertainty-aware tokenization, and multi-view self-distillation. The encoders are trained with multi-view self-distillation using LeJEPA regularization on the LEAVES dataset and evaluated on the StarEmbed classification benchmark. On StarEmbed, our model outperforms hand-crafted features on 15 of 16 classification metrics. In few-shot linear probing, it achieves macro-F1 scores of 42.56 pm 7.21 with one sample per class and 63.58 pm 1.20 with 100 samples per class, consistently improving over hand-crafted features. Beyond variable-star classification, the learned representation supports similarity search, parameter estimation, and photometric zero-point drift detection. We further evaluate cross-domain adaptation on 12 heterogeneous irregular time-series datasets from PYRREGULAR, where the adapted variant matches or exceeds previous state-of-the-art performance on 5 datasets, compared with at most 3 wins by any single prior baseline. These results demonstrate that domain-informed multi-view self-distillation is an effective strategy for learning representations of irregular time series, while also highlighting that successful time-series representation learning requires domain-specific inductive biases rather than a universally optimal architecture.

Evaluating generalist robot manipulation policies in the real world is expensive, slow, and difficult to scale. Action-conditioned video world models offer a scalable alternative by simulating policy rollouts. Autoregressive rollouts accumulate compounding errors, observations across multiple camera views must remain mutually consistent, and the evaluator must generalize to policies whose behaviors lie outside the training distribution. We address these challenges with SC3-Eval, a self-consistent video generation recipe that adapts a pre-trained video foundation model into an accurate policy evaluator by enforcing three complementary forms of consistency. First, forward-inverse dynamics consistency jointly trains the model to predict frames from actions and to recover actions from frames, anchoring generated rollouts to a physically plausible action manifold and counteracting the drift a forward-only model cannot penalize. Second, cross-view consistency trains the model to inpaint each camera view from the other, keeping the multi-camera observation coherent over long rollouts without any explicit memory mechanism. Third, test-time consistency reuses the inverse dynamics mode at inference as a per-action-chunk uncertainty signal that terminates rollouts whose generated frames drift away from the requested actions. We also demonstrate SC3-Eval rollouts reproduce the failure modes that policies exhibit in real-world rollouts, supporting fine-grained diagnostic comparison rather than aggregate ranking alone. Across seven real-world vision-language-action policies, SC3-Eval attains a closed-loop Pearson correlation of 0.929 and MMRV of 0.119, outperforming three strong prior video-model-based baselines, and generalizes to new tasks.

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is an emerging LLM post-training paradigm in which the model serves as its own teacher: conditioned on privileged information such as a reference trace or hint, the same policy provides dense token-level supervision on its own rollouts. However, recent studies show that OPSD degrades complex reasoning by suppressing predictive uncertainty, which supports exploration and hypothesis revision. Our token-level analysis shows that this failure arises from applying a uniform direction of teacher supervision across tokens with different uncertainty levels: conformity to the privileged self-teacher suppresses exploration at high entropy, while deviation from the teacher degrades step accuracy at low entropy. Accordingly, we propose Direction-Adaptive Self-Distillation (DASD), which reframes privileged self-distillation from uniform teacher imitation into entropy-routed directional supervision: high-entropy tokens are pushed away from the privileged teacher to preserve exploration, while low-entropy tokens are pulled toward the teacher to stabilize step-level execution. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, DASD achieves the best macro Avg@16 over strong RLVR and self-distillation baselines. Pass@k, reasoning-health, and generalization analyses show that these average gains come from preserving exploration without sacrificing step-level execution.

Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) is at the core of training modern large machine learning models, providing a scheme for learning powerful representations that can be used in a variety of downstream tasks. However, SSL strategies must be adapted to the type of training data and downstream tasks required. We propose RS3L ("Re-simulation-based self-supervised representation learning"), a novel simulation-based SSL strategy that employs a method of re-simulation to drive data augmentation for contrastive learning in the physical sciences, particularly, in fields that rely on stochastic simulators. By intervening in the middle of the simulation process and re-running simulation components downstream of the intervention, we generate multiple realizations of an event, thus producing a set of augmentations covering all physics-driven variations available in the simulator. Using experiments from high-energy physics, we explore how this strategy may enable the development of a foundation model; we show how RS3L pre-training enables powerful performance in downstream tasks such as discrimination of a variety of objects and uncertainty mitigation. In addition to our results, we make the RS3L dataset publicly available for further studies on how to improve SSL strategies.

Advancing LLM reasoning skills has captivated wide interest. However, current post-training techniques rely heavily on supervisory signals, such as outcome supervision or auxiliary reward models, which face the problem of scalability and high annotation costs. This motivates us to enhance LLM reasoning without the need for external supervision. We introduce a generalizable and purely unsupervised self-training framework, named Genius. Without external auxiliary, Genius requires to seek the optimal response sequence in a stepwise manner and optimize the LLM. To explore the potential steps and exploit the optimal ones, Genius introduces a stepwise foresight re-sampling strategy to sample and estimate the step value by simulating future outcomes. Further, we recognize that the unsupervised setting inevitably induces the intrinsic noise and uncertainty. To provide a robust optimization, we propose an advantage-calibrated optimization (ACO) loss function to mitigate estimation inconsistencies. Combining these techniques together, Genius provides an advanced initial step towards self-improve LLM reasoning with general queries and without supervision, revolutionizing reasoning scaling laws given the vast availability of general queries. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/Genius.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has empowered Large Language Models (LLMs) to master autonomous search for complex question answering. However, particularly within multi-turn search scenarios, this interaction introduces a critical challenge: search results often suffer from high redundancy and low signal-to-noise ratios. Consequently, agents easily fall into "Tunnel Vision," where the forced interpretation of early noisy retrievals leads to irreversible error accumulation. To address these challenges, we propose SIGHT, a framework that enhances search-based reasoning through Self-Evidence Support (SES) and Information-Gain Driven Diverse Branching. SIGHT distills search results into high-fidelity evidence via SES and calculates an Information Gain score to pinpoint pivotal states where observations maximally reduce uncertainty. This score guides Dynamic Prompting Interventions - including de-duplication, reflection, or adaptive branching - to spawn new branches with SES. Finally, by integrating SES and correctness rewards via Group Relative Policy Optimization, SIGHT internalizes robust exploration strategies without external verifiers. Experiments on single-hop and multi-hop QA benchmarks demonstrate that SIGHT significantly outperforms existing approaches, particularly in complex reasoning scenarios, using fewer search steps.

Solving complex tasks usually requires LLMs to generate long multi-step reasoning chains. Previous work has shown that verifying the correctness of individual reasoning steps can further improve the performance and efficiency of LLMs on such tasks and enhance solution interpretability. However, existing verification approaches, such as Process Reward Models (PRMs), are either computationally expensive, limited to specific domains, or require large-scale human or model-generated annotations. Thus, we propose a lightweight alternative for step-level reasoning verification based on data-driven uncertainty scores. We train transformer-based uncertainty quantification heads (UHeads) that use the internal states of a frozen LLM to estimate the uncertainty of its reasoning steps during generation. The approach is fully automatic: target labels are generated either by another larger LLM (e.g., DeepSeek R1) or in a self-supervised manner by the original model itself. UHeads are both effective and lightweight, containing less than 10M parameters. Across multiple domains, including mathematics, planning, and general knowledge question answering, they match or even surpass the performance of PRMs that are up to 810x larger. Our findings suggest that the internal states of LLMs encode their uncertainty and can serve as reliable signals for reasoning verification, offering a promising direction toward scalable and generalizable introspective LLMs.

LLMs often exhibit Aha moments during reasoning, such as apparent self-correction following tokens like "Wait," yet their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We introduce an information-theoretic framework that decomposes reasoning into procedural information and epistemic verbalization - the explicit externalization of uncertainty that supports downstream control actions. We show that purely procedural reasoning can become informationally stagnant, whereas epistemic verbalization enables continued information acquisition and is critical for achieving information sufficiency. Empirical results demonstrate that strong reasoning performance is driven by uncertainty externalization rather than specific surface tokens. Our framework unifies prior findings on Aha moments and post-training experiments, and offers insights for future reasoning model design.

Existing embodied instance goal navigation tasks, driven by natural language, assume human users to provide complete and nuanced instance descriptions prior to the navigation, which can be impractical in the real world as human instructions might be brief and ambiguous. To bridge this gap, we propose a new task, Collaborative Instance Navigation (CoIN), with dynamic agent-human interaction during navigation to actively resolve uncertainties about the target instance in natural, template-free, open-ended dialogues. To address CoIN, we propose a novel method, Agent-user Interaction with UncerTainty Awareness (AIUTA), leveraging the perception capability of Vision Language Models (VLMs) and the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs). First, upon object detection, a Self-Questioner model initiates a self-dialogue to obtain a complete and accurate observation description, while a novel uncertainty estimation technique mitigates inaccurate VLM perception. Then, an Interaction Trigger module determines whether to ask a question to the user, continue or halt navigation, minimizing user input. For evaluation, we introduce CoIN-Bench, a benchmark supporting both real and simulated humans. AIUTA achieves competitive performance in instance navigation against state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating great flexibility in handling user inputs.

Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent reasoning traces that nevertheless lead to incorrect answers, making response-level uncertainty estimation important for abstention, human review, and adaptive compute allocation. Existing approaches generally fall into three categories: passive single-trace methods use token-level confidence signals, sampling-based methods compare multiple complete traces at higher generation cost, and active prefix-based methods probe partial traces to study answer stabilization or preference transitions. However, none actively re-elicits an answer from a completed reasoning trace to measure its consistency with and support for the original answer. To address this gap, we introduce Trace-Conditioned Answer Consistency (TrAC), a correctness-supervised uncertainty quantification framework that combines active and passive signals anchored to one completed reasoning trace. Its active component, Prefix-Conditioned Elicitation (PCE), re-elicits a short answer conditioned on the completed trace and represents both its consistency with the original answer and its token-level probabilistic support. Its passive component, Trace Uncertainty Profile (TUP), summarizes how token-level uncertainty evolves throughout the original generation without additional decoding. A lightweight head then integrates the two representations into a response-correctness score. Across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks and three LLM families, TrAC improves macro AUROC by 1.8% and reduces AURC by 3.4% relative to eight-sample self-consistency, while using one complete reasoning trace and a short cached answer probe. When eight samples are already available, augmenting sample consensus with re-elicitation further improves macro AUROC by 4.3% and reduces AURC by 8.3%, without additional full-trace generation.

An utterance-level speaker embedding is typically obtained by aggregating a sequence of frame-level representations. However, in real-world scenarios, individual frames encode not only speaker-relevant information but also various nuisance factors. As a result, different frames contribute unequally to the final utterance-level speaker representation for Automatic Speaker Verification systems. To address this issue, we propose to estimate the inherent uncertainty of each frame and assign adaptive weights accordingly, where frames with higher uncertainty receive lower attention. Based on this idea, we present U3-xi, a comprehensive framework designed to produce more reliable and interpretable uncertainty estimates for speaker embeddings. Specifically, we introduce several strategies for uncertainty supervision. First, we propose speaker-level uncertainty supervision via a Stochastic Variance Loss, where the distance between an utterance embedding and its corresponding speaker centroid serves as a pseudo ground truth for uncertainty learning. Second, we incorporate global-level uncertainty supervision by injecting the predicted uncertainty into the sof tmax scale during training. This adaptive scaling mechanism adjusts the sharpness of the decision boundary according to sample difficulty, providing global guidance. Third, we redesign the uncertainty estimation module by integrating a Transformer encoder with multi-view self-attention, enabling the model to capture rich local and long-range temporal dependencies. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that U3-xi is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to various speaker encoders. In particular, when applied to ECAPA-TDNN, it achieves 21.1% and 15.57% relative improvements on the VoxCeleb1 test sets in terms of EER and minDCF, respectively.

Large language models (LLMs) often present answers with high apparent confidence despite lacking an explicit mechanism for reasoning about certainty or truth. While existing benchmarks primarily evaluate single-turn accuracy, truthfulness or confidence calibration, they do not capture how models behave when their responses are challenged in interactive settings. We introduce the Certainty Robustness Benchmark, a two-turn evaluation framework that measures how LLMs balance stability and adaptability under self-challenging prompts such as uncertainty ("Are you sure?") and explicit contradiction ("You are wrong!"), alongside numeric confidence elicitation. Using 200 reasoning and mathematics questions from LiveBench, we evaluate four state-of-the-art LLMs and distinguish between justified self-corrections and unjustified answer changes. Our results reveal substantial differences in interactive reliability that are not explained by baseline accuracy alone: some models abandon correct answers under conversational pressure, while others demonstrate strong resistance to challenge and better alignment between confidence and correctness. These findings identify certainty robustness as a distinct and critical dimension of LLM evaluation, with important implications for alignment, trustworthiness and real-world deployment.

Factual hallucination remains a central challenge for large language models (LLMs). Existing mitigation approaches primarily rely on either external post-hoc verification or mapping uncertainty directly to abstention during fine-tuning, often resulting in overly conservative behavior. We propose VeriFY, a training-time framework that teaches LLMs to reason about factual uncertainty through consistency-based self-verification. VeriFY augments training with structured verification traces that guide the model to produce an initial answer, generate and answer a probing verification query, issue a consistency judgment, and then decide whether to answer or abstain. To address the risk of reinforcing hallucinated content when training on augmented traces, we introduce a stage-level loss masking approach that excludes hallucinated answer stages from the training objective while preserving supervision over verification behavior. Across multiple model families and scales, VeriFY reduces factual hallucination rates by 9.7 to 53.3 percent, with only modest reductions in recall (0.4 to 5.7 percent), and generalizes across datasets when trained on a single source. The source code, training data, and trained model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.

The availability of clean and diverse labeled data is a major roadblock for training models on complex tasks such as visual question answering (VQA). The extensive work on large vision-and-language models has shown that self-supervised learning is effective for pretraining multimodal interactions. In this technical report, we focus on visual representations. We review and evaluate self-supervised methods to leverage unlabeled images and pretrain a model, which we then fine-tune on a custom VQA task that allows controlled evaluation and diagnosis. We compare energy-based models (EBMs) with contrastive learning (CL). While EBMs are growing in popularity, they lack an evaluation on downstream tasks. We find that both EBMs and CL can learn representations from unlabeled images that enable training a VQA model on very little annotated data. In a simple setting similar to CLEVR, we find that CL representations also improve systematic generalization, and even match the performance of representations from a larger, supervised, ImageNet-pretrained model. However, we find EBMs to be difficult to train because of instabilities and high variability in their results. Although EBMs prove useful for OOD detection, other results on supervised energy-based training and uncertainty calibration are largely negative. Overall, CL currently seems a preferable option over EBMs.

The mathematical problem-solving capabilities of large language models have become a focal point of research, with growing interests in leveraging self-generated reasoning paths as a promising way to refine and enhance these models. These paths capture step-by-step logical processes while requiring only the correct answer for supervision. The self-training method has been shown to be effective in reasoning tasks while eliminating the need for external models and manual annotations. However, optimizing the use of self-generated data for model training remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose Entropy-Based Adaptive Weighting for Self-Training (EAST), an adaptive weighting strategy designed to prioritize uncertain data during self-training. Specifically, EAST employs a mapping function with a tunable parameter that controls the sharpness of the weighting, assigning higher weights to data where the model exhibits greater uncertainty. This approach guides the model to focus on more informative and challenging examples, thereby enhancing its reasoning ability. We evaluate our approach on GSM8K and MATH benchmarks. Empirical results show that, while the vanilla method yields virtually no improvement (0%) on MATH, EAST achieves around a 1% gain over backbone model. On GSM8K, EAST attains a further 1-2% performance boost compared to the vanilla method.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

The goal of No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) is to estimate the perceptual image quality in accordance with subjective evaluations, it is a complex and unsolved problem due to the absence of the pristine reference image. In this paper, we propose a novel model to address the NR-IQA task by leveraging a hybrid approach that benefits from Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and self-attention mechanism in Transformers to extract both local and non-local features from the input image. We capture local structure information of the image via CNNs, then to circumvent the locality bias among the extracted CNNs features and obtain a non-local representation of the image, we utilize Transformers on the extracted features where we model them as a sequential input to the Transformer model. Furthermore, to improve the monotonicity correlation between the subjective and objective scores, we utilize the relative distance information among the images within each batch and enforce the relative ranking among them. Last but not least, we observe that the performance of NR-IQA models degrades when we apply equivariant transformations (e.g. horizontal flipping) to the inputs. Therefore, we propose a method that leverages self-consistency as a source of self-supervision to improve the robustness of NRIQA models. Specifically, we enforce self-consistency between the outputs of our quality assessment model for each image and its transformation (horizontally flipped) to utilize the rich self-supervisory information and reduce the uncertainty of the model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our work, we evaluate it on seven standard IQA datasets (both synthetic and authentic) and show that our model achieves state-of-the-art results on various datasets.

Existing benchmarks for Large Language Model (LLM) agents focus on task completion under idealistic settings but overlook reliability in real-world, user-facing applications. In domains, such as in-car voice assistants, users often issue incomplete or ambiguous requests, creating intrinsic uncertainty that agents must manage through dialogue, tool use, and policy adherence. We introduce CAR-bench, a benchmark for evaluating consistency, uncertainty handling, and capability awareness in multi-turn, tool-using LLM agents in an in-car assistant domain. The environment features an LLM-simulated user, domain policies, and 58 interconnected tools spanning navigation, productivity, charging, and vehicle control. Beyond standard task completion, CAR-bench introduces Hallucination tasks that test agents' limit-awareness under missing tools or information, and Disambiguation tasks that require resolving uncertainty through clarification or internal information gathering. Baseline results reveal large gaps between occasional and consistent success on all task types. Even frontier reasoning LLMs achieve less than 50% consistent pass rate on Disambiguation tasks due to premature actions, and frequently violate policies or fabricate information to satisfy user requests in Hallucination tasks, underscoring the need for more reliable and self-aware LLM agents in real-world settings.

This paper attempts to analyze the effectiveness of deep learning for tabular data processing. It is believed that decision trees and their ensembles is the leading method in this domain, and deep neural networks must be content with computer vision and so on. But the deep neural network is a framework for building gradient-based hierarchical representations, and this key feature should be able to provide the best processing of generic structured (tabular) data, not just image matrices and audio spectrograms. This problem is considered through the prism of the Weather Prediction track in the Yandex Shifts challenge (in other words, the Yandex Shifts Weather task). This task is a variant of the classical tabular data regression problem. It is also connected with another important problem: generalization and uncertainty in machine learning. This paper proposes an end-to-end algorithm for solving the problem of regression with uncertainty on tabular data, which is based on the combination of four ideas: 1) deep ensemble of self-normalizing neural networks, 2) regression as parameter estimation of the Gaussian target error distribution, 3) hierarchical multitask learning, and 4) simple data preprocessing. Three modifications of the proposed algorithm form the top-3 leaderboard of the Yandex Shifts Weather challenge respectively. This paper considers that this success has occurred due to the fundamental properties of the deep learning algorithm, and tries to prove this.

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) trains a student on its own rollouts using a privileged teacher, but its standard objective weights all generated tokens equally, implicitly treating the privileged teacher target as equally reliable at every student-visited prefix. Existing entropy-based OPD methods relax this uniformity by modulating token-level supervision with teacher entropy, but high teacher entropy in reasoning has an ambiguous reliability meaning: it can reflect either non-viable uncertainty or benign solution diversity. To identify this phenomenon, we introduce a branch-viability diagnostic. Specifically, we record next-token alternatives from the privileged-answer teacher prompt, force each alternative after the student prompt plus its on-policy spine prefix, and test whether the resulting student-template continuation recovers the correct answer. On Qwen3-4B, we find that an oriented within-sequence position score is the strongest tested predictor of teacher-token reliability, reaching an area-under-ROC-curve (AUROC) of 0.83; local uncertainty scores are at most 0.57. Motivated by this trajectory-level structure, we propose Position-Weighted On-Policy Self-Distillation (PW-OPSD), which applies an increasing position weight while keeping the same student rollout, privileged teacher pass, and clipped forward-KL target as OPSD. In our comprehensive evaluations with different random seeds, the diagnostic-derived PW-OPSD improves AIME 2024 and AIME 2025 Avg@12 by +1.0 and +1.1 points, and a generalization evaluation on two larger-scale models from different families, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Think, also demonstrates consistent aggregate Avg@12 improvements. These results show that teacher-token reliability in reasoning distillation is trajectory-structured and can be utilized without additional teacher computation.

Most unified large multimodal models (LMMs) that support both visual understanding and image generation still rely on curated post-training supervision, such as human annotations, preference labels, or external reward models. We ask whether a unified LMM can improve both abilities autonomously using only unlabeled images. We propose a self-evolving training framework with three internal roles: a Proposer that generates visual questions, a Solver that answers and evaluates them, and a Generator that synthesizes images. Training uses only self-derived consistency signals, without human annotations, preference labels, or task-trained external reward/judge models. To stabilize learning, we introduce Solver Token Entropy (STE), a continuous difficulty signal based on token-level prediction uncertainty that remains useful even when sample-level consistency becomes unreliable. For image generation, we design a multi-scale internal evaluation scheme that combines question-answer fidelity scoring with cycle-consistent captioning. This creates a solver-mediated coupling, where better visual understanding enables more reliable generation assessment and stronger internal training signals. The framework preserves the same role decomposition, reward logic, and training schedule across diffusion-based BLIP3o, rectified-flow BAGEL, and autoregressive VARGPT-v1.1 architectures, requiring only each backbone's native prompting and generation interface. Across eight understanding metrics, our method consistently improves over the corresponding base models. On BAGEL, it achieves a +3.5% absolute gain on MMMU and improves GenEval image generation performance from 82% to 85%. Code and models are publicly released.

Recent advancements in multimodal large language models have enhanced document understanding by integrating textual and visual information. However, existing models exhibit incompleteness within their paradigm in real-world scenarios, particularly under visual degradation. In such conditions, the current response paradigm often fails to adequately perceive visual degradation and ambiguity, leading to overreliance on linguistic priors or misaligned visual-textual reasoning. This difficulty in recognizing uncertainty frequently results in the generation of hallucinatory content, especially when a precise answer is not feasible. To better demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon and problem, we propose KIE-HVQA, the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating OCR hallucination in degraded document understanding. This dataset includes test samples spanning identity cards and invoices, with simulated real-world degradations for OCR reliability. This setup allows for evaluating models' capacity, under degraded input, to distinguish reliable visual information and answer accordingly, thereby highlighting the challenge of avoiding hallucination on uncertain data. To achieve vision-faithful reasoning and thereby avoid the aforementioned issues, we further introduce a GRPO-based framework featuring a novel reward mechanism. By incorporating a self-awareness of visual uncertainty and an analysis method that initiates refusal to answer to increase task difficulty within our supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning framework, we successfully mitigated hallucinations in ambiguous regions. Experiments on Qwen2.5-VL demonstrate that our 7B-parameter model achieves a 22\% absolute improvement in hallucination-free accuracy over GPT-4o on KIE-HVQA and there is no significant performance drop in standard tasks, highlighting both effectiveness and robustness.

Self-paced learning and hard example mining re-weight training instances to improve learning accuracy. This paper presents two improved alternatives based on lightweight estimates of sample uncertainty in stochastic gradient descent (SGD): the variance in predicted probability of the correct class across iterations of mini-batch SGD, and the proximity of the correct class probability to the decision threshold. Extensive experimental results on six datasets show that our methods reliably improve accuracy in various network architectures, including additional gains on top of other popular training techniques, such as residual learning, momentum, ADAM, batch normalization, dropout, and distillation.

Self-supervised learning is a promising paradigm in deep learning that enables learning from unlabeled data by constructing pretext tasks that require learning useful representations. In natural language processing, the dominant pretext task has been masked language modeling (MLM), while in computer vision there exists an equivalent called Masked Image Modeling (MIM). However, MIM is challenging because it requires predicting semantic content in accurate locations. E.g, given an incomplete picture of a dog, we can guess that there is a tail, but we cannot determine its exact location. In this work, we propose FlexPredict, a stochastic model that addresses this challenge by incorporating location uncertainty into the model. Specifically, we condition the model on stochastic masked token positions to guide the model toward learning features that are more robust to location uncertainties. Our approach improves downstream performance on a range of tasks, e.g, compared to MIM baselines, FlexPredict boosts ImageNet linear probing by 1.6% with ViT-B and by 2.5% for semi-supervised video segmentation using ViT-L.

Vision-language models (VLMs) frequently generate hallucinated content plausible but incorrect claims about image content. We propose a training-free self-correction framework enabling VLMs to iteratively refine responses through uncertainty-guided visual re-attention. Our method combines multidimensional uncertainty quantification (token entropy, attention dispersion, semantic consistency, claim confidence) with attention-guided cropping of under-explored regions. Operating entirely with frozen, pretrained VLMs, our framework requires no gradient updates. We validate our approach on the POPE and MMHAL BENCH benchmarks using the Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23] architecture. Experimental results demonstrate that our method reduces hallucination rates by 9.8 percentage points compared to the baseline, while improving object existence accuracy by 4.7 points on adversarial splits. Furthermore, qualitative analysis confirms that uncertainty-guided re-attention successfully grounds corrections in visual evidence where standard decoding fails. We validate our approach on Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23], with plans to extend validation across diverse architectures in future versions. We release our code and methodology to facilitate future research in trustworthy multimodal systems.

This paper extends Cross Modal Generalization (CMG) to open-set environments by proposing the more challenging Open-set Cross Modal Generalization (OSCMG) task. This task evaluates multimodal unified representations in open-set conditions, addressing the limitations of prior closed-set cross-modal evaluations. OSCMG requires not only cross-modal knowledge transfer but also robust generalization to unseen classes within new modalities, a scenario frequently encountered in real-world applications. Existing multimodal unified representation work lacks consideration for open-set environments. To tackle this, we propose MICU, comprising two key components: Fine-Coarse Masked multimodal InfoNCE (FCMI) and Cross modal Unified Jigsaw Puzzles (CUJP). FCMI enhances multimodal alignment by applying contrastive learning at both holistic semantic and temporal levels, incorporating masking to enhance generalization. CUJP enhances feature diversity and model uncertainty by integrating modality-agnostic feature selection with self-supervised learning, thereby strengthening the model's ability to handle unknown categories in open-set tasks. Extensive experiments on CMG and the newly proposed OSCMG validate the effectiveness of our approach. The code is available at https://github.com/haihuangcode/CMG.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

LLM agents that operate over long context depend on external memory to accumulate knowledge over time. However, existing methods typically store each observation as a single deterministic conclusion (e.g., inferring "API~X failed" from temporary errors), even though such observations are inherently partial and potentially ambiguous. By committing to one conclusion and discarding uncertainty, these methods introduce self-reinforcing error: the agent acts on the stored conclusion, never revisits alternatives, and reinforces the conclusion over time. To address this issue, we propose BeliefMem, which shifts the memory paradigm from committing to a single conclusion per observation to retaining multiple candidate conclusions with their probabilities. Concretely, BeliefMem stores the candidate conclusions as separate memory entries, each carrying a probability that is updated via Noisy-OR rules as new observations arrive. At retrieval, all candidates surface together with their probabilities, keeping alternatives visible to the agent. Since each conclusion in memory retains its probability, BeliefMem preserves the uncertainty that the deterministic paradigm discards, enabling the agent to act with high confidence on well-evidenced knowledge while retaining the capacity to update its confidence when new evidence arrives. Empirical evaluations on LoCoMo and ALFWorld benchmarks show that, even with limited data, BeliefMem achieves the best average performance, remarkably outperforming well-known baselines. More broadly, such probabilistic memory produces substantial gains and explores a new direction for agent memory in partially observable environments.

We set out to train behavioral dispositions (self-verification, uncertainty acknowledgment, feedback integration) into small language models (0.6B to 2.3B effective parameters) through a four-stage all-MIT distillation pipeline, with follow-on experiments on inference-time attention-head interventions and a frozen-base confidence-gated sidecar. An internal draft reported +33.9-point MCAS and +15.3-point HumanEval gains on a Qwen3-0.6B student; a second-pass sanity check falsified both numbers before publication. The HumanEval delta was a truncation artifact (n_predict=512) that inverted to -8.0 points at n_predict=1024; the MCAS gain disappeared under apples-to-apples scoring. That falsification triggered three subsequent arcs. Across (1) SFT/DPO LoRA on three model families and two domains, (2) inference-time attention-head tempering on o_proj, and (3) a training-free frozen-base sidecar reading the final-token hidden state h_last, we find no operator that moves judge-measured disposition without damaging content or collapsing into stylistic mimicry. The failure is consistent across five models (Qwen3-0.6B, Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3.5-0.8B, Gemma 4 E2B, and SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct). A within-distribution cross-validation pass (AUC=0.683) collapsed to chance on fresh prompts (AUC=0.516). We contribute a three-arc negative result with mechanism, a two-failure-mode taxonomy for linear h_last probes, and an honest falsification pipeline that converts the class of false positives we ourselves produced into publishable negatives. As an independent finding, Gemma 4 E2B exhibits near-complete confidence-correctness decoupling on the Chef domain (assertion asymmetry -0.009; the model asserts at 91% regardless of correctness).

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their vast knowledge, LLMs are still limited by the amount of information they can accommodate and comprehend. Therefore, the ability to understand their own limitations on the unknows, referred to as self-knowledge, is of paramount importance. This study aims to evaluate LLMs' self-knowledge by assessing their ability to identify unanswerable or unknowable questions. We introduce an automated methodology to detect uncertainty in the responses of these models, providing a novel measure of their self-knowledge. We further introduce a unique dataset, SelfAware, consisting of unanswerable questions from five diverse categories and their answerable counterparts. Our extensive analysis, involving 20 LLMs including GPT-3, InstructGPT, and LLaMA, discovering an intrinsic capacity for self-knowledge within these models. Moreover, we demonstrate that in-context learning and instruction tuning can further enhance this self-knowledge. Despite this promising insight, our findings also highlight a considerable gap between the capabilities of these models and human proficiency in recognizing the limits of their knowledge.

Knowledge hallucination have raised widespread concerns for the security and reliability of deployed LLMs. Previous efforts in detecting hallucinations have been employed at logit-level uncertainty estimation or language-level self-consistency evaluation, where the semantic information is inevitably lost during the token-decoding procedure. Thus, we propose to explore the dense semantic information retained within LLMs' INternal States for hallucInation DEtection (INSIDE). In particular, a simple yet effective EigenScore metric is proposed to better evaluate responses' self-consistency, which exploits the eigenvalues of responses' covariance matrix to measure the semantic consistency/diversity in the dense embedding space. Furthermore, from the perspective of self-consistent hallucination detection, a test time feature clipping approach is explored to truncate extreme activations in the internal states, which reduces overconfident generations and potentially benefits the detection of overconfident hallucinations. Extensive experiments and ablation studies are performed on several popular LLMs and question-answering (QA) benchmarks, showing the effectiveness of our proposal.

Designing robotic agents to perform open vocabulary tasks has been the long-standing goal in robotics and AI. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive results in creating robotic agents for performing open vocabulary tasks. However, planning for these tasks in the presence of uncertainties is challenging as it requires chain-of-thought reasoning, aggregating information from the environment, updating state estimates, and generating actions based on the updated state estimates. In this paper, we present an interactive planning technique for partially observable tasks using LLMs. In the proposed method, an LLM is used to collect missing information from the environment using a robot and infer the state of the underlying problem from collected observations while guiding the robot to perform the required actions. We also use a fine-tuned Llama 2 model via self-instruct and compare its performance against a pre-trained LLM like GPT-4. Results are demonstrated on several tasks in simulation as well as real-world environments. A video describing our work along with some results could be found here.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

In text-to-video (T2V) generation, significant attention has been directed toward its development, yet unifying discrete and continuous grounding conditions in T2V generation remains under-explored. This paper proposes a Grounded text-to-Video generation framework, termed GVDIFF. First, we inject the grounding condition into the self-attention through an uncertainty-based representation to explicitly guide the focus of the network. Second, we introduce a spatial-temporal grounding layer that connects the grounding condition with target objects and enables the model with the grounded generation capacity in the spatial-temporal domain. Third, our dynamic gate network adaptively skips the redundant grounding process to selectively extract grounding information and semantics while improving efficiency. We extensively evaluate the grounded generation capacity of GVDIFF and demonstrate its versatility in applications, including long-range video generation, sequential prompts, and object-specific editing.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Until recently, the success of large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) has primarily relied on billion-sample datasets, posing a significant barrier to progress. Latest works have begun to close this gap by improving supervision quality, but each addresses only a subset of the weaknesses in contrastive pretraining. We present GoldiCLIP, a framework built on a Goldilocks principle of finding the right balance of supervision signals. Our multifaceted training framework synergistically combines three key innovations: (1) a text-conditioned self-distillation method to align both text-agnostic and text-conditioned features; (2) an encoder integrated decoder with Visual Question Answering (VQA) objective that enables the encoder to generalize beyond the caption-like queries; and (3) an uncertainty-based weighting mechanism that automatically balances all heterogeneous losses. Trained on just 30 million images, 300x less data than leading methods, GoldiCLIP achieves state-of-the-art among data-efficient approaches, improving over the best comparable baseline by 2.2 points on MSCOCO retrieval, 2.0 on fine-grained retrieval, and 5.9 on question-based retrieval, while remaining competitive with billion-scale models. Project page: https://petsi.uk/goldiclip.

Class-agnostic object detection (OD) can be a cornerstone or a bottleneck for many downstream vision tasks. Despite considerable advancements in bottom-up and multi-object discovery methods that leverage basic visual cues to identify salient objects, consistently achieving a high recall rate remains difficult due to the diversity of object types and their contextual complexity. In this work, we investigate using vision-language models (VLMs) to enhance object detection via a self-supervised prompt learning strategy. Our initial findings indicate that manually crafted text queries often result in undetected objects, primarily because detection confidence diminishes when the query words exhibit semantic overlap. To address this, we propose a Dispersing Prompt Expansion (DiPEx) approach. DiPEx progressively learns to expand a set of distinct, non-overlapping hyperspherical prompts to enhance recall rates, thereby improving performance in downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution OD. Specifically, DiPEx initiates the process by self-training generic parent prompts and selecting the one with the highest semantic uncertainty for further expansion. The resulting child prompts are expected to inherit semantics from their parent prompts while capturing more fine-grained semantics. We apply dispersion losses to ensure high inter-class discrepancy among child prompts while preserving semantic consistency between parent-child prompt pairs. To prevent excessive growth of the prompt sets, we utilize the maximum angular coverage (MAC) of the semantic space as a criterion for early termination. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DiPEx through extensive class-agnostic OD and OOD-OD experiments on MS-COCO and LVIS, surpassing other prompting methods by up to 20.1\% in AR and achieving a 21.3\% AP improvement over SAM. The code is available at https://github.com/jason-lim26/DiPEx.

The autoregressive world model exhibits robust generalization capabilities in vectorized scene understanding but encounters difficulties in deriving actions due to insufficient uncertainty modeling and self-delusion. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of deriving decisions from an autoregressive world model by addressing these challenges through the formulation of multiple probabilistic hypotheses. We propose LatentDriver, a framework models the environment's next states and the ego vehicle's possible actions as a mixture distribution, from which a deterministic control signal is then derived. By incorporating mixture modeling, the stochastic nature of decisionmaking is captured. Additionally, the self-delusion problem is mitigated by providing intermediate actions sampled from a distribution to the world model. Experimental results on the recently released close-loop benchmark Waymax demonstrate that LatentDriver surpasses state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods, achieving expert-level performance. The code and models will be made available at https://github.com/Sephirex-X/LatentDriver.

Sequential Recommenders generate recommendations based on users' historical interaction sequences. However, in practice, these collected sequences are often contaminated by noisy interactions, which significantly impairs recommendation performance. Accurately identifying such noisy interactions without additional information is particularly challenging due to the absence of explicit supervisory signals indicating noise. Large Language Models (LLMs), equipped with extensive open knowledge and semantic reasoning abilities, offer a promising avenue to bridge this information gap. However, employing LLMs for denoising in sequential recommendation presents notable challenges: 1) Direct application of pretrained LLMs may not be competent for the denoising task, frequently generating nonsensical responses; 2) Even after fine-tuning, the reliability of LLM outputs remains questionable, especially given the complexity of the denoising task and the inherent hallucinatory issue of LLMs. To tackle these challenges, we propose LLM4DSR, a tailored approach for denoising sequential recommendation using LLMs. We constructed a self-supervised fine-tuning task to activate LLMs' capabilities to identify noisy items and suggest replacements. Furthermore, we developed an uncertainty estimation module that ensures only high-confidence responses are utilized for sequence corrections. Remarkably, LLM4DSR is model-agnostic, allowing corrected sequences to be flexibly applied across various recommendation models. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of LLM4DSR over existing methods.

Air pollution is a crucial issue affecting human health and livelihoods, as well as one of the barriers to economic and social growth. Forecasting air quality has become an increasingly important endeavor with significant social impacts, especially in emerging countries like China. In this paper, we present a novel Transformer architecture termed AirFormer to collectively predict nationwide air quality in China, with an unprecedented fine spatial granularity covering thousands of locations. AirFormer decouples the learning process into two stages -- 1) a bottom-up deterministic stage that contains two new types of self-attention mechanisms to efficiently learn spatio-temporal representations; 2) a top-down stochastic stage with latent variables to capture the intrinsic uncertainty of air quality data. We evaluate AirFormer with 4-year data from 1,085 stations in the Chinese Mainland. Compared to the state-of-the-art model, AirFormer reduces prediction errors by 5%~8% on 72-hour future predictions. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yoshall/airformer.