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Update tools/forecaster.py
Browse files- tools/forecaster.py +29 -35
tools/forecaster.py
CHANGED
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@@ -6,61 +6,55 @@ import plotly.graph_objects as go
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def forecast_metric_tool(file_path: str, date_col: str, value_col: str):
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"""
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Forecast next 3 periods for any numeric metric,
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"""
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# 1) Load & parse
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df = pd.read_csv(file_path)
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try:
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df[date_col] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col])
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except Exception:
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return f"❌ Could not parse '{date_col}' as dates."
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# 2) Coerce metric to numeric & drop invalid
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df[value_col] = pd.to_numeric(df[value_col], errors="coerce")
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df = df.dropna(subset=[date_col, value_col])
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if df.empty:
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return f"❌ No valid data for '{value_col}'."
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# 3) Sort
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df = df.sort_values(date_col)
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freq = pd.infer_freq(df.index)
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if freq is None:
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# fallback to daily
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freq = "D"
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df = df.asfreq(freq)
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#
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try:
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model = ARIMA(df[value_col], order=(1, 1, 1))
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model_fit = model.fit()
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except Exception as e:
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return f"❌ ARIMA fitting failed: {e}"
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#
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fc_res = model_fit.get_forecast(steps=3)
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forecast = fc_res.predicted_mean #
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#
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fig = go.Figure()
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fig.add_scatter(
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mode="lines", name=value_col
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)
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fig.add_scatter(
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x=forecast.index, y=forecast,
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mode="lines+markers", name="Forecast"
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)
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fig.update_layout(
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title=f"{value_col} Forecast",
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xaxis_title=
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yaxis_title=
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template="plotly_dark"
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)
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fig.write_image("forecast_plot.png")
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#
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return tbl.to_string()
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def forecast_metric_tool(file_path: str, date_col: str, value_col: str):
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"""
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Forecast next 3 periods for any numeric metric, saving
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the PNG under /tmp and returning the forecast table as text.
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"""
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# 1) Load & parse dates
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df = pd.read_csv(file_path)
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try:
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df[date_col] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col])
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except Exception:
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return f"❌ Could not parse '{date_col}' as dates."
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# 2) Coerce metric to numeric & drop invalid rows
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df[value_col] = pd.to_numeric(df[value_col], errors="coerce")
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df = df.dropna(subset=[date_col, value_col])
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if df.empty:
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return f"❌ No valid data for '{value_col}'."
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# 3) Sort by date, set index, then collapse any duplicate timestamps
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df = df.sort_values(date_col).set_index(date_col)
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# If you have multiple rows for the same timestamp, take their mean
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df = df[[value_col]].groupby(level=0).mean()
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# 4) Infer frequency (e.g. 'D', 'M', etc.) and reindex
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freq = pd.infer_freq(df.index)
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if freq is None:
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freq = "D" # fallback to daily
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df = df.asfreq(freq)
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# 5) Fit ARIMA
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try:
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model = ARIMA(df[value_col], order=(1, 1, 1))
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model_fit = model.fit()
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except Exception as e:
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return f"❌ ARIMA fitting failed: {e}"
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# 6) Forecast with a proper DatetimeIndex
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fc_res = model_fit.get_forecast(steps=3)
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forecast = fc_res.predicted_mean # pd.Series indexed by future dates
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# 7) Plot history + forecast
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fig = go.Figure()
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fig.add_scatter(x=df.index, y=df[value_col], mode="lines", name=value_col)
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fig.add_scatter(x=forecast.index, y=forecast, mode="lines+markers", name="Forecast")
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fig.update_layout(
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title=f"{value_col} Forecast",
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xaxis_title=date_col,
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yaxis_title=value_col,
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template="plotly_dark",
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)
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fig.write_image("forecast_plot.png") # safely lands in /tmp via monkey-patch
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# 8) Return the forecast table as plain text
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return forecast.to_frame(name="Forecast").to_string()
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